The worst regular season for the Texas basketball program in nearly two decades comes to its quiet end on the South Plains this afternoon as the Longhorns take on Texas Tech. This year, Texas suffered its worst start in conference play since the 1970′s, posted its first losing record in conference since Tom Penders’ final season in 1997-98, and will need a miracle run at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to avoid missing out on the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years.

With no hopes for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, Texas is playing only for seeding in the Big 12 Championship. If West Virginia loses at home to Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns can lock up a No. 7 seed in the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tech. That would set up a game against TCU on Wednesday in Kansas City, with the winner advancing to face the No. 2 seed, which will be Kansas or Kansas State. If the Mountaineers defeat Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns will be playing for nothing but pride when they tip off in Lubbock.

Meet the Red Raiders

For an in-depth look at the Texas Tech roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

The Longhorns entered their first game against Texas Tech with an 0-5 Big 12 record and in desperate need of a win. The opening minutes of the game did little to calm the fears of Longhorn fans, as the team scored just 10 points in the first eight minutes, while point guard Javan Felix picked up two fouls.

With Felix on the bench, Ioannis Papapetrou took over primary ballhandling duties and Demarcus Holland stepped up. Texas closed out the half with a 25-14 push, building a lead as large as 13 late in the first half. Holland played 17 of the first 20 minutes, scoring nine points with aggressive drives and a triple. His three steals also flustered Josh Gray (No. 5) and the Tech offense, which coughed it up nine other times in the first half.

In the second, Texas extended its lead to as many as 16 points in the first few minutes. Tech refused to fold, however, slicing the lead to only eight points with just under eight minutes to play. After wasting late leads against USC, UCLA, Kansas, and West Virginia, it looked like the Horns might once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, Papapetrou fueled a late-game surge, hitting a trey before assisting on three straight buckets. The Longhorns outscored Tech 17-6 over the next five minutes and cruised to a 73-57 win, their first victory in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Julien Lewis led Texas with 18 points, despite having a rough 2-for-7 performance behind the arc. The Longhorns also received a strong effort from freshman Cameron Ridley, who chipped in six points and ripped down ten rebounds. Texas made it a point to get their big man the ball, and it led not only to points in the paint, but opportunities for other Horns.

Since then…

The loss to Texas was the first in a nine-game skid for the Red Raiders, who finally broke out of the funk last Saturday with a home victory over TCU. Porous defense was the culprit in all of the losses, with the Red Raiders allowing 1.18 points per possession during the losing streak. Their best defensive effort came in a narrow road loss to West Virginia, where they still allowed the anemic Mountaineer offense to put in 1.015 points per possession.

Big man Dejan Kravic (No. 11) has continued to be inconsistent for Coach Walker, performing admirably in early February losses to West Virginia and Kansas State before going into a terrible slump. In Monday’s loss at Kansas, Kravic hit his absolute low, posting an offensive rating of five.

To put that performance into perspective, we can compare it to the day that Northern Illinois tied an NCAA record with four points in one half and went on to score 25 total. The Huskies had only one player who posted a single-digit offensive rating, and that was bench man Akeem Springs, who somehow managed an ORtg of just one.

It’s clear that Texas Tech is much better when Kravic is able to use his throwback game to earn points in the paint. Unfortunately, he has had little success doing that in conference play. If he continues to struggle this afternoon, the Red Raiders will likely find it tough to close out their season on a positive note.

At the point, freshman Gray has put up some solid performances down the stretch, but he is still struggling with decision making. His speed is very tough to defend and he can get to the rim with ease, but his lack of a consistent outside shot allows opponents to sag off. When opponents hunker down and take away his driving ability, Gray will often make a questionable pass inside that results in a turnover.

Even with those weaknesses, Gray scored 46 total points in back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State. He also dished out six dimes against TCU, with many of those coming after he had sliced up the Horn Frogs off the bounce. The freshman clearly has a bright future in the Big 12, but needs to make better passing decisions from the perimeter and he will have to work on finishing at the rim and developing an outside shot over the summer.

Keys to the game

1) Come out with intensity – United Spirit Arena was once a dangerous road trip in the Big 12, as Kansas repeatedly found out in the late 2000′s. Unfortunately, numerous coaching changes and abysmal seasons have killed the crowd support and turned the arena into an empty cavern. That provides little energy for games, and it can make it difficult for visiting teams to show up to play. Kansas and Kansas State both struggled to put Tech away until late in their visits to Lubbock this season, while Iowa State actually fell victim to the Red Raiders in mid-January.

With the Longhorns having very little to play for, they will have to manufacture their own energy this afternoon. Although the team could be playing for a No. 7 seed in the Big 12 Championship, that doesn’t provide too much motivation. If they come out flat like they have on numerous occasions this season, the Horns will certainly let Tech hang around and be in a position to pull off an upset.

2) Force mistakes – In the first meeting, Texas forced Tech into 19 turnovers and converted that into 22 points. That was no anomaly, as the Red Raiders have struggled controlling the ball all year. Their turnover rate of 21.3% is one of the 100 worst marks in D-I hoops, and they actually have coughed it up slightly more against Big 12 opponents, with 21.5% of their possessions ending in a miscue.

With Holland now in the starting five, the Longhorns will get even more minutes out of a guy who gave the Red Raiders fits in the first game. If they can get a repeat performance from him and force Tech to waste their possessions, the Horns should be able to finish the regular season with a win.

3) Clean up defensive glass – Even though Texas won the first game comfortably, their effort on the defensive glass left a lot to be desired. The Horns allowed Tech to reclaim 48.6% of their missed shots, and the Red Raiders turned all of those second chances into 17 extra points. The Longhorns had particular trouble with Jordan Tolbert (No. 32), who grabbed 13 boards on the night, with eight of those coming on the offensive end. If the Longhorns allow that many offensive rebounds in this game, a Tech offense that typically struggles to score will suddenly become much more dangerous.

It has been a rough season for the Texas Longhorns, who are sitting at 0-5 in conference play for the first time in nearly 40 years. They will need a miraculous finish to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in Rick Barnes’ 15 seasons on the 40 Acres, and they just lost sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes for at least three weeks with a broken bone in his hand.

If there were ever an opponent the Longhorns would be happy to see in their current funk, it would be the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Barnes is a perfect 14-0 against Texas Tech at the Erwin Center, and the Red Raiders are in the midst of their own disappointing season. Interim head coach Chris Walker is trying to put the pieces together in Lubbock after the program lost coach Billy Gillispie less than two weeks before the start of practice.

The Longhorns still have five games to play without sophomore guard Myck Kabongo, who will miss 23 contests this season due to an NCAA suspension. With Texas Tech and TCU both coming to the Erwin Center during that five-game stretch, the Longhorns have the chance to build a little bit of confidence and momentum before Kabongo’s return. Texas’ schedule is favorable for the final eight games, so there is still time to right the ship and battle for a post-season bid, even if the NCAAs are ultimately out of reach.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders struggle even more than the Longhorns when it comes to scoring, although the margin is razor-thin. Texas Tech has posted an adjusted offensive efficiency mark of 0.948 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. The Longhorns, meanwhile, average an adjusted 0.951 points each time down the court.

Tech’s inability to score is the result of very poor shooting, especially from outside. The team has made only 26.5% of its three-point attempts this season, the ninth-worst mark in all of Division I hoops. Tech has just two players who have made more than 30% of their three pointers, and that pair has combined to average just over two makes per game. That long-range futility means that opponents can sag way off of the perimeter on defense, making it harder for the Red Raiders to get the ball into the paint.

Knowing that Tech faces packed-in defenses, it might come as a surprise that the team has a two-point field goal percentage that is currently ranked 68th in the country. The Red Raiders make just over 50% of their shots from inside the arc, thanks to easy looks on putbacks and dribble penetration from guards and wings. The team’s 35.3% offensive rebounding mark is 70th in the country, while their assist percentage of 44.3 ranks in the bottom 20 nationally.

Early in the year, the Red Raiders were getting out and pushing the tempo. However, in conference play, Coach Walker has taken the air out of the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and increase his overmatched team’s odds to pull off the upset. Although Tech is averaging 69.1 possessions per game, that number has plummeted to just 64 possessions per game in Big 12 contests.

While the strategy has only led to one upset, it is keeping the Red Raiders competitive for longer against much better opponents. Tech trailed Kansas by just two and Oklahoma by five at halftime in each of those games, but went on to lose by 14 and 16 points, respectively. The Red Raiders also hung with Oklahoma State for about 14 minutes in their game, staying within three points. The Pokes blew Tech out of the water over the final 26 minutes, outscoring their opponents by 31 over that stretch.

Meet the Red Raiders

The key player for Texas Tech is actually their sixth man, 6’7″ junior forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30). Crockett can knock down midrange jumpers and threes, but has suffered from the same shooting inconsistencies that have plagued the entire team. Fortunately, he has a nice repertoire of post moves that he can use against defenders of all sizes and is usually able to get to the rack, even through contact. Crockett has also shown a very nice turnaround jumper throughout his career at Tech, so he’s still able to score near the paint even when opponents play sound defense.

Crockett also leads the team with eight rebounds per game, and has a defensive rebounding rate that is just outside the Top 50 nationally. Crockett reclaims 24.1% of opponents’ missed shots when he is on the court, and also snags 11.3% of his offensive rebounding opportunities.

Fellow 6’7″ forward Jordan Tolbert (No. 32) is also a big part of Tech’s success on the glass, but he does his work as a member of the starting five. The sophomore is also ranked nationally in both rebounding categories, grabbing 11.6% of his offensive opportunities and 19.9% of his chances on the defensive end. Although he averages only 8.5 points per game, his rebounding contributions and interior presence on D are key for a team that is relatively undersized.

The other big man in Tech’s starting five is 6’11″ junior Dejan Kravic (No. 11), who transferred to Lubbock from York University in Ontario. Kravic has been very impressive in his short stint on the High Plains, showing off an old-school kind of game. He can use either hand in the post and has an incredibly soft touch on his numerous hook shots and floaters. Although his shot is unorthodox, it’s effective. At times, it can look like Kravic is almost pushing the ball over the rim and down into the basket.

At the point, Josh Gray (No. 5) has been very impressive at times, but has also had his share of freshman mistakes. Gray is lightning quick with the ball and can make passes when it looks like there is no opening, but he also tends to over-penetrate and sometimes forces shots against good defense or early in the shot clock. While it looks like Gray will be a very good point guard in the near future, at this point the results are still mixed.

Freshman Dusty Hannahs (No. 2) has worked his way into the starting lineup, earning the nod in all six Big 12 games so far. He was Player of the Year in Arkansas as a high school senior, and is Tech’s only real three-point threat this season. Hannahs has knocked down 39.4% of his long-range attempts, but is averaging just 6.5 points in his 19 minutes per game. Although he has shown the ability to drive and sink a floater in the lane, more than 68% of his buckets have come from behind the arc.

Junior Jamal Williams, Jr. (No. 23) is the final member of the starting five, hailing from Brooklyn. He arrived at Tech via the juco route, playing his first two seasons at Lake Land College in Illinois. Williams plays excellent perimeter defense, frustrating opposing guards who like to use dribble penetration. At 6’4″, he also provides some quality defensive rebounding from the wings, reclaiming more than 10% of opponents’ misses.

Off the bench, Tech relies on a trio of options in the backcourt. Daylen Robinson (No. 10) is another juco transfer who can give backup minutes at the point, but often plays out of control. His even assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:1 underscores that inconsistent level of play.

Toddrick Gotcher (No. 20) is still considered a freshman after playing just nine games last year and using his medical redshirt. He brings some length and strength to the perimeter in his 6’4″ frame.

Senior Ty Nurse (No. 4) is averaging just over 12 minutes per game and is having a very difficult final season. He averages less than a point each night and has made only 10.3% of his threes, a shocking drop from the 38.8% mark he posted as a junior. Nurse had made an immediate splash in Lubbock, scoring 29 points in his first game with Tech last year. He started 24 of the team’s 30 games and led the team in minutes played, so the drop-off in his senior year is surprising and disappointing.

Keys to the game

1) Deny second and third chances – The Longhorns still have the nation’s best defense, as measured by effective field-goal percentage. Unfortunately, their defensive efficiency has been killed by sending opponents to the line and allowing them too many offensive rebounds.

While Texas Tech is a very poor shooting team, they have shown a willingness to crash the glass and they extend possessions as a result. The Red Raiders have preferred to slow Big 12 games down, so the importance of each and every possession will be magnified tonight. Texas has to close out its defensive stops with rebounds, as a few second chance baskets here or there could be the difference in a low-scoring battle.

2) Protect the basketball – The first ten minutes of the Texas/Oklahoma game on Monday night looked like something out of Keystone Cops or a Buster Keaton film. The Longhorns coughed it up on eight of their first ten possessions, yet still remained in the game.

One thing the Tech defense actually does well is force turnovers, as the Red Raiders cause mistakes on 22.3% of their opponents possessions. As outlined above, this will be a low-possession game where every trip down the court will be crucial. Wasting possessions with miscues could keep the Longhorns winless in conference play.

3) Keep the bigs out of foul trouble – With Holmes out of commission, the Longhorn frontcourt will likely be a rotating cast of characters. Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh were caught biting on pump fakes against Romero Osby on Monday night, and the fouls piled up as a result.

Tech’s Kravic has proven to be a very crafty big man, so the Longhorn forwards cannot afford to make the same mistakes tonight. Ridley, Ibeh, Holmes, and Connor Lammert are going to have their hands full with Kravic, Tolbert, and Crockett, and having to play with foul trouble is only going to make things tougher. The youngsters need to play sound defense and stand tall in the hopes of avoiding dumb fouls underneath.

Margin for error is a thing of the past for the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ young team lost any wiggle room they might have had in their quest for the NCAA tournament, falling to Oklahoma State and Baylor in back-to-back games. The two defeats put Texas right back on the bubble with only three games left in the regular season.

Few people hold the illusion that the Longhorns will march into Allen Fieldhouse and earn a win against Kansas in the season finale. That means that Texas has to win their next two games and one in the Big 12 tournament to even get to the 20-win plateau. Thanks to an incredibly soft bubble this season, Texas could even still squeak into this year’s NCAA tournament with less than 20 wins.

Regardless of how many victories the team finishes the year with, what the Horns simply cannot afford to have is the stench of a loss to Texas Tech emanating from their résumé If Texas goes down in Lubbock this afternoon, it’s time to start making plans for the NIT.

Meet the Red Raiders

To learn more about the Texas Tech players and the team’s style of basketball, check out LRT’s game preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first game

The Longhorns set the tone early, swatting Texas Tech’s shots with regularity. Unable to score, the Red Raiders were further discouraged by a Texas offense that penetrated at will and scored in bunches. Senior Clint Chapman was the biggest benefactor, scoring 20 points on a ton of easy looks and a perfect 8-of-8 mark at the line.

The game was never in doubt, and Texas built a lead as large as 25 points in the second half. Despite the deep hole, Texas Tech continued to fight, reeling off an eight-point run before trading buckets down the stretch. Texas cruised to a 74-57 victory, as three different Horns scored at least 17 points.

In the post-game presser, Coach Barnes showed concern over that late defensive lapse, saying his team started to “play with no purpose.” If the Longhorns manage to build a big lead at United Spirit Arena this afternoon, you can be sure that the coaches will remind them to stay focused.

Since then…

Texas Tech managed to avoid the historical shame of an 0-for-conference season, whipping Oklahoma at home two weeks ago. The Red Raiders locked down Sooner superstar Steven Pledger, holding him to just four points. A box-and-one defense was especially effective for Tech down the stretch, as Bean Willis stuck with Pledger and frustrated him in crunch time.

The Red Raiders were unable to build on that victory, however, scoring just 38 points in a home loss to A&M three days later. Even more shocking than that final output was the fact that Tech managed just 12 of those points in the final 21:30 of the game. The Red Raiders posted an offensive efficiency mark of only 0.716 points per possession, coughing it up on more than 26% of their trips down the floor.

Tech followed that game with a predictable drubbing in Allen Fieldhouse at the hands of the Jayhawks, but then performed admirably in a road game against Iowa State. Although the Cyclones ultimately won by a 72-54 count, the Red Raiders trailed by just three points at the under-eight media timeout. Unfortunately, Tech managed just two points the rest of the way as Iowa State pulled away for the victory.

Keys to the game

1) Force turnovers – The Red Raiders have one of the few rosters in the country with less experience than Texas, and that youth has shown in the form of constant miscues. Tech is one of the five worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage, losing the ball on 25.9% of their possessions. If the Longhorns defense can ensure that Tech continues that trend this afternoon, it will not only cripple the Red Raider offense, but also fuel the transition game for Texas.

2) Make the freebies – While Tech is one of the worst five teams in terms of turnovers, they are nearly as bad when it comes to sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 49.6% is one of the 10 worst in D-I hoops, and it means that Texas Tech opponents shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

The Longhorns are knocking down 73% of their free throws so far this year, but have had random games where that number has been closer to 60%. Leaving points at the line will only serve to keep Tech in the game, something that is incredibly dangerous on the road.

3) Make Big Lew uncomfortable – Robert Lewandowski has proven to be a very streaky player in his four years at Texas Tech, and when he’s on a hot streak he can be incredibly effective. On the other side of the coin, he’s also proven that a rough start can essentially knock him out of the game before it really even gets going.

If the Texas defense can replicate their work from the first game, Big Lew will have a hard time getting started. Forcing him to take tough shots early and attacking him on defense should knock Lewandowski out of his comfort zone. Without a big game from their biggest player, Tech will have a hard time pulling off the upset.

The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10″ Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

When the calendar turned to 2010, the once-invincible Texas Longhorns unraveled in a fashion rarely seen in sports. After starting 17-0, last year’s team sputtered down the homestretch, winning just 7 of their last 17 games. This year’s batch of Longhorns have clearly learned from their past mistakes. Instead of wilting down the stretch, they are visibly improving as the season goes along. While Texas was a dominant defensive team during a very tough non-conference run, they have turned it up another notch in conference play.

Last night was more of the same, as the Longhorn defense forced 17 turnovers and held Texas Tech to 38.2% shooting from the field en route to a 76-60 win over the Red Raiders in Austin. The victory moved Texas to 8-0 in Big 12 play, one game ahead of Kansas, and 3.5 games ahead of third-place Baylor.

It looked like yet another blowout in the early going, as Texas held the Red Raiders to just 11 points in their first 20 possessions. At the same time, the Horns were finding open shots everywhere they looked. They built a lead as large as 21 points in the waning minutes of the first half, powered by 6-of-11 shooting from behind the arc.

The second half was a different story, and it resulted in a much closer game than anyone could have expected. The Longhorns took six minutes and 46 seconds to make their first field goal in the second half, letting the Red Raiders slice the lead to just six points with 11:20 to go. But J’Covan Brown sandwiched a pair of threes around a mid-range jumper from Gary Johnson, and the Horns cruised to victory.

What looked good

In the first half, everything looked good for Texas. Jordan Hamilton knocked down his first four attempts from three-point range, while the Longhorn defense held Tech to just 0.55 points per possession over the first 12 minutes. Tristan Thompson was getting great position on the blocks and taking perfect angles to score once his teammates fed him the ball.

One of the main men dishing out assists was J’Covan Brown, who had another solid game off the bench. His two three-pointers stopped the bleeding in the second half, and he finished with 10 points and three assists in 26 minutes on the court.

The two-headed monster of Alexis Wangmene and Matt Hill also chipped in from the bench, taking advantage of their smaller Tech opponents. Wangmene earned three points at the line, while Hill had a pair of putbacks and an easy layup off an assist from Jai Lucas. Hill also grabbed six rebounds against an undersized Tech squad.

What needed work

While Hill grabbed six rebounds, the Longhorns did a poor job rebounding against a Tech team that is routinely abused on the glass. In Lubbock, Texas won the rebounding battle by 19. In Austin, they only outrebounded Tech by three. The Longhorns allowed the Red Raiders to grab 37.3% of their missed shots, after allowing them to win just 19.2% of the offensive rebounds in Lubbock. The 37.3% mark was the sixth-highest OR% for the Red Raiders in their 24 games this season.

A big cause of the rebounding woes was Gary Johnson’s absence on the glass. While GJ scored 16 points, largely on the strength of his smooth long-range jumper, he was a ghost on the boards. The team obviously benefits from his 17-footer, as he typically sinks that shot, while pulling bigger defenders out of the lane. But the failure to grab even a single board on the defensive end could prove to be critical against a better ballclub than Tech.

On defense, the Horns gave up far too many easy looks during the last three-quarters of the game. It may seem ridiculous to harp on the defense when they allowed just 0.873 points per possession. But a big reason why Texas was able to post good point-per-possession numbers is because they forced a lot of Tech turnovers.

The Red Raiders coughed it up on 24.7% of their possessions, meaning that they were making a very high percentage of their shots when they managed to hang on to the basketball. The reason? Easy layups and jumpers coming off of curls when the Longhorn defenders completely lost their men. That smacks of lazy defense with too much ball-watching and not enough rotation.

Perhaps the Horns played down to their competition, knowing they could give partial effort on defense and still win. A fair argument, but still a troubling one. If they have a similar lack of effort in Colorado, against a team that hardly ever turns the ball over, Texas will leave Boulder with a loss.

Finally, it must be noted that the sloppy effort wasn’t limited just to the defense over the last thirty minutes. The Longhorns also had just as much trouble hanging on to the basketball, piling up more turnovers (16) than assists (15), many of them on boneheaded errors. Cory Joseph had a pair of double-dribble calls, while the Longhorns fumbled numerous passes just feet from the basket.

Thankfully, this weak effort came against one of the worst teams in the conference. It’s a true luxury to play one of your worst games of the year and still come away with a 16-point win. The trajectory this team has taken so far this year leads us to believe that this effort will only lead to improvement in the near future. Expect the Longhorns to once again be firing on all cylinders by tip-off on Wednesday night.

Next up: at Oklahoma (12-10 overall, 4-4 Big 12); Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT

After surviving a brutal five-game stretch that included three road games and four games against teams ranked in the Top 25, the Texas Longhorns return to the Frank Erwin Center with a perfect 7-0 league mark. Fortunately, the team gets a breather tonight, hosting a Texas Tech team that they destroyed by 31 points in Lubbock in their conference opener.

This game should be incredibly lopsided. So lopsided, in fact, that Vegas is giving the Red Raiders an extra 20.5 points. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy and his supercomputer have the Horns as 99% to win the game, with a predicted 26-point margin of victory. Perhaps the biggest question heading into this game will be just how many minutes Andrew Dick, Dean Melchionni, and Trent Morgan see in the blowout.

The first meeting

When these two teams first met in Lubbock, the Longhorns abused Texas Tech inside. Texas posted a +19 rebounding margin and scored 50 points in the paint. The Red Raiders were limited to grabbing just 19.2% of their misses, and the string of one-and-done possessions doomed them to failure.

The dominating performance wasn’t limited just to the Texas frontcourt. Dogus Balbay scored nine points and secured five rebounds, while J’Covan Brown and Jai Lucas combined for 11 points off the bench.

The Red Raiders, meanwhile, had a hard time finding anyone to score. Big man Robert Lewandowski knocked down quite a few tough shots against the tight Longhorn defense, but his 13 points were the most on the team. Guard Javarez Willis also managed to provide a spark off the bench, scoring 10 points on 56% shooting from the field.

Since then…

That loss was the second of four that Tech suffered to open conference play. During that stretch, the Red Raiders lost by an average of 21.5 points per game.

But Tech rebounded nicely, compiling three wins to get back into the muddled mess in the middle of the conference standings. The Red Raiders edged out Nebraska at home before stealing a road win against Iowa State in Ames. They followed that up with an overtime win against OSU in Lubbock, but the momentum was stopped when they were thrashed by Kansas at home earlier this week.

The key to Tech’s resurgance was better performance on the offensive glass. After getting destroyed by the Longhorn rebounders, they had a pathetic 12.9% offensive rebounding percentage in a 34-point drubbing at K-State. In each of the three wins that followed, Tech had an OR% of at least 37.5%.

Mike Singletary and John Roberson were also instrumental in the brief winning streak for Texas Tech. After the pair combined for just 7 points in the loss to Texas, they combined to average 40.3 points per game in the team’s three wins.

Meet the Red Raiders

The Red Raiders are an experienced bunch, and as a result, four of their five leading scorers are seniors. To get a detailed breakdown on all of the retuning Tech players, check out our first preview from last season.

Coach Pat Knight is also getting contributions from three newcomers, who you can read about in our preview of the first game in Lubbock.

Keys to the game

As it was in Lubbock, this game should be one-sided from the start. That means that while this section is titled “Keys to the game,” it could easily be re-named “Ways to win by more points.”

The most important thing that the Longhorns did in Lubbock was dominate the inside game. Texas has a much bigger and more skilled frontcourt, and it led to 50 points in the paint in Lubbock. The Longhorns should have no problem doing more of the same tonight.

Texas will also enjoy a blowout victory if they win the rebounding battle. Tech is not going to grab a lot of offensive rebounds, but if Texas holds them to as few as they did in Lubbock, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Tech is not a great shooting team — they find their greatest success against defenses that allow them a ton of backdoor cuts — so they will likely miss a ton of shots against a good Texas D tonight. If they aren’t getting many second chances, we could have a poleaxing on our hands at the Erwin Center.

Finally, Texas needs to stay in front of the basketball. The Red Raiders don’t break you down off the dribble, but they will beat you with quick cuts and crisp passing if you can’t see both the ball and your man. Fortunately, the Longhorns have had the most efficient D in college basketball this season, and held Tech to a pitiful 0.738 points per possession in Lubbock. It would be a major surprise to see the Red Raiders pick apart this Texas defense.

There was little doubt what cost the Longhorns a win over Connecticut on Saturday. Texas was constantly abused on the defensive glass, and in the end suffered a one-point defeat in overtime. On Tuesday night in Lubbock, there was also little doubt as to what Texas had focused on in practice since that loss. The Longhorns threw their weight around inside, racking up 42 rebounds and 50 points in the paint en route to an easy 83-52 win.

What looked good

Texas bounced back on the glass against Texas Tech, posting an impressive +19 rebounding margin. The Longhorns were especially strong on the defensive glass, grabbing 80.8% of the Red Raider misses. The commanding performance gave the team its best defensive rebounding mark since the season opener, when the Horns secured 84.3% of the misses by Navy.

Not only did the Longhorns limit the Red Raiders to one-shot possessions nearly every trip down the floor, but they also forced tough their opponents into tough looks. Tech shot just 39% from the field, the tenth time this season that Texas held an opponent to less than 40% shooting. The stingy defense and lack of offensive rebounds resulted in a paltry 0.738 points per possession for the Red Raiders, marking the eighth time this season the Longhorn D has held an opponent to less than 0.8 points per possesion.

Against Tech’s constant screens and off-ball motion, the Longhorns talked it out on defense. The good communication was obvious, especially considering that the majority of the student section in the half-empty United Spirit Arena left with 11 minutes to play. Fans were actually able to hear the Longhorn defenders calling out switches for the rest of the game.

The solid team defense forced Tech to take contested jumpers on most of their possessions. Even big man Robert Lewandowski was forced to take some tough looks thanks to solid post defense from Tristan Thompson, but unlike the rest of the Red Raiders, Lewandowski was able to knock down difficult shots. He finished the night with 13 points, many of them on great turnaround jumpers with a hand in his face.

Thompson should also be commended for his excellent work sealing off defenders when the guards were driving the lane. His heads-up play allowed Dogus Balbay and the diminutive Jai Lucas to repeatedly reach the rim for uncontested layups. The pair of guards, who were previously averaging around eight points per game, combined for 14 against Tech. Balbay in particular had a career night, grabbing five rebounds and dishing out three dimes to go with his nine points, despite having to play only 21 minutes in the blowout.

In the frontcourt, Gary Johnson bounced back quickly after struggling with his mid-range jumper against Connecticut. Although he finished just one point shy of a double-double — the first time in the last eight games he didn’t hit double-digits in scoring — Johnson shot a scorching 57% from the field.

Off the bench, Alexis Wangmene did great work on the glass. He grabbed five boards in just 16 minutes, a solid performance after he spent most of the UConn game on the bench. J’Covan Brown also played well in relief, logging more assists (three) than buckets (two). It’s clear that Brown is embracing his role as a combo guard, and has shed most of the bad habits that led him to be a shoot-first player in his freshman year.

What needed work

In a game that was this one-sided, most Texas fans know that there is only one thing we can harp on. Once again, the Longhorns struggled mightily from the free-throw stripe, knocking down just 62.9% of their attempts. As usual, the biggest culprit was the freshman Thompson, who made just six of 11. Senior guard Dogus Balbay also earned five free-throw attempts with his aggressive moves to the bucket. Unfortunately for Dogus and the Longhorns, he made just one.

Next up: vs. Oklahoma (8-8 overall, 0-2 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M.

Fresh off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Connecticut on Saturday, Texas jumps right into conference play with a road game against Texas Tech tonight. Although United Spirit Arena seems to claim one ranked opponent as an upset victim every season, the Longhorns have to be happy with the relatively easy start the conference schedule-makers afforded them. The Red Raiders sit at just .500 heading into this game, while Texas’ second opponent, Oklahoma, was picked to finish near the bottom of the league by every major publication.

On paper, the Red Raiders should have a much better record at this point. They returned a solid nucleus of players in John Roberson, Mike Singletary, and D’walyn Roberts, but have stumbled through the season thus far, losing games to the likes of North Texas and TCU. Roberts, who was troubled by ankle problems at the end of last season, missed six more games in November, and has seen limited minutes since his return.

By the numbers

As usual, Texas Tech is a well-disciplined team that relies on constant motion and cutting to earn open looks. The Red Raiders take nearly 75% of their shots from inside the arc, a stat that is even more notable when put in a national context. Out of 345 Division I basketball teams, there are only 24 teams that take less threes than Tech.

That bodes well for the Longhorns, who just so happen to have the 2nd-best two-point defense in the country. Texas is holding opponents to just 38.5% shooting from inside the three-point line. To date, the Red Raiders are making more than 48% of their two-point shots. If the Texas defense can impose its will inside tonight, it could be a very long game for the Tech offense.

The Red Raiders are also very consistent with the basketball. They only turn it over on about 18% of their possessions, significantly better than the national average of nearly 21 percent. Against a Longhorn team that doesn’t force many turnovers, that trend should hold in tonight’s game.

One trend Texas hopes to end in tonight’s game is an inability to secure defensive rebounds. Against Connecticut, the Longhorns allowed the Huskies to reclaim more than 43% of their misses, and those extra possesions resulted in a tough loss. Fortunately for Texas, the Red Raiders are nowhere near as talented on the glass. Tech is ranked in the bottom half of D-I basketball with just a 32.1% offensive rebounding mark.

Meet the Red Raiders

The top four scorers for Tech are all seniors, while the team’s fifth-leading scorer, Robert Lewandowski, is a junior. Since Coach Pat Knight has his team running an up-tempo attack this season, with the Red Raiders seeing 71.5 possessions per contest, the team essentially runs 10 deep.

The core group for Tech is made up of six players who were major contributors last season — Singletary, Roberson, Lewandowski, Brad Reese, David Tairu, and Roberts. For more on those returning players, you’ll want to check out last season’s game preview.

The newcomers are led by Jaye Crockett, a freshman forward from New Mexico. He redshirted last season, giving him an extra year to bulk up for the rigors of Big 12 play. As a result, he’s made a quick impact in his first season, chipping in nearly six points and four rebounds a game despite averaging just 14 minutes.

Reserve point guard Javarez Willis is just 5’11″, and he’s taken a winding road to get to Lubbock. Coming out of Louisiana, Willis was rated as a four-star recruit by Rivals.com, but failed to land offers from any major schools besides Tech. After signing with Coach Knight, Willis wasn’t able to academically qualify, and had to spend the last season at a prep school.

Now, finally a member of the Red Raider squad, Willis is providing about 15 minutes off the bench. He still needs a lot of work on ball control to be a viable point guard option, but has the luxury of learning the role as an understudy to a very experienced cast.

Paul Cooper is a juco transfer from Gulf Coast CC, the same school that produced fellow Tech forward Brad Reese. Cooper is only playing a little more than 10 minutes per game, but like Willis, he is building for next season. He’s clearly making the effort to improve, as he shed nearly 50 pounds after transferring from Gulf Coast. With more experience, he could make a splash in 2011-12.

Keys to the game

On paper, this is a game that Texas should easily win. The Red Raiders rely on mid-range jumpers and slashing to the rim, two methods of attack that the Longhorns have done a great job rebuffing all season long. There’s also no question that the Texas roster has more talent than the Tech one. But as we mentioned, United Spirit Arena has seen its share of upsets over the last few seasons. Add in the fact that the Red Raiders are experienced, while the Longhorns are fairly young, and perhaps the result isn’t so pre-determined.

When facing a disciplined, experienced team, everything boils down to fundamentals. Those types of teams aren’t going to beat themselves, so the Longhorns can’t do dumb things like waste possessions with turnovers. If Texas can just execute and avoid a letdown game after the emotionally-draining effort against UConn, they should return to Austin with a conference win.

The most important fundamental for Texas tonight will be good team defense. With Tech constantly moving off the ball, it takes just a split second to lose a man and give him a wide-open look. If the Longhorns can talk it out, switching and helping as needed, they should be able to frustrate the Red Raiders like they did in Austin last season. Fail to do so, and it will be more like last season’s second half in Lubbock, when the Red Raiders quickly erased a double-digit Texas lead and nearly came back for a victory.

The Longhorns also need to exploit their advantage inside. Outside of the 6’10″ Lewandowski, the Red Raiders don’t consistently play anyone who is taller than 6’7″. Texas would be wise to pound the ball inside to Tristan Thompson and let Jordan Hamilton attack the paint off the dribble. Hamilton seemed hesitant to do so against the tall, stout interior D of Connecticut, so perhaps a breakout game against a less-imposing Tech frontcourt will increase his confidence heading into conference play.

Finally, we’ll be looking for a big game from Dogus Balbay. This isn’t really a key to the game, per se, as the Longhorns can easily win this game with a quiet performance from Balbay. But Dogus had the best offensive game of his career against Tech last January, so we’re hoping to see more slashing from the Turkish guard tonight.

Earlier in the week, SI put out their Midseason Crystal Ball, with Seth Davis tabbing Texas for the Final Four, while my fellow stat-nerd, Luke Winn, selected the Horns as a Final Four “dark horse.” Meanwhile, Andy Glockner, Twitter’s most-responsive sportswriter, points out that Pat Knight should be on the hot seat in Lubbock.

With the UConn game just two days away, ESPN’s Andy Katz has a nice feature on Jordan Hamilton and the Horns. It’s an excellent read, so take a few minutes to click on over and read about the team’s revival.

Winn gets another mention for a pair of articles he put out this week. First, his look at Ohio State’s foul-aversion included eye-popping numbers and insightful quotes from top Buckeyes. If you’re into tempo-free numbers, you absolutely have to check out this piece. The stats will floor you.

Today, Winn’s weekly Power Rankings returned from a holiday hiatus, with the Longhorns ascending two spots to the No. 7 ranking. ESPN’s weekly power poll also saw a two-spot move by the Horns, who are now 10th.

The consistently impressive play of Jordan Hamilton is gaining some attention from the national media, as TSN’s Mike DeCourcy put the sophomore on his mid-season All-American team. Hamilton’s numbers also allowed him to just crack the top ten of stat guru Ken Pomeroy’s Player of the Year rankings.

Not much time to do a proper game preview for this one, but fortunately you can find most everything you’ll need to know about the Red Raiders in the preview from the first meeting of these two teams. Texas won that game 95-83, fueled in large part by surprising offensive outbursts from Dogus Balbay and Justin Mason.

The big difference in this afternoon’s match-up is that Tech will once again have the services of Darko Cohaderavic and D’walyn Roberts, two frontcourt players who will completely change the complexion of the game. The Red Raiders were incredibly thin when these teams first played each other, and the high pace of the game made it easier for Texas to pull away late despite playing absolutely horrible defense. There’s very little chance that will be the case this afternoon.

Fans can probably also expect to see Tech work the ball inside a little more than they did in the first meeting. Coach Pat Knight likes to try to get Cohaderavic going early, not only to earn the easy points inside, but to open things up for his other slashing, athletic wings and guards. A lot of responsibility will fall on the shoulders of the Longhorn frontcourt to ensure that gameplan doesn’t come to fruition.

In addition, Texas also will likely not enjoy another breakout performance from Balbay or Mason. Neither has played at that level since that game, and both have had their minutes significantly cut. Fortunately, J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton have stepped up and performed admirably in their expanded roles. Texas will need solid offensive games out of that pair of freshmen in order to produce this afternoon.

Finally, it must also be noted that United Spirit Arena is a surprisingly tough place for visiting teams to win at. It’s not that there are loud, intimidating crowds here in Lubbock. And it’s not that Tech usually fields good teams that catch even better teams off guard. But for whatever reason, ranked teams often leave United Spirit with a loss, and for a Texas squad that has piled up quite a few of those L’s in recent weeks, it’s something to be concerned about.