The Longhorns march into Big 12 play this afternoon with a perfect 14-0 mark, tied for the school’s best start in the modern era. Texas opened the season with 20 wins in 1932 and with a school-record 23 wins in 1923. While a chance to match those rarefied numbers is still weeks away and would require some tough road wins, the Longhorns do have a shot to storm into conference play with an opening slate that includes Colorado, Iowa State, and Texas A&M.

This afternoon’s opener comes against the Buffaloes, who were picked by most outlets to finish dead last in the conference. Don’t be surprised, however, if Jeff Bzdelik‘s team manages to climb out of the league cellar this year. Last season, the Buffs put scares into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, despite having a very young team. They have added a solid five-man recruiting class to the mix, and finally have the offensive potency to move past the slow, grind-it-out style of basketball that Bzdelik had to implement in past seasons just to keep his team in the games.

Historical numbers are certainly not on Colorado’s side this afternoon. The Buffaloes have lost 26-straight road games in conference play, dating all the way back to January of 2006. Colorado has also lost twelve straight conference openers, while the Longhorns have won eleven consecutive home openers in conference play. If you put any stock into historical trends, things don’t look good for the visitors.

By the numbers

As we’ve mentioned already, the Buffaloes are no longer a slow-down team that hopes to win a game in the 50- or 60-point range. Their 69 possessions per game is soundly in the middle of the NCAA, although it is still a good deal slower than Texas’ 76-plus possessions per contest. While the Buffaloes may try to slow things down just a bit to mitigate the talent discrepancies in this game, this season they are certainly more capable of playing an up-tempo game with the Longhorns.

The thing that the Buffaloes do best is earn points at the line. They are one of the top 25 teams in the country at getting to the foul stripe, as their quick dribble drives and constant motion on offense often leads to opponents getting behind the play and hacking in desperation. Once Colorado gets to the line, they also make it worth their time. The Buffs are second in the nation with a 78.2% success rate at the stripe, and even led the country at one point earlier in the week.

Colorado is a smaller team that typically runs four guards and one undersized forward. Many of these “guards” actually play more of a swingman role for the team, but they are usually hanging around the perimeter unless they are driving to the basket. Even the Buffalo post player is often found near the three-point line, setting screens that open up driving lanes and get the team’s offense running. All of this adds up to absolutely awful offensive rebounding numbers. The Buffaloes grab barely more than a quarter of their misses, which is only 318th out of the 347 D-I schools.

The Buffaloes also make up for their size disadvantages by running a ton of different zone looks that confuse opponents and allow them to press the issue far from the basket. Unfortunately, when bigger teams manage to work it inside, the fouls pile up quickly for Colorado. The free-throw rate for the Buffaloes on defense is 309th in the nation, and the team’s platoon of big men has combined to foul out seven times this year.

Meet the Buffaloes

The biggest reason for the improvement in Colorado’s performance is the addition of five newcomers to the roster, although freshman Shannon Sharpe is medically redshirting this year after pre-season knee surgery. Coach Bzdelik addressed the team’s lack of height by adding 6’11″ Aussie freshman Shane Harris-Tunks. He still needs some seasoning, but already has a good skill set thanks to his time spent at the Australian Institute of Sport.

Junior-college transfer Marcus Relphorde adds a tenacious rebounder to the roster, along with a solid passer in the high post. He also brings three-point range, which is a key in Bzdelik’s offense. While Relphorde can knock down the long-range shots, he’s struggled a bit from behind the arc so far this year. He’s made just 32.5% of his attempts, but is capable of much more. He certainly knows that, as he keeps firing up the long bombs — so many, in fact, that he’s second on the team in attempts.

The jewel of the class, however, is freshman Alec Burks. In his senior season of high school, Burks was named Gatorade’s Player of the Year in the state of Missouri, and he’s quickly making an impact in the college ranks. At 6’6″, he actually leads the team in rebounds and is second in scoring with 16.3 points per game. He is quick off the dribble, which opens up his teammates for good looks when he penetrates. His long wingspan is also very valuable when Colorado throws out their 1-3-1 zone and traps opponents on the wings.

The star of team is still Cory Higgins, who can beat you any way you want it. He’s a solid shooter, hitting just a shade under 50% from the field, and worked hard on his outside shot in the offseason. That work has led to a 40% mark from behind the arc this season, up from 36% last year. He’s also nearly automatic when he gets to the line, where last season he had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive makes. This year, he’s knocked down 86% of his attempts from the line, and his quick attack on the dribble-drive means that defenders are often sending him there.

The other thing Higgins brings to the table is a set of really quick hands. He’s leading the team in steals, and was even near the top of the Big 12 ranks in that category last season. Texas has shown its moments of sloppiness and carelessness with the ball, so they will have to be careful when the junior guard is nearby on defense.

The Buffaloes score their points by driving and finding the open man, and often when the defenses collapse that means the open man is somewhere behind the arc. Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, but so far this season they have shown that they are content with stopping teams inside and daring opponents to beat them from outside. This could lead to a big day for Dwight Thorne II, who led the team in three-pointers last year and also was tops in accuracy from behind the arc. At the beginning of this season, he was the team’s starting point guard, but recently sophomore Nate Tomlinson has reclaimed those duties. As the sixth man, Thorne could be a key to this game with his long-range marksmanship.

The big man opening up Thorne on the perimeter is Austin Dufault, the lone forward in the starting lineup. Although he’s the team’s tallest starter at 6’9″, his biggest role in the offense is setting screens outside. Dufault was named Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota as a high school senior, and it’s his outside shot that sets him apart from other big men. That long-range threat is huge in the Colorado offense, as teams who choose to double the ballhandler after a screen will often pay when Dufault knocks down a triple. The big man is also second in rebounding on a team that will have issues with that this afternoon, so he’ll have to come up huge on the glass against the Texas frontcourt.

Sophomore point guard Tomlinson has made huge strides after a rookie year where he often struggled with the new offense he was asked to run. In addition to being a solid floor general, he’s also a solid shooter. Tomlinson takes less than five shots a game, though, so his scoring impact is usually negligible. If Texas leaves him open, you can probably bank on the Aussie sophomore tickling the twine.

Also coming off the bench for Coach Bzdelik are Keegan Hornbuckle and Casey Crawford. Hornbuckle is the fifth member of the recruiting class, and is a quality-shooting small forward. He has fairly limited minutes, though, so he will likely have a small impact on today’s game. Crawford is in his second year at CU after transferring from Wake Forest. He’s used mostly to spell Dufault, and is another big man who can knock down the three when he’s out there setting screens.

Keys to the game

The biggest advantage Texas has in this game — besides the talent differential — is a much bigger lineup. The Longhorns must dominate the rebounding battle, especially on the defensive end. Colorado is a very well-coached team that is loaded with good shooters, so limiting the Buffaloes to one-and-done possessions should squash any thoughts of an upset.

Beyond crashing the glass, the other main focus for Texas will be shutting down Higgins. In Boulder last February, the guard went off for 34 points as the Buffs pushed the Longhorns to overtime. This Texas team is much more sound on defense, but they had a lot of problems with another quick guard on Tuesday night, Arkansas’ Courtney Fortson. The Longhorns found themselves behind the play quite often, and their frustration fouls piled up. Texas will need to communicate on defense and help each other out if they hope to limit Higgins’ effectiveness.

While it’s been an issue all season long, Texas has certainly improved their free throw shooting in the last few games. As often as Colorado fouls opponents, though, tonight knocking down the freebies will be even more key than usual. The Buffaloes can level the talent disparity by making Texas earn their points, so we’ll likely see a ton of free throw attempts for the Horns this afternoon. Make them, and Texas should cruise to victory. Miss too many, and the final score will be a lot closer than it should be.

When Texas and Colorado played just three weeks ago in Boulder, Dexter Pittman was a non-factor. The big man played awful defense in the post, and as a result Coach Rick Barnes let him sit on the bench for most of the game. Pittman saw the floor for just 12 minutes in the Coors Event Center, and dropped in only four points.

Fast-forward to yesterday, and it’s a different story. Dex was absolutely unstoppable, and the Buffaloes looked completely lost when it came to defending the big man. Pittman threw down a multitude of rim-rocking dunks en route to a 26-point performance, and even added a pair of assists when Colorado tried to double down on him in the blocks.

Defensively, the Longhorns also made huge strides from their initial meeting with the Buffaloes, relying mostly on a zone look in this contest. Texas cut their fouls from 24 in the February 14th game to just 14 in yesterday’s win, which in turn resulted in 10 less free throw attempts for Colorado. It’s a good thing, too — the Buffs were nearly perfect from the line in this game, missing just one of their 19 attempts.

Without the bevy of free throw attempts to buoy his scoring, super soph Cory Higgins had only five points for Colorado after dropping 34 in the first game between these two teams. In the previous match-up, Higgins had nine from the charity stripe, while he only had four attempts from the line in this one.

The only troubling aspect for Texas in this one was the backcourt play. While they did a great job working the ball inside, where Texas enjoyed a 38-20 scoring advantage, the guards seemed just a bit… off. Dogus Balbay reverted to his early-season play at random points, playing a bit out of control and trying to force the issue. His bi-polar ballhandling only resulted in one turnover, but there were a handful of close calls. The most redemptive part of Balbay’s game was a pair of clutch defensive rebounds, something the Longhorns needed in their zone set.

In addition, Justin Mason and A.J. Abrams sometimes played a bit too actively on the defensive end, resulting in five fouls for the pair. But even in those instances where they overplayed passing lanes, the highly effective team defense of Texas was able to communicate, recover, and reset. Although it was just a game against the league’s worst team, it is a very reassuring sign to only have these minor things as issues we can nitpick.

On the injury front, Texas came out of this one in fairly good shape. Both Pittman and Gary Johnson had some ankle issues during the game, but both continued to play and were effective. Johnson’s injury was the most concerning, as he missed action in three straight games near the end of the year. But since the small forward was back on the court just minutes later, it seems that he will still be able to play a key role as the tournament continues.

The win advances the Longhorns to the quarterfinal round, where they will have a re-match with Kansas State. The Wildcats previously defeated Texas in an overtime contest at the Erwin Center on January 31st.

Texas opens the Big 12 tournament with one of those awful games that means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. A win over the league’s worst team, Colorado, does absolutely nothing for the Longhorns’ computer profile. In fact, playing against a team with such an awful record actually hurts the numbers that the NCAA Selection Committee is looking at as they fill out the bracket. In short, Texas has nothing to gain by beating the Buffaloes, but unfortunately has a lot to lose.

Stumbling against Colorado — something that Baylor did in last season’s tournament as the 5-seed — could easily cost the Longhorns a seed line or two when the NCAA brackets come out next Sunday. And for a team that has been vacillating between 7- and 8-seeds in most projections for the last four weeks, losing ground on the S-curve is a recipe for disaster. The Longhorns have to make a showing in this week’s tournament if they want to avoid a potential match-up with a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA’s second round. Unfortunately, that run will have to start with this damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t trap game.

If you missed the game preview from the first time these two teams met, you will want to check it out for a detailed look at the Colorado players, their style of basketball, and how they match up with the Longhorns. If you’ve already read over that fine piece of literature, carry on for a quick preview of today’s tilt…

The previous meeting

Although Texas needed overtime for an 85-76 win, the Longhorns actually played remarkably well for most of the game. A.J. Abrams dropped 29, while Damion James had a double-double with 21 points and 14 rebounds. Texas fans will remember that James missed two opportunities to win the game at the free throw line in regulation, but his performance in overtime is what sealed the deal.

It wasn’t just the two stars who were clicking, as the Longhorns shot over 57% from the field and were seemingly unstoppable. Where they tripped up was in allowing the much shorter and guard-oriented Colorado team to grab just two rebounds less than the Longhorns. As we mentioned in the game preview of the first match-up, the lineup and style of play that Colorado coach Jeff Bzdelik employs means that Texas should be absolutely dominating the glass when these two teams meet.

Texas was also completely unable to shut down super soph Cory Higgins, who went off for 34 points, nine of which came at the line. Higgins shot 55% from the field, including a 3-of-5 afternoon from long range. Jermyl Jackson-Wilson doubled his season average with 10 against the Longhorns, while grabbing three key offensive rebounds in the game.

Since then…

When these teams first met on Valentine’s Day, the Buffaloes were fresh off a string of games where they had been putting scares into the top teams of the Big 12 Conference. Since then, Colorado has lost its remaining six games, but continued to play tough basketball that kept them in the contests until late.

Although the Buffaloes suffered a 21-point blowout loss at home against Oklahoma State followed by an 18-point embarrassment versus Baylor in Waco, they hung tough against quality teams from the top half of the conference in the other four losses. While none of those games were as impressive as the mid-season games that Colorado played on the road against Oklahoma and Kansas, their performance shows that these young Buffaloes are not yet throwing in the towel.

Higgins is one player in particular who is still giving 110% every night. In the last three games of the season, he averaged 23 points per contest on 49% shooting and swiped five steals. Unfortunately for the Buffs, Higgins still struggled with hanging on to the basketball. The Wildcats forced him to cough it up six times in the season finale on Saturday, giving him a final line on the year that includes a troubling 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Keys to the game

Dominate the rebounding battle – As it was in our first game preview for Colorado, the No. 1 key for this game is rebounding. Texas is much bigger than Colorado, and the Buffs’ affinity for a four-guard look with a post that sets high screens means that there is no excuse for the poor job the Longhorns did on the glass during the first match-up. Today Texas needs to keep Colorado off the boards — particularly Jackson-Wilson on the offensive end — and convert those solid defensive stands into one-and-done possessions.

Turn Higgins into a mere mortal – There is no doubt that this sophomore sensation is a great player, and next season could even lead Colorado out of the bottom rungs of the league standings. But if you take away even half of his 34-point performance from the February 14th game, Texas wins that one in a cakewalk. The Longhorns can’t sell out to guard Higgins, but he is by far their biggest offensive threat, and he warrants added defensive attention today. Texas needs to communicate on defense so they don’t lose the little guard as they fight through the infinite number of screens that Colorado is going to throw out there.

Play injury-free – Rather than a key to winning this game, we’re going with the big picture for No. 3 in our rundown. As we mentioned in the lead, Texas is in a no-win situation with this game. Losing it will cost them a few seed lines, but losing any of their key players in a win is no better. While you can’t really plan for a game with no tweaked ankles or knees, let’s all pull for the Longhorns to come out healthy on the other side of this one.

Now that LRT is in its third year of existence, it’s a known fact that there will be a rough stretch of traveling hidden somewhere in each season’s schedule. The first year, it was an eight day span that included trips to Stillwater, Philadelphia, and Lincoln. Last year, it was two lengthy trips via car to Norman and Iowa State just days apart.

This season, that time is right now. Fresh off the heels of a there-and-back shot to Lincoln, this weekend has given us the pleasure of a Saturday contest in Boulder followed by a tilt in College Station just two days later. It’s sometimes tough to look forward to a game when you’ve just spent nearly as many hours in a car (33) as you did in the mountain town you visited (39). It’s often even tougher to look forward to that following game on just over an hour of sleep, especially when you consider the recent losing streak Texas has enjoyed on its road trips to College Station (4). We’re certainly not complaining, but when your brain is running on sleep debt, these are the kinds of numbers that run through your head.

For now, it’s off to work where we’ll pound the energy drinks and look forward to the possibility of exorcising the Reed Arena demons that have haunted Texas. We’ll be back this afternoon with a brief refresher on the Aggies, but in the meantime you can revisit the game preview from the first match-up in Austin.

It seemed like a familiar script for Longhorn fans. Build a big lead, let a team storm back into it, and then blow the game by a slim margin. So when a nine point Texas lead had evaporated in only three minutes, it seemed like the inevitable ending was just moments away.

But Damion James was fouled with only 1.6 seconds left on the clock and the score knotted at 72. Finally, it was a chance to re-write the script. He headed to the line, facing directly into the black and gold student section, where the Buffalo fans leaned down and pounded on their seatbacks. He needed to make just one to seal the win. This was it. Texas could put the demons to rest.

Until both free throws clanged off the iron.

With the weight of those misses on his shoulder, James played like a man possessed in the ensuing five-minute overtime. He ripped down six of his 14 rebounds in the extra session and added six of his 21 points as Texas pulled away. Ironically, two of those points came at the line, with the lead safely in hand.

The problem is that most Texas fans won’t remember that. They will only remember the pair of awful metallic thuds as James missed his chance to be the hero.

Fans also won’t remember the fact that the Longhorn offense played exceptionally well for the second straight game, shooting a season-high 57.4% from the field. The previous high had come just four days prior, when Texas blazed past Oklahoma State with a 52.2% clip. As a result of the hot shooting, Texas’ efficiency numbers were also sky high once again. The Longhorns posted a 124.5 offensive efficiency rating, their third-highest performance of the season.

The one constant in both of those games? Significant minutes for point guard Dogus Balbay. The Turkish sophomore played 37 of the 45 minutes against Colorado after seeing the floor for 33 against Oklahoma State. Prior to those two games, Balbay was averaging just 15.6 minutes per contest.

His presence on the court makes the offense flow, which was painfully obvious when he was taken out with roughly ten minutes left in the first half. In the two minutes he sat on the bench, Texas seemed content to pass the ball around the arc, yet still turned it over twice. With the ball in his hands, the Longhorns throw away far fewer possessions, as he’s posted a ridiculous 7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in these last two games.

Balbay’s presence also opens things up for sharpshooter A.J. Abrams. The senior guard had 29 points, and scored 20 against Oklahoma State. In the previous five games, he was averaging 15 points per contest. While the scoring boost is a nice result, the real reason that Balbay’s emergence is a massive development is the fact that it keeps A.J. from forcing bad shots. In these last two games, Abrams scored his 49 points on 61% shooting, including 56% behind the arc. In the previous four, he shot 38% from the field. Simply put, Balbay makes Abrams better.

Three-point defense was not a huge issue throughout the game, but once again it reared its head at the worst possible time. Colorado shot just 5-of-14 from long range, but hit two out of three attempts in the second half as they clawed into at a ten-point Texas advantage. The Longhorns have an awful tendency to let teams eat away at huge deficits by making hay from behind the arc. Against a team with more long-range consistency than the Buffaloes, that will be deadly.

Texas also struggled on the glass, which is quite embarrassing when you look at the height disparity between the two teams. The Buffs play with four guards for most of the game, none of which are taller than 6’6″. Add in the fact that Colorado’s leading rebounder was their 6’5″ off guard, and it’s a definite cause for concern. The worst offender for Texas was Gary Johnson, who laid a big fat goose egg on the stat sheet despite being the team’s second-best man on the glass. The Longhorns are going to face much stronger rebounders in Oklahoma and Kansas, so a performance like this will absolutely scuttle any chances of upsetting those teams.

Obviously, the collapse down the stretch is also a huge reason for concern. After all, it seems like it’s only about the 874th time that Texas has done it this year. But Longhorn fans can take some solace in the fact that, for once, this team did make the necessary plays to pull out the victory.

The Longhorns travel to Boulder, Colorado today in a game that, at first blush, looks like an easy win on paper. And for a Texas team that is trying to get back on the right track after a brutal stretch where they lost three games by a combined total of eleven points, it couldn’t come at a better time. But this Colorado squad is playing much better basketball than their record would indicate, and the mile-plus elevation of Boulder has often made the Coors Events Center a dangerous gym for visiting conference opponents.

The Buffaloes have only one win in the Big 12, a home victory over Iowa State. And although those same Cyclones absolutely decimated Colorado in Ames on Wednesday night by a 70-42 count, Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffs have been putting a scare into the league’s top teams. Colorado played both Kansas State and Nebraska to narrow two-point losses and fell five points short against both Kansas in Lawrence and Oklahoma in Norman.

As if the recent play by Colorado wasn’t reason enough to harbor some doubts about today’s game, the Coors Events Center has given Texas fits in the past. The Final Four team suffered a loss here in 2003, getting absolutely shot out of the building by a red-hot Colorado team, 93-80. Two years later, the Buffs repeated the accomplishment with an 88-79 win on its home floor. Even the convincing 102-78 win by Kevin Durant and the Longhorns in 2007 was an absolute battle for the first 24 minutes or so. While the preview below will likely lead you to believe that Texas should cruise back home with a victory, things likely won’t be easy.

By the numbers

There is nothing remarkable about the Colorado offense or defense, as their efficiency numbers in both categories rank almost exactly in the middle of the NCAA pack. What is troublesome for Coach Bzdelik, though, is the fact that their margin is actually a -0.2, meaning that they give up 0.2 points per possession more than they score. He counters that problem with a Princeton offense that burns clock, so the Buffs typically only see 63 possessions per game, cutting down on the opportunities for their opponents to exploit that statistic.

Colorado struggles to rebound, particularly on the offensive side of things. They grab only 21.4% of their opportunities on the offensive glass, which puts is 342nd in the country for that metric. Three hundred and forty-second. Out of 344 teams. Quality. This inability to rebound is mostly a result of the four-out, one-in look that Colorado runs, along with the fact that their only post player is often setting screens up high and is nowhere near the basket when shots are released. Texas is already a solid rebounding team, but if they can limit Colorado to one-and-done possessions today, a win should come easily.

Another number that jumps out of Ken Pomeroy’s statistical overload is the fact that Colorado tends to win only when it keeps its opponents off the free throw line. Their season average for free throw rate is just in the middle of the pack for the NCAA, but in their losses it nearly doubles. Texas should attack the Colorado zone and draw fouls rather than simply settling for mid-range or three-point jumpers.

Meet the Buffs

Colorado runs only seven or eight deep on any given night, and has had the same starting five for nearly the entire season. Bzdelik’s team is very young after losing Richard Roby, Marcus Hall, and Marcus King-Stockton to graduation, and he is hoping that giving the core group of players a huge chunk of minutes will pay dividends in future seasons.

Australian freshman Nate Tomlinson is slotted at the point, and he’s doing a commendable job running the Princeton offense with no experience. Early in the season, you could see him struggling with the new system, as he actually had more turnovers than assists. But as the season has marched on into conference play, his confidence is up and he’s making less unforced errors. Texas must keep an eye on him today, as Tomlinson is deadly from behind the arc. His 43% success rate from three-point range leads the team, and is going to be needed for Colorado to hang around in today’s contest.

The leading scorer for Colorado is sophomore guard Cory Higgins, son of former NBA player Rod Higgins. He’s one of the best free throw shooters in the country at 86%, and had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive made free throws earlier this season. Higgins can attack the basket with ease, so it’s important for Texas to turn away his drives before he draws the fouls inside and converts the nearly-automatic points at the charity stripe. In addition, Higgins is at the top of the conference in steals, so a turnover-prone Longhorn team will have to take care of the ball when he’s nearby.

The other Buffalo who is a surefire offensive threat is Dwight Thorne II, a cousin of former A&M standout Acie Law. (As an aside, when you consider that Law is actually Acie Law IV, it makes you wonder why that family can’t come up with any new names.) Thorne is another long-range gunner, having hit on 42% of his three-point tries this year. Colorado’s offense keys on backdoor cuts and open three-point looks, so Dwight is going to be needed if the Buffaloes hope for an upset today.

Freshman Austin Dufault is the lone big man in Bzdelik’s version of the Princeton offense, and he seems to be making a good adjustment to the new system. He was Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota last season, and it is easy to see why. Not only can Dufault score inside and clean up the glass when he is actually in position, but he also showcases a nice jumper out to seventeen feet or so. While he’s not going to be an impact player in the league anytime soon, Dufault seems like a four-year guy who is going to be an absolute headache for opponents in his last season or two.

Jermyl Jackson-Wilson is a bull of a player despite checking in at just 6’6″. He fights hard for those offensive rebounds that seem to elude the Buffs, and prefers to muscle his way in for closer looks. With only five points and four rebounds a game, he’s not a huge contributer on the stat sheet, but his energy and hustle seem to make the difference on a few key plays in each contest.

Bzdelik really only utilizes three players off the bench, although he occasionally looks deeper down the pine when things are going horribly wrong. Levi Knutson is a reserve guard who is really struggling this season, hitting only 15% of his three point attempts after being the team’s marksman last year. Big man Casey Crawford will be called upon to spell Dufault on occasion, but he is also a quality long-range shooter. Trey Eckloff is something of a project, as he was just 17 when he hit the CU campus and has had difficulty adjusting to the college game. At 6’9″, his inside presence will be needed in the future, but for now he is relegated to the bench.

Keys to the game

Kill them on the glass – When there are often four Colorado players on the court that are 6’6″ or less, and the lone big man is often at the top of the key setting screens, the rebounds should come quite easily for Texas. The Longhorns shouldn’t have to especially try to control the rebounding battle, but should dominate on the glass and limit the number of looks for the Buffaloes. In addition, Texas should hopefully see a spike in the number of second-chance points they earn this afternoon.

Limit the threes – Colorado is going to get quite a few easy layups as a result of their Princeton offense, and there is likely little that Texas can do to stop it. But the Buffaloes are not going to beat the Longhorns by piling up a ton of layups. The thing that could keep them in this game is hot outside shooting from Thorne and Tomlinson, so Texas must ensure that those two guards do not get any easy looks from behind the arc.

Use Balbay to dissect the D – Things seemed to open up with the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup on Tuesday night against Oklahoma State. Connor Atchley enjoyed more open looks and took advantage of them, A.J. Abrams was freed up to the tune of 20 points, and the Longhorns enjoyed a salty assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1. The Buffaloes love to throw a ton of different defensive looks at their opponents, so Texas will need Balbay to probe the different zones and find the open lanes and open men. If he’s not the one handling the ball, Colorado could enjoy a fair share of Longhorn turnovers.

Top 25 Action

#11 Texas Longhorns 78, Baylor Bears 72 – The Longhorns escaped Waco with their 23rd consecutive win over Baylor, leaning on a nineteen point night from sharpshooter A.J. Abrams. The senior guard was hot early, but went through long stretches of absolute silence, including a nine-minute scoreless bout to open the second half. Damion James logged another double-double in the winning effort, posting a line of fourteen and twelve. Full post-game thoughts and numbers will be headed your way this afternoon.

#16 Purdue Boilermakers 64, Wisconsin Badgers 63 – He only had eight total points on the night, but Robbie Hummel provided three huge ones when he hit the go-ahead trifecta with a minute left to propel Purdue to their fifth-straight win. Meanwhile, the Badgers continued their free fall through the standings, suffering their fifth consecutive loss. It was also their third loss this season at the friendly confines of the Kohl Center after posting an impressive 113-7 home record during Coach Bo Ryan’s first eight years in Madison.

Mississippi Rebels 85, #24 Kentucky Wildcats 80 – It was a rough welcome to the Top 25 for Kentucky, who lost their first game since cracking the poll on Monday. David Huertas dropped 21 for the Rebs — nineteen of them in the second half — to earn their first victory in ten tries against the Wildcats. The loss was the first conference blemish for Kentucky, who still holds the half-game lead over Tennessee, a team they soundly beat on the road earlier this month.

Big 12 Games

Colorado Buffaloes 55, Iowa State Cyclones 49 – Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffaloes shook the monkey off their back last night, winning their first conference game and climbing into a four-way tie for most futile team in the Big 12. Despite allowing Iowa State a robust 48% success rate from the field, Colorado was able to claim the home victory by sinking seven more free throws than their opponents. Craig Brackins once again led the way for the ‘Clones, dropping in 24 points in the losing effort. The performance marked the seventh time in his last nine games that Brackins has cracked the 20-point plateau.

#2 Duke Blue Devils 73, NC State Wolfpack 56 – After twenty minutes, the second-ranked team in the nation trailed State by four, thanks to a paltry 29% shooting clip in the first half. But Coach K’s team shot a ridiculous 20-of-29 in the second half, while holding the visitors to just one field goal in the final eight minutes of play. Gerald Henderson led the way for the Dukies, posting 21 with seven rebounds.

#24 Illinois Fighting Illini 67, Ohio State Buckeyes 49 – Bruce Weber’s defense continued its stifling play, forcing the Buckeyes into 20 turnovers on the night, a season high for the visiting club. Dominique Keller provided a spark off the bench for Illinois, dropping in 12 points to go with his six boards in only twenty minutes of play. The win keeps the Illini tied for second in the Big 10, with a huge home game against Wisconsin looming on Saturday afternoon.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 63, Colorado Buffaloes 55 – With sharpshooting senior Alan Voskuil suffering from the flu and limited to only three points, Mike Singletary was asked to carry the load for Tech on Tuesday night. The big man bruised his way to 20 points and nine rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, propelling the Red Raiders to their first conference victory of the season.

It’s not exactly a night that will keep you glued to the couch, which might seem obvious when Ohio State and Illinois play in the headliner…

Top 25 Action

Ohio State (13-3 overall, 3-2 Big 10) at #25 Illinois (15-3, 3-2) | 7 PM ET, ESPN
Bruce Weber and the Illini have bounced back from an awful 2007-08 season much faster than anyone might have expected, but a tough stretch to open conference play has left them in the middle of the standings. Ohio State finds itself in the middle of that same pack, but enters tonight’s game in Champaign as winners of five straight against Illinois. The Buckeyes will have their work cut out for them, however, as they are ranked 250th in the country in offensive rebounding and are facing the nation’s 10th-ranked defense.

North Carolina State (10-5 overall, 1-2 ACC) at #2 Duke (16-1, 3-0) | 8 ET, ESPN Full Court
Duke has been playing absolutely lights out as of late, most recently shutting down Georgetown on Saturday afternoon at Cameron Indoor. They are sporting an NCAA-best +0.345 efficiency differential, just ahead of their Tobacco Road rival, North Carolina. In simpler terms, the Blue Devils outscore their opponents by 0.345 points per possession, which means that even if the Wolfpack can slow things down to their tempo, they will only lose by……approximately 22 points. Uh oh.

Big 12 Games

Colorado (8-8 overall, 0-2 Big 12) at Texas Tech (10-7, 0-2) | 8 PM ET, ESPN Full Court
It’s a game matching two teams that have the potential to be the absolute worst squads in the Big 12! If that doesn’t scream “must watch,” I’m not sure what else does. Perhaps a marathon of the Ryan Seacrest-produced reality show, Momma’s Boys?

Around the country

Tennessee (11-5 overall, 2-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (12-5, 1-2) | 9 PM ET, ESPN
Last year, these two teams put on one of the most exciting games of the season, as the Commodores eked out a three-point win over their cross-state rivals, who had just reached No. 1 for the first time in school history. This year, there’s not nearly as much on the line, but excitement is still on tap. Just ask stat guru Ken Pomeroy, who hopes his new FanMatch feature can pinpoint the most intriguing match-ups of the night. And according to Mr. Pomeroy’s brand-spanking-new ranking system, this particular Battle of Tennessee has a 71.7% chance of kicking major ass. Guaranteed.

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.