For most of the Texas fanbase, the defeat closed the book on something of a lost season. Nine of the team’s 13 non-conference games were on the Longhorn Network, a channel with practically non-existent distribution in the school’s own city of Austin. The first year of a new sports channel is certainly filled with roadblocks, as evidenced by the well-told history of the Big Ten Network. But the timing couldn’t have been worse for fans of Texas basketball, as the Horns returned just three scholarship players and welcomed six freshmen. Without exposure in the non-conference months of the schedule, most fans had their first good look at a brand new roster when Big 12 play opened in January.

The first month of conference play was rough, to say the least. The Longhorns opened things up with a road loss to Iowa State — a defeat that looked terrible at the time, but eventually proved to be just one of many big wins at Hilton for the Cyclones. Texas was able to right the ship with a pair of victories at home over Oklahoma State and A&M, but then had to march directly into a brutal six game stretch against the Big 12′s top teams. By the end of January, the Horns were just 3-6 in league play, and those fans who were forced to miss the first half of the season were quickly getting restless.

A recurring theme throughout the year was Texas’ inability to execute late in close games. Five of the Longhorns’ first six conference losses came by six points or less, and the team would finish the season with a dismal 3-9 record in two-possession games, including the 65-59 loss to Cincinnati to cap the year. In almost every late-game situation, Texas would spread the floor and lose all semblance of off-the-ball movement. Against the Bearcats, they did that exact thing on each of the three possessions following the under-four media timeout. Combine those wasted possessions with three fruitful ones for the Cincinnati offense, and you had the recipe for yet another last-minute defeat.

The repetition of the same mistakes and problems made much of the 2011-12 campaign feel like Damon Lindelof and Calton Cuse had FedExed a late-season LOST script to the Texas basketball offices. For the fans, watching Texas basketball was just as frustrating as some of the final episodes of that confounding TV show. If you looked at the big picture for Texas basketball, it seemed like the building blocks were being established for something greater down the road. In the meantime, though, the team seemed to simply be spinning its wheels.

Loyal readers of this website were probably tired of the “counting wins for an NCAA bid” and “unable to execute in the clutch” storylines by mid-January. But the fact of the matter is that when the team or a player made strides in one area, another part of the boat sprung a leak. One game we would be excited over the flashes of brilliance from Sheldon McClellan or the improvements of Clint Chapman. By the next game, McClellan would be struggling once more and Chapman would get himself into early foul trouble. The same storylines carried throughout the year, because the Longhorns couldn’t find a way to turn the page. Narratively, they were stuck somewhere in the second act.

The one positive in having such clearly defined, repetitive issues is that it makes those areas for improvement a top priority in the offseason. This year, the NCAA will allow coaches to work with their team over the summer, something that will be very important for the five returning Longhorn freshman and the stellar incoming class of recruits. Texas fans, coaches, and players know what problems need to be addressed heading into 2012-13. Now the only question is whether or not the Longhorns can make the necessary changes.

The feeling that this season was simply a table-setter for the future wasn’t limited to just the product on the court. There was never a moment during this long and difficult season where I doubted that Longhorn Road Trip would continue into a seventh season. While Rick Barnes and his big freshman class were building the foundation for future glory, I was carefully laying the plans to bring LRT and this incredible journey to a fitting end.

Longhorn Road Trip started six years ago as a crazy idea to attend every game for one season. Every year, there seemed to be another reason to keep it going. The unbalanced Big 12 schedule meant I didn’t travel to Hilton Coliseum, Mizzou Arena, or Bramlage Coliseum during the first year, so the second season seemed only natural. The Maui Invitational and the goal of 100 games brought me back for a third year, while Season Four offered a chance to see the college careers of Damion James, Justin Mason, and Dexter Pittman from start to finish. Road games in Greensboro, East Lansing, and L.A. made Season Five appealing, and the quest for 200 consecutive games meant there was no way I was missing a sixth year of trips.

But even after reaching that 200-game milestone in the road loss to Iowa State, I knew that Season Seven was on the agenda — and that it would be the last for Longhorn Road Trip in its current form. The storyline for 2011-12 was simply whether or not this young, untested team could reach the NCAA tournament and extend Texas’ streak to 14-consecutive appearances. While I was enjoying the opportunity to cover the team’s pursuit of that goal, even bigger goals and richer story arcs were just a year away.

When you throw in another trip to the Maui Invitational, a showdown with a Big East power in New York City, another excellent Big 10 road trip, return games with UCLA and North Carolina, and the first road games against West Virginia and TCU, Season Seven is going to be full of exciting trips and thrilling games. My better half — who has stuck with me through the last four years of this crazy journey — even wants to join in on XLRT2013, and I’m exploring options to hit every round of the NCAA tourney, from the First Four to the Final Four. It’s safe to say that we’ll be going out with a bang in the final full season of LRT, one that will include my 250th-consecutive game sometime in late February or early March.

With those big plans on the horizon, the icing on the cake came in the form of Myck Kabongo’s return and the signing of incoming freshman Cameron Ridley. Texas fans have been burned by numerous early entries in recent years, leading to their pessimistic view that both Kabongo and J’Covan Brown would be leaving the program at season’s end. Although Brown did elect to pursue his NBA dreams, Kabongo chose to remain on the 40 Acres, leaving the Horns with a prescient point guard that has only scratched the surface of his potential.

The signing of Ridley and big man Prince Ibeh will help to replace seniors forwards Chapman and Alexis Wangmene, although the freshmen will likely take time to adjust to the physical nature of frontcourt play in the Big 12. Sophomores Jonathan Holmes and Jaylen Bond will have to step up in a big way, as once again the interior will be the biggest question mark for UT at the start of the season.

But even with those concerns, fans will finally be greeted with a fairly familiar roster when the season tips off in early November. If the sophomore quintet can make strides during this crucial offseason, the outlook is rosy for a much more successful campaign in 2012-13. And, for the seventh-straight year, LRT will be there to cover it for you, every step of the way.

For the 14th-consecutive season, the Texas Longhorns are in the NCAA tournament. If you regularly read this website, you’re already quite familiar with that nugget of knowledge, and you also know that Texas is one of just six programs that own an active streak of at least that length. Hidden behind that gaudy number, however, is a series of disappointments.

In those 13 previous visits to the NCAA tournament, the Longhorns have exceeded seed expectation just one time. In 2002, the 6th-seeded Longhorns were able to win two games in the NCAA tournament, knocking off 3-seed Mississippi State in front of a partisan crowd in Dallas to advance to the Sweet 16.

Of those other 12 trips to the Big Dance, the Longhorns simply matched seed expectation six times, and fell short of seed expectations in six others. Seed expectation doesn’t even tell the whole story, as nine of the 13 trips to the NCAAs under Barnes ended with the Longhorns losing to a lower seed. While the Selection Committee doesn’t always get the seeding right, the overall trend is troubling. Under Barnes, it appears that the Longhorns can’t handle the pressure of being the favorite.

Fortunately, this year there are no expectations. With one of the 20 youngest teams in America, the Longhorns had to fight all season long just to get into the tournament. As a result, Texas enters the Big Dance as the lower seed in its opening game, a first in Barnes’ 14 years with the program. The Longhorns proved that they are a dangerous team in near-upsets of elite squads like Baylor, Kansas, and Missouri, but never logged a big win that would make them truly scary. Could this talented, inexperienced team be the one that finally gets the monkey off its coach’s back?

If they are going to do so, the Longhorns will have to get through the 6th-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats. Known best for their brawl with intra-city rival Xavier, Mick Cronin’s team has quietly and steadily improved over the last two months. Last weekend, a big win over Syracuse in the Big East tournament semifinals captured the attention of the college basketball world and once again put the Bearcats firmly in the national spotlight. A loss to Louisville in an ugly championship game put an end to the movie-script tale, but it left the Bearcats with something to prove heading into the NCAAs.

By the numbers

When you look at these two teams on paper, the match-up becomes even more intriguing. Where Texas has a statistical strength, Cincinnati does as well. Where the Bearcat numbers are weaker, those of the Longhorns are, too. With two teams so perfectly aligned to neutralize the strengths of their opponents, this game will likely come down to who can actually execute when pushed out of their comfort zone.

Despite having an offense that often stalls out, the Longhorns have been able to manufacture points by earning free throws. Texas is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line, shooting more than two free throws for every five field goal attempts. On Friday, that could be much more difficult against a Bearcat D that hardly ever sends opponents to the charity stripe. Cincinnati allows just one free throw for every four field goal attempts, one of the ten best defensive FTR marks in the country.

On the other end of the court, Texas has consistently sent its opponents to the stripe all season long. The Horns have a defensive free-throw rate just shy of 42%. Fortunately, the Bearcats are one of the 25 worst teams in D-I hoops when it comes to grinding out points at the line. With a team that makes just 64.1% of their free throws, that is probably a net positive for Coach Cronin. It’s also reassuring for the Horns, who will likely give the Bearcats many more attempts than they are used to.

The one area where the teams’ strengths and weaknesses diverge is on the glass. Cincinnati and Texas are both fantastic on the offensive end, but horrible on the defensive boards. The Longhorns are ranked 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding according to Ken Pomeroy, snagging 38.4% of their missed shots. The Bearcats aren’t too far behind, grabbing 36% of their own misses. Defensively, both teams are ranked in the bottom 100 of Division I, with the Bearcats holding a slight edge. The winner of this game will likely be the one who finds greater success turning their numerous second chances into points.

Meet the Bearcats

Like Texas, Cincinnati has a very small rotation with a thin frontcourt. The team’s main presence in the paint is Yancy Gates (No. 34), who became a household name when he landed a sucker punch on the jaw of Xavier’s Kenny Frease. He was suspended six games for his role in the melee, but came back and produced workmanlike numbers in Big East play. A stout 6’9″, 260 pounds, the senior posted five double-doubles in twenty conference games and averaged more than nine boards in Big East contests.

Thanks to Gates’ suspension, Cincinnati discovered a new offensive approach that worked wonders for the team. With just two other forwards left to play consistent minutes during the six-game suspension, Cronin and the ‘Cats went with a four-guard look. Floor spacing improved, driving lanes opened up, and the offense was immediately more efficient.

Naysayers would point to the quality of opponents on the Cincinnati schedule in mid-Decembber, but the results were hard to argue with. In the first eight games of the season — a stretch which ended with the Xavier game — the Bearcats scored just 0.99 points per possession. In the eight games that followed — which included the team’s first three Big East contests — Cincinnati put in 1.17 points per possession, and did it without their senior big man.

It wasn’t just the suspension of Gates that led to the new look for Cincinnati. Junior guard JaQuon Parker (No. 44) had missed the first seven games of the season and saw his first action in that infamous Xavier game. With Gates out of the lineup and sophomore Justin Jackson (No. 5) now the only starting forward, Parker was thrust into the starting five in only his second game of the season.

Just 6’3″, Parker is a strong 210 pounds, and he brings some added toughness to a team that is rather undersized by Big East standards. He’s the team’s second best rebounder, snagging more than five per game, and he’s strong enough to finish through contact when he drives into traffic. Parker is solid going to his left and is able to find cracks in the defense off the bounce, an absolute must-have skill in the Cincy attack.

Jackson, meanwhile, has become the team’s sixth man now that Gates is back in the starting five. He’s a long and lean 6’8″ guy with a face-up game and ridiculous athleticism. He has excellent speed in the open court, which opponents quickly realize when he swats away a fast break bucket from behind the play.

One thing currently limiting Jackson’s game is his tendency to commit needless fouls. He actually averages 5.6 whistles per 40 minutes, and is the only Bearcat who has fouled out of more than two games this season. Of course, he’s all but guaranteed that title at the team banquet, as he’s already been DQ-ed six times this year.

In the backcourt, you’ll find the only two Cincy players to start all 34 games this year, senior Dion Dixon (No. 3) and sophomore Sean Kilpatrick (No. 23). Dixon is yet another guard who can quickly drive the lane and finish at the rim, and the Bearcats find a ton of success by simply setting back picks for him on the perimeter.

Kilpatrick can also penetrate and finish, but his biggest role on the team is knocking down triples. With Parker, Dixon, and point guard Cashmere Wright (No. 1) slicing up defenses on the drive, Kilpatrick can camp out on the arc for the kick-outs. His 228 long-range attempts are the most on the team by far, and his 6-of-9 performance behind the arc was key to upsetting Syracuse in the Big East tournament semis. That was the best three-point game in quite some time for Kilpatrick, who had gone more than a month since previously cracking the 33% barrier from behind the arc.

At the point, Wright is key to making the four-out, one-in approach work. He can feel out defenses on the dribble, find the weak spots, and turn that into points or a well-timed assist. Wright has great body control inside to finish amidst the trees, but also does a great job slipping dump-offs to the big man on the block when the defense converges. His assist rate is just outside of the Top 100 nationally, as the junior logs a dime on nearly 30% of the buckets made when he’s on the court.

Those six players eat up almost 84% of the team’s minutes, so the rest of the rotation sees very little action. Freshman guard Ge’Lawn Guyn (No. 14) and Senaglese big man Cheikh Mbodj (No. 13) both average about nine minutes per game. Guyn provides some backup minutes for Wright at the point, but had just five assists in his limited Big East action. Inside, Mbodj still looks like he lacks confidence at times, despite being an All-American at the junior college level

Keys to the game

It’s the biggest game of the year for the Longhorns, so we’re expanding from the typical trio of game keys to an entire list. Texas doesn’t need to do all of these things to win, but these are the most important things for the Horns to keep in mind when facing the Bearcats.

1) Deny dribble penetration – The Cincinnati offense is predicated on penetration from the guards, leading to layups at the rim, dump-offs to the bigs, or kick-outs for three. The Bearcats do not shoot very well from the field, with a two-point field-goal percentage that is in the bottom half of Division I hoops. Texas needs to close off the driving lanes and turn back the penetration, forcing Cincinnati to beat them with the jumper.

2) Rotate quickly in help situations – With a backcourt as quick and talented as Cincinnati’s, that goal of denying dribble penetration is easier said than done. There are going to be possessions where the Bearcat guards get past the Texas perimeter defense, and the rest of the Longhorns need to be ready to react. Cincinnati loves setting those back picks on the wings for their guards, so the help defense has to be there. Texas cannot afford to let Cincinnati drive unimpeded to the rim.

3) Limit second chances – If Texas can successfully force Cincinnati into taking jump shots, there will be quite a few misses clanging off the iron. Unfortunately for Texas, that can often work out even better for a Bearcat team that cleans up the offensive glass. The Horns are going to give up offensive boards, but need to limit second-chance points for Cincinnati. That means getting a body on Gates, Jackson, and Parker once the shot is up, and not allowing easy buckets in the scramble after long boards.

4) Make the misses count – As good as the Bearcats are at reclaiming missed shots, the Longhorns are even better. Cincinnati utilizes both man and zone defenses, but Texas should be able to do a solid job on the offensive glass against both looks. The Bearcats will have no specific box-out assignments in the zone, while Texas actually has a height advantage to exploit in man-to-man situations. The Longhorns are bound to reclaim a lot of their missed shots in this game, but they have to actually turn those into points. Fortunately, Texas did a great job of this against Missouri, so Horn fans are hoping that will carry over into this one.

5) Stay aggressive against the zone – With Texas shooting poorly from outside this season, Cincinnati will probably stick with their zone for much of today’s ballgame. Unfortunately, the Horns have had some rough, futile stretches in games where they have faced that type of defense. During the painful sets, players stand around, cuts are lackadaisical, no one flashes to the middle, and guards don’t try to collapse the defense with penetration. When the Longhorns actually execute — like they did against Baylor in the first half of their game in Waco — the youngsters can easily slice up a zone. The rub is that they have to be willing to play intelligently and do all of those little things to score against Cincinnati today.

6) Shake things up – Cincinnati hardly ever turns the ball over, but when they do, it’s typically in the open court. DePaul and Marquette were both able to rattle the Bearcats in transition, and that led to easy points. Sometimes that was the result of poking the ball away in the open court, but often the miscues happened just because Cincy guards weren’t comfortable at that pace. The Bearcats are excellent at controlling the ball in their half-court sets, and are very tough to beat at their preferred tempo. Texas isn’t exactly a run-and-gun team, but the Horns might want to consider mixing in some pressure to force some mistakes and get a few easy points.

After an up-and-down season in which the Longhorns lived on the bubble for the final few weeks of play, Rick Barnes continued his perfect mark on the Forty Acres, earning his 14th NCAA tournament bid in his 14th season as Texas’ head coach. The Longhorns’ streak is tied for fourth-longest among active streaks with Gonzaga and Wisconsin, and falls behind only Kansas (23 consecutive appearances), Duke (17), and Michigan State (15).

Although Barnes and the NCAA tournament have become synonymous over the last decade and a half, this year’s bid wasn’t a sure thing until the final days. Texas needed a comeback victory over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals, and benefited from numerous losses by bubble teams across the country. The Longhorns also managed to narrowly avoid the First Four games in Dayton, making the field just one slot ahead of the “Last Four In.”

Texas will open play against Cincinnati in Nashville on Friday morning at 11:15 CT. Although the Bearcats were runners-up in last weekend’s Big East tournament, they grabbed even more headlines in early December with their infamous “Crosstown Brawl” with rival Xavier. Four players were suspended for six games as a result of their participation in the melee, most notably senior big man Yancy Gates. Rather than folding, the Bearcats seemed to gather strength from the ugly incident. Mick Cronin led his team to a 12-6 mark in the tough Big East, putting the Bearcats in a three-way tie for fourth.

In the Big East Tournament, Cincinnati survived a thrilling double-overtime battle with Georgetown, the team’s second win over the Hoyas this season. A night later, the Bearcats became just the second team to knock off Syracuse this year, and the first to do it with Fab Melo on the court. Sean Kilpatrick led a three-point barrage for Cincinnati, which hit eight of its first 10 long-range looks. After building a lead as large as 17 points, the Bearcats were able to withstand a late rally by the Orange and advance to the Big East tournament finals.

The hot shooting of the semifinals would be short-lived for Cincinnati, which missed 11 of its first 12 shots against Louisville in the championship game. The ‘Cats would recover to finish 39.2% from the field, but sank just three of 14 from behind the arc. Cincinnati’s 0.746 points per possession were the fewest for the team all season long, much worse than the team’s previous season low of 0.803, posted against Xavier.

Ken Pomeroy gives Texas a 52% chance to knock off the Bearcats, predicting a one-point margin of victory. If the Longhorns do in fact earn a victory in the Round of 64, they would advance to face either Florida State or St. Bonaventure on Sunday.

It now appears most likely that Texas will be an 11-seed in the NCAA field, but with teams being moved up and down one line to accommodate bracketing rules, we could see the Longhorns as high as 10th or as low as 12th. Perhaps most importantly, it seems like Texas has played its way right past the First Four in Dayton, giving a young and thin roster a little more rest before playing on Thursday or Friday.

Of course, it’s been a crazy year, and the profiles at the bottom all start to look the same after a few minutes of staring at them. The committee could come out of left field and leave a team out that most have thought was safe all along. But when you compare Texas’ four RPI Top 50 wins to other bubble teams, it would be hard to find enough teams that could reasonably be included before the Longhorns.

With that in mind, we’re taking a look at where the Longhorns might end up. What’s important to remember when looking at potential landing spots is that the top four seeds are geographically protected as much as possible, while teams from the same conference can’t be put in the same pod. If Texas is an 11-seed or 12-seed, they will end up in a pod with the 3/14 and 6/11 games or a pod with the 4/13 and 5/12 games.

What all that means is that the Longhorns won’t be making any hotel reservations in Omaha. Missouri and Kansas will be protected seeds and should both land in Nebraska for their second and third round action, ruling that out as a destination for Texas. It also most likely eliminates Greensboro, as Duke and North Carolina should be the protected seeds for that site, and both look to be on the top two seed lines. Unless Texas is slid up to a 10-seed, they wouldn’t be able to play in the Greensboro pods.

The other teams that should be on the top two seed lines are Syracuse, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan State. The Buckeyes aren’t allowed to play in the Columbus pods, so their most likely destination is Pittsburgh. That’s certainly where Syracuse will end up, so we can scratch the Steel City off of the list of possible Texas destinations, as well. Kentucky will take up one of the two Louisville pods, while Michigan State should get sent to Columbus.

The only other pod that we can safely eliminate from consideration at this point is one of the two in Albuquerque. Baylor is likely destined for a 3-seed, and although Albuquerque is only about 50 miles closer to Waco than Nashville, there are certainly more top seeds in the eastern half of the U.S. Somebody has to go to the Albuquerque and Portland pods, so it just makes the most sense to put Baylor there.

What we’re left with, then, are seven possible pods for the Longhorns: Two in Portland, two in Nashville, one in Albuquerque, one in Columbus, and one in Louisville. Of course, all of this deduction is thrown out the window if the committee surprises us and puts Texas on the 10-seed line.

Yesterday proved fairly uneventful on the bubble, although Colorado’s late-night upset of Cal in the Pac-12 semifinals could lead to one case of bid larceny on the West Coast. Elsewhere, in that dangerous land on the wrong side of the cutline, a few bubble teams kept their hopes alive, as Marshall and Ole Miss grabbed wins in games they couldn’t afford to lose. N.C. State earned a big win as well, but is still probably right in the danger zone. If the Wolfpack wants to feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, a win today would likely erase all doubt.

Marshall vs. Memphis (10:30 A.M. CT, CBS)
This game is already at half on CBS, and the Tigers are continuing their impressive march through the C-USA tournament. The Thundering Herd has a profile that’s certainly worthy of bubble consideration, but would probably still be on the wrong side of things if the bracket were released today.

Marshall is currently 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 and has an impressive 19th-ranked SOS, but one troubling loss to East Carolina taints the résumé. The Herd might still squeak into the field with a loss to the Tigers, but Memphis is in the Big Dance no matter what. Bubble Nation is definitely hoping that Memphis maintains their lead for another 20 minutes.

North Carolina State vs. North Carolina (12 P.M. CT, ESPN)
The Wolfpack is right on the razor’s edge entering today’s play, and the arguments for and against Mark Gottfried’s bunch are both compelling. The Pack is 2-8 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-9 against the Top 100, but all victories came against teams ranked 45th or worse in today’s Daily RPI update. The easiest way for N.C. State to get into the tournament is to earn it with a win over the Heels today. Fans of other bubble teams will be hoping that John Henson is ready to go and that UNC can keep the Wolfpack sweating in the at-large pool.

Xavier vs. Saint Louis (2:30 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
Xavier might have punched its dance ticket with a win over fellow bubbler Dayton in last night’s A-10 quarters, but a win over the Billikens would probably clinch things. With two possible bid thieves in the other A-10 semifinal, Bubble Nation is hoping that the winner of this game can also win the league title tomorrow. Those bubblers who need even more help would prefer that Saint Louis is the team to shut out the bid thieves.

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (2:30 P.M. CT, ABC)
Ole Miss is one of those fringe bubble teams that could use some extra help, but the Rebels still have the opportunity to earn a bid themselves. Mississippi is currently just 1-6 against the RPI Top 50, but 6-11 against the Top 100. They’ll have a shot at another quality win today when they face Vandy, which is currently ranked 29th in the RPI. The Rebs would also get a shot at either Kentucky or Florida if they can get past the Commodores, although at that point, a win would equal an auto-bid. Bubble teams will be firmly in Vanderbilt’s corner this afternoon.

Colorado vs. Arizona (5 P.M. CT, CBS)
This game has no real impact on the bubble, as the Pac-12 is required to get at least one bid. (Trust us. We checked the bylaws.) Of course, now the committee has the difficult decision of what other teams are worthy of a bid in this putrid conference. California has been considered the most likely candidate all season long, but their fade down the stretch makes things more complicated. Would the committee leave out regular-season champ Washington for a Cal team that finished second and lost in the tournament semis? Does that mean that the Pac-12 actually ends up stumbling into a three-bid scenario? Trying to sort out this conference’s outlook only gives us a raging headache, so one can only imagine what is happening in the Selection Committee’s war room.

As for the minor bubble implications of this game, Arizona has a marginal edge on Colorado when it comes to at-large profile, so bubble fans should be pulling for the ‘Cats. It’s incredibly unlikely that either team will earn an at-large, but Arizona does have slightly better odds. (Cue Lloyd Christmas.) At this point, even those fractions of a percentage point matter to Bubble Nation.

Long Beach State vs. UC Santa Barbara (9 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
The 49ers reached the Big West title game despite a sluggish start against UC-Irvine in last night’s semifinal. Long Beach would be a very interesting test case for the committee if they were to fall short in the league title game. A loss here would leave the 49ers with a 1-6 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 2-7 record against the Top 100. With an ugly 150+ RPI loss against Cal State Fullerton, would that be enough to get LBSU into the tournament? Other bubble teams don’t want to find out, so they are pulling for the 49ers to win the auto-bid and preempt the debate.

All week, the buzz in Kansas City surrounded the impending final game of the famous Border War, a rare third meeting between Kansas and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This time, it would be for more than just bragging rights, with the possible prize being a favorable NCAA path through the St. Louis regional. Unfortunately, the Jayhawks didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, falling short against Baylor in the first semifinal on Friday night.

Although Missouri was denied the chance to face their rivals one last time, it didn’t seem to affect their motivation. The Tigers looked like a well-oiled machine against the Longhorns in the second semifinal of the night, coasting to an 81-67 win behind 23 points each from Kim English and Flip Pressey.

What looked good

The best offense for Texas on Friday night was the putback, as the Horns dominated the second-chance scoring department by a 22-11 count. Texas missed numerous short-range shots, but strong play inside led to gobs of offensive rebounds and extended possessions. The Horns posted an offensive rebounding mark of 50%, their third-best output of the year, and best since a February 4th win over Texas Tech.

Jonathan Holmes, Jaylen Bond, and Clint Chapman were the workhorses on the glass, combining to grab 35% of the offensive rebounding opportunities by themselves. Holmes racked up the putbacks, chalking up 11 points as a result. Bond missed some easy looks inside and finished with just four points, but his tenacity on the glass was huge. Chapman, meanwhile, seemed to always come up with key tip-ins when shots rimmed out.

The Horns also had some flashes of brilliance on the offensive end from Sheldon McClellan. It only happened on a few possessions, but when he took the defender baseline, the Tigers couldn’t keep him in front of them. He finished the night with 10 points in 30 minutes off the bench.

There aren’t many games left in this season, but the key to McClellan’s growth will be whether or not he becomes more aggressive and assertive. This team needs more players pressuring the defense, and he has the skillset to do it. Wherever the Horns head next week for postseason play, they will need McClellan to help Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown by attacking the defense with the bounce.

Brown posted 21 points against the Tigers with yet another strong second half, although he gave Texas fans a huge scare in the process. J’Covan made a layup with 16:27 to go that pulled the Horns to within four points, but fell into the row of photographers on the baseline and slammed his head into a camera. Brown was on the floor for what felt like an eternity, but ended up missing only about two minutes of game time. He was still aggressive following his return, scoring 12 of his points after the injury.

Kabongo’s performance was a mixed bag, but he seemed to get better as the game went on. He finished with five assists to just one turnover, but he seemed frazzled by the Missouri defense as the Tigers put on a run in the middle of the first half. After that bad stretch, he played a much more controlled game at the point, and the Longhorns tightened up their ball control.

What needed work

The big problem for Myck on Friday night was an inability to finish inside. That’s been a sticking point for the guard all season long, and quite frankly is the main reason we feel he’d benefit from another year at Texas. Kabongo needs to add some strength to finish through contact, instead of having to try — and usually miss — acrobatic shots through traffic.

As for those turnovers, it felt like a repeat of the game between the two teams in Columbia. Texas coughed it up six times in the first 12 minutes of last night’s game, including four times in a 2:42 stretch. During that brief span, Missouri expanded their lead from two points all the way out to 10, and kept the Longhorns at arm’s reach for the rest of the half. As we mentioned, Texas did a much better job controlling the ball after that disastrous stretch, but the team has very little margin for error against elite teams like Missouri. Every possession has to count if Texas wants to grind out wins against better competition.

On the other end of the court, the Texas defense really struggled. There were a few possessions early in the game where the Horns denied dribble penetration and forced Ricardo Ratliffe off the block, but otherwise the Tigers put on a clinic. Early on, the Longhorns went under the screens for Flip Pressey, a repeat of the deadly mistake they made in Columbia. Once again, the sophomore made Texas pay, drilling three early threes as part of his 23-point night.

The Longhorns also consistently failed to deny penetration, to stop the ball in transition, and to rotate quickly. The poor rotation allowed Missouri to kill them with crisp ball movement all around the court. The Texas defense was always a few seconds behind the ball and the play, leading to tons of open looks for the great Tiger shooters. As a result, they finished 45.5% from behind the arc and posted a 52.6% mark from the field.

In tempo-free terms, Mizzou scored 1.288 points per possession, the second-worst defensive performance for Texas all year. The worst came when the two teams met in Columbia, where the Tigers posted an offensive efficiency mark of 1.306 PPP.

The big picture

Fortunately, it appears that Texas did enough in beating Iowa State on Friday night to make their 14th-consecutive NCAA tournament. Barring any major bid thievery in the next 30 hours, Texas should be safely in the field and could possibly even avoid the First Four in Dayton. While a win over Missouri would have sewn up a bid and eliminated any of the drama from Selection Sunday, Texas at least was able to avoid a demoralizing blowout that could have raised questions about their tournament-worthiness.

Next up: NCAA Bracket Unveiling; Sunday, 5 P.M. CT, CBS

The Texas Longhorns earned their biggest win of the season last night, dispatching Iowa State in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Championship. The win, combined with numerous losses by other bubble teams, seems to have the Longhorns safely in the NCAA field for now. Tonight’s third tussle with Missouri offers Texas a chance to completely lock up that dance ticket, as a win would give the Horns five against RPI Top 50 opponents. Fortunately, the Horns still look to be in good shape for the NCAAs with a loss in tonight’s game, as long as it remains competitive.

Meet the Tigers

For an in-depth look at the Missouri roster and their style of play, check out LRT’s preview of the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

Missouri knocked off Texas by an 84-73 count when the teams met at Mizzou Arena on January 14th. Read LRT’s recap of the game for a full breakdown.

The second meeting

When the two schools met in Austin on January 30th, the final few minutes offered nail-biting excitement. The Longhorns erased a 10-point deficit in less than four minutes and even took a lead in the final seconds. Michael Dixon was the hero for the Tigers, though, putting in an impressive game-winning shot with 31 seconds to go. For a full recap of the action in that game, click here for the LRT post-game.

Keys to the game

1) Limit the turnovers – The Longhorns made things difficult in both games against Missouri by wasting first-half possessions. In the first meeting, Texas coughed it up on 22% of their possessions, with two frustrating ones coming during a first-half Mizzou rally that built the lead to double-digits. When the teams met again in Austin, the Horns ended nearly a quarter of their first-half possessions with turnovers. There is little margin for error if Texas wants an upset tonight, so they will have to exhibit the same kind of ball control they had in the win over Iowa State last night.

2) Get a big game from the bigs – Texas will once again be without Alexis Wangmene, who had surgery on his wrist earlier this week. Fortunately, the Tigers typically run a four-out, one-in look, so that hole in the frontcourt won’t be as big of an issue as it could be. Texas needs Clint Chapman to avoid fouls and give another warrior performance like he did against Iowa State. Jonathan Holmes averaged eight boards and 23 minutes in his two games against Missouri, so Texas will be looking for similar output from the freshman tonight.

3) Limit dribble penetration – In the first game, it was Flip Pressey that dissected the Texas defense. In the second, it was Dixon who repeatedly shook J’Covan Brown and lit up the scoreboard. Missouri is great at penetrating with the bounce and getting easy looks for Ricardo Ratliffe or open threes for their dead-eye shooters. When teams take away that penetration — and it’s extraordinarily tough to do against Missouri — the Tiger offense no longer looks unstoppable. If the Longhorns can limit the damage done by the drivers, they should be able to hang tough and challenge the Tigers.

Washington, the Pac-12 regular season champion, went down to Oregon State in the quarterfinals of the league tournament. As we discussed in yesterday’s Burnt Orange Bubble Watch, this year’s Pac-12 has the profile of a middle-tier mid-major conference. If Cal were to win the league tournament, it wouldn’t be a stretch to give the Pac-12 only one bid. With their loss to the Beavers, the Huskies will now certainly be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Texas found additional help in the Big 10 tournament, where Minnesota knocked off Northwestern in overtime. The Wildcats have never made an NCAA tournament, despite being incredibly close over the last few years. This season looks like another round of the same sad story, as the loss gives Northwestern a 1-10 record against the RPI Top 50 and a 5-12 mark against the RPI Top 100. Even in a season with an incredibly soft bubble, that profile just doesn’t pass the smell test.

While the Longhorns were taking care of Iowa State in the nightcap, Mississippi State was completing an epic choke job in New Orleans. The Bulldogs had lost five straight in late February before righting the ship with two wins to wrap up the regular season. While they were definitely sliding down the S-curve, the team was still safely in the field and just needed a win or two in the SEC tournament to feel more confident. Instead, Mississippi State lost to a pretty terrible Georgia team, and now must wait for the verdict on Selection Sunday.

As the calendar turned to Friday on the East Coast, Oregon was also laying an egg of their own in the Pac-12 tournament. A last-second three-pointer was off the mark from Devoe Joseph — brother of former Horn Cory Joseph — and the Ducks lost to Colorado in the quarterfinals. Oregon had slowly climbed into the bubble picture over the last two weeks, but now look to have already removed themselves from consideration. The Ducks finished the season with an 0-5 mark against the RPI Top 50 and went 5-8 against the Top 100.

Although Texas might be safely in the field at this point, a little more mayhem on the bubble would only solidify the team’s standing. Here’s a rundown of the important games today:

N.C. State vs. Virginia (1 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
The Wolfpack took care of business against Boston College on Thursday, setting up a big-win opportunity against Virginia this afternoon. N.C. State currently has three RPI Top 50 wins (Texas, Miami twice) and five against the RPI Top 100. With so many losses elsewhere on the bubble, a victory over the Cavaliers could be enough to squeak the Wolfpack into the field. A loss, on the other hand, would likely send them to the NIT.

St. Joseph’s vs. St. Bonaventure (1:30 P.M. CT, syndicated in A-10 markets)
The Hawks won their opening-round match-up against Charlotte on Tuesday, and have enjoyed watching the bubble meltdowns as they waited for today’s A-10 quarterfinals. St. Joe’s is 4-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 6-9 against the Top 100. Losses to American and Richmond are ugly stains on an otherwise-good profile, so the Hawks will need to pick up some big wins in Atlantic City this weekend. A victory here could give them an opportunity to log another signature win against Temple in the A-10 semis.

Central Florida vs. Memphis (5:30 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
The Golden Knights are still a fringe bubble team at best, but now find themselves two wins away from an NCAA tournament berth. An upset win over Memphis this evening would give UCF a 3-5 mark against the RPI Top 50 and push them to 4-6 against the Top 100. That isn’t overly impressive, but might be enough to get them involved in some discussions. For fans of other bubble teams, the thought of UCF possibly winning the C-USA auto-bid is also cause for concern. If a team that is barely in the bubble discussion wins a conference tourney, you can be sure that another bubble squad is getting squeezed out.

Tennessee vs. Ole Miss (6:30 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/ESPN3)
The Volunteers have been waiting for their SEC quarterfinal all week, licking their chops as other NCAA contenders have stumbled down the stretch. The Vols are 4-7 against the RPI Top 50, 7-10 against the Top 100, and have been a completely different team since adding Jarnell Stokes on January 14th. Tennessee is 10-5 since the freshman made his debut against Kentucky, and the team is riding a four-game winning streak heading into the SEC tourney. The Selection Committee considers injuries and suspensions when debating a team’s profile, so the Volunteers could likely punch their NCAA ticket with a win or two in New Orleans this weekend.

Miami vs. Florida State (8 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
Like fellow ACC bubbler N.C. State, Miami simply earned the win it had to have in yesterday’s first-round action, knocking off Georgia Tech in an ugly game. The Hurricanes are one of Lunardi’s First Four Out, but have just a 2-7 mark against the RPI Top 50 and are 3-10 against the Top 100. Their road win against Duke is definitely one to hang their hats on, but the lack of total quality wins could hurt in head-to-head comparisons. Win this one against the Seminoles, and the Hurricanes should get a shot at a second big win over Duke.

Arizona vs. Oregon State (8 P.M. CT, FSN)
Arizona shouldn’t be in consideration for an NCAA bid at this point, but it’s been that kind of year on the bubble. Of course, the Wildcats could end all speculation and simply win their next two games to earn the league’s auto-bid to the NCAA tournament. The ‘Cats are only 1-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 5-8 against the Top 100, with two of those wins coming against teams ranked in the upper nineties (Stanford at No. 95, Valparaiso at No. 99). Fans of bubble teams should be pulling for another Oregon State upset and a Cal victory in the finale.

Xavier vs. Dayton (8:00 P.M. CT, syndicated in A-10 markets)
In what could amount to a bubble elimination game, A-10 rivals Xavier and Dayton will put their seasons on the line in Atlantic City. The Flyers have a very interesting profile, as they own four RPI Top 50 wins, but also have a pair of head-scratching losses to Miami of Ohio and Rhode Island. Xavier, meanwhile, has just two Top 50 wins, but seven against the Top 100. A win in this game won’t guarantee anything for either team, but the loser can likely shelve those NCAA dreams.

Colorado State vs. San Diego State (8:00 P.M. CT, CBS Sports)
Colorado State is in a similar situation to Texas, albeit a slightly better one. The Rams had three RPI Top 50 wins against the Mountain West’s best teams, but all came at home. A road win against Air Force in the season finale and a neutral-site win against TCU yesterday have served to bolster the road/neutral record, while losses around the country have only solidified Colorado State’s standing. At this point, it’s hard to find enough teams with profiles good enough to justify leaving CSU out. Of course, a win over the Aztecs in tonight’s semifinal would certainly lock things up.

Long Beach State vs. Cal-Irvine (8:30 P.M. CT, ESPNU in Big 12 Network markets)
Bubble fans across the country are rooting hard for LBSU this week, as the 49ers would be an interesting at-large candidate if they fall short in the Big West tournament. Thanks to the Big West’s re-seeding of teams in the conference tournament, that outcome is incredibly unlikely. Tonight, the 49ers are facing the league’s 7-seed in Cal-Irvine, just a day after dispatching of 8-seed UC-Davis.

Long Beach State was considered an NCAA lock for much of the season, but an inexplicable loss to Cal State Fullerton in the season finale has muddied the picture. The 49ers have just one RPI Top 50 win, which came against Xavier. A loss by the Musketeers in the A-10 quarters could knock them right out of that group, however, which would leave LBSU with zero Top 50 wins on the profile. It doesn’t look like the 49ers could absorb a Big West tourney loss and still make the field, but other bubble teams don’t want to have to test this theory. Bubble Nation is firmly in LBSU’s corner this weekend.

Colorado vs. Cal (10:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
As mentioned above, fans of bubble teams need Cal to win the Pac-12 tournament. If that happens, the Pac-12 could be limited to just one bid on Selection Sunday, opening the door for other at-large candidates.

The Longhorns are up against the proverbial wall as they open Big 12 tournament play tonight. Texas is squarely on the bubble in nearly every bracket projection you can find, so a loss to Iowa State in tonight’s game will almost certainly end any hopes of an NCAA bid. A victory would give Texas four wins against the RPI Top 50, a key metric used by the Selection Committee, and would likely earn them a shot at another quality win against Missouri in the semifinals tomorrow.

The Cyclones and Longhorns split their pair of meetings this season, with each team defending home court. Now that the two teams are squaring off on a neutral floor, it’s apparent just how evenly matched they are. Ken Pomeroy gives Texas a 51% chance to come up with the big win tonight, predicting just a one-point margin of victory.

Meet the Cyclones

For a full look at the Iowa State roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The Wangmene effect

The biggest difference in tonight’s third round of ISU/Texas is the sudden absence of big man Alexis Wangmene. While he only averaged 15 minutes in the two games against Iowa State this year, Wangmene’s wrist injury means that the Longhorns now have an even thinner frontcourt rotation, and even less size.

For the Longhorns, that means Rick Barnes will have to get creative with the lineup. The easiest solution would seem to be going with a smaller starting five and leaving Clint Chapman as the sole post presence. This would also get Sheldon McClellan into the starting lineup without having to take out Julien Lewis. McClellan brings extra offense to the table and can really get the offense moving when he’s aggressive. Lewis, meanwhile, provides quality defense on the perimeter and is usually good for a few “take and makes” each game.

The alternative would be to slide Jonathan Holmes right into Wangmene’s spot and keep size on the frontline. The danger in this approach is that Chapman has a tendency to get in foul trouble, and the only other frontcourt player left is undersized Jaylen Bond. Iowa State also makes this approach difficult, because the typical strategy to protect your bigs from foul trouble is a zone defense. The Cyclones are absolutely deadly from long range, so Texas would be taking a monumental risk by using a zone.

Fortunately, a four-out, one-in look matches up very well with Iowa State. It brings more athleticism and quickness to the court, which is key in trying to keep the quick Cyclone players from penetrating with the bounce. In addition, Chapman has actually been very successful against Iowa State this season, as the Longhorns made a concerted effort to get him touches right away in both games. As long as the big man can avoid foul trouble, the Longhorns might be able to survive against Iowa State without Wangmene.

Keys to the game

1) Keep Chapman on the floor- With that being said, it’s fairly obvious that the biggest concern for Texas is keeping Chapman on the court. Royce White was saddled with early foul trouble when the teams played in Ames, but posted a monster 15/15 double-double when he played 35 minutes in Austin. Chapman will be key to stopping the Iowa State superstar, and will also be needed to score easy points inside against an undersized Cyclone squad.

2) Limit the damage from deep- If you want to quickly find the biggest difference between the two Iowa State/Texas games, look no further than the three-point percentages. Iowa State was 10-of-21 in their win over Texas — including a ridiculous 9-of-12 in the first half — and just 5-of-21 in their loss. The Cyclone roster is filled with players who are deadly from long range, so the Longhorns must be vigilant on the perimeter and make sure those long looks are challenged.

3) Stop White in transition- On multiple occasions in both games, Royce White simply brought the ball all the way up the court and was halfway down the lane before a Texas defender challenged him. The Longhorns must stop the ball and cannot allow the big man to score his points so easily. In addition to giving Iowa State easy looks, that poor defense also led to unnecessary fouls when the defense reacted so late. With an even thinner frontcourt this time around, Texas simply cannot afford to let White drive the lane with impunity.

4) Be aggressive with the ball- As Texas fans know all too well, the Longhorn offense has a terrible tendency to go stagnant. When opponents double through ball screens, the Longhorn guards typically retreat instead of attacking. When defenders fight through staggered baseline screens set for the Texas shooters, the guards usually just dribble the air out of the ball at the top of the key.

The Longhorns have athletic guys who can put the ball on the floor and create looks, so they need to use those skills tonight. McClellan, Lewis, J’Covan Brown, and Myck Kabongo must attack with the dribble and get things moving. Iowa State’s defense has proven to be susceptible to dribble penetration, so Texas has to exploit that.

Last night, Seton Hall took one of those losses, falling to Louisville in the second round of the Big East tourney. As a result, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi slid the Pirates out of the bracket and moved the Horns into the final at-large slot in his late-night update. Seton Hall now must wait until Selection Sunday to find out their fate, but with a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 50 and an additional three wins against those slotted 51st through 100th, the Pirates seem to have a solid résumé, especially compared to other bubblers.

Even though the Pirates are done with Championship Week, there will still be many Longhorn fans with their eyes glued to the scoreboard. Here’s a quick rundown of the games most important to Texas fans:

Illinois vs. Iowa (10:30 A.M. CT, BTN)
The Illini finished the season with 11 losses in their last 13 games and are essentially in a bubble coma at this point. Iowa’s profile is certainly not worth of an at-large look, either. But, both of these teams have pulled off some victories against the top teams in the Big 10, and either one could make a run in Indianapolis this weekend. While neither Illinois or Iowa should be in the at-large picture at this point, they both have the pieces to possibly put together a troubling bid-thief campaign.

N.C. State vs. Boston College (1 P.M. CT, ESPNU)
The Wolfpack is still on the wrong side of the bubble at this point, with an ugly 0-8 record against the RPI Top 50 counting heavily against them. A win against Boston College does nothing to help their résumé, but does move the Pack into a quarterfinal match-up with Virginia. N.C. State might need three wins in Atlanta to be able to make the field, so Mark Gottfried and Co. need to take care of business against the ACC’s worst team this afternoon.

Washington vs. Oregon State (2 P.M. CT, FSN)
At this point, the Pac-12′s bubble picture is best described as a hot mess. As has been pointed out numerous times, most often by SI’s Andy Glockner, the league has a profile that is much more befitting a mid-major conference. The Pac-12 had just two victories in non-conference games against the RPI Top 50, with the best win coming against a Colorado State team that is on the bubble itself. (The other was Oregon State over Texas, and the Longhorns are right on the Top 50 cutline at the moment.) Ken Pomeroy ranks the Pac-12 as the ninth-best conference, behind the likes of the MWC, A-10, and MVC. With those kind of numbers, is the league really worth three bids, or even two? The Huskies have one extra chip in their stack thanks to the regular-season title, but at this point, all that guarantees them is a bid to the NIT. A loss to Oregon State this afternoon would be absolutely crippling for UW.

Arizona vs. UCLA (4:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
Like Washington, Arizona has a résumé that is incredibly thin. Unfortunately, the Pac-12 provides little in the way of quality win opportunities, instead posing as a minefield that can blow up at-large chances for the league’s top teams. That is especially true for the Wildcats, who will be without the services of point guard Josiah Turner after he was suspended indefinitely on Wednesday. UCLA could easily knock off Arizona in this one, which would essentially put the kibosh on any NCAA hopes in Tucson.

Northwestern vs. Minnesota (4:30 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
If Texas fans thought that they Longhorns had a heartbreaking season, they would hate to be fans of the Wildcats. Northwestern, which has famously never made the NCAA tournament, posted a brutal 1-10 record against the RPI Top 50 during the regular season. Two of those losses came in overtime to Michigan, while another three of their Top 50 losses were by a combined nine points. Like many of the teams in action today, Northwestern won’t be punching a ticket with a win over Minnesota, but simply cannot afford a loss. If the Wildcats can get past the Golden Gophers, a third crack at Michigan would come in tomorrow’s quarterfinals.

Mississippi State vs. Georgia (9 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Mississippi State went on a late season slide, losing five straight in late February before closing out the year with a pair of wins to finish at .500 in SEC play. The Bulldogs have an 8-4 record against the RPI Top 100, but more than half of those wins have come against teams that fall in the 51-100 range. A loss to Georgia might not knock Mississippi State out of the NCAAs, but it would certainly make for a very nervous Selection Sunday in Starkville.

Colorado State vs. TCU (4:30 P.M. CT, The Mtn)
Fort Collins proved to be the toughest place to play in the Mountain West this year, as the Rams defended their home court against the league’s big three: UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego State. Unfortunately, the MWC tournament doesn’t take place down the road from the New Belgium Brewing Co., so the Rams could be vulnerable to an ugly upset against TCU in Las Vegas. It would appear that Colorado State is safely in the field at this point, but a loss to the Horned Frogs could shove the Rams right back into the bubble discussion.

Oregon vs. Colorado (10:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
Like Arizona and Washington, Oregon is desperately seeking a second or third NCAA bid for the Pac-12. Unlike the Wildcats and Huskies, however, the Ducks are currently on the wrong side of the bubble in most tournament projections. Oregon has to take care of business against the Buffaloes, who they split the season series with. A loss would almost certainly guarantee a trip to the NIT.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech (8 P.M. CT, ESPNU)
You may be noticing a pattern at this point, so perhaps you’ll be able to guess the next sentence before you read it. Miami can’t seal a bid with a win over Georgia Tech tonight, but they can certainly cripple their NCAA hopes with a loss. The Yellow Jackets are currently 188th in the RPI and would provide absolutely no boost to the Hurricane résumé, but would tarnish it with an ACC tourney upset. Miami is currently 2-7 against the RPI Top 50, with wins coming at Duke and at home against Florida State. A victory over Georgia Tech would give the ‘Canes a chance for a second win over the Seminoles in tomorrow’s quarterfinals.

South Florida vs. Notre Dame (8 P.M. CT, ESPN)
The Bulls got past Villanova in a must-win game last night, and now can solidify their NCAA profile with a win over Notre Dame tonight. South Florida is only 1-9 against the RPI Top 50, but is 6-9 against the Top 100. In a weak bubble year, perhaps getting fat on wins against the lower half of the Top 100 will be enough for the Bulls to get into the NCAAs. If they don’t want to test that theory, they will have to knock off Notre Dame tonight.

Central Florida vs. UAB (9:00 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
The Golden Knights are on the periphery of the bubble discussion, but could push their way back into consideration with a good run in the C-USA tournament. With only three RPI Top 100 wins under their belt, UCF needs to take care of the Blazers tonight and hope for a big win over Memphis in the semis.

Wyoming vs. UNLV (10:30 P.M. CT, The Mtn)
While it’s not likely that the Mountain West earns five bids to the NCAAs this year, the Cowboys could still make a case with some quality wins in the MWC tourney. The 18-10 record against D-I opponents isn’t stellar, but it does include two wins against the RPI Top 25, with UNLV providing an opportunity for a third tonight. Unfortunately, the MWC tournament is played on UNLV’s home court, where the Cowboys just lost to the Rebels on Saturday.