Saturday was the day the streaks died. The Longhorns came into Lincoln, Nebraska boasting a perfect 11-0 mark in the Big 12, a streak of 264 minutes without trailing, and a seven-game winning streak on the road. The Cornhuskers wiped away all of that with an incredible second-half performance, neutralizing the vaunted Texas defense en route to a 70-67 win.

For the Cornhuskers, the win was the marquee victory they have needed to pad their NCAA tournament résumé. At 18-8 overall, they now have wins over Texas and Texas A&M, plus upcoming opportunities to knock off Kansas State and Missouri at home. While Nebraska was on the fringes of the bubble discussion before Saturday, now they find themselves squarely in the middle of a very soft bubble. The Cornhuskers have not made the NCAA field since 1998, and have not won a game in their six tournament appearances.

For Texas, the loss was simply a speedbump. Quality teams often lose on the road in college basketball. In fact, the Longhorns’ loss was the third road loss this week by a team ranked in the top five of both major polls. While Texas certainly has big tests ahead in Kansas State and road trips to Colorado and Baylor, if they can recover and once again play up to their potential, they should be just fine.

What looked good

Perhaps the only thing that looked good for the Longhorns yesterday were the first and last few minutes of the game. Texas built an eight-point lead over the first twelve minutes of the game, powered by 47% shooting from the field, including 57% behind the arc. After that, Texas would shoot only 33% from three-point range, and 31.5% from the field.

In the final minutes, Texas refused to quit. Down 11 points with just 2:35 left, the Longhorns took advantage of missed free throws by Nebraska and a terrible job by the towel boys to tie the game just 1:25 later. Jordan Hamilton made three free throws after being fouled on an attempt in the corner, then added a three from the wing after Jorge Brian Diaz missed a pair of free throws for the Huskers.

Following a made free throw by Houston product Toney McCray, Texas then scored six straight points to force the tie. During that run, a Nebraska player slipped on the inbounds pass, allowing Alexis Wangmene to grab the ball and make two free throws after he was fouled inside. That was the end of the Longhorn rally, though, as Brandon Richardson made a pair of free throws just 28 seconds later to put Nebraska up for good.

In all honesty, the Longhorns had no business being in the game at that point. They were flat-out whipped during the second half, but showed tenacity in refusing to give up. Texas even had a shot to go ahead with 33 seconds left, and another attempt to tie it at the buzzer. While there was very little to take away from Saturday’s game, fans can at least rest assured that Texas is far more resilient than a year ago, when the team crumbled in the face of any adversity.

What needed work

The most glaring deficiencies for Texas on Saturday afternoon came on the defensive side of the ball. The Longhorn bigs were absolutely abused inside by Diaz and Andre Almeida, who combined to score 21 points. A big part of this was the early foul trouble for Gary Johnson, which forced Matt Hill and Wangmene to play a combined 16 minutes even though they couldn’t contain the Nebraska frontcourt.

With Diaz and Almeida playing so well inside, the Cornhuskers isolated the Texas bigs on the blocks and let their guards go to work. Eight of Nebraska’s 15 second-half baskets came in the form of layups or dunks, as Richardson and Lance Jeter were able to drive to the rack with hardly any resistance, while Diaz and Almeida provided seals on the Longhorn forwards.

All told, the defensive performance by Texas was the worst against Nebraska all season. The only teams who posted poorer defensive efficiency numbers against the Cornhuskers this year were North Dakota, Jackson State, and Arkansas Pine Bluff. To say that the Longhorns are more talented than those three teams would be a gross understatement. The Texas defense that pundits have been raving about for the last two months was nowhere to be found on Saturday.

Another big reason for Nebraska’s success on the offensive end was the fact that Texas could not grab a rebound when it mattered. The Cornhuskers grabbed a whopping 43.3% of their misses in this game, a stat made even more shocking when you consider that they were reclaiming just 28% of their misses in conference play coming into the game.

Connecticut beat Texas on the strength of their offensive rebounding, and Nebraska did the same thing on Saturday. Add in the fact that Texas nearly lost to North Carolina thanks to offensive putbacks, and it’s easy to see what the plan of attack will be for teams playing the Longhorns in the future.

Offensively, the performance by the Texas players was nothing to write home about. Hamilton had a terrible shooting day, making just 3-of-16 from the field. You can give him some credit for making it to the line 11 times to earn points, but it also has to be noted that he only attempted six free throws in the first 38 minutes of the game.

Hamilton put up 11 three-pointers on the afternoon and missed all five of his two-point attempts. Many of those misses were good looks that just weren’t falling, but he needs to recognize when it’s just not his day and then make the effort to attack off the dribble and manufacture points.

In addition, this game underscored early-season concerns about the frontcourt depth. While Hill and Wangmene will never be confused with Johnson, the fact that they had to play extended minutes also hurt the Texas defense in an unexpected way.

The Cornhuskers were packing the lane defensively, a tactic made even more effective because Hill and Wangmene are generally non-threats on the offensive end. The Longhorns simply could not afford to also have Balbay on the floor, because it would leave them with only three scorers. Without Dogus limited to just 15 minutes, the Nebraska guards found it even easier to drive the lane with impunity. In a domino effect, losing a post player to foul trouble actually weakened the perimeter defense.

Next up: vs. Iowa State (14-13 overall, 1-11 Big 12); Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT

At 11-0 in the Big 12 and a full two games ahead of the Kansas Jayhawks in the league standings, the Texas Longhorns now have their eyes on bigger prizes ahead. The Longhorns are still firmly in the discussion for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and are jockeying for preferential placement in the nearby San Antonio regional.

To reach those goals, Texas has to win the games it is supposed to win on paper. They will likely be favored in each of their last five regular season games, but the three remaining road tests certainly provide the biggest danger of tripping up the streaking Longhorns. This afternoon, Texas will tackle the first of those road challenges as they face a Nebraska team that is looking desperately for marquee wins to pad their tournament résumé.

For the fans, there’s also an element of intrigue with Nebraska’s impending move to the Big 10. There was a fair share of political stumping going on during the off-season realignment, with the Huskers receiving a large chunk of the blame for fracturing the conference. Nebraska Athletic Director Tom Osbourne scoffed at the notion, instead pointing his finger at the six teams, including Texas, who were considering a retaliatory move to the Pac 10. It’s fairly safe to say there is no love lost between the two schools.

By the numbers

Since arriving from UTEP, Doc Sadler has coached his Cornhuskers into a defensive machine. In terms of defensive efficiency, Nebraska’s 0.892 points allowed per possession is 14th in the nation. In conference play, that number has ballooned to 1.013 points every time down the floor, but the Huskers are still 2nd in the Big 12. The only team ahead of them, of course, is Texas and its nearly impenetrable defense.

Offensively, it’s a completely different story for Nebraska. They rank near the bottom of the conference in three of the four offensive factors, and are even near the bottom nationally in offensive rebounding and free-throw rate. Against Big 12 competition, the Cornhusker offense turns the ball over 20.2% of the time, grabs rebounds on just 28% of their missed shots, and posts a free-throw rate of only 34.7%.

The low offensive rebounding numbers are very interesting, because the Cornhusker defense does a great job cleaning the glass and limiting opponents to one-shot possessions. They are holding opponents to a 26.3% offensive-rebounding mark on the season, a number that is actually 5th in the entire country. If the Cornhuskers could translate that rebounding performance to even a slightly better output on their own end, they would be a much tougher team to beat.

Meet the Cornhuskers

Just like last season, the team Nebraska has on the floor is nothing like the one they anticipated having back in August. Oregon transfer Kamyron Brown was suspended 10 games for undisclosed reasons before ultimately being dismissed from the team. Big man Christopher Niemann has taken longer than expected coming back from his third surgery, and has played only a handful of minutes in conference play. And in January, German forward Christian Standhardinger — arguably the best player on the team — elected to transfer to La Salle.

Even with all of the departures and the slow pace that Nebraska employs, Coach Sadler still has a deep rotation that spreads the minutes out. The Cornhuskers typically play 10 different guys, with no players averaging more than 30 minutes a game. The roster isn’t full of stars, but it is full of interchangeable parts, something which works well in Sadler’s fundamentally-sound system.

The unquestioned leader of Nebraska is senior point guard Lance Jeter. Short and stocky, this former football player is truly a coach on the floor, and knows how to use his strength to finish inside. He’s currently leading the team with 11 points per game, but it’s his solid 2.4-to-1 assist-to-TO ratio that keeps the Nebraska offense churning. On the defensive end, he has really quick hands, and can swipe the ball at a moment’s notice. His steal percentage of 3.6% is 65th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy.

The other main man for Nebraska is 6’11″ Jorge Brian Diaz. With Standhardinger’s mid-season departure, Diaz is now the best post option that the Huskers have. They often run a four-out, one-in look rotating around the big man, which is part of the reason why they struggle so much on the offensive glass. Diaz is a quality scorer, who can knock down jumpers out to 17 feet, has a nice hook shot, and can easily post up against opposing bigs.

In the backcourt, former JuCo All-American Caleb Walker is making a quick impact. At 6’4″, he’s second on the team with 4.8 rebounds per game. He also brings athleticism and the ability to drive to the rim, along with an average three-point shot. The Huskers have been abysmal from behind the arc so far this season, so Walker’s 34.8% three-point mark is actually one of the best on the team.

Junior guard Brandon Richardon was the leading scorer to return from last year’s team, but this year has seen his output dip from 8.9 to 6.3 points per game. Richardson earns his minutes with hard-nosed defensive play and hustle, two attributes that are highly valued by Coach Sadler. Don’t look for the junior to light up the scoreboard this afternoon, but he will likely make his impact doing the little things.

Houston product Toney McCray is back on the court for Nebraska this season after elbow surgery caused him to miss all but three games last year. He’s the only true three-point threat for the Huskers, having knocked down more than 42% of his long-range attempts this year. He’s a catch-and-shoot guy with an incredibly quick release, so Texas must work hard to fight through the screens set for him. McCray is also athletic and can attack off the dribble, so having the bigs switch on those screens could provide some less-than-stellar results.

Off the bench, Nebraska has a pair of big men to compliment Diaz in Brandon Ubel and Andre Almeida. Ubel is a tall, skinny guy who brings some range to the four spot, but his lack of heft has made it tough for him to play solid defense inside. He’s constantly had his minutes limited by foul trouble this season, and will probably have issues against the likes of Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson this afternoon.

Almeida has also struggled with foul trouble, but his is certainly not an issue of being undersized. After needing an appendectomy just before the season, the 6’11″ Almeida reported to campus at a hefty 310 pounds. Even at Nebraska’s slower pace, he has a hard time keeping up for extended minutes, and he’s often fouling opponents when he gets out of position and can’t recover in time.

In the backcourt, Drake Beranek is providing about 18 minutes per game off the bench. A transfer from Division II Nebraska-Kearney, Beranek is a quality shooter who also plays fiesty defense. This year, he’s made 38.5% of his three-pointers, and he sank more than 42% in his previous season at the D-II level. Although the Huskers hardly ever get to the foul line, Beranek is nearly automatic when he does make it there. He was 82% at the line in D-II, and is 81.8% from the stripe so far this season.

Coach Sadler also has a pair of guards in Ray Gallegos and Eshaunte Jones who are chipping in 13 minutes each per game. Jones was a madman behind the arc last season, where he hit 43.5% of his attempts. This season, the book is out on Jones, and defenses have held him to just a 31.7% three-point mark.

Gallegos, meanwhile, is still learning the game as a sophomore. He has issues turning the ball over and has made just six of his 41 three-point attempts. If he can find his long-range shot, he’ll be a great role player for Nebraska. As it is right now, he’s simply a guy who can give the starting guards a quick breather.

Keys to the game

As they did against Oklahoma State on Wednesday night, the Longhorns need to attack the Huskers inside-out. This serves two purposes, as it can lead to a lot of fouls on a thin Nebraska frontcourt, and also opens up the perimeter for the Longhorn shooters. Kansas absolutely decimated Nebraska in the second half of their last meeting by employing this attack. The Huskers love to double down on the blocks, so if the Texas bigs are ready to make the quick pass back out, it should lead to a bevy of threes.

On defense, Texas will want to force Diaz off the blocks. He can certainly knock down the midrange jumper, and even has a salty turnaround in his aresenal. But, he’s much more difficult to defend if he’s catching the ball in or near the paint. In addition, Diaz is one of just two consistent offensive rebounders, so having him away from the blocks when the guards put up shots should make it even easier for Texas to dominate the defensive glass.

Finally, the Longhorns need to reclaim their own misses. The biggest part of Nebraska’s defensive success is their ability to clean the glass and force opponents into one-shot possessions. If Texas can take advantage of their greater talent inside, they can really cripple a typically-stout Husker defense.

When a team has lost five of its last seven games, any win is a big win. When a team has lost five of seven and then wins by forty points, that’s flat-out monumental. While Texas’ 91-51 win did come against the league’s cellar dwellers, this afternoon’s performance was so different from what fans have seen from the Longhorns the last three weeks that it can’t help but to inspire some hope.

Naysayers will latch on to Nebraska’s record and paint this as nothing but an anomaly from a Texas team that is on life support. But what is lost amidst the 1-9 conference record and the absolute mudholing that took place at the Frank Erwin Center is the fact that this Nebraska team is very, very stingy on defense.

The Cornhuskers led the Big 12 in field goal percentage coming into this game, while their defensive efficiency of 0.936 points per possession was 66th in the nation. By our rough math, Texas posted an efficiency mark of more than 1.2 points per possession against that typically-stout Husker defense. An offensive explosion like that could mean that maybe — just maybe — after nearly four months of tinkering with the lineup, Rick Barnes has finally found something that works.

What looked good

The story of the game was the promotion of J’Covan Brown to the starting lineup, and the difference was quickly apparent. With a slashing guard in the lineup who actually possesses the ability to finish at the rim, the Longhorns were able to make the Husker defense react and leave other men open. This resulted in an excessive number of open looks, and Texas shot more than 61% from the field in the first half, including 7-of-11 from behind the arc.

As Barnes continued toying with new lineup combinations, Dexter Pittman and Dogus Balbay saw their playing time decrease. Shockingly enough, the Longhorn offense looked even better for it. Texas’ half-court sets suddenly featured excellent spacing, while having Jordan Hamilton and Gary Johnson on the court for longer stretches meant that defenses had to defend tall, quality shooters even further from the paint.

Hamilton’s play was the most impressive, when you consider where he’s come from. Sure, Avery Bradley lit up the scoreboard with an insane 6-of-6 start from behind the arc. But it was Hamilton who had clearly made adjustments to his game, as he tried very hard to avoid the mistakes that had hampered his play in previous weeks. Jordan was passing up the types of contested shots he willingly threw up against the likes of Oklahoma and Kansas, instead opting to work the ball inside. Lo and behold, when the Texas post players drew defensive help, Hamilton was left with open looks — and he often made them count.

Jordan’s final line was a staggering 16 points, five rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and a steal. After going 3-of-21 in his last two games with just one assist to four turnovers, Hamilton’s performance against Nebraska was the definition of a 180. He certainly still needs to work on his defense and was still getting an earful from Coach Barnes in the second half, but if that is the kind of night Hamilton can have on a regular basis, it will be tough to beat the Longhorns in the future.

At the point, Brown continued to show his own growth. While he still favors the flashy pass to the safe one — sometimes to his own detriment — Brown now seems to recognize where the ball needs to go and isn’t always in shoot-first mode. His ridiculous alley-oop to Bradley late in the first half will likely be on every set of Texas highlights the rest of the year, but he made an equally impressive no-look feed into the post in the second half that left Nebraska frozen. Brown’s defense was much better tonight, and he posted a 2-to-1 assist-to-TO ratio in his 30 minutes on the court.

The play of the experienced frontcourt might have been overshadowed by the fantastic performances from the freshman trio, but it was definitely worth noting. Johnson and Damion James quietly posted identical 13-point, 9-rebound lines, but perhaps more importantly combined to shoot 8-of-10 from the line. For Texas to be successful, James and Johnson have to play well both in the midrange and in the paint, which means that they must make it count when they are fouled inside. It’s been well-documented how Damion’s free-throw woes have cost Texas in the past, but the importance of him converting from the stripe cannot be overstated.

What needed work

While the win was dominating and the offense impressive, there were still some things that were disappointing for the Longhorns. Perhaps most troubling was another weak performance from Pittman. The big man played just 16 minutes this afternoon, and his offensive woes against the constant double-teams continued. Defensively, Dexter still played very, very well, stifling the Nebraska bigs and logging an authoritative block. But considering the Texas offense looked much more fluid without him taking up space inside, it may be time to think about the role Big Dex serves in the Texas gameplan. Perhaps the Longhorns are best served by utilizing Pittman in short stretches, where he serves to ramp up the physicality and defensively own the paint.

In addition, Jai Lucas did not show much in his twenty minutes on the court. It should be noted that Jai didn’t do anything particularly poorly, and in fact made quite a few hustle plays that are worth mentioning. His scramble for a loose ball led to the Brown-Bradley alley oop, and he pulled down a pair of boards amidst much taller traffic.

Unfortunately, Jai gives up so much height that it’s nearly impossible for him to get off a shot, which makes him as much of an offensive liability as Balbay and Justin Mason. The difference is that those two players bring a defensive intensity to the court which earns them solid minutes, while Lucas’ vertical shortcomings make him a liability on defense, too. It’s not that Lucas is really doing anything wrong when he’s on the floor, but there’s no question that there are other players who can provide more if given some of Jai’s minutes.

Looking ahead

Seeing Texas play a free and open style of basketball was exciting and certainly came as a breath of fresh air after the last few weeks. But looking ahead to the next opponent, this up-tempo style might be a tad worrisome. The Missouri Tigers live for high-speed basketball where they can force mistakes and score easy buckets, so if Texas elects to continue this style of play, they will have to be very, very careful to maintain ball control.

Meanwhile, the picture in the muddled Big 12 became a little clearer on Saturday afternoon. At the beginning of the day, there were just two games separating second place from eighth place. Thanks to losses by Texas Tech and Oklahoma, the group vying for those first-round byes became a little bit smaller. Now, K-State and A&M are tied for second at 7-3, while Baylor, Missouri, and Texas are just a game behind. While a win on Wednesday night will not be easy, knocking off the Tigers would be a huge boost as Texas works towards one of the top four seeds in the conference tournament.

After losing five of their last seven games, the Longhorns are faced with what is certainly a must-win. With four road games left in the final seven games, Texas must win every home game on the schedule to ensure they have a shot to earn of the league’s four first-round byes in the conference tournament. Fortunately for the Horns, this afternoon’s game is one that they certainly should win, against a team that is young, shorthanded, and much less talented.

Doc Sadler’s Cornhuskers have been dealing with injuries to their top players all season long. Before the year even began, Nebraska lost Christopher Niemann, a 6’11″ sophomore who would have been the team’s starting center. With the loss of the team’s big man, explosive guard Toney McCray decided to try to play through an elbow injury when doctors suggested he would need surgery. After just three games, McCray realized he couldn’t play through the pain and packed it in for the year. With two of the team’s presumed starters out of the mix, Sadler has had to rely on a bunch of freshmen and JuCo transfers to get through the season.

Junior guard Lance Jeter is one of those transfers, a stocky point guard built in the mold of Byron Eaton. He played football at Cincinatti before transferring to Lincoln, and it shows in the way he can barrel through defenders. Jeter isn’t a very fast guard and he tends to dribble the air out of the ball, but without him on the floor, the Nebraska offense often looks lost. The Longhorns should easily be able to keep Jeter in front of them on defense, but should keep an eye on him beyond the arc, where he’s hitting 39% of his looks.

When Jeter isn’t manning the point, the duties typically fall to Sek Henry. Unfortunately, Henry is a defensive specialist and not a quality floor general. Pressure on Henry beyond the perimeter will often stifle the Husker offense before it can even get going. On the other side of the ball, though, the Longhorn guards are going to be frustrated by Sek all afternoon long.

Ryan Anderson is arguably an even better defender than Henry, logging nearly two steals per game. On a team with a slow pace of play, that stat speaks volumes. For the last three years, Anderson has had to play out of position thanks to a lack of post depth on the Nebraska roster. This year, the Huskers have more bodies down low, so Anderson is able to work more from the wing and attack off the dribble. Thanks to his previous experience playing down low, Anderson is able to put it in the hoop in a variety of ways, and is the team’s leading scorer.

Just behind Anderson in the scoring ranks is Jorge Brian Diaz, a redshirt freshman from Puerto Rico who has really developed nicely over the course of the year. He still makes some boneheaded mistakes and misses some point blank looks, but he seems to be adjusting to the physical post play in the Big 12. In addition to banging around down low, Diaz also has a pretty good turnaround jumper that can certainly frustrate his defender.

Also eating up minutes in the frontcourt is German-born Christian Standhardinger. Like Dogus Balbay, Standhardinger played on a foreign team with professionals, and was forced to sit out the first half of the year as a result. Since joining the roster for conference play, Standhardinger has played at a high level of intensity. He’s a scrappy player who is always hustling, and is reminiscent of OU’s Eduardo Najera in both playing style and hair style.

The third big man in the mix for Doc Sadler is freshman Brandon Ubel. At 6’10″, the Huskers are expecting big things out of the Overland Park native, but so far he has yet to impress. Ubel misses a lot of easy looks in the paint and gets pushed around pretty easily by opposing bigs. With some experience and muscle, he’s going to make an impact in future seasons, but for now he’s mostly quiet in his 16 minutes per game.

With Ubel spending more time on the bench, Quincy Hankins-Cole has recently seen more PT as a frontcourt reserve. He’s another junior-college transfer, so he gives Sadler more experience and more polished play than the freshmen sometimes do. Hankins-Cole isn’t a flashy player or a superstar-in-waiting, but he provides quality minutes down low and will earn a few points and rebounds every game.

Brandon Richardson is the team’s third-leading scorer, and has made quite a jump from his freshman year to his sophomore one. Richardson is a favorite of Coach Sadler thanks to his hard-nosed play and hustle, but he’s also a pretty good shooter and is nearly automatic from the line. He’s not going to score a ton of points, but where he’ll be noticed this afternoon is on the defensive end, as he will likely make life miserable for the Texas guards.

The biggest impact off the bench often comes from guard Eshaunte Jones, nicknamed “The Bear.” He’s hitting more than 44% of his looks behind the arc, where he’s taken 79 attempts on the year. If Nebraska manages to play their style of basketball this afternoon, Jones could be the difference an upset win or another road loss.

Keys to the game

If the Longhorns are going to win this one easily, they must dictate the speed of the game. The Cornhuskers are one of the 50 slowest teams in the country, and they try to win basketball games by limiting possessions and keeping it close with suffocating defense. If Texas can increase the number of possessions, it will magnify the difference in skill between these two offenses, and the Horns should cruise to a victory. If Nebraska manages to slow things down and keep the score in the 50- or 60-point range, it could be another close one for Texas.

As Mark Rosner reported last night, J’Covan Brown will be in the starting lineup. At the end of the Kansas game, fans saw Brown attack the rim and force the issue. They also saw him make a few turnovers down the stretch that helped scuttle a late comeback try. The Longhorns must have J’Covan play smart basketball against a very well-coached defensive team. If he is making mistakes that give Nebraska extra possessions, it plays right into their game plan.

Finally, it’s important that Dexter Pittman breaks out. This isn’t necessarily a key to the game, as Texas can still probably beat Nebraska without a big game from Big Pitt. But it’s clear that he has lost some confidence on the offensive end, and he will certainly be needed down the stretch in conference play. If Pittman can have a quality game against the Huskers, perhaps it will give him a much-needed boost for the final weeks of the season.

It’s a mess of sleet, ice, and snow outside as the Big 12 Championships roll into the second day of action. Although temperatures are expected to be back in the 70′s within a week, Mother Nature decided that folks traveling to OKC for the tournament would just love a three-day visit from some bitterly cold weather. So rather than going out in this last gasp of winter that has gripped the city, we’ll take a look back at all of yesterday’s action from the Ford Center.

[11] Texas Tech 88, [6] Texas A&M 83

The best game of the day was certainly the last one, although it seemed like the nightcap between Texas A&M and Texas Tech was well on its way to being the worst of the four first-round match-ups. In fact, when we finally threw in the towel at halftime and hit the exits, the Aggies led by 19 points, and there were no more than 1,500 hardy fans remaining in the seats. But those who stuck around were treated to the single most-impressive performance in the history of the Big 12 tourney.

Mike Singletary — a forward whose role all season long was simply that of an effective sixth man — scored 35 points in the second half, including 29 straight for Texas Tech, and led the Red Raiders back from a 22-point deficit to steal the win. Oddly enough, we were joking midway through the first half that Singletary was Tech’s entire offense. At the time, his four points were all that Tech had mustered in the first seven minutes of the game. Who knew how accurate our wisecracks would actually be?

[9] Baylor 65, [8] Nebraska 49

While Nebraska’s four-guard sets have sometimes made it difficult to rebound against bigger teams, it seemed that a match-up with the similarly guard-oriented Baylor Bears might hide that weakness for Coach Doc Sadler and the Cornhuskers. That was anything but true in this one, as the Bears outrebounded Nebraska by a ridiculous 43-18 margin. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Kevin Rogers grabbed more boards than Nebraska all by himself. Rogers posted a double-double with 20 rebounds and ten points.

It’s also notable that this game started the day off with three technical fouls. There were three more in later action, and an additional warning on the Oklahoma State bench even after they had already been tagged with a T. Despite the temperatures outside, it was quite heated inside the Ford Center.

[7] Oklahoma State 81, [10] Iowa State 67

Perhaps the most heated of all the action came in the prime-time game, featuring the Cowboys from OSU. The Pokes hail from Stillwater, just 66 miles NNE of the Ford Center, and the arena was packed to the gills with folks wearing road-cone orange. Craig Brackins took charge early for Iowa State, as he often does, and drew not only tons of whistles from the refs, but the ire of the OSU faithful as well. The fans grew more and more restless as the fouls piled up for Oklahoma State, while the Cyclones stayed foul-free.

With seven minutes left in the first half, the Pokes had seven team fouls to the zero for Iowa State, and some additional commentary from the OSU bench heading into the media timeout resulted in a technical foul. The irate crowd absolutely ate up the tactical maneuver from Coach Travis Ford, and when the Cyclones were finally whistled for their first infraction with only three minutes left in the first half, mock cheers rained down on the court and Ford slapped the scorers table so hard it could be heard from across the arena.

Interestingly enough, foul calls in the second half were much more even until Iowa State was forced to intentionally hack at the Pokes in the final minutes. It’s tough to tell if this was a result of Ford’s lobbying or of OSU’s newfound commitment to pounding the ball down to Marshall Moses in the paint, but the newfound whistle equity allowed the Cowboys to cruise to a first-round win.

After a 24-4 run put the Longhorns up by twelve points with seventeen minutes left, it appeared that Texas could coast to a much-needed road win over a low-scoring Nebraska team. But as they have done numerous times this season, the Longhorns melted down the stretch and made questionable decisions in the final minutes to choke away another victory. This time, it resulted in a 58-55 loss in Lincoln, Nebraska, just the second time in the last eleven years that Texas has been defeated by the Cornhuskers.

The Longhorns (15-7 overall, 4-4 Big 12) built their large lead with solid defensive play, holding Nebraska to just two field goals during a thirteen minute stretch spanning both halves. But poor three-point defense reared its ugly head once again, as the Huskers (15-7, 5-4) hit four of five from long range the rest of the way, including an Ade Dagunduro rainbow taken from just outside Omaha that put them ahead for good.

Poor decision making was again a culprit in the loss, as A.J. Abrams tried to force the issue once again. With Texas only down two and holding the ball with 30 seconds to play, Abrams fought a futile battle to work for an open shot. But with three defenders in his face, rather than looking for his open teammates, he decided to force up a prayer from 25 feet. It was the second straight game where Abrams forced up a contested trey in the waning seconds, as his long-range look in a tie game against Missouri clanged off the rim with 32 ticks left on Wednesday night.

The loss was the third straight for Texas, who now drops into sixth place in the Big 12, half a game behind Kansas State and Nebraska, teams which now both hold tiebreakers over the Longhorns. The three-game skid is the first since the 2004-05 season, a year in which they were without LaMarcus Aldridge (hip injury) and P.J. Tucker (academic ineligibility). You would have to go all the way back to 1997-98 — the last season of the Tom Penders era — to find another such slide in Texas history.

Lost in the sting of defeat were solid performances by Dexter Pittman and Damion James. Big Dex was a force down low, but his game was hampered by foul trouble throughout. Pittman and the rest of the Longhorns seemed to be a step behind the smaller, quicker Nebraska guards, and the infractions quickly piled up. With Dexter’s minutes spread out, James had to step up on the glass, and did so in a big way. He finished the game with 13 points and 12 rebounds, despite fighting his own foul trouble.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Texas, with the Oklahoma State Cowboys arriving at the Frank Erwin Center on Tuesday night, currently ranked 11th in the nation in three-point percentage. For a Longhorn team that has let many opponents thrive from the perimeter, the outlook remains troublesome.

If there was ever a must-win game for the Texas Longhorns, this would be it. They have lost two straight games by a combined eight points, slipping to only .500 in conference play, where they sit just a half-game above the dreaded fifth-place line.

So while it’s certainly time to stop the bleeding, the Longhorns have the unenviable task of doing so on the road against a very well-coached team that has historically takes them to the wire. Although Texas has defeated the Cornhuskers nine out of the ten meetings under Coach Rick Barnes, the last two meetings against new Nebraska coach Doc Sadler have been much more interesting. In 2006, the Longhorns escaped Lincoln with a one-point victory — a contest they also entered on a two-game losing skid — and won by only four last season in Austin.

But if Tuesday night’s game against Missouri was the worst possible match-up for the Longhorns, this afternoon’s contest with Nebraska could be one of the best. The Huskers play a style of basketball that is nearly identical to Texas, but do it with a smaller, less-athletic team. If Texas plays sound basketball, they should escape Lincoln with another narrow victory.

By the numbers

As we just mentioned, watching a Nebraska game can be eerily similar to watching this year’s Texas team. While the Longhorns average just 67.4 possessions per game, the Cornhuskers run things at a slightly slower pace, averaging 63.8 possessions. Today, Texas will not have to worry about dictating the pace of play or preventing from falling into a transition battle. It’s going to be a half-court slugfest, and the team that can best utilize their limited possessions will come out on top.

The best measure of that skill is Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency metric, which represents how efficiently offenses and defenses work. Just as with the tempo statistic, these two teams are nearly identical in efficiency. Both Texas and Nebraska are solid defensive squads with slightly above-average offenses, and are so closely matched that their efficiency margins (offensive pts/poss – defensive pts/poss) differ by only .065, with Texas on top. If you were to extrapolate with the tempo these two teams play at, we should be looking at a game hovering around 60 points, with the winner clinging to a four-point margin of victory. It might be time to break out the Tums.

Meet the Cornhuskers

The biggest question coming into this season was how Doc Sadler would replace big man and go-to scoring option Aleks Maric. The Aussie averaged a double-double last season for Nebraska, putting in more than 15 points with 10 rebounds every night. Without him, the current incarnation of Cornhusker basketball is a four-guard look, with an unreliable “post” player inside that can hardly stay on the floor for five straight minutes.

Miniscule Cookie Miller leads things at the point for Nebraska, checking in at an alleged 5-foot, 7-inches. But if Cookie is truly that tall, then Muggsy Bogues was a power forward. What Miller lacks in height and muscle, though, he makes up for in unabated scrappiness. He’s one of the fastest players on the floor, a fiesty defender, and has a knack for taking ridiculous-looking shots that somehow find their way in the hole. But perhaps most importantly, he is a quality floor general who keeps his teams turnovers low while dishing out nearly five assists per game.

Although Sek Henry is third on the team in scoring with nine points a game, the thing Coach Sadler loves about him most is the quality defense he gives night in and night out. He’ll hassle your guards on the perimeter and make it hard for the offense to get started, and even provides about a steal per game.

Senior Steve Harley leads the team in scoring, although that title changes from game to game. Entering this contest, Harley has 11.8 points per contest, and does it with solid jump shooting and nice range. He’s not the team’s best three-point shooter, hitting just over 36% of his long-range attempts. But Harley has an excellent mid-range jumper, and he can use it not just for the easy two, but also to pull the defense out and open up the driving lanes for the other three guards.

The other main scoring threat for Coach Sadler is Ade Dagunduro, a 6’5″ swingman that has become the team’s de facto post presence. He is often matched up defensively with the biggest players that the opponents throw out there, and he’s not afraid to bang with the frontcourt players to earn his points. Ade is a very lengthy player with great handles that can drive the lane, but needs to step up his consistency in Big 12 play. He has had breakout, 20-plus point nights against quality teams such as Missouri and Kansas, but nearly disappeared on Wednesday against Colorado. If he has an off night, it will be much harder for Nebraska to grind out the win over the Longhorns.

While the four guards run the show, Coach Sadler’s offense relies on one post player who can step out and set screens or start things from the high post. Junior Chris Balham fills that role in the starting lineup, although his propensity to collect fouls like Pokemon cards makes him nearly inconsequential in most games. He has yet to play more than fourteen minutes in a conference game, and it seems that even on nights when he’s not fouling indiscriminately, that the knee problems which have bothered him the last two seasons flare up once again.

Off the bench

For most of the season, Coach Sadler has gone with an eight-man rotation, but has lately been trying to expand his bench to include ten contributing players. With his defense-first philosophy, a deeper team is definitely going to be needed to last through the second half of conference play and into the post-season.

Ryan Anderson is the biggest threat off the bench, and despite his 6’4″ frame, he often picks up the slack for Balham down low. He is actually the team’s leading rebounder, despite playing only 24 minutes per game, and he has no qualms about bodying up on defense in the paint. On offense, Anderson uses his long-range threat to make himself a true dual-threat player. He can knock down the three, or slash to the basket on a moment’s notice. Even though this junior is technically a bench player, he will be a big factor in today’s game.

Another bench player who sees a solid chunk of minutes every night is three-point weapon Paul Velander. At one point just a few weeks ago, he actually led the nation in three-point accuracy, but has since slowed down in conference play. Even with the cold spell, he’s hitting over 44% of his threes this year, and will certainly cause a problem for a Texas team that allowed Kansas State to light them up from long range.

Toney McCray is a smooth freshman wingman from Texas that Coach Sadler sees as the future of the team. And if you’ve seen the flashes of brilliance from this kid, you can tell why. McCray is only averaging 16 minutes per game, but has been seeing significant minutes in most of Nebraska’s conference games. He’s another guy who can knock down the three or glide to the rack, so look for him to make a few key buckets in this afternoon’s contest.

Guard Brandon Richardson is one of the players that Coach Sadler is trying to work into the gameplan a little more as conference play rolls on. After not seeing the floor in the first four Big 12 games this year, Richardson has given quality minutes in the last four contests. He’s yet another quality three-point shooter, and you can tell he’s eager for more minutes by how hard he plays when he’s on the floor.

Cole Salomon is the other player seeing more minutes in recent action, as he’s averaged more than ten minutes in the last three games after playing less than a minute per game during the first eighteen of the year. He’s not going to score many points, if any, but proved against Kansas that he was willing to crash the glass despite being just a 6’4″ guard.

Keys to the game

Give Dexter the ball – Dexter Pittman was a huge risk/reward proposition against Missouri, and it showed. While he set a career high with 25 points, it was his poor defense that let the better-conditioned Tigers blow past him for key buckets late in the game. But against Nebraska, he should have an absolute field day. There is absolutely no one on this Cornhusker team that can hope to defend him or outrebound him. And because Doc Sadler loves the slow, grind-it-out style of play, Dexter will not be out of place having to run up and down the floor. He can hide in the back of a zone defense — something Nebraska seemed to be completely confounded by when Colorado used it — and dominate on the offensive end.

Destroy Nebraska on the glass – The Cornhuskers are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, — in fact, there are only six teams with poorer numbers in the NCAA — which means that they have to be incredibly efficient with the basketball. Part of the problem is that they are so severely undersized, but some of the blame also falls on the fact that they are so committed to defense that three Nebraska players are usually backpedaling as soon as the team’s shot is released. Texas has to limit the Cornhuskers to a bunch of one-shot possessions, and on the offensive end they must utilize their massive height advantage to extend their own possessions with timely rebounds.

Control the basketball – Nebraska doesn’t run Missouri’s adopted “Forty Minutes of Hell” style of play, but they are very good when it comes to winning the turnover battle. Their +6.2 turnover margin ranks in the top five nationally, and it’s even more impressive when you stop to consider how few possessions there are in a typical Nebraska game. Their opponents average 18 turnovers per contest, so when there’s less than 64 possessions in a game, that leaves Texas with very, very little margin for error.

Texas returns home after a surprising loss in Lubbock, hoping to maintain their hold on the Big 12 Championship and a 1-seed in the conference tournament next weekend. Standing in their way are the suddenly resurgent Nebraska Cornhuskers, winners of three of their last four, including a road upset of Texas A&M just a little over a week ago. With the early tip time and likely meager crowd, the Longhorns will have to be careful against a Nebraska team that can surprise anyone on any given night.

By the numbers

Nebraska’s game is built upon their excellent defense, which is ranked 20th in the country in efficiency. Over their last ten games, the Cornhuskers have allowed only two teams to notch an eFG% of greater than 50%. Doc Sadler’s team will try to limit the number of possessions and rely upon their stingy D to keep the score low enough that they can snatch a victory.

While Nebraska turns the ball over only about thirteen times a game, that number can be a bit misleading because of their pace of play. That slow-down brand of basketball that the Cornhuskers utilize means that their adjusted tempo is 302nd in the country out of 341 Division I teams. If Texas can not only pressure the ball, but also force the tempo against the stubborn Huskers, they can easily cruise in this one.

The starting five

Nebraska is completely built around the game of big man Aleks Maric. The 6’11″ Aussie leads the team in scoring and averages a double-double with a line of 16/10. Not only can he showcase a myriad of post moves, but Maric is an excellent passer who draws the double team and has an eye for the interior dish or the back-door cut. Coach Sadler also likes to run high screens with Aleks, drawing out the bigger post defenders and opening up the inside lanes for their slashing guards. Texas will have a tough time matching up with the big man, but should be able to shut down the rest of the anemic Nebraska offense.

Point guard Cookie Miller is the other key player for Nebraska, although an injury suffered at Texas A&M on February 23rd has kept him out of the last two games. There’s no word yet on whether or not he will return to the floor this evening, much less the starting line-up. If he does play, Texas will be facing a guard who is quick on the dribble-drive and is a deft passer. He’s still turning over the ball more than you’d like for a point guard, but as he gains experience over the years he will likely develop into a hell of a threat. Miller is also a short guard, so he does not give the Longhorns a poor match-up defensively if he’s on the floor.

A candidate for the Big 12 All-Newcomer team is JuCo transfer Steve Harley. He’s another tiny guard who checks in at 5’11″, and he can shoot it from anywhere on the floor. But despite his tiny size, he’s not afraid to take it inside and try to earn his points amongst the trees.

Ryan Anderson is a 6’4″ guard who can hang out on the perimeter in the 4-out, 1-in look that Sadler employs. But on defense, he’s often mismatched with much taller players at the 3 or the 4. The Longhorns don’t go big often enough for this to be a huge factor in today’s game, but he will give up a few inches against Damion James and could find himself in a huge mismatch if he’s ever up against Connor Atchley, Clint Chapman, or Alexis Wangmene.

At 6-foot, 5-inches, Ade Dagunduro plays like a man much longer than he actually is. The “guard” also has to deal with the match-up issues that Anderson faces, but he is a solid defender and rebounder who can often hold his own against the taller players. Dagunduro also has a nice mid-range jumper, has shown range out to 18 feet, and can take it to the rack if the defense press him.

Off the bench

Sek Henry may start this game in place of Miller, but has often been a key sixth man for Coach Sadler this year. He has been tasked with running the point while Cookie has been injured, but it isn’t a natural role for him. He’s much more of a slashing guard, although his scoring punch hasn’t really been seen until the last few games. He’s good for five to seven points, but shouldn’t be a huge problem for the Horns today.

Sophomore guard Jay-R Strowbridge is playing about eighteen minutes a game and reminds me of a poor man’s A.J. Abrams. He’s undersized, has a quick release, and has been hitting threes at about a 38% clip so far this year. If he somehow gets hot tonight, it could make things interesting.

With the 4-out, 1-in look, Nebraska has oftentimes struggled on the offensive glass this year. The recent play of sophomore Chris Balham is helping with that problem, as he’s earned double-digit minutes in seven conference games after hardly playing throughout the non-conf slate. In those seven games, Balham is averaging 3.5 boards per contest, which would surprisingly put him fourth on the team.

What to look for

While Nebraska could feasibly win this game today, this is a program that is building for the future. Coach Sadler has redshirted five players, including a little-used sophomore, and will only be losing Maric to graduation this summer. If Texas takes care of business, this should be a one-sided affair.

1) Control the glass – The Longhorns can’t afford to let Nebraska suddenly become a solid rebounding club. The Cornhuskers are not a very good offensive team, so limiting them to one-and-done possessions should keep Nebraska from scoring enough to hang with Texas.

2) Limit Maric’s touches – It’s difficult to keep the big man from touching the ball considering the entire NU offense runs through him. But if Texas can keep him from catching the ball in the low blocks, things will be much easier tonight. Of course, they could also get him in early foul trouble like Oklahoma State did…

3) Play up to potential – This seems like a silly key point, but the fact of the matter is that Texas played one of its worst games of the year on Saturday. If the Longhorns play the way that they should, tonight’s game should not ever be in doubt. But play poor defense again or turn it over like they have in the last two, and things could get dicey.

Although slots four through ten are no longer separated by just a game as they were this time last week, the league is still a complete mess in the middle as the season winds to a close. Thanks to a complete tanking by Kansas State — losers of four straight and five out of six — the Baylor Bears actually control their own destiny in regards to the 3-seed in Kansas City. And with a late-season push, even the Oklahoma State Cowboys are within striking distance of that fourth and final bye in the conference tournament.

Texas Longhorns (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Sunday)
Outlook: The loss to Tech puts the Longhorns in a tie with Kansas once again, but they hold the tiebreaker for the #1 seed in Kansas City thanks to the victory over the Jayhawks last month. The crowds for this week’s games could be abysmal, with the Nebraska tip at 6:30 P.M. and the Oklahoma State game being played during Spring Break.

Kansas Jayhawks (11-3)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech (Tonight), at Texas A&M (Saturday)
Outlook: Unless the Longhorns stumble, the best that Kansas can hope for is a split title and the 2-seed in the post-season tournament. But Kansas must match Texas stride-for-stride down the homestretch, and their schedule is admittedly more difficult. Tech has a very slim shot at the NCAAs, but a road win in Lawrence would propel them to the top of the bubble discussion. And with A&M fading fast, their backs will be against the wall when Kansas comes to town on Sunday. KU cannot afford to overlook either one of these two teams.

Baylor Bears (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Texas A&M (Wednesday), at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Outlook: Thanks to the head-to-head win over K-State, the Bears would claim the 3-seed if they win their remaining two games. But a stumble against A&M or Tech opens the door for the four teams sitting just a game back at 7-7, so Scott Drew’s guard-tastic team has to stay on top of its game this final week.

Kansas State Wildcats (8-6)
Remaining games: vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Saturday)
Outlook: While Baylor does hold the tiebreaker, the Wildcats have the more manageable schedule this week. The home game against Colorado should finally snap the KSU slide, but this team has struggled all season long on the road and Hilton Coliseum will be a tough place to win on Senior Night. A split this week could drop the ‘Cats all the way from first place at the beginning of February to an opening-round game next Thursday in KC.

Texas A&M Aggies (7-7)
Remaining games: at Baylor (Wednesday), vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Outlook: While the K-State slide might seem monumental, the Aggies are the only team in the country this year who have fallen from the Top 10 to sweating things out on the bubble. A&M managed less than a point a minute in Norman on Saturday, and that simply won’t get the job done against the high-powered offenses of Baylor and Kansas. If Texas A&M wants to feel secure about its place in the NCAAs, they really have to steal that road game in Waco on Wednesday night, one that Longhorn Road Trip will be watching live from the Ferrell Center.

Oklahoma Sooners (7-7)
Remaining games: at Oklahoma State (Wednesday), vs. Missouri (Saturday)
Outlook: Of the four southern teams knotted at 7-7, Oklahoma has the easiest schedule left. The road game against Bedlam rival OSU won’t be easy, but a 9-7 finish and a potential 4-seed is within the grasp of the Sooners.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-7)
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma (Wednesday), at Texas (Sunday)
Outlook: Raise your hand if you thought OSU would be earning fringe bubble talk with a week left to go in the season. Anyone? Fry? Bueller? The Pokes have a bitch of a finish in Austin on Sunday, but home court in the Bedlam series could put them above .500 in league play for what feels like the first time since Grover Cleveland was in office.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-7)
Remaining games: at Kansas (Tonight), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Outlook: Pat Knight already has two Top 25 upsets on his nine-game bio, but both of those came in the friendly confines of the United Spirit Arena. This difficult final stretch will test the Red Raiders, and they could easily drop both games and find themselves playing in the dreaded 8-9 game next week.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-8)
Remaining games: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Colorado (Sunday)
Outlook: After a promising non-conference start, Nebraska fizzled in Big 12 play. Winning three of their last four has them in the mix, but a tough road date with the Longhorns could quickly kill that momentum. The home game against Colorado on Sunday should provide an easy win, setting the Huskers up for potential home games in the NIT.

Missouri Tigers (5-9)
Remaining games: vs. Iowa State (Wednesday), at Oklahoma (Saturday)
Outlook: A possible split to finish the season for the Tigers, who have to be happy with even five conference wins after their entire team decided to have a brawl in a nightclub. If only they’d decided to have their Ultimate Fighting Championship prior to the game with Texas…

Iowa State Cyclones (4-10)
Remaining games: at Missouri (Wednesday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
Outlook: With K-State struggling on the road, the Cyclones could put a nice capper on a disappointing season by pulling off the home upset on Jiri Hubalek’s senior day. While the season has generally been a wash, the young talent that Coach McDermott has on-board could mean that great things will be happening in Ames in the near future.

Colorado Buffaloes (3-11)
Remaining games: at Kansas State (Tuesday), at Nebraska (Sunday)
Outlook: Richard Roby will finally exhaust his eligibility. It’s about damned time.