With a third of the conference schedule now in the rear-view mirror, the Texas Longhorns are clinging perilously to the NCAA bubble. The young team had two big résumé-building wins within their grasp during the last week, but let both slip through their fingers. Down two against Kansas State last Wednesday, the Longhorns had the ball with 20 seconds left, but turned it over to preserve a Wildcat victory. On Saturday, Texas was up four on a top-five Kansas team with 3:24 left, but failed to score a field goal the rest of the way and let another big win fall through the cracks.

Those losses mean that the Longhorns are now 0-5 in games decided by six points or less. Even more importantly, those two games were missed opportunities to log victories over teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, a key statistic used by the NCAA Selection Committee when choosing teams to put in the tournament.

While the Iowa State Cyclones are currently just 52nd in the RPI, tonight’s game still amounts to a must-win. Against Top 100 RPI competition, the Longhorns are 1-6, with only eight more games against Top 100 teams left on the schedule. Five of those are at the Erwin Center, so Texas must defend home court against quality competition, a trend they can start tonight.

The first meeting

The Longhorns looked to be in a good position when Iowa State do-everything star Royce White was saddled with two early fouls. Unfortunately, the Cyclones made up for their MVP’s absence by torching the Longhorns from long range. At half, Iowa State held a 10-point lead, thanks to an incredible 9-of-12 mark from behind the arc.

Texas roared back in the opening minutes of the second half, powered by a suddenly-rejuvenated J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns completely erased the deficit in less than three minutes, but the comeback bid stalled out following an ankle injury to Brown. The junior stayed in the game for a few more minutes, but was completely ineffective. When he headed to the bench for good, Texas trailed just 49-47. For the next six minutes, the Horns could only manage seven free throws, and Iowa State rebuilt a lead they would never relinquish.

The big story of the game for the Longhorns was the emergence of Clint Chapman. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 19 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 78% from the field. Texas made a concerted effort to get the big man involved early, and the Longhorn guards consistently found him open when they penetrated the lane. The game was clearly a turning point for Chapman, who has exploded in conference play, averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 27.7 minutes. In non-conference games, Chapman had scored just five points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Since then…

Iowa State quickly proved that the win over Texas was no fluke, obliterating Texas A&M in College Station on the strength of a triple-double from White, who was still battling flu-like symptoms. The Cyclone schedule quickly toughened up and tested the surprise team, although the transfer-laden roster performed admirably in close games against Missouri and at Kansas. With their record leveled at 2-2, the Cyclones took care of business last week against lower-tier teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, although it took a last-second, banked-in three by Scott Christopherson to knock off the Cowboys in regulation.

In conference play, White is averaging a double-double, scoring 12 points per game to go with 10.2 boards. His free-throw shooting, which has been a constant battle, continues to be subpar. The big man has made just 42.9% of his free throws in Big 12 play, so you can be sure that the Longhorns will be making him earn his points when he gets them out of position on defense.

Freshman Tyrus McGee has also increased his contributions in league play, earning Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors for stellar performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. McGee was a blistering 11-of-20 from long range and scored 37 points in the two games, and he also set a career-high with nine boards against the Cowboys.

McGee is not the only Cyclone killing it from long range, and as a result, Iowa State has actually increased the number of threes they attempt. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones have taken 44% of their shots from behind the arc, but when they make 38.8% of their attempts, you can’t blame them. In addition to McGee’s 48% mark in Big 12 games, Iowa State is also getting a solid 41.7% success rate from Christopherson.

Meet the Cyclones
For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out the game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the damage from deep – When a team takes nearly half its shots from three-point range, there’s no way you can hope to completely shut down the perimeter. Instead, Texas must attempt to limit the damage that the Cyclones do from outside. Iowa State came out on fire against the Horns in Ames, so you would have to think that Texas will be playing much tighter on the perimeter in this one. If the Longhorns can hold Iowa State at or below their Big 12 rate of 38.8% behind the arc, they have to like their chances.

2) Be aggressive – Texas was able to penetrate at will during the first meeting when J’Covan Brown was in the game. He and Myck Kabongo will have to do the same tonight to ensure that the offense finds success. When teams cut off Texas’ dribble penetration and hedge hard on ball screens, the Longhorns often stand around for the majority of the shot clock before putting up a challenged shot. Texas obviously cannot afford to do that tonight, so the Horns will have to attack early.

3) Get to the line – Building off of the last point, the Longhorns need to earn a chunk of points at the charity stripe tonight. Texas has scored nearly 27% of its points from the line in conference play, thanks in large part to an impressive 76.4% mark at the stripe. With an offense that can often stall and lose all semblance of movement, manufacturing those points with free throws is key.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Sheldon McClellan did an excellent job earning the whistles, scoring 10 of his 14 points at the line, and the Horns scored nearly 34% of their points on free throws. Doing the same tonight will not only help Texas add to the point total, but it could also handcuff Royce White with foul trouble.

The old adage holds that the best thing about freshmen is that they eventually become sophomores. Fans of the Longhorns can surely identify with that statement after Texas dropped their conference opener to Iowa State last night in Ames. Texas was without the services of J’Covan Brown down the stretch, leaving the six-man freshman class and Clint Chapman in charge of a comeback bid that fell just short.

Things looked promising for Texas when Iowa State big man Royce White went to the bench with two fouls just minutes into the game. But instead of cratering, the Cyclones built a ten-point halftime lead on the strength of 75% shooting from behind the arc. The Longhorns came out aggressive in the second half, erasing that lead in just minutes, fueled by Brown’s 19 points. Unfortunately, the junior guard injured his ankle as he finished a nice spin move in the lane, and the Cyclones were able to quickly rebuild a lead that they would cling to until the final buzzer.

What looked good

Even with Brown exploding for 19 points in just 25 minutes, the real story of the night was the surprising emergence of fifth-year senior Clint Chapman. The Canby, Oregon native had earned his first start of the season in the team’s previous game against Rice, but immediately found himself in foul trouble and was completely ineffective. Last night’s game provided Chapman a second-straight start, and the Longhorns made an immediate effort to get him the ball.

The big man responded with the best game of his career, putting in 19 points on 7-of-9 shooting, while also locking down the glass on both ends of the floor. His 14 rebounds were a career high, and he led all players in both offensive and defensive boards. Most importantly, Chapman was making the point-blank shots that he — and many of the Longhorns — have struggled with all season. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need Chapman playing this ridiculously well in every game, but his consistent conversion of the easy looks is imperative to the team’s success in Big 12 play.

While Chapman raised the eyebrows in Hilton Coliseum, Brown tied him as leading scorer for the game. This was J’Covan’s most complete, efficient game in quite some time, and it’s not a stretch to say that the team could have pulled out a win if he played the last 12 minutes of the game. He was dicing up the Iowa State defense in the second half, penetrating at will for points inside. When he came out of the game for the last time, Texas trailed just 49-47 and was moving the ball well, notching assists on all three buckets that he didn’t score himself.

On the night, Brown shot 70% from the floor, knocked down all four free throws, and coughed it up just once. After posting 16 turnovers against just nine assists in his last three games, Brown’s lack of miscues against the Cyclones is a huge development.

Longhorn fans can also be reassured by the performance by freshman Sheldon McClellan. His shot was off all night, as evidenced by his 2-of-11 line. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc, including some where he was completely wide open. Instead of going into a shell and being totally ineffective, he continued to put the ball on the floor and attacked the paint, drawing a ton of fouls on the baseline defenders. McClellan made it to the line 13 times in this game, grinding out a 14-point performance.

Once again, McClellan also avoided any turnovers despite all of his moves to the basket. With another clean sheet, his incredible turnover rate creeps even lower, to just 5.2% on the year. A number that low is typically reserved for your three-point specialists, who rarely attack or try to feed the ball inside.

Texas also did a good job on the defensive glass, ensuring that Iowa State couldn’t extend possessions. The Longhorns held the Cyclones to an offensive rebounding mark of just 22.6%, their worst percentage of the season.

What needed work

Of course, that impressive defensive rebounding performance didn’t mean quite as much when the Horns let the Cyclones knock down 51% of their shots. On top of the poor defense, the few offensive rebounds that Iowa State did manage to grab happened to come at the worst possible moments. Of the seven missed shots that Iowa State reclaimed, two of them were free throws missed as Texas tried to come back down the stretch. With the Longhorn offense already struggling to climb back into it, letting Iowa State have extra chances just made the task even tougher.

While Iowa State made more than 51% of their shots, the real killer was the team’s success from long range. In the first half, the Cyclones made 9-of-12 from outside, and most of the shots were completely unchallenged by the Horns. A simple look at the stat sheet shows how much Iowa State relies on the outside shot, and just how successful they are when they take them. For the Longhorns to continually allow those open looks just speaks to the youth of the team and their inability to remember the scouting report once the bright lights come on.

Texas also struggled to stop Iowa State in transition, giving up numerous dunks and layups on the secondary break. The only thing that gets a crowd more juiced up than a clutch three is a nasty dunk, and the Longhorns let the Hilton Coliseum crowd explode on more than one occasion. The Horns also had two or three possessions in a row where they let White take it coast-to-coast, with no one stopping the ball before White had reached the paint. That kind of lackadaisical defense is going to be absolutely deadly against the kind of athletes Texas will face in the Big 12.

In the half-court, Alexis Wangmene and Jaylen Bond had a particularly tough time defending White. To be fair, we’ve known all season that Wangmene would struggle against bigs who have a good face-up game, so this was a terrible match-up from the start. Bond’s issues, on the other hand, came as a surprise. He further compounded his defensive struggles by wasting his fouls on the offensive end, limiting him to just 11 minutes on the court.

While we mentioned the success Brown and McClellan both had controlling the ball, the same could not be said for the rest of the Horns. Texas coughed it up on 22.6% of its possessions, the fifth time this season that the team has exceeded the 22% mark. Three of those poor showings have come in the team’s last four games, which is a scary trend to start as conference play gets cranked up. The Longhorns have to make their possessions count during these next two months, so they will have to quickly cut down on the errors.

Four of those turnovers came from Myck Kabongo, who once again struggled when Brown was out of the game. When J’Covan fouled out on a technical in New Jersey, Kabongo looked lost and overwhelmed by the moment and extra pressure. Against the Cyclones, he at least tried to break the defense down off the dribble a few times, but that really just meant that he ran full-tilt into ill-conceived drives. On multiple occasions, he simply made a beeline towards the baseline and threw up a wild prayer of a shot against two or three defenders. One of those shots even went off the side of the backboard.

When Myck is on his game, his dribble penetration is just as effective as Brown’s. While he’s not the finisher inside that J’Covan is, Myck has even better floor vision to find passing lanes that his counterpart might not. Unfortunately, finding a way to consistently perform that well has been a challenge for the freshman. Expectations were set very high for Kabongo based on his impressive play at the high school level, but it’s clear that it’s going to take some time for him to adjust to the pressures at this one. Texas’ growth this season will likely follow Kabongo’s own trajectory.

The Longhorns lacking any real penetration threat allowed Iowa State to focus on shutting down Chapman. As a result, in the waning minutes of the game the Texas offense often turned into a stagnant two-man game. The Cyclones could force Chapman well off the block, while Kabongo waited on the perimeter for an entry feed that could only be made much too far from the hoop.

Texas didn’t solely focus on forcing the ball in to Chapman, as there were a few sets where Julien Lewis was able to find some space on cuts without the ball, and Kabongo also worked to get it to McClellan when Chapman was guarded. None of that turned into points, however, and the Horns were only able to manage an and-one putback from Chapman during an especially futile span of more than six minutes down the stretch.

The offense was at least moving somewhat without Brown in this game, which is a vast improvement from how it looked when they were without his services in New Jersey. Unfortunately, “moving somewhat” didn’t equal any points, and it isn’t going to cut it in the Big 12. At this point, it seems that for Texas to succeed without Brown on the floor, there will have to be much more motion off the ball to give Kabongo and the Horns more options.

Up next: vs. Oklahoma State (8-6 overall, 1-0 Big 12); Saturday, 6 P.M. CT

For Michele Bachmann, last night’s Iowa caucus was the end of the road for her 2012 presidential campaign. On the other end of the spectrum, frontrunners Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul didn’t lock up November’s general election, but kept themselves alive by proving contenders to 120,000 farmers in America’s heartland.

That seemingly random intro leads us to this awkward segue, where we make the leap that for the Texas Longhorns, tonight’s conference opener at Iowa State provides a test similar to the Iowa caucus. A game that is seemingly inconsequential on paper — much like the opinions of 120,000 people in a country of 300-million — could prove huge in Texas’ pursuit of an NCAA bid. While a ticket to March Madness pales in comparison to a national party’s ticket to the general election, it’s clear that how Texas performs tonight will set the stage for conference play.

The Longhorns finished non-conference with a solid 10-3 mark, but lack any signature wins to beef up their NCAA résumé. The victory over Temple came when the Owls were lacking two star players, while a road win at UCLA is tarnished by the pathetic season the Bruins are stumbling through. In a very deep and balanced Big 12, the Longhorns will be tested every single night, and have to take the wins wherever they can get them. While the Cyclones are a scary (but inconsistent) team and Hilton Coliseum is not an easy venue to steal a win in, tonight’s game approaches must-win territory when you consider that the Longhorns have to play two games each against Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri.

By the numbers

Iowa State is near the top of the charts when it comes to three-pointers, and that’s clearly by design. Coach Fred Hoiberg typically has four players spread out on the perimeter, and often even moves big man Royce White (No. 30) to the top of the key for ball screens and iso plays. As a result, the Cyclones take nearly 43% of their shots from behind the arc, the 17th-highest percentage in the nation.

Fortunately, Iowa State is very streaky from behind the arc. On the year, they are making 37.8% from long range, which puts them in the Top 60 nationally. But when you break those numbers down, it’s clear that the Cyclones are a perfect example of the “live by the three, die by the three” cliché. In the team’s three losses — to Drake, Northern Iowa, and Michigan — they made just 16-of-64 (25%) from beyond the arc. In their ten wins, they sank 41.3% of their attempts, averaging just under 10 makes per victory.

The Cyclones also earn a fair share of points at the line, with more than 17 per game coming from free throws. Combining all of those freebies with the three-pointers means that just 42.3% of Iowa State’s points come from inside the arc. While that may seem like a large percentage, there are only 11 teams in the country who score less points from two-point range.

As would be expected, the bulk of the team’s free throws come from White getting fouled down low. Beyond that, there are some surprising numbers coming from guard Bubu Palo (No. 1), a former walk-on from Ames who has finally earned a scholarship for the spring semester. Palo draws an average of seven fouls per 40 minutes, and has an improbably high free-throw rate of 192.9%, meaning he shoots almost twice as many free throws as field goals.

Meet the Cyclones

As you could likely guess by this point, as Royce White goes, so go the Cyclones. At 6’8″, 270 pounds, he’s a remarkably big guy who was voted Big 12 Newcomer of the Year despite not playing a competitive game of basketball in over 900 days. White won a state title as a high schooler in Minnesota and elected to play close to home for Tubby Smith and the Golden Gophers. Unfortunately, he never played a single game there, sidelined by a slew of off the court issues — shoplifting at the Mall of America, assault of a mall security guard, and the theft of a laptop from a Minnesota dorm room.

With a fresh start at Iowa State, White has been able to show off his impressive skillset. Despite the big body, he is a deft passer and pretty good ball handler, giving Coach Hoiberg more flexibility on the offensive end. With that unusual blend of talents, White is tops on the team in points (13.1 per game), rebounds (8.9), and assists (3.9). He hardly played in the team’s last game thanks to flu-like symptoms, but should be back to full strength after three days of rest.

With defenses paying so much attention to White, that opens things up on the perimeter for the Cyclone guards. Chris Babb, a 6’5″ transfer from Penn State, is knocking down 36.4% of his long range attempts. He’s primarily a perimeter player, with nearly 80% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. Babb’s length in the backcourt is also a great boost on defense, and provides the Cyclones with an edge on the glass. He also runs the floor really well, which is huge for a team that can sometimes get bogged down in its half-court sets.

While Babb is seemingly glued to the perimeter on the offensive end, the team’s true marksman is senior Scott Christopherson (No. 11), who has made more than 40% of his attempts so far this year. Shockingly, that number actually represents a decline for the senior, who boasts a career three-point mark of 43%. It’s also worth noting that even Christopherson fits with Iowa State’s Transfer U theme, as he played his freshman season at Marquette in his home state of Wisconsin.

The third guard in Iowa State’s starting five is former Michigan State Spartan Chris Allen (No. 4), who is the closest thing the team has to a starting point guard. Although White can bring the ball up the floor and is the top assist man, Allen is generally the one setting the table on offense. Like Babb and Christopherson, the senior is a threat from outside, where he’s made 35.6% of his attempts. Unlike the other two guards, though, Allen can create shots for himself off the dribble, and does a good job attacking the paint on the bounce to get the defense moving.

Rounding out the starting lineup is Canadian product Melvin Ejim (No. 3), who doesn’t typically put up big numbers, but provides a solid rebounding and defensive presence. In the team’s most recent game, the sophomore was thrust into a bigger role thanks to White’s illness. He responded very well, posting an impressive 15-point, 15-rebound line that included a pair of triples.

The Cyclone bench isn’t used for a ton of minutes, but Coach Hoiberg does have instant offense available in the form of Tyrus McGee (No. 25). An All-American at the junior college level, McGee is an exciting player who can create shots without turning it over. Although he averages less than 20 minutes per game, McGee is fourth on the team in scoring with 9.8 points per game and has a turnover rate of just 10%.

The other primary reserve for Iowa State is Palo, who won the state title in Iowa as a point guard. On a team that lacks a quality floor general, that experience translates into playing time, and he sees the floor for 16 minutes per game. As previously mentioned, Palo does a great job attacking with the dribble and drawing fouls. Unfortunately, he’s not as good when it comes to converting those attempts, sinking just 64.8% of his tries at the charity stripe.

Iowa State also has a pair of frontcourt reserves each averaging about 12 minutes per game in Anthony Booker (No. 22) and freshman Percy Gibson (No. 24). Booker is yet another transfer for Coach Hoiberg, coming to Ames from Southern Illinois. He has a serviceable offensive skillset, but typically just produces on the glass and on the defensive end.

Gibson was the top-rated high school prospect out of Detroit and had originally committed to Dayton. But when Flyer coach Brian Gregory departed for Georgia Tech, assistant Cornell Mann made his way to Ames. Having been recruited by Mann, Gibson made the same switch and ended up at Iowa State. He’s yet to truly explode, but you can already see his skills. Gibson is a long, lean 6’9″, which makes him more mobile than a lot of other bigs, and that leads to some easy buckets and boards.

Keys to the game

1) Lock down the perimeter – Although White is the headlining star on this team, the numbers make it clear that Iowa State wins and loses games behind the arc. The Cyclones will certainly make some threes in this game, but if Texas can limit the damage, they will stand a good chance to win this one on the road.

2) Attack on offense – The Cyclone defense has looked porous at times, falling victim to both dribble penetration and off-ball movement. Teams are constantly abusing them with backdoor cuts, while driving guards often find their trip to the rim is rather easy. If J’Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo play aggressively, the Texas offense should be able to pile up some points.

3) Clean the defensive glass – It’s been a recurring theme in this section of the game previews, but it bears repeating. Texas must limit second-chance points by closing out defensive possessions with rebounds. On paper, Iowa State’s perimeter-oriented attack would seem to make this an easier task, but the ‘Clones are actually one of the 100 best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. The Longhorns have to neutralize White and Ejim on the glass to make sure the sharpshooting Cyclones don’t get extra looks.

With just four games left in the regular season, Texas was in dire need a bounce-back win after suffering their first conference loss of the season on Saturday. Fortunately for Rick Barnes and the Longhorns, the schedule-makers helped out in that department. Texas had the good fortune of hosting the Iowa State Cyclones, Big 12 cellar dwellers, and took care of business in fashion. The Longhorns turned in another brilliant defensive performance and stifled the short-handed Cyclones, coasting to a 76-53 win.

While fans shouldn’t get too excited about thumping the worst team in the conference, the win allowed the team a chance to iron out some wrinkles that had popped up in Lincoln. Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson took advantage of favorable matchups to have great games, while Dogus Balbay played out of his mind for 23 minutes. The Longhorns certainly have much bigger challenges waiting in the next three games, but it’s reassuring to see that the team was able to rebound quickly from one of their most disappointing performances of the season.

What looked good

Hamilton was the Texas player who most needed a shot in the arm, and he found it in a big way on Tuesday night. After shooting just 24% from the field in the team’s previous two games, Hamilton lit up the scoreboard against the Cyclones. He made 50% of his attempts, including 3-of-4 from behind the arc. His two threes in the second half helped fuel a Texas run that extended the team’s lead from just nine at half to more than 20 in a matter of minutes. In the first half, Hamilton even added the rare four-point play after being fouled by Melvin Ejim on a made three.

Thompson also had a breakout night against a smaller Iowa State frontcourt that was without its big defensive presence, 6’11″ Jamie Vanderbeken. Tristan posted a double-double with 17 points and 14 rebounds, while piling up the fouls on the Cyclone bigs. Calvin Godfrey fouled out of the game, while Ejim and Jordan Railey finished with four personals each. Most teams will provide a much stiffer test for Thompson in the post, but it’s a good sign that the team identified the mismatches and mercilessly exploited them.

Gary Johnson also had a double-double against Iowa State, scoring 14 points to go with his 12 rebounds. Perhaps most importantly, Johnson finally took the opportunity to step out and knock down a three-pointer in this game.

As we mentioned last month, Gary is one of the nation’s best shooters when it comes to shooting in the “danger zone,” located from 17-feet out to the three-point arc. It’s the furthest shot on the court that isn’t worth an extra point, so the risk is much greater than the reward. When we ran the numbers back on January 15th, Johnson was scoring 1.2 points per shot in that “danger zone.” It seems a natural progression for the senior to take a few steps back and earn an extra point for the team.

Another senior that chipped in with a quality outing was Dogus Balbay, who kept the Longhorn machine churning in the second half with hustle play all over the court. With the Cyclones sagging off of him in ways not seen since the 2009-10 season, Balbay attacked the paint off the dribble and contributed six points and two assists. More importantly, his active hands on defense deflected numerous passes out of bounds to disrupt the Cyclones, while he added a steal and a pair of impressive blocks late in the game.

As far as the numbers go, the Longhorn performance was absolutely dominant. Texas scored just 11 points in the final 11 minutes of the game, yet still finished with an impressive 23-point victory. The defense, meanwhile, squashed any hopes of an upset by holding the Cyclones scoreless for a combined 7:39 to open and close out the first half.

In terms of efficiency, the Longhorns put up the second-best outing against Iowa State all season. They held the Cyclones to just 0.767 points per possession, thanks largely in part to excellent perimeter defense. Although Iowa State had some open long-range looks early, they missed many of them, and Texas quickly adjusted to lock down the arc. The Cyclones, who were one of the nation’s top fifty teams from long range, managed to make just 25% of their three-point attempts against Texas.

Add in the fact that the Longhorns had a brief stretch in the first half where they were unable to stop Iowa State’s dribble-drive, and those stifling defensive numbers are even more impressive. After grabbing a 4-0 lead out of the gate, Texas allowed the Cyclones to score 13 points in just seven possessions, thanks to four layups and a dunk. Once the Longhorns made the effort to shut down the dribble penetration, Iowa State was limited to mostly contested jumpers. Excluding that four-minute stretch of porous defense, Texas held the Cyclones to an unbelievable 0.656 points per possession.

What needed work

In all honesty, there was very little to nitpick in Tuesday night’s game. The Longhorns had that four-minute stretch of weak defense which we just addressed, but otherwise they appeared impenetrable.

From the free-throw line, the team actually started 10-for-13 before finishing just 3-for-8 down the stretch. That gave the Longhorns a 61.9% success rate at the line, which has unfortunately become par for the course at this point. As usual, Thompson was the main offender, making just one of his six attempts.

Jai Lucas had a disappointing 1-of-7 night from the field, finally breaking through late in the game with a pull-up jumper a few feet inside the arc. Fortunately, the Iowa State game gave Jai a harmless opportunity to work on his shot at game speed. Unfortunately, the extra time didn’t seem to make much of a difference.

It’s essentially a given that Lucas will have to chew up some minutes down the stretch to give the starters some rest. Hopefully, he will be more of a floor manager and less of a shooter in games that are a little more tightly contested. Limiting his playing time to stints in which other scorers are on the floor should help to limit the damage during those stretches.

Up next: at Colorado (16-11 overall, 5-7 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M. CT

With just four games left in the regular season, the Texas Longhorns have the chance to be the first team not named Kansas to win an outright Big 12 title in the last seven years. Before losing to Nebraska on Saturday, that outcome seemed all but guaranteed for Texas. But with that pesky loss now on their record, the Longhorns have almost no margin for error down the stretch. Kansas has only one game left that seems like a possible loss, coming on the final day of the season when they travel to Columbia to take on Mizzou.

Texas, meanwhile, has a handful of tough games left on its plate. Road trips to Colorado and Baylor are certainly not guaranteed wins, and the Longhorns still have to host a Kansas State team that upset the Jayhawks last Monday. Tonight’s tussle with Iowa State is the only “easy” game left for Texas during these last two weeks, so they absolutely have to take care of business in this one.

By the numbers

Offensively, Iowa State ranks in the top third of Division I basketball, but it’s practically all thanks to their three-point shooting. The Cyclones are ranked 48th nationally with a 37.6% mark behind the arc, and they take nearly 38% of their shots from that distance.

Iowa State hardly ever gets to the line, and in fact the Cyclones have a team free-throw rate that is third-worst in the entire country. This is a product of their reliance on jump shots, particularly three-pointers. The low FTR for Iowa State is a welcome sight for the Longhorns, who suffered on Saturday when Gary Johnson had to sit with early foul problems. Against the Cyclones, very few Texas players should be in foul trouble tonight.

The Longhorns will also benefit from the lack of offensive rebounding by Iowa State. The Cyclones grab just 29.7% of their misses, and have struggled even more in conference play, where they have an offensive rebounding mark of just 26.4%. On Saturday, Texas allowed the Cornhuskers to have a field day on the offensive glass, despite the fact that Nebraska also had an offensive rebounding mark below 30% in Big 12 play. The Longhorns simply cannot fail to exploit this advantage in a second-straight game.

Although Iowa State has won just one game in conference play, they have competed in almost every contest. They have six conference losses by six points or less, and have been defeated twice in overtime. While Texas is certainly more talented than the Cyclones, don’t be surprised if Iowa State makes this a much closer game than most are expecting.

Meet the Cyclones

Fatigue is likely a big reason why the Cyclones have fallen short so many times this season. Iowa State has perhaps the thinnest rotation that Texas has faced all year, with only seven men seeing significant playing time. More importantly, the starting five accounts for 81% of the team’s minutes. If the bigger, more physical Longhorns manage to get the Iowa State starters into foul trouble, there isn’t much more in the cupboard for first-year coach Fred Hoiberg.

The Cyclones are led by Diante Garrett, a combo guard who can carry the team with his scoring when he isn’t dishing out assists. Garrett is really the only player on the Iowa State roster who can repeatedly break down opponents off the dribble, which allows him to both get to the rack and create openings for his teammates when defenses react.

Garrett is averaging more than six assists per game, best in the Big 12 by a wide margin. His 17.3 points per game is fifth-best in the league, but his eye-popping numbers are overshadowed by Iowa State’s poor record.

Garrett is joined in the backcourt by sharpshooter Scott Christopherson. The junior from Wisconsin has hit more than 45% of his three-point attempts, a mark that is tops in the Big 12 and 23rd-best in D-I basketball. Christopherson has had four different games in which he’s made at least five three-pointers — including two games in which he sank seven triples — and has made at least one three in every game he’s played this year.

Another scorer in the backcourt is senior Jake Anderson, who arrived in Ames after three years as a starter at Northern Illinois, where he played for former Colorado coach Ricardo Patton. Anderson is actually the team’s best rebounder despite being just 6’2″, as he averages 7.5 boards per game. He can make aggressive moves off the dribble and is smart enough to identify mismatches when he has smaller guards isolated on defense near the paint.

The only other guard to play significant minutes for Coach Hoiberg is Bubu Palo, a sixth man who brings energy off the bench. Palo redshirted his freshman season after being recruited to Ames as a walk-on, and is now providing nearly 15 minutes per game. He can take over ballhandling duties when Garrett needs a breather, as Palo was the starting point guard for his high school team, which won the Iowa state championship in 2009. You may have even heard of one of Palo’s Ames High teammates, a kid by the name of Harrison Barnes.

In the frontcourt, the Cyclones counter Texas’ Toronto connection with their own Canadian product, Melvin Ejim. At 6’6″, the freshman has already shown the ability to defend bigger, more physical players. Unfortunately, he’s also revealed a tendency to get beat by more athletic forwards who can take him off the dribble, like Tech’s Mike Singletary and the Morris twins at Kansas.

Even with that knock against him, Ejim is a solid defender and rebounder, and can score easily inside or with his smooth mid-range jumper. Although he doesn’t shoot it as often as his teammates, Ejim has even shown the ability to occasionally knock down the three.

Also in the frontcourt is Jamie Vanderbeken, an excellent three-point shooter who can pull opposing big men out of the paint with his long-range threat. His ability to score from the perimeter opens up the driving lanes for Garrett and Anderson, and the guards often find Vanderbeken wide open behind the arc when defenses collapse on them in the paint.

Thanks to his prediliction for playing on the perimeter, Vanderbeken’s offensive rebounding numbers are unimpressive for a 6’11″ guy. On defense, though, he plays like a big man. His 1.8 blocks per game are 3rd in the Big 12, and he’s third on the team in defensive rebounding.

Off the bench, Iowa State has two frontcourt options in Calvin Godfrey and Jordan Railey. While Godfrey plays nearly twice as many minutes as Railey, the Cyclones will likely call on both of them for extra minutes against a bigger Texas team tonight. Both forwards have had major issues with foul trouble so far this year, so they will likely have a tough time trying to contain the Longhorn frontcourt in this one.

Keys to the game

The quickest way for Texas to put away the Cyclones tonight is to lock down the perimeter. Besides Garrett, Iowa State lacks any true creators, so the Longhorns must make sure that the Cyclone sharpshooters aren’t getting open looks from behind the arc. Garrett simply cannot beat Texas on his own, and as long as his outlets are being covered, he also won’t be able to kill the Horns with well-timed kick-outs for three.

The Longhorns also need to control the defensive glass tonight. They did a terrible job of this on Saturday, and it ultimately cost them the game in Lincoln. With the Cyclones guaranteed to take a lot of long-range jumpers tonight, Texas cannot afford to let the long caroms get away from them. The Longhorns have to grab those missed shots and limit the number of chances Iowa State has to do damage from three-point range.

Finally, Texas must abuse Iowa State inside. Kansas absolutely decimated the smaller Cyclone lineup behind great performances by the Morris twins, who averaged a combined 40 points and 23 rebounds in their two games against Iowa State. If Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson can get going early against the Cyclones, the Longhorns will rack up the points and also hang some fouls on a thin ISU frontcourt.

Not a ton of time to write about last night’s win, as the quarterfinals tip off in a little over an hour. With that time constraint in mind, let’s quickly hit some of our key thoughts about last night’s game.

1) Damion James and Dexter Pittman looked like leaders – While Texas struggled to put the Cyclones away for the entire ballgame, Damion James tried his hardest to do it single-handedly. Midway through the second half, he became a human vacuum, grabbing practically every board in sight. When Iowa State went over seven minutes without a single field goal, a huge cause of their offensive ineptitude was James’ dominance on the glass. The Cyclones were simply unable to get second chances.

Meanwhile, Dexter Pittman finally showed some swagger as the Longhorns started to put it together. While Big Pitt still had some early issues with making weak moves to the basket that resulted in missed shots, his 19 minutes on the court were extremely efficient. Pittman scored 16 points and grabbed five boards on the night. Having a confident Dexter in the middle instead of a frustrated one makes a huge difference in not only the team’s performance, but also its entire demeanor.

2) Gary Johnson doesn’t have to be the sixth man – There was some theorizing that Gary Johnson didn’t work his way into the starting lineup very often this season because he just felt more comfortable coming off the bench. But after posting a 15/10 double-double against the Cyclones, Johnson seems right at home as a part of the starting five. The junior forward played 39 minutes, including the entire first half. With Pittman’s performance still unpredictable from night to night, Gary’s emergence as a breakout star has been the most exciting storyline down the stretch.

3) J’Covan Brown is back in the doghouse – When Justin Mason picked up his second foul just six-and-a-half minutes into the game, Jai Lucas hopped off the bench to take over point guard duties. Lucas responded well, truly playing the role of bus driver. He didn’t do anything flashy, but didn’t make any mistakes either. He simply made sure the team ended up where it needed to be.

What’s worthy of a raised eyebrow, however, is the fact that J’Covan Brown stayed on the bench until the final three minutes of the half. Brown certainly struggled against Baylor on Saturday — but honestly, which Longhorns didn’t? — and it seems that put him firmly back in Rick Barnes’ doghouse.

While Lucas has shown his ability to be a serviceable point, he lacks the slashing ability that Brown can bring to the table. Texas settled for a lot of threes and long jumpers, something that could have been avoided if there was a guard on the floor with strong driving ability. And, of course, there’s no reason that both Lucas and Brown couldn’t have been on the floor at the same time.

Texas moves on to face Baylor in the quarterfinals tonight. The Longhorns are hoping to avoid a third loss to the Bears this season, and a fourth consecutive one. We’ll be back with a brief game preview in between the afternoon and evening sessions. In the meantime, keep up with all the action from the Sprint Center by following the LRT Twitter.

Texas makes its first road trip of conference play as they travel to Ames, Iowa tonight, but there’s a much bigger “first” in play when the team hits the court at 7 P.M. The Longhorns will be playing their first game in school history as the top-ranked team in the nation.

At first blush, the match-up with Iowa State seems like it should be a cakewalk, just another notch in the win column as the Longhorns march on to next week’s showdowns with Kansas State and Connecticut. But regardless of how good or bad the Cyclones are in any given year, Hilton Coliseum still manages to be a house of horrors for visiting opponents. The venue even has a name for its own special brand of home-court advantage — they call it “Hilton Magic.”

Add in the fact that every team plays with extra effort to knock off number one, and consider the always-dangerous possibility that players start buying into their own media hype, and you could have a recipe for an inexplicable stumble in an “easy” game. That’s why Coach Rick Barnes told his team on Monday afternoon “I can’t honestly tell you who the No. 1 team was in the country on the second week of January last year. But I do know who won the national championship.” Maintaining focus the rest of the way will be necessary for Texas to avoid an embarrassing pratfall.

By the numbers

Despite the fact that former Cyclone Wes Johnson is tearing it up for Syracuse, the current Iowa State squad is much improved from last season. Where once there was only Craig Brackins and a cast of underachieving role players, now there is depth and talent.

As a result, the Cyclones are enjoying efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball that rank in the top 100 in the country. They average a per-possession differential of +1.22 points, and as a result, they no longer have to play slow games where they attempt to limit the number of possessions.

The key component of the Iowa State offense is their three-point accuracy. While the Cyclones don’t actually take a ton of long-range looks, their incredible success rate from behind the arc opens up the inside game for their big men. Iowa State has made more than 42% of their three-point attempts, but still take nearly 70% of their shots from inside the arc.

Defensively, Iowa State provides a complete change of pace from the Colorado team that Texas just faced. While the Buffaloes constantly put their opponents on the free-throw line, only seven teams in the country do that less often than the Cyclones. For a Texas team that often struggles from the stripe, this could be a very good thing for the offense.

Although the Longhorns do struggle with free throws, Iowa State is yet another opponent that will have similar problems from the charity stripe. Just like Arkansas and North Carolina, the Cyclones leave a ton of points at the line, making just 63.3% of their attempts so far this year.

Meet the Cyclones

The only household name on the Iowa State roster is Craig Brackins (16.9 PPG/8.1 RPG). The junior toyed with heading to the NBA after last season, but returned for another year and was rewarded with Preseason All-American honors. At 6’10″, 230 pounds, Brackins is an extremely versatile player who can shoot from anywhere on the floor and can adequately handle any position in the lineup. His wide-ranging skill set allows Coach Greg McDermott much more flexibility with lineups, and it gives opposing defenses fits when trying to match up with him. Brackins is the team’s most accurate three-point shooter so far, hitting 52% of his 27 attempts, and that long-range threat allows him to pull bigger defenders out of the paint.

Newcomer Marquis Gilstrap (14.3 PPG/8.4 RPG) is a senior playing in his first season for the Cyclones. He transferred after playing one year at Gulf Coast Community College in Florida, where he suffered a horrible knee injury that sidelined him for all of 2006 and 2007. Iowa State is hoping to get him another year with a medical redshirt, but if this is truly his last collegiate season, he is certainly making the most of it.

Gilstrap is an incredibly athletic wing player with great handles, and can also score from anywhere on the court. His rebounding numbers are tops on the team, and although he’s only taken 39 threes, he’s made 41% of them. Just like Brackins, Gilstrap is a tough match-up, although he lacks some of the size to bang inside with the bigger post players of the Big 12.

The floor leader for Iowa State is Diante Garrett (8.4 PPG/5.4 APG), a 6’4″ guard who has a solid shot, but prefers to facilitate the offense. He can break down defenders off the dribble and get to the rack, but more often than not, Garrett dishes it off to one of his bigs when he penetrates the lane. He’s improved his defense in the offseason, which has earned him even more playing time at a position where the Cyclones are loaded with talent.

One of those other talented point guards is freshman Chris Colvin (3.2 PPG/2.1 APG). He was one of the nation’s top prospects at his position and provides solid defense with his really long wingspan. Fortunately for Texas, the freshman is suspended for this game for a violation of team rules. That suspension likely means more playing time tonight for sophomore guard Dominique Buckley (1.6 PPG), another steady ballhandler who provides depth at the point.

Also in the backcourt is German gunner Lucca Staiger (9.0 PPG/1.9 RPG). He leads the team in threes with 42, and is sinking them at nearly a 43% clip so far this season. He’s not very adept at creating his own shot, but the Cyclones are good when it comes to freeing him up for open looks. If they can set good screens tonight, Staiger will certainly knock down a few clutch triples.

The most surprising player of the season has to be big man Justin Hamilton. He’s a 6’11″ sophomore from Utah who brought low expectations with him to Ames. He had a few breakout games in his freshman campaign, but has improved to become a consistent contributor this year. Hamilton started in each of the Cyclones’ first 14 games, but a head injury kept him out of Saturday’s win over North Dakota State.

If Hamilton is healthy enough to play tonight, his performance down low against the Texas frontcourt will be integral. Fail to produce, and the Longhorns can focus on shutting down Brackins and Gilstrap. Play well, and suddenly Texas has its hands full picking which poison to swallow.

Providing more depth in the frontcourt is junior college transfer LaRon Dendy (7.4 PPG/3.4 RPG). He is a big, long player who can really hang in the air to get rebounds and tip-ins. His scrappy style and hustle for loose balls really reminds me of Gary Johnson, and should the two directly match up tonight, it ought to be fun to see who wins the 50/50 balls. The biggest knock on Dendy, however, is his pitiful 47% mark at the free throw line, where the comparisons to Johnson quickly end.

Coming off the bench for Coach McDermott are a pair of marksmen in Jamie Vanderbeken (4.1 PPG) and Scott Christopherson (7.3 PPG). Vanderbeken is a senior whose minutes have been limited by the influx of talent to the Ames campus, but he still makes his presence known in his shorter stints on the court. He has knocked down 50% of his threes this year, although he has taken only 16 from behind the arc. Christopherson, meanwhile, has the same 50% success rate, but has put up 34 tries. A 6’3″ sophomore, Christopherson is a transfer from Marquette and is coming off of knee surgery in the off-season.

The final player in the ten-man rotation that the Cyclones employ is sophomore Charles Boozer (3.7 PPG/1.6 RPG). The younger brother of Utah Jazz star Carlos Boozer, the 6’3″ guard had a breakout game on Saturday against North Dakota State. After averaging just 2.6 points per contest coming into it, Boozer had 19 points filling in for the suspended Colvin. He did it with hustle and an impressive 7-of-11 shooting night, including 3-of-6 from long range. Look for Boozer to again grab a bunch of minutes at the two against Texas.

Keys to the game

The Longhorns have one of the nation’s best interior defenses statistically, and that will be tested against a deeper Iowa State frontcourt than we’ve seen in recent years. But where Texas is likely most vulnerable is on the perimeter, where the Cyclones are liable to get hot at a moment’s notice. In most shocking upsets, you’ll find that the less-talented team hit their fair share of three-pointers, and ISU is certainly capable of doing that tonight. Texas must limit the damage from long range.

If the Cyclones aren’t scoring three at a time, they are going to need a ton of points from their junior stud Brackins. While Gilstrap and Dendy are solid additions, they won’t be able to beat Texas on their own. If the Longhorns can turn Brackins into a mere mortal, it would seem that Iowa State has almost no chance to pull off the upset.

Our third thing to watch tonight is not a key, but rather a historical milestone. Damion James enters tonight’s game just eleven rebounds shy of claiming the all-time Big 12 crown, currently held by Kansas’ Nick Collison. It’s no guarantee that DaMo will hit the magic number against this Iowa State frontcourt, but there’s still a good possibility that the double-double machine could break the record tonight.

It’s a mess of sleet, ice, and snow outside as the Big 12 Championships roll into the second day of action. Although temperatures are expected to be back in the 70′s within a week, Mother Nature decided that folks traveling to OKC for the tournament would just love a three-day visit from some bitterly cold weather. So rather than going out in this last gasp of winter that has gripped the city, we’ll take a look back at all of yesterday’s action from the Ford Center.

[11] Texas Tech 88, [6] Texas A&M 83

The best game of the day was certainly the last one, although it seemed like the nightcap between Texas A&M and Texas Tech was well on its way to being the worst of the four first-round match-ups. In fact, when we finally threw in the towel at halftime and hit the exits, the Aggies led by 19 points, and there were no more than 1,500 hardy fans remaining in the seats. But those who stuck around were treated to the single most-impressive performance in the history of the Big 12 tourney.

Mike Singletary — a forward whose role all season long was simply that of an effective sixth man — scored 35 points in the second half, including 29 straight for Texas Tech, and led the Red Raiders back from a 22-point deficit to steal the win. Oddly enough, we were joking midway through the first half that Singletary was Tech’s entire offense. At the time, his four points were all that Tech had mustered in the first seven minutes of the game. Who knew how accurate our wisecracks would actually be?

[9] Baylor 65, [8] Nebraska 49

While Nebraska’s four-guard sets have sometimes made it difficult to rebound against bigger teams, it seemed that a match-up with the similarly guard-oriented Baylor Bears might hide that weakness for Coach Doc Sadler and the Cornhuskers. That was anything but true in this one, as the Bears outrebounded Nebraska by a ridiculous 43-18 margin. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Kevin Rogers grabbed more boards than Nebraska all by himself. Rogers posted a double-double with 20 rebounds and ten points.

It’s also notable that this game started the day off with three technical fouls. There were three more in later action, and an additional warning on the Oklahoma State bench even after they had already been tagged with a T. Despite the temperatures outside, it was quite heated inside the Ford Center.

[7] Oklahoma State 81, [10] Iowa State 67

Perhaps the most heated of all the action came in the prime-time game, featuring the Cowboys from OSU. The Pokes hail from Stillwater, just 66 miles NNE of the Ford Center, and the arena was packed to the gills with folks wearing road-cone orange. Craig Brackins took charge early for Iowa State, as he often does, and drew not only tons of whistles from the refs, but the ire of the OSU faithful as well. The fans grew more and more restless as the fouls piled up for Oklahoma State, while the Cyclones stayed foul-free.

With seven minutes left in the first half, the Pokes had seven team fouls to the zero for Iowa State, and some additional commentary from the OSU bench heading into the media timeout resulted in a technical foul. The irate crowd absolutely ate up the tactical maneuver from Coach Travis Ford, and when the Cyclones were finally whistled for their first infraction with only three minutes left in the first half, mock cheers rained down on the court and Ford slapped the scorers table so hard it could be heard from across the arena.

Interestingly enough, foul calls in the second half were much more even until Iowa State was forced to intentionally hack at the Pokes in the final minutes. It’s tough to tell if this was a result of Ford’s lobbying or of OSU’s newfound commitment to pounding the ball down to Marshall Moses in the paint, but the newfound whistle equity allowed the Cowboys to cruise to a first-round win.

Top 25 Action

#11 Texas Longhorns 78, Baylor Bears 72 – The Longhorns escaped Waco with their 23rd consecutive win over Baylor, leaning on a nineteen point night from sharpshooter A.J. Abrams. The senior guard was hot early, but went through long stretches of absolute silence, including a nine-minute scoreless bout to open the second half. Damion James logged another double-double in the winning effort, posting a line of fourteen and twelve. Full post-game thoughts and numbers will be headed your way this afternoon.

#16 Purdue Boilermakers 64, Wisconsin Badgers 63 – He only had eight total points on the night, but Robbie Hummel provided three huge ones when he hit the go-ahead trifecta with a minute left to propel Purdue to their fifth-straight win. Meanwhile, the Badgers continued their free fall through the standings, suffering their fifth consecutive loss. It was also their third loss this season at the friendly confines of the Kohl Center after posting an impressive 113-7 home record during Coach Bo Ryan’s first eight years in Madison.

Mississippi Rebels 85, #24 Kentucky Wildcats 80 – It was a rough welcome to the Top 25 for Kentucky, who lost their first game since cracking the poll on Monday. David Huertas dropped 21 for the Rebs — nineteen of them in the second half — to earn their first victory in ten tries against the Wildcats. The loss was the first conference blemish for Kentucky, who still holds the half-game lead over Tennessee, a team they soundly beat on the road earlier this month.

Big 12 Games

Colorado Buffaloes 55, Iowa State Cyclones 49 – Jeff Bzdelik and the Buffaloes shook the monkey off their back last night, winning their first conference game and climbing into a four-way tie for most futile team in the Big 12. Despite allowing Iowa State a robust 48% success rate from the field, Colorado was able to claim the home victory by sinking seven more free throws than their opponents. Craig Brackins once again led the way for the ‘Clones, dropping in 24 points in the losing effort. The performance marked the seventh time in his last nine games that Brackins has cracked the 20-point plateau.

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.