The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10″ Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

In a season where the Texas Longhorns are at risk of losing their 13-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the young team has had more than its fair share of chances to notch marquee wins. On the road against Kansas State and Baylor, the Horns had the ball on the final possession with a chance to tie the game. Both times, Texas failed to come up with the clutch basket. At home against Kansas, the Longhorns led by four with 3:24 to play, but didn’t score another field goal en route to a crushing loss.

All of this late-game futility adds up to an 0-6 record in games decided by two possessions or less, a stat that will haunt Longhorn fans if their team ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is now just 1-5 in games against the RPI Top 50, an important metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Thanks to Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns can add one more Top 50 win if the Cyclones can climb at least two spots in today’s RPI update.

Without knowing who Texas will face in the Big 12 Tournament, it appears that the Horns have four more opportunities against RPI Top 50 squads, with three of them coming at home. The next chance for a résumé-building win comes tonight, in the form of the Missouri Tigers. It may seem early to start calling games “must-wins,” but the Longhorns are quickly running out of time to make their case. Texas needs to get over the hump and start turning these close losses into big-time wins.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri players, stats, and tendencies, check out the preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas opened in a zone defense against the Tigers, and Missouri quickly made the Horns pay with an incredible 73% mark from behind the arc in the first 20 minutes. Texas fell behind by as much as 16 points in the first half, compounding the poor perimeter defense with a string of miscues on offense. The Longhorns ended 22% of their possessions with a turnover, including back-to-back first-half possessions that ended on a shot clock violation and a five-count.

Even with the turnovers, Texas posted one of its most efficient offensive performances in conference play. The Longhorns scored 1.135 points per possession, the second-best mark achieved against the Tigers all year. J’Covan Brown was a huge part of the success, scoring 34 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, including an 85.7% mark from long range. Myck Kabongo also came up big for the Horns, aggressively attacking the lane as he logged his first collegiate double-double.

For the Tigers, Flip Pressey was the catalyst. He scored seven points in a 50-second stretch just after the Longhorns had cut the lead to five in the second half, effectively icing the win for his team. Just a 26% three-point shooter on the season, he drilled 3-of-7 against the Horns and consistently sliced up the Longhorn defense, scoring 18 to go with 10 assists. Ricardo Ratliffe was the main benefactor of the great Missouri guard penetration, scoring 21 points on a 10-of-12 shooting day.

Since then…

Ratliffe hasn’t slowed down since the win over Texas, earning Big 12 Conference Player of the Week honors for dominating performances against Texas A&M and Baylor. The big man scored 17 points and grabbed boards against the Aggies, then followed it up with a career-high 27 points in the road win over the Bears.

On Wednesday night, the Tigers suffered their second conference loss in a game where the importance of Ratliffe’s efficiency in the paint was underscored. Although he scored 25 points in the loss, his string of superhuman shooting percentages came to an end with a 10-of-17 line against Oklahoma State. It was the first time since the season opener that Ratliffe had missed more than three shots in a game.

The Tigers followed up the loss with a surprisingly close game against Texas Tech at home. The Red Raiders actually held the Tigers to just 1.03 points per possession, the team’s worst offensive efficiency number in their 19 wins. Tech limited Ratliffe to an eight-point, four-rebound afternoon, forcing the Missouri guards to carry the team. Kim English responded and knocked down 4-of-6 from behind the arc, but the rest of the Tigers were just 2-for-15 from long range. Missouri still held on for a 13-point win over the Red Raiders, but looked rather vulnerable heading into an important week where they travel to Texas and host Kansas.

Keys to the game

1) Stop dribble penetration – The four-guard look from Missouri was practically impossible for the Longhorns to stop when the teams met in Columbia earlier this month. As a result, the scrambling Texas defense was consistently out of position in the paint, leading to easy hoops for the guards and tons of points for Ratliffe. The Longhorns must stop the ball tonight and force the Tigers to beat them with contested jumpers, or else they will find themselves in another shootout with the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

2) Keep the backcourt humming – Both Brown and Kabongo had solid outings against Missouri the first time around, and both performed very well at Baylor on Saturday afternoon. If the pair of Longhorn guards can continue that high level of play against the Tigers tonight, the team should be able to find the same kind of offensive success that they did at Mizzou Arena. Throw in a little bit of defense, and that couldbe enough for a win this time around.

3) Chapman must avoid the whistles – In addition to the dribble penetration, the foul trouble that kept Clint Chapman on the bench gave Ratliffe and Steve Moore a hall pass in the lane. Chapman was again hounded by personals in the loss to Baylor on Saturday, and you can be sure that the Tigers will attack him tonight. The big man will have to be smart with his fouls and maximize his minutes if the Longhorns want to earn the upset.

4) Win the battle on the glass – Texas actually did a good job keeping Missouri off of the offensive glass during the first meeting, holding the Tigers to an offensive rebounding mark below 29%. Unfortunately, there weren’t many missed shots from Mizzou, so that strong performance on the boards didn’t amount to much. If the Longhorns can actually force some misses in this one, another solid night on the glass will make things much tougher for the Tigers this time around. The Horns should also be able to capitalize on the offensive end, as they reclaimed 47.1% of their misses in the first game and turned those extra chances into 17 points.

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11″ forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

The main knock on PJ3′s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.

With a third of the conference schedule now in the rear-view mirror, the Texas Longhorns are clinging perilously to the NCAA bubble. The young team had two big résumé-building wins within their grasp during the last week, but let both slip through their fingers. Down two against Kansas State last Wednesday, the Longhorns had the ball with 20 seconds left, but turned it over to preserve a Wildcat victory. On Saturday, Texas was up four on a top-five Kansas team with 3:24 left, but failed to score a field goal the rest of the way and let another big win fall through the cracks.

Those losses mean that the Longhorns are now 0-5 in games decided by six points or less. Even more importantly, those two games were missed opportunities to log victories over teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, a key statistic used by the NCAA Selection Committee when choosing teams to put in the tournament.

While the Iowa State Cyclones are currently just 52nd in the RPI, tonight’s game still amounts to a must-win. Against Top 100 RPI competition, the Longhorns are 1-6, with only eight more games against Top 100 teams left on the schedule. Five of those are at the Erwin Center, so Texas must defend home court against quality competition, a trend they can start tonight.

The first meeting

The Longhorns looked to be in a good position when Iowa State do-everything star Royce White was saddled with two early fouls. Unfortunately, the Cyclones made up for their MVP’s absence by torching the Longhorns from long range. At half, Iowa State held a 10-point lead, thanks to an incredible 9-of-12 mark from behind the arc.

Texas roared back in the opening minutes of the second half, powered by a suddenly-rejuvenated J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns completely erased the deficit in less than three minutes, but the comeback bid stalled out following an ankle injury to Brown. The junior stayed in the game for a few more minutes, but was completely ineffective. When he headed to the bench for good, Texas trailed just 49-47. For the next six minutes, the Horns could only manage seven free throws, and Iowa State rebuilt a lead they would never relinquish.

The big story of the game for the Longhorns was the emergence of Clint Chapman. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 19 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 78% from the field. Texas made a concerted effort to get the big man involved early, and the Longhorn guards consistently found him open when they penetrated the lane. The game was clearly a turning point for Chapman, who has exploded in conference play, averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 27.7 minutes. In non-conference games, Chapman had scored just five points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Since then…

Iowa State quickly proved that the win over Texas was no fluke, obliterating Texas A&M in College Station on the strength of a triple-double from White, who was still battling flu-like symptoms. The Cyclone schedule quickly toughened up and tested the surprise team, although the transfer-laden roster performed admirably in close games against Missouri and at Kansas. With their record leveled at 2-2, the Cyclones took care of business last week against lower-tier teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, although it took a last-second, banked-in three by Scott Christopherson to knock off the Cowboys in regulation.

In conference play, White is averaging a double-double, scoring 12 points per game to go with 10.2 boards. His free-throw shooting, which has been a constant battle, continues to be subpar. The big man has made just 42.9% of his free throws in Big 12 play, so you can be sure that the Longhorns will be making him earn his points when he gets them out of position on defense.

Freshman Tyrus McGee has also increased his contributions in league play, earning Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors for stellar performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. McGee was a blistering 11-of-20 from long range and scored 37 points in the two games, and he also set a career-high with nine boards against the Cowboys.

McGee is not the only Cyclone killing it from long range, and as a result, Iowa State has actually increased the number of threes they attempt. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones have taken 44% of their shots from behind the arc, but when they make 38.8% of their attempts, you can’t blame them. In addition to McGee’s 48% mark in Big 12 games, Iowa State is also getting a solid 41.7% success rate from Christopherson.

Meet the Cyclones
For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out the game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the damage from deep – When a team takes nearly half its shots from three-point range, there’s no way you can hope to completely shut down the perimeter. Instead, Texas must attempt to limit the damage that the Cyclones do from outside. Iowa State came out on fire against the Horns in Ames, so you would have to think that Texas will be playing much tighter on the perimeter in this one. If the Longhorns can hold Iowa State at or below their Big 12 rate of 38.8% behind the arc, they have to like their chances.

2) Be aggressive – Texas was able to penetrate at will during the first meeting when J’Covan Brown was in the game. He and Myck Kabongo will have to do the same tonight to ensure that the offense finds success. When teams cut off Texas’ dribble penetration and hedge hard on ball screens, the Longhorns often stand around for the majority of the shot clock before putting up a challenged shot. Texas obviously cannot afford to do that tonight, so the Horns will have to attack early.

3) Get to the line – Building off of the last point, the Longhorns need to earn a chunk of points at the charity stripe tonight. Texas has scored nearly 27% of its points from the line in conference play, thanks in large part to an impressive 76.4% mark at the stripe. With an offense that can often stall and lose all semblance of movement, manufacturing those points with free throws is key.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Sheldon McClellan did an excellent job earning the whistles, scoring 10 of his 14 points at the line, and the Horns scored nearly 34% of their points on free throws. Doing the same tonight will not only help Texas add to the point total, but it could also handcuff Royce White with foul trouble.

The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center after a difficult two-game road trip, but simply returning to a friendly arena won’t make things any easier. This afternoon, Texas has the unenviable task of squaring off with the league-leading Kansas Jayhawks, who arrive in Austin on five days’ rest and riding high after an authoritative win over previously-undefeated Baylor.

We’ve made much of the tough six-game stretch that Texas is currently in the midst of, but this afternoon marks the first of three home games out of the team’s next four contests. While knocking off Kansas, Iowa State, or Missouri won’t be easy — even at home — if the Longhorns are to add to their weak NCAA résumé, the Erwin Center is the most likely place to do it.

The Jayhawks have won all three of their true road games so far this season, but all three wins came against rather weak competition. Southern Cal, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have an average KenPom rank of 154 in D-I hoops, while the Longhorns currently check in at 25th in Pomeroy’s rankings. Kansas has knocked off big-name teams already this year in the likes of Georgetown, Ohio State, and Baylor, but none came in a true road environment.

By the numbers

For the last seven seasons, the Jayhawks have either won or shared the league’s regular season title, and have added five conference tournament championships during that same stretch. Many observers, myself included, thought that this year would be the season Kansas was finally knocked off of its throne atop the Big 12. Kansas lost four of five starters from last year’s Elite Eight team, but Bill Self has done a phenomenal coaching job to keep his team among the nation’s elite.

Kansas is one of just three teams to have both their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies ranked in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. That unstoppable offense and suffocating defense add up to a scoring differential of +0.331 point per possession. Even in their first five conference games, which included contests against Baylor and Kansas State, the Jayhawks still have an impressive differential of +0.274.

Kansas has a Player of the Year candidate in Thomas Robinson down low, and his imposing presence is a big reason why the Jayhawks have one of the nation’s five best marks in two-point field-goal defense. On offense, his dominance also has helped Kansas post a 54.4% shooting percentage inside the arc, and allowed the Jayhawks to reclaim 37.1% of their missed shots. When a team shoots as well as Kansas does and gets a lot of second and third chances, it is very difficult to get a stop.

That rebounding advantage extends to the the other end of the court, as well, where the Jayhawks check in just outside the top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. KU opponents snag just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, making it very important for teams to be shooting well if they want to beat the ‘Hawks. Texas has actually done a very good job on the offensive glass so far this year, with a 39.7% mark that is 11th-best in the nation. If the Longhorns want to pull off the upset, they will have to continue to crash the glass and extend possessions against a tough Kansas D.

Meet the Jayhawks

When you introduce a guy as a contender for national Player of the Year, it goes without saying that he’s the star of his team. Already a dominant player as a sixth man last year, Thomas Robinson (No. 0) has taken over the role vacated by the Morris twins and has put up eye-popping numbers all season long.

T-Rob has logged thirteen double-doubles on the year, and actually averages one as well, scoring 17.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Lest you think those numbers were built against creampuff opponents, it should be pointed out that his stats are even better against Big 12 foes. In five conference games, Robinson is averaging 18 points and 12.6 boards.

Robinson is nearly unstoppable on the glass, and has both a solid face-up game and quality post moves, making him a tough match-up for centers and and forwards of all types. The junior also can handle the ball pretty well, giving Kansas an additional player who can push the tempo and try to establish the break after turnovers and missed shots.

The only returning starter from last year’s team is senior Tyshawn Taylor (No. 10), who has had an up-and-down career in Lawrence. After a win over Kansas State, Coach Self said of his point guard, “He makes plays you can’t coach. And then he makes plays where it looks like he’s never been coached.”

That polarity has extended beyond the court, where Taylor has fought members of the football team, said he wanted to transfer on Facebook, and called out his critics on Twitter. Add all of those issues to the fact that sometimes Tyshawn struggles with turnovers, and there are times where the ever-obsessive Jayhawk Nation has been quite critical of their senior leader.

Last season, Taylor put up double-digit scoring lines in sixteen games, including a masterful 20-point, five-assist effort that powered Kansas to revenge and a Big 12 tournament title against Texas. This year, he’s turned those flashes of brilliance into a consistent scoring threat, chipping in 16.2 points per game. Taylor can slice through the defense with the dribble, drills nearly 45% of his long-range attempts, and always seems to come up with big buckets in the clutch.

Joining Taylor in the backcourt is Elijah Johnson (No. 15), who is also an adept ballhandler that can handle point duties. A highly-regarded recruit out of Las Vegas, Johnson struggled to find consistent playing time on an incredibly-loaded Kansas roster during his first two seasons. Now an everyday starter, he’s averaging nearly 10 points a game and provides excellent perimeter defense. While Johnson has only made 30% of his threes, he can heat up in a hurry, as evidenced by his 4-of-8 and 5-of-7 performances from long range against UCLA and Ohio State.

The third guard for Coach Self is Travis Releford (No. 24) a redshirt junior who is yet another slashing threat in the backcourt. At 6’5″, he’s also a quality rebounder at the guard position, snagging more than four boards per game to go with his 10 points. Like Johnson, Releford also plays solid defense on the perimeter, using his height and length to frustrate other guards and post a steal percentage of 2.7%.

In the middle, 7-footer Jeff Withey (No. 5) is the epitome of a role player. Playing only about 22 minutes per game, he still leads the Big 12 with more than three blocks per game and is a big part of Kansas’ dominance in the paint. Even when he’s not blocking shots, his simple presence in the lane can affect opposing offenses, and his 12.2% offensive rebounding percentage is tops on the team. One struggle for Withey this season has been foul trouble, but thanks to his limited minutes, he rarely actually fouls out of the game.

The sixth man for Kansas is Connor Teahan (No. 2), who makes a living on the perimeter. Although he is not the team’s best three-point shooter, he still takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc, and has knocked down 37.5% of them so far this year. Texas has to stay close to the senior guard and make him drive the basketball. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks are great at moving the ball quickly and crisply, so sticking in Teahan’s shirt will be a difficult task.

Kansas also uses a trio of reserves sparingly, getting a combined 26 minutes out of Kevin Young (No. 40), Justin Wesley (No. 4), and Naadir Tharpe (No. 1) in conference play. Young is an athletic forward who has rebounded very well after transferring from Loyola Marymount. Wesley is also a transfer forward, coming to Lawrence by way of Lamar. The younger brother of former Jayhawk Keith Langford, he’s a stout 6’8″, 220 pounds and excels at shot blocking. Tharpe will be the point guard of the future for KU and is extremely quick with the ball. For now, he is simply used to spell Taylor and Johnson for a few minutes each game.

Keys to the game

1) Attack Robinson – There isn’t as much depth on this Jayhawk roster as in years past, and there’s certainly nobody on the bench who can match the skill level of Thomas Robinson. Texas benefited from getting K-State’s Jamar Samuels in foul trouble on Wednesday night, and they would see huge returns from doing the same against T-Rob this afternoon. The caveat here is that Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown must be smart about this approach, as both Robinson and Withey can easily block ill-advised shots.

2) Rattle Taylor – While Tyshawn has been a scoring machine as of late, he still has issues controlling the ball. When he is clicking and can dissect a defense, Kansas is practically unstoppable. The Longhorns must force Taylor into mistakes and keep him from feeling comfortable. If not, he and Robinson will likely put up video game numbers en route to an impressive road win.

3) Make it count behind the arc – Texas isn’t one of the best in the country when it comes to three-pointers, but against a stout interior D from Kansas, the Horns will have to knock down some outside shots. The Longhorns were a hot 9-of-16 from long range against Missouri last Saturday, but followed that up with an inefficient 7-of-22 against K-State on Wednesday. Brown was a big part of those long-range struggles against the Wildcats, so he and the Longhorns not only need to knock down their threes, but also make sure that they aren’t forcing up bad looks.

4) Build momentum early – The Frank Erwin Center has been more like a library the last two seasons, but the building has certainly been home to some electric atmospheres in the past, particularly when Kansas was in the house. Texas fans are the type to only cheer when given a reason to do so, which means the Horns need to come out hot if they want to get the full advantage of home court. Fall behind early — which is always a big danger against Kansas — and the apathetic Texas fanbase will likely start chatting about football recruiting news.

The Texas Longhorns continue their brief road trip with yet another test, taking on a talented Kansas State team at the always-dangerous Bramlage Coliseum. This is just one more tough match-up for the Longhorns in the midst of a brutal six-game stretch that includes four games against teams currently ranked in the Top 10.

The Wildcats are much better than their conference record would indicate, as they’ve been forced to take on the league’s three best teams — Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri — in their first four games. Kansas State managed to defend their home court against the Tigers, but stumbled on the road against Oklahoma on Saturday.

Coach Frank Martin was so mad with his team prior to the loss against the Sooners that he made five players run stairs for more than two hours rather than practice. One can only imagine what the team has been put through in the three days since that loss, so you can be sure they will be angry and hungry for a win when they hit the court tonight against Texas.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are not a good shooting team, but still manage to be have one of the most efficient offenses in the country thanks to strong work on the glass and an ability to get to the line. High offensive rebounding percentages and free-throw rates are a trademark of Martin’s teams, and this year’s edition is no exception. The Wildcats are currently 5th-best in the land when it comes to reclaiming their misses, grabbing more than 42% of their opportunities. They also shoot nearly one free throw for every two field goal attempts, a free-throw rate that is 17th-best in Division I.

That success carries over to the defensive side of the ball, where Kansas State has one of the 20 best defensive efficiency marks in Division I, holding opponents to just 0.894 points per possession. Fortunately for the Longhorns, that defensive intensity has let up against the better opponents of the Big 12, as K-State’s conference opponents have scored nearly 1.05 points per possession. It was the suddenly spotty Wildcat defense that had Coach Martin angry enough to dole out that marathon stair session as punishment, so you’d have to think the team made some adjustments leading up to this game.

On paper, the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams match up in an interesting way. The Longhorns reclaim their missed shots with regularity, while K-State doesn’t close out defensive possessions. On the other end of the court, UT struggles to get defensive boards, while K-State is dominant on the offensive glass. With both teams so strong on the offensive boards, this could come down to who makes the most of their second chances.

Both teams also send their opponents to the line quite a bit, with their defensive free-throw rates ranking in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops. Just like the rebounding numbers, that weakness matches up poorly with the opposition’s strength, as both teams also get to the line quite often. While that’s a good sign for a Texas team that typically needs to manufacture points, it also means that on defense the Horns will likely be called for quite a few fouls, something that is problematic with such a short bench.

Meet the Wildcats

Kansas State has a rotation of eight players this season, and although Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly have exhausted their eligibility, there are still quite a few familiar faces. The Wildcats return three starters from last year’s team, where they were essentially role players supporting the team’s bearded star. This season, the focus is on a pair of those returning starters who have helped K-State exceed all preseason expectations.

The first of those two veterans is Rodney McGruder (No. 22), who Texas fans will remember all-too-well from his three-point barrage in Austin last season. McGruder was not only an excellent long-range shooter for K-State last year, but also actually led the team in rebounds. This season, he’s claimed the team lead in points, as he’s taken over the role of penetrating scorer from Pullen.

As a result of his new role, McGruder is taking far less threes this season and has seen his numbers drop off. This year, he’s only attempting about a third of his shots from behind the arc, and only connecting on 34.4% of them. Instead, the junior is putting the ball on the floor and attacking the paint, where he loves to elevate and put up soft floaters. He has excellent body control to avoid the charge, so there’s little that defenders can do when McGruder pulls up besides stand tall and hope that his touch is off.

Jamar Samuels (No. 32) is another of the returning starters for K-State, and like McGruder, his role with the team has changed. With Kelly on the roster last year, Samuels was able to use his face-up game with more regularity. As a guy who can blow by other big men yet also body up with them in the post, he offers excellent flexibility on the offensive end.

Without Kelly on the team, Samuels has had to take on more of the physical role, and as a result he’s now manufacturing a ton of his points. He’s tops on the team with nearly seven boards per game, and his hard work on the offensive glass leads to a ton of free throws. Jamar’s free-throw rate is just under 90%, meaning he nearly takes one free throw for every field goal attempt.

The third returning starter is guard Will Spradling (No. 55), and as you can probably guess, his role has changed as well. Used more as an off-guard last season, this year he’s taking over the point guard duties. The son of a coach, he’s proven to be an adept facilitator, leading the team in assists while still finding time to show off his deadly three-point shot. Spradling also moves really well without the ball, so Texas cannot afford to lose him after he passes it off.

Joining Spradling in the backcourt is Martavious Irving (No. 3), a good defender who pressures the ball and can create points with his D. Offensively, he’s not much of a threat, but is usually good for a nice feed or two through traffic. At the moment, it appears he’s in Martin’s doghouse, as he was limited to just 15 minutes against Oklahoma. The coach wouldn’t say which five players he put through the stair workout, but did say that the box score could shed some light on the mystery.

Another starter who was probably a part of the punished quintet is 7-footer Jordan Henriquez (No. 21). He played just eight minutes against the Sooners, but will see much more playing time tonight if Coach Martin has finished making a point. Henriquez is an excellent post defender with great shot-blocking skills, and has even started developing a face-up game on the offensive end. He’s shown the ability to knock down short and mid-range jumpers, but still lacks the consistency and confidence to make it a big part of his game.

The other big man for the Wildcats is freshman Thomas Gipson (No. 42), from Cedar Hill, Texas. At 6’7″, 275 pounds, Gipson looks nothing like an 18-year old, and that strong body has allowed him to immediately make an impact at the college level. The freshman doesn’t have much offensive game outside of the paint, but he has a nice jump hook and is a beast on the boards.

Sixth man Shane Southwell (No. 1) is used mostly for his rebounding and defensive work, but he’s also an excellent passer. The 6’6″ guard from Harlem has the vision of a point guard, and often sets up the big men with great feeds from the perimeter. He can also put the ball on the floor and drive from the wings, but prefers to get looks for his teammates.

The other Wildcat seeing significant minutes off the bench is tiny guard Angel Rodriguez (No. 13), yet another talented Miami product brought to the Little Apple thanks to Martin’s past as a high school coach in the Magic City. Rodriguez is another active perimeter defender and penetrates the lane well despite not having blazing speed. He sat the entire Oklahoma game as a result of poor play against Baylor and a lack of effort in practice, so his role tonight could be limited.

With Coach Martin using the bench as a teaching tool, some of the lesser-used Wildcats have seen a recent spike in minutes. Guard Jeremy Jones (No. 24) had a strong first half against OU with 12 points, but hurt his ankle and hardly played in the second. Freshman wing Nino Williams (No. 11) could also see more playing time tonight, and could create match-up problems with his ability to attack off the dribble.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chance points – Kansas State often needs second and third chances to make their offensive trips count, so the Longhorns will have to work hard to keep the Wildcats off the glass. K-State clearly has the advantage inside, so there’s no doubt that they will still get their share of offensive rebounds. Texas will just have to try to limit those boards, and also prevent K-State from getting easy putbacks when they do reclaim their misses.

2) Avoid foul trouble – The physical Kansas State frontline is a match-up nightmare for Texas, and their ability to draw fouls and get to the line could really expose the thin Texas frontcourt. The Longhorns were decimated inside by Ricardo Ratliffe on Saturday when Clint Chapman was on the bench with foul trouble, so he’ll have to avoid the whistles tonight. Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes will have to do the same, as Texas needs all the rebounding help it can get.

3) Be aggressive with the ball – While Kansas State gets to the line quite often, they also frequently send their opponents there. The Longhorn guards and wings need to be aggressive with the basketball and attack the defense. The Wildcats have been uncharacteristically weak with their perimeter defense of late, so the opportunity is there. Texas finally has a good free-throw shooting team this season, so the Horns can overcome some of their offensive woes by earning their points the hard way.

The Longhorns embark on the toughest portion of their schedule this afternoon, taking on a top-ten Mizzou squad that was still undefeated at this time last week. In the ensuing five games, Texas will also face Baylor and Kansas State on the road, while hosting Kansas, Iowa State, and this same Missouri team. Every single game is going to be tough to win, which is terrible news in a season where the Horns need every conference win they can get to simply make the NCAA tournament.

The one positive in all of this is that of the three tough road games, this is the one Texas has the best chance in. Against this murderer’s row, that’s not saying a whole lot, but it should be some comfort to Longhorn fans that amongst the league’s elite teams, these Tigers are the best match-up for Texas. The Horns are weakest in the frontcourt, which just so happens to be where the Tigers are thin, as well.

By the numbers

Although Mizzou’s frontcourt leaves a lot to be desired, they still have the best two-point field-goal percentage in the country, knocking down 57.6% of their shots from inside the arc. That’s a result of constantly attacking the paint, whether on the dribble or with smart, hard cuts that lead to easy layups. All told, Mizzou’s offensive efficiency is second in the nation, with the Tigers putting in 1.211 points per possession.

Behind the arc, Missouri is just as dangerous. The Tigers have made nearly 40% of their long-range attempts, led by seniors Kim English (No. 24) and Marcus Denmon (No. 12), who are shooting 53% and 48.7% behind the arc, respectively. The Tigers are also loaded with quick guards in the backcourt, so opposing teams have to decide whether they’d rather give up the blow-by when they are pressuring the perimeter or give up a wide-open three when sagging to cut off penetration. As the numbers show, there’s simply no good choice.

With former coach Mike Anderson now in Fayetteville, the Tigers no longer employ relentless full-court pressure, but they still play nasty defense. Under former Texas assistant Frank Haith, this year’s Missouri team just waits to turn up the pressure until after opponents have crossed half-court. Their talented crop of guards can all defend well on the perimeter, and they still force turnovers on more than 23% of possessions despite abandoning the “Fastest 40 Minutes of Basketball” approach. The high-octane offense and tenacious D still add up to a quick tempo, however, but the Tigers “only” average 69 possessions per game, currently the 82nd-fastest pace in Division I.

It’s also worth noting that the Tigers play good D without fouling. Their defensive free-throw rate is 15th-best in D-I at the moment, as opponents shoot just a little more than one free throw for every four field goal attempts. That discipline on the defensive end is huge, as Missouri is now down to just a seven-man rotation and cannot afford to have any players in foul trouble.

Meet the Tigers

That seven-man Missouri rotation was supposed to be nine deep, but a devastating injury and ill-timed transfer have dramatically changed the make-up of the Tiger roster. Senior forward Laurence Bowers tore his ACL on October 3rd, just a little more than a month before the Tigers tipped off the season, leaving Mizzou with only three legitimate options in the frontcourt. Then, just before conference play began, Toronto product Kadeem Green announced his intentions to transfer somewhere closer to home.

The Bowers injury and Green transfer left Ricardo Ratliffe (No. 10) as the sole big man in the starting five. At just 6’8″, Ratliffe is severely undersized as the primary post option against most Big 12 teams, but he knows how to establish good post position before the entry pass and makes quick, confident moves once he gets the ball. He’s smooth on his spin move and is solid with the jump hook, so even though Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene have a few inches on Ratliffe, they’ll have to push him off the block and deny those deep entry passes.

The Tigers have only one other big man in Steve Moore (No. 32), who comes off the bench to average just under 17 minutes per game. Moore is nowhere near the offensive threat of Ratliffe, but is a stout 6’9″ guy that provides some rebounding help and defensive presence in the paint.

With the lack of frontcourt options, the Tigers have had to rely on their strength in the backcourt. Coach Haith has elected to go with a four-guard look, and so far it has worked to near-perfection. Senior Marcus Denmon (No. 12) is the Big 12′s leading retuning scorer, and he’s near the top of the charts again this season with his 17.9 points per game. He’s incredibly quick with the basketball and can slice right through the defense to get to the rack. As mentioned earlier, he’s also a very dangerous three-point shooter, so it’s difficult to keep Denmon in check for very long.

The man facilitating the offense is sophomore guard Phil (Flip) Pressey (No. 1), who has made an amazing leap from his freshman year. The younger of two Presseys on the team, Phil struggled with turnovers during his first collegiate season, but has turned into a highly efficient point guard this year. He’s currently posting a 2.7 assist-to-turnover ratio, but is averaging 5.5 assists per game over his last ten.

Perhaps the area of greatest improvement for Flip this season is his new-found ability to adjust his speed as he reads the defense. Instead of flying recklessly into a waiting defense, he now hesitates, watches the play develop, and finds the cracks or passing lanes. If a team is slow getting back, he finds another gear and will take it coast to coast. Although this current Missouri roster is loaded with seniors, the future is still bright with Pressey running the point for two more years.

Phil’s older brother, Matt Pressey (No. 3) is possibly the best perimeter defender on the team, which is really saying something with this group of guards. He’s also no slouch on the offensive end, chipping in nearly nine points a game while making a third of his attempts from behind the arc.

Senior Kim English (No. 24) rounds out the starting five, where he’s playing what amounts to the power forward role despite having the body of a small forward. As previously mentioned, he’s been practically unconscious from outside so far this season, drilling 53% of his threes. English is also able to put the ball on the floor and slash from the wings to create looks for himself. His prowess from behind the arc plus his ability to generate good looks have the senior ranked second in the nation with an insane 68.7% effective field goal percentage.

Off the bench, Missouri’s sixth man is junior Michael Dixon (No. 11), who is another excellent perimeter defender for the Tigers. Despite seeing just 26 minutes per game off the bench, he’s still second on the team with 27 steals and he converts those turnovers into fast-break points. Once the starting point guard, Dixon has adjusted well to his new role as sixth man, which is a big reason for Missouri’s success so far. The best teams have guys who understand their roles, and the maturity with which Dixon has handled himself after losing the starting job to Pressey is a boost to the team’s performance and chemistry.

Keys to the game

1) Play sound team defense – The Tigers make great cuts without the basketball and have a roster filled with excellent ballhandlers who can attack the paint off the dribble. Texas will constantly be challenged on the defensive end, and will undoubtedly be plays where someone loses their man or gives up penetration. The key is for the Horns to play well as a defensive unit and be aware enough to provide timely help. Missouri can move the ball very well, but forcing them to work the ball around even more on busted assignments will keep things from getting out of hand.

2) Weather the storm – Missouri can score in bunches, and a full Mizzou Arena is an absolute powderkeg. With the planned “blackout” for today’s game, you can tell that fans are still treating this as a big game despite it being a down year for Texas. When the Tigers get on one of their inevitable runs, the roof is likely to blow right off the building. These young Longhorns have yet to produce a win under hostile conditions — sorry, an 80% empty L.A. Sports Arena doesn’t count — so they must show poise when things get tough this afternoon.

3) Clean the glass – Missouri doesn’t miss often, but the Longhorns can’t afford to give them extra chances when they do. Fortunately, this is one of the rare times this season that Texas has the edge in the frontcourt. The Longhorns must take advantage of this and close out good defensive possessions by securing the boards, something they had difficulty doing against A&M even when the ball was right in their hands. On the other end of the court, if Clint Chapman, Jonathan Holmes, or Jaylen Bond can get some putbacks, it will only make things easier against a tough Tiger D.

4) Avoid foul trouble – Not only is this important because the Longhorn roster lacks depth, but avoiding fouls also keeps the Tigers off the free-throw line, where they are practically automatic. Dixon has made 91% of his attempts, while Denmon is just a shade under 93% from the charity stripe. As a team, the Tigers are one of the 10 best in the country when it comes to converting the freebies, sinking almost 77% at the line.

The past two summers have been a blur of rumors and news reports surrounding the massive wave of realignment hitting conferences from coast to coast. Two years ago, the Big 12 was on the verge of collapse after Colorado and Nebraska departed and four other league members weighed an exodus to what was then the Pac-10. This summer and fall, the league saw more changes with the SEC’s addition of Texas A&M and Missouri and the Big 12′s own inclusion of West Virginia and TCU. Elsewhere, the Big East expanded from one ocean to the other, while losing two of its basketball powerhouses to the ACC.

The unfortunate byproduct of this Conferencegeddon is the loss of historic rivalries. It appears all but certain that the Border War between Kansas and Missouri is now confined to the history books, while the long-standing series between Texas A&M and Texas is dead for the foreseeable future. Tonight marks the last time that the state’s two flagship schools will meet on the hardwood of the Frank Erwin Center for quite some time.

Beyond the historical implications, this game is huge for both teams. When you look beyond the bragging rights, it becomes apparent that both squads have to face this game as a “must win.” The Aggies are struggling, dropping their first two conference games after being picked by coaches to win the league title in the preseason. The offense is scuttling and the season is in danger of spinning down the drain if the Aggies cannot right the ship tonight.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, follow tonight’s game with a brutal six-game stretch that includes road trips to Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor and home games against Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa State. The Bears, Tigers, and Jayhawks are three of the league’s best teams, if not its three best. Iowa State, meanwhile, surprised Texas in Ames and shellacked the Aggies in College Station. Even with solid performances, there is a very real possibility that the Longhorns could could still just get one or two wins during that stretch. If they can’t secure a win against A&M tonight before heading into that buzzsaw, it could be a very long conference season.

By the numbers

Texas A&M is having a lot of difficulty putting the ball into the basket, especially now that conference play has begun. The Aggies are in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring just 0.955 points per possession. In their two conference losses to Baylor and Iowa State, the offense is even worse, putting in just 0.773 points each time down the court.

A big part of this problem is the team’s reliance on long-range jumpers, with many of them coming from the “danger zone” just inside the arc. Those shots from 17 to 20 feet are nearly as tough as three-pointers, yet offer just the same amount of points as a layup. In addition to being an inefficient strategic choice, the reliance on long jumpers also produces less trips to the line. As a result, Texas A&M has one of the twenty worst free-throw rates in the country, taking just over one free throw for every four field goal attempts.

What keeps A&M in games is their stifling defense. The team’s adjusted defensive efficiency numbers are 35th best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy, built upon the strength of great team defense and rebounding. The Aggies have the perimeter absolutely locked down, with opponents making just 26.4% of their attempts, the 8th-best defensive mark in Division I. When opponents miss, the Aggies limit them to reclaiming just 27.7% of their misses, making them one of the 30 best defensive rebounding teams in the land.

Meet the Aggies

Coach Billy Kennedy has seen his bench shrink over the last few weeks, as big man Kourtney Roberson (No. 32) has been sidelined by an ankle injury, and freshman guard Jamal Branch elected to transfer to St. John’s. That leaves the Aggies with a core rotation of eight players, although Kennedy will likely use senior transfer Zach Kinsley (No. 23) and freshman Daniel Alexander (No. 20) for at least a few minutes each.

The Aggies are led by senior Dash Harris (No. 5), a true point guard. Harris doesn’t have a good jump shot and doesn’t often attack the rim, but he brings lockdown defense to the perimeter and facilitates the offense in the half-court sets. When Dash does drive the lane, he prefers to dish it to open teammates as the defense collapses, as evidenced by his season averages of 4.2 assists and 5.4 points per game.

Joining him in the backcourt is Elston Turner (No. 31), a Houston native who transferred to A&M from Washington. Turner brings the team its only true long-range threat, and he leads the Aggies with a 39.7% mark from behind the arc. Elston can also create by putting the ball on the floor, and has been the team’s most consistent scorer in what has been an anemic offensive year. Turner averages 13.3 points per game and is one of the team’s only good free throw shooters, knocking down more than 80% of his attempts.

Junior Khris Middleton (No. 22) is still working his way back from an early-season knee injury, so it’s been tough for him to match the numbers of his breakout sophomore season. Still, he’s managed to become the team’s second-leading scorer with 12.6 points per game. When Middleton slashes from the wings, he’s incredibly tough to defend. Unfortunately, his jumper is accurate from all over the floor, so teams can’t simply sag off to take away the drive. At 6’7″, he also provides solid rebounding from the wings, and is actually second on the team with five boards per game.

Inside, senior David Loubeau (No. 10) has a solid face-up game with a good jump shot that he can pop at a moment’s notice. The 6’8″ forward uses the threat of that jumper to stretch out the floor a bit, but still chips in nearly five rebounds a night. Alexis Wangmene has had issues defending face-up forwards, while Clint Chapman has been rather inconsistent against all types of opponents. This could turn out to be one of the key match-ups in the game.

Loubeau’s frontcourt sidekick is Ray Turner (No. 35) a 6’9″ junior from Houston. He’s really smooth with the ball for a big guy, so don’t be surprised when he shows off some nice, quick spin moves from the block. Turner also is the team’s best rebounder, ripping down 6.6 boards per contest, and is third on the team with 11.4 points per game. Just as with Loubeau, how the Horns handle Turner inside will have a big impact on this game.

Freshman Jordan Green (No. 13) is getting some extra playing time with Branch’s departure at midseason, and he’s now averaging more than 18 minutes per game. At 6’4″, Green is a freakish athlete with a great vertical, but it’s taken some time for him to adjust to playing at the college level. His shot was really ugly for the first few weeks of the season, while he’s had a consistent issue with hanging on tho the ball. His 27.3% turnover rate is by far the worst of the core rotation.

Junior wingman Naji Hibbert (No. 2) is having a tough time making shots this year, which is bad news for a guy who isn’t known as a penetrator. Hibbert has taken more than a third of his shots from behind the arc, but is shooting an abysmal 13.3% from long range. The Longhorns can definitely shade off of Hibbert when he’s on the court, perhaps making it a little easier to limit the Aggies inside.

The Aggies also have a solid center on the bench in Keith Davis (No. 4). He has yet to make a major offensive impact in his first year and a half at A&M, but has been a rebounding machine so far this season. Despite playing less than 16 minutes per game, Davis is averaging more than four boards per game, posting an incredible 20.1% mark on the defensive glass. If Davis had played just five more minutes so far this season, his defensive rebounding percentage would rank him among the top 150 players in the country.

Keys to the game

1) Crash the glass – The Aggie offense has been particularly bad in recent weeks, but the only thing keeping them from being downright abysmal has been an ability to earn second-chance points. Texas A&M reclaims nearly 35% of their missed shots, while the Longhorns have been near the bottom when it comes to defensive rebounding. When a team is struggling on offense, often a few easy buckets is all it takes to build some confidence. The Longhorns cannot afford to give A&M unchallenged putbacks, and they must limit second-chance points.

2) Attack with the dribble – If J’Covan Brown is back to full speed in this game, it will be even easier for the Longhorns to penetrate against the Aggies. If not, Myck Kabongo, Sterling Gibbs, and Sheldon McClellan will have to shoulder the load. Texas A&M has played sound defense all season, but they have shown lapses when faced with quick, driving guards. Iowa State’s Scott Christopherson repeatedly found his way to the rim on Saturday, so Texas fans will have to hope their guards can do the same tonight.

3) Avoid foul trouble – The Aggies have an advantage in the frontcourt tonight, one that will only be strengthened if the thin Longhorn roster is constrained by foul difficulties. Chapman, Wangmene, Jonathan Holmes, and Jaylen Bond are going to have their hands full on defense tonight, so they cannot afford to give up cheap fouls. Bond wasted a few of his personals on the offensive end in the loss to Iowa State, so he and the other Longhorn forwards must be more careful tonight.

The NCAA tournament hopes of the Texas Longhorns took a hit on Wednesday night, as the young team let the opportunity for a precious road win slip away in Ames, Iowa. Predicted by many national pundits to be a bubble team, the Longhorns will need every win that they can get in Big 12 play, making the loss to Iowa State even more damaging. This evening, the team is back in action against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, another team that provides a ripe target for one of those important league victories.

By the numbers

Oklahoma State has played a challenging non-conference slate, but hasn’t fared well against the tougher teams on the schedule. The Cowboys are just 1-6 against opponents ranked in the Top 100 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Of their other seven wins this year, one came against Langston University of the NAIA, and the remainder came against teams with an average KenPom ranking of 213.

The Cowboys haven’t been particularly efficient on offense, with their adjusted mark of 1.018 points per possession checking in just above the national median. What has kept Oklahoma State competitive is a solid defense, as opponents are scoring just 0.925 points per possession against the Pokes.

It should be noted that Oklahoma State’s solid defensive numbers are thanks in large part to dominating the worst teams on their schedule. In their seven wins, the Cowboys are limiting opponents to just 0.851 points per possession. In those six losses against Top 100 competition, their defense concedes 1.072 PPP. With the Texas offense checking in near the top of the efficiency rankings, it’s likely that they will put a performance similar to Oklahoma State’s other quality opponents.

With the ball, Oklahoma State is having a tougher time. As mentioned above, their overall efficiency numbers aren’t too far above the national median. Their shooting percentage and offensive rebounding numbers both put them in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, but their lack of turnovers keeps the offense from really struggling. The Pokes have an eFG of just 45.7%, and reclaim only 27.1% of their rebounds. For a Texas team that has had issues defending the perimeter and cleaning the defensive glass, these are great numbers to see on the scouting report.

Meet the Cowboys

There was promise and hope in Stillwater during the offseason, as the arrival of highly-touted freshman Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) made it appear that the Pokes could be a dark-horse contender in a wide-open Big 12. Instead, the team has been ravaged by injuries and departures, leaving head coach Travis Ford with a short, inexperienced bench.

In the last few weeks, both Reger Dowell and Fred Gulley announced their intentions to transfer, leaving Coach Ford without a single member of his 2009 recruiting class. Earlier this week, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports wrote an excellent breakdown of Ford’s terrible track record of losing recruits, both at Oklahoma State and UMass.

In addition to all of the departures, Ford was also dealt a blow when Jean-Paul Olukemi tore his ACL in the final non-conference game against Virginia Tech. Not surprisingly, that severe of an injury has ended his season. The Pokes are also without nasty big man Darrell Williams, who has remained on the roster since rape charges were filed against him last season. His status with the team won’t be reviewed until the completion of his trial, which was originally scheduled to begin on Monday, but has been pushed back until May.

All told, that leaves the Cowboys with just an eight-man rotation, including five freshmen. Senior Keiton Page (No. 12) is the most experienced player left on the roster, and his recent hot streak has him leading the team with 14.5 points per game. He’s always been known as a three-point threat, but has had to develop more of a driving game during these last two seasons thanks to the team’s point guard issues. Without a true facilitator, Page could no longer camp out on the perimeter and play as simply a spot-up shooter.

Joining Page in the backcourt is redshirt freshman Brian Williams (No. 4). With Gulley and Dowell putting Stillwater in the rearview mirror, Williams earned his first career start against Texas Tech on Wednesday night. He struggled from the floor in his 26 minutes of action, knocking down just one of his six attempts.

On the wing, freshman Nash was expected to be a savior at Gallagher-Iba, but has yet to live up to expectations so far. At 6’7″, 230 pounds, Nash has the body to compete down low, but has the handles and jumper to stretch the floor and play outside. He’s second on the team with 12.4 points per game, but he’ll have to have a big performance tonight if Oklahoma State hopes to pull off the road win.

In the middle, junior transfer Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the second oldest player on the team. A four-star recruit out of Chattanooga, he originally committed to play for the Volunteers, but never played a single minute in Knoxville. He transferred to play junior college ball at Chattanooga State before ending up in Stillwater as the team’s center.

Jurick averages just over 18 minutes per game, but is still tops on the team with an average of six rebounds. The 6’11″ big man is also a big part of the team’s defensive success, as his block percentage of 13.3% is 11th-best in the nation.

The team’s fifth starter will likely be Michael Cobbins (No. 20), a 6’8″ redshirt freshman who also is a shot-blocking threat. He was a highly-regarded recruit in high school, but a nasty knee injury ruined his senior year and necessitated last season’s redshirt.

Coming off the bench, freshman point guard Cezar Guerrero (No. 1)is fifth on the team in scoring with 7.5 points per game. Besides Page, he’s the team’s biggest threat from long range, where he’s launched nearly half of his attempts this year. He’s also incredibly quick with the ball, but has played a bit out of control so far this season. Thanks to the backcourt attrition, Guerrero will have to grow up quickly in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Markel Brown (No. 22) has started 11 of the team’s 14 games, but an injury forced him to be the sixth man in Wednesday’s win over Texas Tech. Brown, a former high school state champion in Louisiana, provides Oklahoma State with sound perimeter defense and valuable rebounding from the wings. With the team reeling and full of freshmen, the sophomore will have to step up as a leader down the stretch.

The only other Cowboy at Coach Ford’s disposal is Marek Souček, a Czech 7-footer who had made only three appearances for a total of six minutes during the team’s first 13 games. With Olukemi sidelined for the year, Souček was called upon for 15 minutes in the win over Tech, and responded well. As expected, he’s a true Euro-style big who is more comfortable on the perimeter and midrange than banging against big bodies in the paint.

Keys to the game

1) Establish the inside presence – With only Jurick and Souček providing size inside, the Longhorns need to get Clint Chapman started early, as they did against Iowa State. Establishing that inside presence also includes dominating the glass, something that the Longhorns should be able to do against a poor-rebounding Cowboy team. Even if J’Covan Brown is unable to play or is ineffective thanks to his injury, the Longhorns should be fine if they can play well inside.

2) Control the basketball – In three of the team’s last four games, the Longhorns have coughed it up on more than 22% of their possessions. Oklahoma State has not forced an inordinate number of turnovers this year, but Texas cannot afford to make unforced errors that give the Cowboys extra possessions.

3) Chase Page off the perimeter – Page is averaging 23.7 points over his last three games, including a solid 3-of-5 performance behind the arc against Tech on Wednesday night. The senior guard is always dangerous spotting up outside, so the Longhorns must make him put the ball on the floor. Page is much more effective on the quick catch-and-shoot, and tends to struggle when having to create his own shots.

For Michele Bachmann, last night’s Iowa caucus was the end of the road for her 2012 presidential campaign. On the other end of the spectrum, frontrunners Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul didn’t lock up November’s general election, but kept themselves alive by proving contenders to 120,000 farmers in America’s heartland.

That seemingly random intro leads us to this awkward segue, where we make the leap that for the Texas Longhorns, tonight’s conference opener at Iowa State provides a test similar to the Iowa caucus. A game that is seemingly inconsequential on paper — much like the opinions of 120,000 people in a country of 300-million — could prove huge in Texas’ pursuit of an NCAA bid. While a ticket to March Madness pales in comparison to a national party’s ticket to the general election, it’s clear that how Texas performs tonight will set the stage for conference play.

The Longhorns finished non-conference with a solid 10-3 mark, but lack any signature wins to beef up their NCAA résumé. The victory over Temple came when the Owls were lacking two star players, while a road win at UCLA is tarnished by the pathetic season the Bruins are stumbling through. In a very deep and balanced Big 12, the Longhorns will be tested every single night, and have to take the wins wherever they can get them. While the Cyclones are a scary (but inconsistent) team and Hilton Coliseum is not an easy venue to steal a win in, tonight’s game approaches must-win territory when you consider that the Longhorns have to play two games each against Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri.

By the numbers

Iowa State is near the top of the charts when it comes to three-pointers, and that’s clearly by design. Coach Fred Hoiberg typically has four players spread out on the perimeter, and often even moves big man Royce White (No. 30) to the top of the key for ball screens and iso plays. As a result, the Cyclones take nearly 43% of their shots from behind the arc, the 17th-highest percentage in the nation.

Fortunately, Iowa State is very streaky from behind the arc. On the year, they are making 37.8% from long range, which puts them in the Top 60 nationally. But when you break those numbers down, it’s clear that the Cyclones are a perfect example of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché. In the team’s three losses — to Drake, Northern Iowa, and Michigan — they made just 16-of-64 (25%) from beyond the arc. In their ten wins, they sank 41.3% of their attempts, averaging just under 10 makes per victory.

The Cyclones also earn a fair share of points at the line, with more than 17 per game coming from free throws. Combining all of those freebies with the three-pointers means that just 42.3% of Iowa State’s points come from inside the arc. While that may seem like a large percentage, there are only 11 teams in the country who score less points from two-point range.

As would be expected, the bulk of the team’s free throws come from White getting fouled down low. Beyond that, there are some surprising numbers coming from guard Bubu Palo (No. 1), a former walk-on from Ames who has finally earned a scholarship for the spring semester. Palo draws an average of seven fouls per 40 minutes, and has an improbably high free-throw rate of 192.9%, meaning he shoots almost twice as many free throws as field goals.

Meet the Cyclones

As you could likely guess by this point, as Royce White goes, so go the Cyclones. At 6’8″, 270 pounds, he’s a remarkably big guy who was voted Big 12 Newcomer of the Year despite not playing a competitive game of basketball in over 900 days. White won a state title as a high schooler in Minnesota and elected to play close to home for Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers. Unfortunately, he never played a single game there, sidelined by a slew of off the court issues — shoplifting at the Mall of America, assault of a mall security guard, and the theft of a laptop from a Minnesota dorm room.

With a fresh start at Iowa State, White has been able to show off his impressive skillset. Despite the big body, he is a deft passer and pretty good ball handler, giving Coach Hoiberg more flexibility on the offensive end. With that unusual blend of talents, White is tops on the team in points (13.1 per game), rebounds (8.9), and assists (3.9). He hardly played in the team’s last game thanks to flu-like symptoms, but should be back to full strength after three days of rest.

With defenses paying so much attention to White, that opens things up on the perimeter for the Cyclone guards. Chris Babb, a 6’5″ transfer from Penn State, is knocking down 36.4% of his long range attempts. He’s primarily a perimeter player, with nearly 80% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. Babb’s length in the backcourt is also a great boost on defense, and provides the Cyclones with an edge on the glass. He also runs the floor really well, which is huge for a team that can sometimes get bogged down in its half-court sets.

While Babb is seemingly glued to the perimeter on the offensive end, the team’s true marksman is senior Scott Christopherson (No. 11), who has made more than 40% of his attempts so far this year. Shockingly, that number actually represents a decline for the senior, who boasts a career three-point mark of 43%. It’s also worth noting that even Christopherson fits with Iowa State’s Transfer U theme, as he played his freshman season at Marquette in his home state of Wisconsin.

The third guard in Iowa State’s starting five is former Michigan State Spartan Chris Allen (No. 4), who is the closest thing the team has to a starting point guard. Although White can bring the ball up the floor and is the top assist man, Allen is generally the one setting the table on offense. Like Babb and Christopherson, the senior is a threat from outside, where he’s made 35.6% of his attempts. Unlike the other two guards, though, Allen can create shots for himself off the dribble, and does a good job attacking the paint on the bounce to get the defense moving.

Rounding out the starting lineup is Canadian product Melvin Ejim (No. 3), who doesn’t typically put up big numbers, but provides a solid rebounding and defensive presence. In the team’s most recent game, the sophomore was thrust into a bigger role thanks to White’s illness. He responded very well, posting an impressive 15-point, 15-rebound line that included a pair of triples.

The Cyclone bench isn’t used for a ton of minutes, but Coach Hoiberg does have instant offense available in the form of Tyrus McGee (No. 25). An All-American at the junior college level, McGee is an exciting player who can create shots without turning it over. Although he averages less than 20 minutes per game, McGee is fourth on the team in scoring with 9.8 points per game and has a turnover rate of just 10%.

The other primary reserve for Iowa State is Palo, who won the state title in Iowa as a point guard. On a team that lacks a quality floor general, that experience translates into playing time, and he sees the floor for 16 minutes per game. As previously mentioned, Palo does a great job attacking with the dribble and drawing fouls. Unfortunately, he’s not as good when it comes to converting those attempts, sinking just 64.8% of his tries at the charity stripe.

Iowa State also has a pair of frontcourt reserves each averaging about 12 minutes per game in Anthony Booker (No. 22) and freshman Percy Gibson (No. 24). Booker is yet another transfer for Coach Hoiberg, coming to Ames from Southern Illinois. He has a serviceable offensive skillset, but typically just produces on the glass and on the defensive end.

Gibson was the top-rated high school prospect out of Detroit and had originally committed to Dayton. But when Flyer coach Brian Gregory departed for Georgia Tech, assistant Cornell Mann made his way to Ames. Having been recruited by Mann, Gibson made the same switch and ended up at Iowa State. He’s yet to truly explode, but you can already see his skills. Gibson is a long, lean 6’9″, which makes him more mobile than a lot of other bigs, and that leads to some easy buckets and boards.

Keys to the game

1) Lock down the perimeter – Although White is the headlining star on this team, the numbers make it clear that Iowa State wins and loses games behind the arc. The Cyclones will certainly make some threes in this game, but if Texas can limit the damage, they will stand a good chance to win this one on the road.

2) Attack on offense – The Cyclone defense has looked porous at times, falling victim to both dribble penetration and off-ball movement. Teams are constantly abusing them with backdoor cuts, while driving guards often find their trip to the rim is rather easy. If J’Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo play aggressively, the Texas offense should be able to pile up some points.

3) Clean the defensive glass – It’s been a recurring theme in this section of the game previews, but it bears repeating. Texas must limit second-chance points by closing out defensive possessions with rebounds. On paper, Iowa State’s perimeter-oriented attack would seem to make this an easier task, but the ‘Clones are actually one of the 100 best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. The Longhorns have to neutralize White and Ejim on the glass to make sure the sharpshooting Cyclones don’t get extra looks.