TV: ESPN2, 8 PM Central

The road ahead to Stillwater looks to be a treacherous and icy one, so it looks like we’re going to have to get an early start and take it slowly. With that in mind, I’m going to save the Oklahoma post-game for later this week and do a double-dip with the Okie State postgame. Here’s a look ahead at tonight’s game.

The Longhorns (13-3 overall, 3-0 in Big 12) have moved up to #21 in this week’s AP poll, while they have once again cracked the USA Today Coaches poll, coming in at 23rd. Those rankings could be short-lived, however, as the team takes on its first real Big 12 test in the #12/#14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-2, 1-1).

Unfortunately for Horn fans, the Cowboys present a huge matchup problem. They have a very solid frontcourt that is going to get a huge chunk of points in this contest. The star is Mario Boggan, who is averaging 21.1 points per game and 7.4 rebounds. He is coming off of a very poor game against the Kansas Jayhawks, in which he had only eight points while turning it over five times and not securing a single rebound. Based on Boggan’s presence and our lack of an inside game, I would expect Texas to be running a lot of zone in this ballgame. Hopefully the Horns can keep him from having a huge bounce-back game, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

Joining Boggan in the Cowboys’ strong frontcourt is center Kenny Cooper. While he is only averaging 3.8 rebounds per game, he is an absolute beast on the offensive glass. He is grabbing 17.7% of his offensive rebounding chances according to Ken Pomeroy, which is good for seventh individually in the entire nation. Cooper’s numbers are actually a bit deflated because he was not the starter until Obi Muonelo went down in December. Damion James and Kevin Durant are going to have their hands full snatching their defensive boards from this vacuum.

JamesOn Curry is back for Sean Sutton’s Cowboys, and he’s looking much more like the budding star we saw back in 2004-05. He’s eating up the most minutes for Oklahoma State, playing about 35 a game. JamesOn Trial is also the team’s second-leading scorer, dumping in 18.5 a night, although that average has dipped to sixteen a game in OSU’s two Big 12 games.

Junior Marcus Dove is likely going to be shadowing Kevin Durant all night, as he is really only on the court for defensive purposes. On the offensive end, Dove is a huge liability, turning over the ball 37% of the time he touches it and only averaging 6.2 points a game. He is definitely going to have his hands full with KD, but he will also certainly be one of the best defenders that Durant has had to take on thus far.

Oklahoma State has two weaknesses — depth and ballhandling. In particular, sophomore guard Byron Eaton and Dove have a tendency to turn the ball over. Kansas exploited this in their 30-point pounding, forcing the Cowboys to turn it over 20 times. Texas should look to do the same and try to capitalize with a bunch of transition buckets.

The lack of depth on the Cowboys bench will be a bit harder to exploit because of the weakness of Texas’ own bench. The Cowboys only really run seven deep now that they have lost Muonelo, although Adarius Bowman joined the team after the football season and gives them a few extra minutes off the end of the bench. Texas has a severe drop-off in talent between the starting five and sixth man Connor Atchley, so while depth is a glaring problem for OSU, it is just as bad or worse for the Horns.

Texas needs to look to push the tempo in this ballgame and keep it from settling into a half-court affair. While Oklahoma State also tends to play an uptempo game, their big men would likely dominate on both ends of the floor if the offenses settle into their sets on a regular basis.

Personally, I’d love to see a win in Stillwater, especially considering I’ve witnessed Longhorn losses on the two visits I’ve made to Gallagher-Iba Arena. But having Boggan inside concerns me with the lack of an opposing post presence in the burnt orange and white.

Having seen this team survive against a rabid road crowd in Tennessee — the final two minute brain freeze notwithstanding — I think that they will hold their own in the noise machine of GIA. If they can dictate the pace and style, the Longhorns should have a shot. And on the road, that’s about all you can ever ask for.

The pick: The gut and the brain are pointing at Boggan and picking the Pokes. But the heart and its burnt-orange blood supply just can’t pick against Kevin Durant quite yet. Texas survives an incredible test, keeps an undefeated conference mark, and exorcises my own Gallagher-Iba demons.