I’ve got to hit the road to make it to Lubbock in time for tip-off, so this game preview will likely be a short one. Of course, most previews for re-matches with teams from the Big 12 usually get short shrift, as the detailed player write-ups are done the first time around. So, true to form, I shall link you to the first Texas Tech preview, which gives an in-depth look at the Red Raiders.

The first time these two teams met, Texas absolutely destroyed the Techsters, 73-47. The Longhorns were led by strong guard play by A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin, who combined to score 36 points. Texas also dominated on the glass in the first ballgame, outrebounding the Red Raiders by eleven.

The Pat Knight era

The biggest difference between last game and this one is the face of the man at the head of the bench. Bob Knight retired just days before Tech played Baylor, leaving the destruction in Austin as his last career loss. Since then, son Pat Knight has led the team to a shaky 3-4 record, sinking the team into the muddied pack in the middle of the conference.

Of those three wins, the most impressive was an absolute dismantling of Kansas State in Lubbock. Tech led by more than 20 in the second half, but let the Wildcats crawl back into it before finishing them off by an 84-75 count. The Red Raiders were led by Alan Voskuil, who went 5-for-6 from long range and scored a career-high 30 points. He was almost the entire Tech offense that night, as his seven-minute scoreless stretch in the second half also coincided with the Red Raiders making only three buckets over the same span.

Unless Texas lets Voskuil light them up for 30-plus points today, there shouldn’t be too much to be worried about. But history has shown that the Red Raiders can always jump up and bite teams when playing in the United Spirit Arena, so Rick Barnes and his team can’t be caught buying too much into their own glowing pub.

What to watch for

Control the fouls - The slashing style of play that Tech utilizes can result in a ton of free throws for the Red Raiders and can put key Longhorn players on the bench. Texas seemed to handle it pretty well the first time around, but today they still have to be careful not to hack at the driving guards.

Dominate the glass - As previously mentioned, Texas won the rebounding battle in the first game by a 38-27 tally. If the Longhorns can again dominate on the boards, it will limit the Tech possessions, something which will absolutely kill the chances of upset. Tech is not an efficient offensive team, so if the Longhorns prevent possessions with multiple looks they should be fine.

Turn up the pressure - It might seem ridiculous to say this after the Longhorns have shown such incredible defensive work the last few weeks, but they can’t afford to let up this afternoon. Texas Tech is prone to turnovers, as demonstrated by their shaky ball-handling in Austin and in the loss to K-State. The Longhorns can further limit Red Raider possessions by turning them over, and may even jump-start the transition game.

The Longhorns come into Manhattan, Kansas tonight riding their first-ever seven-game conference winning streak and looking for their first undefeated February since the 1960’s. Standing in their way are the Kansas State Wildcats, a very scary team with a potential National Player of the Year. They have not lost a home game in conference play, and only dropped an overtime game against Oregon in their non-conference home slate.

By the numbers

The Wildcats have a fairly efficient offense that can really push the tempo. According to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, K-State is the 18th-fastest team in the country and the 17th-most efficient. Their best statistical measure, though, comes on the offensive glass, where they are the top rated team in the nation. Texas has occasionally struggled with keeping big teams from getting second chances in the half-court, so they’ll have to keep K-State off the glass in this one.

The 1-2 punch

By now, everyone has heard of Michael Beasley, the man who could be the second-consecutive freshman to win National Player of the Year. Against Baylor on Saturday, he scored a league-record 44 points against the Bears in a losing effort. He’s an incredibly tough player to defend because he can score in the post, knock down mid-range jumpers, and sink the three-pointer with ease. Even when the D is tight on B-Easy, he often can launch lightning-quick pull-back Js with little space. The Longhorns are going to have their hands full with Beasley, but perhaps could learn from the box-and-one look that the Huskers threw at him on Wednesday night, in a game where they held him to a mere mortal line of 17 points and 10 boards.

Bill Walker is the next-best player on Kansas State, but he’s more than used to being second fiddle despite his great talent. In high school, he was the second-in-command to O.J. Mayo and is more than happy chipping in double-digit points with the defenses keyed on his high-powered teammates. The world-famous Towel Pisser is averaging 17 points and 7 boards per game, and his play has reached a new level in Big 12 games. Although he claims he can’t jump quite as high as he did prior to last year’s ACL injury, he still has a sweet three-point stroke and can quickly drive and dunk on defenders who over-pursue on the perimeter.

What to look for

1) Can Texas hang with the ‘Cats on the glass? They’ve looked really good in the rebounding department the last few weeks, but K-State is as solid as they get. Texas cannot afford to give up extra possessions to Martin’s bunch, and they also cannot afford to settle for perimeter shots of their own without crashing the boards.

2) How will Texas respond to the crowd? The Longhorns need to come out firing on all cylinders and cannot afford to get behind early. Reports from our KSU friends say that the student line is a bit soft this week, which is to be expected following the disappointing road losses to Nebraska and Baylor. But the fact of the matter is that Bramlage Coliseum is one of the most underrated home court advantages in the country, and it will still be rocking tonight. Texas cannot afford to let the crowd fuel the team like the Missouri fans did back in January.

3) What will the role players do? Beast-ley and Walker will both get their points, but it’s a question of how the rest of the ‘Cats do tonight. The Longhorns are a high-scoring team that can handle a 30+ game from Beasley, but if Clent Stewart, Jacob Pullen, and Blake Young play over their heads offensively, Texas could have problems. Rick Barnes’ team obviously must work hard to defend Beasley, but they can’t devote so much attention to him that the rest of the ‘Cats win the game.

This game is going to be the biggest test left for Texas, and was a game that I had penciled in as a loss earlier in the season. The recent play of the Longhorns has made it look much more winnable, but it is still going to be 40 minutes of hell. Vegas has the Wildcats as 3.5 point favorites, while Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 4-point K-State win. If by chance Texas can pull this one out, it is only more fodder for those pushing the Longhorns as a 1-seed in the Big Dance.

Action tips at 8 P.M., so if the Big East decides to finish their game on time, you can catch the action on ESPN.

Texas faces its second rival in a week when Oklahoma comes to town today, hoping to snap a four-game losing streak to the Longhorns. This has recently been a rivalry with runs of domination, as Rick Barnes and Co. have won nine out of the last thirteen against the Sooners, who had previously taken eight in a row under Kelvin Sampson. But for Jeff Capel and Oklahoma, today is not about reversing history, but rather trying to solidify a bubble résumé with a victory over a Top 10 team.

The last time these two teams met, Texas had just been embarrassed at A&M before securing a comeback win at home over Baylor. Many fans were worried about the road game in Norman, and the early play from the Longhorns seemed to reinforce those fears. Texas shot only 25% in the first half, but trailed by only four at the break. A methodical second half and solid outside shooting from the guards propelled the Longhorns to a 10-point win in front of a booing crowd.

The biggest difference between the last match-up and this one is the return of Longar Longar, who missed the first game with what was described as a stress fracture. As we discussed in the preview of the February 6th game, depth in the post is a problem for Oklahoma. Longar’s return to the lineup will certainly improve that problem, as he provided 24 minutes off the bench against Baylor on Tuesday and might even work his way back into the starting lineup today.

For a look at the rest of the Sooner starters, you’ll want to re-read the first OU game preview. Tony Neysmith is the only player not mentioned that could have a significant impact today, as the freshman guard has started the last three games in place of Longar. He’s only averaging about six minutes and three points per game over that stretch, so he’s not a huge threat. But adding him to the mix gives the Sooners a chance to play with a smaller lineup, further protecting their lack of depth down low.

Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 10-point Texas win and giving the Horns an 83% chance of victory, while Vegas has UT as a 9-point favorite. Today’s game is sold out, so folks in middle America can check it out on ABC, while those on the coasts are stuck with Oregon/UCLA. Post-game will be coming later tonight, but in the meantime enjoy a day filled with great mid-major tussles, a 1-2 showdown, and the Longhorns wrecking the Sooners yet again.

Preview from Burnt Orange Nation

Nineteen days ago, Texas A&M was absolutely reeling, having lost three of four after a nearly pristine start to their season. Only a narrow win in Stillwater kept the Aggies from stumbling into a home date with rival Texas on an ugly four-game losing streak. But the first eight minutes of the game that night went completely in Texas A&M’s favor, and they obliterated the Longhorns for an easy 80-63 win.

Since then, Texas has won five straight games, including Monday’s home upset of Kansas and road wins against OU and Baylor. And until Saturday’s fumble against Oklahoma State, the Aggies were just as hot, winning their next three after the dismantling of their rivals. The hot February for the top two teams in Texas has helped them separate from the pack in the Big 12, putting the Longhorns just a half-game out of first while the Aggies are hanging on to the coveted 4th-place spot in the conference — and the tournament bye that comes with it.

Lost amidst the ugly start to the January 30th game is the fact that Texas A&M and Texas played a pretty even game from that point on. As I mentioned in the game preview of that match-up, A&M is a very turnover-prone team, and there was a stretch in the first half where they made unforced error after unforced error. In front of a rowdy Texas crowd, there’s a chance that the Ags could get even more rattled tonight and make more mistakes. Don’t forget — this Aggie team is only 3-3 on the road, with the three wins coming against the bottom half of the Big 12.

As we look forward to tonight’s game, I feel that the biggest factor in the re-match will be the recent emergence of Gary Johnson. He is now a great offensive weapon in the paint, and the combo of Johnson and Connor Atchley in the hi-low game is really a treat to watch. When these two teams met at the end of January, the key post presence for the Longhorns was Dexter Pittman, while Johnson played only four ineffective minutes. With the addition of GJ’s offense and his work on the glass, the outlook for Texas is much rosier this time around.

A huge problem that teams face when playing Texas A&M is the pick-your-poison defensive quandary that their inside-out attack gives opponents. While a lot of Baylor’s ineffectiveness from behind the arc on Saturday was a result of their shooters going cold, the Texas three-point defense has improved tremendously over the last few weeks. If the Longhorns can shut down Dominique Kirk and Josh Carter — who was 4-of-7 behind the arc in College Station — it will make things a lot easier for the defense inside.

I linked it once earlier in this game preview, but take the time to go back and check out the preview I wrote of the first Texas/Texas A&M game to get an in-depth look at the Aggie squad and their style of play. Tonight is certainly going to be a hard-fought game, but Ken Pomeroy is predicting a three-point Longhorn victory, while Vegas likes Texas by 4.5 points.

Tonight’s game is sold out, so if you’re without a ticket you can tune in to ESPN or ESPNHD for the action or plop down $12 to watch it on the big screen in selected theatres throughout Texas (Plug in your zip code here to look for cinemas in your area.) See the rest of you at the Drum tonight.

Burnt Orange Nation game preview
Texas Sports game preview

Texas travels to Waco today, riding high after the home-court upset of Kansas on Monday night. The win was the fourth-straight for the Longhorns and their seventh victory in the last eight games. Texas also has a much longer streak hanging in the balance tonight, as they have won all 21 games against Baylor since Rick Barnes arrived in Austin for the 1998-99 season.

For an in-depth look at the Baylor players, you can re-read the game preview from the February 2nd match-up between these two teams, a game which Texas won by an 80-72 count. That loss was the start of a rough February for the Bears, who have since lost two of three. The ensuing game was an 80-72 home victory for Baylor over Texas Tech in Pat Knight’s first game as head coach. But since then, the Bears have dropped a pair of road games against Kansas and Oklahoma State, and are more than ready to return to the friendly confines of the Ferrell Center.

Just a week ago, there was a clear dividing line in the conference standings, with five teams lumped at the top and the other seven teams wallowing in mediocrity. But with Baylor’s recent dive, they now find themselves caught firmly between the two groups, and a loss today could drop them into the muddled middle of the conference.

It’s a “Gold Out” today in the sold-out Ferrell Center, so if you don’t have tickets you’ll probably want to plop down in front of the television. This ought to be another great match-up of two solid backcourts, and it’s one you won’t want to miss.

Not a whole lot of time for the preview today, but suffice it to say that Texas has its work cut out for it tonight against Kansas. The Jayhawks run ten deep, and practically every one of those players could start for any D-1 school in the country. The biggest changes between this year’s team and last year’s squad are the improved play of Sasha Kaun and Darnell Jackson. The added threat provided by these two down low means that defenses can no longer key on Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, and Sherron Collins. The Texas defense is going to have a tough time guarding all of the scoring threats on the Kansas roster.

If you are looking for a way to beat Kansas, there isn’t much data to draw on. With only one loss — on the road to Kansas State — the Jayhawks have often seemed flawless. But Kansas also struggled with Colorado and against Arizona, so with the help of Ken Pomeroy we can look for the common thread. According to Pomeroy’s metrics, their opponents effective FG% was above 50% in all three of those games. The eFG% measure gives added weight to three-point shots, and that seems to be a good strategy against the high-pressure, turnover-forcing D of the Jayhawks. In the games against K-State, Colorado, and Arizona, the Jayhawks gave up 31 three-pointers. Even against Baylor on Saturday, Kansas allowed 12-of-29 shooting from behind the arc. While Texas will certainly need big games from its role players in this one, the Horns will have their best shot if they are knocking down the trifectas.

Andrew from Burnt Orange Nation pointed out in his Iowa State wrap that Texas bench play is going to be huge today. Kansas is a much deeper squad, and this is only their second game since last Monday’s win over Missouri. The Longhorns had to make two tough road trips and played an extra five minutes against ISU on Saturday. The guards are definitely going to get tired in this one, so they need to slow down the tempo and not play into the Jayhawks’ game plan.

That’s about all I’ve got time for now, as the power source outside the Erwin Center is turned off today and the battery on the laptop is running low. For a great pre-game, check out another post from Andrew previewing the match-ups. Tip is at roughly 8 PM on ESPN, which will be airing the game in beautiful hi-def. See you back here tomorrow morning for the post-mortem.

On Wednesday, Texas started off its brutal three-week march of death on the right foot, winning a road game in Norman. Today they face a team that doesn’t look to be threatening based solely on record, but the truth is that the Iowa State Cyclones can be a dangerous ball club. And even when you look past the teams themselves and just examine the history, you find that the Longhorns are only 2-5 all-time in Hilton Coliseum, a gym that can be incredibly loud and unnerving when ‘Clone fans fill it up.

This is something of a “must-win” for the Horns, as that death march gets only tougher from here. The next five games for Texas are against teams all ranked 38th or better according to Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations. And while Iowa State has won all three home games in Big 12 play, this is the most winnable game over the next three weeks for Texas.

By the numbers

The Cyclones’ offense is fairly anemic, but their defense is solid enough that they can grind out wins without scoring many points. That defense has been even better at home for Iowa State, as they’ve held opponents to only 58 points per game in conference play. For comparison, they’ve allowed 76 points per game on the road in conference games, although that stat is still a little inflated as two of the three teams included were Kansas and Kansas State.

Iowa State also plays really good defense without letting its opponents get to the line. On the season, they have taken 424 shots from the charity stripe, yet only sent opponents there 348 times. According to Pomeroy, their defensive free-throw rate (FT attempts/FG attempts) is 15th-best in all of NCAA basketball. While this would seem to be a good thing for a Texas team that shoots poorly from the line, it also means that a huge part of D.J. Augustin’s game will be missing from his repertoire. If he can’t drive to the rim and draw fouls, the defense could be less-inclined to help, limiting the number of open looks that D.J. can dish for.

Texas fans can expect a slow, grind-it-out game from the Cyclones. Their tempo is ranked in the bottom-third of NCAA D-1 schools, which allows them to keep the score low enough to steal victories. With the number of possessions limited, Texas cannot afford to jack up ill-advised shots early in possessions, and they absolutely must crash the offensive glass. If Iowa State can somehow keep the Longhorn offense within the 60-point range, they could have a shot today.

The starters

The key to the Iowa State offense is guard Wesley Johnson, a Texas kid who got away. He leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game, and the Cyclones often look like they’ve forgotten how to score when he’s not out there. He missed the beginning of the season with a foot injury and then re-aggravated it in the victory over Colorado, causing him to miss the game against Nebraska earlier this week. The Cyclones sputtered with Johnson in street clothes, and struggled even more when big man Jiri Hubalek was also on the bench.

Johnson is a difficult match-up for Texas, because he’s an off-guard who is 6-foot, 7-inches. Yes, you read that right. He’s got a full eight inches on the Longhorns’ own 2-guard, A.J. Abrams, meaning that Damion James will likely be tasked with guarding the prolific scorer. But when James is on the bench, other Longhorns will have a tough time with him. Gary Johnson gives up an inch or two, while Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, or Connor Atchley aren’t agile enough to keep up with Johnson. Wes is going to get his points in this game, but it’s a question of how well the Longhorns can shut down the other role players for Iowa State.

The other key to Iowa State’s unsteady offense is the aforementioned Jiri Hubalek. He’s a big man from the Czech Republic who can give ‘Clone fans heart attacks. While he gets his points down low, he often fumbles the pass or rebounds, and sometimes misses point-blank shots that he has no business missing. He’s fitting in more comfortably with Coach McDermott’s system now, although early clashes with the new coach nearly led to Hubalek quitting after Wayne Morgan’s departure. Hubalek will definitely score in the paint, but the Texas bigs have faced much tougher competition down low, and they should fare well against him.

The player I’m most excited to see today is freshman Craig Brackins. He can do a little bit of everything, as he’s lethal from long range, can attack off the dribble, and has the body to play down low when he feels like it. If the Cyclones do happen to pull off an upset in this one, it could be Brackins getting hot from outside that makes the difference. Although he still needs some work, the biggest knock on his game is that at 6-10, he hangs out too far from the paint. His team is getting out-rebounded on the season, and they need his length inside. So far, he’s only grabbing five boards per game and that number really needs to go up for the ‘Clones to see more success.

The point guard for Coach McDermott is former hometown kid and former walk-on Bryan Peterson. He’s a good floor-general who doesn’t score very often, but he has a nice shot from outside when he takes it. On the season, he’s only 35.8% from behind the arc, but he is still not a guy you want to leave open. He’s not going to get the kinds of assists that Augustin racks up when driving to the lane, but Peterson keeps the offense running and is a really great story for announcers to talk about when their games are out of hand.

Rashon Clark is a senior forward for the Cyclones, and he’s a consistent, hard-nosed kid. He’s yet another Iowa State player who is really long, and is averaging nine points and five boards this year. Sometimes it seems like he doesn’t communicate as well on defense as the other Iowa State players, but his long arms make it easier for him to catch up from behind the play on the occasions when he gets out of position. He’s a quick slasher and has absolutely incredible hops, so if gets out in the open court, expect him to bring the house down with a monster jam.

Off the bench

Although Brackins is the freshman who starts for Iowa State, Diante Garrett is the point guard of the future in Ames. He’s got a ton of talent, but still needs to develop his body and his game for the college level. I have a feeling that in future years, fans of Texas and other Big 12 schools are going to be frustrated quite a few times by the Garrett/Brackins combo. For now, he’s earning a nice chunk of minutes and learning on the job. He doesn’t score often because his shooting percentage is always dipping towards the Mendoza line, but he’s got good basketball IQ and commands the floor when he’s in there.

The most important guy off the bench could be Alex Thompson, though. He’s another 6′10″ forward, but he’s an absolute presence on defense. He’s been playing pretty well in conference games, but really showcased what kind of a game he could have with significant minutes when the Cyclones faced Oregon State. Yes, I realize that the Beavers are abysmal, but Thompson shot 55% from the field and had a 12/5 line in his 30 minutes on the court. Like Brackins, he should really rebound better for a guy his size, but when he’s in the game he definitely makes opponents think twice about driving the lane.

Sean Haluska eats some minutes at the guard position, but he’s more famous for having a talented brother than for anything he’s done thus far in Ames. Other than that, Coach McDermott throws in a few minutes here and there for the rest of his bloated bench, but none make any contributions of note.

What to look for

Texas is going to have a tough time getting fast breaks going against the ‘Clones. Their transition D is solid, as the team gets back in a hurry to not only cut off the fast break, but get set up in position to prevent a secondary break, as well. If Texas can force some turnovers, they should certainly try to grab the easy points, but should not force the issue if the Cyclones cut it off. As I previously mentioned, possessions will be limited in this one, so the Horns can’t throw away the extra ones by pressing too hard against a good transition D.

The resiliency that the Horns showed on Wednesday night in Norman will also be big here. Iowa State is a great defensive team, and Texas could start out shooting poorly once again as a result. They need to keep pressing on like they did against the Sooners, and eventually their talent should win out. The nice thing about Iowa State’s slow-down, grind-it-out game is that even if they grab a lead, the Longhorns should always be within striking distance. Over a forty-minute game, I like Texas’ odds to end up on top.

With the game being more of a half-court affair, will fans be treated to more time from Dexter Pittman? With Coach Barnes bringing Damion James off the bench in the last two, Pittman, Chapman, and Wangmene have seen more minutes. This could be a chance for Pittman to eat up some PT and chip in some points down low against the Cyclone frontcourt.

On a related note, will this mark the return of James to the starting lineup? Nobody else really matches up with Wes Johnson, so leaving him out there against a Longhorn defense without DaMo to start the game could prove costly. I’d like to see James back in the starting five and hassling Johnson for 36+ minutes. This also leads to the point that James cannot afford to get in foul trouble in this one.

For another look at the match-ups, check out the interview that CrossCyed of Clone Chronicles gave the good folks at Burnt Orange Nation today. CC is a quality blogger and knows this team very well, so be sure to give it a look.

While this one is on ABC, it’s a split-national telecast with the Washington State/USC tilt airing at the same time. Check your local listings to see if its on in your area. If it’s not, you can check it out on ESPN360.com, although I’ve never messed with that and can’t really tell you how it works.

I may try to head all the way back to Austin tonight, so the post-game might take a while in coming. If I happen to stop somewhere for the night, I’ll try to tap it out then. Otherwise, look for new content on Sunday evening.

Texas returns home after a lopsided mid-week road loss to Texas A&M, hoping to rebound against Baylor this afternoon. In previous years, that would be just what the doctor ordered — beat up on the Bears, pad the stats, and move on to another conference test. But not any longer. This Baylor team is one of the league’s best and is the first one in school history to play Texas with a national ranking in hand.

Evidence of Scott Drew’s turnaround on the Waco campus could be seen last season, as Baylor took Texas down to the wire in all three games last season. That included a near-upset in the Big 12 Tournament where the Bears built a 20-point lead in the second half, but were overcome by the heroics of Kevin Durant and Craig Winder. This year, close enough isn’t good enough for Baylor, and they want to announce their legitimacy with a huge road win in Austin.

By the numbers

Baylor is a very solid team on both sides of the ball, with both offense and defense better on the perimeter. The Bears have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.3, while holding opponents to 93.4 points per 100 possessions. Baylor finds a lot of success in both departments by forcing turnovers and pushing the break, as 25% of their offense this season comes off of the transition game, according to Coach Drew.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears maintain great ball control with a turnover percentage (TO/possessions) that is 16th best in the entire nation. Scott Drew starts three solid guards and has two exciting younger ones that come off the bench, so forcing the issue will not be easy for the Texas defense.

Those guards are also great at guarding the three-point line, and they will make it difficult for D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams to get going from long range. Baylor can be absolutely abused inside, though, as Oklahoma proved in their win on Saturday. The Sooner post play was so troublesome that the Bears switched to a 2-3 zone to stop the bleeding, so if Texas can establish inside play perhaps they can open up their outside shooters this way.

The starters

Austin native Curtis Jerrells is the team’s leading scorer and one of the three excellent guards for the Bears. He’s started all 19 games for Baylor this season and averages 14.4 points per game. As is the case with all of the BU backcourt players, he’s quick with the ball, has great handles, and can attack the rim off the bounce. He’s a pretty good shooter from long range, too, but is overshadowed by some even better sharpshooters on the roster.

Aaron Bruce is benefiting from a more balanced Baylor attack this year. Without having to carry the entire team on his back, he has exhibited better shot selection and become an even more efficient scorer. He only plays 25 minutes a game this year, leaving him with fresh legs late in the games. He’s the best three-point shooting starter for the Bears, knocking them down at a scary 42.4% clip.

The other starting guard for Coach Drew is Henry Dugat, who is averaging 12.1 points per game coming into this one. Like Jerrells and Bruce, Dugat can attack the paint and score, or shoot it in your eye from behind the arc, where he’s hitting at 37% on the year.

The key big man down low is Kevin Rogers, and he is picking up the trash for Baylor in the paint. He’s the team’s leading scorer and seems to quietly rack up his points each game on putbacks and tip-ins. The Bears don’t have a ton off assists on the books, but the ones they often record come after one of the guards draws a collapsing defense in the lane and leaves the bigs wide open down low under the rim.

Josh Lomers is improving in his second season on the Brazos, but he still looks a bit raw. He reminds me a lot of Connor Atchley in his first two years, in that the kid clearly has potential but isn’t fully realizing it yet. Lomers was an absolute stud back at Boerne High, but the post players in high-level D1 basketball are a far cry from the poor kids he was abusing back in mid-level UIL play.

Off the bench

Tweety Carter is the smallest guy on the court for Baylor, and possibly the fastest. He can knock it down from anywhere, and was the leading all-time scorer in Louisiana high school history. His three-point percentage is a sky-high 43.3%, but teams that play up in his jersey will find him blowing by for an easy layup.

The other solid guard off the bench is freshman LaceDarius Dunn, another long-range dead-eye who is also a 43.3% shooter behind the arc. I know it sounds like a broken record, but Dunn is another quick one who is going to cause problems for the tired Texas guards when he comes in well-rested off the bench.

Delbert Simpson and Mamadou Diene are key reserves in the Baylor frontcourt, with walk-on Mark Shepherd earning some minutes as well. All three are still pretty unrefined, although Diene’s post defense can change the flow of a game. He’s a really long kid down under the rim, and he loves to block shots with authority. Offensively, he’s not much to write home about, but if Texas doesn’t stay on the boards, he’s going to get some garbage buckets.

Shepherd does all the little things right, much like former high school teammate Ian Mooney. He moves well without the ball, sets good screens, and hustles all over the place. He only averages two points a game, and if you see him shoot, you’ll understand why. But he’s something of a glue guy when the starters need a breather, and he’s fundamentally sound.

Simpson, a JuCo transfer, has really soft hands in the paint but often seems a little too excited with the ball. He’ll force shots that aren’t there instead of looking for the open man, and sometimes shuffles his feet in his rush to get the ball off. If Texas emphasizes the post game for a third-straight contest, he’ll likely be relied on for minutes when the Baylor bigs get into foul trouble.

What to look for

The key in this one is going to be limiting the Baylor three-pointers. For a Texas team who doesn’t like to guard the perimeter with any consistency, this will be a tall order. The Bears can quickly take the home crowd out of it with a long-range barrage, and they have made a ton of runs from deep deficits this year simply by riding the three-ball. Texas cannot afford to give up open looks downtown, and need to force Rogers and Diene to beat them down low.

For Texas, they need to try to expose the weakness inside for Baylor. Dexter Pittman should get a bunch of minutes again and needs to be fed the ball to take advantage of the Bears’ post D. If Rick Barnes doesn’t follow through on his threats to bench Damion James, DaMo will need to crash the glass and give another double-double performance.

And finally, if this game is close, Texas needs to improve from the line. The Bears lead the Big 12 from the line, hitting 73% of their attempts at the charity stripe. As has been well documented, the Horns haven’t been able to consistently hit free throws since early December. If the game is decided by a few points, this free throw disparity could unfortunately give the edge to the Bears. And when you consider that all three of the Baylor losses have been by seven points or less, the chances are good for another close one today.

As of 5 P.M. yesterday, there were still 1,000 tickets left for this one. I suspect that walk-up crowds will make it a sell-out, but if you’re thinking of catching the game, please come down to the Drum. If you happen to stay home, check out the affiliate list that’s linked at the top of this post to see which of your local networks will be carrying this ESPN+ telecast.

The cliché holds that in a rivalry game, you can throw out the records, the stats, and the trends. And I’m with you — I cringe every time I hear an announcer trot this out. But the reason we hear the damned saying so much is because it’s actually pretty accurate. So forget that Texas A&M has lost three of four, and that the Longhorns haven’t won in their last three trips to Reed Arena. To steal another oft-used phrase, once the ball is tipped, this is going to be an old-fashioned grudge match.

By the numbers

So it’s pretty ridiculous of me to tell you to throw out the numbers and then proceed to give you those numbers. But that’s the format of these game previews, so we’re going to stick with “tradition.” I hear that’s pretty important in College Station.

As mentioned, A&M has lost three of four games coming into this one. They overcame a late deficit in Stillwater on Saturday to avoid a devastating fourth-straight loss, holding the Pokes without a field goal in the final eight minutes. While the Aggies have struggled on the road, they’ve dominated against their creampuff schedule at home the last few seasons. This year, they are sporting a 13-1 mark in Reed Arena.

Mark Turgeon’s team is ranked in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. While last year’s Aggie squad was ranked in the top ten of both categories when they hosted the Horns, this year’s team will still be a tough out.

The Aggies have a huge roster and ran about twelve deep through most of the non-conference slate. Since entering Big 12 play, Turgeon has trimmed the fat and now gives significant minutes to seven or eight of his players.

The starters

For a Texas team that struggles with guarding the perimeter, Josh Carter is a huge concern. Although he’s been in a slump so far in conference play, Carter led the NCAA in three-point percentage last season and is second all-time in the Big 12 for the same stat. In his last four games, Josh is 6-of-25 from behind the arc, but tends to heat up when facing the Longhorns. It will be key to maintain pressure on this difference-maker.

Bryan Davis has replaced DeAndre Jordan as a starter in the last few games, and he’s responding with quality numbers. He’s the second-leading scorer on the team in Big 12 play and is eating up a ton of minutes down low for Coach Turg. Davis isn’t going to blow by anybody or pull out stunning post moves, but he’s a smart player who earns his points and keeps his team in it.

Along with Davis, the Aggies rely on Joseph Jones down low in their inside-out attack. A&M is a really scary team when their post players are scoring, because defenses who try to sell out to stop Jones, Davis, and Jordan are often burned by wide-open three-point shooters. We all know that Jones is prone to picking up a ton of fouls, but he’s also the team’s leading rebounder in conference play.

Donald Sloan is likely the fastest guy on the floor for A&M, but lately he’s had problems hanging on to the basketball. Over the last four games, he’s turned over the ball a nauseating 17 times. As long as the Longhorns can stay in front of Sloan and keep him from flying by them on the drive, they should be able to minimize his impact on the game. And if they can force his hand, it could result in a few fast-break buckets for the visitors.

This year, Dominique Kirk is running the point for the Ags. It’s certainly not a natural position for him, and the Aggies are definitely seeing a drop-off from last year’s stud point Acie Law. But Kirk is generally doing a good job holding down the fort and has only turned it over four times in conference play. He’s also a threat from long range, hitting 47.8% of his threes on the season. As with Carter, the Horns will have to keep an eye on Kirk to make sure he doesn’t key a huge run for the Aggies.

The bench

Freshman sensation DeAndre Jordan has cooled off considerably once the rigors of Big 12 play began, and he’s even starting games on the bench. Jordan is a huge kid who gets his share of putbacks and dunks, and his presence in the lane helps the Aggie defense tremendously. He’s also a great passer who can zing it over defenders from his high vantage point, and that is a boon to the transition game and the A&M inside-out attack. But lately he’s having a few more of those “freshman mistakes,” picking up fouls quickly, traveling, and making dumb turnovers. The Longhorns will certainly have their hands full with DeAndre, but if he makes his share of typical miscues, it could negate the advantages he provides.

Derrick Roland is a guard with quick hands that can really force the issue when he gets in the face of the Longhorn guards. Nicknamed D-Roll, he’s only seeing about ten minutes per game in conference play, but can provide a great spark of the bench.

Big man Chinemelu “Junior” Elonu is another guy who can provide energy for Coach Turgeon off the bench, but his minutes have been significantly limited in the last few games. He won’t score much, but he gets after it on the boards and is one of those players with the intangibles that makes you think he’s going to be a solid contributer before his four years are up.

What to look for

In their three losses, the one constant according to Ken Pomeroy was an inordinately high free throw rate for their opponents. Texas Tech exploited this by attacking the A&M big men, and Texas would be wise to do the same. The Longhorns seemed to be practicing this against the Red Raiders, making a conscious effort to feed the post. Hopefully the Texas bigs will be able to perform at the same level tonight against a very talented Aggie front line.

On the other side of the charity stripe, the Aggies have also struggled tremendously from the line. As a team, they are hitting only 61% of their free throws, with big man Jordan shooting a pitiful 38% from the line on the year. I would love to see Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, and Dexter Pittman playing very physical defense inside tonight. Damion James and Connor Atchley can’t afford to get in foul trouble, as their agility will cause problems for A&M’s big men. But if the bench warmers can force the Aggies to earn their points from the line, the Longhorns will benefit tremendously.

The other big weakness for the Aggies is ball control, as they have turned it over 15 times a game since entering conference play. Texas Tech forced a ton of turnovers in their win, and the up-tempo Longhorn attack would love to start a bunch of breaks off of Aggie miscues. While A&M is less likely to get rattled and make a ton of mistakes in front of their home crowd, Texas should definitely pressure Davis and Sloan, who both are famous for losing the handle.

The Aggies are favored by three points heading into this one — not that we’d ever condone gambling — and that sounds about right. This game should be a really good one, and you’ve got to give A&M the edge in front of their devoted fans. Be sure to tune in to the action on ESPN2, and check back tomorrow morning for the post-game.

Tonight the Longhorns return home after a long break, hoping to continue the momentum they’ve created with back-to-back conference wins against Colorado and Oklahoma State. The opponent this time is Texas Tech, a team that has been up-and-down all season but notched an impressive home win over Texas A&M when they were ranked 9th in the country.

Since Rick Barnes joined the staff at Texas, the Longhorns have absolutely dominated the Red Raiders. Texas is 18-2 against Tech in the Barnes era, including wins in all nine home games. In this one, the Horns are favored by 11.5 points, and honestly there doesn’t seem to be much hope for the Techsters to snap the streak. Of course, the Aggie fans probably didn’t expect to stumble up in Lubbock, either…

By the numbers

Tech wins its games by playing solid defense, but unfortunately they often don’t score enough points to end up on top. Their defensive efficiency is ranked 30th in the country, and they are allowing 68 points per game to conference opponents, including the up-tempo Missouri Tigers.

The problem for Texas Tech is that they likely won’t be able to outscore the Horns, even if they execute on defense. Tech’s offense is centered around constant motion and screening, with most of their shots coming within 10-12 feet. Most of the teams who will beat Texas are ones who can take advantage of their poor three-point defense, but Knight’s system is not one that is built to do this.

One advantage of Knight’s motion offense is that it draws a ton of fouls, which could cause problems for a thin Texas bench. The Longhorns don’t have much depth, so if any of the core players get into foul trouble, significant minutes will have to come from the likes of Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and J.D. Lewis.

The Tech starters

There is a lack of a true leader on this team, but if you’re pressed to pick a go-to guy for Tech, it’s got to be Martin Zeno. The senior loves to attack off the dribble and has improved his scoring as the Red Raiders entered conference play. His mid-range game is solid, so the Horns will have more success if they can keep him to the perimeter.

Freshman John Roberson is making an early impact coming out of Plano. He’s an incredibly quick guard, so he fits well in Knight’s system. If Justin Mason is tasked with trying to shut down Zeno, the guard who is stuck with Roberson is going to have a tough assignment.

Damir Suljagic is the main man down low for Tech this season, but that’s not saying much. He can play good defense in the post, but shouldn’t draw too much attention with the ball. On a small team that struggles with rebounding, his height makes him one of their key players by default.

Against Mizzou, Alan Voskuil earned the starting nod despite having slow first halves in almost all of his games. Coach Knight has attributed this to a lack of effort on Voskuil’s part, but his talent is undeniable. He’s the leading three-point shooter in the Big 12, hitting over 50% of his attempts. He almost single-handedly defeated UTEP from behind the arc, and if Texas leaves him open from long range, he could be the difference tonight, too.

Charlie Burgess is having a bit of an off year for the Red Raiders, but is still a threat to score when he attacks the paint off the dribble. He’s the third attacking guard in Knight’s system, but at only 6′1″, he’s not a bad match-up for the Longhorn backcourt.

Off the bench

Sophomore Trevor Cook has earned some starts down low for Tech, but against an undersized Texas team, I don’t forsee Knight going with a big lineup. Forward Mike Singletary is only 6′5″, but can still post up and is developing nicely for Coach Knight. Esmir Rizvic missed most of last year’s conference season after OU’s Longar Longar went Bobby Brown on his eye socket and hasn’t seen a ton of minutes this season. He’s not a phenomenal rebounder, but if Tech is getting killed on the boards, he might be given some more playing time.

The big finish

Tonight’s contest is already a sellout, but the scalpers are lined up on Red River working their game. If you’re outside of Austin, check the affiliate list linked at the top of the page to see if it’s on in your area. Folks with ESPN Full Court can also pick up the game, while the Longhorn Radio Network will be broadcasting Craig Way’s play-by-play throughout the state.