TEAM W L THIS WEEK NEXT WEEK Kansas 5 0 W vs. Baylor, 78-68 Sat at TCU Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Texas Kansas State 4 2 L at Texas, 67-64 Sat at Iowa State Tue vs. Texas Tech Sat at West Virginia Oklahoma 4 2 W vs. TCU, 77-69 Sat at Texas Tech Mon vs. Oklahoma State Sat at Iowa State Texas 4 2 W vs. Kansas State, 67-64 Sat at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas Oklahoma State 3 2 Sat vs. West Virginia Mon at Oklahoma Sat vs. Baylor West Virginia 3 3 W vs. Texas Tech, 87-81 Sat at Oklahoma State Tue at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas State Iowa State 2 3 Sat vs. Kansas State Wed at Kansas Sat vs. Oklahoma Texas Tech 2 4 L at West Virginia, 87-81 Sat vs. Oklahoma Tue at Kansas State Sat vs. TCU Baylor 1 4 L at Kansas, 78-68 Sat vs. Texas Tue vs. West Virginia Sat at Oklahoma State TCU 0 6 L at Oklahoma, 77-69 Sat vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Tech

The big picture

Before conference play began, conventional wisdom held that Kansas was still the favorite in the Big 12, but that the Jayhawks could face stiff tests from Baylor and Oklahoma State. Even Iowa State emerged as a contender with its undefeated start, which included a win over Michigan and a road victory against BYU. With Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all exceeding pre-season expectations, the league appeared to be deeper than ever, one in which the teams would beat each other up all season long.

The league certainly has proven to be a meat grinder, with every road win a valuable commodity. But while Oklahoma State and Baylor have both suffered losses in the first weeks of conference play, and Iowa State has stalled in a three-game losing streak, the Jayhawks have once again risen above the fray. With the teams now one-third of the way through the Big 12’s double round-robin, Kansas has a 1.5-game lead over its closest competitors, and Ken Pomeroy’s computers predict that KU will finish the season a full three games ahead of Oklahoma State.

At nearly this exact same point in last year’s conference race, I wrote about how Kansas had already turned it into a three-team battle. The Jayhawks were favored to win every game from that point on, and I even suggested that, “with odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.” Just four games later, I was already wrong, as the Jayhawks went on an unprecedented three-game skid that had Coach Bill Self saying his team that lost at TCU “was the worst team Kansas ever put on the floor, since Dr. Naismith was there.”

In the spirit of learning from past mistakes, I won’t go so far as to make any bold predictions about the Jayhawks in late January of this year. But, I will point out that any team that wants to catch Kansas will have to make up quite a bit of ground. Not only has Kansas already built a 1.5-game lead, but the Jayhawks have done it while also surviving two of the league’s tougher road tests at intimidating Hilton Coliseum and against a very OU team in Norman. The Jayhawks have also dispatched two of the presumed contenders at home, knocking off both Oklahoma State and Baylor in the last week. While road games in Manhattan, Austin, and Stillwater could still prove to be stumbling blocks, unless the Jayhawks trip up in all three of those games, somebody is going to have to defy the odds at Allen Fieldhouse.

Today’s games

Texas at Baylor; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/Baylor game will be available on Saturday morning.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3)

On January 6th, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin had a perfect combined record of 43-0. Over the following week, each of the teams finally fell from the ranks of the unbeatens….and they just kept losing. The three teams combined to lose 10 straight games once their unblemished marks disappeared, with Ohio State’s victory against Illinois on Thursday night finally breaking the group’s slide.

Since losing at Texas last Saturday, Iowa State has enjoyed an entire week off to refocus their efforts. Already in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Cyclones are about to embark on a very tough four-game stretch against ranked opponents. Fortunately Iowa State is at home for two of those games, in an arena where they have posted a 17-3 record in conference play over the last two-plus seasons.

On paper, Saturday’s matchup with Kansas State seems to favor the Cyclones. Kansas State struggles to score outside the paint, while Iowa State’s interior defense is one of the best in the country. The Wildcats get most of their points from offensive rebounds or dribble penetration by Jevon Thomas and Marcus Foster. Unfortunately for K-State, the Cyclones actually rebound very well on the defensive end, and their length on the perimeter allows them to play conservatively and stifle dribble penetration.

The Wildcats have kept themselves in games all season long with a tough defense that keeps scores low enough for their average offense to keep up. In Iowa State’s high-powered offense, KSU is going to find one of its toughest tests yet. The Wildcats have to eliminate transition opportunities for Iowa State and hope that Thomas Gipson and Nino Williams can reclaim enough missed shots on the other end to keep them in the game.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Mountaineers have yet to beat a team that isn’t below them in the standings, but they did give the Cowboys a scare when these two teams met in Morgantown just a few weeks ago. Terry Henderson went crazy from behind the arc in that game, knocking down five of his seven three-point attempts. In the end, it was a last-second three from Oklahoma State’s Markel Brown that sealed the deal, keeping the Cowboys from a crippling 0-2 start.

Henderson wasn’t able to recapture the magic from that performance in West Virginia’s next two games, but he game back with a vengeance earlier this week. In a sharpshooter’s battle with Texas Tech’s Dusty Hannahs, Henderson drilled 5-of-6 from long range in an 87-81 WVU win on Wednesday. The Mountaineers will need another solid performance from their X-factor to win in Stillwater, and they must maintain their Top 10 turnover percentage against an OSU team that repeatedly forces mistakes by visiting teams.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

The Baylor Bears were given a reminder just how hard it can be to win on the High Plains when they fell victim to Texas Tech in Lubbock last week. Although United Spirit Arena hasn’t been full in years, the students still show up for big games and that energy has proven useful in some massive upsets over the last few seasons. Add in the experience of new coach Tubby Smith, and the road trip to Tech is going to be a much dicier proposition for Big 12 opponents this year. The fans are planning a “White Out” to greet Oklahoma in this one, but the Sooners have already proven to be road warriors in victories at Texas and Baylor.

The Sooners will have to prevent Tech from dominating the offensive glass and they will have to lock down Hannahs, who is 9-for-9 on threes in his last two games. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, will have a hard time slowing down an OU offense that seems to have a different hero step up every night. Cameron Clark gets most of the pub, but it’s been Buddy Hield who has emerged as the Robin to his Batman in Big 12 play. The sophomore from the Bahamas is averaging more than 18 points per game against Big 12 opponents and posted offensive ratings over 118 in four of the six contests.

Kansas at TCU; Saturday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

Kansas fans remember the team’s most recent visit to TCU all too well. The Horned Frog victory in 2013 was probably the most unexpected upset of the year in college hoops, and it became the second defeat of a three-game losing streak, something that had not been seen in Lawrence since 2005. You can be sure that Coach Self and the upperclassmen will have the Jayhawk freshmen ready for this one.

That’s an unfortunate thing for a TCU team that is already slogging through a terrible Big 12 campaign. The Horned Frog offense is ranked 292nd out of 351 Division I teams in adjusted efficiency, and it’s only been worse since stepping up to face conference foes. TCU ranks dead last in league games for offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage, and they rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage. The only offensive mark that even puts them in the top half is their free-throw rate, which measures how frequently they get to the line. Unfortunately, even though TCU is fourth-best in conference play when it comes to earning free throws, they are again dead last in actual free-throw percentage, making less than 60% of their attempts.

If one paragraph of awful stats wasn’t enough, I leave you with one final number regarding TCU’s nightmare season. With 12 games still left to go, Pomeroy already gives the Horned Frogs a 20% chance to finish winless in the Big 12. Their best opportunities to steal a victory come in home games against Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma, all contests in which TCU still only has a 23% chance to win.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas 2 0 W at Oklahoma, 90-83 W vs. Kansas State, 86-60 Mon at Iowa State Sat vs. Oklahoma State Iowa State 2 1 W vs. Baylor, 87-72 L at Oklahoma, 87-82 Mon vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Kansas State 2 1 W at TCU, 65-47 L at Kansas, 86-60 Tue vs. Oklahoma Sat vs. West Virginia West Virginia 2 1 W at Texas Tech, 89-86 (OT) L vs. Oklahoma State, 73-72 Mon vs. Texas Sat at Kansas State Oklahoma 2 1 L vs. Kansas, 90-83 W vs. Iowa State, 87-82 Tue at Kansas State Sat at Baylor Oklahoma State 2 1 W vs. Texas, 87-74 W at West Virginia, 73-72 Wed vs. TCU Sat at Kansas Baylor 1 1 L at Iowa State, 87-72 W vs. TCU, 88-62 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Texas 1 2 L at Oklahoma State, 87-74 W vs. Texas Tech, 67-64 Mon at West Virginia Sat vs. Iowa State TCU 0 3 L vs. Kansas State, 65-47 L at Baylor, 88-62 Wed at Oklahoma State Sat vs Texas Tech Texas Tech 0 3 L vs. West Virginia, 89-86 (OT) L at Texas, 67-64 Wed vs. Baylor Sat at TCU

The big picture

The Kansas Jayhawks took care of one challenger to the throne in convincing fashion on Saturday, walloping their in-state rivals by 26 points. Although the victory sent a clear message as to who reigns supreme in the Sunflower State, Kansas will have to survive a tough eight-day stretch to claim the same dominance in the Big 12. Over their next three games, the Jayhawks will travel to Iowa State before hosting Oklahoma State and Baylor at raucous Phog Allen Fieldhouse.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma remained just a half-game behind the Jayhawks by posting big wins in their Saturday games. The Cowboys needed a last-second three from Markel Brown to escape Morgantown with a victory, yet another reminder that every road win will be precious in a loaded Big 12 this season.

Oklahoma gave Iowa State the same memo in Norman, knocking the Cyclones from the ranks of the national unbeatens with an 87-82 win. The Sooners were given a dangerous five-game stretch to open conference play, but have so far navigated the minefields to a 2-1 start. Two tough road tests await OU at Kansas State and Baylor this week; survive those, and the Sooners will have proven to be legitimate contenders for a conference crown.

Weekday games

Texas at West Virginia; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/West Virginia game is available here.

Kansas at Iowa State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Tonight, fans at Hilton Coliseum will have revenge on their minds as the Kansas Jayhawks visit the Iowa State Cyclones. Last year, the teams played a thrilling overtime classic that was ultimately won by KU, but the victory was overshadowed by a late game no-call that Cyclone fans won’t soon forget. With Iowa State ahead by two and just five seconds left in the game, Elijah Johnson collided with ISU’s Georges Niang while trying to drive to the hoop for a tying bucket. The play didn’t result in a whistle, although fans wanted a charge call. Instead it was Niang who was whistled when he held Johnson while trying to rebound the missed shot, and EJ sunk the ensuing free throws to force an extra period.

Two days later, the conference office “acknowledge[d] that officiating errors were made at the end of regulation.” The damage was obviously done by that point, and Kansas went on to share the league crown with Kansas State. Even though the result didn’t prevent Iowa State from competing for the title — they finished three games behind the Jayhawks and Wildcats — the memory still stings the Ames faithful. With Iowa State’s DeAndre Kane reportedly ready to play after injuring his ankle at the end of Saturday’s loss to OU, the Cyclones should give KU and the scorching-hot Wayne Selden quite a battle.

Oklahoma at Kansas State; Tuesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Sooners were one of the surprise teams in the Big 12 during non-conference play, and they’ve continued to surprise in league play. Although OU couldn’t pull off the home upset against Kansas, they were able to hold serve against Iowa State and are now right in the middle of a very deep Big 12 pack.

Buddy Hield has emerged as an unstoppable force for the Sooners as Oklahoma’s opponents focus their energy on containing senior Cameron Clark. The sophomore from the Bahamas went medieval on Iowa State from long range, knocking down 6-of-12 during a 22-point performance. In three Big 12 contests, he’s averaging 20.7 points per game and finished just shy of a 62% effective field goal mark.

With Hield on fire and the Sooner offense clicking along at 1.177 adjusted points per possession, the stout Kansas State defense will have its hands full. The Wildcats currently boast the 13th-best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency, but their offense has lagged behind for much of the year. With newly-eligible freshman Jevon Thomas injecting a spark from the bench and Marcus Foster slicing through opposing defenses, Kansas State might finally be putting it together on that end of the court.

TCU at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

Teams often have to avoid falling into the trap of looking ahead to huge games, but that probably won’t be a problem for Oklahoma State against TCU on Wednesday night. The Cowboys will face a massive test when they travel to Lawrence on Saturday, but should first get a chance to rest their small core rotation in an easy home game against TCU.

Baylor at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

While TCU is still the league doormat, Texas Tech is much improved, despite returning almost all of the team that went 3-15 in the Big 12 last year. Baylor still shouldn’t have major problems against the Red Raiders, but many league foes have been surprised in Lubbock over the last few years.

Tech has done very well on the offensive glass this season, but could find that difficult against a formidable Baylor front line. However, if the Red Raiders can manage to hold their own and extend some possessions with offensive boards, they might be able to keep things close enough to make it interesting down the stretch. With Baylor playing at a glacial pace of just 64.1 possessions per game, it certainly increases the odds that lesser teams can hang around for longer than expected.

TEAM W L THIS WEEK NEXT WEEK Iowa State 2 0 W vs. Baylor, 87-72 Sat at Oklahoma Mon vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Kansas State 2 0 W at TCU, 65-47 Sat at Kansas Tue vs. Oklahoma Sat vs. West Virginia West Virginia 2 0 W at Texas Tech, 89-86 (OT) Sat vs. Oklahoma State Mon vs. Texas Sat at Kansas State Kansas 1 0 W at Oklahoma, 90-83 Sat vs. Kansas State Mon at Iowa State Sat vs. Oklahoma State Oklahoma 1 1 L vs. Kansas, 90-83 Sat vs. Iowa State Tue at Kansas State Sat at Baylor Oklahoma State 1 1 W vs. Texas, 87-74 Sat at West Virginia Wed vs. TCU Sat at Kansas Baylor 0 1 L at Iowa State, 87-72 Sat vs. TCU Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma TCU 0 2 L vs. Kansas State, 65-47 Sat at Baylor Wed at Oklahoma State Sat vs Texas Tech Texas 0 2 L at Oklahoma State, 87-74 Sat vs. Texas Tech Mon at West Virginia Sat vs. Iowa State Texas Tech 0 2 L vs. West Virginia, 89-86 (OT) Sat at Texas Wed vs. Baylor Sat at TCU

The big picture

There were no shocking results in the midweek games to shake up the standings, although Iowa State made an emphatic statement to those who doubted their undefeated start. The Cyclones thumped Baylor, 87-72, to keep the Bears winless at Hilton Coliseum through 12 all-time visits. DeAndre Kane had a historic performance, scoring 30 points while dishing out nine dimes, swiping five steals, and grabbing eight boards. Kane was just the fourth Division I player to achieve those numbers in a single game.

Today’s games

Iowa State at Oklahoma; Saturday, 11 A.M. CT (ESPNU)

The Cyclones have a dangerous game this morning as they take on the Sooners in Norman. If both teams can actually wake up for the early tip, it’s going to be an exciting, high-scoring affair. Oklahoma’s 74.3 adjusted possessions per game is the 10th-quickest pace in D-I hoops, while Iowa State is currently the 27th-fastest team with 72.2 adjusted possessions per game, according to Ken Pomeroy. The two teams are also both in the Top 11 nationally when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, so the scoreboard operator at Lloyd-Noble will likely have a sore finger in the morning. Pomeroy predicts a 91-86 final score in favor of Iowa State.

With that many points expected, the game could come down to who can get a few stops late in the game. For Oklahoma, the challenge will be figuring out how to limit the damage from a pair of matchup nightmares in Kane and Georges Niang. The Sooners do match up better with Iowa State than most teams, mirroring their smaller lineup that lacks a true center.

Cameron Clark will presumably draw the tough cover of Niang, as Spangler lacks the footspeed to keep up with a forward that can stretch the floor. Even if Clark can handle that challenge, though, the Sooner backcourt will have a very tough time with the big, strong point guard. Look for Coach Hoiberg to exploit that advantage by posting up Kane and letting him work on the smaller OU guards.

TCU at Baylor; Saturday, 12:30 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

The Bears have a prime opportunity to bounce back from their conference-opening loss to the Cyclones as they host TCU this afternoon before traveling to Lubbock on Wednesday night. Although the game is a mismatch on paper, Baylor has to take better care of the basketball if it hopes to avoid a catastrophic upset at home. The Bears have struggled all year with turnovers, but are coming off a horrible performance in Ames where they coughed it up on nearly 26% of their possessions. With Baylor averaging only 64 possessions per game — an adjusted tempo that ranks 329th out of 351 D-I teams — making mistakes that often could keep an overmatched TCU team in the game.

The Frogs, meanwhile, have shown improvement following the return of forward Amric Fields. After missing the first three games of the season recovering from knee surgery, Fields broke his hand in the Great Alaska Shootout and missed another four contests. Since his return, the junior has averaged more than 17 points and nearly seven boards in three games. If TCU wants to have any kind of a shot this afternoon, they’ll need a monster game from Fields and freshman center Karviar Shepherd against the huge Baylor front line.

Kansas State at Kansas; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN)

The Wildcats quietly took care of business in Fort Worth on Tuesday night, avoiding a letdown performance against TCU just two days after their big upset of Oklahoma State. The defending co-champs of the Big 12 now boast a 10-game winning streak as they head to Lawrence to square off against their most-hated rivals and the squad with whom they shared last year’s title. History is against the Wildcats, however, as they have won only twice in the last 18 meetings of the Sunflower State rivalry, and have not won at Phog Allen since 2006.

Although the Jayhawks faced one of the nation’s toughest non-conference slates, the four losses they have endured are unacceptable in the eyes of demanding KU fans. Kansas certainly has some issues to work on, namely finding someone who will step up in crunch time, and learning how to hang on to the basketball. Bill Self teams always improve from November to March, and this year’s Jayhawk team is one that nobody will want to face in the field of 68. Just don’t try telling that to the Jayhawk faithful if they happen to lose this afternoon.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

West Virginia comes into this game with the nation’s 26th-best three-point percentage, having knocked down almost 40% of their looks this season. That long-range attack will certainly be tested this afternoon against an Oklahoma State team that uses a ton of pressure on the perimeter and has frustrated opponents to the tune of a 28.8% mark beyond the arc. Although the Cowboys are clearly the better team on paper, road wins are always tough to earn in conference, so this one could come down to who imposes their will on the perimeter.

It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma State is coming off a win against Texas in which the team posted a free-throw rate of 102%, meaning that they actually tried more free throws than field goals. Their guards are quick and have earned a ton of free throws all year thanks to their aggressive play and the new rules emphasis, but they can’t get frustrated this afternoon if they don’t get the calls they are used to. Most refs tend to enjoy living, and if they whistle a physical West Virginia defense for every touch foul, it might be tough for the three-man crew to make it out of the mountains intact.

Texas Tech at Texas; Saturday, 7 P.M. CT (LHN)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas Tech/Texas game will be available later today.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Iowa State 1 0 W vs Northern Illinois, 99-63 W at Texas Tech, 73-62 Tue vs. Baylor Sat at Oklahoma Kansas State 1 0 W vs. George Washington, 72-55 W vs. Oklahoma State, 74-71 Tue at TCU Sat at Kansas Oklahoma 1 0 L vs. Louisiana Tech, 102-98 (OT) W at Texas, 88-85 Wed vs. Kansas Sat vs. Iowa State West Virginia 1 0 W at TCU, 74-69 Mon at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma State Baylor 0 0 W vs. Oral Roberts, 81-55 W vs. Savannah State, 80-50 Tue at Iowa State Sat vs. TCU Kansas 0 0 W vs. Toledo, 93-83 L vs. San Diego State, 61-57 Wed at Oklahoma Sat vs. Kansas State Oklahoma State 0 1 W vs. Robert Morris, 92-66 L at Kansas State, 74-71 Wed vs. Texas Sat at West Virginia TCU 0 1 L vs. West Virginia, 74-69 Tue vs. Kansas State Sat at Baylor Texas 0 1 W vs. Rice, 66-44 L vs. Oklahoma, 88-85 Wed at Oklahoma State Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas Tech 0 1 W vs. Mount St. Mary’s, 100-69 L vs. Iowa State, 73-62 Mon vs. West Virginia Sat at Texas

The big picture

The league’s two preseason favorites both suffered losses over the weekend, but only one will have an impact on the 2014 Big 12 race. Kansas dropped one at home to San Diego State, snapping its non-conference home winning streak at 68 games. With the Jayhawks not opening conference play until their trip to Norman on Wednesday, the early January stumble won’t hurt them as they try to extend their nine-year streak of winning or sharing the Big 12 title.

Oklahoma State, however, quickly went off-track in their efforts to break that Jayhawk streak. The Cowboys fell in their league opener at the Octagon of Doom on Saturday, becoming the second big scalp for a Kansas State team that also knocked off Gonzaga in mid-December. While the loss hurt OSU in the standings, their biggest loss of the week came when Michael Cobbins ruptured his left Achilles in a game against Robert Morris. He underwent surgery days later and is out for the year.

OSU may have also lost another key piece when Stevie Clark was arrested for marijuana possession on Wednesday. He was previously suspended for four games in late November and December, reportedly also for marijuana issues. Although the Cowboys have one of the nation’s best point guards in Marcus Smart, Clark was averaging more than 16 minutes per game in his nine appearances as Smart’s backup. He did not play in Saturday’s loss to KSU.

It’s also worth noting that for the first time in their short Big 12 history, the Mountaineers of West Virginia are over .500 in league play. Last year’s team reached the break-even mark after two, ten, and 12 league games, but could never quite get to a winning record.

Weekday games

West Virginia at Texas Tech; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

One frequent complaint from Huggins after his team’s move to the Big 12 was the excessive amount of travel required for a school that is essentially marooned from the rest of the conference. West Virginia’s closest conference-mate is Iowa State, which is more than 750 miles away by air. With most of the league even futher away in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, the conference office helped WVU out by scheduling short weekend road swings. After Saturday’s game in Fort Worth, the ‘Eers only had to travel up to Lubbock for tonight’s game, and they will also enjoy a Stillwater-Waco road pairing later in the season.

The travel arrangement should — in theory — keep the West Virginia players more fresh by cutting down on the travel fatigue, something that may actually matter against a Texas Tech program that is already making progress under new coach Tubby Smith. For the first time in what seems like eons, the Red Raiders avoided any baffling losses to terrible teams in non-con play and look like they might not be a doormat in the Big 12 this year. Although Tech didn’t pull off any non-conference upsets, the team did take care of business against bottom-feeders, and competed well against LSU in a mid-December home game. Pomeroy calls this one a toss-up, giving West Virginia a 54% chance to win and predicting a one-point game.

Baylor at Iowa State; Tuesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

I don’t have the time to see where this game ranks for the season in terms of tempo disparity, but it’s certainly one that has to be near the top. Iowa State is plugging along at 71.4 adjusted possessions per game, the 39th-quickest pace in D-I hoops to date. Baylor, meanwhile, has been more than content to slow it down while posting a 12-1 mark in non-conference play. The Bears average just 63.3 possessions per game, making them the 13th-slowest squad out of 351 Division I teams.

It’s always easier for a slow team to try to impact the pace of a game, but the Bears will still have to overcome Hilton Magic if they want to start their conference campaign with a win. In the two seasons of full round-robin Big 12 play, Iowa State is 16-2 at home. Baylor has also yet to win at Hilton Coliseum since the formation of the Big 12, going 0-10 in Ames.

Kansas State at TCU; Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)

The Wildcats have certainly turned things around since losing to Northern Colorado in the season opener. Saturday’s win over Oklahoma State was the team’s second victory against a Top 25 in the last three weeks, and it was their ninth-straight win overall. The Wildcats have one of the nation’s stingiest perimeter defenses, limiting opponents to just a 26% success rate behind the arc. That ranks the team fourth-best in Division I, a fact that Oklahoma State can surely attest to after going just 3-for-14 at Bramlage on Saturday.

Conveniently enough, Kansas State now faces a TCU team that is coming off its best three-point performance of the year. The Horned Frogs knocked down 9-of-19 from behind the arc in their loss to West Virginia, well above the 33.5% season average they brought into the contest. Kansas State does an excellent job limiting looks by their opponents’ best long-range threats, meaning that freshman swingman Brandon Parrish and point guard Kyan Anderson might not find much room on the perimeter at Daniel-Meyer Coliseum on Tuesday night.

Kansas at Oklahoma; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Sooners have been treated to a brutal five-game stretch to open their Big 12 campaign this year, but they tipped things off with a win in Austin on Saturay night. If Oklahoma can steal a road win against Kansas or Iowa State this week, they will certainly announce their presence as a top-flight team in a very deep Big 12. The Jayhawks are 0-2 in true road games this season, although those losses came against Top 25 competition in Colorado and Florida. Oklahoma managed to pick off KU at Lloyd-Noble last season, so Kansas should be on high alert when they arrive in Norman on Wednesday.

The biggest challenge for Kansas will likely be simply keeping pace with the Oklahoma offense. The Jayhawks are coming off of a loss to SDSU in which they posted an eFG of only 25% in the first half and Perry Ellis shot 1-for-8 from the floor. OU’s defense is nothing to write home about, but Kansas still has to get out of their funk on the offensive end if they want to keep up with a Sooner team that has the nation’s 14th-most efficent offense.

Texas at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

LRT’s full preview of the Texas/Oklahoma State game will be available on Wednesday.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas State 8 2 W at Texas Tech, 68-59 W vs. Iowa State, 79-70 Mon at Kansas Sat vs. Baylor Kansas 7 3 L at TCU, 62-55 L at Oklahoma, 72-66 Mon vs. Kansas State Sat vs. Texas Oklahoma State 7 3 W vs. Baylor, 69-67 (OT) W at Texas, 72-59 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Baylor 6 4 L at Oklahoma State, 69-67 (OT) W vs. Texas Tech, 75-48 Wed vs. West Virginia Sat at Kansas State Iowa State 6 4 W vs. Oklahoma, 83-64 L at Kansas State, 79-70 Wed at Texas Sat vs. TCU Oklahoma 6 4 L at Iowa State, 83-64 W vs. Kansas, 72-66 Mon vs. TCU Sat at Oklahoma State West Virginia 5 5 W vs. Texas, 60-58 W at TCU, 63-50 Wed at Baylor Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas 2 8 L at West Virginia, 60-58 L vs. Oklahoma State, 72-59 Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Kansas Texas Tech 2 8 L vs. Kansas State, 68-59 L at Baylor, 75-48 Wed vs. Oklahoma State Sat at West Virginia TCU 1 9 W vs. Kansas, 62-55 L vs. West Virginia, 63-50 Mon at Oklahoma Sat at Iowa State

The big picture

There are hits and there are misses. And then, there are misses.

Two weeks ago, in this very space, I posited that the loser of the Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd could essentially be eliminated from the conference race, even though they mathematically would remain alive for weeks. “The Jayhawks are favored to win in every game they have left,” I wrote, crediting the number-crunching skills of Ken Pomeroy. “With odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.”

Here we are, four games later, and I’ve been exposed as having the predictive skills of the Titanic’s engineers. The Jayhawks have lost three straight games for the first time in nearly eight years, and still have hostile road games left against Oklahoma State and Iowa State, plus a trip to face Baylor in Waco. And as for the loser of that Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd? The Sooners find themselves just a game behind KU and two games off the league lead, with the title race still wide open.

While it’s fun to laugh at how quickly my words were made to look foolish, it’s certainly worth noting just how shocking Kansas’ tailspin is. Not only were the Jayhawks favored by Pomeroy in each of those three games, but the cumulative probability of the team losing all three games was 0.196%. Not 19 percent, but 19 hundredths of a percent. If some Missouri fan had a bit too much to drink in Vegas and put down a few bucks on that moneyline parlay ten days ago, Allen Fieldhouse would probably have been turned into the world’s biggest Braum’s by now.

Even with the Jayhawks reeling, it’s tough to bet against Bill Self. Kansas has won or shared eight consecutive Big 12 titles, and the team still sits just a game out of first with a chance to knock off the league leaders tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. With four weeks to go, there’s certainly more than enough time for Kansas to get back on track and extend that conference-title streak to a ninth season. The road to the Big 12 title could still very well run through Lawrence, but now there are at least some viable contenders hoping to put in a detour.

Weekday games

TCU at Oklahoma; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Kansas at Kansas State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Iowa State at Texas; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3.com)
West Virginia at Baylor; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)