3.17.08
Posted by Ryan at 5:26AM

We’re back in Austin after an absolutely exhausting weekend of basketball and an all-night drive home, and I’m ready to sleep for about 86.3 hours. But first let’s talk a little about the bracket.

While it was certainly disappointing to lose to Kansas in the conference tournament finals again, things worked out incredibly well. If Texas would have earned a 1-seed in Detroit by winning the game, perhaps that loss was the best possible outcome. Texas now has the route of Little Rock-Houston-San Antonio if they win their games, which is reassuringly similar to the Birmingham-San Antonio-New Orleans route that the 2003 Final Four team took.

Oddly enough, I’ve seen Austin Peay play in person this season, as Bear and I stopped in Nashville when we were traveling to the Michigan State game in December. The game was at Belmont that night, and the one memory that stands out most in my mind was how sloppy the Governors were with the ball, nearly choking away a 17 or 18-point lead to the Bruins late in the game. I’ll have to dig up my notes and media info from that one to give a more detailed Austin Peay preview later in the week.

The CBS storyline machine is already working overtime, as former Rick Barnes assistant Frank Haith could coach against his mentor if the Miami Hurricanes and Longhorns both win in the first round… Up in Omaha, it’s a match-up of super freshmen when Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo tangle. And we also can’t forget that Mayo’s former high school teammate Bill Walker is also on K-State… If Winthrop pulls the first round upset, they could face Notre Dame in the second round, which would be a rematch of the first-round game in Spokane last season where the Eagles upset the Fighting Irish.

Is Wisconsin undervalued as a 3-seed? While they only lost four games this year, their SOS of 61 really paled in comparison to most of the other 2 and 3-seeds, so moving them up a line might have been a stretch. But when you consider the road awaiting Duke in this tournament, I’m not sure any of the 3-seeds would’ve wanted to be bumped up. If they get by Belmont, the Blue Devils have to face the winner of West Virginia and Arizona, which is one hell of a second-round test for a 2-seed. And if Duke does happen to survive to the second weekend, they get to fly out to Phoenix with a potential Elite Eight game against UCLA awaiting. I guess even the anointed Blue Devils can’t get the sweetheart treatment when they go 5-4 to finish the year.

Have any other thoughts or storylines I missed in this pre-dawn post? Leave them in the comments section below as we talk hoops all week long leading up to the tourney.

3.10.08
Posted by Ryan at 5:17PM

Lots and lots of news for the Horns now that the regular season has come to a close. And that starts with the Big 12 conference awards, where Rick Barnes took home Coach of the Year in a season where his Longhorns set a school record for regular season victories. D.J. Augustin was a unanimous selection to the All-Big 12 First Team, while A.J. Abrams and Damion James were named to the second team. The king of hustle, Justin Mason, was named to the All-Defensive Team.

In the latest Bracketology from Joe Lunardi, the Horns are still a 2-seed playing in the Phoenix regional with UCLA as the 1-seed. God forbid this projection actually holds, as good ol’ Joe has a potential second-round match-up for Texas with Arkansas…in Little Rock. Hardcore amateur bracketologists will be happy to know that Joe is now going daily with his picks from until Selection Sunday.

Andy Glockner’s Bubble Watch — now also a daily feature — has the Big 12 with three “locks” in Texas, Kansas, and OU. He feels that Baylor and K-State are solidly in, and barring a Bear implosion against Colorado on Thursday, I would have to agree. That leaves A&M in the “work left to do” category, which could be something of a misnomer. As long as the bubble doesn’t contract further with cinderella auto-bids, the Aggies should be fine. But while they don’t actually need another win, they certainly can’t afford to somehow lose to Iowa State.

While everybody is focused on seeds and bubbles, there is still that weekly tradition of the polls, which saw Texas climb to 6th in the AP and 8th in the ESPN/USA Today.

Although there’s no Big Monday, there’s more tournament action from Championship Week tonight. Auto-bids will be handed out in the Southern Conference (8 PM CST, ESPN2), where bubble team fans will be pulling hard for Davidson. At the same time, those nervous folks will be hoping that Gonzaga can stave off San Diego in the WCC Championship (8 PM CST, ESPN). And just underway in Albany, Rider and Siena are battling for the MAAC title on ESPN2.

3.03.08
Posted by Ryan at 3:52PM

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.

2.25.08
Posted by Ryan at 5:43PM

#5 Texas Longhorns (23-4 overall, 10-2 Big 12) at Kansas State Wildcats (18-8, 8-4)
Tip: 8 PM | TV: ESPN (HD)

The Longhorns come into Manhattan, Kansas tonight riding their first-ever seven-game conference winning streak and looking for their first undefeated February since the 1960’s. Standing in their way are the Kansas State Wildcats, a very scary team with a potential National Player of the Year. They have not lost a home game in conference play, and only dropped an overtime game against Oregon in their non-conference home slate.

By the numbers

The Wildcats have a fairly efficient offense that can really push the tempo. According to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, K-State is the 18th-fastest team in the country and the 17th-most efficient. Their best statistical measure, though, comes on the offensive glass, where they are the top rated team in the nation. Texas has occasionally struggled with keeping big teams from getting second chances in the half-court, so they’ll have to keep K-State off the glass in this one.

The 1-2 punch

Michael Beasley wants an iPod
(Photo credit: Rod Aydelotte/Associated Press)

By now, everyone has heard of Michael Beasley, the man who could be the second-consecutive freshman to win National Player of the Year. Against Baylor on Saturday, he scored a league-record 44 points against the Bears in a losing effort. He’s an incredibly tough player to defend because he can score in the post, knock down mid-range jumpers, and sink the three-pointer with ease. Even when the D is tight on B-Easy, he often can launch lightning-quick pull-back Js with little space. The Longhorns are going to have their hands full with Beasley, but perhaps could learn from the box-and-one look that the Huskers threw at him on Wednesday night, in a game where they held him to a mere mortal line of 17 points and 10 boards.

Bill Walker is the next-best player on Kansas State, but he’s more than used to being second fiddle despite his great talent. In high school, he was the second-in-command to O.J. Mayo and is more than happy chipping in double-digit points with the defenses keyed on his high-powered teammates. The world-famous Towel Pisser is averaging 17 points and 7 boards per game, and his play has reached a new level in Big 12 games. Although he claims he can’t jump quite as high as he did prior to last year’s ACL injury, he still has a sweet three-point stroke and can quickly drive and dunk on defenders who over-pursue on the perimeter.

What to look for

1) Can Texas hang with the ‘Cats on the glass? They’ve looked really good in the rebounding department the last few weeks, but K-State is as solid as they get. Texas cannot afford to give up extra possessions to Martin’s bunch, and they also cannot afford to settle for perimeter shots of their own without crashing the boards.

2) How will Texas respond to the crowd? The Longhorns need to come out firing on all cylinders and cannot afford to get behind early. Reports from our KSU friends say that the student line is a bit soft this week, which is to be expected following the disappointing road losses to Nebraska and Baylor. But the fact of the matter is that Bramlage Coliseum is one of the most underrated home court advantages in the country, and it will still be rocking tonight. Texas cannot afford to let the crowd fuel the team like the Missouri fans did back in January.

3) What will the role players do? Beast-ley and Walker will both get their points, but it’s a question of how the rest of the ‘Cats do tonight. The Longhorns are a high-scoring team that can handle a 30+ game from Beasley, but if Clent Stewart, Jacob Pullen, and Blake Young play over their heads offensively, Texas could have problems. Rick Barnes’ team obviously must work hard to defend Beasley, but they can’t devote so much attention to him that the rest of the ‘Cats win the game.

This game is going to be the biggest test left for Texas, and was a game that I had penciled in as a loss earlier in the season. The recent play of the Longhorns has made it look much more winnable, but it is still going to be 40 minutes of hell. Vegas has the Wildcats as 3.5 point favorites, while Ken Pomeroy is predicting a 4-point K-State win. If by chance Texas can pull this one out, it is only more fodder for those pushing the Longhorns as a 1-seed in the Big Dance.

Action tips at 8 P.M., so if the Big East decides to finish their game on time, you can catch the action on ESPN.

2.21.08
Posted by Ryan at 2:23PM

It’s almost Friday, which means it’s one last chance to catch some good hoops before the weekend, and it’s also time to check out the newest power rankings. Luke Winn moves the Horns up 3 spots to 7th, and brings up what Texas fans have been saying for weeks — D.J.’s tired legs are a problem. You could definitely see it in the final minutes of the Baylor game, and it was pretty noticeable as he struggled versus ISU and Kansas, as well. Not that we’re complaining about Augustin here at LRT, but let’s get the kid some rest down the stretch.

ESPN analysts put Texas one slot higher, just ahead of Duke after their loss last night. Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb were the high-water marks, with the Longhorns 5th in each ballot, while Dick Vitale continues to use illicit substances and vote Texas 12th. This level of stupidity is what makes us love the subdomain name for the folks at Super, Scintillating, and Sarcastic.

Heather Dinich of ESPN.com has a really great article on the Tony Durant, Kevin’s older brother. Dinich provides an interesting look at the winding path the man took to reach D-1 basketball, and I must say it’s refreshing to see a guy continue to work hard when he could just as easily become a leeching member of his brother’s entourage.

I know that TB and the folks over at Bring on the Cats are still steaming over the loss to Nebraska last night, but the hilarious videos they found of Michael Beasley could make any Cat fan laugh through the pain. Check out these three short clips of Beasley’s confusion, infatuation, and obsession with a reporter’s iPod.

2.20.08
Posted by Ryan at 11:45AM

While Kansas, K-State, and Texas are fighting it out atop the conference standings, there’s another interesting battle brewing for that fourth and final first-round bye in the post-season tournament. While Baylor’s early play made it seem they could be the frontrunners for the 4-seed, losses in six of their last seven games have made the picture a little more murky for Scott Drew’s bunch.

Now, a look ahead at the next games for the top teams in the league…

Kansas Jayhawks, 9-2
This week: at Oklahoma State (Sat)
The Jayhawks get a long week to rest and a cupcake of an opponent to feast on this weekend. Only one team from the Big 12 South has ever won in Allen Fieldhouse, and I wouldn’t put money on Sean Sutton to win a second-consecutive road game. Kansas essentially gets a full-speed practice in preparation for a battle the following weekend with K-State.

Texas Longhorns, 9-2
This week: vs. Oklahoma (Sat)
Texas took care of business against the Sooners in Norman and are playing some incredibly impressive basketball at the moment. Without Longar Longar, OU could find itself in some trouble come Saturday afternoon.

Kansas State Wildcats, 9-2
This week: at Nebraska (Wed), at Baylor (Sat)
The roadie with Baylor this weekend could be a trap game, with the Wildcats potentially looking ahead to its next two with Texas and Kansas. Add to that the fact that the Bears desperately need some résumé-building upsets to offset their recent slide, and the Ferrell Center could be a very dangerous place for Beasley’s Bunch.

Texas A&M Aggies, 6-5
This week: vs. Nebraska (Sat)
After dropping two straight games, the Aggies have a chance to get well against Big Red at home. The tussle with the Cornhuskers is the most winnable contest that A&M has left, so they’ve got to get things clicking early in front of the Reed fans, who are becoming restless as of late.

Oklahoma Sooners, 6-5
This week: at Texas (Sat)
The last two Sooner wins came on insane three-pointers (and a foul), but they’ll have to work extremely hard to keep the momentum going in Austin on Saturday. As mentioned earlier, the loss of Longar to a stress fracture makes an already-thin Sooner frontcourt look like Kate Moss, so they can’t afford foul trouble on the road.

Baylor Bears, 5-6
This week: vs. Kansas State (Sat)
If Baylor is going to stop the bleeding, they’ve got to do it against the ‘Cats. A loss drops them even further out of contention for the first-round bye, and is one of only two remaining chances for a marquee win. (The other comes against A&M in the last week of the season.) If Baylor loses this one, fans might want to start printing up those green-and-gold NIT shirts.

2.13.08
Posted by Ryan at 10:22PM

A lot of losses for the top teams in the country last week, giving blogpollers the unenviable task of deciding which defeats were most damaging. What is the value of a road loss when compared to a home loss against another ranked opponent? Do you favor the overall profile when you vote, or do you give more weight to recent results? The balloting process was certainly much more interesting at the top this time around, with the different voting philosophies evident in the individual rankings. Here’s this week’s poll with my comments, and as always you can review everyone’s ballot here.

As a reminder, all ballots were cast following Monday night’s action, meaning that Purdue’s win over Michigan State did not factor into the rankings.

This week’s blogpoll consisted of votes from March to Madness, March Madness All Season, Rush the Court, A Sea of Blue, Tar Heel Mania, Storming the Floor, Vegas Watch, Super, Scintillating, and Sarcastic, George Mason Basketball, College Hoops Journal, Gopher Nation, Bryce’s Brackets and Observations, Making the Dance, Bizzaro Joe Lunardi, and yours truly. Six bloggers absented from this week’s vote.

There weren’t many outliers on my ballot this week, with the biggest variance between my rankings and the consensus coming with Washington State, K-State, and Purdue. In retrospect, I have the Cougs too high as a result of trying not to penalize them for “good” losses. But in reality, their résumé is rather lacking in the quality win department, so they’ve really got to prove things down the stretch against Zona and the Cardinal.

And while K-State has solid wins over A&M and Kansas on their home floor, the overall body of work is a bit sketchy. The main problem, though, is that this description could fit a ton of teams between 15 and 35. Of course, the Wildcats are in the middle of laying a huge egg in Lubbock as I write this, so it looks like their up-and-down year may continue.

Purdue also has some really questionable losses early in the year, but their win over Sparty last night will certainly propel them up the ranks in next week’s vote. While the talk has been about MSU, ‘Scon, and Indiana all year, the Big 10 could very easily be won by the Boilermakers. It ought to be quite the interesting stretch run.

1.21.08
Posted by Ryan at 9:20AM

It’s a new week, which means new polls debut this afternoon. And after the rash of upsets this past week, there is sure to be a ton of movement through the rankings. Twelve of the ESPN/USA Today Top 25 lost, including the unlucky folks at Texas A&M, Marquette, and Miami who all lost both of their games this week. A lot of the carnage happened just in front of the Longhorns, who will probably move up six slots to #13 this week. Of course, if voters decide to punish Vandy for their loss (despite the fact it came to the hottest one-loss team in the country) that could edge the Horns up even as far as 12th in this week’s ranking.

Bad news this weekend for K-State senior David Hoskins. The AP reports that his injury will now force him to miss the whole season, although he might apply for another year of eligibility according to Coach Frank Martin. I hope that Hoskins goes forward with the medical redshirt and gets his fifth year, but I also hope that Michael Beast-ly and Bill Walker are long gone by then, because I’m tired of losing to the ‘Cats at home.

I never linked up Luke Winn’s newest power rankings on Friday morning, so take a gander. Texas slipped out of the Top 16, although I have a feeling they’ll be crawling their way back in on Thursday. Butler finally cracked the Top 10, although they lost to Cleveland State the night that this was published. Oops.

My own blogpoll vote is due tonight, and the crazy weekend has certainly muddied the picture. I’m sticking with Kansas at #1 with Memphis a close second, and at the moment I like the red-hot Volunteers in third followed by Carolina, Duke, and UCLA. I’ve got fourteen hours in a car today to think about it all, and of course the Big Monday contests could make things even more confusing if Georgetown or Texas goes down. I’ll be posting my full ballot tomorrow and will try to justify any head-scratching selections, so be sure to come back and rip me to shreds if I Prothro the vote.