Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-7 overall, 4-6 Big 12) at #19/19 Texas Longhorns (18-5, 7-3)
Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 6 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN2
Vegas: Texas -4.5 | KenPom: Texas, 77-75 (59%)

By 2 P.M. on Saturday, it was clear that the Texas Longhorns were having an awful day. The team looked good on its first two possessions in a road game against Kansas State, but the wheels came off quickly after. Texas dug itself a quick hole against a hot-shooting Wildcat team, as KSU freshman Marcus Foster lit up the scoreboard and repeatedly crushed the Longhorns’ hopes any time they showed signs of life. When all was said and done, K-State whipped the Longhorns by a 75-57 count, ending a seven-game Texas winning streak.

Although Texas had an awful Saturday, it wasn’t the worst in the conference. If you haven’t been sleeping in a cave for the last 72 hours, you’ve seen exactly what happened — Marcus Smart, frustrated by his team’s losing streak and impending defeat at Texas Tech, took offense to heckling by a mouthy Red Raider fan. Having just fallen in front of the baseline stands, he popped up like there was Flubber on his ass, spun around, and shoved now-infamous superfan Jeff Orr as the man tried to stammer a last-second apology.

Thanks to the 24-hour news cycle and social media, the event was analyzed to death within hours. But while pundits and Twitter experts focused on Smart, his draft stock, fan and player safety, and even how the event represented the decay of modern society, the one thing most often overlooked was how dire the situation at Oklahoma State had become. With the Cowboys already on a four-game losing streak, Smart was handed a three-game suspension, leaving coach Travis Ford without a leader and cutting even further into his short bench.

On February 3rd, the Cowboys had finally dismissed backup point guard Stevie Clark after his second brush with the law. The freshman had previously been suspended twice — for his first arrest and for another violation of team standards. According to ESPN’s Jeff Goodman, sources said that Clark’s first suspension was related to marijuana, the same drug he was allegedly found with during his January legal tangle.

Prior to that, an injury to Michael Cobbins gutted the OSU frontcourt, forcing them to go small just before Big 12 play began. The team’s rebounding numbers, which were already pretty poor, suffered even more. The team has reclaimed just 27% of their own missed shots in league games, while allowing opponents to win back 32.1% of their own.

Although Texas will be without forward Jonathan Holmes in the frontcourt, the Horns still enjoy a sizable advantage inside. Factor in Oklahoma State’s lack of a true point guard, and it seems like Texas should easily win the matchup. But the Cowboys are still very talented, and very desperate. There’s some sort of quote about being cautious around an injured animal that would likely work here, but I don’t know it and don’t feel like looking it up. It probably goes something like, “A wounded tiger is most dangerous because Phil Forte can make 13 threes in one half.” I feel like that’s wrong, but you get the idea.

For a quick look at some of the best players still left on the Oklahoma State roster (and some stuff about that Smart dude, too), click on over to LRT’s preview of the first meeting between these two teams this season.

Keys to the game

1) Dominate the paint – The Longhorns did a fantastic job cleaning the glass in the first meeting with Oklahoma State, and they need to do the same thing tonight. They also need to feed the post early and often, not only to exploit their advantage inside, but also in an effort to get Kamari Murphy and Le’Bryan Nash on the bench in foul trouble. There is a massive dropoff in talent when OSU has to plug in frontcourt reserves, which generally means that Coach Ford just goes even smaller with the lineup. If Texas can commit to playing this game in the paint, another big home win should be in the books.

2) Extend defensive pressure – When Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State on Big Monday two weeks ago, Smart spent much of the game on the bench due to foul trouble. At the time, the Cowboys still had Clark as a point guard option, but he also had his playing time limited by fouls. That left Phil Forte to run the point for extended stretches, and the sharpshooter looked like a deer in the headlights when the Sooners rolled out full-court pressure and rushed ballscreens on the perimeter. OSU turned the ball over and frequently settled for jump shots, so if Texas utilizes the same approach tonight, the Cowboys could find it tough to get on the scoreboard.

3) Settle down in the backcourt – The Longhorn guards had an especially tough time against Oklahoma State in Stillwater, repeatedly turning it over. Isaiah Taylor had one of his worst outings on the year, and although Demarcus Holland had some nice assists to pick up the slack, the Longhorn offense still suffered. Taylor and Javan Felix need to play with composure tonight, as Markel Brown and Brian Wiliams still provide a ton of length for OSU’s defense on the perimeter. The Texas guards should still be their natural, aggressive selves, but have to avoid making mistakes against a very talented defense.