They say that you always remember the ones that got away. For the Texas Longhorns, last night’s loss will certainly be one that sticks with them for some time, especially if they are left out of the NCAA field on Selection Sunday. Trailing for much of the game, Texas clawed back into it in the final minutes, aided in no small part by horrendous free-throw shooting by Kansas State. After a furious comeback, Texas found itself down just two points on the final possession before Martavious Irving stripped the ball and the chance for victory away from Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown.

Against a bigger, more physical Kansas State team, the Longhorns found themselves in foul trouble quickly. Jonathan Holmes and Jaylen Bond picked up two personals in just a few minutes, and the Longhorns went to a zone to protect their interior players. For the second-straight year, Rodney McGruder made them pay with a pair of clutch threes to spark a first-half run. K-State made 7-of-12 from behind the arc before heading to the locker room, but the Longhorns still managed to keep it within one point at the break.

A nip and tuck second half got away from the Longhorns in the final minutes, as Kansas State rebuilt their lead to seven with just 1:14 left on the clock. The Wildcats missed six of eight free throws over the final 74 seconds, while the Longhorns executed well under pressure to find themselves down just two points with the ball and 20 seconds on the clock. After bringing it across the timeline, Kabongo and Brown tried to execute a dribble handoff beyond the arc, allowing Irving and the Wildcats to ice the game with a steal and McGruder fast-break dunk.

What looked good

For the first time in weeks, freshman Julien Lewis started hot out of the gate. He knocked down his only two shots in the game’s first seven minutes, but spent a majority of his time on the bench thanks to foul trouble. Lewis eventually did foul out of the game, seeing the court for only seven minutes.

While Lewis’ bounceback performance was hampered by the whistle, Sheldon McClellan broke through in a big way. He scored 19 points on the night courtesy of a 7-of-13 shooting line. The only major knock on McClellan’s performance was that he played a bit out of control at times, a rarity for a guy who has been among the best nationally when it comes to protecting the ball. Sheldon had just two turnovers, but there were a few other situations where he and the Longhorns were lucky to retain possession when he was going too fast or drove into a dangerous spot on the floor.

The offensive resurgence for Lewis and McClellan was a welcome change after the pair struggled in the team’s previous four games. Against Iowa State, Oklahoma State, A&M, and Missouri, the two freshmen were just 21-of-78 (26.9%) from the floor. In the losing effort against Kansas State, they combined to shoot 9-of-15 (60%) from the field. While J’Covan Brown has been scoring in bunches, the Longhorns clearly need more scoring options. If Lewis and McClellan can continue to provide that in the coming weeks, the prognosis for Texas will be much sunnier than it was a few days ago.

If Lewis and McClellan can’t keep up their hot shooting, Myck Kabongo could certainly be the team’s second scoring option. Just as he did against Missouri, Kabongo posted a double-double, scoring 14 points to go with 10 assists. Once again, he was aggressive right off the bat, as K-State’s Angel Rodriguez had a very difficult time keeping Myck in front of him. When the help defense tried to cut off Kabongo’s angle to the rim, he consistently found open teammates to set up easy looks or draw fouls.

One of the most-frequent recipients of those assists was Clint Chapman, who finished with 11 points, seven of them coming at the line. When he wasn’t getting the dumpoffs in the lane, Chapman was also doing a good job sealing post defenders to keep the driving lanes open for the Texas guards.

It was also key that Clint kept himself out of foul trouble in this one until late in the game. He spent quite a bit of time on the bench against Missouri, and the team’s post defense suffered without him on the floor in that game. Against Thomas Robinson and Kansas on Saturday, the Longhorns will need Clint to once again avoid the fouls and play big minutes.

Texas also benefited from great free throw shooting to keep themselves in the game. The Longhorns made their first 14 free throws, and finished 19-for-21 on the night. In a game where Kansas State nearly blew the game with a terrible performance at the line, the Longhorns took full advantage of the freebies. Now that Kabongo is attacking with more confidence, the points he and Brown generate at the line will be key to keeping the offense humming.

As the numbers predicted, Texas did also a great job on the offensive glass against Kansas State. The Horns grabbed 46.1% of their misses, and turned those second chances into 11 points. Texas has now posted offensive rebounding percentages of greater than 46% in the last two games, but the Longhorns will find it tough to continue to rebound that well against KU on Saturday.

What needed work

While the offensive rebounding numbers were solid, the defensive numbers were awful. Once again, the stats for the two teams predicted that this would happen, but the Wildcat offensive boards were still daggers in such a close game. What was especially crippling were the three times that Kansas State got the ball back on missed free throws. Twice those second chances came from offensive boards, while the third came in crunch time when the Longhorns simply bobbled the ball out of bounds.

Texas also struggled with turnovers throughout the game, particularly when they dug a huge hole in the first half. The Longhorns lost the ball 16 times on the night, with 10 of those miscues coming in the first half. Those mistakes ended 22.3% of the possessions that Texas had, which is a devastating number in a game decided by just four points.

Some of those turnovers came when the Horns tried to push the tempo and beat the Wildcats in transition, but ended up lofting the ball well over the head of their teammates downcourt. It’s definitely worth going after those easy transition points, but the Texas guards might want to work on their touch in the next few practices so they can be a little more accurate on those full-court passes.

The worst turnover was of course the final one, which erased Texas’ final possession and gave the Wildcats a game-clinching dunk. A big part of the problem was that the Horns were out of timeouts and couldn’t draw up a play, but the guards have to realize that a dribble handoff in that situation brings an extra defender to the ball and eliminates the good spacing that you want on a final iso set. If anything can be taken from that disastrous possession, you have to think Kabongo and Brown won’t make that mistake at the end of any future games.

Unfortunately, it was a rather inefficient night for Brown even beyond that last-second mistake. Kansas State did an excellent job defending him with different guards in an effort to spread out the inevitable fouls they would pick up guarding him. The variety of defenders also served a second purpose, as it seemed to make it tougher for Brown to consistently penetrate. McGruder did solid work defending the Texas guard, but Will Spradling came up particularly huge in the second half, sticking on Brown like a dryer sheet. Without much room to work with, J’Covan shot just 8-of-28, including 4-of-14 from behind the arc.

The big picture

This was a loss that Texas fans could be replaying in their head on Selection Sunday. With the Longhorns hovering right on the bubble in practically every major bracket projection, every single win is big, but road wins against contenders are like résumé gold.

Texas showed great poise in fighting back from a 15-point deficit and again when down seven in the waning minutes, but the Longhorns failed to execute when it mattered most. Unfortunately, when the selection committee sequesters itself in Indianapolis in a few weeks, all they will see on their Nitty Gritty reports is an L next to this game.

Even the most optimistic Longhorn fan probably looked at this difficult six-game stretch on the schedule and hoped for two wins. While moral victories don’t count for much in the grand scheme of things, hopefully the performances in Columbia and Manhattan will give the young Longhorns confidence that they can get revenge at home and split the season series with Missouri and Kansas State.

Up next: vs. #7/7 Kansas (15-3 overall, 5-0 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns continue their brief road trip with yet another test, taking on a talented Kansas State team at the always-dangerous Bramlage Coliseum. This is just one more tough match-up for the Longhorns in the midst of a brutal six-game stretch that includes four games against teams currently ranked in the Top 10.

The Wildcats are much better than their conference record would indicate, as they’ve been forced to take on the league’s three best teams — Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri — in their first four games. Kansas State managed to defend their home court against the Tigers, but stumbled on the road against Oklahoma on Saturday.

Coach Frank Martin was so mad with his team prior to the loss against the Sooners that he made five players run stairs for more than two hours rather than practice. One can only imagine what the team has been put through in the three days since that loss, so you can be sure they will be angry and hungry for a win when they hit the court tonight against Texas.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are not a good shooting team, but still manage to be have one of the most efficient offenses in the country thanks to strong work on the glass and an ability to get to the line. High offensive rebounding percentages and free-throw rates are a trademark of Martin’s teams, and this year’s edition is no exception. The Wildcats are currently 5th-best in the land when it comes to reclaiming their misses, grabbing more than 42% of their opportunities. They also shoot nearly one free throw for every two field goal attempts, a free-throw rate that is 17th-best in Division I.

That success carries over to the defensive side of the ball, where Kansas State has one of the 20 best defensive efficiency marks in Division I, holding opponents to just 0.894 points per possession. Fortunately for the Longhorns, that defensive intensity has let up against the better opponents of the Big 12, as K-State’s conference opponents have scored nearly 1.05 points per possession. It was the suddenly spotty Wildcat defense that had Coach Martin angry enough to dole out that marathon stair session as punishment, so you’d have to think the team made some adjustments leading up to this game.

On paper, the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams match up in an interesting way. The Longhorns reclaim their missed shots with regularity, while K-State doesn’t close out defensive possessions. On the other end of the court, UT struggles to get defensive boards, while K-State is dominant on the offensive glass. With both teams so strong on the offensive boards, this could come down to who makes the most of their second chances.

Both teams also send their opponents to the line quite a bit, with their defensive free-throw rates ranking in the bottom 100 of Division I hoops. Just like the rebounding numbers, that weakness matches up poorly with the opposition’s strength, as both teams also get to the line quite often. While that’s a good sign for a Texas team that typically needs to manufacture points, it also means that on defense the Horns will likely be called for quite a few fouls, something that is problematic with such a short bench.

Meet the Wildcats

Kansas State has a rotation of eight players this season, and although Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly have exhausted their eligibility, there are still quite a few familiar faces. The Wildcats return three starters from last year’s team, where they were essentially role players supporting the team’s bearded star. This season, the focus is on a pair of those returning starters who have helped K-State exceed all preseason expectations.

The first of those two veterans is Rodney McGruder (No. 22), who Texas fans will remember all-too-well from his three-point barrage in Austin last season. McGruder was not only an excellent long-range shooter for K-State last year, but also actually led the team in rebounds. This season, he’s claimed the team lead in points, as he’s taken over the role of penetrating scorer from Pullen.

As a result of his new role, McGruder is taking far less threes this season and has seen his numbers drop off. This year, he’s only attempting about a third of his shots from behind the arc, and only connecting on 34.4% of them. Instead, the junior is putting the ball on the floor and attacking the paint, where he loves to elevate and put up soft floaters. He has excellent body control to avoid the charge, so there’s little that defenders can do when McGruder pulls up besides stand tall and hope that his touch is off.

Jamar Samuels (No. 32) is another of the returning starters for K-State, and like McGruder, his role with the team has changed. With Kelly on the roster last year, Samuels was able to use his face-up game with more regularity. As a guy who can blow by other big men yet also body up with them in the post, he offers excellent flexibility on the offensive end.

Without Kelly on the team, Samuels has had to take on more of the physical role, and as a result he’s now manufacturing a ton of his points. He’s tops on the team with nearly seven boards per game, and his hard work on the offensive glass leads to a ton of free throws. Jamar’s free-throw rate is just under 90%, meaning he nearly takes one free throw for every field goal attempt.

The third returning starter is guard Will Spradling (No. 55), and as you can probably guess, his role has changed as well. Used more as an off-guard last season, this year he’s taking over the point guard duties. The son of a coach, he’s proven to be an adept facilitator, leading the team in assists while still finding time to show off his deadly three-point shot. Spradling also moves really well without the ball, so Texas cannot afford to lose him after he passes it off.

Joining Spradling in the backcourt is Martavious Irving (No. 3), a good defender who pressures the ball and can create points with his D. Offensively, he’s not much of a threat, but is usually good for a nice feed or two through traffic. At the moment, it appears he’s in Martin’s doghouse, as he was limited to just 15 minutes against Oklahoma. The coach wouldn’t say which five players he put through the stair workout, but did say that the box score could shed some light on the mystery.

Another starter who was probably a part of the punished quintet is 7-footer Jordan Henriquez (No. 21). He played just eight minutes against the Sooners, but will see much more playing time tonight if Coach Martin has finished making a point. Henriquez is an excellent post defender with great shot-blocking skills, and has even started developing a face-up game on the offensive end. He’s shown the ability to knock down short and mid-range jumpers, but still lacks the consistency and confidence to make it a big part of his game.

The other big man for the Wildcats is freshman Thomas Gipson (No. 42), from Cedar Hill, Texas. At 6’7″, 275 pounds, Gipson looks nothing like an 18-year old, and that strong body has allowed him to immediately make an impact at the college level. The freshman doesn’t have much offensive game outside of the paint, but he has a nice jump hook and is a beast on the boards.

Sixth man Shane Southwell (No. 1) is used mostly for his rebounding and defensive work, but he’s also an excellent passer. The 6’6″ guard from Harlem has the vision of a point guard, and often sets up the big men with great feeds from the perimeter. He can also put the ball on the floor and drive from the wings, but prefers to get looks for his teammates.

The other Wildcat seeing significant minutes off the bench is tiny guard Angel Rodriguez (No. 13), yet another talented Miami product brought to the Little Apple thanks to Martin’s past as a high school coach in the Magic City. Rodriguez is another active perimeter defender and penetrates the lane well despite not having blazing speed. He sat the entire Oklahoma game as a result of poor play against Baylor and a lack of effort in practice, so his role tonight could be limited.

With Coach Martin using the bench as a teaching tool, some of the lesser-used Wildcats have seen a recent spike in minutes. Guard Jeremy Jones (No. 24) had a strong first half against OU with 12 points, but hurt his ankle and hardly played in the second. Freshman wing Nino Williams (No. 11) could also see more playing time tonight, and could create match-up problems with his ability to attack off the dribble.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chance points – Kansas State often needs second and third chances to make their offensive trips count, so the Longhorns will have to work hard to keep the Wildcats off the glass. K-State clearly has the advantage inside, so there’s no doubt that they will still get their share of offensive rebounds. Texas will just have to try to limit those boards, and also prevent K-State from getting easy putbacks when they do reclaim their misses.

2) Avoid foul trouble – The physical Kansas State frontline is a match-up nightmare for Texas, and their ability to draw fouls and get to the line could really expose the thin Texas frontcourt. The Longhorns were decimated inside by Ricardo Ratliffe on Saturday when Clint Chapman was on the bench with foul trouble, so he’ll have to avoid the whistles tonight. Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes will have to do the same, as Texas needs all the rebounding help it can get.

3) Be aggressive with the ball – While Kansas State gets to the line quite often, they also frequently send their opponents there. The Longhorn guards and wings need to be aggressive with the basketball and attack the defense. The Wildcats have been uncharacteristically weak with their perimeter defense of late, so the opportunity is there. Texas finally has a good free-throw shooting team this season, so the Horns can overcome some of their offensive woes by earning their points the hard way.

If Rick Barnes and the Longhorns could have their way, the month of February would disappear from the calendar. In 2008, the Longhorns went on a perfect 8-0 march through the month of February, and then cruised all the way to the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament. Since then, Texas has posted a 13-11 mark during the last three Februaries and has failed to make it out of the second round of the Big Dance. Last night, the Longhorns continued their February blues, as they closed out their home schedule with a disappointing loss to Kansas State, the team’s third defeat in its last four games.

Kansas State stifled Texas with stout interior defense, while the Longhorns went completely cold from long range. On the offensive end, the Wildcats rode a strong second-half performance from Jacob Pullen and the hot shooting of Rodney McGruder to win their seventh game in the last eight.

What looked good

The Longhorns attacked the strong K-State frontcourt early and often. Tristan Thompson played nothing like a freshman, scoring 18 first-half points to carry Texas through the first half. The big man even made four out of his five free throw attempts, a shocking number considering his season average was just south of 48% coming into the game.

The Longhorns also benefited from strong rebounding in the first twenty minutes, reclaiming 48% of their misses. With the team shooting so poorly, the offensive rebounds helped to mask the inefficiency and allowed Texas to earn second-chance points that kept them ahead for nearly the entire first half.

The early defense from Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph on All-American Jacob Pullen also helped Texas maintain their narrow lead. While big man Curtis Kelly was hitting fadeaway jumpers like they were layups, Pullen was practically a non-factor. Balbay and Joseph fought through screens and stayed right in his shirt, limiting him to a 2-of-7 start from the field.

What needed work

Unfortunately, the game was once again a tale of two halves. While the first half was far from great for the Longhorns, the second one was a complete disaster. Texas opened the second stanza with a scoring drought of nearly five minutes, letting the Wildcats claim the lead and build it as large as six points before Jordan Hamilton finally made a bucket with his foot on the three-point line.

That basket was only Hamilton’s second of the entire game, and it came after he had already missed ten shots and turned it over three times. His offensive attack consisted of trying to shake his man off the dribble, but the Wildcats were prepared every time. When Hamilton attacked from the wings, he was met with extra defensive resistance, but never knew what he was doing with the ball. It would be nice to give him credit for not forcing up a shot every time, but in the rare cases he did try to make a pass, he waited until he was already in midair or tried to throw it through the legs of about 18 different people.

In the last five games, Hamilton is just 26-of-85 from the floor (30.6%). In the three losses to Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State, the sophomore is just 9-of-28 from behind the arc (32.1%), a far cry from the 41.5% mark he posted in Texas’ first ten conference wins.

The key difference is that Hamilton’s three-point attempts now mostly come off of the dribble, oftentimes with a defender nearby. When the Texas offense was clicking through the month of January, Hamilton was coming off of curls for lightning-quick catch-and-shoot plays, which he was knocking down with regularity. Now, Hamilton is having to create his looks with his hands instead of his feet, and it’s killing the Longhorn offense.

The rest of the Longhorns were just as cold from the field. While Thompson was carrying the team, the rest of the Texas lineup combined to shoot just 25.9% from the field. The Longhorns made just three of their first 14 three-pointers, before J’Covan Brown drilled a pair in the final minute to make things interesting. The 27.8% mark behind the arc was the worst for Texas since going 2-of-8 in a blowout win over A&M at Reed Arena.

Defensively, the second half was an embarrassment. For a team that was posting historic defensive efficiency numbers just three weeks ago, the abundance of complete breakdowns in the half-court set was completely unacceptable. The Wildcats were able to get to the rack with no problem in the second half, scoring 14 points in the paint during the final 20 minutes.

Meanwhile, Rodney McGruder, a 42% career three-point shooter, constantly found himself wide open in the corner on kickouts. While the Longhorns were selling out to stop the drive, they seemingly forgot how to close out on shooters, and McGruder drilled four key three-pointers to make them pay. Just as with Colorado’s Levi Knutson on Saturday, Texas completely ignored the scouting report and consistently lost the best pure shooter on the floor.

A final point to illustrate the defensive collapse of the Longhorns is the sudden ballooning of their opponents’ effective field goal percentage. Fellow tempo-free stat nerds will already be familiar with the concept, but allow me a brief explanation. Essentially, eFG is an alteration of the classic field goal percentage that gives extra weight to the three point shot. Since a three is worth 1.5 times the points of a regular shot, it is worth that much in the calculation of the shooting percentage.

During Texas’ 11-game winning streak to open conference play, the Longhorns held opponents to an eFG of just 39.2%. In their three losses to Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State, the Longhorns have allowed an eFG of 55.5%. Texas is not just losing games. The team is having an outright defensive collapse.

Next up: at Baylor (18-10 overall, 7-7 Big 12); Saturday, 8 P.M.

Just three weeks ago, Texas was the talk of the college basketball. The Longhorns stampeded through a brutal five-game stretch that included four games against ranked opponents, winning them all by double-digits. They ended Kansas’ seemingly interminable home-court winning streak at 69 games, and shot to the top line of every bracketologist’s S-curve.

The last two weekends changed all of that. Texas dropped back-to-back road games against Nebraska and Colorado, two teams mired in the middle of the Big 12 standings. While losing on the road in a major conference is never a shock, the manner in which the Longhorns stumbled in Lincoln and Boulder has fans concerned. Issues that plagued the team last season have suddenly reappeared, and Texas seems to have lost its killer instinct.

With two conference losses now on the ledger, Texas has lost its edge in the conference race. The Longhorns and Jayhawks are starting the final week of the season in a dead heat, but the two teams seem to be headed in decidedly different directions. If Texas has any designs on a conference title, they must bounce back against a nasty Kansas State team tonight. If Texas comes out with a stagnant offense and lackadaisical defense once more, it could be the harbinger of a very short March for the Horns.

By the numbers

As always, Frank Martin has his Wildcats playing excellent defense. Nationally, their adjusted defensive efficiency of 0.911 points per possession is ranked 25th, but they are just as strong in the tough Big 12. K-State is third in the league behind Texas and Kansas, allowing just 1.009 points each time down the floor.

The most surprising number for Kansas State’s defense is their turnover percentage. In a league with the high-pressure Missouri Tigers, the Wildcats actually have the best TO% mark in conference play. K-State has forced conference opponents into miscues on 22.7% of their possessions, and has forced turnover percentages north of 25% in six different league games.

Offensively, Kansas State uses an excellent frontcourt to fuel their scoring. While the Wildcats have an effective field goal percentage that is right in the middle of Division I hoops, their adjusted offensive efficiency is 57th nationally. The ‘Cats score 1.097 points each time down the floor, thanks in large part to the fact that their big men reclaim the misses. Kansas State’s 41.7% offensive rebounding percentage is fifth-best in the country.

Tonight’s game is bound to be a physical one, which is terrible news for fans of both teams. Kansas State and Texas are almost equally horrible when they get to the free throw line, with the Wildcats hitting 64.3% of their attempts and the Longhorns sinking 64.2% of theirs. While that means that interior fouling won’t hurt Texas as often on the scoreboard, their lack of frontcourt depth is something to be concerned with.

Meet the Wildcats

It has been a long and tortuous road for Coach Martin and the Wildcats this year. In the off-season, they lost big man Dominique Sutton when he transferred to UNC Central to be closer to his children. Then, after a troubling non-conference run in which Coach Martin openly questioned his team’s leadership, the Wildcats also lost Freddy Asprilla and Wally Judge to mid-season transfers.

With Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both earning suspensions for taking discounts at a clothing store, and Pullen later declaring he wouldn’t play if the team was in the NIT, it has been a disjointed season to say the least.

Despite all of that, a huge home upset of Kansas two weeks ago seems to have righted the Wildcat ship. K-State has reeled off four straight wins, and if not for a loss by mere milliseconds in Boulder, the Wildcats would be riding a seven-game streak heading into tonight’s game.

As any college basketball fan knows, Jacob Pullen is the big man on campus in Manhattan. A preseason All-American, his career-high 38 points against Kansas fueled the Valentine’s Day upset. Since then, he’s averaged 26 points in wins over Oklahoma, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Pullen is a frightening match-up for any team because he can score in a variety of ways. He has an incredibly quick release on the catch-and-shoot, so the Wildcats are constantly running screens off the ball to free him up for the jumper. When Pullen gets open behind the arc, you can practically put the points on the scoreboard. In his last four games, the senior is shooting a blazing 65.2% behind the arc.

Unfortunately, the Longhorns can’t simply play him as a catch-and-shoot threat. With the ball in his hands, Pullen’s hesitation moves and powerful first step make him a constant threat to get to the rack. Even though he’s a smaller guard, he has the strength and athleticism to finish over and around bigger players, and easily scores through contact.

Kansas State’s other senior leader is big man Curtis Kelly, who came to Manhattan after a brief stint at Connecticut. He is a force inside, where he constantly comes down with offensive boards and sinks bunnies. Kelly is also a threat to score off the midrange jumper, though, and that ability allows him to pull opposing forwards out of the paint and open up driving lanes for Pullen and the other guards.

The main knock on Kelly’s game, though, is his raw emotion. He easily lets foul calls get in his head, and it can affect the other aspects of his game. If Kelly is clicking, he’s a tough player to stop. But frustrate him with the whistle or some solid post defense, and his performance typically goes downhill.

Joining Kelly in the frontcourt is Jamar Samuels, who was the Big 12′s Sixth Man of the Year last season. He’s a skilled offensive forward, who has the ability to face up post defenders and blow by them on the dribble. Samuels also can score with his back to the basket, as he often backs his man right down the lane for an easy two. On the glass, Samuels is one of the team’s best rebounders, claiming more than five boards a night.

The biggest surprise for the Wildcats this season has been the emergence of Rodney McGruder. An athletic swingman, the 6’4″ sophomore contributes all over the floor. He has a great three-point shot — it was his three-pointer that was just fractions of a second late in Boulder — but he can also body up bigger players inside. He leads the team with more than six rebounds per game, and is the team’s second-leading scorer with more than 11 points.

McGruder is a valuable hybrid player because while he contributes inside, he also has the handles and speed to attack from the wings or get out in transition. If Texas is able to limit the damage from Pullen tonight, it will be up to McGruder to pick up the slack for the Wildcats.

In the backcourt, the Wildcats have had another pleasant surprise from freshman Will Spradling. The son of a coach, he is a heady player who is averaging more than six points a game thanks in large part to his ability to read defenses and make smart cuts without the ball. Spradling also has a nice three-point shot, but his slow release makes it easier for defenses to close out on him behind the arc. Despite that, Spradling has still made 36% of his threes this season.

Another smart Wildcat is Shane Southwell, a sound defender who is practically a coach on the court. He can often be seen shouting out instructions to his teammates on the defensive end, or even physically pushing them in the right direction when things are breaking down. Offensively, he’s a non-threat, but is useful in setting screens to free Pullen or the cutting bigs. While he won’t fill up a stat sheet, Southwell’s high basketball IQ has earned him 12 starts in conference play.

Although the Wildcats have lost some players over the last few months, they still have a quality bench. In addition to Spradling, Coach Martin also employs a pair of quick guards in Martavious Irving and Nick Russell. Both can easily beat defenders off the dribble and have a knack for finding their way to the rim when the offense is stalling out. While the two guards each play less than 15 minutes a night in Big 12 games, they will likely chip in a few layups tonight.

Also coming off the bench is seven-footer Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, who has made massive strides in his sophomore year. As a freshman, he often looked stiff and awkward with the ball, but now is providing a few points and rebounds off the bench every night. At 7’0″, the one thing that has always come naturally to Henriquez-Roberts is post defense, and as a result he has a team-high 34 blocks despite playing less than 13 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

The biggest issue the Longhorns will face tonight is their inability to keep opponents off of the offensive glass. Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country at reclaiming their own misses, so Texas must limit second chance points in this one. In losses to Connecticut and Nebraska, the Horns allowed their opponents to snag more than 43% of their missed shots. If K-State can do the same thing tonight, it could push them to a huge road upset.

If the Longhorns want to get back on the right track, Jordan Hamilton must bounce back. In his last four games, Hamilton shot just 31% from the field, and was 8-of-24 behind the arc in losses to Nebraska and Colorado. If Hamilton can resist the urge to get into a game of one-upmanship with Pullen and instead take smart shots within the offense, his points will come naturally. If not, it’s very possible that the sophomore star could cripple the Texas offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns must communicate on defense. Kansas State will constantly set screens, oftentimes multiple ones just seconds apart, all in an effort to free up Pullen for the open looks. The Longhorns have to be on the same page when it comes to handling these screens, and they must also be alert to offer help defense when the K-State guards penetrate off the dribble.

Texas’ defense looked like a sieve on Saturday afternoon, and the Wildcats will have a field day if there is a repeat performance tonight. The Longhorns must get back to the sound team defense that carried them through the first five weeks of conference play.

Texas slid to sixth in both polls this afternoon following back-to-back losses on the road. The Kentucky Wildcats ascended to the top spot as the nation’s lone undefeated team, while Kansas moved up to second in both rankings.

The K-State Wildcats took a slight dip after a home loss to Oklahoma State, even though they were the first team to knock off Texas with a Big Monday victory earlier in the week. KSU is 11th in the media poll and is ranked 13th by coaches. Baylor is the only other Big 12 representative, checking in at 24th in the Associated Press rankings, although Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all received votes in both polls.

The Longhorns also took a dive in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, sliding to the 2-seed line in the Salt Lake City regional. In Lunardi’s mock bracket, Texas is paired with 1-seed Syracuse, an absolute nightmare match-up for a Longhorn team that is paralyzed by zone defenses.

The Jayhawks maintained their hold on a 1-seed, but were moved to the Houston regional that the Longhorns vacated. Lunardi awarded five other bids to the Big 12, putting K-State (3-seed), Baylor (5), Missouri (8), A&M (9), and Oklahoma State (11) in the mix.

The Longhorns survived a scare and an atrocious shooting night on Saturday, as they escaped the Frank Erwin Center with their perfect mark intact after an overtime victory against Texas A&M. Tonight, however, they face a much bigger test from the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that could even crack the top ten of the polls later this afternoon. If the Longhorns have an offensive performance like they did on Saturday night, there’s a very good chance that Fred Bramlage Coliseum will be the site of their first loss.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are a very scary match-up for the Longhorns, and it’s not just because K-State seems to win against Texas in every sport. Kansas State has the 12th-most efficient offense in the nation, and their defense is nearly as good, checking in at 31st in the country. Combining those efficiency numbers gives the ‘Cats a +0.265 differential per possession, and as a result, they push the tempo to exploit that advantage as often as they can.

Last year’s K-State team finished tops in the nation when it came to offensive rebounding, and this year’s squad is leading the way again. The Wildcats grab an insane 43.5% of their chances on the offensive glass, so even when their highly-efficient offense manages to miss a shot, they typically get another chance to score.

If you look at KSU Coach Frank Martin, you could probably guess that his teams play a physical brand of basketball, most likely because he looks like he could have a bit role on The Sopranos as one of Tony’s enforcers. If you made that guess, you’d be quite the smart cookie, as K-State games typically turn into foul-fests where both teams take approximately 3,912 free throws and the game lasts four hours. The Wildcats are the best team in the country when it comes to getting to the line, and one of the absolute worst when it comes to sending their opponents there.

“Oh no!” Longhorn Fan exclaimed to himself after reading the last paragraph. “My team couldn’t make free throws on a Little Tykes basket!” Calm those fears, though, Longhorn Fan. While Texas shoots just 63.4% from the line, the Wildcats aren’t much better, making 66.2% of their attempts. Missed free throws could certainly play a factor in the final outcome, but it might not be quite the disadvantage Texas fans would expect.

One other thing Kansas State excels at is blocking shots. When the ‘Cats aren’t fouling opponents in the paint, they are typically swatting shots into the twelfth row. K-State opponents are stuffed on 13.5% of their possessions, a rate that makes the Wildcats the 30th-best shot blocking crew in the nation. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have a 14.2% mark and are ranked 21st. There is a good possibility that some poor, unsuspecting KSU student could have his fake beard knocked right off tonight by a high-speed rejection.

Meet the ‘Cats

While this section is called “Meet the ‘Cats,” Texas fans need no introduction to Denis Clemente. The lightning-quick guard from Puerto Rico tied the Big 12′s scoring mark with 44 points in Austin last year, shooting his way onto the national scene while simultaneously ruining my 100th-consecutive game. Thanks, buddy.

Clemente can score from anywhere on the floor, although it’s his soft touch on the running floater that often gives opponents their biggest headaches. He can blow past just about any defender off the dribble, and has a tremendous ability to finish in traffic. Fortunately for Texas fans, Clemente has struggled a little bit this season in comparison to last year, as his shooting percentage has dropped to just 38% and his three-point percentage has fallen under the 30% mark.

The superstar this season for Kansas State, though, is junior guard Jacob Pullen, the man being honored by the aforementioned “Beard Out.” Pullen is leading the team with almost 20 points a game and is knocking down over 44% of his long-range bombs. While last season he was an absolute turnover machine, he’s improved his ballhandling a bit and this year actually has a turnover-to-assist ratio that isn’t approaching negative infinity. Like Clemente, Pullen is very quick with the basketball, and the Texas guards will have to work very hard at keeping him in front of them.

After sitting out a season following his transfer from UConn, big man Curtis Kelly has been a huge addition to the roster. Last year’s Wildcat team lacked any sort of identity inside, and this 6’8″ forward has certainly brought that to the table. He’s leading the team with more than six rebounds a game, and is a great defender down low, having already logged 29 blocks.

At small forward, Dominique Sutton is having a solid junior season. He’s chipping in eight points and six boards in 23 minutes per game, and has started in every contest. He spent the summer playing overseas with Pullen on an all-star team, and the extra months of game action are clearly paying off. Sutton looks faster and more sound on defense, while his ballhandling has also improved. His assist-to-TO ratio has nearly doubled in just one season.

The center position for Coach Martin is played mostly by committee, but that depth allows him to employ the physical style that makes the Wildcats so intimidating down low. Their biggest presence is freshman Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, a 7-footer who needs to add some muscle, but still provides twelve minutes a game. He’s the team’s second-best shot blocker with 16 swats, but Ken Pomeroy’s stats point out that when playing time is considered, Henriquez is best on the team in that category. The big man still needs a ton of seasoning when he’s got the ball, but he is definitely going to make an impact on the defensive end tonight.

Just 6’7″, Jamar Samuels is a sixth man that is versatile enough to fill in at the five when K-State wants to go smaller, but is most at home giving valuable bench minutes as a forward. He’s third on the team in scoring despite only starting in one game, and his 4.6 rebounds are best among non-starters. While Samuels often tries to attack off the dribble from the wings, he handles the ball about as well as Damion James circa 2006, and as a result, he is one of the team’s biggest offenders when it comes to turnovers.

Inside, 6’10″ senior Luis Colon is another option at the five who is a defensive specialist. At 265 pounds, he’s a physical player that loves to block shots and make life miserable for opposing big men. He also likes punching people, although Ty at Bring On the Cats accurately points out that Colon seems to have funneled that aggression into productive basketball play in recent years. When Big Lu and Big Pitt tangle down low tonight, seismologists may note a spike of activity near the Little Apple.

Freshman Wally Judge was a much heralded recruit coming into the season, and with McDonald’s All-American honors, why wouldn’t he be? But so far his play has left a lot to be desired, as the freshman is picking up fouls more often than points. He’s averaging just 12.5 minutes per game, but still manages to lead the team in personals by a wide margin. His 52 fouls are six more than Samuels has, and he’s done it in eleven less minutes per game.

Freshman guard Rodney McGruder plays about as often as Judge, and provides a scoring spark from outside when he comes off the bench. McGruder loves to light it up from the corner, and his 54.5% success rate from long range would be absolutely terrifying if he had taken more than 22 attempts on the year. In future seasons, McGruder is going to be a pest for opponents, but for now he is a quality role player that compliments Martin’s roster nicely.

Chris Merriewether is the tenth Wildcat who plays more than ten minutes per game, and he’s mostly a glue guy off the bench. He can’t shoot that well, and as a result has only thirteen attempts on the year. Martin puts Merriewether in the game simply for his hustle, defense, and hard work, not for his massive 1.2 points per game.

Keys to the game

The biggest flaw for the Wildcats is still their inability to control the basketball. They are turning it over on 22.1% of their possessions, which is even worse than last year’s team. And when you consider that last year Kansas State turned it over 25 times in a 22-point road loss to Nebraska, that’s really saying something. If Texas hopes to slow down the highly-efficient K-State offense, they are going to have to force a ton of Wildcat mistakes.

As previously mentioned, KSU is practically unstoppable on the offensive glass. In addition to forcing turnovers, the other way Texas can limit the damage is to limit K-State’s second-chance points. The Longhorns must keep the ‘Cats off the offensive boards, and when they do give up second and third looks, they cannot result in easy putback buckets.

Finally, Texas must not settle. When the Longhorns have struggled to score inside this season, their possessions often ended simply with outside and mid-range jumpers. Some nights, those shots were falling, and the Longhorns were able to cruise. On other nights, Texas couldn’t hit the broad side of Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, and they struggled to put away teams like Rice and A&M-Corpus Christi.

The Wildcats are a solid defensive team, and scoring inside will not be easy tonight. Texas must make a commitment to penetrate, flash men to the free throw line, use good ball movement, and most importantly cannot rely simply on contested jumpers where Dexter Pittman is the only player in rebounding position.

The big finish

The Big 12 is a very deep conference this season, and road wins are going to be hard to come by. None will be harder for the Longhorns this year than the one they hope to steal tonight. With the exception of the Kansas game in Austin three weeks from now, this game is the toughest one left on the docket, and there is a very good chance the Longhorns will suffer their first loss of the season in about eleven hours. No matter the outcome, however, this ought to be one hell of a basketball game.

Vegas thinks the game is roughly a toss up, giving the Wildcats a 1.5-point edge thanks to the home-court advantage. They have yet to post the odds of my making it out of Bramlage Coliseum alive, however. Just to be safe, a stop at a costume shop somewhere on I-35 might be in order. Do you think they sell fake beards in child sizes?

If you told most people that a team would post a minus-11 turnover differential, give up 20 offensive rebounds, and still win the game, you’d likely get laughed at. But somehow that is exactly what the Texas Longhorns found a way to do in an ugly, gutsy win over the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals.

It’s often said at this time of the season that any win is a good win. That’s very true, although if Texas fans expect their team to play their way past the 7- or 8-seed line, a convincing win would have certainly helped things. Texas is 6-6 against teams currently in the RPI Top 50, and would have to get past Baylor — ranked 59th in this morning’s RPI approximations — to earn a shot at another Top 20 team in Oklahoma State or Missouri. A narrow win over a bubble team like K-State just three days before Selection Sunday could be something that sits in the back of the committee’s mind when they are making their final adjustments to the S-curve.

Of course, the most important aspect of this game was the fact that Texas managed to pull out the win when playing well below their capabilities. Those 20 offensive rebounds for the Wildcats were equal to 37% of the chances that KSU had on the offensive glass. While that might not sound like a large number, it gains importance once you realize that Pitt leads the nation in that statistical category by grabbing 42% of their chances per game. The fact that the Longhorns gave the Wildcats that many extra possessions and still won is a clear indicator of the high level of defense the team was playing yesterday.

Statistically, that defense was stifling. They allowed the Wildcats an effective field goal percentage — a measure of shooting percentage that gives added weight to the three-pointer — of only 33.9% That was the fourth-best outing from the Texas D all season, with the only better games coming against sub-par opponents Appalachian State, Stetson, and St. Joseph’s. If Texas can play that kind of defense the rest of the season, they won’t need to score many points in order to advance.

The leader for Texas once again was big man Dexter Pittman, who powered his way to 19 points and 20 rebounds. Although a bunch of Dex’s boards came off of his own misses of point blank shots, having him be a human vacuum underneath the goal ensures that Texas will get lots of second- and third-chance opportunities. He played a surprising 34 minutes in this game, which came just 24 hours after he played 28 minutes against Colorado. For a large man who averaged less than 15 minutes a game the rest of the season, this weekend will be a true test of how far he has progressed with his endurance.

The bench play for the Longhorns was also incredibly encouraging. With point guard Dogus Balbay struggling for a second straight game, Coach Rick Barnes looked to Varez Ward for some quality minutes in the backcourt. Instead of just hanging on to the ball, Ward attacked the basket for three buckets, and was a perfect 3-of-3 from the line. For a Texas team that has been searching for an answer to its backcourt woes all season long, this sudden flash of brilliance from Ward is a reassuring thing heading into the Big Dance.

Clint Chapman also gave some solid minutes from the bench, hustling for some early buckets on tip ins and awkward moves near the rim. While he was only on the floor for eight minutes, he managed nine points and sunk three free throws on only five attempts. That last stat is notable only because Chapman has been absolutely abysmal all season long at the charity stripe, having made just three other free throws all season for a pitiful 15.7% success rate at the line. I still wouldn’t want to see him at the line in crunch time (or really any time), but it’s nice to see him getting some kind treatment from the iron for once.

The win sets up a semifinal with the Baylor Bears, a team that is suddenly playing inspired basketball and would want nothing more than to end their seemingly interminable string of futility against the Longhorns. A game preview for that one will be headed your way within the hour.

With yesterday’s 11-point win over Colorado, the Longhorns have advanced to the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tournament, setting up a re-match with the Kansas State Wildcats. These two teams were part of a four-squad tie for fourth in the league, with K-State winning the tiebreaker by virtue of a win over the Longhorns back on January 31st.

Unlike yesterday’s game, there’s a lot riding on today’s contest. The Wildcats are sitting on the wrong side of the bubble in most projections, thanks to a weak non-conference schedule and only a pair of quality wins against the Longhorns and Missouri Tigers. Most experts are theorizing that K-State needs a pair of wins in the league tourney to feel safe on Selection Sunday, so expect the ‘Cats to be playing full tilt this afternoon.

The Longhorns, on the other hand, are playing for seeding and a likely semi-final rematch with a Kansas team that they put a scare into on Saturday. Most bracket projections think that Texas has earned a 7- or 8-seed, which sets up an undesirable second-round NCAA match-up with one of the top eight teams in the tournament. But if the Longhorns can pull off a win today and an upset tomorrow, they could possibly work their way up the S-curve. There are a lot of moving parts involved as tournaments go on around the country, so all Texas can do is win.

The first meeting

The first time these two teams met, Denis Clemente became a breakout star, tying the conference’s scoring mark with 44 points in an 85-81 overtime win at the Frank Erwin Center. The Puerto Rican guard was a perfect 12-of-12 from the line and 6-of-6 from long range. Texas also gave up another four buckets from behind the arc, allowing the Wildcats to shoot a ridiculous 67% from three-point range.

Texas showed a lot of moxie in this game, however, fighting back from a 17-point deficit with less than eight minutes left in the game. The Longhorns finally tied things back up with only nine seconds left in the game, but couldn’t get over the hump in overtime.

Since then…

Coming into that game, Kansas State was only 2-4 in Big 12 play, thanks to a very tough opening slate. They followed up the Texas win by claiming victories in six of their final nine games, including road wins against Iowa State and Texas A&M in gyms that are famous for their home-court advantage.

Clemente continued to impress throughout the rest of the season, scoring 33 in a road game against Mizzou and 26 points against the Kansas Jayhawks. Unfortunately, the guard played a little dirty in that KU game, elbowing a player in the back and later slapping another one in the head, and missed the following game as a result.

The biggest improvement during the stretch run, however, came from senior forward Darren Kent. His midrange game has blossomed, and his always-present three-point threat really stretches out opposing defenses. He’s played through a broken nose by wearing a protective mask, and has averaged nearly 10 points and six boards per game since the contest in Austin. With the added attention Clemente sees in this one, Kent could be the player to have a breakout game for Coach Frank Martin.

Keys to the game

For a longer preview of the Wildcat players and their tendencies, you’ll want to read the game preview from that earlier match-up. But for our keys to this afternoon’s re-match, just read on…

Keep pounding it inside – Texas scored 38 points in the paint against Colorado, and they’ll want to keep forcing it inside against the Wildcats. As we mentioned in that first game preview, Jamar Samuels and Luis Colon are foul magnets, and the Longhorns can earn a ton of free points by taking it at the twin towers. After those two frontcourt players, the talent level drops off significantly. If Texas can get them in foul trouble, facing off against lumbering forward Ron Anderson could make the points come even faster.

Defend the perimeter – The Wildcats scorched Texas for 10 three-pointers on only 15 attempts when they played in Austin, and that simply won’t fly if Texas hopes to winn today’s contest. The Kansas State frontcourt is not much of a scoring threat, so it’s worth the risk to play tighter outside on Clemente and Fred Brown while daring the ‘Cats to beat you down low.

Knock Clemente back to Earth – There’s simply no way that Clemente will go off for 44 points again in this one, especially if the officials decide that his forearm shoves are actually worthy of offensive foul calls. But when you consider the fact that the speedy guard dropped 44, his team had a 17-point lead, and Texas still almost stormed back for a win…well, you start to like the Longhorns’ odds if they can hold him to even just 20 points.

Tip is scheduled for 2 P.M. this afternoon, but tournament officials have been giving teams 27 minutes to warm up between contests. If the Bears and Jayhawks happen to run late in the early game, adjust your DVRs accordingly.

The Texas Longhorns return home after a hard-fought road victory against Baylor, sitting just a game out of first place in the Big 12 with a 4-1 mark. Their waiting opponents are the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that is much better than their 2-4 conference record would indicate. But lest my dear readers think I am playing Chicken Little with a KSU team that lost to Texas by nine at home last season even with Michael Beasley and Bill Walker — two players who will not be on their roster today — a quick glance at Kansas State’s strengths should support my claims.

Their strengths

The Wildcats rebound the ball well, particularly on the offensive glass. And for a Texas team that doesn’t score a ton of points and relies upon its defense to win games, there is nothing more frightening than the thought of numerous solid defensive stands being wiped away as KSU swipes an offensive board and adds a possession. The Wildcats are grabbing 42.8% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, which is good for second-best in the nation. The Longhorns, meanwhile, are already slightly below-average in allowing their opponents to grab those offensive rebounds, giving them up on 32.3% of the opportunities. If Texas cannot keep KSU off the offensive glass, this game will be much closer than it should be, and the Wildcats could even pull off their second straight win at the Frank Erwin Center.

Kansas State also shoots the ball well from outside, a fact that has kept them competitive in games against much better teams such as Oklahoma. The Wildcats are hitting 36% of their shots from long range, led by sixth man Fred Brown, who has knocked down 43% of his attempts on the year. Texas has improved their three-point defense as the year has progressed, but it should be noted that in the Longhorns’ four losses this season, opponents have hit 38% of their attempts from long range.

The glaring weakness

The one obvious problem that Kansas State has, though, is an inability to handle the basketball. Against Kansas, they turned it over eight times in the first seven minutes and fell behind 18-0 before you could say “Jim Wooldridge in a neck brace.” After hanging with Oklahoma for a half in the conference opener, KSU turned the ball over on seven straight possessions to give the game away. And in a 22-point road loss to Nebraska two weeks ago, the Wildcats coughed it up twenty-five times. Twenty-freakin-five.

Jacob Pullen is the biggest offender on the team, with 62 turnovers logged so far while only dishing out 68 assists. For a team with a lack of a true post player inside, this type of carelessness by the guards is highly problematic. Even point guard Denis Clemente has an awful assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.4-to-1. As often as the Wildcats extend possessions with their great offensive rebounding, they shoot themselves in the foot by giving those same possessions away with poor ball handling.

Keys to the game

As should be clear based on the above paragraphs, Texas has to crash the glass and harass the ball handlers for Kansas State. But they also cannot afford to let KSU push the tempo. The Wildcats run much deeper than Texas, as six players average twenty minutes of playing time, while two others see at least ten minutes a game. Kansas State definitely has the horses to push the transition game, as Denis Clemente is an incredibly fast guard who looks like a water-bug when he scurries coast-to-coast for a layup. Texas is a more talented team, but if KSU can tire the Longhorns out and force Rick Barnes to look further down the bench for fresh bodies, it plays into the hands of Wildcat coach Frank Martin.

In addition, Texas must exploit their strengths inside. While Luis Colon and Jamar Samuels block a lot of shots, they also put their opponents on the free throw line quite often. Kansas State opponents shoot an average of 24 free throws per game, which is nearly one free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts. According to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, that puts KSU at 333rd in the country out of only 344 Division I teams. Texas must pound it inside, get to the line, and force Martin to use his depth in a reactive fashion as his players pick up fouls.

We’re back in Austin after an absolutely exhausting weekend of basketball and an all-night drive home, and I’m ready to sleep for about 86.3 hours. But first let’s talk a little about the bracket.

While it was certainly disappointing to lose to Kansas in the conference tournament finals again, things worked out incredibly well. If Texas would have earned a 1-seed in Detroit by winning the game, perhaps that loss was the best possible outcome. Texas now has the route of Little Rock-Houston-San Antonio if they win their games, which is reassuringly similar to the Birmingham-San Antonio-New Orleans route that the 2003 Final Four team took.

Oddly enough, I’ve seen Austin Peay play in person this season, as Bear and I stopped in Nashville when we were traveling to the Michigan State game in December. The game was at Belmont that night, and the one memory that stands out most in my mind was how sloppy the Governors were with the ball, nearly choking away a 17 or 18-point lead to the Bruins late in the game. I’ll have to dig up my notes and media info from that one to give a more detailed Austin Peay preview later in the week.

The CBS storyline machine is already working overtime, as former Rick Barnes assistant Frank Haith could coach against his mentor if the Miami Hurricanes and Longhorns both win in the first round… Up in Omaha, it’s a match-up of super freshmen when Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo tangle. And we also can’t forget that Mayo’s former high school teammate Bill Walker is also on K-State… If Winthrop pulls the first round upset, they could face Notre Dame in the second round, which would be a rematch of the first-round game in Spokane last season where the Eagles upset the Fighting Irish.

Is Wisconsin undervalued as a 3-seed? While they only lost four games this year, their SOS of 61 really paled in comparison to most of the other 2 and 3-seeds, so moving them up a line might have been a stretch. But when you consider the road awaiting Duke in this tournament, I’m not sure any of the 3-seeds would’ve wanted to be bumped up. If they get by Belmont, the Blue Devils have to face the winner of West Virginia and Arizona, which is one hell of a second-round test for a 2-seed. And if Duke does happen to survive to the second weekend, they get to fly out to Phoenix with a potential Elite Eight game against UCLA awaiting. I guess even the anointed Blue Devils can’t get the sweetheart treatment when they go 5-4 to finish the year.

Have any other thoughts or storylines I missed in this pre-dawn post? Leave them in the comments section below as we talk hoops all week long leading up to the tourney.