Posted by Ryan Clark at 12:44PM

Texas Longhorns (1-2) vs. Washington Huskies (3-1)
Imperial Arena | Paradise Island, Bahamas
Tip: 6 P.M. CT | TV: AXS (find your channel)
Vegas: Texas -3 | KenPom: Texas, 81-76 (66%)

In last night’s first round action at the Battle 4 Atlantis, the Texas Longhorns fell behind early against a Top 25 Texas A&M squad, and could never quite dig completely out of the hole. Despite multiple runs in the second half to get within one possession of the Aggies, Texas was repeatedly stifled by dagger threes and big plays from Texas A&M. As a result, the Longhorns fell into the loser’s bracket, setting up a rematch with Washington.

This is the second time the Longhorns and Huskies will play in less than two weeks, with both games coming outside of the United States. Texas has played its three games in three different countries and traveled more than 16,000 miles so far this season, with the Huskies logging more than 14,000 miles of their own.

The theme song for the first Texas/Washington game was “Yakety Sax”
(Photo credit: Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)

The first meeting

The season opener, at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, was a painful affair. Both teams played very sloppy basketball and found it difficult to adjust the new emphasis on calling textbook fouls that had been ignored in years past. The teams combined for 62 fouls and shot 88 free throws in a game that rarely had a few clean possessions strung together.

After a very slow start from both teams, Washington eventually built a small first-half lead Texas managed to eliminate by the break. The Huskies again slowly built their lead throughout the second half, holding a nine-point edge with just over 11 minutes to play. Isaiah Taylor and Demarcus Holland combined for the next 15 Texas points, as the Longhorns trimmed the deficit to just one point with five minutes left.

It was a nip-and-tuck one-possession affair for nearly the entire remainder of the game, including a pair of lead changes, but a missed transition three and a missed second attempt by Javan Felix near the one-minute mark proved to be Texas’ last gasp. The Longhorns failed to score in the final 2:09 of the game, and the Huskies iced it away at the free-throw line for a 77-71 victory.

Texas was plagued by an inability to secure defensive rebounds and loose balls that seemed to be right within their grasp, particularly when they needed stops down the stretch. The Huskies reclaimed 49% of their missed shots on the day and turned that into 21 second-chance points. Although the Longhorns have a bigger, stronger frontcourt, the quickness and athleticism of the young Washington team proved invaluable when chasing down the ball.

Shot selection was also a major issue for the Longhorns, with the team frequently settling for very long threes without any attempt at dribble penetration or ball movement. Washington plays a pressure defense — which resulted in quite a few fouls during the season opener — and it seemed that the Longhorns were frustrated enough to take open shots whenever they presented themselves, regardless of whether or not those shots actually should have been taken in that situation.

On paper, Texas was the clear favorite heading into the first game. They played a very poor game and were still in a position to win in the final minutes, but ultimately came up short. The Longhorns are still favored by both Vegas and Pomeroy in tonight’s game, albeit by a smaller margin than the first time around. If Texas can improve on some of its very frustrating shortcomings from the Pac-12 China Game, they should be able to enact revenge tonight.

Keys to the Game

1) Attack against the pressure – The Husky defense has proven that the high foul count in Shanghai was not an outlier, as indicated by their season free-throw rate of 51.5%. That statistic means that Washington gives up more than one free throw for every two field goal attempts, a rate that is currently 301st out of 351 Division I teams. In yesterday’s game against Gonzaga, the Huskies actually posted a defensive free throw-rate of 91.7%, which is nearly one free throw given for every shot.

Washington sent Kendal Yancy and Texas to the line frequently
(Photo credit: Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)

Texas found success against Washington when Taylor attacked, and they also found some very nice drives from Eric Davis and Demarcus Holland last night against Texas A&M when their ball movement gave the guards just enough space to blow by with a quick first step. Texas must not be frustrated by Washington’s pressure defense again tonight, and need to drive the ball immediately when they have an angle on the defender. When that angle isn’t there, quick ball movement will find them elsewhere, and will provide another opportunity for a slash to the rim.

In addition to earning extra trips to the line, relying on the backcourt may also help the Texas bigs, who have had issues establishing position without picking up offensive fouls. Rather than focus on pounding the ball down low and relying on Cameron Ridley and company to fight for position, repeatedly slashing to the rim should open things up for the bigs on dump-offs underneath, and hopefully keep them from riding pine thanks to offensive fouls.

2) Clean up the defensive glass – While the Longhorns clawed back against Washington in the second half of their first meeting, it seemed like every defensive stop was scuttled by a rebound that was snatched right out of a Texas player’s hands. Much of the Washington offense in their first four games has come from second-chance points, thanks to an offensive rebounding rate that is currently 5th-best in the nation.

Since many of the lost defensive rebounds seemed to be a result of being outworked or out-hustled, and not a result of repeatedly being out of position, it’s likely that Texas can make some improvements in that department tonight. The Huskies are not a great shooting team, and with so many freshman, they’ve also made some poor shot choices. If the Longhorns can win back more of the defensive boards tonight than they did in Shanghai, it will make a serious dent in Washington’s scoring chances.

3) Take advantage of Washington’s mistakes – In addition to bad shots, the Huskies have also made quite a few mistakes this year by just playing too quickly. The youngsters have thrown tons of errant passes in transition, with a fair number resulting in turnovers. They also tend to continue pushing when the break isn’t there, resulting in forced shots against a set defense. The poor shot selection is also a hidden form of turnover, as when the defense can win the rebound, those types of shots often lead to runouts the other way.

Washington had an incredibly rough start in Shanghai thanks to that sloppy play and an inability to finish some easy looks. Texas was unable to take advantage, however, and allowed Washington to claw their way to a lead midway through the first half. There will likely be quite a few freshman mistakes made by the Huskies tonight, so Texas must capitalize on them this time around. Whether that means extending a lead or charging back from a deficit, this Texas team cannot afford to stall out when Washington is giving them extra possessions.

Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:30AM

Texas Longhorns (1-1) vs. #25/NR Texas A&M Aggies (4-0)
Imperial Arena | Paradise Island, Bahamas
Tip: 6 P.M. CT | TV: AXS (find your channel)
Vegas: Texas A&M -3 | KenPom: Texas A&M, 74-72 (57%)

The break-up of the old Big 12 was a messy and very public affair, full of flirtation with other conferences, grandstanding, and even court orders. As often happens with bitter endings of long relationships, partners swore to never see each other again. Historic rivalries like Kansas-Mizzou, Nebraska-OU, and Texas-Texas A&M went by the wayside.

For the Longhorns and Aggies, that has meant that the teams haven’t met in basketball or football since the Texas hoops team won their final conference match-up in February of 2012. Despite friends — the media, legislators, even that random drunk at your favorite watering hole — imploring the two to get back together, the programs have held staunchly to their insistence that they just won’t do it.

With bowl games and the SEC-Big 12 Challenge not renewing the Lone Star rivalry over the last three years, it finally came down to an exempt November basketball tournament to break the ice. Sure, it’s on a channel nobody ever watches, and yes, it’s more than a thousand miles from either campus. In a sports remake of Forgetting Sarah Marshall that subs the Bahamas for Hawai’i, your personal allegiance probably dictates which school you think is Peter Bretter and which is Sarah, but the important thing is that Texas and A&M will finally be playing something again over Thanksgiving weekend.

If you hated that intro, I appreciate you sticking with me. There was another angle involving dysfunctional families coming together at Thanksgiving, but you’ll have to settle for Jason Segel. On to the hoops…

By the numbers

Billy Kennedy wants Utah to bring him two
(Photo credit: Patric Schneider/Associated Press)

Through their first four games, the Aggies have posted some eye-popping numbers. They haven’t played a team ranked higher than 242nd out of 351 Division I teams, according to Ken Pomeroy, so the Longhorns will provide the first real test for Texas A&M. Still, the Aggies managed to score in triple-digits in their first two ballgames, the first time the program had done that since the 90’s. Regardless of opponent, and even taking into account the offense-friendly rule changes, that’s still something worth noting.

In terms of raw offensive efficiency, the Aggies are currently ranked 11th in the nation, scoring 1.24 points per possession through their first four games. Their raw tempo clocks in just a hair under 75 possessions per game, while their effective field-goal percentage of 64.5% is third in the nation. That eFG is driven by a scorching three-point attack, with the Aggies draining more than 47% of their long-range attempts, and scoring nearly a third of their points from behind the arc.

To date, the only weaknesses of the Aggie offense have been ball control and free throws. Texas A&M has turned it over on 21% of their possessions, although they did manage to cough it up on just 13.4% of their possessions in their most recent game, against UNC-Asheville. From the charity stripe, the Aggies have made just 67% of their free throws, although that number is buoyed by an outlier performance against TAMU-Corpus Christi, in which the Ags made their first 22 freebies, and missed only a pair in the final minute.

Defensively, Texas A&M has been solid. It’s difficult to know how much stock to put into their defensive numbers, as they’ve played some teams that are clearly outclassed, but the eye test shows that they are well-coached. The Aggies have an adjusted defensive efficiency that is Top 25 in Division I, and they’ve forced opponents into a 23.3% turnover rate, also a number that ranks in the Top 25.

The only defensive number that has even been average through the first four games for A&M is a free-throw rate of 40.8%, meaning that the Aggies give opponents roughly two free throws for every five field goal attempts. The Longhorns are a much bigger group than any squad that Texas A&M has faced to date, so that trend is likely to continue tonight.

Meet the Aggies

Texas A&M has looked like a well-oiled machine in its first four games, thanks in large part to an August exhibition trip through Europe in which the team played four games. The Aggies have a solid mix of returning players and an excellent recruiting class, and the extra practices and competition gave the team a chance to work out the kinks.

As a result, the team already looks great on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Aggies immediately look up after closing out a defensive possession, hoping to find easy points in transition. If the defense can get back and stop Texas A&M from chalking up fast-break points, the Aggies move the ball quickly and try to catch their opponents scrambling on the secondary break. In possessions where the Aggies have to settle for half-court sets, they make smart passes to find their shooters open looks, or to set up their solid post players in good position.

That high-powered offense starts with senior transfer Anthony Collins (No. 11; 6’1″), who comes to College Station from USF. Although Collins is a quick point guard in a more traditional mold, he also can knock down the outside shot when defenders are napping on the perimeter. Collins is averaging one triple per game, and has made 66% of his limited long-range attempts this year.

With Collins at the point, that allows senior do-everything guard Alex Caruso (No. 21; 6’5″) to move to his more natural position off the ball. Caruso displayed fantastic court vision when he was the team’s point guard over the last few seasons, and he’s still making great feeds this year. Without the need to run the offense, he’s also shown an ability to get the corner and drive to the bucket, where he has a knack for finishing even the toughest of looks.

Defensively, Caruso is a pest. He consistently has his hands up to limit angles, and does a great job timing his breaks to zip into passing lanes and steal the ball. He tied for the SEC lead in steals-per-game last year, averaging an even two per contest, and his steal rate through four games is currently ranked 43rd in Division I.

Danuel House can score from anywhere on the floor
(Photo credit: Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle)

On the wing, senior Danuel House (No. 23; 6’7″) is a scoring machine. This season, he’s been more perimeter-oriented, with roughly 70% of his attempts coming from behind the arc. Although House has made more than 41% of his three-point attempts this year, his game is much more than that. House has no qualms about taking a 17-footer after getting a defender airborne on the perimeter, and has the midrange game to make them pay. His quickness and explosiveness also make him a constant threat to get to the rim when defenses pressure him at the arc.

Joining House on the wing is senior Jalen Jones (No. 12; 6’7″), who will be making his season debut tonight after sitting out four games for playing in two closed scrimmages at SMU before transferring in the fall of 2013. Texas A&M wisely scheduled four non-conference games prior to the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, allowing their slashing senior a chance to come back for the entire tournament, rather than missing a game or two of it.

Jones is expected to once again join the starting lineup, but it remains to be seen whether Coach Billy Kennedy elects to go with two traditional bigs to match the size of Texas, giving them length from positions two through five, or if Jones is slotted in as an undersized four.

If the Aggies go with a pair of 6’7″ wings, they’ll really be able to stretch the floor when Tonny Trocha-Morelos (No. 10; 6’10”) is on the court. The sophomore from Colombia was already known as a solid rebounder and a defensive presence, but he’s upped his game this year with great passing and a newfound outside threat. Trocha started all four games for the Aggies and drained 6-of-9 threes, all coming in the last three contests. On top of adding a three-point shot to his repertoire, Trocha has also posted an assist rate of nearly 25% this season with a barrage of slick high-low passes.

With Jalen Jones back from suspension, it may be freshman Tyler Davis (No. 34; 6’10”) that loses a spot in the starting lineup. Davis was part of Plano West’s state title team, and he clearly plays beyond his years. Davis has really nice footwork for a true freshman and has been able to finish through contact in his first four games. Davis definitely needs some work on his conditioning, and it still remains to be seen if he’ll be strong enough to finish against major-conference opponents, but his early performances have been impressive.

Another impressive freshman in A&M’s stellar 2015 class is DJ Hogg (No. 1; 6’8″), who was also a member of that Plano West title team with Davis. Hogg’s size and outside threat give the Aggies a ton of lineup versatility off the bench, and it makes him a tough cover. Hogg is second on the team in three-point attempts behind House, but his 47.6% success rate is tops on the squad. Even though he’s a great outside shooter, the freshman doesn’t just camp out on the perimeter, often making fantastic cuts to the rack. He’s also great at finding space on the break, and is a big reason why their transition game is so potent.

The Aggies also have a pair of reserves inside that will help them do battle with the size of the Longhorn frontcourt. Bahamian junior Tavario Miller (No. 42; 6’7″) will surely have a good crowd in attendance. Although the offense drops off considerably when he’s on the floor, Miller knows how to use his body in the post, and is a solid rebounder and defender. Freshman Elijah Thomas (No. 15; 6’9″) is still unpolished, but has shown the ability to score with both hands in the post, and will likely be a difference-maker in future seasons, once the frontcourt logjam has cleared out.

The final member of A&M’s core rotation is freshman combo guard Admon Gilder (No. 3; 6’3″). Although Gilder can run the point, with both Anthony Collins and Caruso in front of him on the depth chart, he’s mostly seen action off the ball. He’s made 47.1% of his threes this season — second-best on the team — and harasses opposing guards on the defensive end.

Keys to the Game

1. Limit transition damage – Tonight’s match-up is one between two teams that like to push the tempo, but Texas A&M has proven to be more consistent on the offensive end. Although the Aggies have yet to face tough competition, they have been much more disciplined than the Longhorns.

Let it be clear, simply stopping the transition attack won’t be enough against A&M. Their offense is well-coached and their players will find good looks in half-court sets or on the secondary break. However, if this games becomes a true track meet with transition points lighting up the scoreboard, it seems highly unlikely that Texas can keep up.

Shaka Smart saw growth in his team’s second game
(Photo credit: Ralph Barrera/Austin American-Statesman)

2. Improve shot selection – Coach Shaka Smart told reporters on Monday that he has four categories for his team’s shots — great, good, decent, and bad. While shot selction has left quite a bit to be desired through the team’s first two games, Smart was pleased that the team took better shots in their second game.

As a result, three-point percentage went way up, and the team’s raw offensive efficiency increased by nearly 12%. The Longhorns took less shots off the dribble and found open teammates for good looks. Their assist ratio from the Washington game to the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi game jumped from roughly 25% to more than 56%. That wasn’t only a reflection on the level of opponent; team basketball and improved shot selection played a huge role.

Texas A&M plays sound defense that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate, and they will spring traps when the ball is moved to bad positions on the floor. Couple their frustrating defense with the likelihood that this game is played at a very high tempo, and it would be very easy for the Longhorns to again fall into the trap of taking quick, poor shots. To keep up with an efficient Texas A&M team, the Longhorns must build upon their most recent performance, and avoid regressing to the type of isolation basketball they played in Shanghai.

3. Steal possessions – The trademark of Shaka Smart basketball is stingy defense that generates extra possessions and easy buckets for his offense. Through the first two games, the Longhorns haven’t relied on much high-pressure defense, but have still managed to post a respectable 20.2% turnover mark.

A few miles down the road, the Aggies coughed up quite a few possessions in their first three games, with many of the errors unforced. Although Texas A&M can make Texas pay if they over-extend on defense, the opportunity is certainly there for the Longhorns to eke out a few extra possessions by winning the turnover battle. If the Longhorns can apply pressure at the right times and force Texas A&M into making its usual type of mistakes, they should be able to stay in this game and be in a position to move into the winner’s bracket.

Posted by Ryan Clark at 3:53PM

Texas Longhorns (0-0) vs. Washington Huskies (0-0)
Mercedes-Benz Arena | Shanghai, China | Tip: 9 P.M. CT | TV: ESPN
Vegas: Texas -11 | KenPom: Texas, 76-67 (80%)

Although it may have seemed a bit longer than usual for Texas fans this year, the college basketball offseason is finally over. With football results inconsistent and excitement surrounding the start of the Shaka Smart era at UT, anticipation for college hoops in Austin is higher than it has been in nearly a decade.

Texas returns the bulk of its roster from the 2014-15 season, having lost only Jonathan Holmes and Myles Turner to graduation and the NBA draft, respectively. But even with so much returning talent, the arrival of a new coach and a new style of play have surrounded this year’s team with question marks.

How will a formidable Texas frontcourt fit into Smart’s famous “Havoc” system? Will the incoming freshmen finally end the offensive woes of the last few years? Just how will the Longhorns split up the minutes with such a deep bench?

While Texas fans will be able to start answering those questions in just a few hours, Washington fans have just as many — if not more — about their own team. After a disappointing 33-30 record over the last two seasons, coach Lorenzo Romar bid adieu to all but three of last year’s scholarship players in a transfer epidemic. Rather than panic and sign anyone just to fill out a roster, the Huskies instead brought in one of the nation’s best recruiting classes to restock the cupboard.

It was clearly time for a reboot in Seattle, and the roster full of fresh faces certainly provides the Huskies an opportunity to chart a new course. In Washington’s exhibition against Seattle Pacific, Romar started four freshmen, and his newcomers played 77% of the team’s minutes. Although it’s probably a safe bet that the young Huskies will employ a smaller, more athletic lineup this season, it’s still a mystery what that rotation will look like in the season opener.

Keys to the Game

1. Exploit the advantage inside – In the exhibition game, Texas was without Shaq Cleare and Connor Lammert, who are both available for the season opener. Lacking depth in the frontcourt, the Longhorns played for much of the contest with just one big. Cameron Ridley looked incredibly confident, moving quickly with the ball in the post, and he dominated the glass against a smaller Tarleton State squad.

With the Huskies expected to trot out a smaller lineup, the Longhorns again have an opportunity to control the post. The size and depth of the Texas frontcourt should give them a significant scoring and rebounding edge, regardless of whether they elect for the traditional approach of two big men, or the option of smaller, more athletic four. If the Longhorns can capitalize on that with points in the paint and strong rebounding percentages, Washington will have a tough time keeping up.

2. Keep the starting backcourt on the floor – The Longhorns will be the much more experienced team on Saturday morning in Shanghai, with junior Isaiah Taylor and senior Demarcus Holland leading the way in the backcourt. Although newcomer Kerwin Roach is more than capable of handling the basketball in the absence of the two upperclassmen, their leadership will be important in a game environment that is going to be completely abnormal. Taylor picked up some frustrating fouls in the exhibition game by trying to be aggressive in the wrong spots, so today he must avoid putting himself on the bench with needless fouls.

3. Grab control early – The game starts at 11 A.M. on Saturday here in Shanghai, a tip time that is notoriously bad for college kids. It can be hard for players to get fired up for a morning game, and playing in front of an unaffiliated crowd that may be sparse will make that even tougher. The fans that do show up will likely root for baskets more than teams, so if Texas can avoid the morning slump and put some immediate points on the board, they may be able to create their own energy in a very unconventional setting.

Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:29AM

It’s the final Saturday of college basketball’s regular season, with a handful of leagues already knee-deep in their post-season tournaments. For the Longhorns, the calculus at this point is fairly simple — a win today against Kansas State and versus Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament would likely get them in. An additional win in the tournament quarterfinals against Baylor, Iowa State, or Oklahoma would practically guarantee a bid.

Of course, Texas’ results don’t happen in a vacuum. If other bubble teams perform well, a 20-win season without an additional Top 50 RPI win might not be enough. On the other side of the coin, if the bubble teams falter and no bid thieves emerge in middle-tier conferences, the Longhorns can breathe even easier if they take care of their own business.

For a full look at all of Texas’ bubble competition, check out the table below. It includes all teams currently seeded 10th or lower by the composite Bracket Matrix, which was last updated after Thursday’s games, plus their First Four Out. The teams at the very bottom of the table are essentially dead in the water at this point, but we’ve been tracking them for a few weeks, so why stop now?

The asterisks next to a team’s name denote how many of the wins in their “W-L” column came against opponents not in Division I, which won’t count when the committee gets down to selecting and seeding teams. You’ll also see an asterisk in the “100+ Ls” column next to Tulsa, which does actually mean that they lost to a D-II school. All RPI numbers and records vs. RPI segments are updated through last night’s games.

The “KP W-L” column is a prediction of a team’s final regular-season record, according to Ken Pomeroy’s magical computers. The lone exception to that is BYU, who is already playing in their league tournament. Pomeroy only predicts games that are currently scheduled, so for the Cougars, we added a 2-1 record in the conference, assuming that chalk holds and BYU loses to Gonzaga in the WCC title game.

If you have a lot of free time on Saturday and an affinity for average college basketball, the viewer’s guide below should come in handy. The current RPI of each bubble team’s opponent is listed in parentheses, but since the Purdue-Illinois game matches up two bubblers, both team’s RPI ranks are included.

Saturday Viewer’s Guide

NC State vs. Syracuse (63) – 11 A.M. CT, CBS
Indiana vs. Michigan State (20) – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN
Pitt at Florida State (120) – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN2
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (225) – 11 A.M. CT, Watch ESPN
LSU at Arkansas (15) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN
Texas A&M vs. Alabama (90) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court and Watch ESPN
Temple vs. UConn (76) – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN2
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph’s (175) – 1 P.M. CT, No TV
UMass at George Washington (81) – 2:30 P.M. CT, NBC Sports Network
Texas vs. Kansas State (80) – 3 P.M. CT, ESPN2
Stanford at Arizona (7) – 3 P.M. CT, CBS
Purdue (61) vs. Illinois (57) – 3:30 P.M. CT, Big 10 Network
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky (104) – 4:30 P.M. CT, American Sports Network (Regional)
Davidson at Duquesne (223) – 6 P.M. CT, A-10 Network ($)
Boise State vs. Fresno State (186) – 7 P.M. CT, Watch ESPN
Richmond vs. Saint Louis (259) – 7 P.M. CT, A-10 Network ($)
Colorado State at Utah State (132) – 8 P.M. CT, ROOT Sports Rocky Mountain
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (99) – 8 P.M. CT, SEC Network
BYU N-vs. Santa Clara (201) – 10 P.M. CT, ESPN2

Posted by Ryan Clark at 11:32AM

Bubble teams listed in bold.

Looking for a quality win (vs. T100 RPI)
Rhode Island at La Salle – 11:30 A.M. CT, NBC Sports Network
Ole Miss at LSU – 1 P.M. CT, Fox Sports Net (Regional)
North Carolina at Miami – 1 P.M. CT, CBS
Texas at Kansas – 4 P.M. CT, ESPN
George Washington at Davidson – 6 P.M. CT, TWC Sports (Regional)
Tulsa at Memphis – 7 P.M. CT, ESPNU
Boise State at San Diego State – 7 P.M. CT, ESPN2
BYU at Gonzaga – 9 P.M. CT, ESPN2

Trying to avoid a bad loss (vs. 100+ RPI)
Missouri at Georgia – 11 A.M. CT, ESPNU
NC State at Boston College – 11 A.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/Watch ESPN
Cincinnati at Tulane – 1 P.M. CT, ESPN News
Fordham at UMass – 3 P.M. CT, A10 Network ($)
Old Dominion at North Texas – 4:30 P.M. CT, American Sports Network (Regional)
Northwestern at Illinois – 6 P.M. CT, Big Ten Network
Auburn at Texas A&M – 7:30 P.M. CT, SEC Network

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