11.25.14
Posted by Ryan Clark at 6:57AM

St. Francis Red Flash (2-2) at #7/9 Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 7 P.M. CT | TV: Longhorn Network
Vegas: OFF | KenPom: Texas, 69-50 (98%)

Fresh off a championship in the 2K Classic, the Texas Longhorns return to action tonight at the Frank Erwin Center, having climbed three spots in this week’s AP poll. With tough road games coming in the next two weekends against UConn and Kentucky, the two teams who played in last year’s national championship game, Texas will be taking it easy against some lighter competition tonight when they square off with St. Francis.

The Longhorns will be without point guard Isaiah Taylor for a second consecutive game, with the most recent reports now labeling his timetable for return as “indefinite.” On Friday, ESPN’s Jeff Goodman quoted sources that projected Taylor’s absence to be four to six weeks. Either way, it’s clear that Taylor will be unavailable for the team’s biggest non-conference games in Storrs and Lexington, and the sophomore could see his rehab stretch into the beginning of conference play.

Javan Felix will be the man tasked with filling Taylor’s sneakers, and although he has more than enough experience as the starting point guard from the 2012-13 campaign, it will be a change of roles for Felix. The New Orleans native played more of a combo guard role on last year’s team, and was asked to take open shots any time he saw them. Felix complied, taking more than 29% of his team’s shots when he was on the floor, by far the highest percentage on the team, and one that ranked him 138th nationally.

With this year’s team having such a dominant presence inside, Felix will have to serve as much more of a facilitator in Taylor’s absence. He will also need to ensure that his shot selection is judicious enough to make opponents think twice about packing the lane. Last year, Felix shot just 35.8% from the floor, so indiscriminate shooting at that same rate will only serve to encourage opponents to sag off and neutralize the Texas advantage down low.

By the numbers

St. Francis University — not to be confused with St. Francis College, which aso plays in the Northeast Conference — comes into tonight’s game with a 2-2 mark, having notched one of those wins against Division III Keystone College.

The Red Flash have one of the most experienced teams in the country, having returned all five starters from last year’s team. Ken Pomeroy shows the Red Flash as having a team average of 2.07 years of experience, the 58th-highest average in the country. This is a group that has played together for a long time and is very familiar with each other, but they’re also very familiar with losing. Last year’s team logged a 10-21 mark, and the program has won just 30 total games in the last four seasons.

St. Francis has struggled with turnovers
(Photo Credit: Aaron Doster/USA Today Sports)

This year, the numbers are not pretty for the Red Flash. Offensively, their adjusted efficiency ranks as 44th-worst in Division I. That low number is driven by an inability to control the basketball and to win second chances with their very small roster. St. Francis has turned it over on 28% of their possessions, and have only reclaimed 19.8% of their missed shots. Those percentages are ranked 10th-worst and 11th-worst in Division I this season.

With the offense struggling so mightly, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that the Red Flash like to slow things down. The team is averaging an adjusted 63.8 possessions per game, one of the 50 slowest paces in D-I.

Despite being severely undersized, St. Francis has managed to perform admirably on the defensive end. The Red Flash are allowing an adjusted 0.990 points per possession, just slightly worse than the national average. They are actually forcing a turnover on roughly one out of every four possessions, keeping opponents off the glass with the 28th-best defensive rebounding rate in the country, and are not sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 23.1% is currently ranked 21st nationally.

Meet the Red Flash

Although Texas has a handful of games against low majors that will likely be severe mismatches, this will probably be the one with the biggest disparity in size. The Red Flash have just one player listed at 6’7″ who plays significant minutes, and a trio of 6’6″ guys have seen time so far this year. Beyond that, there’s a sudden drop-off in size, with two members of the core rotation checking in under six-foot.

One of those diminutive starters is 5’11” sophomore point guard Malik Harmon (No. 1), who was the Rookie of the Year in the NEC last year. Although he has assisted on more than 15% of his team’s baskets when he’s been on the floor in their three D-I games, he has also posted an ugly 27.2% turnover rate.

Joining Harmon in the backcourt is junior guard Greg Brown (No. 12), who coach Rob Krimmel says is one of the NEC’s best defenders. Despite starting all four games, Brown is averaging just under 26 minutes per game, but has been the team’s best facilitator when he’s on the court, dishing dimes on more than a quarter of the team’s buckets.

Earl Brown is the playmaker for St. Francis
(Photo Credit: Aaron Doster/USA Today Sports)

To keep announcers and fans confused, the best player for the Red Flash is also named Brown — Earl Brown (No. 15). The 6’6″ wing has a quick first step and is a very good passer, but has a hard time carrying a very bad offense, with opponents able to focus most of their energy on him. Despite the added attention, Earl does a good job creating his own looks and getting to the line, but he does not convert those opportunities, having made just 50% of his free-throw attempts so far this season.

Senior Ollie Jackson (No. 22) is a 6’3″ guard who has also started every game, yet plays less than half of the team’s minutes. Although he played at the four against NEC opponents last season, Jackson stayed in his more natural role on the perimeter in the team’s season-opening loss at Cincinnati. He is just 1-for-10 from the field so far this season, and has a turnover rate just shy of 30%.

Rounding out the starting five is Ronnie Drinnon (No. 40), the team’s big man at 6’7″. Against a much bigger Cincinnati team, Drinnon actually did a respectable job in the post, showing nice touch on his hook shot, while also adding a turnaround jumper in the midrange. His rebounding numbers are ranked in the Top 500 on both ends of the court, so the Red Flash will need him to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court against Texas tonight.

The Red Flash have a very small rotation, with just two reserves seeing significant minutes. Junior Ben Millaud-Meunier (No. 11) is known as the team’s sharpshooter, although his 37.5% mark from long range is currently second on the team, behind Harmon’s 43.8%. Cincinnati chased Millaud-Meunier off the arc a few times, and he struggled to make them pay with his midrange game.

Senior Dominique Major rounds out the rotation, providing quality on-ball defense. He was aggressive with the bounce against Cincinnati, but preferred to look for teammates once he found a crack. Most of Major’s shots come from outside, but he’s yet to find much success this season, having connected on just 28.6% of his looks.

Keys to the Game

This is one of those match-ups where our “Keys to the Game” section is something of a misnomer. Although St. Francis will likely slow the pace enough to keep tonight’s score from getting too ugly, there’s no reason why Texas should have any problems at all in this game. The Longhorns could likely win this one with a walk-on or two playing significant minutes, so these “keys” are simply ways that Texas can make the final margin even bigger.

1. Exploit the size advantage – With St. Francis having just one player at 6’7″, the Longhorns could easily go inside on each and every play. Cincinnati was able to abuse the Red Flash in the high-low game, simply dropping entry passes right over the top of the undersized defenders. Texas should focus on good ball movement against a disciplined-but-undersized defense, with an eye towards finding great angles for post entry passes.

2. Turn up the pressure – The Longhorns have posted outstanding defensive numbers this season without forcing very many turnovers. St. Francis, meanwhile, has struggled with controlling the basketball, and looked terrified against backcourt pressure in the loss to Cincinnati. If Texas wants to have some game-speed practice with their traps and pressure looks, this would be a night in which that would result in quite a few extra possessions.

3. Dominate the glass – St. Francis typically doesn’t earn second chances, and that’s even the case against like-sized opponents. However, they have been able to keep opponents from winning back their own missed shots, a statistic that defies conventional logic. The Longhorns should not have a hard time owning the defensive glass tonight, but can also take away one of the few strengths for St. Francis if they are able to win back a good share of their own misses.

11.21.14
Posted by Ryan Clark at 8:32AM

California Golden Bears (3-0) vs. #10/10 Texas Longhorns (3-0)
Madison Square Garden | New York, NY | Tip: Approx. 6:30 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN2
Vegas: Texas -5.5 | KenPom: Texas, 68-64 (67%)

The Texas Longhorns overcame a slow start at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night to knock off Iowa and advance to the title game of the 2K Classic. Cal surprised Syracuse in the other semifinal, cruising to a comfortable win over the nation’s 23rd-ranked team. That sets up tonight’s unexpected championship matchup, as new Cal coach Cuonzo Martin and his underrated Golden Bears set their sights on another ranked foe.

Jabari Bird and Cal upset Syracuse last night
(Photo credit: Kim Willens/Associated Press)

By the numbers

Through the first three games, Cal’s tempo stats have an interesting duality. The pace of their games are relatively quick, with an adjusted average of 70.4 possessions, up from the national average of 67.7 possessions. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that their average offensive possession is the shortest in all of D-I hoops at just 11.2 seconds, according to Ken Pomeroy. However, on the other end of the floor, they average the 14th-slowest possessions, with opponents hanging on to the ball for 21.6 seconds.

The Golden Bears have a bevy of talented three-point shooters, but don’t rely on the long ball to score. Cal’s 45.5% mark behind the arc is 29th-best in the nation, but they take less than 30% of their shots from three-point range, and score less than 30% of their points from there.

Perhaps the main reason Cal doesn’t have to rely on the three is because they have a trio of guards that can all slice up defenses with the bounce, and their entire team moves the ball incredibly well. Their team assist percentage of 67.3% is 33rd in the NCAA, and their ball movement against the zones of Syracuse and Alcorn State looked like something out of a coaching video.

Cal has also limited their mistakes through the first three games, turning it over on just 16.4% of their possessions, well below the national average of 20.1%. On the other end of the floor, they don’t force many mistakes by the opponents, either, causing miscues on just 16.9% of possessions. Instead, the Golden Bears get in your shirt on the perimeter, and help quickly when that tight defense allows dribble penetration by quick opposing guards.

Meet the Bears

When Mike Montgomery retired following the 2013-14 season, he certainly didn’t leave the cupboard bare. Despite losing about 27 points per game with the departures of Justin Cobbs and Richard Solomon, Cal still returned a loaded backcourt with tons of offensive talent. When Cuonzo Martin was dealing with an unappreciative fanbase in Knoxville that was trying to run him out of town, Berkeley provided a perfect landing spot, giving him a team that wouldn’t require rebuilding.

At the point, junior Tyrone Wallace (No. 3) is a true combo guard with excellent slashing abilities. He isn’t just a head-down, drive-at-the-rim kind of guy, as he can wiggle through traffic and hit floaters or pull-up jumpers from all over the court. He takes 26.2% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, but still manages to log assists on 31.1% of the buckets. The 6’5″ guard could pose some matchup issues for the smaller Texas backcourt.

Joining Wallace in the backcourt is Jordan Mathews (No. 24), another guard who can create his own shot, but who is also a big-time threat from long range. On the year, Mathews is 5-for-13 from behind the arc, and with the speed that Cal moves the ball, they can often find him for wide open looks.

Sophomore wing Jabari Bird (No. 23) is a 6’6″ guy who can easily find cracks in the defense, and is always looking for teammates who are freed up by his penetration. Like Wallace, Bird plays a key role in a ton of Cal possessions, as he takes 28.4% of the shots when he’s on the floor, while also assisting on more than 32% of the buckets. For a Texas team with a small backcourt and no prototypical wings, Bird will be another interesting matchup.

In the frontcourt, junior Christian Behrens (No. 14) has started all three games, but is averaging just over 20 minutes per game. Behrens has dealt with serious knee injuries dating back to high school, and has yet to be more than a role player for Cal. It looks like Coach Martin is taking it slow with Behrens right now, and utilizing a rotation at the four spot.

David Kravish will have his hands full with the UT big men
(Photo credit: Ben Margot/Associated Press)

Senior David Kravish (No. 45) rounds out the starting five, and will face a tall order against the size of Texas tonight. The 6’10” Kravish is truly an all-around player, as he can block shots, rebound well, stretch the floor with his jumper, and is a great passer. That jumper and passing ability make him a threat out of the high post, and he helps Cal break down opposing zone defenses from that soft spot at the free throw line.

In the backcourt, Sam Singer (No. 2) is the team’s backup point guard, but is not nearly the dual threat that the rest of the Cal guards are. He’s a steady guard who posted a 2.56-to-1 turnover ratio as a freshman, but has unfortunately struggled with ball control through the first three games this year.

Graduate transfer Dwight Tarwater (No. 1) came to Berkeley after finishing his degree at Cornell, and can play on the wing or serve as an undersized stretch four. He’s averaging just under 20 minutes per game, is 6-for-10 from long range, and has a 75% eFG mark.

Facing the size of Texas, Coach Martin may elect to increase the minutes for freshman Kingsley Okorah, a 7’1″ freshman who originally committed to Tennessee, but followed his coach to Berkeley. Roger Moute a Bidias (No. 22) is a 6’6″ sophomore forward who is averaging less than 16 minutes per game, but may also see a little more PT against Texas, thanks to a 7’1″ wingspan.

Keys to the game

1. Dominate the glass – The Golden Bears are rather thin in the frontcourt, and they lack the size of the Longhorns. Through three games, they have posted rebounding numbers on both ends of the court that are only average, and they should find it hard to improve those marks against Texas tonight. If the Longhorns can take advantage of their size and dominate the glass on both ends of the court, they’ll limit extra possessions for a dangerous Cal offense, while giving their own bigs some easy second-chance points.

2. Limit dribble penetration – This will be easier said than done against a talented Cal backcourt that can easily break down opposing defenses off the bounce. The Longhorns fortunately have great shot blockers inside to help clean things up when the perimeter defense breaks down, but the Golden Bears are also really talented passers. Rather than barrel headlong into a stout Texas interior defense, the Cal guards are much more likely to find open teammates when they are able to penetrate, which would mean easy buckets and wide-open threes.

3. Pound it down low – Texas has the clear size advantage in this one, and they need to exploit that early and often. In addition to getting easy points and covering for their own shooting woes, the Longhorns can hopefully tag the thin Cal frontcourt with some foul trouble early, which would only serve to increase the Texas size advantage down low.

11.20.14
Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:12AM

#NR/25 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) vs. #10/10 Texas Longhorns (2-0)
Madison Square Garden | New York, NY | Tip: 6 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN2
Vegas: Texas -6 | Pomeroy: Texas, 75-73 (56%)

For Texas fans who had a chance to see the newest edition of their Longhorn basketball team take the court this weekend, there was ample cause for excitement. Opening the season as a Top 10 team, the experienced Longhorn squad thumped North Dakota State and Alcorn State by a combined 67-point margin, showing off a massive frontcourt and incredible depth in the process.

As dominant as Texas looked in those two victories, fans had to temper their excitement, due to the level of competition. Alcorn State will likely finish as one of the worst teams in Division I this season, while North Dakota State lost a ton of talent from last year’s team that upset Oklahoma in the NCAA tournament’s Round of 64. The real tests for the Longhorns begin this week at Madison Square Garden, where they will take on Iowa tonight and either Syracuse or Cal tomorrow.

Fran McCaffery is ready to build on last year’s NCAA bid
(Photo credit: Jim Slosiarek/Associated Press)

Tonight’s matchup with Iowa is one in which the two teams will find many similarities between their own squad and their opponent. Both the Longhorns and Hawkeyes have quite a bit of size in the frontcourt, and both benches can easily go 10 deep. While no one will confuse Iowa’s roster with that of Kentucky and its platoons, tonight’s game will be an excellent measuring stick to give us all an idea of just how good these Longhorns truly are.

By the Numbers

Through two games, Iowa has been sound on both sides of the ball, while playing at a breakneck pace against North Dakota State and Hampton. The Hawkeyes have averaged an adjusted tempo of 72.6 possessions per game according to Ken Pomeroy, while their adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.107 points per possession is in the Top 25 nationally, and their adjusted defensive efficiency lands in the Top 50.

On offense, Iowa shares the ball and has been deadly from long range. The team has logged assists on nearly 68% of its buckets, and has knocked down almost 44% of its threes. The Hawkeyes have also taken advantage of their size against the smaller Hampton and North Dakota State lineups, snagging 36.4% of their offensive rebounding chances, a number that is in the top quarter of D-I teams.

The one struggle for Iowa offensively this season has been turnovers, as they’ve coughed it up on roughly one in five possessions. While some of this was due to the second team getting extended minutes in the two blowout wins, the core rotation also had problems with Hampton’s double teams in the season opener. In addition, Iowa’s focus on pushing the pace has also resulted in some rushed passes that cost them possessions.

On the other end of the court, Iowa has done a stellar job forcing teams into bad looks when they attack inside the arc. Hawkeye opponents have shot 29.6% from two-point range in the first two games, a stat that is made even more impressive when you learn that Iowa also hasn’t been sending opponents to the line. Iowa’s defensive free-throw rate, which measures how often opponents take free throws, is just 24.6, ranking them 41st out of 351 D-I teams.

Aaron White has started strong this season
(Photo credit: Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press)

Meet the Hawkeyes

After enjoying a pair of games against undersized opponents, the Longhorns will now have to contend with an Iowa team that has an equally formidable frontcourt. Aaron White (No. 30), a 6’9″ senior who was third-team All-Big 10 last year, is the most impressive member of that frontcourt. He has an impeccable knack for getting to the boards, and seems to have a hand on the ball every time Iowa misses a shot. White also moves incredibly well without the basketball, and has great speed and handles for a big guy.

Joining White in the frontcourt is 7’1″ junior Adam Woodbury (No. 34). The big man had a very rough outing against Hampton, repeatedly having trouble against the Pirate double-teams, and even struggling in one-on-one face-up opportunities. He bounced back against North Dakota State, fully exploiting his size advantage while posting a 10-point, 11-rebound double-double. Although Woodbury’s offensive skills have been inconsistent on the young season, he is a stout defensive presence who stands his ground down low.

The third starting frontcourt member for Iowa is Jarrod Uthoff (No. 20), a stretch forward who much prefers camping out on the perimeter and waiting for a kickout from one of his slashing teammates. Uthoff has made 6-of-10 from behind the arc so far this season, while only taking six total shots from two-point range.

Although he didn’t start either of the first two games, forward Gabriel Olaseni (No. 0) has been the most impressive Hawkeye this season. Olaseni is always moving without the ball, and knows how to perfectly time his cuts to the rim so that a teammate can find him for an easy layup. The senior is one of those crafty forwards who is much more dangerous when slipping into space than simply posting up down low.

Olaseni is also a beast on the boards and uses his length to clean up numerous shots in help situations. Through two games, Olaseni has blocked 16% of the two-point shots made by opponents when he’s on the floor, a block rate that is 16th-best in the country. His 37.6% defensive rebounding rate has also earned him a Top 20 individual ranking in that category.

Iowa has a pair of talented guards in their starting five who can both run the point in Mike Gesell (No. 10) and Anthony Clemmons (No. 5). Gesell is a deceptively quick player, who knows how to use the hesitation dribble to make his speed bursts even more effective. He has an insane assist rate of 38.8% through two games, but hasn’t played enough minutes to qualify for the national leaderboard.

Clemmons, meanwhile, is a guard with quick hands that has also made a big impact behind the arc. Even though the junior doesn’t take many shots, he’s made 5-of-6 from three-point range this year, and also owns a steal rate that is in the Top 100 nationally.

Backing up Gesell and Clemmons is six-foot sophomore guard Trey Dickerson (No. 11), who transferred to Iowa after one year at the juco level. Although he still is a little raw for major minutes, Dickerson has incredible hops and has shown range to about 17 feet. His shooting percentage is just 36.3% through two games, but he’s been fortunate enough to log solid minutes in those lopsided affairs, giving him quite a bit of early experience.

Sophomore forward Peter Jok (No. 3) is another reserve option for Coach McCaffery, and could end up being one steal of a recruit. Jok was one of the top local talents as a freshman in Iowa, but knee surgery took him out of action and put him under the radar. The Hawkeyes had pursued him early, and they were still interested after his rehab.

In the first two games, you could certainly see flashes of Jok’s diverse offensive skillset, and his length and hustle were also on display when he raced back against Hampton to shut down a fast break opportunity with an impressive block. Although Jok isn’t a starter and seems to be fourth in the forward rotation right now, it certainly seems that he’ll be a force in the Big 10 before he graduates.

Rounding out the rotation are senior guard Josh Oglesby (No. 2) and German-born freshman forward Dom Uhl (No. 25). Coming off a season in which he made 40% from behind the arc, Oglesby has not been shy about chucking it up from behind the arc, but he has yet to find his stroke this season, having made just 23% of his shots. Uhl has yet to make a major impact as a freshman, but did knock down some threes against Hampton and looked really smooth spinning around the Pirate defender for a layup on one baseline drive. Like Jok, Uhl’s role will likely shrink in a crowded frontcourt as the season wears on, but he’s shown signs of things to come.

Keys to the Game

1. Lock down the perimeter – Iowa moves the ball extremely well, which leads to quite a few wide-open threes for players who are good shooters even when there is a hand in their face. That’s a recipe for disaster for opposing defenses, and one that Texas must avoid tonight to fend off an upset at the Garden. The Longhorn bigs did a good job chopping their feet and closing out quickly on perimeter shooters in their first two games, and they’ll need to do more of the same tonight.

2. Crash the glass – Texas and Iowa both posted solid rebounding numbers in games against teams that were much smaller than their own. With these sizable frontcourts now facing off against one another, a team that can post a significant edge on the glass may find that those extra possessions end up being the difference in tonight’s game.

3. Stay poised against pressure – Iowa isn’t a team that constantly throws pressure defense at you, but they do have a variety of looks that they use to keep opponents guessing. Those multiple looks do include some backcourt pressure and half-court traps, so the Longhorn guards have to be aware of that danger tonight. In a game that looks to be fairly tight on paper, the only thing worse than wasted possessions are wasted possessions that lead to fast-break buckets.

11.16.14
Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:37PM

Alcorn State Braves (0-1) at #10/10 Texas Longhorns (1-0)
Frank Erwin Center | Austin, TX | Tip: 7 P.M. CT
TV: ESPNU | Vegas: Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns return to action tonight, finishing out the Regional Round of the 2K Classic with a game against Alcorn State. As with all November tournaments, the Longhorns will “advance” to New York City on Thursday regardless of the result tonight, and will take on Iowa, followed by either Cal or Syracuse.

Even if the Longhorns needed a win tonight to reach Madison Square Garden, there would not be much cause for concern. The Braves have languished at the bottom of the SWAC for all three years of Luther Riley’s tenure, and based on their performance in Berkeley on Friday night, Alcorn State may be in for another long year.

Alcorn State repeatedly let Cal get to the rack
(Photo credit: Ben Margot/Associated Press)

By the numbers

With just one game on the books, the stats don’t look pretty for the Braves. Alcorn State fell behind by double-digits to Cal almost immediately, and ultimately lost by a 91-57 tally. Their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers currently rank 323rd and 304th out of 351 Division I teams, according to number cruncher Ken Pomeroy.

On a more granular level, there still wasn’t much the Braves did right against the Bears. Their effective field goal percentage was just 34.2%, while they allowed Cal a 59.2% mark and were crushed on the defensive glass. About the only statistical positives for Alcorn State in the opener were the fact that they didn’t turn it over very often, and they didn’t send Cal to the line with much frequency. Of course, the matador defense played by Alcorn State had something to do with the latter, but we’re trying to stay positive here.

Meet the Braves

The lineup situation for Alcorn State is incredibly confusing at the moment, so I’m not even sure who will be on the bench for them tonight. Big man Octavious Brown didn’t make the trip to Berkeley, and his status for the game in Austin is unknown. Players also switched jersey numbers, resulting in an administrative technical at one point in the game, because an Alcorn State player was wearing a different number than what had been provided to the official scorer before the game.

The team’s best player is Leantwan Luckett (No. 1), who is listed as No. 15, but decided to wear No. 1 against the Bears. Who knows what he’ll be wearing tonight, but you’ll be able to quickly pick him out, since he’ll be the one chucking up shots early and often. Luckett took nearly a third of his team’s shots on Friday night, even though he was only on the floor for 30 minutes, and despite connecting on just 27.8% of his attempts.

Luckett is quick and can get to the rim, but as his field-goal percentage might have told you, he has quite a bit of trouble finishing. Since he had issues against a Cal team that really only has a pair of true post options, he will certainly have even more problems against the size of Texas.

That inability to finish once getting to the rack also plagued Marquis Vance (No. 30). The 6’7″ sophomore forward has the ability to face up and drive to the bucket, but doesn’t have much in the way of quickness or tight handles. Vance was also a sizable portion of the Alcorn State offense on Friday, taking 21% of their shots, while posting 17 points. He also easily led the team with nine rebounds on a night where few other Braves were able to earn second chances.

Tyrel Hunt (No. 0) is the team’s other dynamic scoring threat, but like Luckett, he also had some issues finishing against size. He did utilize a nice floater to score some buckets in the lane, so his midrange game might be the team’s best option against a big Texas team tonight.

Kenyan Pittman missed both of his attempts against Cal
(Photo credit: Ben Margot/Associated Press)

The starting five on Friday was rounded out with Tamarcio Wilson (No. 3) and Kenyan Pittman (No. 23), who combined for just four points in 57 minutes on the court. Key reserves for Alcorn State were Reginald Johnson, Jr. (No. 24), a freshman who was tabbed as Mr. Basketball in Louisiana last year, and George Thomas (No. 2), a 6’6″ junior who did not score in his limited action against Cal, but did snag four rebounds.

Keys to the game

Let us pretend for a moment that the only key to this game for Texas is not “just show up with five players in uniform.” Instead, let’s take a look at a few areas that Texas can exploit in the matchup with Alcorn State.

1) Run the floor in transition — Although Alcorn State didn’t turn the ball over very often, they did a terrible job early in the loss to Cal at stopping the ball in transition, leading to uncontested layups. The Braves also had very questionable shot selection, which set up the Bears nicely for numerous fast break points. The Longhorns have already shown their ability to add easy points on the break, and with big men that know how to run the floor in transition, they should easily take advantage of this weakness tonight.

2) Provide quick help on D — The Braves only logged assists on four of their 18 baskets, instead preferring to have one of their three stars isolate and try to get to the rim. Even when Cal offered help inside, the Braves were more content to force up a shot than look for an open teammate. If Texas is able to quickly help inside when they allow dribble penetration, they likely won’t fall victim to a timely assist, and should be able to force a ton of bad looks.

3) Attack with the bounce — When Cal didn’t manage to score on a fast break, they still found it easy to slice through the Alcorn State D with dribble penetration, and rotations by the Braves were horribly slow. Isaiah Taylor will likely have a field day against this defense, and should be able to pad his line with quite a few buckets and assists. We’ve heard a lot about Jordan Barnett‘s ability to finish with a nasty dunk, so perhaps he’ll even add a highlight or two on cuts from the wing.

3.22.14
Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:18PM

NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship — Midwest Region — Third Round
[7] Texas Longhorns (24-10) vs. [2] Michigan Wolverines (26-8)
Bradley Center | Milwaukee, WI | Tip: 4:15 CT | TV: CBS
Vegas: Michigan -4.5 | Pomeroy: Michigan, 73-69 (66%)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Big-name school loses its best players and has to rely on a group of sophomores and surprising freshman. Conference coach of the year honors are bestowed upon the man at the head of the bench. Hopes are high for the team to repeat their surprising run to the Final Four from the year before.

Up until that last point, Michigan and Texas have some similarities in their storylines this season. Fresh off an appearance in the national title game, the Wolverines were expecting to lean on big man Mitch McGary (No. 4) following the departures of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. to the NBA. Back problems cropped up for McGary during the summer, however, and the player who burst on to the national scene in last year’s NCAA tournament was limited to just eight games this year before having to shut it down.

That injury put the Wolverines at a disadvantage in the paint in a rough-and-tumble Big 10 Conference and raised some serious questions for a team that was just 8-4 in non-conference, had suffered a questionable loss to Charlotte, and whiffed on three opportunities for marquee wins. No matter, as John Beilein simply guided his team through the landmines of an unpredictable Big 10 season to a conference title that they won by a three-game margin.

John Beilein has Michigan poised for another March run
(Photo credit: Al Goldis/Associated Press)

Although Michigan seemed to be in line for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, a loss in the Big 10 tournament championship to rival Michigan State may have been what kept the blue and maize on the 2-seed line. Thanks to the NCAA’s pod system, the Wolverines still get to play their first two games fairly close to home, in Milwaukee. However, if Friday night’s crowd was any indication, the sea of Badger red at the Bradley Center could make this feel a little more like a road game for Michigan.

By the Numbers

The Wolverines have the third-best offense in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s magic machines, scoring 1.214 adjusted points per possession. Michigan is incredibly patient with the basketball, works for open looks, and generally doesn’t miss once they find them. They average just 62.7 possessions per game, making them the 23rd-slowest team out of 351 D-I squads.

What is most impressive is that Michigan finds this level of offensive success without many second chances. The Wolverines reclaim just 28.8% of their missed shots, an offensive rebounding rate that puts them in D-I’s Bottom 100 in that category. To be able to score that efficiently without offensive boards takes a combination of great ball control and excellent shooting. Michigan coughs it up on only 14.9% of their possessions, which ranks 18th nationally.

As for the shooting, the Wolverines are absolutely deadly. Beyond the arc, Michigan makes 39.4% of its shots, which ranks 13th in the country. They take 40% of their shots from long range, which isn’t that surprising for a team that shoots the long ball so well. But even when Michigan isn’t torching the nets from three-point range, they work for great looks inside and convert them. On the season, they have made 53% of their two-point field goals, a stat is once again near the top of the national charts, ranking 20th.

While the Texas defense will have its hands full trying to slow down the Michigan attack, the Horns should be able to find a little more success on the other side of the ball. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted 1.009 points per possession, a number that is up significantly from the stats that Beilein’s teams usually put up. The Wolverines have had lapses where they allow dribble penetration, they are typically exploited inside by bigger teams, and they have also had some issues getting set to stop the secondary break.

For the second-straight game, the Longhorns are facing a team that does not force too many turnovers, something that comes as a relief for a young backcourt that sometimes struggles with ball control. The Wolverines only force opponents into possession-ending mistakes 17.2% of the time, so Texas will likely not see much in the way of pressure this afternoon. As a result, the Longhorns should only have to avoid frustrating unforced errors that would make it tough to keep up with Michigan’s highly-efficient offense.

Meet the Wolverines

Derrick Walton, Jr. is a dynamic point guard
(Photo credit: AJ Mast/Associated Press)

It isn’t easy for a freshman point guard to follow in the footsteps of a consensus All-American, National Player of the Year, and Cousy Award winner. Is 6’1″ Derrick Walton, Jr. (No. 10) Trey Burke? Of course not. But the freshman guard has performed admirably while having to fill the shoes of a legend, posting an assist rate north of 20% while also drilling more than 40% of his threes.

Walton has an incredibly quick first step to beat tight defenses, and he couples that burst with a hesitation dribble that keeps defenders guessing. He also showed an incredible amount of hustle and scrappiness in a road win against Ohio State — the program’s first in its last ten tries — where he posted 10 rebounds despite being the smallest player on the court.

Although it’s Walton that runs the show, it’s 6’6″ Canadian product Nik Stauskas (No. 11) that gets the ink. He has made 45.1% of his three-pointers on the year, a number that’s even more impressive when you see just how closely Big 10 opponents guarded him throughout the season. Stauskas also improved his slashing ability this season, and he repeatedly puts the ball on the deck to punish opponents who overplay him on the perimeter.

Stauskas needs very little time or space to get his shot off, so defenses really have to completely deny him the ball to have any chance of stopping him. Even with a defender in his face, Stauskas often uses a quick crossover to earn just a sliver of space, which is all he needs to rise up and can a triple.

While guarding Stauskas will be enough of a chore for the Longhorns today, they also have to deal with another 6’6″ shooter in freshman Caris LeVert (No. 23). Like Stauskas, LeVert can elevate quickly and get his three-pointers up over the defense, but he also has driving ability to exploit tight defenses. His height and athleticism make him a very tough cover on the wing, and he can get to the rim in an instant with his long strides.

With Stauskas and LeVert bringing so much length to the perimeter, the Texas guards are going to find it difficult to simply face up and drive the gaps this afternoon. If the Longhorns are patient, they will find cracks in Michigan’s defense, but they have been frustrated this season by teams with similar length and have not exercised the patience necessary to find good looks. If Texas falls into that same trap this afternoon, it will be very difficult to pull off an upset.

Glenn Robinson III (No. 1) is yet another athletic 6’6″ player for the Wolverines, and he will be involved in a pair of interesting mismatches this afternoon. On defense, he will clearly be undersized against the likes of Jonathan Holmes or Connor Lammert. Although Michigan could play a zone to offset the size difference, they have typically stuck with the man defense this year, even against bigger teams like Michigan State. On the other end of the court, Robinson’s athleticism and ability to slash will be tough for those same two Longhorns to stay in front of, and a zone would likely be a death sentence against the outside shooting of Michigan.

Inside, 6’8″ senior Jordan Morgan (No. 52) will have his hands full against Cameron Ridley this afternoon. Morgan has performed admirably this season, having to step into a much different role than he had envisioned prior to McGary’s injury. On a team that does not clean the offensive glass, Morgan’s 12.6% offensive rebounding rate is incredibly impressive. The 19.5% mark he posts on the defensive end is also a big part of the team’s success on that side of the boards, where they are surprisingly ranked 54th in the country.

Backing up Morgan down low is Jon Horford (No. 15), a 6’10” big who will be very important against the Texas frontcourt this afternoon. In last Sunday’s Big 10 title game, Michigan State’s Adreian Payne quickly tagged Horford with two fouls and Morgan with one in a single possession, putting Horford on the bench just 96 seconds into the game. That forced little-used Max Bielfeldt (No. 44) into action early, a fate that Michigan sorely wants to avoid this afternoon.

In the backcourt, Michigan relies on Zak Irvin (No. 21) and Spike Albrecht (No. 2) off the bench. Irvin is another 6’6″ guy with a deadly outside stroke, but unlike the other Michigan marksmen, he doesn’t like to put the ball on the floor and try to attack with the bounce. Irvin has taken 74.6% of his shots from beyond the arc, and averages roughly four three-point attempts per game, despite seeing the court for just 15.8 minutes per game.

While Albrecht is best known for his three-point barrage against Louisville in last year’s title game (and day-after tweet to Kate Upton), he is truly a facilitator. He has seen some important minutes in crunch time this year, giving the Wolverines a steady ballhandler who creates looks for his teammates. Yes, Albrecht still shoots 39% from long range and can’t be given space, but it’s his 25% assist rate that has made him even more dangerous this season.

Keys to the Game

1) Dominate the paint – It’s going to be a battle of styles this afternoon, and whichever team does a better job imposing its will on the other will likely be advancing to Indianapolis. Michigan will obviously try to take away the paint for Texas, whether that is by using a sagging man defense or just going zone and daring a poor-shooting Longhorn team to beat them with jumpers. The Longhorns have to play their style of basketball and be persistent in getting points in the paint. If they fail to do that and just hope to win with another crazy shooting performance like they had on Friday night, the upset odds look very long.

Nik Stauskas is a three-point marksman
(Photo credit: Al Goldis/Associated Press)

2) Limit perimeter damage – With so many great shooters on the perimeter for Michigan, the Longhorns are going to have a very tough time shutting down the three-point threat. Add in the significant size advantage that Michigan enjoys at the two and the three, and the defensive assignment is even tougher for the Horns. Demarcus Holland will have to use his length to try to stifle Stauskas, and needs to play him high to not only deny the ball, but also funnel him baseline to the waiting shot blockers if he tries to go backdoor.

To guard LeVert, the Longhorns might need to call on Martez Walker for big minutes once again. The freshman has seen an increased role in the last three weeks, and his ability to limit dribble penetration and use his length to challenge outside shots are a big reason for that extra playing time. Although Javan Felix is a sophomore leader on this team, his size is a defensive liability against Michigan, so fans have to hope Walker can step up and help to limit the damage.

3) Dictate the tempo – Michigan’s lethargic pace is a direct result of their patience on offense, plus the fact that opponents usually have to exercise the same patience and move the ball quickly to find the cracks in Michigan’s defense. If the Longhorns can get out and run, they will find that the Wolverine defense is not only questionable in transition, but they also often fail to recover quickly enough to stop the secondary break.

An up-tempo game has also proven to throw Michigan’s offense out of sync, as seen in their early-season loss to Iowa State. The Cyclones and Wolverines played 74 possessions in that game, and Michigan shot just 8-of-29 from long range. While the Wolverines missed some shots they usually doesn’t, they also took quite a few early threes, rather than getting the great looks that their methodical offense typically earns. If Texas can force Michigan into speeding things up a little this afternoon, the Horns have a much better chance to finally return to the Sweet Sixteen.

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