Conference games kick off today for the Big 12 Conference, which means we no longer have to judge the race based on common games against St. Mary’s State Technical College University. Here’s a brief rundown of the games headed your way. (All times are central.)

Oklahoma (8-4) at Texas Tech (11-4), 12:30 PM
This game is the most compelling in today’s B12 slate, although in the grand scheme of things it really just amounts to which of the “south division” teams is fourth-best. I haven’t had a chance to see either team yet this year, but neither has been especially spectacular. Tech has been playing better lately, though, winning against both Arkansas and a scrappy Bucknell team.
The pick: Tech wins by single digits

Iowa State (9-5) at Missouri (11-2), 5 PM
Mizzou should win this one going away, especially in front of their hardcore fans. Sophomore Matt Lawrence is my favorite Tiger to watch. He’s an absolute three-point machine, as he’s hit 54% of his trey attempts. No word yet on if he could nail a 30-footer over Kevin Durant for a lead with 11 seconds left.
The pick: Missouri cruises

Baylor (10-3) at Oklahoma State (14-1), 5 PM
Poor, poor Baylor. They get to play a non-conference schedule after last year’s ridiculous sanction and get to open their Big 12 sked with the hottest team in the conference. Oy vey. Sure, the Bears have a great record heading into it, but they’ve been beaten by the three real teams they’ve played and earned the wins against a schedule that even Dennis Franchione would call soft.
The pick: Scott Drew’s eyes go glassy by halftime. OSU rolls

Nebraska plays an out-of-conference game today with Western Kentucky. Kansas is idle today, but faces a good road test in South Carolina against the Gamecocks tomorrow.

As for today’s Colorado-Texas tilt…
The pick: Texas makes it closer than it should be, but starts conference play with a win

The Texas Longhorns (10-3) open their Big 12 slate tomorrow in Boulder against the struggling Colorado Buffaloes (4-6). The hosts come into the match-up as losers of four of their last six games, including three home losses to Wyoming, Pepperdine, and Colorado State.

The weather in the Denver area has been abysmal the past few days, as yet another storm dropped up to a foot of snow in some areas. Hopefully the weather will keep some of the CU fans at home, considering the struggles Texas has had in Boulder. Two years ago, the Buffaloes knocked off Texas 88-79. Even the Final Four team in 2003 struggled at the Coors Event Center, taking one of their only seven losses on the year, 93-80. While Colorado has been drawing less than 3,000 per game at home, an even lighter crowd than usual can only help the Longhorns’ chances in an arena that has all kinds of bad juju.

This season appears to be an opportunity for the Horns to reverse the trend, as Colorado has failed to find any consistency in the first half of the year. As usual, their star player is junior Richard Roby, who some thought might try to make the leap to the NBA in June. Instead, he returned for a third year in which he is averaging a shade under 18 points a game while playing thirty minutes for coach Ricardo Patton. After that, the offense drops off. Senior guard Dominique Coleman is the team’s second-highest scorer at only 10.9 per game

Their leading rebounders are forwards Jermyl Jackson-Wilson and Jeremy Wilson, who are combining for 13 boards a game. Jackson-Wilson is also the team’s leading blocker, as he’s swatted eighteen so far this season. And if Colorado has done one thing well in this disappointing year, it’s block shots — the Buffs are logging 5.4 a game so far. Unfortunately for them, this will likely be negated by a Texas team that has 84 blocks of their own.

The 2005 win in Boulder was keyed by a hot-shooting Colorado club that was absolutely burying its threes. This year, that shouldn’t be much of a problem. The Buffs are hitting only 27.9% of their three point attempts, including Roby’s abysmal 23.4% behind the arc. Despite Roby’s struggles, he has jacked up the most threes for Colorado. I have no problem seeing the defense let him take those shots until he proves that he can hit.

Colorado has also struggled handling the ball, turning it over seventeen times while only recording fourteen assists a game. Once again, it looks like a key for Texas will be forcing turnovers and scoring points in the transition game. And by key, I don’t actually think this is so paramount that we’ll lose if we fail to do it. But with this young group of Horns, I’m never sure what is going to happen until the final horn sounds.

While stats and trends from past years are never a good indicator of how current teams will fare, consider this fun little tidbit: Rick Barnes has never lost a Big 12 conference opener in his eight years, while CU’s Patton sports a 1-9 mark….and that one win came all the way back in 1996.

So with all that said, what’s most important for Texas tomorrow?

1. Show up to the gym
2. Play at their talent level, not down to the opposition’s

Ta-da! It’s that easy. And so when CU officials put out a press release on their website today suggesting fans “assess travel conditions and exercise good judgment and caution,” the message was clear — “Stay home, because we’d rather not have our fans witness this one.”

The first twenty minutes of Tuesday night’s game against UT-Arlington certainly seemed like an uncomfortable rehash of last week’s ugly win over Centenary. And with seventeen minutes to play, the upset-minded Mavericks even had the Longhorn lead down to six. But talent and size proved the difference for Texas, as they overtook the lead in rebounds and put the game well out of reach. After forty minutes, Rick Barnes’ squad had notched a solid 84-52 win.

Texas (10-3) came out nearly as cold as they had in the Centenary game just five days prior. While the Horns had opened 2-for-12 against the Gents, they managed to be a tad better against the UTA Mavericks, starting 2-for-8 from the field. D.J. Augustin was one Horn who was able to get going early, hitting two three pointers in the first five minutes. But Augustin would not score another basket until the seventeen-minute mark of the second half.

UT-Arlington was able to control the rebounding margin for much of the game, despite being a significantly smaller team. As Texas was able to close that gap and ultimately dominate the statistical category, the Longhorns were able to put the game easily in hand. As we head towards conference play and tougher, bigger teams, we will have to be able to stay competitive on the glass. We won’t likely win the battle every night, but we need to be able to avoid getting absolutely pounded and giving up uncontested second-chance points like we did during the first half of the UTA game.

I was most impressed by Arlington’s Jermaine Griffin. Despite his horribly cheesy bicep bands, he had a very good inside game. Unfortunately for Griffin, his free throw shooting wasn’t nearly as good. He finished 2-of-11 from the line, yet still had sixteen points on the night. If he can improve his FT percentage to something above the Mendoza line, he could be a power for the Mavs in their conference stretch.

Kevin Durant followed up a great performance against Centenary with another magnificent game. He dropped 21 points and ripped down fifteen boards, giving him an amazing 42 points and 32 rebounds in his last 64 minutes on the floor. Every game that I see him in, I can’t believe that a player of this caliber is on the court in burnt orange and white. He’s going to carry this team to some wins over the next two months that we probably shouldn’t have.

The team was really active defensively, with Durant blocking four shots and Connor Atchley adding three of his own. Atchley continued to look good on defense, if you can overlook a few dumb fouls. The three personals limited Connor to fifteen minutes in the game, and is something he’ll need to continue to work on. But his defense has come so far from the guy that teams could immediately pick on when he entered the game, and he will play a key role in the Big 12 matchups.

At this point, I’m a bit buzzed on Shiner and I’m not sure what is making sense and what is even spelled correctly. And I guess in theory I should get rest before another eight hours on the road tomorrow. But suffice it to say that I’m happy with this team. We’ve got an insane amount of talent and we’re going to be in fine shape when Selection Sunday rolls around. Sure, we’re going to lose some stupid games over the next two months, and that will without a doubt be frustrating. But I think we’ve got a shot in every contest, and that makes it fun to head to the arena twice a week.

Have a great Friday, and I’ll bring you a Colorado preview from somwhere in Denver on Friday night.

Tonight’s update comes from Wichita, Kansas, where the road ahead does not look friendly. Denver is under a “snow and blowing snow advisory” and should be covered with four to eight inches of fresh snow by the time we arrive tomorrow afternoon. The forecast looks good for Saturday, so we shouldn’t be stuck in the city afterwards. Unless, of course, the third blizzard in as many weeks decides to bitchslap the mile-high city.

I never put an open thread up for Denver suggestions, so if anybody happens to have any, feel free to drop them here. I’ll have a Texas-Arlington wrap for you shortly.

With conference play just days away, one might think that Texas could overlook UT-Arlington tonight and only win by, say…..20 points instead of thirty. But after last Thursday’s ugly win over Centenary, I have to think that Coach Barnes will have the team ready to completely mudhole the Mavericks.

UTA is having a rough season. Coming into the game with a 4-7 record, the Mavs were most recently beaten by the UT-Dallas Comets. Unfortunatly for UTA, the Comets are a Division III team.

The high point for the Mavs this season was taking TCU to double overtime before ultimately losing. I suppose you could make an argument for one of their four wins being the high point, but I think a 2OT loss to a real team is a little more prestigious than wins over UT-Pan American and Texas-Tyler…..which, coincidentally, I just learned is a college.

UT-Arlington plays with a pretty deep bench, allowing only one player to average over thirty minutes a game. That one man is junior guard Rodrick Epps, who averages nine points and four assists per game.

Their team appears to be pretty small, the second-straight opponent that Texas has faced with a….height deficiency. Once again, we can look for the Horns to dominate on the boards and convert that into a ton of second-chance points.

Hopefully we can build an early lead in this cupcake game and get our reserves the late, uninterrpted playing time we weren’t able to give them in the Centenary match-up. In short, look for Ian Mooney to play about 35 minutes in this one and score seventeen points. Or maybe just five minutes and one point.

Get out to the Erwin Center tonight if you’ve got a chance. There will be a ton of seats available, and if last week was any indication, saying the game is on FSN doesn’t actually guarantee you can see it Austin. See y’all at the drum.

If you look solely at the number, Kevin Durant had a great game for the Longhorns on Thursday night against Centenary. Not to take anything away from KD’s solid 21-point, seventeen-rebound performance, but the game was anything but great for Texas. After a gutsy win over Arkansas and a tough road loss to Tennessee, this was the proverbial letdown game. Fortunately, it came against a team without the talent to convert that letdown into an upset. Coach Rick Barnes did in fact earn his 200th victory on the 40 Acres, but it came in an ugly 76-66 win over the Centenary Gents.

Texas (9-3) trailed Centenary at the under-twelve TV timeout. But beside that “early” deficit, Texas was never in danger of losing to the Gents. They were, however, completely mailing it in. The crowd was flat, the team was flat, and the game was ugly. The Horns had sixteen turnovers to only seventeen assists, just five days after turning the ball over only three times in the first half against a pressuring Tennessee squad.

Barnes had a quick hook throughout the game, constantly pulling players who had screwed up to give them some advice on the sideline. And while it’s certainly nice to be able to do that against the crappy teams and disrupt the flow of the game without ever risking a loss, it definitely isn’t much fun to watch for the fans. For a statistical example of how much Coach was shuffling the lineups, just take a gander at the minutes played — Durant had the most with 31, while reserves Matt Hill and Craig Winder played fifteen and eleven.

If we’re looking for positives in this steaming pile of blandness, it appeared that D.J. Augustin was back to 100% after the cramps in Tennessee that hampered his drives to the basket. And the Horns dominated the glass as they should’ve against the much smaller Gents, logging a 45-30 advantage in the rebounding department. Harrison Smith saw a full five minutes of play in the game, which is great for a guy who hardly gets to see the floor.

Otherwise, I’d rather just forget about this one. Chalk up another win for the Horns in their quest for another 20-victory season. But let’s just move on to UT-Arlington and look forward to conference play on Saturday.

It feels a bit weird writing this a full week and a half after the Tennessee game and five days after the team sleepwalked through the Centenary matchup, but the loss last Saturday in Knoxville was actually a huge step for the program.

Sure, the Horns blew a second-half lead of seventeen points, invcluding an abortion of clock management with 1:35 to go and a seven point advantage. And the argument could be made that Texas actually took its biggest strides in the victory over LSU. But teams learn the most from losses, and I think that is why we’ll be looking back in March and pointing to this game as the turning point.

Despite the game being two days before Christmas, the Volunteer fans showed up en masse. And they were loud. Very, very loud. And while many of their fans apparently don’t know much about the game of basketball — most were booing and bitching about calls despite Texas having eight team fouls to their three at one point in the second-half — they were devoted and cheered with intense fervor. Coming out of halftime, with their team down fifteen, Thompson-Boling Arena sounded more like there were two seconds left in a tie game.

The Vols made a brief spurt to cut the lead to ten, but Texas pushed it back out to the aforementioned seventeen-point cushion. The second half saw a change in tempo and styles as the refs called a much tighter ballgame. Justin Mason fouled out, and KD picked up his fourth. D.J. Augustin cramped up, and Atchley joined Jay Mase on the bench with five fouls. But without two of our core players, two others seeing limited minutes, and a crowd that was living and dying on every play, Texas still found itself ahead by eight with 2:30 on the clock.

Then everything melted down. And I’ll only briefly touch on that. Yes, A.J. and Durant took ill-advised shots early in the possession and failed to milk the clock. But Coach Barnes does a great job at teaching the team how to handle itself in random late-game situations (see: the half-court pass, timeout, and three-pointer at Tech in 2003 or 2004.) I have no doubt that Coach rectified the situation immediately when the team returned to practice the day after Christmas.

But the main point in all of this is that if you ignore the meltdown in the final minutes, an extremely young Texas team held its own in a hostile road environment without many of its key players. J.D. Lewis — J.D. Freakin Lewis! — was relied on for key minutes, and actually provided. Dexter Pittman saw more playing time than anybody could have possibly guessed he’d see against Tennessee’s up-tempo game. Yet Texas was in a position to win.

This is going to be huge when the Horns have to play in places like Norman, Stillwater, College Station, and Lubbock. I’d add Lawrence to the mix, but nothing can truly prepare a player for what it’s like inside Allen Fieldhouse on gameday. And of course, I’m not sure if anybody can take down this year’s KU team on their own floor……..oh, wait. My apologies to Oral Roberts.

What Texas takes away from this is that they can play with anybody in any situation. And when you consider the schedule that followed/follows the Tennessee game, I think this is going to be a key stretch for the Horns. Thursday night they took out Centenary, and tonight will likely steamroll UTA. Their first conference road test is against lowly Colorado, and then they get both Mizzou and OU at home. While the Tigers are certainly capable of an upset at the Frank Erwin Center — and OU could be as well, if a “perfect storm” of variables come together — this is a chance for Texas to rip off five wins in a row before their brutal OSU-Villanova-Nebraksa road stretch over an eight day period. Win two of those three, and Texas will be riding high as they head into the crunch time of February.

So, sure — you can be frustrated over the loss to the Vols. I know I definitely was, although that passed after ten or fifteen minutes. But give it just a few more weeks, and we’ll be talking about how this game was truly a sign of things to come….if you just ignore that little mark in the loss column.