For the second consecutive Saturday, the Texas Longhorns walked quietly to the locker room as students rushed the court behind them. This afternoon, the overjoyed co-eds were clad in gold and black, as Colorado notched their third victory over a Top 25 opponent by shocking Texas, 91-89.

On its own merits, a Colorado win at home wouldn’t be that shocking this season, even against a vaunted opponent. It was the way in which the Buffaloes won this afternoon, though, that has the college basketball world buzzing. Alec Burks and Levi Knutson combined for 54 points — 37 of them in the second half — to erase a 22-point Texas lead en route to the win.

The win puts Colorado in good position to close the regular season on a high note, and gives the Buffs another quality win to add to the ever-important résumé. With a road game against Iowa State and a home date with Nebraska left on the docket, there’s no reason that Colorado shouldn’t finish the season with 20 wins and a 9-7 mark in the Big 12.

Throw in a pair of victories over Kansas State and wins against Texas and Missouri, and suddenly the Buffaloes look like they could make the Big Dance despite a completely empty non-con profile.

For Texas, the post-season picture lost some of its shine with today’s loss. The Longhorns are now in a first-place tie with Kansas in the Big 12, although they do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed if the two teams remain tied at the end of the season. To win the title outright, Texas must now knock off both Kansas State and Baylor, plus get help from Texas A&M or Missouri in their games against KU.

At the national level, the loss also could alter the team’s route through the NCAAs. While the loss to Nebraska already put a dent in Texas’ hopes for a No. 1 seed in the tournament, this loss will likely guarantee that the Longhorns will be slotted no higher than a 2-seed. Things could certainly change between now and Selection Sunday, but unless the Longhorns knock off Kansas a second time in the conference tournament, the 1-seed seems out of the question.

That also means that instead of a short trip to San Antonio for possible second weekend action in the NCAA tournament, the Horns could end up in Anaheim, New Orleans, or Newark. There’s certainly the chance that the Longhorns could still be put in the closest region as a 2-seed, which happened for Texas in 2008 when they were slotted in the Houston regional. Of course, it’s all speculation at this point, but had Texas not dropped these two games, there would be nothing to speculate about.

What looked good

In the early going, Texas did a fantastic job working the ball inside against a smaller Colorado team and taking advantage of open threes when the Buffaloes collapsed inside. Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph combined for seven of Texas’ first 11 points, while Gary Johnson scored at will inside and finished the game with 17 points.

After being tied at 11 coming out of the under-16 media timeout, J’Covan Brown fueled a 14-0 run for Texas with hot shooting from behind the arc. He looked unstoppable early, combining his great shooting with excellent court vision. Brown kept the offense churning early, consistently finding his teammates for good looks inside, and he finished the game with five assists. Unfortunately, things went downhill late in the first half.

What needed work

The first inklings of trouble cropped up late in the first, as Colorado chipped away at a 22-point Texas lead just before the half. The Buffs broke out a zone, and the Longhorns seemed completely confounded by the simple 2-3, despite the fact that they had decimated Baylor’s zone just a few weeks prior.

On one particular possession late in the first half, Gary Johnson received an entry pass at the free-throw line, the softest part of a zone defense. Instead of making a quick read and kicking to an open teammate as the defense trapped down on him, he made repeated pass fakes as Buffaloes swarmed around him, and he ultimately had to kick it back out to a guard at the top of the key.

The offensive troubles continued into the second half, as the same Longhorn team that put up 48 points in the first 20 minutes could manage just 14 points in the first 11:15 of the second half. Colorado shut down driving lanes, and Texas could do nothing more than back the ball out and settle for jump shots. When the team made it to the line, they simply couldn’t convert. The Longhorns finished just 20-of-38 at the line.

Meanwhile, the Texas defense was having a meltdown of epic proportions. Burks and Knutson went off on their 37-point outburst in the second half, with the Longhorns seemingly unable to stop anything. Burks needed just inches to get off — and drill — shots in front of Texas defenders, but the Longhorns constantly left Knutson wide open as they scrambled to stop ball penetration. Knutson entered the game as the Big 12′s best three-point shooter with a success rate of 47%, and he made 3-of-5 in a 2:50 span that put Colorado up for good.

Even down the stretch, Texas failed to put the clamp down on defense. With the game still in doubt, the Longhorns managed to come up with a few key stops, only to then give up weak offensive rebounds and easy tip-ins., Sometimes, the Horns simply turned the ball right back over with sloppy play.

On one particularly crushing possession, Texas played 34 seconds of excellent defense, only to have Jordan Hamilton step out of bounds trying to catch the airballed shot. With one second left on the shot clock, Knutson missed a three off the inbounds, but Colorado grabbed the miss and ended the possession with a three by Burks.

As the second half wound down, it seemed that there was no stopping Colorado. Not only were they scoring at will while Texas couldn’t buy a bucket, but the ball was bouncing their way. Still, Texas somehow put on another furious late rally, as they did in Nebraska a week prior. Once again, the Longhorns fell short, and the questionable shot selection certainly didn’t help matters.

After Colorado’s Cory Higgins stepped out of bounds with the Buffaloes up four and just 29 seconds left on the clock, Hamilton launched a line drive from 25-feet that clanked off the iron and essentially sealed the game. Earlier, Brown had wasted a Colorado turnover on an over-and-back call by jacking up a contested shot off a curl just seconds into the possession.

While the Longhorn shooters have often showed poise in tough road environments, the latest trend is for them to try to silence the crowd with ill-advised looks. In the team’s back-to-back road losses, Hamilton was a combined 10-of-40 from the field, including an 8-of-24 mark from behind the arc. If the sophomore star is going to lead Texas through adversity, he needs to create open looks, not just rifle it up from behind the arc.

Before fans jump off of the bandwagon, though, they should take a brief glance at the history book. The last Longhorn team to lose in Boulder was the 2003 squad, one that also lost in their Big 12 tournament opener against Texas Tech. That Texas team bounced back quickly and made it all the way to the Final Four. If this year’s Longhorn team can simply re-discover their killer instinct, the future can still be promising.

Next up: vs. Kansas State (20-9 overall, 8-6 Big 12); 8 P.M. CT, Monday

After 28 games, it’s safe to say that this year’s edition of the Texas Longhorns has vastly outperformed expectations. Coming off of a season in which the Longhorns sprinted out to a 17-0 start, only to lose seven of their next ten and get bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament, the burnt orange faithful had understandably tempered hopes for 2010-11.

But now, with the Longhorns posting a stellar 24-4 mark and sitting at 12-1 in the Big 12, there are much bigger goals in play. Texas is still solidly in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, with the possibility of playing close to home in the San Antonio regional. Texas can also win their first Big 12 title since 2008, and the team still has a chance to win the conference title outright. No school besides Kansas has claimed an outright Big 12 championship since 2004, when Oklahoma State won the league en route to a Final Four berth.

Unfortunately, the final three games for the Longhorns could provide multiple stumbling blocks on the way to those goals. Texas finishes the schedule by hosting Kansas State and traveling to Waco to face Baylor, but first must try to pull off the road victory this afternoon in Colorado. The Buffaloes have also been a team that has exceeded expectations this season, finding themselves in a three-way tie for sixth coming into this game.

First-year coach Tad Boyle has immediately built buzz around the program. While the Coors Event Center has often felt like a library in past seasons, this year it has been packed even against opponents not named Kansas. The atmosphere should be electric this afternoon, as Colorado looks for another marquee win to get them off the bubble and into the NCAA tournament.

By the numbers

Colorado has a highly efficient offense, but the numbers fail to tell the entire story. The Buffaloes have an adjusted offensive mark of 1.132 points per possession, but also played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the entire country. In conference play, Colorado’s offense has managed just 1.042 points each time down the court, still good for fifth in the league.

With excellent guards in the backcourt, the Buffaloes are able to push the pace at will. While their average tempo is right in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, Colorado is always a threat to score quickly in transition. Not only do they have three good ball-handling guards, but they can also let 6’7″ senior Marcus Relphorde bring the ball up the floor. That offensive flexibility makes it very easy for the Buffs to score on the break.

Defensively, Colorado does a great job switching on screens. With so many of their players ranging from 6’4″ to 6’7″, it’s rare that the automatic switching will lead to a defensive mismatch. Coach Boyle also loves to mix up his looks during a game, tossing out different zones in addition to the standard man-to-man. Statistically speaking, the Colorado defense is sound, but average. They have allowed just 0.995 points per possession on the year, but are giving up 1.062 points per trip against the tougher Big 12 competition.

One other statistic worth noting is the ability for the Colorado guards to get to the line. Alec Burks and Cory Higgins combine to average more than 12.4 free throws per game, with Burks posting a free-throw rate of nearly 53%. For a backcourt player, an FTR that high is exceptional.

Burks and Higgins also know how to make it count once they get to the line, as they make 86.8% of their free throws. As a team, Colorado is knocking down 79.1% of their attempts at the line, the third-best mark in Division I basketball.

Meet the Buffaloes

Colorado is led by a skilled pair in the backcourt, with sophomore Alec Burks chipping in more than 19 points per game, good enough for third in the Big 12. At 6’6″, he’s a terrible mismatch for most opposing guards, and is incredibly quick off the dribble. While the Longhorn defense has done a solid job shutting down slashing guards so far this season, they are going to have their hands full with Burks this afternoon.

Joining Burks in the backcourt is senior Cory Higgins, son of former NBA star Rod Higgins. He’s providing 16 points per game so far this season for the Buffaloes, but also makes a huge contribution with his quick hands on defense. Over the last two years, Higgins has rounded out his game by improving his three-point shot, and he’s made 36% of those attempts so far this year.

While Burks and Higgins have been a nearly unstoppable tandem this season, the one knock on both of their games is an unfortunate predilection for picking up offensive fouls. Look for the Longhorn defense to draw a foul or two on the Colorado guards simply by holding their ground against an over-eager Burks or Higgins.

Running the point is Australian product Nate Tomlinson, who is only playing about 20 minutes per game despite starting 22 times. He is simply a facilitator for the offense, and his prescient court vision sets up the Colorado shooters time and again. Tomlinson is logging an assist on more than 18% of the CU buckets when he’s on the court, a number that would likely be even higher if Burks and Higgins weren’t able to create so often on their own.

Senior Marcus Relphorde is a 6’7″ swingman for Coach Boyle and the Buffaloes, and he has exceptional handles that allow him to easily attack from the wings and corners. He is one of only two players to start every game for Colorado this season, and he’s contributing 11.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

Although Relphorde has added a three-point shot to his arsenal, he has limited the attempts this season after firing them up indiscriminately last year. Relphorde has only taken 68 attempts behind the arc this season, but has one of the team’s best accuracy marks at 38.2%.

The other Buffalo to start every game is junior big man Austin Dufault. Colorado loves to space the floor and create space for drivers and cutters, so unfortunately Dufault’s rebounding numbers are fairly pedestrian for a 6’9″ guy. He’s averaging only 4.4 boards per game to go with his 7.6 points, and he’s struggled somewhat with his typically-sound midrange jumper this season.

Although Dufault has been struggling, the arrival of freshman Andre Roberson has helped to shore things up in the Colorado frontcourt. Out of San Antonio, Roberson is a tenacious rebounder and shot blocker, and actually leads the team in both categories despite being the sixth man. In just 21 minutes per game, the 6’7″ freshman has 7.3 boards per game and 27 blocks. While Roberson is already making an impact this season, he’s destined to become a household name with Pac 10 fans next year.

Off the bench, Coach Boyle gives a lot of minutes to sharpshooter Levi Knutson. Despite starting only five games this year, Knutson is averaging more than 26 minutes and has ignited many a Colorado run with his hot hand behind the arc. In a road win over Kansas State, Knutson was 6-for-8 from behind the arc, and he knocked down five triples just a week later at Nebraska. On the season, he’s made 47% of his threes, tops in the Big 12 by a wide margin.

Also coming off the bench for Colorado is redshirt freshman Shannon Sharpe. After surgery cost him the 2009-10 season, Sharpe is playing about 15 minutes per game in the backcourt. A short, strong guard, Sharpe could be described as a sleeker Lance Jeter or Byron Eaton.

Sharpe is athletic and can attack off the dribble, but has yet to show a consistent enough jump shot to cause defenses to play tightly on him. If he could start knocking down the J, he would be able to take advantage of the tighter defense and then showcase that strength in finishing at the rim.

Keys to the game

For the Longhorns, the biggest thing in this afternoon’s game is winning the rebounding battle. When Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 start in conference play, they did so on the strength of outrebounding their opponents. Even in a road game against a bigger, more physical Kansas State team, the Buffs won the battle on the glass, and ultimately escaped with the win.

Texas is also bigger and more physical than Colorado, but the Horns have had inexplicable stretches of weak play on the glass. If they allow the Buffaloes to overcome their natural disadvantage, it will only serve to bolster Colorado’s upset chances this afternoon.

The Longhorns must also play sound team defense. Colorado knows how to spread out the floor and then force defenses to react by driving the lane. The Buffaloes move the ball very quickly and have a handful of shooters that can knock it down from outside. Texas will likely have to rotate and provide a lot of help defense this afternoon, so the Horns must communicate well on defense to avoid lapses that lead to easy buckets.

Finally, we’ll be looking for Texas to beat Colorado inside. The Buffaloes have a short bench and a definite lack of depth in the frontcourt. With the Longhorns already enjoying a size advantage inside, attacking the paint and drawing fouls on the Colorado bigs will only make things easier for Texas later in the game. Roberson has fouled out four times this season, while Dufault has done the same on two occasions. Although Tristan Thompson will struggle knocking down his free throws when he’s fouled inside, the trade-off of forcing Colorado to an even smaller lineup should pay off.

The Longhorns march into Big 12 play this afternoon with a perfect 14-0 mark, tied for the school’s best start in the modern era. Texas opened the season with 20 wins in 1932 and with a school-record 23 wins in 1923. While a chance to match those rarefied numbers is still weeks away and would require some tough road wins, the Longhorns do have a shot to storm into conference play with an opening slate that includes Colorado, Iowa State, and Texas A&M.

This afternoon’s opener comes against the Buffaloes, who were picked by most outlets to finish dead last in the conference. Don’t be surprised, however, if Jeff Bzdelik‘s team manages to climb out of the league cellar this year. Last season, the Buffs put scares into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, despite having a very young team. They have added a solid five-man recruiting class to the mix, and finally have the offensive potency to move past the slow, grind-it-out style of basketball that Bzdelik had to implement in past seasons just to keep his team in the games.

Historical numbers are certainly not on Colorado’s side this afternoon. The Buffaloes have lost 26-straight road games in conference play, dating all the way back to January of 2006. Colorado has also lost twelve straight conference openers, while the Longhorns have won eleven consecutive home openers in conference play. If you put any stock into historical trends, things don’t look good for the visitors.

By the numbers

As we’ve mentioned already, the Buffaloes are no longer a slow-down team that hopes to win a game in the 50- or 60-point range. Their 69 possessions per game is soundly in the middle of the NCAA, although it is still a good deal slower than Texas’ 76-plus possessions per contest. While the Buffaloes may try to slow things down just a bit to mitigate the talent discrepancies in this game, this season they are certainly more capable of playing an up-tempo game with the Longhorns.

The thing that the Buffaloes do best is earn points at the line. They are one of the top 25 teams in the country at getting to the foul stripe, as their quick dribble drives and constant motion on offense often leads to opponents getting behind the play and hacking in desperation. Once Colorado gets to the line, they also make it worth their time. The Buffs are second in the nation with a 78.2% success rate at the stripe, and even led the country at one point earlier in the week.

Colorado is a smaller team that typically runs four guards and one undersized forward. Many of these “guards” actually play more of a swingman role for the team, but they are usually hanging around the perimeter unless they are driving to the basket. Even the Buffalo post player is often found near the three-point line, setting screens that open up driving lanes and get the team’s offense running. All of this adds up to absolutely awful offensive rebounding numbers. The Buffaloes grab barely more than a quarter of their misses, which is only 318th out of the 347 D-I schools.

The Buffaloes also make up for their size disadvantages by running a ton of different zone looks that confuse opponents and allow them to press the issue far from the basket. Unfortunately, when bigger teams manage to work it inside, the fouls pile up quickly for Colorado. The free-throw rate for the Buffaloes on defense is 309th in the nation, and the team’s platoon of big men has combined to foul out seven times this year.

Meet the Buffaloes

The biggest reason for the improvement in Colorado’s performance is the addition of five newcomers to the roster, although freshman Shannon Sharpe is medically redshirting this year after pre-season knee surgery. Coach Bzdelik addressed the team’s lack of height by adding 6’11″ Aussie freshman Shane Harris-Tunks. He still needs some seasoning, but already has a good skill set thanks to his time spent at the Australian Institute of Sport.

Junior-college transfer Marcus Relphorde adds a tenacious rebounder to the roster, along with a solid passer in the high post. He also brings three-point range, which is a key in Bzdelik’s offense. While Relphorde can knock down the long-range shots, he’s struggled a bit from behind the arc so far this year. He’s made just 32.5% of his attempts, but is capable of much more. He certainly knows that, as he keeps firing up the long bombs — so many, in fact, that he’s second on the team in attempts.

The jewel of the class, however, is freshman Alec Burks. In his senior season of high school, Burks was named Gatorade’s Player of the Year in the state of Missouri, and he’s quickly making an impact in the college ranks. At 6’6″, he actually leads the team in rebounds and is second in scoring with 16.3 points per game. He is quick off the dribble, which opens up his teammates for good looks when he penetrates. His long wingspan is also very valuable when Colorado throws out their 1-3-1 zone and traps opponents on the wings.

The star of team is still Cory Higgins, who can beat you any way you want it. He’s a solid shooter, hitting just a shade under 50% from the field, and worked hard on his outside shot in the offseason. That work has led to a 40% mark from behind the arc this season, up from 36% last year. He’s also nearly automatic when he gets to the line, where last season he had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive makes. This year, he’s knocked down 86% of his attempts from the line, and his quick attack on the dribble-drive means that defenders are often sending him there.

The other thing Higgins brings to the table is a set of really quick hands. He’s leading the team in steals, and was even near the top of the Big 12 ranks in that category last season. Texas has shown its moments of sloppiness and carelessness with the ball, so they will have to be careful when the junior guard is nearby on defense.

The Buffaloes score their points by driving and finding the open man, and often when the defenses collapse that means the open man is somewhere behind the arc. Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, but so far this season they have shown that they are content with stopping teams inside and daring opponents to beat them from outside. This could lead to a big day for Dwight Thorne II, who led the team in three-pointers last year and also was tops in accuracy from behind the arc. At the beginning of this season, he was the team’s starting point guard, but recently sophomore Nate Tomlinson has reclaimed those duties. As the sixth man, Thorne could be a key to this game with his long-range marksmanship.

The big man opening up Thorne on the perimeter is Austin Dufault, the lone forward in the starting lineup. Although he’s the team’s tallest starter at 6’9″, his biggest role in the offense is setting screens outside. Dufault was named Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota as a high school senior, and it’s his outside shot that sets him apart from other big men. That long-range threat is huge in the Colorado offense, as teams who choose to double the ballhandler after a screen will often pay when Dufault knocks down a triple. The big man is also second in rebounding on a team that will have issues with that this afternoon, so he’ll have to come up huge on the glass against the Texas frontcourt.

Sophomore point guard Tomlinson has made huge strides after a rookie year where he often struggled with the new offense he was asked to run. In addition to being a solid floor general, he’s also a solid shooter. Tomlinson takes less than five shots a game, though, so his scoring impact is usually negligible. If Texas leaves him open, you can probably bank on the Aussie sophomore tickling the twine.

Also coming off the bench for Coach Bzdelik are Keegan Hornbuckle and Casey Crawford. Hornbuckle is the fifth member of the recruiting class, and is a quality-shooting small forward. He has fairly limited minutes, though, so he will likely have a small impact on today’s game. Crawford is in his second year at CU after transferring from Wake Forest. He’s used mostly to spell Dufault, and is another big man who can knock down the three when he’s out there setting screens.

Keys to the game

The biggest advantage Texas has in this game — besides the talent differential — is a much bigger lineup. The Longhorns must dominate the rebounding battle, especially on the defensive end. Colorado is a very well-coached team that is loaded with good shooters, so limiting the Buffaloes to one-and-done possessions should squash any thoughts of an upset.

Beyond crashing the glass, the other main focus for Texas will be shutting down Higgins. In Boulder last February, the guard went off for 34 points as the Buffs pushed the Longhorns to overtime. This Texas team is much more sound on defense, but they had a lot of problems with another quick guard on Tuesday night, Arkansas’ Courtney Fortson. The Longhorns found themselves behind the play quite often, and their frustration fouls piled up. Texas will need to communicate on defense and help each other out if they hope to limit Higgins’ effectiveness.

While it’s been an issue all season long, Texas has certainly improved their free throw shooting in the last few games. As often as Colorado fouls opponents, though, tonight knocking down the freebies will be even more key than usual. The Buffaloes can level the talent disparity by making Texas earn their points, so we’ll likely see a ton of free throw attempts for the Horns this afternoon. Make them, and Texas should cruise to victory. Miss too many, and the final score will be a lot closer than it should be.

When Texas and Colorado played just three weeks ago in Boulder, Dexter Pittman was a non-factor. The big man played awful defense in the post, and as a result Coach Rick Barnes let him sit on the bench for most of the game. Pittman saw the floor for just 12 minutes in the Coors Event Center, and dropped in only four points.

Fast-forward to yesterday, and it’s a different story. Dex was absolutely unstoppable, and the Buffaloes looked completely lost when it came to defending the big man. Pittman threw down a multitude of rim-rocking dunks en route to a 26-point performance, and even added a pair of assists when Colorado tried to double down on him in the blocks.

Defensively, the Longhorns also made huge strides from their initial meeting with the Buffaloes, relying mostly on a zone look in this contest. Texas cut their fouls from 24 in the February 14th game to just 14 in yesterday’s win, which in turn resulted in 10 less free throw attempts for Colorado. It’s a good thing, too — the Buffs were nearly perfect from the line in this game, missing just one of their 19 attempts.

Without the bevy of free throw attempts to buoy his scoring, super soph Cory Higgins had only five points for Colorado after dropping 34 in the first game between these two teams. In the previous match-up, Higgins had nine from the charity stripe, while he only had four attempts from the line in this one.

The only troubling aspect for Texas in this one was the backcourt play. While they did a great job working the ball inside, where Texas enjoyed a 38-20 scoring advantage, the guards seemed just a bit… off. Dogus Balbay reverted to his early-season play at random points, playing a bit out of control and trying to force the issue. His bi-polar ballhandling only resulted in one turnover, but there were a handful of close calls. The most redemptive part of Balbay’s game was a pair of clutch defensive rebounds, something the Longhorns needed in their zone set.

In addition, Justin Mason and A.J. Abrams sometimes played a bit too actively on the defensive end, resulting in five fouls for the pair. But even in those instances where they overplayed passing lanes, the highly effective team defense of Texas was able to communicate, recover, and reset. Although it was just a game against the league’s worst team, it is a very reassuring sign to only have these minor things as issues we can nitpick.

On the injury front, Texas came out of this one in fairly good shape. Both Pittman and Gary Johnson had some ankle issues during the game, but both continued to play and were effective. Johnson’s injury was the most concerning, as he missed action in three straight games near the end of the year. But since the small forward was back on the court just minutes later, it seems that he will still be able to play a key role as the tournament continues.

The win advances the Longhorns to the quarterfinal round, where they will have a re-match with Kansas State. The Wildcats previously defeated Texas in an overtime contest at the Erwin Center on January 31st.

Texas opens the Big 12 tournament with one of those awful games that means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. A win over the league’s worst team, Colorado, does absolutely nothing for the Longhorns’ computer profile. In fact, playing against a team with such an awful record actually hurts the numbers that the NCAA Selection Committee is looking at as they fill out the bracket. In short, Texas has nothing to gain by beating the Buffaloes, but unfortunately has a lot to lose.

Stumbling against Colorado — something that Baylor did in last season’s tournament as the 5-seed — could easily cost the Longhorns a seed line or two when the NCAA brackets come out next Sunday. And for a team that has been vacillating between 7- and 8-seeds in most projections for the last four weeks, losing ground on the S-curve is a recipe for disaster. The Longhorns have to make a showing in this week’s tournament if they want to avoid a potential match-up with a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA’s second round. Unfortunately, that run will have to start with this damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t trap game.

If you missed the game preview from the first time these two teams met, you will want to check it out for a detailed look at the Colorado players, their style of basketball, and how they match up with the Longhorns. If you’ve already read over that fine piece of literature, carry on for a quick preview of today’s tilt…

The previous meeting

Although Texas needed overtime for an 85-76 win, the Longhorns actually played remarkably well for most of the game. A.J. Abrams dropped 29, while Damion James had a double-double with 21 points and 14 rebounds. Texas fans will remember that James missed two opportunities to win the game at the free throw line in regulation, but his performance in overtime is what sealed the deal.

It wasn’t just the two stars who were clicking, as the Longhorns shot over 57% from the field and were seemingly unstoppable. Where they tripped up was in allowing the much shorter and guard-oriented Colorado team to grab just two rebounds less than the Longhorns. As we mentioned in the game preview of the first match-up, the lineup and style of play that Colorado coach Jeff Bzdelik employs means that Texas should be absolutely dominating the glass when these two teams meet.

Texas was also completely unable to shut down super soph Cory Higgins, who went off for 34 points, nine of which came at the line. Higgins shot 55% from the field, including a 3-of-5 afternoon from long range. Jermyl Jackson-Wilson doubled his season average with 10 against the Longhorns, while grabbing three key offensive rebounds in the game.

Since then…

When these teams first met on Valentine’s Day, the Buffaloes were fresh off a string of games where they had been putting scares into the top teams of the Big 12 Conference. Since then, Colorado has lost its remaining six games, but continued to play tough basketball that kept them in the contests until late.

Although the Buffaloes suffered a 21-point blowout loss at home against Oklahoma State followed by an 18-point embarrassment versus Baylor in Waco, they hung tough against quality teams from the top half of the conference in the other four losses. While none of those games were as impressive as the mid-season games that Colorado played on the road against Oklahoma and Kansas, their performance shows that these young Buffaloes are not yet throwing in the towel.

Higgins is one player in particular who is still giving 110% every night. In the last three games of the season, he averaged 23 points per contest on 49% shooting and swiped five steals. Unfortunately for the Buffs, Higgins still struggled with hanging on to the basketball. The Wildcats forced him to cough it up six times in the season finale on Saturday, giving him a final line on the year that includes a troubling 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Keys to the game

Dominate the rebounding battle – As it was in our first game preview for Colorado, the No. 1 key for this game is rebounding. Texas is much bigger than Colorado, and the Buffs’ affinity for a four-guard look with a post that sets high screens means that there is no excuse for the poor job the Longhorns did on the glass during the first match-up. Today Texas needs to keep Colorado off the boards — particularly Jackson-Wilson on the offensive end — and convert those solid defensive stands into one-and-done possessions.

Turn Higgins into a mere mortal – There is no doubt that this sophomore sensation is a great player, and next season could even lead Colorado out of the bottom rungs of the league standings. But if you take away even half of his 34-point performance from the February 14th game, Texas wins that one in a cakewalk. The Longhorns can’t sell out to guard Higgins, but he is by far their biggest offensive threat, and he warrants added defensive attention today. Texas needs to communicate on defense so they don’t lose the little guard as they fight through the infinite number of screens that Colorado is going to throw out there.

Play injury-free – Rather than a key to winning this game, we’re going with the big picture for No. 3 in our rundown. As we mentioned in the lead, Texas is in a no-win situation with this game. Losing it will cost them a few seed lines, but losing any of their key players in a win is no better. While you can’t really plan for a game with no tweaked ankles or knees, let’s all pull for the Longhorns to come out healthy on the other side of this one.

Now that LRT is in its third year of existence, it’s a known fact that there will be a rough stretch of traveling hidden somewhere in each season’s schedule. The first year, it was an eight day span that included trips to Stillwater, Philadelphia, and Lincoln. Last year, it was two lengthy trips via car to Norman and Iowa State just days apart.

This season, that time is right now. Fresh off the heels of a there-and-back shot to Lincoln, this weekend has given us the pleasure of a Saturday contest in Boulder followed by a tilt in College Station just two days later. It’s sometimes tough to look forward to a game when you’ve just spent nearly as many hours in a car (33) as you did in the mountain town you visited (39). It’s often even tougher to look forward to that following game on just over an hour of sleep, especially when you consider the recent losing streak Texas has enjoyed on its road trips to College Station (4). We’re certainly not complaining, but when your brain is running on sleep debt, these are the kinds of numbers that run through your head.

For now, it’s off to work where we’ll pound the energy drinks and look forward to the possibility of exorcising the Reed Arena demons that have haunted Texas. We’ll be back this afternoon with a brief refresher on the Aggies, but in the meantime you can revisit the game preview from the first match-up in Austin.

It seemed like a familiar script for Longhorn fans. Build a big lead, let a team storm back into it, and then blow the game by a slim margin. So when a nine point Texas lead had evaporated in only three minutes, it seemed like the inevitable ending was just moments away.

But Damion James was fouled with only 1.6 seconds left on the clock and the score knotted at 72. Finally, it was a chance to re-write the script. He headed to the line, facing directly into the black and gold student section, where the Buffalo fans leaned down and pounded on their seatbacks. He needed to make just one to seal the win. This was it. Texas could put the demons to rest.

Until both free throws clanged off the iron.

With the weight of those misses on his shoulder, James played like a man possessed in the ensuing five-minute overtime. He ripped down six of his 14 rebounds in the extra session and added six of his 21 points as Texas pulled away. Ironically, two of those points came at the line, with the lead safely in hand.

The problem is that most Texas fans won’t remember that. They will only remember the pair of awful metallic thuds as James missed his chance to be the hero.

Fans also won’t remember the fact that the Longhorn offense played exceptionally well for the second straight game, shooting a season-high 57.4% from the field. The previous high had come just four days prior, when Texas blazed past Oklahoma State with a 52.2% clip. As a result of the hot shooting, Texas’ efficiency numbers were also sky high once again. The Longhorns posted a 124.5 offensive efficiency rating, their third-highest performance of the season.

The one constant in both of those games? Significant minutes for point guard Dogus Balbay. The Turkish sophomore played 37 of the 45 minutes against Colorado after seeing the floor for 33 against Oklahoma State. Prior to those two games, Balbay was averaging just 15.6 minutes per contest.

His presence on the court makes the offense flow, which was painfully obvious when he was taken out with roughly ten minutes left in the first half. In the two minutes he sat on the bench, Texas seemed content to pass the ball around the arc, yet still turned it over twice. With the ball in his hands, the Longhorns throw away far fewer possessions, as he’s posted a ridiculous 7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in these last two games.

Balbay’s presence also opens things up for sharpshooter A.J. Abrams. The senior guard had 29 points, and scored 20 against Oklahoma State. In the previous five games, he was averaging 15 points per contest. While the scoring boost is a nice result, the real reason that Balbay’s emergence is a massive development is the fact that it keeps A.J. from forcing bad shots. In these last two games, Abrams scored his 49 points on 61% shooting, including 56% behind the arc. In the previous four, he shot 38% from the field. Simply put, Balbay makes Abrams better.

Three-point defense was not a huge issue throughout the game, but once again it reared its head at the worst possible time. Colorado shot just 5-of-14 from long range, but hit two out of three attempts in the second half as they clawed into at a ten-point Texas advantage. The Longhorns have an awful tendency to let teams eat away at huge deficits by making hay from behind the arc. Against a team with more long-range consistency than the Buffaloes, that will be deadly.

Texas also struggled on the glass, which is quite embarrassing when you look at the height disparity between the two teams. The Buffs play with four guards for most of the game, none of which are taller than 6’6″. Add in the fact that Colorado’s leading rebounder was their 6’5″ off guard, and it’s a definite cause for concern. The worst offender for Texas was Gary Johnson, who laid a big fat goose egg on the stat sheet despite being the team’s second-best man on the glass. The Longhorns are going to face much stronger rebounders in Oklahoma and Kansas, so a performance like this will absolutely scuttle any chances of upsetting those teams.

Obviously, the collapse down the stretch is also a huge reason for concern. After all, it seems like it’s only about the 874th time that Texas has done it this year. But Longhorn fans can take some solace in the fact that, for once, this team did make the necessary plays to pull out the victory.

The Longhorns travel to Boulder, Colorado today in a game that, at first blush, looks like an easy win on paper. And for a Texas team that is trying to get back on the right track after a brutal stretch where they lost three games by a combined total of eleven points, it couldn’t come at a better time. But this Colorado squad is playing much better basketball than their record would indicate, and the mile-plus elevation of Boulder has often made the Coors Events Center a dangerous gym for visiting conference opponents.

The Buffaloes have only one win in the Big 12, a home victory over Iowa State. And although those same Cyclones absolutely decimated Colorado in Ames on Wednesday night by a 70-42 count, Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffs have been putting a scare into the league’s top teams. Colorado played both Kansas State and Nebraska to narrow two-point losses and fell five points short against both Kansas in Lawrence and Oklahoma in Norman.

As if the recent play by Colorado wasn’t reason enough to harbor some doubts about today’s game, the Coors Events Center has given Texas fits in the past. The Final Four team suffered a loss here in 2003, getting absolutely shot out of the building by a red-hot Colorado team, 93-80. Two years later, the Buffs repeated the accomplishment with an 88-79 win on its home floor. Even the convincing 102-78 win by Kevin Durant and the Longhorns in 2007 was an absolute battle for the first 24 minutes or so. While the preview below will likely lead you to believe that Texas should cruise back home with a victory, things likely won’t be easy.

By the numbers

There is nothing remarkable about the Colorado offense or defense, as their efficiency numbers in both categories rank almost exactly in the middle of the NCAA pack. What is troublesome for Coach Bzdelik, though, is the fact that their margin is actually a -0.2, meaning that they give up 0.2 points per possession more than they score. He counters that problem with a Princeton offense that burns clock, so the Buffs typically only see 63 possessions per game, cutting down on the opportunities for their opponents to exploit that statistic.

Colorado struggles to rebound, particularly on the offensive side of things. They grab only 21.4% of their opportunities on the offensive glass, which puts is 342nd in the country for that metric. Three hundred and forty-second. Out of 344 teams. Quality. This inability to rebound is mostly a result of the four-out, one-in look that Colorado runs, along with the fact that their only post player is often setting screens up high and is nowhere near the basket when shots are released. Texas is already a solid rebounding team, but if they can limit Colorado to one-and-done possessions today, a win should come easily.

Another number that jumps out of Ken Pomeroy’s statistical overload is the fact that Colorado tends to win only when it keeps its opponents off the free throw line. Their season average for free throw rate is just in the middle of the pack for the NCAA, but in their losses it nearly doubles. Texas should attack the Colorado zone and draw fouls rather than simply settling for mid-range or three-point jumpers.

Meet the Buffs

Colorado runs only seven or eight deep on any given night, and has had the same starting five for nearly the entire season. Bzdelik’s team is very young after losing Richard Roby, Marcus Hall, and Marcus King-Stockton to graduation, and he is hoping that giving the core group of players a huge chunk of minutes will pay dividends in future seasons.

Australian freshman Nate Tomlinson is slotted at the point, and he’s doing a commendable job running the Princeton offense with no experience. Early in the season, you could see him struggling with the new system, as he actually had more turnovers than assists. But as the season has marched on into conference play, his confidence is up and he’s making less unforced errors. Texas must keep an eye on him today, as Tomlinson is deadly from behind the arc. His 43% success rate from three-point range leads the team, and is going to be needed for Colorado to hang around in today’s contest.

The leading scorer for Colorado is sophomore guard Cory Higgins, son of former NBA player Rod Higgins. He’s one of the best free throw shooters in the country at 86%, and had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive made free throws earlier this season. Higgins can attack the basket with ease, so it’s important for Texas to turn away his drives before he draws the fouls inside and converts the nearly-automatic points at the charity stripe. In addition, Higgins is at the top of the conference in steals, so a turnover-prone Longhorn team will have to take care of the ball when he’s nearby.

The other Buffalo who is a surefire offensive threat is Dwight Thorne II, a cousin of former A&M standout Acie Law. (As an aside, when you consider that Law is actually Acie Law IV, it makes you wonder why that family can’t come up with any new names.) Thorne is another long-range gunner, having hit on 42% of his three-point tries this year. Colorado’s offense keys on backdoor cuts and open three-point looks, so Dwight is going to be needed if the Buffaloes hope for an upset today.

Freshman Austin Dufault is the lone big man in Bzdelik’s version of the Princeton offense, and he seems to be making a good adjustment to the new system. He was Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota last season, and it is easy to see why. Not only can Dufault score inside and clean up the glass when he is actually in position, but he also showcases a nice jumper out to seventeen feet or so. While he’s not going to be an impact player in the league anytime soon, Dufault seems like a four-year guy who is going to be an absolute headache for opponents in his last season or two.

Jermyl Jackson-Wilson is a bull of a player despite checking in at just 6’6″. He fights hard for those offensive rebounds that seem to elude the Buffs, and prefers to muscle his way in for closer looks. With only five points and four rebounds a game, he’s not a huge contributer on the stat sheet, but his energy and hustle seem to make the difference on a few key plays in each contest.

Bzdelik really only utilizes three players off the bench, although he occasionally looks deeper down the pine when things are going horribly wrong. Levi Knutson is a reserve guard who is really struggling this season, hitting only 15% of his three point attempts after being the team’s marksman last year. Big man Casey Crawford will be called upon to spell Dufault on occasion, but he is also a quality long-range shooter. Trey Eckloff is something of a project, as he was just 17 when he hit the CU campus and has had difficulty adjusting to the college game. At 6’9″, his inside presence will be needed in the future, but for now he is relegated to the bench.

Keys to the game

Kill them on the glass – When there are often four Colorado players on the court that are 6’6″ or less, and the lone big man is often at the top of the key setting screens, the rebounds should come quite easily for Texas. The Longhorns shouldn’t have to especially try to control the rebounding battle, but should dominate on the glass and limit the number of looks for the Buffaloes. In addition, Texas should hopefully see a spike in the number of second-chance points they earn this afternoon.

Limit the threes – Colorado is going to get quite a few easy layups as a result of their Princeton offense, and there is likely little that Texas can do to stop it. But the Buffaloes are not going to beat the Longhorns by piling up a ton of layups. The thing that could keep them in this game is hot outside shooting from Thorne and Tomlinson, so Texas must ensure that those two guards do not get any easy looks from behind the arc.

Use Balbay to dissect the D – Things seemed to open up with the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup on Tuesday night against Oklahoma State. Connor Atchley enjoyed more open looks and took advantage of them, A.J. Abrams was freed up to the tune of 20 points, and the Longhorns enjoyed a salty assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1. The Buffaloes love to throw a ton of different defensive looks at their opponents, so Texas will need Balbay to probe the different zones and find the open lanes and open men. If he’s not the one handling the ball, Colorado could enjoy a fair share of Longhorn turnovers.

Top 25 Action

#11 Texas Longhorns 78, Baylor Bears 72 – The Longhorns escaped Waco with their 23rd consecutive win over Baylor, leaning on a nineteen point night from sharpshooter A.J. Abrams. The senior guard was hot early, but went through long stretches of absolute silence, including a nine-minute scoreless bout to open the second half. Damion James logged another double-double in the winning effort, posting a line of fourteen and twelve. Full post-game thoughts and numbers will be headed your way this afternoon.

#16 Purdue Boilermakers 64, Wisconsin Badgers 63 – He only had eight total points on the night, but Robbie Hummel provided three huge ones when he hit the go-ahead trifecta with a minute left to propel Purdue to their fifth-straight win. Meanwhile, the Badgers continued their free fall through the standings, suffering their fifth consecutive loss. It was also their third loss this season at the friendly confines of the Kohl Center after posting an impressive 113-7 home record during Coach Bo Ryan’s first eight years in Madison.

Mississippi Rebels 85, #24 Kentucky Wildcats 80 – It was a rough welcome to the Top 25 for Kentucky, who lost their first game since cracking the poll on Monday. David Huertas dropped 21 for the Rebs — nineteen of them in the second half — to earn their first victory in ten tries against the Wildcats. The loss was the first conference blemish for Kentucky, who still holds the half-game lead over Tennessee, a team they soundly beat on the road earlier this month.

Big 12 Games

Colorado Buffaloes 55, Iowa State Cyclones 49 – Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffaloes shook the monkey off their back last night, winning their first conference game and climbing into a four-way tie for most futile team in the Big 12. Despite allowing Iowa State a robust 48% success rate from the field, Colorado was able to claim the home victory by sinking seven more free throws than their opponents. Craig Brackins once again led the way for the ‘Clones, dropping in 24 points in the losing effort. The performance marked the seventh time in his last nine games that Brackins has cracked the 20-point plateau.

#2 Duke Blue Devils 73, NC State Wolfpack 56 – After twenty minutes, the second-ranked team in the nation trailed State by four, thanks to a paltry 29% shooting clip in the first half. But Coach K’s team shot a ridiculous 20-of-29 in the second half, while holding the visitors to just one field goal in the final eight minutes of play. Gerald Henderson led the way for the Dukies, posting 21 with seven rebounds.

#24 Illinois Fighting Illini 67, Ohio State Buckeyes 49 – Bruce Weber’s defense continued its stifling play, forcing the Buckeyes into 20 turnovers on the night, a season high for the visiting club. Dominique Keller provided a spark off the bench for Illinois, dropping in 12 points to go with his six boards in only twenty minutes of play. The win keeps the Illini tied for second in the Big 10, with a huge home game against Wisconsin looming on Saturday afternoon.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 63, Colorado Buffaloes 55 – With sharpshooting senior Alan Voskuil suffering from the flu and limited to only three points, Mike Singletary was asked to carry the load for Tech on Tuesday night. The big man bruised his way to 20 points and nine rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, propelling the Red Raiders to their first conference victory of the season.