It’s been a tragic fall for the Texas Longhorns this year. From the school’s first No. 1 ranking back in January, to its nearly-unprecedented slide out of the Top 25, the journey to the bottom has been long and arduous. Texas lost nine of its last sixteen games this season, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baylor Bears, a team the Horns had beaten 24 consecutive times prior to March of 2009.

But all of that means nothing in the grand scheme of things. That’s because the champion of NCAA men’s basketball is crowned at the end of a tournament. A tournament that levels the playing field and makes the last three weekends of the year the most important of the entire season. From 16-seed Vermont to overall No. 1 seed Kansas, every team has championship dreams. All it takes is six straight wins.

While the chances are slim for the Longhorns to put together a run like that, there’s certainly no denying that this team has the talent to at least be in the conversation. So, for the most optimistic members of the burnt-orange faithful, this could be seen as the first step in a larger journey. It’s win-and-advance, time, my friends. And so, with that in mind, our keys to earning that win……and advancing.

1) Maintain composure – The Longhorns are facing a Wake Forest team that has an excellent defense, particularly on the interior. Big man Chas McFarland and sophomore center Tony Woods are well-disciplined post defenders who play tall without leaving their feet. The Longhorns will have a hard time scoring inside, especially if they are relying on whistles to bail them out on poorly-chosen shots inside.

In the past, Texas has often become frustrated against good interior defenses and settled for a ton of outside shots, most of which were misses. The Longhorns must attack the inside with dribble penetration and good ball movement, and can not simply wait on the perimeter. If Justin Mason, J’Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton can force the Wake defense to react, and then actually make the extra pass, things should open up inside. Settle for outside shots, however, and the Longhorns will be playing right into the hands of the Deacs.

2) Pressure the ball – Senior guard Ishmael “Ish” Smith is not an exceptionally quick guard, but he’s a guy who confuses defenses with his hesitation dribble. His strength lies in pull-up jumpers and floaters, which is especially bizarre when you consider that he’s just a 50% free-throw shooter. Smith isn’t a big guy who finishes strong at the rim, so if he manages to force his way inside, Texas must make him earn the points. In addition, he loves to leave the ball just hanging in the air on his hesitation moves, so if the Longhorns defense has active hands, it could equal extra possessions and points.

That extra pressure shouldn’t be exclusively applied to Smith, however, as Wake Forest turns it over on more than 21% of their possessions. If the Longhorns can force Wake Forest into mistakes, it not only limits the Deac’s opportunities to score, but it ties in nicely with our first key of the game. The best way to score against a well-coached defense is to get it in the bucket before they even set up. If Texas can get down the court and score in transition before Wake sets up the half-court D, it will greatly increase the chances of a Longhorn win.

3) Limit the boards – Wake’s offensive efficiency is in the top third of the nation, but their field goal percentage is near the bottom. The reason behind the disparity? Strong offensive rebounding allows the Demon Deacons a ton of extra possessions, which typically allows them miss a ton of easy looks before finally scoring on a tip. (Sound familiar, Texas fans?) If the Longhorns can secure the defensive rebounds, it will force Wake to be much, much more efficient with the basketball.

One final stat

As we head to the arena, here is one final stat to chew on during the night sessions. The Longhorns are one of just three teams in this year’s NCAA tournament to have won a first-round game in each of the last four seasons. When things get dicey tonight, as they likely will, keep that fact in mind. And if that stat doesn’t give you confidence, just watch this video of McFarland getting tackled by a Clemson student…

As always, you can follow our Twitter updates from the arena during tonight’s games. We’ll be back in the A.M. with a post-game…and hopefully a look ahead to a second-round opponent.

This is the third match-up this year between the Bears and Longhorns, so fans should be well-acquainted with what both teams bring to the table. If not, you’ll want to revisit the game preview from the first meeting. If you are familiar with the Bears, let’s jump right into what will matter when the game tips in roughly three hours.

1) Who will win the turnover battle? – It seems like quite a simple key to the game, but turnovers have truly been the difference in the series this season. At the Frank Erwin Center, Texas played a fairly ugly game that they would have won if not for a putback just milliseconds before the buzzer. The reason the Longhorns were still in that position was that the Bears coughed it up 20 times on the afternoon.

On Saturday, however, Baylor was the perfect example of steady ball control. While Texas had 18 turnovers and gave up what seemed like 108 fast break points, the Bears had just eight turnovers of their own. These are two very good teams with very little differential in talent. Something as glaring as a -10 turnover margin will certainly spell doom for the Longhorns tonight.

2) Can the Texas frontcourt score against Baylor? – The lengthy, athletic Baylor defense makes it very, very difficult for opponents to score. With Dexter Pittman often struggling to finish at the rim and with the lack of an explosive ballhandler in the backcourt, the Longhorns could find it very difficult to pile up the points tonight. Fortunately, Gary Johnson has had a string of great games down the stretch, including a 25-point, 8-rebound performance against Baylor on Saturday.

Whether it’s Pittman, Johnson, or another workmanlike night from Damion James, the Longhorns simply must score inside against Baylor’s solid 2-3 zone. If they fail to do so and rely on three-pointers and long-range Js, chance are slim that the Horns can survive to the semifinals.

3) Do the Longhorns know how to prevent an alley-oop? – As facetious as this question is, it certainly needs to be asked. Texas conceded approximately 72 rim-rattling alley-oops to Baylor on Saturday, and even allowed two more against the Cyclones last night. Quincy Acy — a man whose only reliable shots are dunks and layups — scored 24 points for Baylor in their win on Saturday. There is almost no chance for Texas to win if they give up that many easy buckets again tonight.

Post-game react will be headed your way in the morning, but for in-game updates from tonight’s quarterfinals, you can follow LRT on Twitter.

As Big 12 play heads into its final day, there is absolutely nothing that is settled. Outside of four seeds — No. 1 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 11 Iowa State, and No. 12 Nebraska — everything is up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. For the Longhorns, there still remains the possibility of the No. 4 seed and the first-round bye that goes with it. Of course, a loss this afternoon means that Texas is locked into the 6-seed and will open the tournament with Iowa State late on Wednesday night.

If Texas does happen to beat Baylor this afternoon, things get a little more interesting. If the Longhorns win and the Aggies lose to the Sooners in a game that is currently underway, Texas would ascend to the No. 4 seed, with Baylor and A&M following up in 5th and 6th. If Texas wins, but the Aggies also win, the Longhorns clinch the No. 5 seed and Baylor takes No. 6.

Of course, none of that matters if the Longhorns lose today, so the team must build on their strong showing in Monday night’s win over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Baylor and their imposing frontcourt provide a very big challenge for the Longhorns to overcome in pursuit of that goal. If you’re not familiar with the Bears or their style of play, you’ll want to check out our brief preview from the first time these two teams met.

Despite horrid free throw shooting, Texas was within milliseconds of a victory over the Bears in that game. But after Ekpe Udoh airballed the game-winning three-point attempt, an Anthony Jones putback with 0.3 seconds on the clock sent the game into overtime. Baylor pulled ahead in the extra five minutes, and escaped with a three-point win as Avery Bradley’s game-tying attempt clanged off the iron at the buzzer.

Check back Sunday evening for post-game reaction, or follow us on Twitter for in-game updates from the Ferrell Center.

We’re just hours away from the final home game for Texas seniors Damion James, Dexter Pittman, and Justin Mason. And although every senior night is a bittersweet experience, this year will be especially conflicting for me.

When I started this journey four years ago, it was just a crazy idea to follow the team around the country for one season and see how they grew. Now four years later, I still haven’t found a way to quit what has become an undeniable addiction. But after watching these three players compete 145 times, in far-flung locales such as Spokane and Greensboro, it feels like perhaps a chapter of my own life is coming to a close.

It’s all a bit heavy to get into when I should be writing a brief game preview that reacquaints you with the Oklahoma Sooners. I’m sure that in a few weeks, once the season is again at its end, I’ll sit down and pound out a few thousand words about all of the conflicting emotions that comes with this bizarre and monumental journey I chose to take. But for now, I’ll try to cram those feelings into just one sentence: I hope that the fans of Texas basketball, no matter how disappointed they feel, show up en masse at 7:45 tonight to give these players the respect and the ovation that they truly deserve.

But back to the actual basketball game……

If you missed the preview from the first match-up in Norman, you’ll want to check that out for more information on the Oklahoma players and style. And if you happened to miss the game itself, you can read the game wrap to learn about the disappointing fashion in which Texas lost.

Tonight, we’ll be keeping our eyes on a few things as the team heads into the final week of the regular season…

1) Can the Longhorns defend the perimeter? – The first time Texas played OU, 20 minutes of poor perimeter defense put the Horns in a hole they could never dig out of. To be fair, a huge reason why the Sooners fared so well from behind the arc was steady shooting from Tommy Mason-Griffin. Even when Texas did manage to get a hand in the face of the diminutive gunner, he still calmly buried the shot. If TMG has that kind of night again at the Erwin Center, the Horns will have a tough time avenging their previous loss. But if TMG is hitting those shots and the rest of the Sooners are again having a field day, Senior Night could be a total disaster.

2) What will J’Covan Brown provide? – The freshman guard is back in the lineup for tonight’s game after suffering a very scary injury on Saturday in College Station, but it’s reasonable to think his role will be very limited. Unfortunately, J’Covan did not look good in the 79 minutes of basketball prior to his injury, struggling against both Oklahoma State and the Aggies. Will the injury inspire Brown to be more competitive and produce at a higher level, or will it make him a more tentative player prone to mistakes? We likely won’t know the complete answers to these questions if he plays just a few minutes, but it’s definitely something we will pay very close attention to when he’s on the court.

3)Will the real Texas frontcourt please stand up? – Once it was Jordan Hamilton who was the most wildly inconsistent player on the Texas roster. Now, it’s an entire personnel group. Gary Johnson followed up huge games against Tech and Oklahoma State by getting pushed around and intimidated by the Aggie big men. After struggling for the better part of two months, Dexter Pittman showed some life against the smaller Cowboys and even had a few flashes of brilliance in the midst of a very disappointing A&M game. Damion James, meanwhile, had no rebounds in the entire first half against the Aggies. Are all of the Texas big men ever going to put it together at the same time for any significant stretch of the season? There’s very little time left for them to do so, but there also isn’t any better time to peak than in March…

Another look at the standings

Thanks to Oklahoma State’s shocking upset of Kansas on Saturday, the Longhorns now could potentially fall all the way to 7th in the final standings if the Cowboys post a better record than Texas in these final two games. The Pokes close with a road game at A&M and a home date with Nebraska. OSU should certainly earn at least one win, so the Longhorns must get a leg up with their own victory tonight.

But while the Horns are now tied with Oklahoma State, they are still just a game back of Baylor, Mizzou, and A&M, who are all tied for third in the league. So with two games left on the slate, Texas could finish as high as third or as low as seventh. That’s a heck of a lot of uncertainty. (And a hell of a headache when it comes to planning your travel to the conference tournament.)

Saturday’s season finale is a very tough road game against a sound Baylor team that stands between Texas and a first-round bye in the league tournament. A win tonight is absolutely critical if the Horns have any designs on one of those two remaining byes. A win would also guarantee that they finish above .500 in league play. A loss in this final home game, and our next preview will be talking about what the Longhorns have to do to stay out of 7th place.

The Texas-Texas A&M rivalry on the hardwood has been an easy one to predict for the last five-plus years. No matter what path each game took, or how many overtimes it took to reach the final result, the home team always prevailed. While the Longhorns have won the last eight times these two teams have played at the Frank Erwin Center, the Aggies defend their home court nearly as well. In the last five meetings at Reed Arena, A&M has been victorious each time.

A win today is even more important than just breaking a five-year road losing streak. It’s more important than holding the ever-popular “Scoreboard!” retort against your most hated in-state rival. Today’s game is a chance for the Longhorns to finally regain some momentum, a chance to win a third consecutive game for the first time since they started the year 17-0. And even more important than that, the winner of today’s game will have a leg up in what is a four-team battle for the two remaining byes in the conference tournament.

What to watch for

1) Can the Texas frontcourt keep it going? – For the first time since a game in early January against Arkansas, Dexter Pittman was incredibly productive against Oklahoma State on Wednesday night, scoring 16 points in 20 minutes to go with eight rebounds and three blocks. It wasn’t just Big Dex having a field day in the frontcourt, though. Damion James and Gary Johnson combined to shoot 8-for-13 from the field, score 26 points, and grab eleven boards.

It should be noted that the Cowboys are a very small team that was very thin in the frontcourt on Wednesday night, so the Texas big men will certainly face a much tougher task this afternoon. Bryan Davis held Pittman to just four points — all from the free-throw line — in 28 minutes of play. The addition of David Loubeau to the starting lineup gives the Aggies an even bigger presence in the frontcourt, so the battle in the paint this afternoon could be a deciding factor.

2) Will Texas attack Loubeau? – Giving Loubeau more minutes has not only made the Aggies more physical, it aids their sometimes-stagnant offense by adding a versatile big man into the mix. Loubeau can score from the midrange as well as inside, and his scoring threat will often pull opposing bigs out of the paint, opening the lane for the Aggie offense. The downside to Loubeau’s new starting gig is that his defense isn’t always that reliable against bigger, more physical Big 12 forwards and centers. If Texas can make it a point to attack the sophomore and try to draw fouls, it could negate A&M’s new, bigger lineup.

3) Can Texas dictate the tempo? – It’s no secret that the Longhorn offense bogs down in half-court sets, and it’s also not a secret that Mark Turgeon’s Aggie defense can be downright nasty. If Texas allows this to become a half-court battle with a low score, it will certainly make it tougher to beat a well-coached A&M squad. It goes against convention to push the tempo and force the issue when playing in a tough road environment, but doing just that could give the Longhorns an offensive boost, while forcing an equally-anemic Aggie offense to score even more to secure the win.

The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center as victors, having withstood a late charge from Texas Tech to secure a narrow 71-67 win on Saturday. But while the victory was huge, it was a loss for Texas that loomed even larger. Dogus Balbay went down early in the first half with an ACL tear that has sidelined him for the rest of the year. Coupled with the November injury to Varez Ward, the once-deep Longhorn backcourt is now in total disarray.

Texas managed to beat Oklahoma State in their first meeting, but a huge reason for the win was the defensive performance of Balbay against OSU superstar James Anderson. After scoring 22 of his team’s 34 first-half points, Anderson was held to just four points in the second half. Without Balbay on the court tonight, Anderson could have a career game.

If you need a refresher on OSU’s style of basketball or their key players, click here for the preview from the first match-up. If you don’t, let’s dive right into our keys for tonight’s game……

Keys to the game

First and foremost, Texas will have to find a way to shut down James Anderson. We hate to belabor a point, but without Balbay, the Longhorns are going to have to find a way to keep the Cowboy guard from going off for 30-plus points. At 6′6″, he’s a tough match-up for Texas, especially when you consider that the best defenders Rick Barnes has on his roster are a pair of 6′2″ guards in Avery Bradley and Justin Mason. While Jordan Hamilton is a better match-up physically for Anderson, his defense consists mostly of watching people blow past him and then compounding the mistake with fouls from behind.

While Anderson is much taller than the Texas backcourt, the Cowboys are actually much smaller across the board than Texas. The Longhorns must control the defensive glass in order to limit the number of Oklahoma State possessions. The Pokes don’t turn the ball over that often, so giving them second and third chances will only serve to keep OSU in the game and wear out an already thin Texas lineup.

In the same vein, the Longhorns also need to take advantage of their size inside. Whether that means Dexter Pittman needs to step up and have the kind of game we haven’t seen from him since Fayetteville, or if it means that Gary Johnson has a second-straight career game by hustling down low, the fact remains that Texas must make its easy looks. The first time these teams met, the Longhorns missed a lot of shots just a few feet from the basket. Had Jordan Hamilton not had a magical game, Texas would have ended up on the losing end.

The biggest thing we will be looking at tonight is how J’Covan Brown handles point guard duties. As we wrote yesterday, failing to play him at this point amounts to giving up on the season. There will certainly be hiccups along the way, but now this is undoubtedly J’Covan’s team to run, and we are very interested in seeing how he handles the pressure.

Texas hasn’t won two games in a row in over a month, a stretch in which the team has lost six out of ten. Tonight provides the Longhorns an opportunity to finally string a pair of wins together, and to position itself for quite a battle in the league standings during this last week and a half.

The five teams in places three through seven are separated by just one game, and with only four more games on each team’s schedule, there is little room for error. A Texas win tonight means that there is quite a bit on the line this Saturday in College Station. A loss likely means that this former No. 1 team won’t even earn a bye in its conference tournament.

Not much time to do a proper game preview for this one, but fortunately you can find most everything you’ll need to know about the Red Raiders in the preview from the first meeting of these two teams. Texas won that game 95-83, fueled in large part by surprising offensive outbursts from Dogus Balbay and Justin Mason.

The big difference in this afternoon’s match-up is that Tech will once again have the services of Darko Cohaderavic and D’walyn Roberts, two frontcourt players who will completely change the complexion of the game. The Red Raiders were incredibly thin when these teams first played each other, and the high pace of the game made it easier for Texas to pull away late despite playing absolutely horrible defense. There’s very little chance that will be the case this afternoon.

Fans can probably also expect to see Tech work the ball inside a little more than they did in the first meeting. Coach Pat Knight likes to try to get Cohaderavic going early, not only to earn the easy points inside, but to open things up for his other slashing, athletic wings and guards. A lot of responsibility will fall on the shoulders of the Longhorn frontcourt to ensure that gameplan doesn’t come to fruition.

In addition, Texas also will likely not enjoy another breakout performance from Balbay or Mason. Neither has played at that level since that game, and both have had their minutes significantly cut. Fortunately, J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton have stepped up and performed admirably in their expanded roles. Texas will need solid offensive games out of that pair of freshmen in order to produce this afternoon.

Finally, it must also be noted that United Spirit Arena is a surprisingly tough place for visiting teams to win at. It’s not that there are loud, intimidating crowds here in Lubbock. And it’s not that Tech usually fields good teams that catch even better teams off guard. But for whatever reason, ranked teams often leave United Spirit with a loss, and for a Texas squad that has piled up quite a few of those L’s in recent weeks, it’s something to be concerned about.

It has been a long, interesting month for the Longhorns. On January 17th, Texas was ranked No. 1 in the nation and held a pristine 17-0 mark. Just a day later, the Horns would start a slide in which they lost five out of seven games and plummeted from the upper crust of college basketball. But on Saturday, Texas once again looked like the dominant team that fans watched the first two months of the season. In a 40-point beating of Nebraska, the Longhorns were highly efficient on both ends of the court, and the much-heralded freshmen finally all put it together in the same game.

Texas’ recent performance has made fans hesitant to get excited once again. While the Longhorns certainly looked unstoppable on Saturday, their skittish performances the previous four weeks have planted a seed of doubt in the minds of most. Tonight, the Longhorns will find out whether or not they have turned a corner. In facing a very tough Missouri team in a very intimidating road enviornment, Texas will likely find what their true identity is. Are they a scuttling group that is squandering immeasurable talent? Or are they a team that is finally going to hit their stride, just in time for March?

By the numbers

As fans of college basketball are well aware, Mike Anderson and the Tigers play an up-tempo, pressure style of hoops they have dubbed “The Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball.” Anderson was once as assistant under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas, where the “40 Minutes of Hell” led to a national title, and Mike’s re-branding of the time-tested strategy actually led the Tigers to last year’s Elite Eight.

Missouri leads the Big 12 with 20.4 turnovers forced per game. The impact of that pressure defense is magnified by the fact that the Tigers only cough it up about thirteen times per game, so the differential gives the Tigers a bunch of extra possessions. In addition, 11.4 of the turnovers that Mizzou forces each game come in the form of steals, which is tops in the nation. Keeping the ball in play — rather than forcing TOs on passes out of bounds — gives the Tigers more points in transition.

That transition game is a big reason why the Tiger offense is ranked 42nd nationally in efficiency by stat guru Ken Pomeroy. Missouri’s gameplan can often feel like a tiny snowball building into an avalanche, as one turnover leads to an easy bucket, which lets them set up their full-court press, which forces another turnover and a layup, and they get to set up their defense…… You get the picture.

Tonight’s game is likely to be a full-on track meet. The Tigers average 72.1 possessions per game, which is the 20th-fastest tempo in the nation. (As you can see, the “Fastest 40″ moniker is a bit of false advertising.) The Longhorns, meanwhile, average 74.5 possessions, which is 7th-fastest in the NCAAs. Unless Texas decides to make a conscious effort to slow the pace, this game will be played at break-neck speed.

When Missouri isn’t scoring their points off of transition, their half-court sets are very impressive. Good, strong cuts and quick ball movement earn the Tigers quite a few open looks, and strong dribble penetration leads to open three-point shots on the kick-outs. Missouri makes over 38% of their looks from long range, so Texas must make sure they don’t let the Tigers get too hot from behind the arc.

Meet the Tigers

After losing DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons to the NBA draft, Missouri needed to find a way to replace their 31 points and 13 rebounds per game. Fortunately for Coach Anderson, his lineup is filled with players who possess similar skills and body types. While no one has quite filled the frontcourt void left by these two stars, the Tigers are finding that their system and interchangeable personnel allows for quick reloading from year to year.

This year, Missouri’s senior leaders come in the form of J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor. Tiller was the Big 12’s top defensive player last season, and he’s picked up right where he left off. He has 32 steals so far this year, while only fouling out of one game. His offensive skillset is limited mostly to driving the lane for easy looks, so Tiller is fortunately one Tiger that Texas won’t have to watch on the perimeter.

Texas fans should remember Taylor quite well. Last year, he converted an old-fashioned three-point play in the final seconds to defeat the Longhorns, and hit a short jumper against Kansas to win in the Border War just a few days later. Nicknamed “Big Shot” for his heroics in those two games, Taylor is a pretty good outside shooter (39.7% behind the arc), and is averaging eight points per game.

The backcourt is where all the depth is for Missouri this year, but most of the Tiger guards are much taller than those of the Longhorns. The tallest of them all is 6′6″ Kim English, a sophomore guard who’s best known for sleeping in the gym. He’s leading the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per game, and much of it comes from long range. English has knocked down 53 triples on the year, and is shooting 37.6% from the perimeter.

Another long-range threat in the backcourt is sophomore Marcus Denmon. In his second season, he’s stepped into the spotlight, making more than 44% of his three-point attempts while scoring about eleven points per game. If there is one player that Texas absolutely cannot lose track of tonight, it’s Denmon.

While the Missouri lineup is littered with guys from 6′6″ to 6′8″ who are all quick, athletic, and have great wingpan, the most disruptive has to be Justin Safford. At 6′8″, his wingspan is much longer than it should be, and it makes him great at denial on entry passes and has helped him log 18 blocked shots this year. Safford didn’t see a lot of action down the stretch last season, but he’s averaging 21 minutes per game in his junior campaign and is consistently making solid contributions.

While Safford is long and defensively disruptive, the true shot blocker on the team is Keith Ramsey. He led the team in swats last year, and is second on the squad this year with 29 blocks. He’s not much of a scorer, but he is one of the only real frontcourt presences on a perimeter-oriented team. Ramsey will be relied on tonight to clean the glass and deny the Texas bigs down low.

The other frontcourt presence is sophomore Laurence Bowers. Hailing from Memphis, Bowers has been described by the coaches as the team’s most complete player, and in just his second season, he’s already starting to show why. He leads the team in blocked shots and rebounds, is third in scoring, and even has 27 steals. While Bowers is already making an impact in the Big 12, there’s no doubt that he is going to be an absolute star in the coming years.

Each of the seven players above is averaging more than 20 minutes a game, with none of them playing for more than 26.7 per contest. Anderson loves to constantly change his lineups, running essentially nine deep in an effort to wear down the opponents and keep his own players fresh enough to keep up the pressure. Texas is also a very deep team, but in recent weeks Rick Barnes has been working to pare down his core rotation. It will be interesting to see how Texas uses its personnel in response to Anderson’s substitution style.

The other two players who see significant minutes for the Tigers are freshman Michael Dixon and sophomore guard Miguel Paul. Dixon was Mr. Basketball for the state of Missouri as a high school senior last year, and he’s made a solid impression on the Big 12 so far as a freshman. He’s quick, smart with the basketball, and has a sound grasp of what Anderson’s defense requires from him. Paul is also a quick guard and a serviceable shooter, but doesn’t make that much of an impact on the stat sheet in his twelve minutes per game.

Keys to the game

While it may be painfully obvious already, the number one thing Texas must do tonight is control the basketball. Missouri’s pressure defense is even more effective in front of their rowdy crowd, so the Longhorns can’t afford to fuel the fire by wasting possessions and giving up easy fast break points. A lot of this will come down to the play of J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton, who have been two of the biggest turnover culprits in the past. As freshmen, they’ve only seen a handful of road arenas. Hopefully their experience at the electric Octagon of Doom was enough to prepare them for tonight.

Along the same lines, Texas must remain poised. At some point, Missouri will go on a run. With their style of play and the Texas penchant for scoring droughts, it’s practically a certainty. But the Longhorns must respond tonight when they get metaphorically punched in the mouth, or else they will find themselves with a deficit they will be unable to overcome.

In addition, Texas must efficiently use Dexter Pittman. In this type of game, he’s not going to be able to play for very long. But when he is on the court, he will undoubtedly be a tough match-up for the smaller Missouri lineup. If the Longhorns can get a nice chunk of points from Big Pitt, and maybe even pick up some fouls on the thin Tiger frontcourt, it could change the complexion of the game.

Finally, one brief reminder about the perimeter threat from the Tigers. Mizzou’s excellent three-point accuracy was mentioned throughout the player introductions, but Longhorn fans know all-too-well how Texas opponents tend to get ridiculously hot from long range. If Missouri shoots like the Sooners did in Norman or the Red Raiders did in Austin, there’s very little chance Texas leaves Columbia with a win.

The big picture

In terms of the conference standings, this game is huge. With just five games remaining after tonight’s contest, there is very little time to make up ground and practically no room for error. Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, and Texas have separated themselves from the pack and are all log-jammed from spots two through six in the standings.

If the Longhorns want a bye in the first round of the conference tournament, they have to win the remaining head-to-head meetings against the Aggies, Bears, and Tigers. Lose tonight, and it’s very likely the Horns will be playing the Big 12’s 11- or 12-seed on the second Wednesday in March.

After losing five of their last seven games, the Longhorns are faced with what is certainly a must-win. With four road games left in the final seven games, Texas must win every home game on the schedule to ensure they have a shot to earn of the league’s four first-round byes in the conference tournament. Fortunately for the Horns, this afternoon’s game is one that they certainly should win, against a team that is young, shorthanded, and much less talented.

Doc Sadler’s Cornhuskers have been dealing with injuries to their top players all season long. Before the year even began, Nebraska lost Christopher Niemann, a 6′11″ sophomore who would have been the team’s starting center. With the loss of the team’s big man, explosive guard Toney McCray decided to try to play through an elbow injury when doctors suggested he would need surgery. After just three games, McCray realized he couldn’t play through the pain and packed it in for the year. With two of the team’s presumed starters out of the mix, Sadler has had to rely on a bunch of freshmen and JuCo transfers to get through the season.

Junior guard Lance Jeter is one of those transfers, a stocky point guard built in the mold of Byron Eaton. He played football at Cincinatti before transferring to Lincoln, and it shows in the way he can barrel through defenders. Jeter isn’t a very fast guard and he tends to dribble the air out of the ball, but without him on the floor, the Nebraska offense often looks lost. The Longhorns should easily be able to keep Jeter in front of them on defense, but should keep an eye on him beyond the arc, where he’s hitting 39% of his looks.

When Jeter isn’t manning the point, the duties typically fall to Sek Henry. Unfortunately, Henry is a defensive specialist and not a quality floor general. Pressure on Henry beyond the perimeter will often stifle the Husker offense before it can even get going. On the other side of the ball, though, the Longhorn guards are going to be frustrated by Sek all afternoon long.

Ryan Anderson is arguably an even better defender than Henry, logging nearly two steals per game. On a team with a slow pace of play, that stat speaks volumes. For the last three years, Anderson has had to play out of position thanks to a lack of post depth on the Nebraska roster. This year, the Huskers have more bodies down low, so Anderson is able to work more from the wing and attack off the dribble. Thanks to his previous experience playing down low, Anderson is able to put it in the hoop in a variety of ways, and is the team’s leading scorer.

Just behind Anderson in the scoring ranks is Jorge Brian Diaz, a redshirt freshman from Puerto Rico who has really developed nicely over the course of the year. He still makes some boneheaded mistakes and misses some point blank looks, but he seems to be adjusting to the physical post play in the Big 12. In addition to banging around down low, Diaz also has a pretty good turnaround jumper that can certainly frustrate his defender.

Also eating up minutes in the frontcourt is German-born Christian Standhardinger. Like Dogus Balbay, Standhardinger played on a foreign team with professionals, and was forced to sit out the first half of the year as a result. Since joining the roster for conference play, Standhardinger has played at a high level of intensity. He’s a scrappy player who is always hustling, and is reminiscent of OU’s Eduardo Najera in both playing style and hair style.

The third big man in the mix for Doc Sadler is freshman Brandon Ubel. At 6′10″, the Huskers are expecting big things out of the Overland Park native, but so far he has yet to impress. Ubel misses a lot of easy looks in the paint and gets pushed around pretty easily by opposing bigs. With some experience and muscle, he’s going to make an impact in future seasons, but for now he’s mostly quiet in his 16 minutes per game.

With Ubel spending more time on the bench, Quincy Hankins-Cole has recently seen more PT as a frontcourt reserve. He’s another junior-college transfer, so he gives Sadler more experience and more polished play than the freshmen sometimes do. Hankins-Cole isn’t a flashy player or a superstar-in-waiting, but he provides quality minutes down low and will earn a few points and rebounds every game.

Brandon Richardson is the team’s third-leading scorer, and has made quite a jump from his freshman year to his sophomore one. Richardson is a favorite of Coach Sadler thanks to his hard-nosed play and hustle, but he’s also a pretty good shooter and is nearly automatic from the line. He’s not going to score a ton of points, but where he’ll be noticed this afternoon is on the defensive end, as he will likely make life miserable for the Texas guards.

The biggest impact off the bench often comes from guard Eshaunte Jones, nicknamed “The Bear.” He’s hitting more than 44% of his looks behind the arc, where he’s taken 79 attempts on the year. If Nebraska manages to play their style of basketball this afternoon, Jones could be the difference an upset win or another road loss.

Keys to the game

If the Longhorns are going to win this one easily, they must dictate the speed of the game. The Cornhuskers are one of the 50 slowest teams in the country, and they try to win basketball games by limiting possessions and keeping it close with suffocating defense. If Texas can increase the number of possessions, it will magnify the difference in skill between these two offenses, and the Horns should cruise to a victory. If Nebraska manages to slow things down and keep the score in the 50- or 60-point range, it could be another close one for Texas.

As Mark Rosner reported last night, J’Covan Brown will be in the starting lineup. At the end of the Kansas game, fans saw Brown attack the rim and force the issue. They also saw him make a few turnovers down the stretch that helped scuttle a late comeback try. The Longhorns must have J’Covan play smart basketball against a very well-coached defensive team. If he is making mistakes that give Nebraska extra possessions, it plays right into their game plan.

Finally, it’s important that Dexter Pittman breaks out. This isn’t necessarily a key to the game, as Texas can still probably beat Nebraska without a big game from Big Pitt. But it’s clear that he has lost some confidence on the offensive end, and he will certainly be needed down the stretch in conference play. If Pittman can have a quality game against the Huskers, perhaps it will give him a much-needed boost for the final weeks of the season.

Just one month ago, fans of Texas and Kansas were eagerly looking forward to tonight’s match-up. Their teams were undefeated and ranked in the top two slots nationally. The winner of the sole match-up between the two schools would likely have the inside track to a Big 12 title and a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament. Everything seemed to be aligning for an epic showdown.

Things certainly haven’t gone according to plan. First, Kansas stumbled with a road loss against a horribly depleted Tennessee team, propelling the Longhorns to their first-ever No. 1 ranking in school history. Texas was only able to hold on to that spot for one week before hitting a horrendous skid where they lost four out of six games.

After all those speedbumps, February 8th is finally here. But the day that was once circled on so many calendars is now just another Monday in conference play. The game has lost most of its luster, with Texas sliding down the polls and the bracket projections. The Jayhawks hold a commanding 2.5-game lead in the conference standings, and will likely cruise to yet another Big 12 title.

But for Texas, this game is huge. It’s not big because of seeding or even important for the conference standings. The Longhorns desperately need a win tonight to restore some confidence. It’s been crystal clear on the faces of the Texas players for the last few weeks — this team is looking for answers, and they are getting desperate that they have been unable to find them. What better way to re-instill some swagger than a gut-check win over the nation’s top team?

By the numbers

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that will not be an easy task. The Jayhawks come into the game with the 2nd-most efficient offense and 4th-most efficient defense in the country. Kansas is just one of two teams that has efficiency rankings in the top ten on both sides of the ball, with the other being Syracuse. That all-around dominance gives the Jayhawks a differential of +0.361 points per possession. That may seem like a small number, but when you multiply it out by 60 or 70 possessions per game, you quickly realize just how good Bill Self’s team has been.

The main reason KU is so efficient on offense is that they are loaded with talent from top to bottom. They can score in a variety of ways, and from anywhere on the floor. If you take away their inside game, they kill you from long range. Sell out to stop the perimeter attack, and you’re decimated by the frontcourt. The Jayhawks are hitting 41% of their threes on the year, and nearly 50% from the field. It’s certainly a matter of picking your poison when trying to defend Kansas.

When Texas has the ball, they are going to have to deal with a defense that simply does not allow teams to score inside. For the Longhorns, that can mean all sorts of trouble. It’s no secret that Texas has been absolutely stymied when opponents force them to settle for long-range jumpers, so Rick Barnes will have to find a way for his team to attack the stingy interior defense. Unfortunately, the ‘Hawks are 12th in the nation when it comes to blocks, typically because big man Cole Aldrich is often waiting as a secondary defender to swat away any ill-conceived shots.

Meet the Jayhawks

Aldrich is not just a phenomenal shot blocker. He also is a beast on the boards, and is the perfect compliment down low for Kansas’ excellent outside shooting. Self often has Cole setting screens in the high post or on the perimeter, and his height makes it very easy for him to catch a pass on the pick-and-roll before flushing it home. The only real knock on Aldrich’s offensive game is that he has a bizarre shooting motion that makes it far too easy to defend him on pick-and-pop plays.

As we’ve already mentioned, Aldrich gets a ton of blocks when he rotates over on help defense. That leaves the Jayhawks susceptible to dribble penetration by guards who then dump it off to open players on the blocks. Last year in Lawrence, Texas rode this strategy to an early lead. If the Longhorns can actually capitalize on the easy one- and two-foot looks they have been missing in the last few weeks, that type of attack should keep them in the game tonight.

The other big-time star joining Aldrich in the starting five is All-American senior Sherron Collins. He’s an incredibly quick guard with really long range, so teams have to decide whether they prefer to give up the blow-by when they crowd him, or give him looks beyond the arc when they sag to prevent the drive. He’s the team’s leading scorer with more than 15 points per game, but he also is a good distributor, logging more than four assists each night. Quite a few of those assists come when he drives the lane and kicks it out past the collapsing D, resulting in a wide-open three from one of Kansas’ many long-range gunners.

Collins is also very strong for a guy his size, so he’s able to finish through contact at the rim. Texas really can’t afford to have their frontcourt in foul trouble tonight, so if they do have to burn some fouls when Collins is driving, they have to make sure he doesn’t finish for an and-one.

Brady Morningstar has once again cracked the starting lineup after missing the first month of the season due to a DUI arrest in October. He’s a lockdown defender that will give the Longhorn guards a headache all night. As if his defense wasn’t enough, Morningstar is a capable ballhandler that can allow Collins to work himself open off the ball, and he’s also a heck of a three-point shooter. He’s making nearly 45% of his attempts from long range, and will surely make some daggers against the Longhorns tonight.

Joining Collins and Morningstar in the backcourt is freshman phenom Xavier Henry. At 6′6″, Henry is anything but just a guard, and he will make plays all over the court tonight. He’s left-handed, which always seems to make players harder to defend, and he can shoot from anywhere. Give him space, and he’ll calmly knock down a three. Cut off his driving lane, and he’ll pull up to kiss it off the glass. Give him an uninterrupted path to the basket, and he’ll throw down a dunk that will show up on Sportscenter’s Top Ten after the game.

In addition, Henry’s tall frame allows him to get many more rebounds than your typical guard. And against a Texas team that often runs three-guard looks and sometimes uses Gary Johnson in the power forward role, Henry is likely going to have a good night on the glass. He’s averaging four boards a game from the swingman role, and there’s a very good chance he’ll exceed that tonight.

The only forward in the starting lineup for KU is Marcus Morris, one half of the twin duo from Philadelphia. Like brother Markieff Morris, Marcus added about twenty pounds in the offseason and his inside game has improved as a result. He’s finishing more baskets inside and is pulling down 6.3 boards per game, second only to Aldrich. He’s always had three-point range — although it’s been overshadowed on a team with shooters like Collins and Morningstar — but Marcus has also developed his midrange game this year. Now he has a nice baseline jumper to compliment his skill set, and it’s typically good out to fourteen feet.

Brother Markieff is coming off the bench for about fifteen minutes per game, but isn’t quite as polished as Marcus. He still has a tendency to pick up dumb, frustration fouls that limit his minutes, and his offensive skill set isn’t as refined as his brother’s. Markieff is averaging six points and five boards per game, so he should still make an impact in his time on the court tonight.

Guard Tyshawn Taylor has been relegated to the bench since Morningstar’s return to the starting lineup, and at one point he was apparently so frustrated that he voiced a desire to transfer on his Facebook. The post was immediately removed and Self was testy with reporters who brought it up, but questions still linger about the chemistry in the locker room between the guards.

When Taylor is on the floor, he’s a very quick guard who can speed past defenders off the dribble. The key is to give him enough space that he’s forced to beat you with a jump shot. Like Collins, Taylor is a combo guard who earns his fair share of assists (3.3 in 22 minutes per game), but is not as good of a jump shooter. He’s still serviceable in the midrange and behind the arc, but if the Longhorns can keep Taylor in front of them and put a little bit of pressure on him while shooting, it will certainly help their chances tonight.

Tyrel Reed is the only other Jayhawk who plays significant minutes, and he’s another guard that is deadly from long range. He’s making more than 44% of his three-point attempts this year, so Texas must always be aware of his location when he’s on the court.

Keys to the game

While the Kansas half-court offense is highly efficient and can beat you in a variety of ways, the Jayhawks also earn a lot of points in transition. They don’t force a ton of turnovers — Pomeroy has them ranked just 157th in that category — but they do push the tempo off of rebounds and made buckets. Texas must limit fast break points, and has to set up their defense quickly enough to limit the secondary break points as well.

In addition, the Longhorns have to break through the interior D. The Jayhawks are nearly impenetrable inside, and Texas is not the most reliable outside shooting team. If the Horns can attack like the rim like they were in the second half of the OU game, perhaps they can create foul trouble for Aldrich and the Morris twins. And of course, we all know that consistent inside play will open up the midrange and outside games, as well.

Finally, the most simple of our keys to the game is that Texas must execute. During this tough three-week stretch, the Longhorns have been plagued by simple errors, be it missed shots from point-blank range, stupid turnovers, or poor shot selection and possessions. I’ve purposely left free-throw shooting off this list, because it’s perfectly clear that this will not get better any time soon.

Obviously, if the Longhorns shoot 37% from the line again, as they did on Saturday, they have absolutely no chance to win tonight. But if they hover around their season average of 61% and actually do the other things correctly, they should be within striking distance during the final minutes of the game. And for a team that has struggled as much as Texas has lately, that’s pretty much all you can ask for.

While Kansas is a very scary team that plays well on both sides of the ball, they are certainly beatable. They were taken to overtime in road games against Kansas State and Colorado, and even let Nebraska — the worst team in the league — hang around with them at Allen Fieldhouse. The Frank Erwin Center is rarely a home-court advantage, but when Kansas comes to town, it always is. The Longhorns haven’t played very well as of late, but they have the talent needed to win this game and perhaps enough desperation to play like they cannot lose.