If there’s one thing the Longhorns can be thankful for this season, it’s that the Big 12 schedule-makers seem to have a bit of compassion. For the second time this year, Texas will get a chance to bounce back from an uninspired, embarrassing defeat by playing the worst team in the Big 12.

On February 2nd, the Longhorns blew out TCU by a 60-43 count, just four days after being waxed by 26 in Manhattan by Kansas State. Tonight, the Longhorns are looking for another bounce-back win against that same TCU team, three days after getting smoked at Kansas, again by 26 points.

For Texas, any and all NCAA hopes now rest on a miraculous run through the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. In most years, that would mean that the Longhorns would want to position themselves on the bottom half of the bracket, avoiding top-seed Kansas and the huge home-court advantage they have at the Sprint Center. This season, the Jayhawks are in a virtual three-way tie for first — Kansas State has a half-game edge — with six games left to play.

With such a contentious battle waging at the top of the league, it’s far too early to tell if Texas would benefit more from being the 7-seed or the 8-seed. About the only thing that is clear about the bracket at this point is that Texas is practically guaranteed to be playing on the tournament’s opening night, necessitating a four-wins-in-four-days run to reach the NCAAs. The Longhorns are currently five games behind the three teams tied for fourth through sixth, meaning that even if Texas ran the table, Iowa State, Baylor, or Oklahoma would have to go 1-5 down the stretch just to fall into a sixth-place tie with the Horns.

Of course, there’s always the NIT. In 2006, the rule was removed that required teams to have a .500 record to make the field, but there has yet to be a team invited with a losing record. North Carolina made the 2010 NIT with a 16-16 mark and went on to reach the championship game, where the team lost to Dayton.

If Texas were to play in the NIT, their record would have to include a loss at some point in the Big 12 tournament. That gives Texas at least 15 losses and means the Longhorns would need to go 5-1 down the stretch or win two games in Kansas City to ensure a .500 record. Needless to say, Texas cannot afford to lose to teams like TCU if it wants to avoid the CBI or a March spent on the couch.

Meet the Horned Frogs

For an in-depth look at TCU, check out LRT’s preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

Texas had to grind it out with TCU in the first game, which saw only 57 possessions on the night. Even with such a slow tempo, the Longhorns were able to build a lead as large as 19 points and won the game by a 17-point final margin. Texas used stifling defense to limit the already-anemic TCU offense to just 0.753 points per possession, while having one of its best shooting nights of the season on the other end.

One reason Texas was able to get so many good looks is that the team made it a point to work the ball inside-out against TCU. Connor Lammert cracked double-digits in points for the first time in his collegiate career, logging 10 on a perfect 5-for-5 shooting night. Since then, the freshman has continued to play with confidence, earning starts in the team’s last two games.

Ioannis Papapetrou also had a solid night against the Horned Frogs, scoring 13 points in his 34 minutes on the court. More importantly, the Greek forward snagged nine boards on a night where the Longhorns performed terribly on the glass. The Longhorns grabbed just 30 rebounds as a team, posting an ugly 26.9% mark on the offensive glass.

For TCU, the bright spots were in the frontcourt, where Connell Crossland (No. 2) continued his surge in conference play. The senior had 12 rebounds, including four on the offensive end. Fellow big man Adrick McKinney (No. 24) led TCU in the scoring department with 13, while also logging eight boards.

Since then…

The Horned Frogs pulled off the biggest upset of the year in their very next game, knocking off Kansas at home for the program’s first Big 12 victory. The TCU defense confounded the Jayhawks for most of the game, holding Kansas to just 13 points in the first half. Kansas used full-court pressure to close the gap in the second half, but TCU responded once the lead had been sliced to just four points. On the night, Kansas made less than 30% of their shots and hit only 3-of-22 from behind the arc.

Outside of that historic win, it has unfortunately been business as usual for the hapless Horned Frogs. That outstanding defensive performance against KU resulted in just 0.821 points per possession for the Jayhawks. In the three losses since that game, TCU has allowed an average of 1.184 points each time down the floor.

Point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5) has particularly struggled over the last two weeks. In the team’s last five games, he has still managed to average 10 points per game, but has been rather ineffective as a facilitator of the offense. Against Iowa State on Saturday, Anderson finally posted a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, logging eight dimes against two mistakes. But in the four games prior, which included the previous loss to Texas, the sophomore had six asissts with 11 turnovers.

Unfortunately, Anderson is being asked to shoulder far too much of the load for the Horned Frogs. He is the team’s best playmaker, and when he is unable to penetrate with the bounce, TCU’s offense often bogs down. Even against Iowa State, in a game where he finally was able to set up teammates, Anderson dragged down the offense with a 2-for-11 performance from long range. It doesn’t appear that the Horned Frogs are going to find the answers this season, but they certainly won’t be able to find much success until Anderson can put together another complete game.

Although the point guard has been struggling, the Horned Frogs have found a recent spark from Crossland, who has started every game since cracking the starting five against Texas. While he’s averaging just over 10 points per game, his biggest contribution has been on the glass. Crossland averaged 9.6 rebounds in those five starts, and now has offensive and defensive rebounding rates that are both ranked in the Top 300 nationally. Although TCU still struggles to convert their second and third chances, Crossland’s strong work on the offensive glass is at least giving a very bad offense a few more chances to score.

Keys to the game

1) Push the tempo – With Myck Kabongo back for the Longhorns, there is no reason why Texas should settle for playing at TCU’s desired pace. The Horned Frogs are hoping to limit the number of possessions and keep the score low, mitigating the advantages that Texas has on both ends of the court. If Kabongo and Texas can exploit mistakes by Anderson and look for opportunities to score in transition, it will be very tough for TCU to keep up with the Longhorns. Acquiescing to TCU’s pace will only increase the chances for an ugly road loss.

2) Close out defensive possessions – TCU reclaimed nearly 38% of their missed shots in the first meeting between these two teams, and the Horned Frogs outrebounded the Horns overall. With Crossland playing out of his mind, the struggling TCU offense is finally getting some extra chances to put the ball in the basket. Although TCU doesn’t often turn their offensive boards into extra points, Texas cannot afford to find out if tonight’s the night they flip that script. If Texas can close out their defensive possessions after one shot, it will demoralize the Horned Frogs and make it very unlikely that they can score enough to keep pace with the Horns.

3) Attack inside – The Longhorns found success in the paint against TCU during their first meeting, and they did that without the services of Jonathan Holmes, who will be on the court this time around. If Texas again makes it a point to get touches inside, the team should be able to repeat history and find some easy looks at the rim. More importantly, a commitment to attacking the paint will hopefully result in whistles on Crossland, McKinney, and Devonta Abron (No. 23). With Anderson struggling, TCU is having to rely even more on its experienced frontcourt. Tagging the TCU bigs with early foul trouble could quickly cripple their hopes for another home upset.

There is no doubt that the suits at ESPN expected a little more glitz when they booked College GameDay at Allen Fieldhouse for tonight’s tilt between Texas and Kansas. The Longhorns were expected to be part of a deep Big 12 pack this year, chasing the perennial preseason favorite Jayhawks. That was long before an NCAA committee suspended Texas guard Myck Kabongo for two-thirds of the season, and well before Kansas lost three straight games for the first time in nearly eight years.

Texas scuttled to a 2-8 start in conference play without their sophomore point guard, yet still managed to have these very Jayhawks on the ropes when they hosted them at the Erwin Center on January 19th. Although it was clear that this young Texas team could compete with the best of the Big 12, it consistently fell short in crunch time. Two days after that valiant effort against Kansas, any optimism was tempered when sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes broke his hand against Oklahoma.

On Wednesday night, the Longhorns finally welcomed back both Holmes and Kabongo against Iowa State. But thanks to foul trouble, neither one of the returning stars were even on the court when the game was decided in a second overtime. Kabongo and Holmes combined to play only 53 minutes in a game that was 50 minutes long, as freshman big man Connor Lammert put forth the best effort of his young career. Most importantly, Sheldon McClellan finally stepped up and carried the Longhorns, scoring all 10 Texas points in the decisive overtime period.

While the odds are incredibly long for a Texas win at Allen Fieldhouse tonight, there is no reason to think that the Longhorns stand no chance. Kansas has looked incredibly vulnerable this season, while the Texas offense finally started clicking when it was at full strength on Wednesday night. The 1.097 points that the Horns scored per possession was their second-best offensive performance of the season, and the fifth-best showing by an Iowa State opponent this year. The Longhorns will still have to execute incredibly well to have a shot at an upset tonight, but fans now at least have a reason to hold on to some shreds of hope.

Meet the Jayhawks

For an in-depth look at the Kansas roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

On January 19th, the Longhorns used stifling defense to keep Kansas in check during the first twenty minutes, limiting the Jayhawks to just 26 points on 28% shooting. Ben McLemore took just three shots in the first half, perhaps still struggling with the lingering effects of an ankle sprain suffered five days prior against Baylor.

The Longhorns made no effort to crash the offensive glass, but still managed to own the rebounding advantage heading to the locker room. That edge on the boards was especially surprising after Holmes picked up two fouls in the first 56 seconds of the game and spent the remainder of the half on the bench.

In the second half, Holmes made an immediate impact. He scored seven quick points that fueled a 14-4 run for Texas to open the frame, as the Longhorns took full advantage of miscues by the Jayhawks. Kansas turned it over six times in the first five minutes, after having coughed it up only four times in the entire first half.

Texas built a lead as large as 11 points in the second half, and still led by 10 with just over 11 minutes to play. But with Kansas taking better care of the basketball, the Longhorns once again found it difficult to score in a half-court game. McClellan became the only Horn who could put the ball in the basket, scoring all six of Texas’ points in a painful stretch of nearly eight minutes of offensive stagnation.

With Kansas switching to a four-guard look in the final six minutes, Naadir Tharpe took over ballhandling duties and freed up Elijah Johnson to play in his more natural role as a two-guard. The Jayhawks erased Texas’ six-point lead, holding the Horns to only two more baskets as Kansas poured on the points in crunch time. KU outscored Texas 17-4 down the stretch, moving to 4-0 in the Big 12 with a gutsy road win.

Since then…

Even with the offensive problems and the close calls against both Iowa State and Texas, Kansas maintained its steady march through the conference. Two days later, the Jayhawks went into Bramlage Coliseum and continued their dominance over in-state rival K-State. A comfortable home win over Oklahoma preceded a road win against West Virginia, where the Jayhawks again struggled to hang on to the ball and let the Mountaineers claw back late in the game. Still, Kansas was sitting at 7-0 in the league and seemed to be on its way to a ninth-straight Big 12 title.

But that’s when things started to unravel for the Jayhawks. The issues that had concerned Coach Self and the Kansas fanbase finally became big enough to result in losses. Early turnovers allowed Oklahoma State to build a big lead at Allen Fieldhouse, and the Cowboys ultimately snapped KU’s 33-game home win streak. Four days later, the Kansas offense was absolutely horrid in a loss at TCU, which was 0-8 in league play at the time.

After that improbable upset, the Jayhawks were facing the possibility of their first three-game losing streak since February of 2005. After a road loss against a resurgent Oklahoma squad, that fear came to fruition for Jayhawk Nation, knocking KU out of first place and putting them a game behind hated K-State.

Monday night, the Jayhawks once again returned to top form, looking dominant from start to finish against the Wildcats. Kansas cruised to a 21-point win, pushing the team back into a three-way tie for the league lead with seven games to play.

The biggest storyline to emerge from the three-game losing streak is the controversy over the point guard role. Johnson has made questionable decisions and been responsible for some frustrating turnovers, while his shooting percentage has taken a nose dive. To add fuel to the fire, Tharpe has stepped up and shown himself to be a quality facilitator when he’s put in at the point.

In conference play, EJ has posted a turnover percentage north of 35% in six different games. His assist-to-turnover ratio has been above 1.0 in only four of the team’s 11 conference games. Meanwhile, Tharpe has put his teammates in a position to score and even took on the daunting task of guarding Rodney McGruder in Monday’s win over K-State. Tharpe had an assist rate of 50.3% in that win against KSU, and posted 43.4% and 45% in the home win over OU and the loss to Oklahoma State.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Tharpe makes things click when he is on the court, so Self and the Jayhawks now have to decide just how many minutes the sophomore guard will get. Someone has to sit on the bench to make room for the point guard, and it’s not an easy decision. The solution late in the game against Texas was to run with four guards. Unfortunately, that made Kevin Young the odd man out, with Jeff Withey obviously cemented into his role in the middle. Young provides an excellent spark for KU and is a constant hustle guy. Meanwhile, Johnson is much more comfortable when he slides off to shooting guard. If the Jayhawks are still going to make a run to Atlanta, Coach Self has to find the right lineup combination that can utilize Tharpe’s talents and still optimize the minutes he gives Johnson and Young.

Keys to the game

1) Limit transition points – In the first meeting between these two teams, the Longhorns were clearly concerned with Kansas’ ability to put up points on the run, as they completely abandoned the offensive glass in an effort to get back on D. That concern is sure to be an even bigger point of emphasis at Allen Fieldhouse, where the nation’s best home-court advantage is on display any time the Jayhawks score on the break. Visiting coaches always have to burn timeouts to kill the momentum when the KU transition game starts cranking up, so the Longhorns have to be wary of that constant threat in tonight’s game.

Still, completely conceding offensive rebounds isn’t necessarily the only approach. Oklahoma State found a lot of success on the offensive glass against KU, with many of their boards coming from 6’4″ guard Marcus Smart. If the Longhorns focus on their weak-side rebounding opportunities, it’s still possible to earn some second chance points while still having three or four players ready to stop the transition attack.

2) Push the tempo wisely – Texas was able to play at a faster pace with Kabongo at the helm on Wednesday, but the Horns must be careful with their tempo tonight. The Longhorns need to look for opportunities to push the tempo when the defense isn’t ready to stop the break, but they shouldn’t be trying to slam on the accelerator all night long.

A slower pace helps to keep the Allen Fieldhouse crowd out of the game, and it limits Kansas’ ability to put together quick scoring runs. Still, scoring in the halfcourt against the Jayhawks and their block-machine of a center is very difficult. If and when Texas can score easy points and avoid the half-court grind, it has to take advantage. The young Horns just have to be careful not to get caught up in the moment and play right into the hands of the Jayhawks.

3) Knock down perimeter looks – This key is much easier said than done for a Texas team that is dead last in the Big 12 when it comes to long-range shooting. The Horns have made only 26.2% of their threes in conference games, including an ugly 28% success rate against Iowa State on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, Kansas has the strongest interior defense in the country, limiting opponents to 38.5% shooting inside the arc. If Texas is to have any hope for a monumental upset tonight, the team will have to knock down some triples.

There is some reason for optimism, however. After shooting 28.5% from the field in the three games prior to Wednesday, Julien Lewis was much more selective against the Cyclones. He took and missed only one shot in regulation before hitting two huge three-pointers in overtime. Point guard Javan Felix showed off a great spot-up jumper from the perimeter, something fans never saw when he was on the ball for the first 23 games of the season. Add in Ioannis Papapetrou and his 38.6% mark from long range, and there’s reason to believe the Longhorns could knock down some triples. If they do, the Horns could hang with the Jayhawks until crunch time. If not, they will likely find it hard to score inside and could be in a deep hole very quickly.

February 13th has been a day circled on the calendars of Longhorn fans for the last two months. Following the initial announcement of a season-long suspension for sophomore point guard Myck Kabongo, an NCAA reinstatement committee reduced his penalty to 23 games in their ruling on December 21st. That meant that while the Longhorns would have to continue without Kabongo until that magical day of February 13th, if they could remain competitive without him, perhaps that final eight-game run could actually be meaningful.

Since that ruling, the Longhorns have gone 3-9, erasing any hopes for an NCAA at-large bid. Instead, Texas is now just hoping to avoid the first day of the Big 12 tournament, an outcome that also seems incredibly unlikely. With eight games left, the Longhorns are four games behind Iowa State and Baylor, who are tied for fifth place. Unless Kabongo can completely remake this team’s identity in the final four weeks, the Longhorns’ only hope for a 15th-consecutive NCAA bid will be to win four games in four days at the Big 12 tournament.

Kabongo will certainly make a difference for a young team that has shown an ability to compete with the league’s best teams. The question is whether or not his leadership can get the Longhorns to actually close out their big wins, something they have done only once this season. Texas lost large leads in the final three minutes against both UCLA and West Virginia, and coughed up a double-digit second-half lead against Kansas. The Longhorns also failed to convert in the final minute at Baylor, ultimately losing in overtime.

Unfortunately, the team’s problems are much too large for one sophomore to fix on his own. Although freshman point guard Javan Felix has an ugly turnover rate of 26.9%, he is not the only Longhorn unable to control the ball. Seven of the other nine rotation players also have turnover marks north of 20%, with Julien Lewis only missing out on that distinction by one-tenth of a percentage point. Kabongo cannot touch the basketball 100% of the time, and he cannot suddenly make Cameron Ridley, Connor Lammert, and Prince Ibeh have soft hands.

Kabongo also will not magically give the Longhorns enough scoring threats to make the team tough to defend. Lewis is mired in a terrible slump, shooting 28.5% from the field in his last three games. Sheldon McClellan and Rick Barnes are in a battle of wills, making McClellan’s playing time almost as unpredictable as his shooting stroke.

Fortunately, Jonathan Holmes is expected to make his return tonight for Texas. The Longhorns have struggled mightily at defending in the post since he broke his hand in the first half of a loss to Oklahoma. His absence has also caused problems for Texas on the glass, and taken away any real interior threat on the offensive end.

On his own, Kabongo could not solve all of the team’s problems. But if Holmes returns to form at the same time that the team gets its leader back on the court, the Longhorns could suddenly become much more competitive. That could cause problems for Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor, who all make trips to the Erwin Center during the final four weeks of the season. With those four teams currently bunched within 1.5 games of each other in the league standings, it’s clear that the Horns can make quite an impact on the Big 12 race down the stretch.

Meet the Cyclones

For an in-depth look at the Iowa State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

For a complete breakdown of what went wrong and what Texas did right, check out LRT’s post-game wrap from the January 12th contest.

Since then…

The Cyclones have seen mixed results through the first half of the Big 12 season, with nearly all of their wins coming within the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. Five of Iowa State’s six league wins have come at home, extending their Hilton win streak to 20 games. On the road, however, the Cyclones are just 1-4, with the lone win coming against cellar-dwelling TCU.

When these two teams first met back in January, Iowa State was ranked in the Top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Coach Fred Hoiberg had expressed surprise at his team’s success on the glass, having assumed it would be a weakness for his ballclub.

Since the calendar has turned to league play, though, those concerns have proven to be well-founded. Iowa State’s offensive rebounding mark is just 30.5% in league games, ranking dead last in the Big 12. The drop-off has not been as severe on the other end of the court, where ISU is sixth in the league with a 66.3% mark on the defensive glass.

The Cyclone offense has made up for the missing rebounds by controlling the basketball. For the year, Iowa State has a very respectable 19.4% turnover mark, but the team has managed to cut that down to just 18.3% against Big 12 opponents. As a result, Iowa State has been able to keep its efficient offense humming, leading the league with 1.092 points per possession in conference play.

Even with their clinical offense, Iowa State has still managed to make things interesting for their fans. The team’s home win over West Virginia came after blowing a double-digit lead in the second half, and the victory only came after a last-second Georges Niang layup and a controversial defensive stop on the final play.

Against Oklahoma State, the Cyclones remained hexed by Gallagher-Iba Arena when they gave up the winning bucket to Marcus Smart with only 3.1 seconds to go. Iowa State then wasted what seemed to be their final chance when Chris Babb led Tyrus McGee out of bounds with a bizarre pass on his inbounds from the sideline. But, Babb redeemed himself by establishing position on Oklahoma State’s ensuing inbounds and was shoved in the back by Le’Bryan Nash with 1.7 to go. On the final play, McGee did get off a good look at a game-winning three, but Iowa State ultimately fell short of its first win in Stillwater since 1988.

Despite that frustrating loss and a flat performance in a road defeat to Texas Tech, the Cyclones are still just 1.5 games off the lead in the Big 12. They are also firmly entrenched in NCAA discussions, with every one of the 74 brackets tracked by the Bracket Matrix including the Cyclones at an average seed of 10.

If Iowa State is going to remain in the NCAA field, Will Clyburn will have to bounce back quickly from a rough performance against Kansas State. The senior was just 2-for-9 in Saturday’s loss and posted an ugly offensive rating of 66, well off of his 107.3 rating for the season. Clyburn has a usage rate of nearly 25% in the Iowa State offense, making a brutal performance like Saturday’s even more damaging to the Cyclones. Fortunately for ISU, Clyburn had a career day against the Longhorns in January, scoring 16 points and posting an offensive rating of 137.

While the Cyclones hope that Texas can provide an opportunity for Clyburn to get back on track, the team also is looking to earn some extra road wins as they build their tournament résumé and battle for the Big 12 title. Ken Pomeroy projects the Cyclones as winners in only two of their final four road games — tonight at Texas, and in the season finale at West Virginia. Still, ISU’s win probability is only 61% against the Longhorns and 60% against the Mountaineers, making both outcomes not much better than a toss-up. Losing one or both of those games would be incredibly damaging to Iowa State’s big-picture goals.

Keys to the game

1) Clean up the glass – The Longhorns are the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big 12, allowing opponents to reclaim more than 37% of their missed shots. Fortunately, the Cyclones have had issues of their own when it comes to extending possessions, even though it wasn’t readily apparent in the first game between these two teams. Against the Longhorns, both Clyburn and Percy Gibson snagged four offensive rebounds, and the Cyclones reclaimed more than 36% of their misses. With Iowa State posting an effective field goal mark of nearly 54% in league games and turning it over only 18.3% of the time, the Longhorns have to take advantage of their stops and limit ISU to one-shot possessions.

2) Limit transition buckets – The Iowa State defense doesn’t force many turnovers, and the Longhorns only coughed it up on 17.5% of their possessions in Ames earlier this year. Still, the Texas turnovers were generally unforced and led to 23 Cyclone points. With Kabongo at the helm, the Longhorns have a much better shot at avoiding those kinds of mistakes tonight. If they can manage to do so, the Horns should be able to stay in the game until the final minutes and have a chance at pulling off the upset.

3) Lock down the perimeter – In the last four meetings between these two teams, the results have fallen right in line with Iowa State’s success behind the arc. The Cyclones knocked down 21 of their 47 three-point attempts (44.7%) in their two wins over Texas, while shooting just 25.6% (10-for-29) in the two losses to the Horns.

After Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coach Rick Barnes said that Kabongo and Demarcus Holland would be starting tonight against the Cyclones. That gives the Longhorns two excellent perimeter defenders against an Iowa State team that is outstanding beyond the arc. There’s no word on whether or not Lewis will also be in the starting five, but the sophomore guard will certainly play a key role in locking down the arc, whether it’s as a starter or a reserve.

If the Longhorns can rotate quickly and stick with the Iowa State shooters, it will force Niang and Melvin Ejim to generate points inside. If not, Texas fans will have to deal with another barrage of threes and likely another Iowa State win.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas State 8 2 W at Texas Tech, 68-59 W vs. Iowa State, 79-70 Mon at Kansas Sat vs. Baylor Kansas 7 3 L at TCU, 62-55 L at Oklahoma, 72-66 Mon vs. Kansas State Sat vs. Texas Oklahoma State 7 3 W vs. Baylor, 69-67 (OT) W at Texas, 72-59 Wed at Texas Tech Sat vs. Oklahoma Baylor 6 4 L at Oklahoma State, 69-67 (OT) W vs. Texas Tech, 75-48 Wed vs. West Virginia Sat at Kansas State Iowa State 6 4 W vs. Oklahoma, 83-64 L at Kansas State, 79-70 Wed at Texas Sat vs. TCU Oklahoma 6 4 L at Iowa State, 83-64 W vs. Kansas, 72-66 Mon vs. TCU Sat at Oklahoma State West Virginia 5 5 W vs. Texas, 60-58 W at TCU, 63-50 Wed at Baylor Sat vs. Texas Tech Texas 2 8 L at West Virginia, 60-58 L vs. Oklahoma State, 72-59 Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Kansas Texas Tech 2 8 L vs. Kansas State, 68-59 L at Baylor, 75-48 Wed vs. Oklahoma State Sat at West Virginia TCU 1 9 W vs. Kansas, 62-55 L vs. West Virginia, 63-50 Mon at Oklahoma Sat at Iowa State

The big picture

There are hits and there are misses. And then, there are misses.

Two weeks ago, in this very space, I posited that the loser of the Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd could essentially be eliminated from the conference race, even though they mathematically would remain alive for weeks. “The Jayhawks are favored to win in every game they have left,” I wrote, crediting the number-crunching skills of Ken Pomeroy. “With odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.”

Here we are, four games later, and I’ve been exposed as having the predictive skills of the Titanic’s engineers. The Jayhawks have lost three straight games for the first time in nearly eight years, and still have hostile road games left against Oklahoma State and Iowa State, plus a trip to face Baylor in Waco. And as for the loser of that Kansas State/Oklahoma game on February 2nd? The Sooners find themselves just a game behind KU and two games off the league lead, with the title race still wide open.

While it’s fun to laugh at how quickly my words were made to look foolish, it’s certainly worth noting just how shocking Kansas’ tailspin is. Not only were the Jayhawks favored by Pomeroy in each of those three games, but the cumulative probability of the team losing all three games was 0.196%. Not 19 percent, but 19 hundredths of a percent. If some Missouri fan had a bit too much to drink in Vegas and put down a few bucks on that moneyline parlay ten days ago, Allen Fieldhouse would probably have been turned into the world’s biggest Braum’s by now.

Even with the Jayhawks reeling, it’s tough to bet against Bill Self. Kansas has won or shared eight consecutive Big 12 titles, and the team still sits just a game out of first with a chance to knock off the league leaders tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. With four weeks to go, there’s certainly more than enough time for Kansas to get back on track and extend that conference-title streak to a ninth season. The road to the Big 12 title could still very well run through Lawrence, but now there are at least some viable contenders hoping to put in a detour.

Weekday games

TCU at Oklahoma; Monday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Kansas at Kansas State; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Iowa State at Texas; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3.com)
West Virginia at Baylor; Wednesday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Big 12 conference race has reached the turn, and it is just as competitive as pundits predicted during the offseason. Only one game separates the league’s top four teams, with Oklahoma and Baylor sitting just a game behind that pack.

While the league was supposed to be a battle from spots one through eight, the Longhorns have failed to live up to those expectations. Texas is mired in a tie for eighth place with Texas Tech, a full two games behind West Virginia. The Longhorns have lost three league games in regulation by six points or less and another two in overtime, leaving the team wondering “What if?” as the season starts down the home stretch.

This afternoon, the Longhorns welcome an Oklahoma State team to the Erwin Center that finally has broken through on the road. The Cowboys had won just once in 22 Big 12 road games before pulling off the upset at Allen Fieldhouse last weekend, and now find themselves in the midst of a championship hunt.

Although Texas has knocked off Oklahoma State eight straight years in Austin, that streak is in danger this afternoon. Stat guru Ken Pomeroy gives the Longhorns a 31% chance to win the game, predicting a five-point margin of victory for the Pokes. However, if Texas can manage to pull off the upset at home, it could provide some momentum for the final four weeks of the season, as Myck Kabongo makes his long-awaited return on Wednesday night against Iowa State. That tussle with the Cyclones is the first of four home games Texas will play against the league’s top half down the stretch.

By the numbers

This year’s edition of the Cowboys is the most successful for Travis Ford during his five years in Stillwater, with the team posting great numbers on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State has a stifling adjusted defensive efficiency that is ranked 10th in the nation, as the team allows opponents to score just 0.864 points per possession. Their offensive numbers are nearly as strong, with the Pokes scoring 1.076 adjusted points per possession, good enough for 55th out of 347 Division I teams.

Their defensive dominance is particularly impressive because they are sound in every area of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors. Oklahoma State’s defensive turnover rate of 22.6% is ranked 58th in the country, while the team also limits opponents to just 29.5% of their offensive rebounding chances. The Pokes also avoid sending their opponents to the line, with a free-throw rate of 31.9%, ranked 89th in the nation. Add in their defensive effective field goal percentage of 44.9%, ranked 43rd nationally, and it’s clear to see why opponents are having such a difficult time finding the net against OSU.

Oklahoma State’s forwards do a great job blocking shots inside, a big reason why the team’s defensive field goal percentage inside the arc is 16th-best in the nation. That’s also a big reason why Cowboy opponents are frequently forced to take shots from the perimeter. OSU opponents take more than 35% of their shots from beyond the arc, a distribution that is one of the 100 highest in D-I hoops. That’s also the only place that Oklahoma State opponents are finding much success, as 34% of those attempts have gone down on the year.

Meet the Cowboys

Freshman point guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) is the face of the program this year for Oklahoma State, and for good reason. Although he’s not a great shooter — only 27.7% from three and 40.2% overall — Smart is a natural leader who puts his teammates in a position to score and manages to make big shots when the pressure is on. As a part of Team USA’s U18 squad, Smart impressed coaches Mark Few and Billy Donovan, who called him the best leader they have worked with.

While Smart averages nearly 4.7 assists per game, he also makes a big difference on the defensive end, where his quick hands pester opposing guards and lead to easy transition points for Oklahoma State. He averages 2.9 steals per game, giving him the nation’s ninth-best steal rate at 5.3%.

The team’s leading scorer is Markel Brown (No. 22), a quick, exciting guard with incredible hops. Brown can put the ball on the floor to create his own shot or get to the rim, and has range to knock down jumpers all over the court. He can explode off the ground in an instant, which makes him good for a highlight-reel dunk or two per game, and that also makes him a very good shot blocker despite being just 6’3″.

Sophomore Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) was the big freshman name on last year’s squad, but he struggled with the weight of carrying an entire team. This year, he’s not the best and only option for Oklahoma State, and he’s flourishing with a better supporting cast. Although Nash has a good jump shot, he has been too persistent in taking shots from behind the arc, where he’s made only 23.1% of his attempts this season. When he stays near the block to post up or tries to face up other forwards from about 12 to 15 feet, Nash is much more effective.

Senior Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the man in the middle, who is called upon mostly to rebound and score the occasional putback. He’s playing about 20 minutes per game, but still leads the team with more than seven rebounds per game. Jurick ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, and his 6.6% block percentage also ranks 120th for D-I players.

Joining Jurick in the frontcourt is 6’8″ sophomore Michael Cobbins (No. 20), who is actually slightly better at blocking shots. Although Jurick and Cobbins both have swatted 23 shots this year, the sophomore has a block rate of 6.8%. Long and lean, he also has springy hops that make him an excellent defensive rebounder. Cobbins can also knock down hook shots around the paint, and favors the power dribble even though he doesn’t have the big body of a prototypical forward.

Freshman guard Phil Forte (No. 13) has been a lifelong friend and teammate of Smart, and now he’s a key bench contributor for OSU. For Texas fans who remember the historic performance by Keiton Page in last year’s game at Stillwater, Forte could provide some flashbacks. The freshman has an incredibly quick release on the catch and shoot, and has knocked down 36.6% of his threes on the season.

Forward Kamari Murphy (No. 21) is a 6’8″ freshman from Brooklyn who is playing solid minutes off the bench. Built in the same mold as Cobbins, he’s a high-motor guy who works hard on the glass and also has great natural instincts and timing for blocking shots.

Junior Kirby Gardner (No. 1) is a juco transfer from San Bernardino Valley who plays around 11 minutes per game in relief of Smart. He has a great feel for pace, and uses that to his advantage when running the pick and roll with Jurick or the other bigs.

The final member of the rotation is guard Brian Williams (No. 4), who is working his way back from a broken left wrist. After missing the first 18 games of the year due to that injury, Williams appeared against Iowa State and Baylor, logging a total of 14 minutes and six points. Although he is still getting reacquainted with game speed, having Williams back in the mix will be a big boost as the Big 12 race heads down the stretch.

Keys to the game

1) Knock down early threes – Oklahoma State’s defense can be very difficult to crack, as the length on the perimeter makes penetrating difficult, and the solid shot blockers inside add another layer of resistance. The one area where opponents have found success against the Cowboys is on the perimeter, so that means that the Longhorns will need big games from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) and Julien Lewis (No. 14), the only real three-point threats for Texas this afternoon.

In Big 12 play, Papapetrou has made 46.2% of his shots behind the arc, while Lewis has struggled to an ugly 24.4% mark. Lewis has made more than 34% of his attempts on the season, so there is reason to be optimistic that he can break out of his slump sometime soon. If Texas can knock down some threes early, adjustments from the Oklahoma State defense will hopefully open up things a little bit inside the arc.

2) Avoid perimeter turnovers – That aforementioned length gives opposing guards a lot of trouble on the perimeter, while Smart’s quick hands are worth a few easy buckets for Oklahoma State in every game. Texas is still struggling to hang on to the basketball, so this is a very scary match-up for the Horns. If Texas can avoid wasting possessions and giving up fast breaks with dumb perimeter turnovers, they might stay within striking distance of an upset. If not, the Cowboys will likely enjoy their first two-game road winning streak since 2009.

3) Turn back dribble penetration – Oklahoma State is not a team that dumps it in to the standard big man and watches as he does his work. Although Nash has the ability to post up on the blocks, the Cowboys usually employ pick and rolls and dribble penetration to get defenses moving and earn easy looks in the paint. If the Longhorns can keep Smart and Brown from slicing up the defense on the bounce, the Cowboys will have to rely more on perimeter shooting from the likes of Forte. If Texas cannot slow down the OSU guards, the Cowboys could find points very easy to come by.

When the suits at ESPN planned out their Big Monday lineup, Texas’ first visit to Morgantown seemed like a no-brainer. With a batch of transfers becoming eligible, Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers looked to be competitive in the middle of a deep Big 12, while Myck Kabongo and the Longhorns were expected to be fighting for a 15th-consecutive NCAA appearance. Instead, both teams have scuttled through disappointing seasons, and are now only hoping to avoid first-round action in the Big 12 tournament.

Meet the Mountaineers

For an in-depth look at the West Virginia roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns could not score a point before the first media timeout when these two teams played in Austin on January 9th, but their stifling defense kept them in the game. West Virginia was limited to just 30.6% shooting from the field, and the Mountaineers missed their first 14 attempts from three-point range. With the Longhorns only sinking 34.5% of their own looks, it was not a pretty game to watch.

Sheldon McClellan (No. 1) struggled against a tight, physical approach from West Virginia, and managed just nine points on 2-of-13 shooting in a reserve role. It was Jonathan Holmes (No. 10) who paced the Horns while battling a big West Virginia frontcourt, scoring 12 points to go with nine rebounds.

That Mountaineer frontcourt was trying to dodge foul trouble all night long, even with Aaric Murray (No. 24) and Deniz Kilicli (No. 13) coming off of the bench for Coach Huggins. Kilicli and Dominique Rutledge (No. 1) both had three fouls just 15 minutes into the game, while Murray had two of his own in the first half. Even with the rotating frontcourt, West Virginia was able to reclaim 40% of their missed shots before the break.

That trouble on the defensive glass would continue for Texas down the stretch and ultimately prove costly. The Longhorns were up by 10 points with 3:41 to play, giving them a win probability of 98.7% at that point, according to Ken Pomeroy. West Virginia suddenly caught fire from long range, hitting three triples and forcing Holmes to drain his own three in the final seconds just to get Texas to overtime.

In the extra period, West Virginia reclaimed 66.7% of their offensive rebounding chances, including three on one trip down the court. After Prince Ibeh (No. 44) made one of two free throws to cut the Mountaineer lead to one point with less than a minute to go, another WVU offensive rebound crushed the Longhorns after they had forced a defensive stop.

The Longhorns had one final chance with 15 seconds to go, down by a basket, but a risky pass from Ioannis Papapetrou (No. 33) was picked off by Murray and iced the 57-53 overtime win for West Virginia.

Since then…

That torrid comeback in Austin was the first of a few valiant efforts by the Mountaineers in Big 12 play, but it was the only one to result in a victory. West Virginia erased an 18-point second-half hole at Iowa State, but lost on a Georges Niang layup in the final seconds. A week ago, the Mountaineers overcame an ice-cold start and a 15-point deficit against Kansas to get within a basket in the second half. Once again, the comeback bid fell short, and West Virginia dropped a 61-56 decision.

The Mountaineers were able to build on that late-game surge when they traveled to Lubbock on Saturday. West Virginia posted its best offensive performance of the season, scoring 1.218 points per possession against the Red Raiders. Normally, strong showings against Tech and TCU are not cause for celebration, but West Virginia was able to jump-start its offense with a barrage of three-pointers. For a team that had made just 29.1% of their threes coming into the game, West Virginia’s 10-of-18 performance behind the arc was downright miraculous.

Guard Eron Harris (No. 10) made three of those triples for the Mountaineers, and led all scorers with 18 points. The Texas game was something of a launching pad for the exciting freshman, who made up for a rough outing against the Longhorns by hitting the go-ahead three in the final minute of regulation. Since that game, he’s averaging 13 points per contest and has made at least a pair of threes against four different opponents.

The Texas game was also the first that Juwan Staten (No. 3) found himself in the doghouse, as the Dayton transfer was benched for all of the second half and overtime against the Longhorns. He did not play in the following game against Kansas State, and has started just twice since then. Even with Coach Huggins using Staten in his own personal game of Starting Five Hokey Pokey, the senior guard seems to be adjusting. In his last two games, Staten has averaged 12.5 points, a nice bump from his previous season average of 9.5 per game.

The Mountaineers briefly experimented with a four-guard look, but have reverted to their traditional lineup. While trying to contain the Cyclones and their floor-spreading attack, Coach Huggins put four guards on the court, and then started just one big in the following game against Purdue. After the Boilermakers whipped West Virginia by a 79-52 count, the project was quickly abandoned.

For the Longhorns, the biggest difference tonight will be the absence of Holmes. The sophomore forward broke a bone in his hand on January 21st, and is expected to miss at least three weeks. He was the key contributor in the first game between these two teams, and was the Longhorn best-equipped to handle the physical nature of West Virginia’s frontcourt.

One player who will be called on to pick up the slack is undersized forward Jaylen Bond (No. 5). He was the lone bright spot in an embarrassing blowout loss at Kansas State last Wednesday, but was essentially a non-factor in the win against TCU on Saturday. Bond’s interior defense has left a lot to be desired, especially when he gambles for steals and gets out of position. Still, the Longhorns will need a solid performance from him and the freshman bigs if they are going to limit the damage done by Murray.

Holmes is not the only player missing tonight’s game due to injury. West Virginia senior swingman Matt Humphrey (No. 21) is also likely to miss his fourth-consecutive game due to a shoulder injury. Although the Mountaineers have adequate depth in the backcourt, Humphrey’s 35.3% mark from behind the arc was one of the best on a poor-shooting three-point team.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chances – There’s no way to completely keep a Bob Huggins team off of the glass, but the Longhorns must do a better job than they did in crunch time of the first game. On many possessions, West Virginia’s best offense is a putback opportunity, so the Longhorns have to follow up their defensive stops with a rebound. Texas allowed WVU to reclaim 39.5% of its offensive rebounding chances in the first game, so the Horns will have to seriously improve on that number to get a road win tonight.

2) Get McClellan going – Texas was able to survive a poor showing by McClellan in the first game because of the solid night by Holmes. With the big man now wearing a cast on the bench, even more pressure will fall on McClellan to provide points tonight. He has been visibly frustrated by good defenses in the past, and West Virginia’s rough, suffocating approach could easily get in his head tonight. If McClellan can get a few hoops early, it will help him to avoid forcing things out of frustration and will make things easier for the entire team.

3) Hang on to the ball – The Longhorns coughed it up on more than 20% of their possessions against West Virginia the first time around, which was actually an improvement on their season average. Still, Texas turned it over twice in the final three minutes and another two times in overtime. The Longhorns have had difficulty closing out games all season, and ill-timed turnovers are a big reason why. Texas will have to deal with West Virginia’s physical nature and hang on to the basketball if they want to steal a road win in Morgantown.

4) Make free throws – West Virginia is in the bottom third of D-I hoops when it comes to sending opponents to the stripe, and Texas failed to take advantage of that in the first meeting. The Longhorns made only 44% of their free throws in the loss to West Virginia, sinking just 11 of 25. If Texas leaves that many free points on the table tonight, it’s hard to envision a positive final result on the scoreboard.

On Wednesday, the Texas Longhorns suffered their worst loss in more than seven years, as they were blown out by 26 points at Bramlage Coliseum. Texas posted its second-worst defensive performance of the year, allowing Kansas State to score 1.268 points per possession, well above the team’s season average of 0.885 points allowed. It was a demoralizing loss in every facet of the game, as the Wildcats out-hustled Texas to loose balls, forced turnovers, and scored at will for the entire 40 minutes.

Fortunately, the Longhorns should be able to quickly put that loss behind them. TCU comes to town tonight for the first meeting in five years between these former Southwest Conference rivals, currently riding a seven-game losing streak. The Horned Frogs and first-year coach Trent Johnson have suffered through terrible luck in the injury department and are still looking for their first conference win in the Big 12. Texas could not ask for a better opponent to face when in dire need of a bounce-back performance.

By the numbers

Folks who have complained about their inability to watch the Longhorn Network might be thankful for the lack of carriage tonight. Both TCU and Texas struggle to score, while both teams also have strong defenses. Add in the fact that the Horned Frogs play at the 15th-slowest pace in all of Division I hoops, and the points could be few and far between in this one.

TCU’s adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked an abysmal 329th out of 347 teams in D-I. The Horned Frogs score an adjusted 0.867 points per possession, with that number dipping even further in conference play. Against Big 12 opponents, the Frogs have managed just 0.804 points per possession, and they have posted a league-worst 38.6% effective field goal percentage.

Making those scoring problems even worse are TCU’s struggles to hold on to the ball and to convert their freebies. The Frogs have coughed it up on 22.5% of their possessions and have made only 60.2% of their free throws. That percentage at the line is 10th-worst in Division I, which should help a foul-prone Texas defense tonight. The Longhorns send their opponents to the line more than any other team in Big 12 play, so they have to hope that TCU continues leaving points at the charity stripe.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs have performed admirably, although their numbers are helped out quite a bit by a very weak non-conference schedule. TCU faced only one team ranked in the Top 100 by Ken Pomeroy, and played only one other that ranked in the Top 150. Since shifting to league competition, the Horned Frogs have allowed 1.057 points per possession, ninth-best in the conference.

The tempo-free areas where TCU has excelled defensively are turnover percentage and free-throw rate. The Frogs have forced Big 12 opponents to turn it over on 22.6% of their possessions, the best rate in the league. Their FTR is second-best in the Big 12, as they give up roughly one free throw for every four field-goal attempts.

Meet the Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs seemed to be heading in the right direction at the end of Jim Christian’s tenure, pulling off big home upsets over UNLV and New Mexico last year. Although they lost three key players from last year’s team, a lot of promising young talent and a solid recruiting class gave TCU fans a reason to be excited heading into their first Big 12 season. But, thanks to a rash of injuries, Coach Johnson has been forced to shift his rotation all season long, and he’s rolled out nine different starting lineups this year.

Big man Aaron Durley (No. 44), who had originally committed to Marquette, was lost for the year after suffering a knee injury in pre-season workouts. Expectations were also high for Amric Fields (No. 4), who was the Sixth Man of the Year in the Mountain West last season. Unfortunately, he also suffered a knee injury just minutes into the third game of the season. As if those setbacks weren’t enough, the Horned Frogs also lost Jarvis Ray (No. 1) for six to eight weeks after he injured his foot in a non-con win over Southern.

With so many key contributors lost, even more pressure has fallen on the shoulders of sophomore point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5). Tabbed Freshman of the Year in the Mountain West last season, Anderson has started all 20 games for the Horned Frogs this year and has an impressive assist rate of 26.9%. He is the team’s only consistent three-point shooter, as he sinks 35.9% of his looks and averages nearly four attempts per game.

Anderson’s 11.6 points per game are tops on the team, and his 3.1% steal rate ranks just outside the Top 300 nationally. Most impressively, Anderson logs those steals without drawing whistles, as he has been called for just 1.7 fouls per 40 minutes.

The only other Frog to start in every game is senior forward Garlon Green (No. 33). He has shown some nice post moves on the block, but also has a solid mid-range game and accuracy beyond the three-point line. Although he averages just under two attempts from long range per game, Green has connected on 38.9% of those shots.

One area of Green’s game that is frustrating is his work on the offensive glass. In the loss to Iowa State, his ability to extend possessions with offensive rebounds and get easy second-chance points were a key to TCU staying competitive with the Cyclones. But on the season, Green’s offensive rebounding percentage is a paltry 3.9%. If the 6’7″ senior would fight more consistently for boards on that end of the court, the Horned Frogs could be much more competitive in the Big 12.

One man who is rebounding consistently is fellow senior Adrick McKinney (No. 24). A hometown kid who played at Trimble Tech High, McKinney is ranked just outside of the Top 100 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. McKinney snags 12.6% of his opportunities on the offensive end, while reclaiming 22% of opponents’ misses on the other end.

McKinney is a handful inside, but most opponents have made him work for his points. The senior makes just 53.4% of his free throws, which is why defenses have no problem fouling him when he gets the ball in good position down low. McKinney’s free-throw rate of 71.5% — meaning he takes roughly seven free throws for every ten field goal tries — underscores that problem.

For a Texas team that has struggled defending the post since Jonathan Holmes’ injury, this is a welcome development. As long as the Horns make their post fouls count and don’t allow and-one opportunities, they can limit McKinney’s effectiveness by sending him to the stripe.

The other big man for TCU is sophomore Devonta Abron (No. 23), who hails from Seagoville outside of Dallas. A transfer from Arkansas, he was given a waiver and allowed to play immediately due to an ill family member. Like McKinney, Abron struggles at the line, and opponents send him there often. His free-throw rate is an even 70%, while he actually makes just 52.4% of his attempts from the stripe.

At 6’8″ and 255 pounds, Abron is a presence in the lane. His 4.6% block percentage is tops on the team and averages out to roughly one block per game. He’s ranked in the Top 250 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages and has increased his playing time to more than 24 minutes per game in Big 12 contests. Abron still has great strides to make offensively, but he’s certainly developed quite a bit in his short time with TCU.

Freshman guard Charles Hill, Jr. (No. 0) is currently the flavor of the month for that fifth starting spot, having surged onto the scene in conference play. After averaging just 2.2 minutes per game in non-conference games, Hill has started five of seven Big 12 games and is averaging more than 26 minutes against Big 12 foes.

The freshman is an aggressive guard with great slashing skills, and that driving ability really opens things up for an offense that can become very stagnant at times. Unfortunately, he has struggled to actually put the ball in the basket, sinking less than 30% of his shots on the year. Until he proves that he can hit a midrange jumper or consistently knock down the triple, defenses can sag off of him and take away that driving threat.

Senior guard Nate Butler Lind (No. 21) has also started five games in Big 12 play, but has logged eleven starts on the year. He also brings dribble penetration to the table, but has been marginally more consistent than Hill when it comes to knocking down the midrange jumper. Like Hill, he also has not made enough threes to warrant tight defense, so that hampers his ability to put it on the floor and get to the paint.

The final player of TCU’s core rotation is 6’7″ forward Connell Crossland (No. 2). A juco transfer from Logan College, he has been a solid rebounder off the bench and is averaging 21 minutes per game. He nearly logged a double-double in the team’s Big 12 debut, snagging nine boards to go with eight points. Crossland has continued to impress in conference play, ranking second on the team with five boards per game. He’s also turned it up on the offensive end, averaging 11.5 points in the team’s last two games against Baylor and West Viginia.

Keys to the game

1) Take advantage on the glass – Texas has struggled all season to secure defensive rebounds, and that problem has only become worse with the absence of Holmes. Texas Tech reclaimed 48.6% of their missed shots, while the Wildcats grabbed 40% of their misses on Wednesday night. TCU is a very average rebounding team that has a tough time making shots. If Texas can actually take advantage of that weakness on the glass and hold the Frogs to mostly one-shot possessions, the Longhorns should have no trouble tonight.

2) Take care of the ball – One area where the Frogs do find success is in forcing mistakes on the defensive end. Ball control has been a recurring problem for Texas, and those problems resurfaced in that ugly loss to K-State. The Longhorns ended 27.5% of their possessions with a turnover, and simply cannot afford to do the same against TCU tonight. The Horned Frogs are going to try to make this a low-possession game, so each and every mistake will be magnified.

3) Speed up the Frogs – One way to avoid a low-possession game with highly-leveraged possessions is to force TCU to speed things up. The Frogs were able to hang with Iowa State for about 15 minutes when they matched the up-tempo approach of the Cyclones, but ultimately made too many mistakes and couldn’t play good transition defense.

Meanwhile, Texas showed that it was willing to throw out some pressure against Texas Tech last Saturday in an effort to speed up the Red Raiders. The Horns would be wise to try that same approach with the Frogs at random times tonight, not only making TCU uncomfortable on offense, but also hopefully contributing to some easy fast break points for Texas.

The Texas Longhorns finally earned their first conference win on Saturday night, taking care of a Texas Tech team that should finish the season at the bottom of the Big 12 standings. Texas looked rejuvenated, hustling to loose balls and pressuring the Red Raiders into mistakes. While excitement was certainly tempered by the quality of opponent, geting over that hump and finally earning a league win was a big accomplishment for this young team. After three narrow losses in Big 12 play and a heartbreaking loss to UCLA in the non-con, the win was a much-needed boost of confidence.

With four games still remaining until the return of point guard Myck Kabongo and with Jonathan Holmes out at least three weeks with a broken bone in his hand, the young Longhorns face long odds in trying to climb back towards .500 in league play. Increasing the difficulty level are a pair of tough road trips over the next week, as the Horns head to Kansas State tonight and West Virginia on Monday. Although Texas is just 1-8 away from the Erwin Center and winless in true road games, stealing a victory in either one of those games would go a long way in the team’s fight to get back to the middle of the pack.

Kansas State poses an especially tough test, as their experience far outweighs that of the Longhorns. The Wildcats return essentially everyone from last year’s NCAA-tournament team, having lost only Jamar Samuels and little-used Victor Ojeleye to graduation. Texas has also come up empty in its last two trips to Bramlage Coliseum, while K-State has won 11 out of their last 12 games at the Octagon of Doom.

By the numbers

With almost the entire K-State roster back, it’s no surprise that the team has maintained its stingy defense from the Frank Martin era. On the season, the Wildcats are allowing an adjusted 0.902 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. The Wildcats force mistakes on 22.4% of their defensive possessions and have held opponents to a 46% effective field-goal percentage, both stats that rank in the Top 100 nationally.

However, when you dig a little deeper into the numbers, it’s clear that K-State’s defensive stats have been buoyed a bit by a very strong start against weak non-conference competition. Since the start of Big 12 play, Kansas State’s adjusted defensive efficiency has ballooned to 1.001 points per possession. League opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 49.8% and a free-throw rate of 44.8%. In simpler terms, Big 12 foes are getting to the line to shoot a little more than two free throws for every five field goal attempts.

Another K-State statistic that has seen a precipitous drop since the start of league play is their offensive rebounding percentage. For the year, the Wildcats have reclaimed 39.1% of their missed shots, but have been able to do so only 27.8% of the time against Big 12 opponents. In fact, in Saturday’s loss to Iowa State, KSU posted just a 17.2% mark on the offensive glass. The Wildcats are only an average-shooting bunch, having an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% on the year. That means that offensive rebounds are essential for K-State to keep scoring, so the drop-off in league play is concerning.

The other reason that the Wildcats are able to have an efficient offense despite average shooting is the fact that they value the basketball. Kansas State has a turnover percentage of only 18.9%, and the team has improved that to 17% against Big 12 opponents. Their ability to maximize possessions by not turning it over and getting to missed shots is the reason that their adjusted offensive efficiency is a solid 1.062 points per possession.

That offense has a new look under first-year head coach Bruce Weber. He favors a motion offense with constant cutting across the free-throw line and baseline, eschewing pick and roll sets for dribble handoffs and crisp passing. As a result, the Wildcats have assists on nearly 65% of their buckets, a number that ranks 11th in the nation. That stat also underscores the fact that it can be hard for K-State to score if it doesn’t get looks in the flow of the offense. The team lacks true slashers that can get to the rim or players that can shake a defender to get an open jumper.

That reliance on taking jump shots off of passes also means that the Wildcats don’t get to the line very often. The team’s free-throw rate of 32.3% is ranked in the bottom 100 of Division I’s 347 teams, but that could be a blessing in disguise. When the Wildcats do manage to get to the charity stripe, they make only 64.7% of their attempts.

Meet the Wildcats

The team’s leading scorer is senior Rodney McGruder (No. 22), a player that Texas fans know all too well. In last year’s meeting at Bramlage Coliseum, McGruder poured in 33 points, and he has averaged 19.3 points in four games against Texas. There were some growing pains for the senior at the begining of the season, as he adjusted to his new role in Weber’s offense. Now, he is much better at reading the defense on his cuts and finding open space to receive the pass and get up his shot. McGruder is averaging 18.7 points and has made 44.2% of his threes in Big 12 games.

Whoever is tasked with slowing down McGruder will have to bring their track shoes. The Wildcats will run their star through numerous screens, waiting for just enough of a defensive lapse to get him open for a jumper. If Julien Lewis and the other Texas defenders can stay in McGruder’s shirt and force him to put the ball on the floor, his effectiveness is limited. He has shown at times this season that when opponents deny him open looks on the pass, he can get frustrated enough to start forcing bad, challenged shots off the bounce.

As of late, the other main scoring threat for Kansas State is junior Shane Southwell (No. 1). After coming off the bench in the team’s first nine games, Southwell has been a starter in the last ten. In Big 12 play, he is averaging 11.8 points and has knocked down 48% of his threes. He is a skilled shooter who has a nice midrange jumper, but he is perhaps most dangerous when opponents switch on screens. The 6’6″ Southwell is quick to notice when he has a smaller guard on him, and will isolate those defenders near the hoop for short jumpers and layups.

At the point, sophomore Angel Rodriguez (No. 13) has grown up quite a bit since last season. In the team’s last four games, the once-erratic Rodriguez has posted 26 assists against only three turnovers. For a player that would often over-penetrate and force the ball against set defenders, that improvement is staggering. He still can get defenders on his hip and drive to the rack, but now the sophomore has a better feel for when those opportunities are actually there.

Unfortunately, while Rodriguez has been improving his ball control, his long-range shooting has declined considerably. The Puerto Rican product certainly has range beyond the arc, but he has made only 6-of-28 (21.4%) in the team’s last ten games, dragging his average down to 29.6% on the year. While the Longhorns can’t completely sag off of him, his long-range struggles do mean that they can give him a little space and try to neutralize his driving ability.

In the middle, sophomore Thomas Gipson (No. 42) is a vacuum that keeps the K-State offense humming. Although the Wildcats don’t typically post him up and dump the ball inside, he constantly reclaims missed shots and knows where to go when Rodriguez drives so that he can receive the dump-off and go up strong. Gipson’s offensive rebounding mark of 15.9% is 21st in all of D-I hoops, while his 17.3% mark on the defensive end also ranks just outside the Top 400.

One issue with Gipson’s game is his inability to convert at the line. Although K-State doesn’t get to the stripe very often as a team, he draws a little less than six fouls on opponents per forty minutes. That sends Gipson to the free-throw line around four times per game, where he is only making 57.4% of his attempts.

Rounding out the starting five is three-point marksman Will Spradling (No. 55). Like McGruder, Spradling will have numerous screens set for him in the K-State motion offense, and he has the quick release and accuracy to make opponents pay. On the year, he has made more than 35% of his threes, and has taken more than 67% of his looks from behind the arc. Although the Longhorns are already going to have their hands full trying to shut down McGruder and Southwell, they also cannot afford to lose track of Spradling.

With conference play now in full swing, Coach Weber has shrunk his core rotation to eight players. Senior forward Jordan Henriquez (No. 21) is a familiar face to fans of Big 12 basketball, as his 6’11″ frame has made him a defensive presence all four of his years in Manhattan. He has a lot of length — even for a guy that tall — and has great timing, making him a great shot-blocker in the middle.

It’s also worth noting that when Henriquez gets the ball in the post, teams might actually find success simply fouling him. The senior has made just 28.9% of his free throws this year, and is a 50% career shooter at the line.

Fellow senior Martavious Irving (No. 3) plays an important role as the team’s backup point guard, and also brings excellent perimeter defense to the table. Irving is also a threat to pop the three, and has shown no qualms about quickly taking one off the dribble when opponents are paying too much attention to McGruder and Spradling off the ball.

Sophomore forward Nino Williams (No. 11) was a highly touted recruit out of high school, but never found consistent playing time under Coach Martin. He is still just a role player at this point, but is now at least seeing the court every night and averaging 12.5 minutes per game in league play.

Although not a part of that core rotation, freshman forward D.J. Johnson (No. 50) could also see some meaningful minutes in this one. After hardly playing from mid-December to late January, he logged 20 minutes against Iowa State on Saturday and chipped in a block and two boards. At 6’8″ and 250 pounds, he already is an intimidating presence inside, and it looks like he can be a force in the Big 12 by the time his career is finished.

Keys to the game

1) Limit KSU’s offensive rebounds – Closing out defensive possessions with rebounds has been a problem for Texas all season, and that could unfortunately play a huge role in tonight’s game. The Wildcats are generally an average team when it comes to shooting the ball, but they crash the glass and earn second-chance points. The Longhorns allowed a smaller Texas Tech team to reclaim more than 48% of their missed shots on Saturday, and late-game offensive rebounds helped Baylor and West Virginia pull out overtime wins over Texas. Repeating those same mistakes tonight will eliminate any hopes of a Longhorn upset.

2) Communicate on defense – With the constant screening and cutting in Kansas State’s offense, the strong Longhorn defense is going to be tested tonight. Texas needs to recognize who the shooters are and avoid going under screens against them, while also being aware that players like McGruder and Southwell will exploit favorable matchups that can arise from switching screens. If Texas can play sound team defense, the score will be in the range that can give them a shot at pulling off the road win. If not, this Wildcat offense can make their half-court offense look like a clinic.

3) Take care of the basketball – The opening ten minutes of the Oklahoma game and the final minutes of the Kansas loss reminded Texas fans just how bad the turnover bug was for the Longhorns at the beginning of the year. While the youngsters have made vast improvements in that department, the hiccups tend to come back in waves, and often at the worst possible time. Kansas State forces quite a few mistakes with their defense, so the Longhorns must avoid coughing it up tonight. Not only will turnovers waste possessions, but they will often lead to runouts that will get a loud and intimidating Bramlage crowd whipped into even more of a frenzy.

TEAM W L LAST WEEK THIS WEEK Kansas 6 0 W at Kansas State, 59-55 W vs. Oklahoma, 67-54 Mon at West Virginia Sat vs. Oklahoma State Baylor 5 1 W vs. Oklahoma State, 64-54 W at TCU, 82-56 Wed vs. Oklahoma Sat at Iowa State Kansas State 4 2 L vs. Kansas, 59-55 L at Iowa State, 73-67 Wed vs. Texas Sat at Oklahoma Iowa State 4 2 L at Texas Tech, 56-51 W vs. Kansas State, 73-67 Wed at Oklahoma State Sat vs. Baylor Oklahoma 4 2 W vs. Texas, 73-67 L at Kansas, 67-54 Wed at Baylor Sat vs. Kansas State Oklahoma State 3 3 L at Baylor, 64-54 W vs. West Virginia, 80-66 Wed vs. Iowa State Sat at Kansas West Virginia 2 4 W vs. TCU, 71-50 L at Oklahoma State, 80-66 Mon vs. Kansas Sat at Texas Tech Texas Tech 2 5 W vs. Iowa State, 56-51 L at Texas, 73-57 Sat vs. West Virginia Texas 1 5 L at Oklahoma, 73-67 W vs. Texas Tech, 73-57 Wed at Kansas State Sat vs. TCU TCU 0 7 L at West Virginia, 71-50 L vs. Baylor, 82-56 Sat at Texas

The big picture

The Iowa State Cyclones were on both ends of an upset last week, inexplicably dropping a game at Texas Tech before rebounding with a win over Kansas State at Hilton Coliseum on Saturday. Of course, astute sports fans will point out that Iowa State’s win over the Wildcats was only an upset if you pay attention to pollsters, as the Cyclones were four-point favorites despite being unranked.

The loss at Hilton was the second for Kansas State last week, as the Wildcats fell short against KU at home on Tuesday night. They slid from a first-place tie into a three-way tie for third, with a big game coming up at Oklahoma on Saturday. Both teams are 4-2, and although we are not even halfway through the conference schedule, it’s hard to imagine that the loser still has a hope to even tie for the league title. The Jayhawks are favored to win in every game they have left, according to Ken Pomeroy. With odds like that, it’s hard to believe that KU could drop three games down the stretch.

The only team that is still a game behind the unblemished Jayhawks are the Baylor Bears, but it’s hard to tell how much of their record is a result of their easy opening schedule. Baylor has four wins against the bottom three teams in the conference, with two of those victories coming against cellar-dwelling TCU. Baylor’s other win came at home against an Oklahoma State team that has won only one Big 12 road game in its last 22 trips. This week’s games against Oklahoma and at Iowa State should clarify where the Bears truly belong in the league pecking order.

Weekday games

Kansas at West Virginia; Monday, 8 P.M. CT (ESPN)

West Virginia makes its first Big Monday appearance as a member of the Big 12, and will also be facing Kansas for the first time in school history. The Jayhawks are riding a 17-game winning streak and ascended to the top spot in this week’s USA Today Coaches Poll, having dispatched both Kansas State and Oklahoma last week.

Kansas has been easily handling most opponents, leading by double-digits at some point in every game except for the loss to Michigan State and the comeback win at Texas. It’s likely they will do the same against West Virginia tonight, as the Mountaineers make less than 30% of their threes and will also have a tough time scoring inside against block-machine Jeff Withey.

Oklahoma at Baylor; Wednesday, 6 P.M. CT (ESPNU)

Oklahoma has been a pleasant surprise in Lon Kruger‘s second season at the helm. Senior Romero Osby is peaking at just the right time, averaging 18 points and seven boards in Big 12 play. The frontcourt battle between OU’s Osby and Amath M’Baye and Baylor’s Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson should be a blast to watch. All four love to stretch the floor and should open things up for their shot-creating guards.

The other interesting matchup will be on the perimeter, where Oklahoma is limiting opponents to just 31% accuracy on three-point attempts. The Bears are one of the nation’s better long-range teams, knocking down 35.5% of their threes against D-I opponents. If Oklahoma can manage that kind of defensive success against the likes of Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip, the Sooners have to like their chances with a much more experienced frontcourt.

Texas at Kansas State; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN2)

The Texas/Kansas State preview will be available on Wednesday.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State; Wednesday, 7 P.M. CT (Big 12 Network/ESPN3.com)

Without looking it up, can you guess what year it was when the Cyclones last won at Gallagher-Iba Arena? If you picked sometime this century, you need to go a little further back. Don’t name a year during the Clinton administration, either. As hard as it is to believe, Iowa State has not won a game at Oklahoma State since March of 1988. Although Iowa State only traveled to Stillwater every other season during the 12-team era of the Big 12 Conference, they did make annual trips during the Big 8 days. All told, that’s 17 consecutive road losses over 24 years for ISU at Gallagher-Iba. To put it another way, Fred Hoiberg was still just a pimply-faced teenager at Ames High School when the Cyclones last tasted victory in Stillwater.

Historical context aside, this is a huge game for both teams. Oklahoma State has continued their struggles on the road in conference play, making their defense of home-court advantage even more important if they want to finish near the top of the standings. Iowa State, on the other hand, sacrificed what should have been essentially a gimme-game at Texas Tech. To make up that lost ground, they now have to steal a road game or two against tougher competition.

It has been a rough season for the Texas Longhorns, who are sitting at 0-5 in conference play for the first time in nearly 40 years. They will need a miraculous finish to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in Rick Barnes’ 15 seasons on the 40 Acres, and they just lost sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes for at least three weeks with a broken bone in his hand.

If there were ever an opponent the Longhorns would be happy to see in their current funk, it would be the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Barnes is a perfect 14-0 against Texas Tech at the Erwin Center, and the Red Raiders are in the midst of their own disappointing season. Interim head coach Chris Walker is trying to put the pieces together in Lubbock after the program lost coach Billy Gillispie less than two weeks before the start of practice.

The Longhorns still have five games to play without sophomore guard Myck Kabongo, who will miss 23 contests this season due to an NCAA suspension. With Texas Tech and TCU both coming to the Erwin Center during that five-game stretch, the Longhorns have the chance to build a little bit of confidence and momentum before Kabongo’s return. Texas’ schedule is favorable for the final eight games, so there is still time to right the ship and battle for a post-season bid, even if the NCAAs are ultimately out of reach.

By the numbers

The Red Raiders struggle even more than the Longhorns when it comes to scoring, although the margin is razor-thin. Texas Tech has posted an adjusted offensive efficiency mark of 0.948 points per possession, according to Ken Pomeroy. The Longhorns, meanwhile, average an adjusted 0.951 points each time down the court.

Tech’s inability to score is the result of very poor shooting, especially from outside. The team has made only 26.5% of its three-point attempts this season, the ninth-worst mark in all of Division I hoops. Tech has just two players who have made more than 30% of their three pointers, and that pair has combined to average just over two makes per game. That long-range futility means that opponents can sag way off of the perimeter on defense, making it harder for the Red Raiders to get the ball into the paint.

Knowing that Tech faces packed-in defenses, it might come as a surprise that the team has a two-point field goal percentage that is currently ranked 68th in the country. The Red Raiders make just over 50% of their shots from inside the arc, thanks to easy looks on putbacks and dribble penetration from guards and wings. The team’s 35.3% offensive rebounding mark is 70th in the country, while their assist percentage of 44.3 ranks in the bottom 20 nationally.

Early in the year, the Red Raiders were getting out and pushing the tempo. However, in conference play, Coach Walker has taken the air out of the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and increase his overmatched team’s odds to pull off the upset. Although Tech is averaging 69.1 possessions per game, that number has plummeted to just 64 possessions per game in Big 12 contests.

While the strategy has only led to one upset, it is keeping the Red Raiders competitive for longer against much better opponents. Tech trailed Kansas by just two and Oklahoma by five at halftime in each of those games, but went on to lose by 14 and 16 points, respectively. The Red Raiders also hung with Oklahoma State for about 14 minutes in their game, staying within three points. The Pokes blew Tech out of the water over the final 26 minutes, outscoring their opponents by 31 over that stretch.

Meet the Red Raiders

The key player for Texas Tech is actually their sixth man, 6’7″ junior forward Jaye Crockett (No. 30). Crockett can knock down midrange jumpers and threes, but has suffered from the same shooting inconsistencies that have plagued the entire team. Fortunately, he has a nice repertoire of post moves that he can use against defenders of all sizes and is usually able to get to the rack, even through contact. Crockett has also shown a very nice turnaround jumper throughout his career at Tech, so he’s still able to score near the paint even when opponents play sound defense.

Crockett also leads the team with eight rebounds per game, and has a defensive rebounding rate that is just outside the Top 50 nationally. Crockett reclaims 24.1% of opponents’ missed shots when he is on the court, and also snags 11.3% of his offensive rebounding opportunities.

Fellow 6’7″ forward Jordan Tolbert (No. 32) is also a big part of Tech’s success on the glass, but he does his work as a member of the starting five. The sophomore is also ranked nationally in both rebounding categories, grabbing 11.6% of his offensive opportunities and 19.9% of his chances on the defensive end. Although he averages only 8.5 points per game, his rebounding contributions and interior presence on D are key for a team that is relatively undersized.

The other big man in Tech’s starting five is 6’11″ junior Dejan Kravic (No. 11), who transferred to Lubbock from York University in Ontario. Kravic has been very impressive in his short stint on the High Plains, showing off an old-school kind of game. He can use either hand in the post and has an incredibly soft touch on his numerous hook shots and floaters. Although his shot is unorthodox, it’s effective. At times, it can look like Kravic is almost pushing the ball over the rim and down into the basket.

At the point, Josh Gray (No. 5) has been very impressive at times, but has also had his share of freshman mistakes. Gray is lightning quick with the ball and can make passes when it looks like there is no opening, but he also tends to over-penetrate and sometimes forces shots against good defense or early in the shot clock. While it looks like Gray will be a very good point guard in the near future, at this point the results are still mixed.

Freshman Dusty Hannahs (No. 2) has worked his way into the starting lineup, earning the nod in all six Big 12 games so far. He was Player of the Year in Arkansas as a high school senior, and is Tech’s only real three-point threat this season. Hannahs has knocked down 39.4% of his long-range attempts, but is averaging just 6.5 points in his 19 minutes per game. Although he has shown the ability to drive and sink a floater in the lane, more than 68% of his buckets have come from behind the arc.

Junior Jamal Williams, Jr. (No. 23) is the final member of the starting five, hailing from Brooklyn. He arrived at Tech via the juco route, playing his first two seasons at Lake Land College in Illinois. Williams plays excellent perimeter defense, frustrating opposing guards who like to use dribble penetration. At 6’4″, he also provides some quality defensive rebounding from the wings, reclaiming more than 10% of opponents’ misses.

Off the bench, Tech relies on a trio of options in the backcourt. Daylen Robinson (No. 10) is another juco transfer who can give backup minutes at the point, but often plays out of control. His even assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:1 underscores that inconsistent level of play.

Toddrick Gotcher (No. 20) is still considered a freshman after playing just nine games last year and using his medical redshirt. He brings some length and strength to the perimeter in his 6’4″ frame.

Senior Ty Nurse (No. 4) is averaging just over 12 minutes per game and is having a very difficult final season. He averages less than a point each night and has made only 10.3% of his threes, a shocking drop from the 38.8% mark he posted as a junior. Nurse had made an immediate splash in Lubbock, scoring 29 points in his first game with Tech last year. He started 24 of the team’s 30 games and led the team in minutes played, so the drop-off in his senior year is surprising and disappointing.

Keys to the game

1) Deny second and third chances – The Longhorns still have the nation’s best defense, as measured by effective field-goal percentage. Unfortunately, their defensive efficiency has been killed by sending opponents to the line and allowing them too many offensive rebounds.

While Texas Tech is a very poor shooting team, they have shown a willingness to crash the glass and they extend possessions as a result. The Red Raiders have preferred to slow Big 12 games down, so the importance of each and every possession will be magnified tonight. Texas has to close out its defensive stops with rebounds, as a few second chance baskets here or there could be the difference in a low-scoring battle.

2) Protect the basketball – The first ten minutes of the Texas/Oklahoma game on Monday night looked like something out of Keystone Cops or a Buster Keaton film. The Longhorns coughed it up on eight of their first ten possessions, yet still remained in the game.

One thing the Tech defense actually does well is force turnovers, as the Red Raiders cause mistakes on 22.3% of their opponents possessions. As outlined above, this will be a low-possession game where every trip down the court will be crucial. Wasting possessions with miscues could keep the Longhorns winless in conference play.

3) Keep the bigs out of foul trouble – With Holmes out of commission, the Longhorn frontcourt will likely be a rotating cast of characters. Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh were caught biting on pump fakes against Romero Osby on Monday night, and the fouls piled up as a result.

Tech’s Kravic has proven to be a very crafty big man, so the Longhorn forwards cannot afford to make the same mistakes tonight. Ridley, Ibeh, Holmes, and Connor Lammert are going to have their hands full with Kravic, Tolbert, and Crockett, and having to play with foul trouble is only going to make things tougher. The youngsters need to play sound defense and stand tall in the hopes of avoiding dumb fouls underneath.