In a busy Saturday packed full of games with huge NCAA implications, the Texas Longhorns tackle their toughest test of the season. Situated squarely on the bubble, the young Horns will be facing a top-five Kansas team on Senior Night, in front of a crowd thirsty for revenge after Texas snapped their 69-game home winning streak last January. If those subplots weren’t enough to create an electric atmosphere in Lawrence tonight, the Jayhawks are also still playing for the right to be bracketed into the geographically-favorable St. Louis regional of the NCAA tournament.

For the Longhorns, the one positive is that there is practically no one outside of the team and staff that is giving them much of a chance to win tonight. With other bubble teams dropping games this afternoon against much weaker competition than Kansas, a loss tonight would not be crippling for Texas. On the other hand, a victory that shocks the nation would almost certainly punch a ticket to the NCAAs for the Horns.

Meet the Jayhawks

For an in-depth look at the Kansas roster and style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns fell behind early when they hosted Kansas on January 21st, managing just nine points in the game’s first 12 minutes. The Jayhawks carried a 12-point lead to the locker room, powered by Tyshawn Taylor’s 12-point, four-assist first half. On the other side of the ball, J’Covan Brown struggled for Texas, going just 1-for-8 from the field in the first half.

After the break, Kansas built their lead back out to 15 points on a pair of free throws and a three-pointer from Taylor, but the Longhorn defense dug in their heels after that. Texas held Kansas to just 33% shooting from the field in the second half and slowly chipped away at the lead, finally taking an advantage of their own when Clint Chapman sank two free throws with 5:39 to play.

The Longhorns extended the lead to four points on a Brown triple with 3:21 to go, but they could not manage another basket the rest of the way. Kansas, meanwhile, executed down the stretch, going ahead for good on a Jeff Withey three-point play with 37 seconds left. Brown had two chances to tie the game in the final minute, missing a leaner with 15 seconds left and a three-pointer with less than two seconds to go.

Kansas escaped Austin with a 69-66 win and moved to 7-0 in conference play, while the Longhorns missed one of many opportunities to log a signature victory.

Since then…

The Jayhawks have been practically unstoppable en route to their eighth-consecutive Big 12 crown, falling only in road games at Iowa State and Missouri. Junior big man Jeff Withey has been a big part of that success, as his offensive game has developed nicely in Big 12 play. Already known for his shot-blocking abilities, Withey has upped his scoring average to 11.4 points over his last 14 games. If not for two terrible performances against Missouri — he scored a combined two points and grabbed just five boards versus the Tigers — those numbers would be even more impressive.

Last weekend, Kansas was down 19 points at home to Missouri in what might have been the final installment of the Border War. In front of a frenzied home crowd, the Jayhawks stormed back to force overtime and knock off their hated rivals, locking up another league title as Thomas Robinson made a strong case for national Player of the Year honors. T-Rob posted a mammoth 28-point, 12-rebound line, while Taylor scored 24 points, including four big triples.

While the top two seeds in the Big 12 Championship have already been decided, Mizzou and Kansas are still battling for the right to play their second weekend of the NCAA tournament in St. Louis. Thanks to the pod system, both teams will get to play close to home in Omaha for the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but only one can land the coveted St. Louis regional. A potential rubber match between the two rivals in the conference tournament could be the deciding factor.

Keys to the game

1) Weather the storm – The Longhorns have dug themselves some big holes this season, and almost always rally back to make things interesting. In an environment like Allen Fieldhouse, that could be very difficult, especially for a young team like Texas. The closest thing to the Phog that these six freshmen have seen was the Dean Dome, and things got out of hand quickly in that blowout loss to UNC. If Texas wants to have any chance at an upset, they’ll have to avoid getting punched in the nose in the game’s opening minutes.

2) Draw fouls – The only weakness for Bill Self and the Jayhawks is a rather thin bench. If Texas can somehow get Taylor, Withey, or Robinson in foul trouble, there’s not anyone comparable on the Jayhawk bench that can fill those shoes. If Texas can get some of the key Kansas players on the bench while also manufacturing some points at the line, perhaps the Horns can stay within striking distance for crunch time.

3) Slow down Tyshawn Taylor – The mercurial junior has shown that he can be rattled and will often make questionable decisions in high-pressure situations. Unfortunately, he’s rarely shown those tendencies against the Longhorns. When Texas won in Allen Fieldhouse last January, the Horns were able to limit Taylor to just four points, but didn’t force him into any turnovers. In the two Kansas victories since then, Tyshawn has averaged 21 points, shot 60.9% from the field — including 62.5% behind the arc — and posted nine boards and nine assists. If the Longhorns fail to contain him again tonight, it will be nearly impossible to pull off the improbable road upset.