For the 14th-consecutive season, the Texas Longhorns are in the NCAA tournament. If you regularly read this website, you’re already quite familiar with that nugget of knowledge, and you also know that Texas is one of just six programs that own an active streak of at least that length. Hidden behind that gaudy number, however, is a series of disappointments.

In those 13 previous visits to the NCAA tournament, the Longhorns have exceeded seed expectation just one time. In 2002, the 6th-seeded Longhorns were able to win two games in the NCAA tournament, knocking off 3-seed Mississippi State in front of a partisan crowd in Dallas to advance to the Sweet 16.

Of those other 12 trips to the Big Dance, the Longhorns simply matched seed expectation six times, and fell short of seed expectations in six others. Seed expectation doesn’t even tell the whole story, as nine of the 13 trips to the NCAAs under Barnes ended with the Longhorns losing to a lower seed. While the Selection Committee doesn’t always get the seeding right, the overall trend is troubling. Under Barnes, it appears that the Longhorns can’t handle the pressure of being the favorite.

Fortunately, this year there are no expectations. With one of the 20 youngest teams in America, the Longhorns had to fight all season long just to get into the tournament. As a result, Texas enters the Big Dance as the lower seed in its opening game, a first in Barnes’ 14 years with the program. The Longhorns proved that they are a dangerous team in near-upsets of elite squads like Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri, but never logged a big win that would make them truly scary. Could this talented, inexperienced team be the one that finally gets the monkey off its coach’s back?

If they are going to do so, the Longhorns will have to get through the 6th-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats. Known best for their brawl with intra-city rival Xavier, Mick Cronin’s team has quietly and steadily improved over the last two months. Last weekend, a big win over Syracuse in the Big East tournament semifinals captured the attention of the college basketball world and once again put the Bearcats firmly in the national spotlight. A loss to Louisville in an ugly championship game put an end to the movie-script tale, but it left the Bearcats with something to prove heading into the NCAAs.

By the numbers

When you look at these two teams on paper, the match-up becomes even more intriguing. Where Texas has a statistical strength, Cincinnati does as well. Where the Bearcat numbers are weaker, those of the Longhorns are, too. With two teams so perfectly aligned to neutralize the strengths of their opponents, this game will likely come down to who can actually execute when pushed out of their comfort zone.

Despite having an offense that often stalls out, the Longhorns have been able to manufacture points by earning free throws. Texas is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line, shooting more than two free throws for every five field goal attempts. On Friday, that could be much more difficult against a Bearcat D that hardly ever sends opponents to the charity stripe. Cincinnati allows just one free throw for every four field goal attempts, one of the ten best defensive FTR marks in the country.

On the other end of the court, Texas has consistently sent its opponents to the stripe all season long. The Horns have a defensive free-throw rate just shy of 42%. Fortunately, the Bearcats are one of the 25 worst teams in D-I hoops when it comes to grinding out points at the line. With a team that makes just 64.1% of their free throws, that is probably a net positive for Coach Cronin. It’s also reassuring for the Horns, who will likely give the Bearcats many more attempts than they are used to.

The one area where the teams’ strengths and weaknesses diverge is on the glass. Cincinnati and Texas are both fantastic on the offensive end, but horrible on the defensive boards. The Longhorns are ranked 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding according to Ken Pomeroy, snagging 38.4% of their missed shots. The Bearcats aren’t too far behind, grabbing 36% of their own misses. Defensively, both teams are ranked in the bottom 100 of Division I, with the Bearcats holding a slight edge. The winner of this game will likely be the one who finds greater success turning their numerous second chances into points.

Meet the Bearcats

Like Texas, Cincinnati has a very small rotation with a thin frontcourt. The team’s main presence in the paint is Yancy Gates (No. 34), who became a household name when he landed a sucker punch on the jaw of Xavier’s Kenny Frease. He was suspended six games for his role in the melee, but came back and produced workmanlike numbers in Big East play. A stout 6’9″, 260 pounds, the senior posted five double-doubles in twenty conference games and averaged more than nine boards in Big East contests.

Thanks to Gates’ suspension, Cincinnati discovered a new offensive approach that worked wonders for the team. With just two other forwards left to play consistent minutes during the six-game suspension, Cronin and the ‘Cats went with a four-guard look. Floor spacing improved, driving lanes opened up, and the offense was immediately more efficient.

Naysayers would point to the quality of opponents on the Cincinnati schedule in mid-Decembber, but the results were hard to argue with. In the first eight games of the season — a stretch which ended with the Xavier game — the Bearcats scored just 0.99 points per possession. In the eight games that followed — which included the team’s first three Big East contests — Cincinnati put in 1.17 points per possession, and did it without their senior big man.

It wasn’t just the suspension of Gates that led to the new look for Cincinnati. Junior guard JaQuon Parker (No. 44) had missed the first seven games of the season and saw his first action in that infamous Xavier game. With Gates out of the lineup and sophomore Justin Jackson (No. 5) now the only starting forward, Parker was thrust into the starting five in only his second game of the season.

Just 6’3″, Parker is a strong 210 pounds, and he brings some added toughness to a team that is rather undersized by Big East standards. He’s the team’s second best rebounder, snagging more than five per game, and he’s strong enough to finish through contact when he drives into traffic. Parker is solid going to his left and is able to find cracks in the defense off the bounce, an absolute must-have skill in the Cincy attack.

Jackson, meanwhile, has become the team’s sixth man now that Gates is back in the starting five. He’s a long and lean 6’8″ guy with a face-up game and ridiculous athleticism. He has excellent speed in the open court, which opponents quickly realize when he swats away a fast break bucket from behind the play.

One thing currently limiting Jackson’s game is his tendency to commit needless fouls. He actually averages 5.6 whistles per 40 minutes, and is the only Bearcat who has fouled out of more than two games this season. Of course, he’s all but guaranteed that title at the team banquet, as he’s already been DQ-ed six times this year.

In the backcourt, you’ll find the only two Cincy players to start all 34 games this year, senior Dion Dixon (No. 3) and sophomore Sean Kilpatrick (No. 23). Dixon is yet another guard who can quickly drive the lane and finish at the rim, and the Bearcats find a ton of success by simply setting back picks for him on the perimeter.

Kilpatrick can also penetrate and finish, but his biggest role on the team is knocking down triples. With Parker, Dixon, and point guard Cashmere Wright (No. 1) slicing up defenses on the drive, Kilpatrick can camp out on the arc for the kick-outs. His 228 long-range attempts are the most on the team by far, and his 6-of-9 performance behind the arc was key to upsetting Syracuse in the Big East tournament semis. That was the best three-point game in quite some time for Kilpatrick, who had gone more than a month since previously cracking the 33% barrier from behind the arc.

At the point, Wright is key to making the four-out, one-in approach work. He can feel out defenses on the dribble, find the weak spots, and turn that into points or a well-timed assist. Wright has great body control inside to finish amidst the trees, but also does a great job slipping dump-offs to the big man on the block when the defense converges. His assist rate is just outside of the Top 100 nationally, as the junior logs a dime on nearly 30% of the buckets made when he’s on the court.

Those six players eat up almost 84% of the team’s minutes, so the rest of the rotation sees very little action. Freshman guard Ge’Lawn Guyn (No. 14) and Senaglese big man Cheikh Mbodj (No. 13) both average about nine minutes per game. Guyn provides some backup minutes for Wright at the point, but had just five assists in his limited Big East action. Inside, Mbodj still looks like he lacks confidence at times, despite being an All-American at the junior college level

Keys to the game

It’s the biggest game of the year for the Longhorns, so we’re expanding from the typical trio of game keys to an entire list. Texas doesn’t need to do all of these things to win, but these are the most important things for the Horns to keep in mind when facing the Bearcats.

1) Deny dribble penetration – The Cincinnati offense is predicated on penetration from the guards, leading to layups at the rim, dump-offs to the bigs, or kick-outs for three. The Bearcats do not shoot very well from the field, with a two-point field-goal percentage that is in the bottom half of Division I hoops. Texas needs to close off the driving lanes and turn back the penetration, forcing Cincinnati to beat them with the jumper.

2) Rotate quickly in help situations – With a backcourt as quick and talented as Cincinnati’s, that goal of denying dribble penetration is easier said than done. There are going to be possessions where the Bearcat guards get past the Texas perimeter defense, and the rest of the Longhorns need to be ready to react. Cincinnati loves setting those back picks on the wings for their guards, so the help defense has to be there. Texas cannot afford to let Cincinnati drive unimpeded to the rim.

3) Limit second chances – If Texas can successfully force Cincinnati into taking jump shots, there will be quite a few misses clanging off the iron. Unfortunately for Texas, that can often work out even better for a Bearcat team that cleans up the offensive glass. The Horns are going to give up offensive boards, but need to limit second-chance points for Cincinnati. That means getting a body on Gates, Jackson, and Parker once the shot is up, and not allowing easy buckets in the scramble after long boards.

4) Make the misses count – As good as the Bearcats are at reclaiming missed shots, the Longhorns are even better. Cincinnati utilizes both man and zone defenses, but Texas should be able to do a solid job on the offensive glass against both looks. The Bearcats will have no specific box-out assignments in the zone, while Texas actually has a height advantage to exploit in man-to-man situations. The Longhorns are bound to reclaim a lot of their missed shots in this game, but they have to actually turn those into points. Fortunately, Texas did a great job of this against Missouri, so Horn fans are hoping that will carry over into this one.

5) Stay aggressive against the zone – With Texas shooting poorly from outside this season, Cincinnati will probably stick with their zone for much of today’s ballgame. Unfortunately, the Horns have had some rough, futile stretches in games where they have faced that type of defense. During the painful sets, players stand around, cuts are lackadaisical, no one flashes to the middle, and guards don’t try to collapse the defense with penetration. When the Longhorns actually execute — like they did against Baylor in the first half of their game in Waco — the youngsters can easily slice up a zone. The rub is that they have to be willing to play intelligently and do all of those little things to score against Cincinnati today.

6) Shake things up – Cincinnati hardly ever turns the ball over, but when they do, it’s typically in the open court. DePaul and Marquette were both able to rattle the Bearcats in transition, and that led to easy points. Sometimes that was the result of poking the ball away in the open court, but often the miscues happened just because Cincy guards weren’t comfortable at that pace. The Bearcats are excellent at controlling the ball in their half-court sets, and are very tough to beat at their preferred tempo. Texas isn’t exactly a run-and-gun team, but the Horns might want to consider mixing in some pressure to force some mistakes and get a few easy points.

The Texas Longhorns earned their biggest win of the season last night, dispatching Iowa State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Championship. The win, combined with numerous losses by other bubble teams, seems to have the Longhorns safely in the NCAA field for now. Tonight’s third tussle with Missouri offers Texas a chance to completely lock up that dance ticket, as a win would give the Horns five against RPI Top 50 opponents. Fortunately, the Horns still look to be in good shape for the NCAAs with a loss in tonight’s game, as long as it remains competitive.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri roster and their style of play, check out LRT’s preview of the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Missouri knocked off Texas by an 84-73 count when the teams met at Mizzou Arena on January 14th. Read LRT’s recap of the game for a full breakdown.

The second meeting

When the two schools met in Austin on January 30th, the final few minutes offered nail-biting excitement. The Longhorns erased a 10-point deficit in less than four minutes and even took a lead in the final seconds. Michael Dixon was the hero for the Tigers, though, putting in an impressive game-winning shot with 31 seconds to go. For a full recap of the action in that game, click here for the LRT post-game.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the turnovers – The Longhorns made things difficult in both games against Missouri by wasting first-half possessions. In the first meeting, Texas coughed it up on 22% of their possessions, with two frustrating ones coming during a first-half Mizzou rally that built the lead to double-digits. When the teams met again in Austin, the Horns ended nearly a quarter of their first-half possessions with turnovers. There is little margin for error if Texas wants an upset tonight, so they will have to exhibit the same kind of ball control they had in the win over Iowa State last night.

2) Get a big game from the bigs – Texas will once again be without Alexis Wangmene, who had surgery on his wrist earlier this week. Fortunately, the Tigers typically run a four-out, one-in look, so that hole in the frontcourt won’t be as big of an issue as it could be. Texas needs Clint Chapman to avoid fouls and give another warrior performance like he did against Iowa State. Jonathan Holmes averaged eight boards and 23 minutes in his two games against Missouri, so Texas will be looking for similar output from the freshman tonight.

3) Limit dribble penetration – In the first game, it was Flip Pressey that dissected the Texas defense. In the second, it was Dixon who repeatedly shook J’Covan Brown and lit up the scoreboard. Missouri is great at penetrating with the bounce and getting easy looks for Ricardo Ratliffe or open threes for their dead-eye shooters. When teams take away that penetration — and it’s extraordinarily tough to do against Missouri — the Tiger offense no longer looks unstoppable. If the Longhorns can limit the damage done by the drivers, they should be able to hang tough and challenge the Tigers.

The Longhorns are up against the proverbial wall as they open Big 12 tournament play tonight. Texas is squarely on the bubble in nearly every bracket projection you can find, so a loss to Iowa State in tonight’s game will almost certainly end any hopes of an NCAA bid. A victory would give Texas four wins against the RPI Top 50, a key metric used by the Selection Committee, and would likely earn them a shot at another quality win against Missouri in the semifinals tomorrow.

The Cyclones and Longhorns split their pair of meetings this season, with each team defending home court. Now that the two teams are squaring off on a neutral floor, it’s apparent just how evenly matched they are. Ken Pomeroy gives Texas a 51% chance to come up with the big win tonight, predicting just a one-point margin of victory.

Meet the Cyclones

For a full look at the Iowa State roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The Wangmene effect

The biggest difference in tonight’s third round of ISU/Texas is the sudden absence of big man Alexis Wangmene. While he only averaged 15 minutes in the two games against Iowa State this year, Wangmene’s wrist injury means that the Longhorns now have an even thinner frontcourt rotation, and even less size.

For the Longhorns, that means Rick Barnes will have to get creative with the lineup. The easiest solution would seem to be going with a smaller starting five and leaving Clint Chapman as the sole post presence. This would also get Sheldon McClellan into the starting lineup without having to take out Julien Lewis. McClellan brings extra offense to the table and can really get the offense moving when he’s aggressive. Lewis, meanwhile, provides quality defense on the perimeter and is usually good for a few “take and makes” each game.

The alternative would be to slide Jonathan Holmes right into Wangmene’s spot and keep size on the frontline. The danger in this approach is that Chapman has a tendency to get in foul trouble, and the only other frontcourt player left is undersized Jaylen Bond. Iowa State also makes this approach difficult, because the typical strategy to protect your bigs from foul trouble is a zone defense. The Cyclones are absolutely deadly from long range, so Texas would be taking a monumental risk by using a zone.

Fortunately, a four-out, one-in look matches up very well with Iowa State. It brings more athleticism and quickness to the court, which is key in trying to keep the quick Cyclone players from penetrating with the bounce. In addition, Chapman has actually been very successful against Iowa State this season, as the Longhorns made a concerted effort to get him touches right away in both games. As long as the big man can avoid foul trouble, the Longhorns might be able to survive against Iowa State without Wangmene.

Keys to the game

1) Keep Chapman on the floor- With that being said, it’s fairly obvious that the biggest concern for Texas is keeping Chapman on the court. Royce White was saddled with early foul trouble when the teams played in Ames, but posted a monster 15/15 double-double when he played 35 minutes in Austin. Chapman will be key to stopping the Iowa State superstar, and will also be needed to score easy points inside against an undersized Cyclone squad.

2) Limit the damage from deep- If you want to quickly find the biggest difference between the two Iowa State/Texas games, look no further than the three-point percentages. Iowa State was 10-of-21 in their win over Texas — including a ridiculous 9-of-12 in the first half — and just 5-of-21 in their loss. The Cyclone roster is filled with players who are deadly from long range, so the Longhorns must be vigilant on the perimeter and make sure those long looks are challenged.

3) Stop White in transition- On multiple occasions in both games, Royce White simply brought the ball all the way up the court and was halfway down the lane before a Texas defender challenged him. The Longhorns must stop the ball and cannot allow the big man to score his points so easily. In addition to giving Iowa State easy looks, that poor defense also led to unnecessary fouls when the defense reacted so late. With an even thinner frontcourt this time around, Texas simply cannot afford to let White drive the lane with impunity.

4) Be aggressive with the ball- As Texas fans know all too well, the Longhorn offense has a terrible tendency to go stagnant. When opponents double through ball screens, the Longhorn guards typically retreat instead of attacking. When defenders fight through staggered baseline screens set for the Texas shooters, the guards usually just dribble the air out of the ball at the top of the key.

The Longhorns have athletic guys who can put the ball on the floor and create looks, so they need to use those skills tonight. McClellan, Lewis, J’Covan Brown, and Myck Kabongo must attack with the dribble and get things moving. Iowa State’s defense has proven to be susceptible to dribble penetration, so Texas has to exploit that.

In a busy Saturday packed full of games with huge NCAA implications, the Texas Longhorns tackle their toughest test of the season. Situated squarely on the bubble, the young Horns will be facing a top-five Kansas team on Senior Night, in front of a crowd thirsty for revenge after Texas snapped their 69-game home winning streak last January. If those subplots weren’t enough to create an electric atmosphere in Lawrence tonight, the Jayhawks are also still playing for the right to be bracketed into the geographically-favorable St. Louis regional of the NCAA tournament.

For the Longhorns, the one positive is that there is practically no one outside of the team and staff that is giving them much of a chance to win tonight. With other bubble teams dropping games this afternoon against much weaker competition than Kansas, a loss tonight would not be crippling for Texas. On the other hand, a victory that shocks the nation would almost certainly punch a ticket to the NCAAs for the Horns.

Meet the Jayhawks

For an in-depth look at the Kansas roster and style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns fell behind early when they hosted Kansas on January 21st, managing just nine points in the game’s first 12 minutes. The Jayhawks carried a 12-point lead to the locker room, powered by Tyshawn Taylor’s 12-point, four-assist first half. On the other side of the ball, J’Covan Brown struggled for Texas, going just 1-for-8 from the field in the first half.

After the break, Kansas built their lead back out to 15 points on a pair of free throws and a three-pointer from Taylor, but the Longhorn defense dug in their heels after that. Texas held Kansas to just 33% shooting from the field in the second half and slowly chipped away at the lead, finally taking an advantage of their own when Clint Chapman sank two free throws with 5:39 to play.

The Longhorns extended the lead to four points on a Brown triple with 3:21 to go, but they could not manage another basket the rest of the way. Kansas, meanwhile, executed down the stretch, going ahead for good on a Jeff Withey three-point play with 37 seconds left. Brown had two chances to tie the game in the final minute, missing a leaner with 15 seconds left and a three-pointer with less than two seconds to go.

Kansas escaped Austin with a 69-66 win and moved to 7-0 in conference play, while the Longhorns missed one of many opportunities to log a signature victory.

Since then…

The Jayhawks have been practically unstoppable en route to their eighth-consecutive Big 12 crown, falling only in road games at Iowa State and Missouri. Junior big man Jeff Withey has been a big part of that success, as his offensive game has developed nicely in Big 12 play. Already known for his shot-blocking abilities, Withey has upped his scoring average to 11.4 points over his last 14 games. If not for two terrible performances against Missouri — he scored a combined two points and grabbed just five boards versus the Tigers — those numbers would be even more impressive.

Last weekend, Kansas was down 19 points at home to Missouri in what might have been the final installment of the Border War. In front of a frenzied home crowd, the Jayhawks stormed back to force overtime and knock off their hated rivals, locking up another league title as Thomas Robinson made a strong case for national Player of the Year honors. T-Rob posted a mammoth 28-point, 12-rebound line, while Taylor scored 24 points, including four big triples.

While the top two seeds in the Big 12 Championship have already been decided, Mizzou and Kansas are still battling for the right to play their second weekend of the NCAA tournament in St. Louis. Thanks to the pod system, both teams will get to play close to home in Omaha for the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but only one can land the coveted St. Louis regional. A potential rubber match between the two rivals in the conference tournament could be the deciding factor.

Keys to the game

1) Weather the storm – The Longhorns have dug themselves some big holes this season, and almost always rally back to make things interesting. In an environment like Allen Fieldhouse, that could be very difficult, especially for a young team like Texas. The closest thing to the Phog that these six freshmen have seen was the Dean Dome, and things got out of hand quickly in that blowout loss to UNC. If Texas wants to have any chance at an upset, they’ll have to avoid getting punched in the nose in the game’s opening minutes.

2) Draw fouls – The only weakness for Bill Self and the Jayhawks is a rather thin bench. If Texas can somehow get Taylor, Withey, or Robinson in foul trouble, there’s not anyone comparable on the Jayhawk bench that can fill those shoes. If Texas can get some of the key Kansas players on the bench while also manufacturing some points at the line, perhaps the Horns can stay within striking distance for crunch time.

3) Slow down Tyshawn Taylor – The mercurial junior has shown that he can be rattled and will often make questionable decisions in high-pressure situations. Unfortunately, he’s rarely shown those tendencies against the Longhorns. When Texas won in Allen Fieldhouse last January, the Horns were able to limit Taylor to just four points, but didn’t force him into any turnovers. In the two Kansas victories since then, Tyshawn has averaged 21 points, shot 60.9% from the field — including 62.5% behind the arc — and posted nine boards and nine assists. If the Longhorns fail to contain him again tonight, it will be nearly impossible to pull off the improbable road upset.

The NCAA hopes of the Texas Longhorns survived an incredibly close call in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon, as Rick Barnes and Co. escaped the High Plains with a 71-67 overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Longhorns coughed up an 11-point halftime lead and even found themselves down by as many as six in overtime, yet managed to avoid a crippling loss that would have practically guaranteed Texas would miss the NCAA tournament.

Instead, the Longhorns find themselves still in the “Last Four In” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, with all four of those teams in action tonight. While Texas can’t make a huge statement with a win over Oklahoma tonight, a victory is necessary to keep hopes alive.

Northwestern and South Florida both have chances to knock off opponents in the RPI’s Top 25, as they host Ohio State and travel to Louisville, respectively. A win by either of those teams will easily push them past Texas in the pecking order, but that is much easier said than done. If the Wildcats and Bulls can’t notch signature wins, the Longhorns have an opportunity to create a little cushion in the S-curve with a victory tonight.

Meet the Sooners

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma roster and the team’s key stats, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

For a post-game from the first Texas/OU match-up this season, read LRT’s recap of the Texas victory in Norman.

Since then…

With Texas and Oklahoma not squaring off until mid-February, the teams had to wait just 15 days to face each other once again. The Sooners posted a 1-2 mark since last facing the Longhorns, with their only victory coming at home against Oklahoma State. In that game, Oklahoma logged a 45.5% success rate from behind the arc, led by Steven Pledger’s hot hand. The junior guard was 3-for-4 from long range and was tops on the team with 17 points.

Tyler Neal also found success from three-point range in that game, knocking down two of his four attempts. The sophomore made some clutch threes against Texas, and that performance jump-started his recent resurgence. After averaging just a shade over eight minutes per game in OU’s first 14 Big 12 contests, Neal logged 17 minutes against the Longhorns. In the three games since then, he’s averaged more than 18, and has become a key contributor off the bench. As the Longhorns learned in Norman, Neal cannot be given too much space to shoot.

The Texas game also proved to be a launching pad for fellow sophomore Cameron Clark. After a freshman season in which he showed flashes of brilliance, Clark had yet to make a big splash against quality opponents this season. He finally dazzled against the Horns, however, putting in 13 points in a 38-minute performance. He’s hardly left the floor since facing Texas, averaging 14 points and nearly 34 minutes in those three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Start quickly – The Longhorns struggled early against the Oklahoma zone in Norman, although it certainly wasn’t the fault of point guard Myck Kabongo. He consistently found creases in the defense and set up his teammates, but the Horns were ice cold from the floor. If Texas can hit those open looks tonight and get the reactionary Erwin Center crowd into it right away, this one could have a very different feel from the first game.

2) Limit second-chance points – The Sooners are one of the nation’s best when it comes to reclaiming missed shots, snagging more than 36% of their offensive board chances. Texas kept Oklahoma right at their season average, allowing the Sooners to reclaim 36.1% of their missed shots. Even more importantly, Oklahoma was only able to turn those offensive boards into eight extra points. If Texas can hold OU to a similar number tonight, a season sweep should be in the cards.

3) Lock down the perimeter – Oklahoma only made 33% of their threes in the first game, but have a pair of quality outside shooters in Pledger and the suddenly-important Neal. As any fan of college basketball knows, the triple is the great equalizer, so Texas needs to keep those two Sooners from getting hot beyond the arc. Oklahoma lacks any other real sharpshooters, so chasing Pledger and Neal off the perimeter will greatly diminish the chances of an upset tonight.

Margin for error is a thing of the past for the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ young team lost any wiggle room they might have had in their quest for the NCAA tournament, falling to Oklahoma State and Baylor in back-to-back games. The two defeats put Texas right back on the bubble with only three games left in the regular season.

Few people hold the illusion that the Longhorns will march into Allen Fieldhouse and earn a win against Kansas in the season finale. That means that Texas has to win their next two games and one in the Big 12 tournament to even get to the 20-win plateau. Thanks to an incredibly soft bubble this season, Texas could even still squeak into this year’s NCAA tournament with less than 20 wins.

Regardless of how many victories the team finishes the year with, what the Horns simply cannot afford to have is the stench of a loss to Texas Tech emanating from their résumé If Texas goes down in Lubbock this afternoon, it’s time to start making plans for the NIT.

Meet the Red Raiders

To learn more about the Texas Tech players and the team’s style of basketball, check out LRT’s game preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first game

The Longhorns set the tone early, swatting Texas Tech’s shots with regularity. Unable to score, the Red Raiders were further discouraged by a Texas offense that penetrated at will and scored in bunches. Senior Clint Chapman was the biggest benefactor, scoring 20 points on a ton of easy looks and a perfect 8-of-8 mark at the line.

The game was never in doubt, and Texas built a lead as large as 25 points in the second half. Despite the deep hole, Texas Tech continued to fight, reeling off an eight-point run before trading buckets down the stretch. Texas cruised to a 74-57 victory, as three different Horns scored at least 17 points.

In the post-game presser, Coach Barnes showed concern over that late defensive lapse, saying his team started to “play with no purpose.” If the Longhorns manage to build a big lead at United Spirit Arena this afternoon, you can be sure that the coaches will remind them to stay focused.

Since then…

Texas Tech managed to avoid the historical shame of an 0-for-conference season, whipping Oklahoma at home two weeks ago. The Red Raiders locked down Sooner superstar Steven Pledger, holding him to just four points. A box-and-one defense was especially effective for Tech down the stretch, as Bean Willis stuck with Pledger and frustrated him in crunch time.

The Red Raiders were unable to build on that victory, however, scoring just 38 points in a home loss to A&M three days later. Even more shocking than that final output was the fact that Tech managed just 12 of those points in the final 21:30 of the game. The Red Raiders posted an offensive efficiency mark of only 0.716 points per possession, coughing it up on more than 26% of their trips down the floor.

Tech followed that game with a predictable drubbing in Allen Fieldhouse at the hands of the Jayhawks, but then performed admirably in a road game against Iowa State. Although the Cyclones ultimately won by a 72-54 count, the Red Raiders trailed by just three points at the under-eight media timeout. Unfortunately, Tech managed just two points the rest of the way as Iowa State pulled away for the victory.

Keys to the game

1) Force turnovers – The Red Raiders have one of the few rosters in the country with less experience than Texas, and that youth has shown in the form of constant miscues. Tech is one of the five worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage, losing the ball on 25.9% of their possessions. If the Longhorns defense can ensure that Tech continues that trend this afternoon, it will not only cripple the Red Raider offense, but also fuel the transition game for Texas.

2) Make the freebies – While Tech is one of the worst five teams in terms of turnovers, they are nearly as bad when it comes to sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 49.6% is one of the 10 worst in D-I hoops, and it means that Texas Tech opponents shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

The Longhorns are knocking down 73% of their free throws so far this year, but have had random games where that number has been closer to 60%. Leaving points at the line will only serve to keep Tech in the game, something that is incredibly dangerous on the road.

3) Make Big Lew uncomfortable – Robert Lewandowski has proven to be a very streaky player in his four years at Texas Tech, and when he’s on a hot streak he can be incredibly effective. On the other side of the coin, he’s also proven that a rough start can essentially knock him out of the game before it really even gets going.

If the Texas defense can replicate their work from the first game, Big Lew will have a hard time getting started. Forcing him to take tough shots early and attacking him on defense should knock Lewandowski out of his comfort zone. Without a big game from their biggest player, Tech will have a hard time pulling off the upset.

The Texas Longhorns took a big step backwards on Saturday, losing to Oklahoma State and a superhuman Keiton Page in Stillwater. The loss snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and set the Horns back a few pegs on the S-curve, with just two weeks left in the regular season. A win over the Cowboys would have kept Texas safely above the bubble, but now the Horns find themselves back in the danger zone.

With just three wins against the RPI Top 50, the Longhorn résumé could use some extra lines. Those three victories came against Temple (currently 16th in the RPI), Iowa State (40th), and Kansas State (50th), so a win tonight over Baylor (10th) would certainly bolster Texas’ post-season hopes. While the Longhorns could still feasibly make the NCAAs without a win tonight, it would require a lot of help from other teams, or a solid run in the conference tournament.

Texas has had more than its fair share of opportunities to knock off top teams, having lost three games against teams in the RPI’s Top 10 by a combined nine points. Tonight’s battle with Baylor represents the best chance the Longhorns have left for a defining victory. The only question that remains is whether or not this young team can finally rise to the challenge.

Meet the Bears

For a full look at the Baylor roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

The Longhorns found success early against the Baylor defense with quick ball movement and aggressive play. Texas actually built a small, early lead over the Bears, holding a four-point edge eight minutes into the game. But with both Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo cooling their heels on the bench after picking up two fouls each, Baylor was able to pull ahead and take a nine-point lead to the locker room.

Although the Bears stretched their lead as large as 12 points, the Longhorns chipped away at that advantage throughout the second half. J’Covan Brown exploded for 20 of his 32 points after the break, bring the Longhorns all the way back to tie it with just 2:53 to go. Pierre Jackson immediately responded with a clutch three to give Baylor a new lead, one that the team would never relinquish. Although Brown had a three-point attempt to tie the game with 10 seconds left, it clanked off the iron and the Bears salted it away with a pair of free throws by A.J. Walton.

Perry Jones III led the way for Baylor, posting a double-double with an impressive 22-point, 14-rebound line. Quincy Miller also put up great numbers, showing off a smooth jump shot as he piled up 18 points.

Texas did a great job rattling the Baylor offense in the first meeting, turning 18 miscues into 20 points. Unfortunately, the Longhorns also had one of their worst outings of the season at the free-throw line, making just 16 of their 26 attempts. In a game where the Bears only won by five points and made 80% of their own shots at the charity stripe, that failure to convert the freebies was crippling.

Since then…

Baylor has posted just a 3-3 record since facing the Longhorns, with two of those wins coming narrowly against teams at the bottom of the standings. The Bears needed some last minute heroics from Jackson — and an inexplicably bad shot from Elston Turner — to knock off A&M at Reed Arena, 63-60. A few days later, the Bears again held on in the final minute to earn a 64-60 road win at Oklahoma State.

After surviving those close calls, the Bears were hoping to earn some revenge the following week against the only two teams to defeat them — Kansas and Missouri. Instead, Baylor was embarrassed on national television by Kansas and Jeff Withey, and then lost by 15 to the Tigers in Columbia.

Two games out of first place and having been swept by both of the teams ahead of them, the Bears were essentially eliminated from the Big 12 race. Saturday’s one-point loss at home to Kansas State served only to shovel more dirt on those title hopes, while also dropping Baylor into a tie for third with Iowa State.

Over the last two weeks, the PJ3 critics have once again been out in force. The sophomore star has long been lambasted for disappearing in big games and lacking the drive to carry his team. With the Bears losing three out of their last four, his weak performances have given the naysayers plenty of ammo. In the losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, PJ3 averaged just 4.3 points per game on 19.2% shooting from the field.

The Bears have also seen a severe drop-off in their three point success. In their last five games, Baylor has made just 28.2% of their long-range attempts, a far cry from the 41.4% mark they carried into the first game with Texas. While there’s certainly no way that the Longhorns can lay off the Baylor three-point shooters and focus solely on the interior threats, another rough night for Baylor behind the arc will definitely help Texas’ chances.

Keys to the game

1) Win the turnover battle – The Longhorns did an excellent job forcing mistakes when they took on the Bears in Waco. Baylor ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover, leading to 20 points for the Longhorns. In front of a Texas crowd that often only cheers when given a reason to, fast break buckets will be key to keeping the Longhorn fans on their feet.

In Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coughed it up on more than 21% of their possessions, while forcing the Cowboys into mistakes on just 11% of theirs. Even if Texas isn’t able to force as many mistakes by Baylor as they did the first time around, the Horns simply cannot afford to waste their own possessions. Texas absolutely must take better care of the basketball tonight.

2) Make the second chances count – One of Baylor’s most glaring weaknesses is their inability to close out possessions with defensive boards. Even though their team is long and athletic, the Bears are in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to allowing offensive rebounds. The Longhorns happen to be the 13th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation, so they will certainly get some second and third chances tonight. Texas must take advantage of those extended possessions and turn them into more points.

3) Move the ball quickly – The Baylor zone has sprung a few leaks this season, as Kansas showed the nation in their win on February 8th. The Bears are especially susceptible in the short corner, often failing to rotate and giving up easy points on the baseline. Texas exploited this a few times in Waco, and needs to do the same again tonight. Quick ball movement and aggressive penetration will force Baylor to react on defense, something that has been a major problem for the team all season long.

4) Avoid first-half foul trouble – Kabongo and Chapman have been particularly bad offenders in this category, spending much of the first half on the bench in multiple conference games. While some of Chapman’s first-half fouls fall on other Longhorns missing defensive assignments, Kabongo often picks up cheap fouls on plays he has no business trying to make. The Longhorns will need both players to remain in the game this evening, and will also need Alexis Wangmene to avoid foul trouble and help compete against Baylor’s size.

5) Get McClellan going – If Kabongo does happen to find himself in foul trouble, it will be much easier for Baylor to focus their defense on Brown. Sheldon McClellan needs to be assertive and make himself a scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. When McClellan takes charge, the Longhorn offense is much less stagnant, and much more difficult to defend.

The Texas Longhorns are riding high as they head into Stillwater, boasting a four-game winning streak and rising stock on the National Bubble Exchange. With just five games left in the regular season, the Horns still have their sights set on a 20-win season, something that may have seemed unimaginable in mid-January.

This afternoon’s game at Gallagher-Iba Arena might look like an easy win on paper, but road victories are always tough to come by in Stillwater. With bubble teams around the nation missing key opportunities to secure quality wins, simply taking care of business on the road improves Texas’ post-season outlook. Avoid getting tripped up this afternoon at Gallagher-Iba, and the Horns can start breathing a little easier when thinking about the NCAAs.

Meet the Cowboys

For a full look at the Oklahoma State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

Texas overcame putrid shooting and a lingering injury to J’Covan Brown in a narrow 58-49 victory over Oklahoma State at the Erwin Center on January 7th. The Longhorns forced 21 Cowboy turnovers and kept a thin Oklahoma State rotation in constant foul trouble, grinding their way to victory.

In just his second career start, redshirt freshman Brian Williams led the Pokes in scoring, posting 16 points on the night. After struggling in his first career start just days earlier against Tech, Williams drained a pair of threes against the Longhorns. The team’s new point guard still battled turnover issues under the bright lights, but his scoring helped to solidify his role as the new starter.

For the Longhorns, guard Myck Kabongo and freshman forward Jonathan Holmes led the way. Kabongo was aggressive with the ball, penetrating the Oklahoma State defense to set his teammates up with good looks and earn himself trips to the line. Unfortunately, the Longhorns had a terrible night shooting the basketball, so Kabongo only actually earned six assists for the game. Meanwhile, Holmes chipped in a great performance on the offensive glass, turning four offensive boards into four easy buckets.

Since then…

Williams has started every conference game for the Pokes, with freshman guard Cezar Guerrero now relegated to the bench. Against Big 12 opponents, Williams has averaged more than 11 points in 35 minutes per game. Although he knocked down 2-of-5 from long range against Texas, he has not found much more success behind the arc, making just 5-of-36 in his other conference games.

Markel Brown has also made a big impact for OSU over the last few weeks. The sophomore was still recovering from an injury when Texas hosted the Cowboys in the first matchup, and he simply couldn’t get it going on the offensive end. Brown was just 1-of-6 from the floor against the Horns and scored only three points. Since then, he’s averaged 14.4 points per game for OSU, including a solid 19-point performance in a big home win over Iowa State.

Freshman Le’Bryan Nash has also found his stride in conference play, as his 14.8 scoring average in Big 12 games is tops among league freshman. Nash also sparked a furious second-half rally for Oklahoma State against Missouri, finishing with 27 points in the monumental upset. The Longhorns were able to hold him to just 12 points in their first meeting, but could have a much tougher time limiting his impact in this one.

Keys to the game

1) Get out to a fast start – The Longhorns have become a second-half team this season, often falling behind early before roaring back in the final 20 minutes. Gallagher-Iba is an arena that gets loud in a hurry, even when it’s only half full. If the Longhorns allow Oklahoma State to get any momentum early, it could be very hard to stage a comeback in this road environment.

The Gallagher-Iba aura is also why Texas needs to be sure to stop any runs, even if that means burning some timeouts early. Missouri can testify to how quickly Oklahoma State can get going with its crowd behind it, so the Longhorns must respond to those momentum swings, whether it’s with a fan-silencing basket or simply a 30-second timeout.

2) Attack inside – The Cowboys have a frontcourt that is just as thin as Texas’, if not more so. With just Michael Cobbins, Philip Jurick, and Euro-style big Marek Souček available, the Cowboys have little option but to go with a smaller lineup when their forwards get into foul trouble. Texas has done a great job being aggressive with the basketball in its last two games, earning a heap of points at the free-throw line. If the guards and wings can keep that up in this afternoon’s games, the whistles will force Coach Travis Ford to get creative with his lineup.

3) Limit the damage outside – Oklahoma State doesn’t have much in the way of outside threats, but senior Keiton Page is always dangerous from long range. Nothing fuels an upset more than hot three-point shooting, and Page comes into this one on a tear. Although his success rate for the season is just 34.6%, he’s made 9-of-20 from behind the arc in the team’s last two games. If Texas can keep Page and Brown from knocking down a handful of threes, the odds for an Oklahoma State upset take a serious hit.

For the first time in nearly two months, the Texas Longhorns are owners of a three-game winning streak. With their post-season hopes hanging precariously in the balance, the current run of success could not have come at a better time. During the streak, the Horns have moved up from Joe Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” — where five or six teams blocked their path to the NCAAs — to beyond the “Last Four In,” currently avoiding the play-in games in Dayton.

Of course, there’s still nearly four weeks of basketball until Selection Sunday. That is more than enough time for Texas to trip up in late February, something that has become a tradition over the last two years. The Longhorns have about as easy of a second-half conference schedule as they could get in a league as deep as the Big 12, but that’s not saying much. Tonight’s game against an Oklahoma team that’s just 3-9 in the conference qualifies as one of their easiest games left, but it’s deceptively tough. While the Sooners might look like an easy W on paper, escaping Norman with a win is truly a much more dangerous proposition.

By the numbers

First-year coach Lon Kruger has turned Oklahoma around faster than anyone could have imagined, rapidly rebuilding a team that was picked in the preseason to tie for last place with Texas Tech. The Sooners tore through a non-conference slate that included a lot of cupcake opponents, but they also logged quality wins over Arkansas and Oral Roberts. Heading into conference play, they were undoubtedly one of the league’s biggest surprise teams.

Big 12 play hasn’t been kind to OU, however. After a blowout loss in the conference opener to Missouri, the Sooners have been competitive in every game, but have had a tough time nailing down victories. They played the Jayhawks tough for a half in Norman, but let the league leaders pull away in the second. A road loss to A&M came in overtime, and would have been a victory if not for failure to execute at the end of regulation. Last week, a potential game-tying three-pointer clanged off the iron at the buzzer and allowed Mizzou to escape with a win.

A big part of the problem for Oklahoma has been a porous defense in league games. Against conference opponents, the Sooners allow more than 1.1 points per possession, the worst efficiency mark in the Big 12. With their two primary forwards checking in at just 6’8″, the Sooners are allowing Big 12 teams to kill them down low, with opponents hitting 54.1% of their shots from inside the arc. If Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene can continue their strong play in the post, the Longhorns should be able to take advantage of this weakness.

Offense hasn’t been much better for the Sooners in conference play, as they score just 0.968 points per possession. Oklahoma was one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams in non-con play, but their numbers have dropped off dramatically against the Big 12. After knocking down 40.9% of their long-range attempts in non-conference games, OU has made just 31.6% of their threes in league games. This is mostly a result of shrinking the core rotation down to just seven players, as now Steven Pledger is the only consistent outside shooter who plays significant minutes. If the Longhorns can keep him from getting hot from outside, it will certainly damage OU’s hopes for an upset.

Texas fans can also be reassured by Oklahoma’s aversion to the free throw line. The Sooners have one of the worst free-throw rates in the country, earning less than one attempt at the charity stripe for every three field goal tries. For a Longhorn team that has been equally bad at sending teams to the line, this is excellent news. Key Texas players should be able to avoid foul trouble, while the rapidly-improving Longhorn defense won’t be scuttled by giving up free points.

Meet the Sooners

Junior guard Steven Pledger (No. 2) leads the Sooners with more than 17 points per game. As mentioned above, he’s the only true long-range threat that is seeing significant PT in conference play, where he’s averaging more than 34 minutes per game. He needs very little space to get up a shot, and uses his three-point threat to blow past tight man pressure for layups and open midrange pull-ups.

Pledger’s importance to the Sooner offense was never more apparent than in their ugly loss at Texas Tech on Saturday night. Billy Gillispie and the Red Raiders threw a box-and-one look at Oklahoma, isolating Pledger with the man defense. The junior scored just four points on 2-of-7 shooting, crippling the Oklahoma offense. As a result, the Sooners lost by 18 to a team that had yet to even log a conference win.

With Pledger locked down, the Sooners had to rely on point guard Sam Grooms (No. 1) to facilitate the offense. A transfer from Chipola College in Florida, Grooms is a quick, shifty guard who can penetrate the lane and create open looks for his teammates. The main problem with Grooms’ game is that he is a very spotty shooter, allowing defenses to sag off and limit that driving ability.

In the frontcourt, junior Andrew Fitzgerald (No. 4) provides the Sooners with an excellent inside-out threat. As one of the two tallest players in the starting five, the 6’8″ Fitzgerald is key to OU finding success on the glass. Down low, he still struggles at times with point blank looks, something that was a huge problem for him last year. He does boast an excellent midrange game, though, as he consistently knocks down 15-footers from the baseline and jumpers from the elbow. If the Longhorns use a man defense on the Sooners tonight, Chapman and Wangmene could have their hands full when he faces up outside the lane.

Mississippi State transfer Romero Osby (No. 24) is the other post presence for Oklahoma, and he is a much more traditional forward. Osby leads the team with 7.7 rebounds per game, and prefers to isolate on the block when he gets the ball. He’s much more athletic and quick than other big men, so he can put a quick drop step on his defender and get to the rack with ease. Fortunately, his midrange shot is nowhere near as consistent as Fitzgerald’s, so the Longhorns can limit his effectiveness by forcing him off the block prior to the entry passes.

Sophomore swingman Cameron Clark (No. 21) also provides some length for an undersized OU squad, checking in at 6’6″. As a freshman, he showcased a sweet shot and smooth driving ability, but has yet to really click in his sophomore campaign. Although his field goal percentage and scoring averages have dropped off this season, he still chips in some important rebounds for a team that is often overmatched on the glass.

Off the bench, junior guard Carl Blair (No. 14) gives the Sooners another ball-handler in the backcourt. As a sophomore who transferred from the University of New Orleans, Blair ran the point last season and posted the 31st-best assist rate in all of D-I hoops. As the understudy to Grooms this year, Blair has struggled on the offensive end. While he was once a steady point guard who was also a threat to score, he’s stumbled to just a 25.8% mark from the field this season. With Grooms already taking up the role of facilitator who can’t score, it’s tough to justify both he and Blair being on the court at the same time.

Big man C.J. Washington (No. 5) rounds out the core rotation for OU, but he’s only seeing the court for about 11 minutes per game in league play. Washington’s main role is to give Osby and Fitzgerald a breather, but he’s also called on to step up when they find themselves in foul trouble. If the Longhorns can attack the Sooner bigs and draw some whistles, Washington will be forced to play a bigger role in tonight’s game.

Keys to the game

1) Be aggressive – This has become a mainstay in this section of our game previews, but there’s no question that the Longhorn offense looks better when Myck Kabongo, Sheldon McClellan, and Julien Lewis put the ball on the floor and attack the paint. It not only leads to easy buckets inside, but it opens things up for J’Covan Brown off the ball and puts opposing big men in foul trouble. Against a pretty thin Oklahoma team, drawing a ton of whistles and earning points at the charity stripe is a recipe for success.

2) Dominate the glass – Although the Sooners are undersized by Big 12 standards, they are still one of the 25 best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns have typically struggled with giving up second chances to their opponents this year, but did an amazing job keeping K-State off of the offensive glass in the second half of Saturday’s game. The Wildcats are an even better than the Sooners when it comes to reclaiming missed shots, so Texas has proven it is up to the task. If they can keep Oklahoma from extending possessions with offensive boards, the Longhorn defense should be able to shut down the Sooners.

3) Frustrate Pledger – Texas Tech showed how to neutralize OU’s top scorer on Saturday, so you can be sure that the Sooners will be looking to get him going early in this one. If the Longhorns can stick to Pledger and limit his scoring output for a second straight game, it will be tough for OU to find enough points to win. Fitzgerald and Osby can certainly score in bunches, but it’s hard to believe that they can carry their team to victory on their own.

The Texas Longhorns have very little margin for error as they come down the stretch of the 2011-12 season. Almost all major bracket projections have them hovering right on the dreaded bubble, so with just seven regular season games left, there’s little time to make rectify a mistake. This afternoon, the Longhorns have a rare chance to make up for an earlier missed opportunity, as they host the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that narrowly beat them earlier this season.

Currently just 2-8 against the RPI Top 100, Texas desperately needs to add some quality wins to the tournament résumé, something they can do with a victory over K-State this afternoon. The Wildcats were ranked 50th in Monday’s edition of the NCAA’s official RPI rankings, so while a win by Texas would likely knock KSU out of the vaunted Top 50, it would still provide an immediate boost to Texas’ tourney profile. Unfortunately, the Horns haven’t had much luck taking care of the Wildcats at home, as K-State owns a three-game winning streak over the Horns in Austin.

Meet the Wildcats

For a full look at the K-State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas State abused Texas inside early, piling up the fouls on Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes. Big man Clint Chapman managed to avoid the whistles and stay on the court, thanks in large part to the team’s switch to a zone defense. Unfortunately, protecting the Texas frontcourt came at a cost, and Kansas State drilled 7-of-12 from long range in the first half. The Wildcats built a lead as large as 15 late in the first, but the Longhorns managed to erase the entire deficit in less than six minutes. At the break, K-State held just a one-point lead.

The second half was a closely contested affair until the final minutes, when the Wildcats once again stretched their advantage out to seven points with only 74 seconds left. The Longhorns took advantage of terrible free-throw shooting by K-State and executed nearly flawlessly on the offensive end. As a result, Texas had the ball and trailed by just two with 20 seconds left on the clock. When Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown tried a dribble handoff near midcourt, Martavious Irving stripped the ball, leading to a game-clinching dunk by Rodney McGruder.

Since then…

Freshman Angel Rodriguez has taken Manhattan by storm, starting all six games since facing the Longhorns. His secure hold on the point guard duties means that Will Spradling can now slide over to a shooting guard role, which fits his skill set much better. Rodriguez is now also the team’s most consistent threat to drive, and the offense often looks stagnant when he’s on the bench. Fortunately for the Horns, the freshman guard has a tendency to pick up dumb fouls, so that time on the bench comes more frequently than Coach Frank Martin would like. Texas fans may also remember that Rodriguez had issues keeping Kabongo in check during the first meeting, so the Texas point guard could get things going with penetration this afternoon.

Despite the emergence of Rodriguez, K-State has had a rather bumpy road since knocking off the Horns on January 18th, going 4-2 since that meeting. K-State took full advantage of a pair of games against league doormat Texas Tech, knocking off the Red Raiders by an average of 20.5 points in their two games. Between those two dominant performances were a pair of tough losses, however. The Wildcats were edged out at home by Oklahoma in an ugly game two weeks ago, giving the Sooners a season sweep of the Cats. Just three days later, KSU blew a second-half lead of 14 points, falling victim to a Royce White game-winner with 1.8 seconds to go.

Now, this afternoon’s game is as much a must-win for K-State as it is for Texas. After traveling to Austin, the Wildcats host league co-leader Kansas and then face stiff road tests against Baylor and Missouri. While Ken Pomeroy gives the Cats just a 22% cumulative chance to go winless, they are still the underdogs in each game. Kansas State has a strong tournament profile, but a four-game losing streak in February would certainly hurt seeding and could even put them back in the bubble discussion if other teams surge down the stretch. There is no doubt that they will come out motivated for a win this afternoon.

Keys to the game

1) Stay aggressive – The Longhorns did a great job spreading the floor, moving the ball well, and attacking the paint on Monday night against Texas A&M. It was a welcome change for an offense that had oftentimes degenerated into a team of four players waiting for J’Covan Brown to make something happen. As a result, the Longhorns posted 1.169 points per possession against the Aggies, their best offensive efficiency mark since beating up on an overmatched Nicholls State squad in December.

In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Horns were also able to get a piece of the paint thanks to aggressive play by Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan. McClellan scored 19 points against Kansas State, his best output in a conference game. He’s also been hot as of late, scoring 32 points in wins over Tech and A&M, so there is hope he can replicate that performance this afternoon.

K-State used a great team effort to shut down Brown in the first game, throwing different defenders at the guard to keep their own players out of foul trouble. They frustrated J’Covan all night and gave him little space, limiting him to just an 8-of-28 line. If the Wildcats are just as effective against Brown tonight, other Longhorns like Kabongo and McClellan will have to be aggressive to keep the offense from stalling out.

2) Force mistakes – The first time these two teams met, the Longhorns forced the Wildcats into miscues on just 16.7% of their possessions. As a result, K-State had their most efficient offensive performance in conference play. Since then, the Cats have been rather careless with the ball, posting turnover marks of at least 22% in five out of six games. With Rodriguez now at the point, K-State has shown more life on the offensive end, but they have also made some crippling mistakes. If the Horns can actually force some turnovers this time around, they might be able to enact some revenge.

3) Limit second chance points – There’s no way to stop Kansas State from grabbing offensive rebounds, but the Longhorns can at least hope to limit the damage caused by those boards. The Wildcats grabbed more than 51% of their offensive rebounding chances against the Longhorns in Manhattan and turned those second chances into 16 points. Texas needs to not only do a much better job on the defensive glass in this one, but also keep the Wildcats from scoring on easy putbacks when they do reclaim the misses.