The Texas Longhorns took a big step backwards on Saturday, losing to Oklahoma State and a superhuman Keiton Page in Stillwater. The loss snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and set the Horns back a few pegs on the S-curve, with just two weeks left in the regular season. A win over the Cowboys would have kept Texas safely above the bubble, but now the Horns find themselves back in the danger zone.

With just three wins against the RPI Top 50, the Longhorn résumé could use some extra lines. Those three victories came against Temple (currently 16th in the RPI), Iowa State (40th), and Kansas State (50th), so a win tonight over Baylor (10th) would certainly bolster Texas’ post-season hopes. While the Longhorns could still feasibly make the NCAAs without a win tonight, it would require a lot of help from other teams, or a solid run in the conference tournament.

Texas has had more than its fair share of opportunities to knock off top teams, having lost three games against teams in the RPI’s Top 10 by a combined nine points. Tonight’s battle with Baylor represents the best chance the Longhorns have left for a defining victory. The only question that remains is whether or not this young team can finally rise to the challenge.

Meet the Bears

For a full look at the Baylor roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

The Longhorns found success early against the Baylor defense with quick ball movement and aggressive play. Texas actually built a small, early lead over the Bears, holding a four-point edge eight minutes into the game. But with both Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo cooling their heels on the bench after picking up two fouls each, Baylor was able to pull ahead and take a nine-point lead to the locker room.

Although the Bears stretched their lead as large as 12 points, the Longhorns chipped away at that advantage throughout the second half. J’Covan Brown exploded for 20 of his 32 points after the break, bring the Longhorns all the way back to tie it with just 2:53 to go. Pierre Jackson immediately responded with a clutch three to give Baylor a new lead, one that the team would never relinquish. Although Brown had a three-point attempt to tie the game with 10 seconds left, it clanked off the iron and the Bears salted it away with a pair of free throws by A.J. Walton.

Perry Jones III led the way for Baylor, posting a double-double with an impressive 22-point, 14-rebound line. Quincy Miller also put up great numbers, showing off a smooth jump shot as he piled up 18 points.

Texas did a great job rattling the Baylor offense in the first meeting, turning 18 miscues into 20 points. Unfortunately, the Longhorns also had one of their worst outings of the season at the free-throw line, making just 16 of their 26 attempts. In a game where the Bears only won by five points and made 80% of their own shots at the charity stripe, that failure to convert the freebies was crippling.

Since then…

Baylor has posted just a 3-3 record since facing the Longhorns, with two of those wins coming narrowly against teams at the bottom of the standings. The Bears needed some last minute heroics from Jackson — and an inexplicably bad shot from Elston Turner — to knock off A&M at Reed Arena, 63-60. A few days later, the Bears again held on in the final minute to earn a 64-60 road win at Oklahoma State.

After surviving those close calls, the Bears were hoping to earn some revenge the following week against the only two teams to defeat them — Kansas and Missouri. Instead, Baylor was embarrassed on national television by Kansas and Jeff Withey, and then lost by 15 to the Tigers in Columbia.

Two games out of first place and having been swept by both of the teams ahead of them, the Bears were essentially eliminated from the Big 12 race. Saturday’s one-point loss at home to Kansas State served only to shovel more dirt on those title hopes, while also dropping Baylor into a tie for third with Iowa State.

Over the last two weeks, the PJ3 critics have once again been out in force. The sophomore star has long been lambasted for disappearing in big games and lacking the drive to carry his team. With the Bears losing three out of their last four, his weak performances have given the naysayers plenty of ammo. In the losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, PJ3 averaged just 4.3 points per game on 19.2% shooting from the field.

The Bears have also seen a severe drop-off in their three point success. In their last five games, Baylor has made just 28.2% of their long-range attempts, a far cry from the 41.4% mark they carried into the first game with Texas. While there’s certainly no way that the Longhorns can lay off the Baylor three-point shooters and focus solely on the interior threats, another rough night for Baylor behind the arc will definitely help Texas’ chances.

Keys to the game

1) Win the turnover battle – The Longhorns did an excellent job forcing mistakes when they took on the Bears in Waco. Baylor ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover, leading to 20 points for the Longhorns. In front of a Texas crowd that often only cheers when given a reason to, fast break buckets will be key to keeping the Longhorn fans on their feet.

In Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coughed it up on more than 21% of their possessions, while forcing the Cowboys into mistakes on just 11% of theirs. Even if Texas isn’t able to force as many mistakes by Baylor as they did the first time around, the Horns simply cannot afford to waste their own possessions. Texas absolutely must take better care of the basketball tonight.

2) Make the second chances count – One of Baylor’s most glaring weaknesses is their inability to close out possessions with defensive boards. Even though their team is long and athletic, the Bears are in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to allowing offensive rebounds. The Longhorns happen to be the 13th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation, so they will certainly get some second and third chances tonight. Texas must take advantage of those extended possessions and turn them into more points.

3) Move the ball quickly – The Baylor zone has sprung a few leaks this season, as Kansas showed the nation in their win on February 8th. The Bears are especially susceptible in the short corner, often failing to rotate and giving up easy points on the baseline. Texas exploited this a few times in Waco, and needs to do the same again tonight. Quick ball movement and aggressive penetration will force Baylor to react on defense, something that has been a major problem for the team all season long.

4) Avoid first-half foul trouble – Kabongo and Chapman have been particularly bad offenders in this category, spending much of the first half on the bench in multiple conference games. While some of Chapman’s first-half fouls fall on other Longhorns missing defensive assignments, Kabongo often picks up cheap fouls on plays he has no business trying to make. The Longhorns will need both players to remain in the game this evening, and will also need Alexis Wangmene to avoid foul trouble and help compete against Baylor’s size.

5) Get McClellan going – If Kabongo does happen to find himself in foul trouble, it will be much easier for Baylor to focus their defense on Brown. Sheldon McClellan needs to be assertive and make himself a scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. When McClellan takes charge, the Longhorn offense is much less stagnant, and much more difficult to defend.

It was another nail-biter for the Longhorns in Waco on Saturday, but the familiar script remained the same. Texas was on the losing end of another game decided by six points or less, coming up just short of a monumental road upset of Baylor. Despite being tied with 2:53 to play and having a shot to tie it again in the final seconds, the Longhorns saw their record in games decided by two possessions or less fall to 0-6 on the season.

Texas was carried by the play of J’Covan Brown, who scored 32 points on 50% shooting from the field, a sharp improvement from the 25.7% mark he posted in the team’s last three games. With Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo playing limited minutes thanks to foul trouble, the Horns had to have a big game from Brown to even stay in it.

Brown’s one-man show was one-upped by Baylor’s Perry Jones III, who logged a double-double with 22 points and 14 boards. He scored from seemingly everywhere on the court, knocking down mid-range jumpers, drilling turnaround looks, and posting up against the foul-plagued Texas frontcourt. Freshman Quincy Miller, a superstar whose brilliance is oftentimes eclipsed by PJ3, added another 18 points to Baylor’s winning effort.

What looked good

It was imperative that Brown finally break out of his funk and have an efficient game, but it didn’t look like that would be the case in the first half. He scored just four points in the game’s first 15 minutes, with those coming off of a goaltended layup and a pair of free throws. Fortunately, the junior was consistently setting up his teammates to score, logging three assists over that same stretch.

Coming out of the locker room, Brown played like a man possessed. He dropped 20 of his 32 points in the second half, even sinking off-balance looks that likely had the coaching staff sweating. Brown also finally found his stroke from long range, knocking down 4-of-7 from behind the arc after going 0-for-3 in the first half.

In addition to Brown’s second-half surge, the Texas defense played a big role in keeping Baylor at arm’s reach when the Bears tried to pull away. The Longhorns forced 18 Baylor turnovers for a TO rate of 26.3%, which led to 20 Longhorn points. Julien Lewis was the biggest catalyst, logging four steals for Texas.

Jonathan Holmes also had a promising start, but struggled on the defensive end and piled up the fouls. He knocked down a triple and a short jumper just outside the lane in the first few minutes of the game, but managed only one other basket the rest of the way and missed both of his free throw attempts.

What needed work

Those missed free throws were an epidemic for the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. For a team that had made 92.1% of their free throws in games against Kansas State and Kansas, the timing could not have been worse for a tragic downswing. Texas made only 16 of their 26 attempts against Baylor (61.5%), while the Bears made just under 80% of their attempts. In a game decided by just five points, leaving that many freebies at the line was an absolute killer.

In addition to Holmes’ donut at the line, the Longhorns also had crippling misses from Alexis Wangmene, who went 0-for-2, and Kabongo, who missed half of his eight attempts. Obviously, Texas won’t be able to consistently hit at that incredible 92% clip they reached against the two Kansas schools, but the 61.4% mark over the last two games is very troubling as the team heads down the homestretch of the regular season.

Texas was also scuttled by a very poor performance on the defensive glass. Although Baylor has one of the longest, most athletic frontcourts in the country, the Longhorns hurt themselves with a ton of whistles inside that led to a rotating cast in their own frontcourt. The Bears reclaimed more than 45% of their missed shots, which was the 4th-best mark the team has posted in its 21 games and was well above their season average of 37.3%.

One of those players hampered by foul trouble was Chapman, whose absence once again proved how crucial he is to the team’s success. As it was when Chapman was saddled with fouls in the road loss to Missouri, the Longhorns were abused inside for buckets and boards, giving up 22 points and being outrebounded by a count of 40-28.

While any scouting report worth its salt is going to tell teams to attack Chapman and get him on the bench, the Longhorns will have to find a way to protect their big man. That could mean switching to a zone defense against teams that aren’t automatic from long range, although the Big 12 is full of great three-point shooters. Five of the other nine teams in the league have made more than 36% of their threes so far this season, with Baylor actually cracking the Top 10 nationally with a 40.8% mark. In addition, a zone defense would only exacerbate the problems Texas has had on the defensive glass.

The optimal solution would be for Wangmene and Jaylen Bond to step up when Chapman is unavailable, but so far that outcome seems unlikely. Bond is still a fierce rebounder, and did some good work on the glass against Baylor. Unfortunately, he’s undersized for his position, and it’s caused him to really struggle on defense against bigger teams. Wangmene has also done good work on the boards, but his defense is hit-or-miss and he has problems handling the nice interior passes from Brown and Kabongo on the offensive end.

Coming into Texas’ current six-game stretch against the top teams in the Big 12, most fans had an understandably bleak outlook on the team’s future. The fact that the Longhorns were competitive in each of the first five games offers a ray of hope for the upcoming home games against the heavy hitters of the Big 12. Texas let one slip away against Kansas at the Erwin Center last weekend, but still has the opportunity to take down Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor at home in coming weeks. If the Longhorns want to keep their 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak alive, that’s exactly what they will have to do.

Up next: vs. #2/2 Missouri (19-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12); Monday, 8 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11″ forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

The main knock on PJ3′s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.

It was far from pretty. But after losing three of their last four games, the Longhorns were willing to take any win they could get.

Texas finally ended its road woes last night, winning in Waco for the team’s first victory away from the Erwin Center since beating Oklahoma in Norman on February 9th. The Horns overcame 35% shooting from the field, capitalizing on an excellent rebounding performance to gut out a 60-54 win over Baylor.

The loss was much bigger for the Bears than the win was for the Longhorns. Texas was already locked into the Big 12′s second seed in the upcoming conference tournament, while the Bears entered the game as one of Joe Lunardi’s projected “First Four Out” of the NCAA field. Following the defeat, Baylor was still entrenched in that dreaded group, as other bubble teams failed to secure convincing wins.

Fortunately for the Bears, they can get another crack at Texas. Thanks to a late season win against Nebraska, Baylor owned the tiebreaker over the Cornhuskers and earned the league’s 7th seed in the conference tournament. Now they only have to beat 10th-seeded Oklahoma in order to face Texas in the tournament quarterfinals on Thursday night. At just 7-9 in league play, with just a pair of victories over Texas A&M to hang their hat on, even a win in that game might not be enough for the Bears.

What looked good

In a game that had just 45 combined points in the first half, there wasn’t much that looked exceptionally good. Much of the ugliness on the court was caused by the long-awaited return of Texas’ stifling defense. The Longhorns limited Baylor to just 0.915 points per possession, only the second time in the last five games that Texas was able to keep an opponent under one point per trip. The other came against the league’s cellar-dweller, Iowa State, who managed only 0.767 points per possession in Austin last week.

While the Texas defense was finally making its reappearance, the offense was struggling. Tristan Thompson managed to keep Texas afloat in the first half, however, dominating the offensive glass and piling up second chance points. Thompson finished the game with 19 points and 13 rebounds, with eight of those boards coming on the offensive end.

Thompson’s rebounding percentage on the offensive glass was an insane 22.8%, the first time he had even cracked the 15% mark since beating Missouri in early January. As a point of reference, the nation’s best offensive rebounder — Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried — is averaging a 20.1% success rate on offensive rebounding opportunities against his overmatched Ohio Valley foes.

Thompson wasn’t the only one dominating the rebounding battle. As a team, the Longhorns grabbed more than 51% of their missed shots, which resulted in quite a few boards thanks to their 38 missed shots on the night. In the first half, Texas reclaimed 44% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, and did an even better job out-muscling the Bears in the second half. The Longhorns secured 12 offensive boards in the final twenty minutes, while Baylor grabbed just eight defensive rebounds.

A big part of Texas’ late-game success was clutch play from Alexis Wangmene. He played only 11 minutes in the game, but grabbed five offensive boards, including three in the final three minutes. He earned four attempts at the line, and sunk all of them, a huge feat for any Longhorn. The team made just 59.3% of their free throw attempts on the night, and just 52.2% if you take Wangmene’s makes out of the equation.

With the game still in doubt and less than a minute on the clock, Wangmene managed to grab his most important rebound off a missed jumper by Cory Joseph. The Horns kicked it out to the sure-shooting J’Covan Brown, who essentially iced the game with a pair of free throws. Although Alexis doesn’t get credit on the stat sheet for those points, the much-maligned reserve was instrumental in preserving the win.

The other player who must be singled out for an impressive performance is Gary Johnson. Playing in his final regular season game, Johnson did it all on both ends of the court. In addition to eight big rebounds, Johnson also had a pair of clutch jumpers that kept Texas in the game early in the second half when it looked like Baylor was going to run away with it. Most important, however, was his surprising defense on Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn, who was becoming a one-man wrecking crew coming out of halftime.

Early in the second half, Dunn drilled a three-pointer with Balbay in his face. Texas responded on the next possession, as Joseph left A.J. Walton to double Dunn. The extra attention backfired, as it allowed Walton to get an easy putback on a weakside rebound. Two possessions later, Anthony Jones had a wide-open three because Joseph again elected to double Dunn instead of sticking with Walton, and Baylor’s quick ball reversal around the perimeter led to the easy triple. LaceDarius followed all of that with another bucket on the ensuing possession, and the Bears were suddenly up by nine.

Coming out of the under-16 media timeout, Rick Barnes gave Gary Johnson the difficult task of sticking with Baylor’s superstar. Where Dunn could once pop ridiculous shots with Balbay in his face, he now had to deal with a 6’6″ defender. Beyond just the height advantage, Johnson also showed incredible athleticism and hustle in sticking with Dunn through screen after screen, limiting his ability to find the space to shoot. With Johnson defending him, Dunn had a scoreless stretch of more than seven minutes, and went just 2-for-9 the rest of the game.

What needed work

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, a big part of their early struggles was the continued difficulty for Jordan Hamilton on the offensive end. He was just 1-for-7 from the field in the first half, with his only basket coming on a dunk. Two of his misses were on ugly, forced shots, and he passed up open looks inside by trying to make unnecessary interior passes to the blocks.

Those extra passes inside were indicative of a larger problem for Texas, namely that the team looked incredibly tight in the first half. The Longhorns had a few early possessions where they actually penetrated the zone or made the pass into the soft middle. But instead of being assertive with the basketball and taking the shot or making the quick pass, the players seemed to be too concerned with not making mistakes. That indecision let Baylor recover, and Texas was forced into long, ugly possessions that typically ended in bad looks.

As always, free throws were an albatross for the Longhorns. As previously mentioned, the team shot below 60% at the line, the 11th time they have been below that watermark in their 31 games. Add in the fact that Texas missed the front end on three different one-and-one attempts, and that’s a ton of potential points the team left on the line.

While it’s a known fact that Thompson is going to struggle from the line — and that he gets to the line more frequently than the rest of the team — the troubling thing is that J’Covan Brown and Cory Joseph were the culprits on two of those wasted one-and-ones. When even the guards are struggling at the line, Texas is going to have some major issues with offensive efficiency.

Up next: Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal vs. Baylor or Oklahoma (in Kansas City); Thursday, 6 P.M. CT

With Kansas winning at Missouri and Texas A&M knocking off Tech at home, the top four seeds in the Big 12 tournament are already decided. The Jayhawks have claimed their seventh-straight conference championship with a 14-2 league record, and for the fourth time during that run, Kansas has earned sole possession of the conference crown. A&M’s victory locked them into the 3-seed, while resurgent Kansas State is now the league’s fourth-place team. The Longhorns, who opened league play with a sparkling 11-0 mark, are now guaranteed to finish in second place thanks to a 1-3 mark in their last four games.

While that means Texas has nothing to play for in terms of conference seeding, the Horns still have the NCAA tournament to worry about. Their recent slide has eliminated any hopes of securing a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, and another loss tonight could end their tenuous hold on a 2-seed. Baylor, meanwhile, is still one of the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projection at ESPN. Like Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State before them, the Bears will be desperate for a résumé-building win over Texas.

The first meeting

After Texas had won their first nine league games by double-digits, the Baylor Bears finally ended that streak in the season’s first meeting between the two teams. The Longhorns sprinted out to an early lead, which grew to 19 at one point in the first half. Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn made things interesting, though, scoring 22 points in the second half to get the Bears within three points in the final minutes. The Longhorns managed to ice things at the line, and escaped with a 69-60 win.

Tristan Thompson was the headliner for Texas, posting a double-double with 17 points and 13 boards. He even blocked three Baylor shots, and managed to outshine vaunted freshman Perry Jones III in a head-to-head battle. For the Bears, Dunn’s 26-point outburst led the way, with Jones’ 13 point performance the only other double-digit scoring output on the team.

Since then…

Since their impressive comeback fell just short against the Longhorns, the Bears have been something of a bi-polar team. I’d love to work in a timely joke about how Baylor has been bi-winning, but the fact of the matter is that they have had some very questionable losses over the last month.

Although the Bears completed a season sweep of Texas A&M with a win on Saturday night, they lost all three of their other conference games since facing Texas in Austin. Those losses included a head-scratching defeat to Texas Tech in Waco and a meltdown in the second half against Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. Perhaps they just needed more tiger blood.

Meet the Bears

For an in-depth look at the Baylor players and statistics, please read the preview from this season’s first meeting.

Keys to the game

While the offensive numbers have been ugly for Jordan Hamilton over the last two-plus weeks, his defense has been just as bad. In his final 2011 edition of the Power Rankings, SI’s Luke Winn published an excellent set of screenshots from the debacle in Colorado that underscored just how mercurial Hamilton’s defensive effort can be.

Without a doubt, Hamilton must bounce back for the Longhorns to win on the road tonight. He simply must improve the 30.6% shooting mark he has posted in the last five games, especially when you consider how Texas also suffers on the defensive end when his shot isn’t falling. Even if Hamilton is struggling from the floor, he has to remain mentally checked in on D against a loaded Baylor roster.

In addition, Texas needs to remain active on the glass. They did an excellent job in the first game, holding Baylor to a 23.8% mark on the offensive glass. Against the tall, talented frontline from Waco, that dominant of a performance was completely unexpected. While we aren’t holding our breath for a repeat of that performance tonight, if Texas can at least limit Baylor’s second chances, it will keep them in the game even when their own shots aren’t falling.

Finally, the Longhorn offense can’t grind to a halt. The first time these two teams played, Texas had one stretch of more than six minutes without a field goal. In the team’s recent losses to Colorado and Kansas State, they had similar droughts from the field.

Texas cannot allow their offense to devolve into four players standing around while Hamilton or J’Covan Brown make ill-advised drives from the corner that result in ugly, challenged shots. The Longhorns must get back to what worked for them earlier in the season, with motion off the ball and post players who could make the quick pass when defenses collapsed. If they can’t, the Texas offense will once again look like it has in the last two-plus weeks, and the Horns will likely be looking at another Saturday road loss to yet another bubble team.

After the first twenty minutes of Saturday’s game, it looked like the Longhorns were well on their way to another double-digit rout of a conference opponent. Texas held Baylor to just 0.64 points per possession in the first half, well off their season mark of 1.095, while the Longhorns knocked down more than 53% of their shots. Texas built a lead as large as 19 points and headed to the locker room up by 16.

Things changed rather quickly. LaceDarius Dunn scored 22 points in the second half, while Texas endured a painful stretch of 6:18 without a field goal. The Longhorns also left points on the line, making just six of 11 free throw attempts during the field-goal drought, allowing Baylor to hang around until the final minutes. The Bears were able to trim the lead down to just three points with 2:06 to play, but Texas ultimately iced the game with six free throws down the stretch.

The victory moves the Longhorns to a perfect 10-0 in Big 12 play, still just one game ahead of a Jayhawk team that waxed Iowa State in Lawrence on Saturday. With only six games left to play, even the slightest slip-up by Texas will practically guarantee Kansas a share of the conference championship. There are few games left on the Jayhawks’ schedule that look like possible losses, so it is becoming increasingly likely that the Horns must run the table to secure an outright Big 12 title. Even though this victory ended Texas’ nine-game run of double-digit conference wins, at this point all that matters are the Ws.

What looked good

A big part of Texas’ stifling first-half defense was a dominant effort on the glass. The Longhorns allowed Baylor to reclaim just 22.2% of their misses in the first half, limiting them to only a handful of second-chance opportunities. That strong effort continued in the second half, as the Bears finished with a 23.8% mark on the offensive glass. If not for Dunn’s impressive second half, the Baylor offense still would have been on lockdown.

The overall defensive effort was incredibly impressive for the Longhorns, especially considering how outsized they were in the post. Even with Dunn going off in the second half, the Bears managed just 0.843 points per possession on the afternoon. The Bears had only been held below 0.900 PPP one other time all season, in a neutral-site loss to Gonzaga back in December.

On offense, Texas did a great job of attacking the Baylor zone in the first half. The team knocked down their open jumpers and made quick passes for easy looks inside. Texas’ zone offense was so good, the Bears actually switched to their hardly-used man-to-man defense in the second half and settled for a hack attack inside defensively.

Texas’ execution against the zone was a welcome sight after a few seasons in which the team has struggled mightily against even average zone defenses. Rather than settle for outside looks as they would have in past years, Texas put on a clinic on how to attack the zone, and it worked to the tune of 38 first-half points.

For the Longhorns, the MVP was freshman Tristan Thompson, who was a beast inside. He blocked three shots, scored 17 points, and grabbed 13 rebounds, eight of which came on the offensive end. Unfortunately, he had his typical 50% performance at the line, knocking down just 7-of-14 on the afternoon.

Thompson’s impact was biggest in the final minutes of the game, as the Longhorns struggled to hold off Baylor. He knocked down a pair free throws to put Texas up five with 94 seconds left, then batted a Baylor lob pass out of bounds on the following possession, preventing an easy layup for the Bears.

What needed work

Part of what caused the Texas drought in the second half was poor shooting just feet from the rim. Time and again, layups and short jumpers rimmed out, allowing Baylor to slowly chip away at the Texas lead. It is easy to chalk these kinds of misses up to bad luck, but luck or not, the Longhorns simply have to convert when they are that close to the basket.

For the Horns, the 0.969 points they scored per possession was their lowest offensive output since the Michigan State game. While that’s not a terrible number, the strong first half for Texas buoyed that average, masking just how abysmal the second half was. During the final twenty minutes, the Longhorns managed just 0.795 points each time down the floor.

A big part of that offensive ineptitude was terrible free throw shooting. While that’s nothing new for this Texas team, their inability to hit the easy ones when they counted the most nearly allowed Baylor to come back for an improbable win. As previously mentioned, Thompson was the biggest offender with his 50% effort at the line, but the problem was team-wide. J’Covan Brown, normally one of the team’s steadiest free-throw shooters, hit just 4-of-7, including 2-of-4 after Baylor had been tagged with an intentional foul and technical foul.

If the Longhorns are truly the national title contender that many pundits think they are, we must bring up the cautionary tale of the 2008 Memphis Tigers. That team was just 61.4% from the line on the season, and their poor shooting down the stretch in the national championship game allowed Kansas to force overtime and ultimately win the title. One can’t help but think a similar fate is in store for Texas at some point in March if they cannot improve their 64.7% mark at the line.

On defense, the backcourt assignments were interesting. Shutdown artist Dogus Balbay was primarily assigned to A.J. Walton, while freshman Cory Joseph had the tough task of stopping Dunn. Despite the 26-point outburst by Baylor’s superstar, you can’t really knock Joseph for how he defended him. LaceDarius drilled multiple threes with Joseph just inches away from him, and he managed to sink quite a few layups and runners after making acrobatic finishes among the Texas bigs.

The defense on Dunn certainly isn’t something that “needed work.” After all, he scored just four points in the first half before his superhuman effort in the second stanza. But, unfortunately the dichotomy of our post-games doesn’t really allow for a better place for this note. You simply have to applaud Joseph for his effort and tip your hat to Dunn on an impressive performance.

Up next: vs. Oklahoma State (16-8 overall, 4-6 Big 12)

As Texas has made its march through the first month of the Big 12 season, the Longhorns have exorcised a few of their recent demons. The team earned the first win in school history at Allen Fieldhouse, then ended a six-year losing streak to Texas A&M at Reed Arena. This afternoon, the Horns can end yet another skid as they host the Baylor Bears.

After beating the Bears 24 consecutive times, the Longhorns have dropped four straight to Baylor, including a three-game sweep last season. That Baylor team went on to the Elite Eight, coming within just minutes of a Final Four berth before falling to Duke in Houston. This year’s team is a decidedly different group of players, and the odds seem to be in Texas’ favor this time around.

The Bears started the season with a lot of buzz, based on the arrival of stud freshman Perry Jones III and the return of sharpshooter LaceDarius Dunn, who will likely be the Big 12′s all-time scoring leader by the end of the season.

Unfortunately, the Bears have stumbled through the first few months of the season, losing three neutral-site games in non-conference play before bumbling through a 3-3 start in the Big 12. Baylor has since won three of four, and now actually find themselves in third place in the conference.

By the numbers

Scott Drew and the Bears play a bit slower than the national average, working in just 66.4 possessions per ballgame. A big reason for this is their standard 2-3 zone, which forces opponents to take longer each possession to find an open look. The Baylor offense is also a bit slow, as the team can often go stagnant for long stretches as Dunn works to get open and the other four guys stand and watch.

The one number that sticks out for Baylor is an abnormally high turnover percentage. The Bears cough it up on 23.8% of their possessions, a stat that is so poor, it puts them 315th nationally out of 345 teams. Fortunately for Baylor, the stout Texas defense isn’t one that forces many turnovers, so they won’t see excessive pressure from the Longhorns this afternoon. If Baylor does turn it over a bunch against Texas, it’s likely the result of their own carelessness.

The Bears are also a great rebounding team, thanks to one of the longest frontcourts in the nation. They claim 37.3% of the offensive rebounding chances they have, while limiting opponents to just a 29.1% success rate on their own offensive board opportunities. In pure numbers, Baylor is posting a +6.6 rebounding margin per game.

However, in their four conference losses, Baylor’s offensive rebounding percentage was 32.4% or lower. In four of the five wins, it was 37% or higher. Only Wednesday’s narrow win over Nebraska came on a night with poor offensive rebounding, with the Bears reclaiming just 28.3% of their misses.

Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma also grabbed a ton of their own misses when they beat the Bears. Both Kansas schools had offensive board percentages north of 46%, while OU — a team that is typically terrible on the glass — grabbed nearly 38% of their own misses.

Meet the Bears

Baylor employs a very small, but talented rotation. Four of the five starters average 32 minutes or more, while Anthony Jones plays at least 29 minutes per night. The bench only runs three deep, but all of the Baylor reserves are skilled role players who make the most of their minutes.

The big name on Baylor’s roster is senior LaceDarius Dunn, who has one of the best shots in college basketball. He will absolutely kill you if you leave him open behind the arc, where he’s made 41.8% of his attempts this season. He’s also averaging more than 20 points per game, including an impressive 18 points per game against conference opponents.

Without Tweety Carter on the Baylor roster, defenses are keying more on Dunn this season. As a result, the Bears are having to work harder setting screens off the ball to free up their sharpshooter. In addition, Dunn has improved his floater and midrange game, which makes it much more of a gamble for opponents to play in his shirt on the perimeter.

Replacing Carter in the backcourt is point guard A.J. Walton, who is doing a good job feeding Dunn and the Baylor bigs. Walton has an eye-popping assist rate of 29.3%, good enough for 102nd in the country according to stat guru Ken Pomeroy. He also has exceptionally quick hands on defense, and leads the Big 12 with 22 steals in 10 conference games. Just like Dunn, Walton is a player that can’t be left alone behind the arc, where he is making 43.1% of his attempts.

Down low, the 6’7″ Quincy Acy is a force to be reckoned with. Although he’s not going to take anybody off the dribble, and more than half of his career field goals are dunks, he repeatedly finds a way to get open down low or sprint for an easy lob. Just ask the Longhorns, who Acy scored 24 points against in Waco last March. Of his 12 buckets in that game, 10 were throwdowns.

Acy is also one of Baylor’s big rebounders, grabbing 7.5 boards per game and 6.8 rebounds per game in Big 12 play. While he’s not the shot blocker that Ekpe Udoh was for the Bears last year, Acy does lead the team with 36 blocks, and he’s constantly altering shots when opponents drive the lane.

The other main rebounder for Baylor is freshman stud Perry Jones III. He’s averaging seven boards a night to go with 14.6 points, and he’s slotted in the top five of practically every NBA mock draft. At 6’11″, PJ3 has played every position in his career, so he’s a versatile threat with great handles, a smooth midrange jumper, and superior athleticism. He’s a tough matchup for 99% of the basketball world, so Texas will have to work very hard to contain him this afternoon.

Anthony Jones is another big man for Baylor, checking in at 6’10″. Although he’s adept at scoring inside, the junior has no problem stepping out beyond the perimeter and knocking down a triple. Defensively, he’s another long body on that back line of Baylor’s 2-3 zone that makes it tough to penetrate or get open looks in the corner.

Off the bench, speedy freshman guard Stargell Love has made a quick impact even though he suffered a stress fracture in his foot back in December. He’s able to split the point guard duties with Walton, but is more of a combo guard who can knock down the three or score inside the arc. He has a wicked pull-up jumper, made even more deadly by just how quickly he can drive the basketball. Although Love is averaging just 12.8 minutes and 2.3 points per game, he is going to be a big star in the near future.

Junior Fred Ellis is a swingman out of California who has already earned his Bachelors and is currently in grad school. He’s a pretty stout 6’6″ guy who scraps for loose balls and rebounds, and generally just provides smart minutes off the bench. (Smart minutes aren’t too surprising, coming from this Doogie Howser of the hardwood.) His 3.9 points and 2.3 rebounds in roughly 17 minutes a game aren’t going to set any box scores ablaze, but he’ll definitely make an impact this afternoon on a handful of plays.

Dallas product J’mison Morgan transferred to Baylor after a season at UCLA, and he gives Coach Drew another big body off the bench to sub into that dominating back line. He’s started six of the team’s conference games, while Acy has been relegated to the sixth man role, so he might be in the starting five tonight. Whether it’s as reserve or starter, the 6’11″ Morgan makes it difficult for opponents to get easy looks inside, but isn’t much of a threat on the offensive end.

Keys to the game

The Longhorns can make things very difficult on Baylor today if they get out to a fast start. The Bears managed just 18 points in the first half of a loss against Kansas State, and scored only 21 first-half points against Colorado before storming back late for a victory.

Baylor’s preference for the zone defense means that a big first-half lead is hard for them to overcome. The zone gives them less possessions to work their comeback magic, unless they choose to go to their weaker man-to-man D. Then, they run the risk of letting the opponent score too often to be able to mount any comeback.

To beat that Baylor zone, Texas needs Gary Johnson to knock down the jumpers. He’s the most-efficient mid-range shooter for the Longhorns, so if he can get it going from the soft middle of the zone, things will really open up for Texas.

Baylor has had some major issues this season sliding quickly enough in their zone, leaving the baseline wide open on cuts. If Gary is knocking down the free-throw line J and forcing the Bears to jump out on him, Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson should have a lot of open looks cutting along the baseline.

The Longhorn defense must also be sure to pick its poison this afternoon. It’s practically impossible to shut down Dunn, as he proved in Wednesday night’s win over Nebraska. After scoring just four points in the first half, LaceDarius poured in 20 in the second half, powering his team to a win over the Huskers.

Unfortunately for Baylor, Dunn likely can’t beat Texas by himself. And by the same token, PJ3 and Acy also can’t beat the Horns on their own. If Texas sells out to stop Dunn or to limit the inside scoring from the Bears, it’s unlikely the resulting one-dimensional Baylor attack can manage a win.

Finally, as we mentioned above, keeping Baylor off the glass is a surefire way to earn a W over the Bears. If Texas wins the rebounding battle, the numbers indicate that this Baylor team will have a very tough time pulling off the road upset.

This is the third match-up this year between the Bears and Longhorns, so fans should be well-acquainted with what both teams bring to the table. If not, you’ll want to revisit the game preview from the first meeting. If you are familiar with the Bears, let’s jump right into what will matter when the game tips in roughly three hours.

1) Who will win the turnover battle? – It seems like quite a simple key to the game, but turnovers have truly been the difference in the series this season. At the Frank Erwin Center, Texas played a fairly ugly game that they would have won if not for a putback just milliseconds before the buzzer. The reason the Longhorns were still in that position was that the Bears coughed it up 20 times on the afternoon.

On Saturday, however, Baylor was the perfect example of steady ball control. While Texas had 18 turnovers and gave up what seemed like 108 fast break points, the Bears had just eight turnovers of their own. These are two very good teams with very little differential in talent. Something as glaring as a -10 turnover margin will certainly spell doom for the Longhorns tonight.

2) Can the Texas frontcourt score against Baylor? – The lengthy, athletic Baylor defense makes it very, very difficult for opponents to score. With Dexter Pittman often struggling to finish at the rim and with the lack of an explosive ballhandler in the backcourt, the Longhorns could find it very difficult to pile up the points tonight. Fortunately, Gary Johnson has had a string of great games down the stretch, including a 25-point, 8-rebound performance against Baylor on Saturday.

Whether it’s Pittman, Johnson, or another workmanlike night from Damion James, the Longhorns simply must score inside against Baylor’s solid 2-3 zone. If they fail to do so and rely on three-pointers and long-range Js, chance are slim that the Horns can survive to the semifinals.

3) Do the Longhorns know how to prevent an alley-oop? – As facetious as this question is, it certainly needs to be asked. Texas conceded approximately 72 rim-rattling alley-oops to Baylor on Saturday, and even allowed two more against the Cyclones last night. Quincy Acy — a man whose only reliable shots are dunks and layups — scored 24 points for Baylor in their win on Saturday. There is almost no chance for Texas to win if they give up that many easy buckets again tonight.

Post-game react will be headed your way in the morning, but for in-game updates from tonight’s quarterfinals, you can follow LRT on Twitter.

As Big 12 play heads into its final day, there is absolutely nothing that is settled. Outside of four seeds — No. 1 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 11 Iowa State, and No. 12 Nebraska — everything is up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. For the Longhorns, there still remains the possibility of the No. 4 seed and the first-round bye that goes with it. Of course, a loss this afternoon means that Texas is locked into the 6-seed and will open the tournament with Iowa State late on Wednesday night.

If Texas does happen to beat Baylor this afternoon, things get a little more interesting. If the Longhorns win and the Aggies lose to the Sooners in a game that is currently underway, Texas would ascend to the No. 4 seed, with Baylor and A&M following up in 5th and 6th. If Texas wins, but the Aggies also win, the Longhorns clinch the No. 5 seed and Baylor takes No. 6.

Of course, none of that matters if the Longhorns lose today, so the team must build on their strong showing in Monday night’s win over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Baylor and their imposing frontcourt provide a very big challenge for the Longhorns to overcome in pursuit of that goal. If you’re not familiar with the Bears or their style of play, you’ll want to check out our brief preview from the first time these two teams met.

Despite horrid free throw shooting, Texas was within milliseconds of a victory over the Bears in that game. But after Ekpe Udoh airballed the game-winning three-point attempt, an Anthony Jones putback with 0.3 seconds on the clock sent the game into overtime. Baylor pulled ahead in the extra five minutes, and escaped with a three-point win as Avery Bradley‘s game-tying attempt clanged off the iron at the buzzer.

Check back Sunday evening for post-game reaction, or follow us on Twitter for in-game updates from the Ferrell Center.

Unfortunately, that pesky “real” life got in the way yesterday, so we will just make some quick notes on the loss before hitting the road for Stillwater in an hour or so.

1) Free throws finally cost the Horns – You could make the argument that free-throw woes were part of Texas’ downfall at Kansas State and probably build a solid case. But with Saturday’s loss to Baylor, there is simply no doubt. When your opponent needs a putback with miliseconds on the clock just to tie the game, it’s easy to see that 15-of-23 shooting from the line in regulation prevented the win. The Longhorns have actually become even more horrid at the line in conference play, hitting just 59.9% of their attempts and dropping their season average to 61.3%.

2) Bad Jordan showed up – I can’t take credit for the name (that goes to the fine folks at Shaggy Bevo), but there’s no denying that there is a Jekyll-and-Hyde aspect to Hamilton’s play this season. In this game, he took three bad shots and turned it over once in roughly two minutes on the court. That basically equates to four turnovers, which is something the Horns can’t afford if they are going to tighten up the rotation. To compliment the core players, Texas needs a few quality minutes from Jordan every game, not a few nightmarish ones.

3) Jai Lucas needs to move off the ball – It’s a delicate situation, as Jai transferred to Texas because he wanted a chance to play the point. But the guard has been sloppy with the basketball and has yet to prove that he can create his own shot against anyone besides overmatched opponents from small conferences. Against the Bears, Jai managed to turn the ball over three times in his two minutes at the point. As Coach Barnes works on a tighter rotation, Lucas best serves the team as an A.J. Abrams type of marksman. Of course, his height deficiencies make him a liability on defense against most teams, so he should be playing in short stints to bring a scoring spark off the bench at the two.