The Longhorns return to action tonight at the Erwin Center, having finally completed a brutal six-game stretch that was among the toughest in the country. Unfortunately, Texas had ample opportunity to steal a win or two against top-tier competition, but came up short almost every time. Only a home victory over Iowa State kept the Longhorns from an ugly six-game losing streak, and provided them with one more W against the RPI Top 50.

Now, the schedule get easier for Texas. The team’s nine remaining games come against squads with a combined record of 32-49 in Big 12 play. While the Longhorns won’t be able to just walk into Lloyd Noble Center, Reed Arena, or Gallagher-Iba Arena and expect to be handed wins, they are certainly capable of logging those road victories. Add in a pair of chances for revenge at home against Kansas State and Baylor — two teams who beat the Horns by just nine combined points — and it’s easy to see that all is not lost quite yet for Texas.

If you think of these final nine games as a new season for the Horns, Texas Tech provides the perfect opening opponent. The Red Raiders are winless in league play, and have a 45.4% chance to finish the year with an 0-18 mark, according to Ken Pomeroy. For a Texas team that may have had its confidence shaken by a handful of last-second losses over the last three weeks, Texas Tech provides an excellent chance to get their mojo back.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders are the league’s most inexperienced team, with eight freshmen and three sophomores on the roster. Just three players return from last year’s team, which finished 5-11 in Big 12 play and lost in the first round of the league’s tournament.

The Red Raiders aren’t a terrible shooting team, but they are incredibly inconsistent. The only thing they have been able to do consistently this season is turn it over, something they do on almost 26% of their possessions. Of the 345 teams in Division I, there are only five that waste possessions more frequently than Texas Tech.

When the Red Raiders do hang on to the basketball, they oftentimes have only one opportunity to score. Texas Tech reclaims just 26.8% of its missed shots, a mark that ranks the team 314th in D-I hoops. Unless the Red Raiders come out on absolute fire from the field, the stats don’t give them much of a chance for an upset this evening.

Another statistic that could make the upset difficult for the Red Raiders is their tendency to shoot from inside the arc. Although they make a respectable 36.6% of their three-point attempts, they take only 26.6% of their shots from long range. For a Texas team that has been torched by the threes of Iowa State and Mizzou, that is a great sign.

The Longhorns will also benefit from Tech’s bad habit of sending opponents to the line. Although Texas has left some valuable points at the charity stripe over its last three games, the team still has a success rate of nearly 72% from the line. Combine that with the fact that the Red Raiders give opponents one free throw for every two shots, and you have a recipe for tons of easy Longhorn points this evening.

Meet the Red Raiders

With a young, inexperienced team and a first-year coach in Billy Gillispie, minutes are up for grabs on the High Plains. Coach Gillispie has used 12 different starting lineups this season, and 10 Red Raiders average at least 11 minutes per game in conference play. He is still searching for a winning formula, and it’s clear that no player is above spending some time on the bench in order to learn a valuable message.

The team’s lone senior is big man Robert Lewandowski (No. 15), whose own inconsistent play mirrors the team as a whole. The 6’10″ Kansas native has a good stable of post moves and can easily knock down mid-range jumpers. Unfortunately, he rarely puts it together for more than a game at a time, and often takes himself out of games with early foul trouble. The big man has also had some issues making quality entry passes when he’s in the high post, which is problematic on a team that loves to run the high-low game like Tech does.

With Lewandowski oftentimes ineffective, sophomore forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30) is having to pick up the slack. He loves to use the spin move for turnaround jumpers against bigger defenders, but also knows when to isolate on the block against smaller opponents. Crockett also can knock down the long baseline shot or elbow J, which some teams have dared him to take. In conference play, he’s leading the team with seven boards and more than 11 points per game.

The only other player consistently getting rebounds for the Red Raiders is freshman Jordan Tolbert (No. 32). Although he’s only 19 years old, Tolbert already has the chiseled body of a senior forward, and he’s used it to make an immediate impact at the college level. Tolbert is strong enough to score and rebound against the big men in a tough Big 12, and as a result he’s snagging almost six boards per game against league opponents.

Beyond those three, the Red Raiders have no real depth in the frontcourt. Freshman Terran Petteway (No. 2) fits best as a small forward, and although he’s strong enough to bang inside, he’s struggled against Big 12 frontcourts. He let his frustrations get out of hand in a blowout loss to Kansas, when he punched Connor Teahan in the head to earn an ejection and one-game suspension. Petteway has a pretty good jump shot and adequate handles, so when he puts it all together he should be a reliable slashing threat who can finish through contact.

Jaron Nash (No. 44) is another option at small forward, but he sees very little playing time. A transfer from Tyler Junior College, he’s long and athletic, but has yet to find his niche with this squad.

In the backcourt, Canadian product and Midland College transfer Ty Nurse (No. 4) is the team’s most dangerous long-range threat. He’s knocked down more than 38% of his three-point attempts, including an impressive 6-of-9 performance in the season opener against Troy. Nurse is also practically automatic at the line, having made 92.5% of his freebies this year.

Guard Javarez “Bean” Willis (No. 5) is quick and shifty with the ball, and is one of the team’s only quality penetrating threats. When Willis is aggressive with the ball, he’s able to find good looks for himself and his teammates, but it seems like he fails to flip that switch most of the time.

Freshman Kevin Wagner (No. 10) is another quick, talented guard who has worked his way into the starting lineup for the last three games. A hometown kid, the former Lubbock Estacado star is generously listed at 5’8″, and would likely lead the team in assists if he were playing more. His assist rate of 21.9% is best on the team, so despite averaging just about 15 minutes per game, he’s still near the top of the team leaderboard in that category.

Another freshman making an impact is DeShon “Biggie” Minnis (No. 3), who is one of the best rebounders in the backcourt for Tech. At 6’3″, the Philadelphia native is snagging nearly three boards in each Big 12 game and has parlayed that tenacity into four starts against conference opponents.

The Red Raiders are also getting about 11 minutes each from freshmen Luke Adams (No. 13) and Clark Lammert (No. 35). Adams is one of only two deaf players at the Division I level, and he wears cochlear implants along with a headband to help hold them steady. Although he’s listed at just 5’9″, Adams is a solid back-up at the point and has a quality jumper, even if he sometimes is a bit too eager to take the shot. Lammert is the older brother of future Longhorn Connor Lammert, and his height combined with a good long-range shot helps stretch the defense.

Keys to the game

1) Neutralize Lewandowski – There are a multitude of ways that the Longhorns can take the Tech big man out of the game, but the key is to get him uncomfortable early. Whether they achieve that by attacking him and drawing fouls or by forcing him off the block on offense, it doesn’t really matter. Texas just needs to make sure that Big Lew doesn’t get clicking early, because without him, the Red Raider offense usually grinds to a halt.

2) Keep Nurse off the perimeter – One of the easiest ways to get knocked off by an inferior opponent is to give up a ton of three-point shots. Ty Nurse is Tech’s best option from long range, and he’s coming in with the hot hand. In the team’s last two games, Nurse was 5-of-11 from beyond the arc, so the Longhorns have to make sure he doesn’t continue his success tonight.

3) Be aggressive – Tech’s defense constantly rewards opponents with trips to the charity stripe, so the Longhorns need to take full advantage by getting a piece of the paint. J’Covan Brown, Myck Kabongo, Julien Lewis, and Sheldon McClellan need to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket consistently. Not only will it lead to a ton of free points, but it can put the thin and already-undersized Tech frontcourt in foul trouble.

TEAM		W	L	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
	Kansas	7	1	W vs. A&M, 64-54; L at ISU, 72-64	Wed vs. OU; Sat at Miz
	Missouri	7	2	L at OSU, 79-72; W vs. Tech, 63-50	W at UT, 67-66; Sat vs. KU
	Baylor	6	2	W at OU, 77-65; W vs. UT, 76-71	Wed at A&M; Sat at OSU
	Iowa State	5	3	L at UT, 62-55; W vs. KU, 72-64	Tue vs. KSU; Sat at OU
	Kansas State	4	4	W at Tech, 69-47; L vs. OU, 63-60	Tue at ISU; Sat vs. A&M
	Texas A&M	3	5	L at KU, 64-54; W vs. OSU, 76-61	Wed vs. BU; Sat at KSU
	Oklahoma State	3	5	W vs. Miz, 79-72; L at A&M, 76-61	Tue at Tech; Sat vs. BU
	Oklahoma	3	5	L vs. BU, 77-65; W at KSU, 63-60	Wed at KU; Sat vs. ISU
	Texas	3	6	W vs. ISU, 62-55; L at BU, 76-71	L vs. Miz, 67-66; Sat vs. Tech
	Texas Tech	0	8	L vs. KSU, 69-47; L at Miz, 63-50	Tue vs. OSU; Sat at UT

The big picture

Five days ago, it looked like the Kansas Jayhawks could be well on their way to yet another conference title. They had taken care of the Baylor Bears at home, knocking the upstarts from Waco out of the ranks of the undefeated. Five days later, the Bears suffered another setback at home against Missouri, putting them a full two games back of KU. The Tigers had already stumbled on the road to Kansas State early in the conference season, and hoped to keep the Jayhawks within reach heading into their home-and-home series. Instead, Oklahoma State gave the Jayhawks even more padding in the standings by pulling off a big upset over the Tigers at Gallagher-Iba Arena.

With a two-game cushion, the Jayhawks had slight room for error. Unfortunately, they used their mulligan right away, tripping up on the road against Iowa State on Saturday. Missouri looked shaky in wins over Texas Tech and Texas, but managed to stay just a half-game behind their rivals. With the Jayhawks facing Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas State on the road over the next two weeks, things are about to get very interesting.

In the middle of the standings, Kansas State suffered a home loss to the Sooners, giving OU a season sweep of the Wildcats. Coupled with Iowa State’s statement win over the Jayhawks, it looks like there could soon be a very clear division between the league’s top four teams and its bottom six. If the Cyclones can take care of business at home against the ‘Cats tonight, it will only widen the gap.

Mid-week games

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Tuesday, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)

Meteorologist and tempo-free guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Red Raiders a 29% chance to finish the Big 12 slate winless. Of course, their best chances to avoid the conference skunking is when playing some of the league’s other bottom feeders at the friendly confines of United Spirit Arena.

While Oklahoma State finally played up to expectations in their upset of Missouri last Wednesday, the Pokes have just a 2-9 record in games away from Gallagher-Iba. If Billy Gillispie and the Red Raiders are going to avoid a dubious historical distinction, this is one of their best chances to do so. Shut down Le’Bryan Nash, and Oklahoma State becomes a very pedestrian team.

Kansas State at Iowa State; Tuesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Kansas State has been one of the toughest teams to figure out in the Big 12. The Wildcats looked great in a home win over Missouri and played tough in a narrow loss to Baylor. But in two games against the Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State looked like a completely different team. Frank Martin had his overachieving bunch in the top half of the league standings, but their recent schneid has them gravitating towards the mess at the bottom of the standings.

Tonight, the game could very well be won on the perimeter. Iowa State brings in a lofty 37.6% team mark from behind the arc, including a pair of guards in Scott Christopherson and sixth man Tyrus McGee who are making over 41% of their three pointers. Kansas State, meanwhile, has the 15th-best perimeter defense in the country, led by the quick hands of Martavious Irving. While all eyes will be on constant double-double threat Royce White, this one could be decided by the smallest guys on the floor.

Baylor at Texas A&M; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

It wasn’t long ago that the Battle on the Brazos was turning into quite the basketball rivalry. In 2008, the teams played an unforgettable five-overtime thriller that was only seen by those in the building and those dedicated enough to watch an online stream from A&M’s website. Less than two months later, the rematch was a heated affair that involved benches clearing and bottles being thrown on the court, further fueling the hatred between the two fanbases.

With Texas A&M predicted by league coaches to win the Big 12, and with Baylor sporting a lineup rich with NBA prospects, this year’s pair of games appeared to be potential classics on paper. Instead, the Aggies have failed to live up to expectations, dropping to the bottom of the league standings. A&M’s move to the SEC next season means that this will be the last time these two teams play in the regular season for quite some time, but the apathetic Aggie fanbase doesn’t seem to care. Yesterday, A&M slashed upper-level tickets to just $10 for the final installment of this rivalry. It’s a sad way to see this entertaining series come to an end.

Oklahoma at Kansas; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Jayhawks can’t get caught looking ahead to the Border War on Saturday, as Oklahoma has proven to be a dangerous team under first-year coach Lon Kruger. The first time these two teams met, the Sooners held a 34-33 edge at the break in Norman. Travis Releford led a second-half Jayhawk surge, scoring a career-high 28 points to lead his team to the road win.

Winning at Allen Fieldhouse is a nearly impossible task, but even Texas A&M made the Jayhawks sweat last Monday when they brought an injured team to Lawrence and fought Kansas until the final minutes. The Sooners are fresh off a road win against Kansas State, so their confidence won’t be lacking in this one. While Oklahoma probably doesn’t have the horses to pull off the improbable upset, they can certainly be competitive with the Jayhawks.

If the sport were horseshoes or hand grenades, these Texas Longhorns would be All-Stars. Instead, Texas fans were treated to another verse of the same old song, as their team made another furious late-game comeback, only to come up short in a 67-66 loss.

Down 10 with just less than four minutes left, the Longhorns quickly erased the deficit, taking the lead on a leaner by J’Covan Brown with 56 seconds to go. Missouri’s Michael Dixon responded on the other end, tossing in a layup with 31 seconds left to put the Tigers back on top.

On the final possession, Texas spread the floor against a surprise zone defense, with the ball coming to Brown with just over 12 seconds left on the clock. The Tigers pushed out in a two-man trap, and Brown whipped a cross-court pass to Myck Kabongo, who had to leap to keep the ball in play. His baseline drive and jumper fell short, and Texas dropped to 0-7 in games decided by six points or less.

What looked good

The Texas defense in the first half was stifling. After being torched early in the teams’ first meeting in Columbia, the Longhorns were prepared to shut down the nation’s second-best offense. Texas defenders stayed in the shirts of the Missouri shooters on the perimeter, forcing them to pass it around.

Although there were a few possessions in which a Tiger slashed to the rack unchallenged, it was a vast improvement over the first meeting between the two teams. In fact, the Tigers were held to just 0.834 points per possession in the first half, well off their season average of 1.22.

The Longhorns capitalized on that tough defense by closing out possessions with rebounds. They dominated the glass on both ends of the floor, limiting Missouri to an offensive rebounding percentage of just 21.4%, while reclaiming 44.4% of their own misses. That workmanlike effort on the boards equated to a sizeable 22-6 advantage for Texas in second chance points.

Freshman Jonathan Holmes was the team leader in boards, snagging nine on the night. His effort on the glass led to easy putback points, and he was able to log seven points for the game. Unfortunately, he also led the team in turnovers with five, which was absolutely crippling in a game decided by one point.

Fellow freshman Jaylen Bond was also tenacious inside. He ripped down seven rebounds in just 14 minutes on the court and came up with two clutch buckets following offensive rebounds. Tempo-free stats underscore just how important Bond was during his short time on the court, as his personal offensive rebounding percentage was an incredible 23.8%, while his defensive was 40.8%.

The Longhorns also benefitted from aggressive play by Julien Lewis, who repeatedly attacked with drives from the corner. He started coming on strong in the second half of the Baylor game, and that confidence seemed to carry over into this one. Lewis led the way early for the Horns, seeming to be the only consistent scorer in a first half where the team had troubling putting the ball in the hoop. In the end, the freshman finished with 12 points on 44% shooting, a much more efficient contribution than his early performances in Big 12 play.

Big men Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene were a big part of Lewis’ success in this one, providing solid seals on the help defense when he drove to the rim. Chapman also showed off some agility with a few nice post moves, scoring six points in just 23 minutes on the court.

What needed work

Unfortunately, the fifth-year senior also had some tough moments on defense. In the first half, he let Ricardo Ratliffe establish very deep post position on a lob entry that had Coach Rick Barnes absolutely livid. He called an immediate timeout and angrily motioned Chapman to the bench with a jerk of the thumb. In the second half, Chapman was so intent on not letting Ratliffe get another easy bucket that he actually backed off a driving Tiger guard to prevent the dumpoff pass, instead giving up an uncontested layup.

Brown also played matador defense, although his struggles were much more consistent than Chapman’s. In the second half, he allowed Dixon to score in bunches. In the post-game press conference, Brown told the media, “I basically gave up half his points.” He couldn’t stay in front of Missouri’s speedy sixth man, letting Dixon spark a second-half scoring explosion for the Tigers.

Texas also did itself no favors with another rash of turnovers. In the first half, the Longhorns managed just 22 points, due in large part to a turnover rate close to 25%. For the game, Texas was able to push that mark down to just 19.9%, but those 13 miscues turned into 14 Tiger points. Perhaps the most frustrating was a second-half turnover by Myck Kabongo, who compounded his error by intentionally fouling Phil Pressey to give the Tigers two shots and the ball.

The Texas offense didn’t just bog down solely due to turnovers. The Longhorns often tried to establish Chapman or Wangmene in the post, but entry passes from the wing were simply not available. Typically, the big would then move out to the perimeter to set a ball screen, but the driving lanes were usually cut off by Missouri defenders.

Instead of reacting to the Tiger defense with quick ball movement, the Longhorns spread out the floor and played isolation basketball. With the team’s only buckets coming from one-on-one drives and offensive putbacks, Texas actually headed to the locker room without a single assist. They didn’t do much better in the second half, adding just five assists, one of them coming on a three-man fast-break.

For the third consecutive game, free throws were an albatross for the Longhorns. The team shot just 66.7% from the line, leaving eight freebies on the table. Texas did a great job of attacking and earning trips to the line, but did not take advantage of their edge in free throw attempts. You could even say the Longhorns left a ninth point at the line, as one of those misses came when Wangmene couldn’t hit the front end of a one-and-one.

In the last three games, the Longhorns have made just 63.2% of their free throws, a sharp decline from the season average of 73.2% that they carried into the first of those three games. For much of the season, the one thing that the Texas offense could count on was an ability to manufacture points at the line. Instead, trips to the charity stripe have become a scary proposition during the most important part of the season.

Finally, it must be noted that once again the Longhorns looked completely lost on the final possession of a close game. It’s one thing to lose a lot of close ones when the breaks just don’t go your way, but Texas has repeatedly failed to get good looks late in the game. The final possession against Kansas State resulted in a turnover and fast-break bucket, while Brown felt that his last-second three against Baylor wasn’t a bad look, despite Coach Barnes telling him the exact opposite.

Against the Tigers, the Longhorns had a play drawn up for both man and zone defenses. The Tigers came out in a zone look, and Texas spread the floor. Coach Barnes told the media that players weren’t making their cuts, which led to the breakdown. What he didn’t explain to reporters was why he didn’t use the team’s final timeout to regroup once he saw the players failing to make hard cuts. The Longhorns had more than 20 seconds left on the clock at the start of that final possession, but wasted thirteen of them before Brown’s risky cross-court pass set up Kabongo for his missed final shot.

The big picture

Texas is rapidly running out of opportunities to log a signature win, with just two games against Top 5 opponents left on the docket. During the final two weeks of the season, the Longhorns host Baylor and travel to Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas State also travels to the Erwin Center on February 11th, but their recent slide has nearly sent them out of the RPI Top 50.

Texas has almost no margin for error at this point, essentially needing to win every game outside of the Baylor and Kansas match-ups. The odds aren’t in their favor, as the Longhorns still have road trips left to A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Despite all three programs having down years, those teams still defend their home court well, and a Texas road win is far from a guarantee.

If the Longhorns pulled off the improbable run and beat everyone left on the schedule not named Kansas or Baylor, it would put them at 20-9 overall. Even though losses to the Jayhawks and Bears would give them a respectable 20-11 record in this hypothetical, the Longhorns would still be left with just two or three wins against the RPI Top 50, with Temple being the team’s best win on the year.

The odds are long for Texas at this point, but with nine games left on the season, you can’t write Texas off just yet. If they can learn from all of these close losses and regroup in time to attack the favorable back half of their league slate, perhaps the Longhorns can finally put together a run.

Up next: vs. Texas Tech (7-13 overall, 0-8 Big 12); Saturday, 6 P.M. CT

In a season where the Texas Longhorns are at risk of losing their 13-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the young team has had more than its fair share of chances to notch marquee wins. On the road against Kansas State and Baylor, the Horns had the ball on the final possession with a chance to tie the game. Both times, Texas failed to come up with the clutch basket. At home against Kansas, the Longhorns led by four with 3:24 to play, but didn’t score another field goal en route to a crushing loss.

All of this late-game futility adds up to an 0-6 record in games decided by two possessions or less, a stat that will haunt Longhorn fans if their team ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is now just 1-5 in games against the RPI Top 50, an important metric used by the NCAA Selection Committee. Thanks to Iowa State’s upset win over Kansas, the Longhorns can add one more Top 50 win if the Cyclones can climb at least two spots in today’s RPI update.

Without knowing who Texas will face in the Big 12 Tournament, it appears that the Horns have four more opportunities against RPI Top 50 squads, with three of them coming at home. The next chance for a résumé-building win comes tonight, in the form of the Missouri Tigers. It may seem early to start calling games “must-wins,” but the Longhorns are quickly running out of time to make their case. Texas needs to get over the hump and start turning these close losses into big-time wins.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri players, stats, and tendencies, check out the preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas opened in a zone defense against the Tigers, and Missouri quickly made the Horns pay with an incredible 73% mark from behind the arc in the first 20 minutes. Texas fell behind by as much as 16 points in the first half, compounding the poor perimeter defense with a string of miscues on offense. The Longhorns ended 22% of their possessions with a turnover, including back-to-back first-half possessions that ended on a shot clock violation and a five-count.

Even with the turnovers, Texas posted one of its most efficient offensive performances in conference play. The Longhorns scored 1.135 points per possession, the second-best mark achieved against the Tigers all year. J’Covan Brown was a huge part of the success, scoring 34 points on 62.5% shooting from the field, including an 85.7% mark from long range. Myck Kabongo also came up big for the Horns, aggressively attacking the lane as he logged his first collegiate double-double.

For the Tigers, Flip Pressey was the catalyst. He scored seven points in a 50-second stretch just after the Longhorns had cut the lead to five in the second half, effectively icing the win for his team. Just a 26% three-point shooter on the season, he drilled 3-of-7 against the Horns and consistently sliced up the Longhorn defense, scoring 18 to go with 10 assists. Ricardo Ratliffe was the main benefactor of the great Missouri guard penetration, scoring 21 points on a 10-of-12 shooting day.

Since then…

Ratliffe hasn’t slowed down since the win over Texas, earning Big 12 Conference Player of the Week honors for dominating performances against Texas A&M and Baylor. The big man scored 17 points and grabbed boards against the Aggies, then followed it up with a career-high 27 points in the road win over the Bears.

On Wednesday night, the Tigers suffered their second conference loss in a game where the importance of Ratliffe’s efficiency in the paint was underscored. Although he scored 25 points in the loss, his string of superhuman shooting percentages came to an end with a 10-of-17 line against Oklahoma State. It was the first time since the season opener that Ratliffe had missed more than three shots in a game.

The Tigers followed up the loss with a surprisingly close game against Texas Tech at home. The Red Raiders actually held the Tigers to just 1.03 points per possession, the team’s worst offensive efficiency number in their 19 wins. Tech limited Ratliffe to an eight-point, four-rebound afternoon, forcing the Missouri guards to carry the team. Kim English responded and knocked down 4-of-6 from behind the arc, but the rest of the Tigers were just 2-for-15 from long range. Missouri still held on for a 13-point win over the Red Raiders, but looked rather vulnerable heading into an important week where they travel to Texas and host Kansas.

Keys to the game

1) Stop dribble penetration – The four-guard look from Missouri was practically impossible for the Longhorns to stop when the teams met in Columbia earlier this month. As a result, the scrambling Texas defense was consistently out of position in the paint, leading to easy hoops for the guards and tons of points for Ratliffe. The Longhorns must stop the ball tonight and force the Tigers to beat them with contested jumpers, or else they will find themselves in another shootout with the nation’s second-most efficient offense.

2) Keep the backcourt humming – Both Brown and Kabongo had solid outings against Missouri the first time around, and both performed very well at Baylor on Saturday afternoon. If the pair of Longhorn guards can continue that high level of play against the Tigers tonight, the team should be able to find the same kind of offensive success that they did at Mizzou Arena. Throw in a little bit of defense, and that couldbe enough for a win this time around.

3) Chapman must avoid the whistles – In addition to the dribble penetration, the foul trouble that kept Clint Chapman on the bench gave Ratliffe and Steve Moore a hall pass in the lane. Chapman was again hounded by personals in the loss to Baylor on Saturday, and you can be sure that the Tigers will attack him tonight. The big man will have to be smart with his fouls and maximize his minutes if the Longhorns want to earn the upset.

4) Win the battle on the glass – Texas actually did a good job keeping Missouri off of the offensive glass during the first meeting, holding the Tigers to an offensive rebounding mark below 29%. Unfortunately, there weren’t many missed shots from Mizzou, so that strong performance on the boards didn’t amount to much. If the Longhorns can actually force some misses in this one, another solid night on the glass will make things much tougher for the Tigers this time around. The Horns should also be able to capitalize on the offensive end, as they reclaimed 47.1% of their misses in the first game and turned those extra chances into 17 points.

It was another nail-biter for the Longhorns in Waco on Saturday, but the familiar script remained the same. Texas was on the losing end of another game decided by six points or less, coming up just short of a monumental road upset of Baylor. Despite being tied with 2:53 to play and having a shot to tie it again in the final seconds, the Longhorns saw their record in games decided by two possessions or less fall to 0-6 on the season.

Texas was carried by the play of J’Covan Brown, who scored 32 points on 50% shooting from the field, a sharp improvement from the 25.7% mark he posted in the team’s last three games. With Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo playing limited minutes thanks to foul trouble, the Horns had to have a big game from Brown to even stay in it.

Brown’s one-man show was one-upped by Baylor’s Perry Jones III, who logged a double-double with 22 points and 14 boards. He scored from seemingly everywhere on the court, knocking down mid-range jumpers, drilling turnaround looks, and posting up against the foul-plagued Texas frontcourt. Freshman Quincy Miller, a superstar whose brilliance is oftentimes eclipsed by PJ3, added another 18 points to Baylor’s winning effort.

What looked good

It was imperative that Brown finally break out of his funk and have an efficient game, but it didn’t look like that would be the case in the first half. He scored just four points in the game’s first 15 minutes, with those coming off of a goaltended layup and a pair of free throws. Fortunately, the junior was consistently setting up his teammates to score, logging three assists over that same stretch.

Coming out of the locker room, Brown played like a man possessed. He dropped 20 of his 32 points in the second half, even sinking off-balance looks that likely had the coaching staff sweating. Brown also finally found his stroke from long range, knocking down 4-of-7 from behind the arc after going 0-for-3 in the first half.

In addition to Brown’s second-half surge, the Texas defense played a big role in keeping Baylor at arm’s reach when the Bears tried to pull away. The Longhorns forced 18 Baylor turnovers for a TO rate of 26.3%, which led to 20 Longhorn points. Julien Lewis was the biggest catalyst, logging four steals for Texas.

Jonathan Holmes also had a promising start, but struggled on the defensive end and piled up the fouls. He knocked down a triple and a short jumper just outside the lane in the first few minutes of the game, but managed only one other basket the rest of the way and missed both of his free throw attempts.

What needed work

Those missed free throws were an epidemic for the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. For a team that had made 92.1% of their free throws in games against Kansas State and Kansas, the timing could not have been worse for a tragic downswing. Texas made only 16 of their 26 attempts against Baylor (61.5%), while the Bears made just under 80% of their attempts. In a game decided by just five points, leaving that many freebies at the line was an absolute killer.

In addition to Holmes’ donut at the line, the Longhorns also had crippling misses from Alexis Wangmene, who went 0-for-2, and Kabongo, who missed half of his eight attempts. Obviously, Texas won’t be able to consistently hit at that incredible 92% clip they reached against the two Kansas schools, but the 61.4% mark over the last two games is very troubling as the team heads down the homestretch of the regular season.

Texas was also scuttled by a very poor performance on the defensive glass. Although Baylor has one of the longest, most athletic frontcourts in the country, the Longhorns hurt themselves with a ton of whistles inside that led to a rotating cast in their own frontcourt. The Bears reclaimed more than 45% of their missed shots, which was the 4th-best mark the team has posted in its 21 games and was well above their season average of 37.3%.

One of those players hampered by foul trouble was Chapman, whose absence once again proved how crucial he is to the team’s success. As it was when Chapman was saddled with fouls in the road loss to Missouri, the Longhorns were abused inside for buckets and boards, giving up 22 points and being outrebounded by a count of 40-28.

While any scouting report worth its salt is going to tell teams to attack Chapman and get him on the bench, the Longhorns will have to find a way to protect their big man. That could mean switching to a zone defense against teams that aren’t automatic from long range, although the Big 12 is full of great three-point shooters. Five of the other nine teams in the league have made more than 36% of their threes so far this season, with Baylor actually cracking the Top 10 nationally with a 40.8% mark. In addition, a zone defense would only exacerbate the problems Texas has had on the defensive glass.

The optimal solution would be for Wangmene and Jaylen Bond to step up when Chapman is unavailable, but so far that outcome seems unlikely. Bond is still a fierce rebounder, and did some good work on the glass against Baylor. Unfortunately, he’s undersized for his position, and it’s caused him to really struggle on defense against bigger teams. Wangmene has also done good work on the boards, but his defense is hit-or-miss and he has problems handling the nice interior passes from Brown and Kabongo on the offensive end.

Coming into Texas’ current six-game stretch against the top teams in the Big 12, most fans had an understandably bleak outlook on the team’s future. The fact that the Longhorns were competitive in each of the first five games offers a ray of hope for the upcoming home games against the heavy hitters of the Big 12. Texas let one slip away against Kansas at the Erwin Center last weekend, but still has the opportunity to take down Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor at home in coming weeks. If the Longhorns want to keep their 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak alive, that’s exactly what they will have to do.

Up next: vs. #2/2 Missouri (19-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12); Monday, 8 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns took care of business on Tuesday night, earning a win they had to have over Iowa State. The Horns have spent most of the season positioned squarely on the proverbial NCAA tournament bubble, but another loss against a marginal RPI Top 50 team like the Cyclones would surely have darkened the postseason outlook for the Horns.

Today’s game against a deep, athletic Baylor team ranked in the Top 10 is certainly not a must-win. Even the most optimistic of Longhorn fans likely realizes just how difficult it will be for Texas to pull off a monumental road upset in Waco this afternoon. But while no one is expecting the Horns to march into the Ferrell Center and shock the nation, an improbable victory would provide a massive boost to Texas’ NCAA tournament chances.

By the numbers

The Bears roared out to a 17-0 record this season, the best start in school history. Baylor had close calls during that historic stretch, needing a clutch three and overtime to beat West Virginia in Las Vegas, while winning by just a bucket at Kansas State and against Mississippi State in Dallas. The Bears also won by three against BYU at the Marriott Center, one of the toughest venues in all of college basketball. With 11 games left until the conference tournament even begins, this Baylor team is already well-prepared for high-pressure situations.

Baylor has one of the ten most efficient offenses in college hoops, scoring 1.168 points per possession. Even against the tougher opposition in Big 12 play, the Bears have only seen that number dip to 1.149, the second-best mark in the league. Baylor’s success hinges on an incredibly high effective field goal percentage of 55.6%, a number boosted by the team’s deadly accuracy from long range. Six of the eight members of Baylor’s core rotation have made at least a third of their threes in league play, and the team has knocked down 41% of their long-range looks this season.

With a big, athletic frontline, the Bears also extend possessions when they happen to miss shots. The team’s 37% mark for offensive rebounding ranks in the Top 40 nationally, and that percentage has actually ticked up slightly in league games. On defense, that length and athleticism also leads to a lot of blocked shots, and the team’s 15.1% swat percentage is ranked 14th in the nation.

Where that height and athletic ability fails the Bears is on the defensive glass. Baylor is actually one of the 100 worst teams in Division I when it comes to securing defensive boards, as the team allows opponents to reclaim 34.3% of their misses. Under Scott Drew, the Bear defense has been synonymous with the 2-3 zone, although this year they have mixed in much more man and even a 1-3-1 look. With the team not used to having box out assignments in the zone, they have had difficulties remembering to put a body on opposing rebounders when playing man. For a Texas team that is actually very good at grabbing offensive boards, this could be huge.

Meet the Bears

While the Baylor lineup is full of highly-touted recruits and potential NBA lottery picks, the biggest impact this season has come from a junior college transfer. A player of the year at the JUCO level, Pierre Jackson (No. 55) has earned a starting spot in the team’s last two games, and it’s easy to see why. The Baylor offense is a completely different animal with Jackson on the floor, as he dices up defenses with his dribble penetration and always seems to put his teammates in the perfect position to score.

In conference play, Jackson is nearly averaging an unconventional double-double, posting 14 points and nine assists each night. In addition to being able to put the ball on the floor and thread the needle with ridiculous passes, the former Southern Idaho standout is also practically automatic from long range. In Big 12 games, Jackson has drilled 53.3% of his looks from behind the arc.

Joining Jackson in the backcourt is another guy who cans it from deep, Canadian product Brady Heslip (No 5). A transfer from Boston College, Heslip has taken 82% of his shots from downtown this season. With a 47% success rate from three-point range, it’s hard to fault the guy. Although Heslip doesn’t shoot it often from inside the arc, he has shown a deft touch when defenses run him off the perimeter. He can knock down the soft floater, and has even gone old-school with a few banked pull-up Js.

The name that all fans are likely familiar with is sophomore star Perry Jones III (No. 1). Known as PJ3, the 6’11″ forward is an all-around stud who has the NBA scouts drooling. He’s played every position in his career, so he’s the deadly breed of big man with great handles who can also knock down jumpers all over the floor.

The main knock on PJ3′s game is that he disappears in the clutch, deferring to teammates when he should be demanding the rock. Critics made this claim following the team’s losses to Kansas and Missouri, but they also failed to point out that he injured his ankle during the game against the Jayhawks. Back to full strength on Tuesday night, PJ3 posted a 21-point, 12-rebound line against the upset-minded Sooners.

Alongside PJ3 in the Baylor frontcourt is senior big man Quincy Acy (No. 4), a high-energy guy who knows how to rock the rim. In his career, Acy has 219 dunks, which account for 51% of his made field goals. He’s often the recipient of great dump-offs from Jackson, but will also fiercely throw down an offensive rebound when the opportunity presents itself. The Bears also run a simple lob play on baseline inbounds situations to get Acy dunks, something they have been doing all four years he’s been on campus. He’s also a force inside on defense, swatting more than two shots per game for a block percentage of 8.4%, a mark that is just outside the Top 50 nationally.

Freshman forward Quincy Miller (No. 30) rounds out the starting five for Baylor, and he provides yet another all-around scoring threat. On a team without PJ3, Miller would likely be the go-to guy, but at Baylor he’s an incredibly-talented second option. He had major knee surgery during his senior year of high school, so his first step still isn’t quite as explosive as it once was, but he can still score in bunches with an array of moves and a jump shot that’s good past the arc. In conference play, Miller is tops on the team with 15.3 points per game.

Coming off the bench is point guard A.J. Walton (No. 22), who lost the starting job to Jackson. Known for his outstanding perimeter defense, Walton still averages around 20 minutes per game and will likely be tasked with shutting down J’Covan Brown when he’s on the floor. Walton has a steal percentage of 4.6%, which may not sound like much, but is actually the 25th-best individual mark in the nation.

Senior forward Anthony Jones (No. 41) is another displaced starter, but he is playing his role perfectly on this deep team. He provides a lot of length for the back line of that Baylor zone, but also is a long-range threat that loves to camp out in the corner for kickouts on the offensive end. Jones has made roughly 31% of his threes so far on the season, and is also one of three Bears to have an individual offensive rebounding mark north of 10%.

Sophomore guard Gary Franklin (No. 0) is a transfer from Cal who became eligible at midseason. He’s only playing about 11 minutes per game in conference, and is essentially just a long-range catch-and-shoot threat. Sixteen of his 17 field goal attempts in Big 12 games have come from behind the arc, and he’s hitting at a 37.5% clip.

Cory Jefferson (No. 34) rounds out the core rotation, playing about nine minutes per game against Big 12 opponents. He’s a long and lean 6’9″ forward who will undoubtedly lead the team in blocked shots before he graduates. Against UT-Arlington, he blocked seven shots in 25 minutes on the court. In 10 of the team’s first 17 games, Jefferson swatted at least two shots, but he has seen very little action over the last three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Make second chances count – One of Baylor’s biggest weaknesses is on the defensive glass, which matches up perfectly with the Texas strength of offensive rebounding. The Longhorns must turn those second chances into points if they want to have any chance for an upset this afternoon. It will be even better if Texas can quickly turn those offensive boards into easy putbacks, as the Horns have really struggled in the half-court lately.

2) Get efficient contributions from Brown – A big reason for those half-court struggles has been the ball-dominating play of junior J’Covan Brown. In the team’s last three games, Brown is 18-of-70 from the floor (25.7%), having taken 40% of the team’s shots. When you consider that the Longhorns won one of those games and were in it until the final seconds against both Kansas and Kansas State, one can only wonder how Texas would have fared if Brown involved his teammates a little more.

In addition to eating up possessions with a ton of missed shots, Brown’s one-man show also led to his teammates doing very little when he was off the ball. Most Longhorns stood around on offense, failing to make cuts or set screens, instead waiting for the junior guard to come back to the ball and shoot. If Texas wants to win this tough road test, they will have to get an efficient game from Brown that involves his teammates.

3) Rattle Jackson – When Pierre Jackson is on his game, Baylor is tough to stop. The quick, tiny guard can push the issue in transition, break down the defense in the halfcourt, and hit dagger threes with little separation from his man. That being said, he’s also shown a tendency to make mistakes, and to let those mistakes snowball.

Jackson has picked up a fair number of charges on the season, so quality help defense can pin a few offensive fouls on him. In addition, his turnover rate of more than 30% is incredibly high for a point guard, oftentimes the result of him trying to do too much. The Longhorns don’t necessarily need to apply a ton of pressure on Jackson, but do need to play sound, team defense so they can capitalize when he tries to force things.

TEAM		W	L	THIS WEEK	NEXT WEEK
	Kansas	7	0	W vs. A&M, 64-54; Sat at ISU	Wed vs. OU; Sat at Mizzou
	Missouri	5	2	L at OSU, 79-72; Sat vs. Tech	Mon at UT; Sat vs. KU
	Baylor	5	2	W at OU, 77-65; Sat vs. UT	Wed at A&M; Sat at OSU
	Iowa State	4	3	L at UT, 62-55; Sat vs. KU	Tue vs. KSU; Sat at OU
	Kansas State	4	3	W at Tech, 69-47; Sat vs. OU	Tue at ISU; Sat vs. A&M
	Texas	3	4	W vs. ISU, 62-55; Sat at BU	Mon vs. Mizzou; Sat vs. Tech
	Oklahoma State	3	4	W vs. Mizzou, 79-72; Sat at A&M	Tue at Tech; Sat vs. BU
	Texas A&M	2	5	L at KU, 64-54; Sat vs. OSU	Wed vs. BU; Sat at KSU
	Oklahoma	2	5	L vs. BU, 77-65; Sat at KSU	Wed at KU; Sat vs. ISU
	Texas Tech	0	7	L vs. KSU, 69-47; Sat at Mizzou	Tue vs. OSU; Sat at UT

Texas at Baylor; Saturday, 12 P.M. CT (CBS)
A full preview of the Texas/Baylor game will be available late Friday night.

Texas Tech at Missouri; Saturday, 12:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
The Red Raiders already faced long odds to win their first league game of the season when they take on Mizzou in Columbia tomorrow afternoon. But following Mizzou’s loss at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night, you can be sure that the Tigers have had a few days of intense practices to get them ready for their next opponent.

Missouri has not lost to Tech in Columbia since the 2005 season, and the Tigers have won 13 straight home games against conference opponents not named Kansas. Ken Pomeroy gives Tech a 1% chance to win the game, but even that might be a little high.

Kansas at Iowa State; Saturday, 1 P.M. CT (ESPN)
It’s a battle of big men in Ames on Saturday, as Thomas Robinson and Royce White square off once more. Both players are averaging double-doubles against conference opponents, with Robinson posting 17.9 points and 11.7 boards per game, while White owns a 13.9/10.9 line against Big 12 foes.

The Cyclones hung tough in the first meeting between these two teams, trailing by just two points with 6:37 to go. The Kansas defense clamped down, however, limiting Iowa State to just one field goal and a free throw the rest of the way to preserve another home victory. The ‘Clones haven’t defeated Kansas in their last 13 meetings, but the gold-clad sellout crowd expected at Hilton tomorrow afternoon could help to end that streak.

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M; Saturday, 3 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Fans finally saw the Le’Bryan Nash that scouting services had drooled over in high school, as the freshman phenom carried the Cowboys to a monumental win over 2nd-ranked Missouri on Wednesday night. Nash scored a career-high 27 points, including 13 in a 3:22 stretch that erased a late Missouri lead and put Oklahoma State up for good.

The Aggies also performed well in their test against a Top 5 opponent, but faded down the stretch at Kansas on Monday night. Most impressive for A&M was the fact that they competed with the Jayhawks despite not having the services of Khris Middleton and with Dash Harris hobbled by a foot injury at the half. Middleton’s status for tomorrow’s game is still unknown, but the Aggies have actually looked better at times without their star.

Oklahoma at Kansas State; Saturday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Coach Frank Martin was so frustrated by big man Jordan Henriquez and his lack of effort that he limited him to just eight minutes when K-State lost to the Sooners two weeks ago. Four days later, he was again only on the court for eight minutes in a narrow home win over Texas, and was then suspended for the game against Oklahoma State. Reinstated in time for the Texas Tech game on Wednesday night, Henriquez only played three minutes and notched just a pair of free throws.

In the first meeting between these teams, OU big men Andrew Fitzgerald and Romero Osby combined for 39 points on 83% shooting from the field. While the home-court advantage of Bramlage Coliseum is certainly going to make the atmosphere a bit different this time around, the Wildcats will need to perform better in the post. With Henriquez playing just eight minutes in the first meeting, Thomas Gipson and Jamar Samuels couldn’t stop the Sooner big men. If they struggle the same way tomorrow night, the Sooners could escape the Little Apple with a rare road win.

With a third of the conference schedule now in the rear-view mirror, the Texas Longhorns are clinging perilously to the NCAA bubble. The young team had two big résumé-building wins within their grasp during the last week, but let both slip through their fingers. Down two against Kansas State last Wednesday, the Longhorns had the ball with 20 seconds left, but turned it over to preserve a Wildcat victory. On Saturday, Texas was up four on a top-five Kansas team with 3:24 left, but failed to score a field goal the rest of the way and let another big win fall through the cracks.

Those losses mean that the Longhorns are now 0-5 in games decided by six points or less. Even more importantly, those two games were missed opportunities to log victories over teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI, a key statistic used by the NCAA Selection Committee when choosing teams to put in the tournament.

While the Iowa State Cyclones are currently just 52nd in the RPI, tonight’s game still amounts to a must-win. Against Top 100 RPI competition, the Longhorns are 1-6, with only eight more games against Top 100 teams left on the schedule. Five of those are at the Erwin Center, so Texas must defend home court against quality competition, a trend they can start tonight.

The first meeting

The Longhorns looked to be in a good position when Iowa State do-everything star Royce White was saddled with two early fouls. Unfortunately, the Cyclones made up for their MVP’s absence by torching the Longhorns from long range. At half, Iowa State held a 10-point lead, thanks to an incredible 9-of-12 mark from behind the arc.

Texas roared back in the opening minutes of the second half, powered by a suddenly-rejuvenated J’Covan Brown. The Longhorns completely erased the deficit in less than three minutes, but the comeback bid stalled out following an ankle injury to Brown. The junior stayed in the game for a few more minutes, but was completely ineffective. When he headed to the bench for good, Texas trailed just 49-47. For the next six minutes, the Horns could only manage seven free throws, and Iowa State rebuilt a lead they would never relinquish.

The big story of the game for the Longhorns was the emergence of Clint Chapman. The fifth-year senior set career highs with 19 points and 14 rebounds, shooting 78% from the field. Texas made a concerted effort to get the big man involved early, and the Longhorn guards consistently found him open when they penetrated the lane. The game was clearly a turning point for Chapman, who has exploded in conference play, averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds in 27.7 minutes. In non-conference games, Chapman had scored just five points and grabbed 4.6 rebounds per game.

Since then…

Iowa State quickly proved that the win over Texas was no fluke, obliterating Texas A&M in College Station on the strength of a triple-double from White, who was still battling flu-like symptoms. The Cyclone schedule quickly toughened up and tested the surprise team, although the transfer-laden roster performed admirably in close games against Missouri and at Kansas. With their record leveled at 2-2, the Cyclones took care of business last week against lower-tier teams in Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, although it took a last-second, banked-in three by Scott Christopherson to knock off the Cowboys in regulation.

In conference play, White is averaging a double-double, scoring 12 points per game to go with 10.2 boards. His free-throw shooting, which has been a constant battle, continues to be subpar. The big man has made just 42.9% of his free throws in Big 12 play, so you can be sure that the Longhorns will be making him earn his points when he gets them out of position on defense.

Freshman Tyrus McGee has also increased his contributions in league play, earning Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors for stellar performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. McGee was a blistering 11-of-20 from long range and scored 37 points in the two games, and he also set a career-high with nine boards against the Cowboys.

McGee is not the only Cyclone killing it from long range, and as a result, Iowa State has actually increased the number of threes they attempt. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones have taken 44% of their shots from behind the arc, but when they make 38.8% of their attempts, you can’t blame them. In addition to McGee’s 48% mark in Big 12 games, Iowa State is also getting a solid 41.7% success rate from Christopherson.

Meet the Cyclones
For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out the game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the damage from deep – When a team takes nearly half its shots from three-point range, there’s no way you can hope to completely shut down the perimeter. Instead, Texas must attempt to limit the damage that the Cyclones do from outside. Iowa State came out on fire against the Horns in Ames, so you would have to think that Texas will be playing much tighter on the perimeter in this one. If the Longhorns can hold Iowa State at or below their Big 12 rate of 38.8% behind the arc, they have to like their chances.

2) Be aggressive – Texas was able to penetrate at will during the first meeting when J’Covan Brown was in the game. He and Myck Kabongo will have to do the same tonight to ensure that the offense finds success. When teams cut off Texas’ dribble penetration and hedge hard on ball screens, the Longhorns often stand around for the majority of the shot clock before putting up a challenged shot. Texas obviously cannot afford to do that tonight, so the Horns will have to attack early.

3) Get to the line – Building off of the last point, the Longhorns need to earn a chunk of points at the charity stripe tonight. Texas has scored nearly 27% of its points from the line in conference play, thanks in large part to an impressive 76.4% mark at the stripe. With an offense that can often stall and lose all semblance of movement, manufacturing those points with free throws is key.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Sheldon McClellan did an excellent job earning the whistles, scoring 10 of his 14 points at the line, and the Horns scored nearly 34% of their points on free throws. Doing the same tonight will not only help Texas add to the point total, but it could also handcuff Royce White with foul trouble.

TEAM		W	L	LAST WEEK	THIS WEEK
	Kansas	6	0	W vs. BU, 92-74; W at UT, 69-66	Mon vs. A&M; Sat at ISU
	Missouri	5	1	W vs A&M, 70-51; W at BU, 89-88	Wed at OSU; Sat vs. Tech
	Baylor	4	2	L at KU, 92-74; L vs. Mizzou, 89-88	Tue at OU; Sat vs. UT
	Iowa State	4	2	W vs. OSU, 71-68; W at Tech, 76-52	Tue at UT; Sat vs. KU
	Kansas State	3	3	W vs. UT, 84-80; W at OSU, 66-58	Wed at Tech; Sat vs. OU
	Texas	2	4	L at KSU, 84-80; L vs. KU, 69-66	Tue vs. ISU; Sat at BU
	Oklahoma State	2	4	L at ISU, 71-68; L vs. KSU, 66-58	Wed vs. Mizzou; Sat at A&M
	Texas A&M	2	4	L at Mizzou, 70-51; W vs. OU, 81-75 (OT)	Mon at KU; Sat vs. OSU
	Oklahoma	2	4	W vs. Tech, 66-54; L at A&M, 81-75 (OT)	Tue vs. BU; Sat at KSU
	Texas Tech	0	6	L at OU, 66-54; L vs. ISU, 76-52	Wed vs. KSU; Sat at Mizzou

Texas A&M at Kansas; Monday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN)
Most Longhorn fans remember that their favorite team’s victory at Allen Fieldhouse last year was the first in 70 tries for Kansas road opponents. What some may not recall is that the previous team to knock off the Jayhawks in Lawrence was the Texas A&M Aggies, all the way back on February 3rd of 2007. This year’s A&M team has been a massive disappointment, struggling to a 2-4 conference start despite returning one of the top two nuclei in the Big 12. The Aggie offense is only one spot out of the cellar in the Big 12 rankings, so it could be a very rough night for A&M against a Kansas defense that is one of the three toughest in the nation.

Baylor at Oklahoma; Tuesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Baylor set a school record with their 17-0 start, but took it on the chin in their first two battles with the other conference contenders. The Bears hung with Kansas at Phog Allen for a half last Monday, but fell apart down the stretch. Porous defense at home against Mizzou ended in a one-point loss, putting Baylor two games out of first place after one-third of the conference slate. If the Bears are to remain contenders, they have to defend their home court and avoid laying any eggs against the league’s lesser teams on the road. The Sooners might be just 2-4 in conference play, but they have one of the top 15 offensive rebounding marks in the country, something that could be a major boost against a Baylor team that is surprisingly ineffective on the defensive glass.

Iowa State at Texas; Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (Longhorn Network)
A full preview of the Iowa State/Texas game will be available on Tuesday.

Missouri at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
Like Baylor, the Tigers have to take care of business if they want to keep pace with Kansas. The Tigers and Jayhawks still have both games of the Border War series left to play, so winning against the conference’s bottom feeders will keep Mizzou in prime position to make a move with head-to-head victories over KU. The biggest knock on the Tigers coming into this season was their lack of a post presence following the injury of Laurence Bowers, but Flip Pressey and the Mizzou guards are making big man Ricardo Ratliffe look like an All-American. He’s already been putting up incredible numbers against the big frontlines of Kansas State and Baylor, so one can only imagine what he’ll do against an undersized Oklahoma State squad.

Kansas State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Red Raiders have an offensive efficiency mark in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, turn it over on more than a quarter of their possessions, and are one of the worst 15 teams in the nation when it comes to putting opponents on the foul line. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Kansas State team that bruises their way to the line and shuts down opponents with a stifling defense that forces miscues. Of course, United Spirit Arena is always good for an upset or two, and Tech has hit nearly 37% of their threes on the season. As many teams discover in conference play, oftentimes all it takes to get surprised on the road is for a team to heat up from long range. If the Wildcats can limit the perimeter damage, their physical advantages should be enough to avoid an unfortunate roadblock.

The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center after a difficult two-game road trip, but simply returning to a friendly arena won’t make things any easier. This afternoon, Texas has the unenviable task of squaring off with the league-leading Kansas Jayhawks, who arrive in Austin on five days’ rest and riding high after an authoritative win over previously-undefeated Baylor.

We’ve made much of the tough six-game stretch that Texas is currently in the midst of, but this afternoon marks the first of three home games out of the team’s next four contests. While knocking off Kansas, Iowa State, or Missouri won’t be easy — even at home — if the Longhorns are to add to their weak NCAA résumé, the Erwin Center is the most likely place to do it.

The Jayhawks have won all three of their true road games so far this season, but all three wins came against rather weak competition. Southern Cal, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have an average KenPom rank of 154 in D-I hoops, while the Longhorns currently check in at 25th in Pomeroy’s rankings. Kansas has knocked off big-name teams already this year in the likes of Georgetown, Ohio State, and Baylor, but none came in a true road environment.

By the numbers

For the last seven seasons, the Jayhawks have either won or shared the league’s regular season title, and have added five conference tournament championships during that same stretch. Many observers, myself included, thought that this year would be the season Kansas was finally knocked off of its throne atop the Big 12. Kansas lost four of five starters from last year’s Elite Eight team, but Bill Self has done a phenomenal coaching job to keep his team among the nation’s elite.

Kansas is one of just three teams to have both their adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies ranked in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. That unstoppable offense and suffocating defense add up to a scoring differential of +0.331 point per possession. Even in their first five conference games, which included contests against Baylor and Kansas State, the Jayhawks still have an impressive differential of +0.274.

Kansas has a Player of the Year candidate in Thomas Robinson down low, and his imposing presence is a big reason why the Jayhawks have one of the nation’s five best marks in two-point field-goal defense. On offense, his dominance also has helped Kansas post a 54.4% shooting percentage inside the arc, and allowed the Jayhawks to reclaim 37.1% of their missed shots. When a team shoots as well as Kansas does and gets a lot of second and third chances, it is very difficult to get a stop.

That rebounding advantage extends to the the other end of the court, as well, where the Jayhawks check in just outside the top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. KU opponents snag just 27.5% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, making it very important for teams to be shooting well if they want to beat the ‘Hawks. Texas has actually done a very good job on the offensive glass so far this year, with a 39.7% mark that is 11th-best in the nation. If the Longhorns want to pull off the upset, they will have to continue to crash the glass and extend possessions against a tough Kansas D.

Meet the Jayhawks

When you introduce a guy as a contender for national Player of the Year, it goes without saying that he’s the star of his team. Already a dominant player as a sixth man last year, Thomas Robinson (No. 0) has taken over the role vacated by the Morris twins and has put up eye-popping numbers all season long.

T-Rob has logged thirteen double-doubles on the year, and actually averages one as well, scoring 17.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. Lest you think those numbers were built against creampuff opponents, it should be pointed out that his stats are even better against Big 12 foes. In five conference games, Robinson is averaging 18 points and 12.6 boards.

Robinson is nearly unstoppable on the glass, and has both a solid face-up game and quality post moves, making him a tough match-up for centers and and forwards of all types. The junior also can handle the ball pretty well, giving Kansas an additional player who can push the tempo and try to establish the break after turnovers and missed shots.

The only returning starter from last year’s team is senior Tyshawn Taylor (No. 10), who has had an up-and-down career in Lawrence. After a win over Kansas State, Coach Self said of his point guard, “He makes plays you can’t coach. And then he makes plays where it looks like he’s never been coached.”

That polarity has extended beyond the court, where Taylor has fought members of the football team, said he wanted to transfer on Facebook, and called out his critics on Twitter. Add all of those issues to the fact that sometimes Tyshawn struggles with turnovers, and there are times where the ever-obsessive Jayhawk Nation has been quite critical of their senior leader.

Last season, Taylor put up double-digit scoring lines in sixteen games, including a masterful 20-point, five-assist effort that powered Kansas to revenge and a Big 12 tournament title against Texas. This year, he’s turned those flashes of brilliance into a consistent scoring threat, chipping in 16.2 points per game. Taylor can slice through the defense with the dribble, drills nearly 45% of his long-range attempts, and always seems to come up with big buckets in the clutch.

Joining Taylor in the backcourt is Elijah Johnson (No. 15), who is also an adept ballhandler that can handle point duties. A highly-regarded recruit out of Las Vegas, Johnson struggled to find consistent playing time on an incredibly-loaded Kansas roster during his first two seasons. Now an everyday starter, he’s averaging nearly 10 points a game and provides excellent perimeter defense. While Johnson has only made 30% of his threes, he can heat up in a hurry, as evidenced by his 4-of-8 and 5-of-7 performances from long range against UCLA and Ohio State.

The third guard for Coach Self is Travis Releford (No. 24) a redshirt junior who is yet another slashing threat in the backcourt. At 6’5″, he’s also a quality rebounder at the guard position, snagging more than four boards per game to go with his 10 points. Like Johnson, Releford also plays solid defense on the perimeter, using his height and length to frustrate other guards and post a steal percentage of 2.7%.

In the middle, 7-footer Jeff Withey (No. 5) is the epitome of a role player. Playing only about 22 minutes per game, he still leads the Big 12 with more than three blocks per game and is a big part of Kansas’ dominance in the paint. Even when he’s not blocking shots, his simple presence in the lane can affect opposing offenses, and his 12.2% offensive rebounding percentage is tops on the team. One struggle for Withey this season has been foul trouble, but thanks to his limited minutes, he rarely actually fouls out of the game.

The sixth man for Kansas is Connor Teahan (No. 2), who makes a living on the perimeter. Although he is not the team’s best three-point shooter, he still takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc, and has knocked down 37.5% of them so far this year. Texas has to stay close to the senior guard and make him drive the basketball. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks are great at moving the ball quickly and crisply, so sticking in Teahan’s shirt will be a difficult task.

Kansas also uses a trio of reserves sparingly, getting a combined 26 minutes out of Kevin Young (No. 40), Justin Wesley (No. 4), and Naadir Tharpe (No. 1) in conference play. Young is an athletic forward who has rebounded very well after transferring from Loyola Marymount. Wesley is also a transfer forward, coming to Lawrence by way of Lamar. The younger brother of former Jayhawk Keith Langford, he’s a stout 6’8″, 220 pounds and excels at shot blocking. Tharpe will be the point guard of the future for KU and is extremely quick with the ball. For now, he is simply used to spell Taylor and Johnson for a few minutes each game.

Keys to the game

1) Attack Robinson – There isn’t as much depth on this Jayhawk roster as in years past, and there’s certainly nobody on the bench who can match the skill level of Thomas Robinson. Texas benefited from getting K-State’s Jamar Samuels in foul trouble on Wednesday night, and they would see huge returns from doing the same against T-Rob this afternoon. The caveat here is that Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown must be smart about this approach, as both Robinson and Withey can easily block ill-advised shots.

2) Rattle Taylor – While Tyshawn has been a scoring machine as of late, he still has issues controlling the ball. When he is clicking and can dissect a defense, Kansas is practically unstoppable. The Longhorns must force Taylor into mistakes and keep him from feeling comfortable. If not, he and Robinson will likely put up video game numbers en route to an impressive road win.

3) Make it count behind the arc – Texas isn’t one of the best in the country when it comes to three-pointers, but against a stout interior D from Kansas, the Horns will have to knock down some outside shots. The Longhorns were a hot 9-of-16 from long range against Missouri last Saturday, but followed that up with an inefficient 7-of-22 against K-State on Wednesday. Brown was a big part of those long-range struggles against the Wildcats, so he and the Longhorns not only need to knock down their threes, but also make sure that they aren’t forcing up bad looks.

4) Build momentum early – The Frank Erwin Center has been more like a library the last two seasons, but the building has certainly been home to some electric atmospheres in the past, particularly when Kansas was in the house. Texas fans are the type to only cheer when given a reason to do so, which means the Horns need to come out hot if they want to get the full advantage of home court. Fall behind early — which is always a big danger against Kansas — and the apathetic Texas fanbase will likely start chatting about football recruiting news.