Texas returns home after a lopsided mid-week road loss to Texas A&M, hoping to rebound against Baylor this afternoon. In previous years, that would be just what the doctor ordered — beat up on the Bears, pad the stats, and move on to another conference test. But not any longer. This Baylor team is one of the league’s best and is the first one in school history to play Texas with a national ranking in hand.

Evidence of Scott Drew’s turnaround on the Waco campus could be seen last season, as Baylor took Texas down to the wire in all three games last season. That included a near-upset in the Big 12 Tournament where the Bears built a 20-point lead in the second half, but were overcome by the heroics of Kevin Durant and Craig Winder. This year, close enough isn’t good enough for Baylor, and they want to announce their legitimacy with a huge road win in Austin.

By the numbers

Baylor is a very solid team on both sides of the ball, with both offense and defense better on the perimeter. The Bears have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.3, while holding opponents to 93.4 points per 100 possessions. Baylor finds a lot of success in both departments by forcing turnovers and pushing the break, as 25% of their offense this season comes off of the transition game, according to Coach Drew.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears maintain great ball control with a turnover percentage (TO/possessions) that is 16th best in the entire nation. Scott Drew starts three solid guards and has two exciting younger ones that come off the bench, so forcing the issue will not be easy for the Texas defense.

Those guards are also great at guarding the three-point line, and they will make it difficult for D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams to get going from long range. Baylor can be absolutely abused inside, though, as Oklahoma proved in their win on Saturday. The Sooner post play was so troublesome that the Bears switched to a 2-3 zone to stop the bleeding, so if Texas can establish inside play perhaps they can open up their outside shooters this way.

The starters

Austin native Curtis Jerrells is the team’s leading scorer and one of the three excellent guards for the Bears. He’s started all 19 games for Baylor this season and averages 14.4 points per game. As is the case with all of the BU backcourt players, he’s quick with the ball, has great handles, and can attack the rim off the bounce. He’s a pretty good shooter from long range, too, but is overshadowed by some even better sharpshooters on the roster.

Aaron Bruce is benefiting from a more balanced Baylor attack this year. Without having to carry the entire team on his back, he has exhibited better shot selection and become an even more efficient scorer. He only plays 25 minutes a game this year, leaving him with fresh legs late in the games. He’s the best three-point shooting starter for the Bears, knocking them down at a scary 42.4% clip.

The other starting guard for Coach Drew is Henry Dugat, who is averaging 12.1 points per game coming into this one. Like Jerrells and Bruce, Dugat can attack the paint and score, or shoot it in your eye from behind the arc, where he’s hitting at 37% on the year.

The key big man down low is Kevin Rogers, and he is picking up the trash for Baylor in the paint. He’s the team’s leading scorer and seems to quietly rack up his points each game on putbacks and tip-ins. The Bears don’t have a ton off assists on the books, but the ones they often record come after one of the guards draws a collapsing defense in the lane and leaves the bigs wide open down low under the rim.

Josh Lomers is improving in his second season on the Brazos, but he still looks a bit raw. He reminds me a lot of Connor Atchley in his first two years, in that the kid clearly has potential but isn’t fully realizing it yet. Lomers was an absolute stud back at Boerne High, but the post players in high-level D1 basketball are a far cry from the poor kids he was abusing back in mid-level UIL play.

Off the bench

Tweety Carter is the smallest guy on the court for Baylor, and possibly the fastest. He can knock it down from anywhere, and was the leading all-time scorer in Louisiana high school history. His three-point percentage is a sky-high 43.3%, but teams that play up in his jersey will find him blowing by for an easy layup.

The other solid guard off the bench is freshman LaceDarius Dunn, another long-range dead-eye who is also a 43.3% shooter behind the arc. I know it sounds like a broken record, but Dunn is another quick one who is going to cause problems for the tired Texas guards when he comes in well-rested off the bench.

Delbert Simpson and Mamadou Diene are key reserves in the Baylor frontcourt, with walk-on Mark Shepherd earning some minutes as well. All three are still pretty unrefined, although Diene’s post defense can change the flow of a game. He’s a really long kid down under the rim, and he loves to block shots with authority. Offensively, he’s not much to write home about, but if Texas doesn’t stay on the boards, he’s going to get some garbage buckets.

Shepherd does all the little things right, much like former high school teammate Ian Mooney. He moves well without the ball, sets good screens, and hustles all over the place. He only averages two points a game, and if you see him shoot, you’ll understand why. But he’s something of a glue guy when the starters need a breather, and he’s fundamentally sound.

Simpson, a JuCo transfer, has really soft hands in the paint but often seems a little too excited with the ball. He’ll force shots that aren’t there instead of looking for the open man, and sometimes shuffles his feet in his rush to get the ball off. If Texas emphasizes the post game for a third-straight contest, he’ll likely be relied on for minutes when the Baylor bigs get into foul trouble.

What to look for

The key in this one is going to be limiting the Baylor three-pointers. For a Texas team who doesn’t like to guard the perimeter with any consistency, this will be a tall order. The Bears can quickly take the home crowd out of it with a long-range barrage, and they have made a ton of runs from deep deficits this year simply by riding the three-ball. Texas cannot afford to give up open looks downtown, and need to force Rogers and Diene to beat them down low.

For Texas, they need to try to expose the weakness inside for Baylor. Dexter Pittman should get a bunch of minutes again and needs to be fed the ball to take advantage of the Bears’ post D. If Rick Barnes doesn’t follow through on his threats to bench Damion James, DaMo will need to crash the glass and give another double-double performance.

And finally, if this game is close, Texas needs to improve from the line. The Bears lead the Big 12 from the line, hitting 73% of their attempts at the charity stripe. As has been well documented, the Horns haven’t been able to consistently hit free throws since early December. If the game is decided by a few points, this free throw disparity could unfortunately give the edge to the Bears. And when you consider that all three of the Baylor losses have been by seven points or less, the chances are good for another close one today.

As of 5 P.M. yesterday, there were still 1,000 tickets left for this one. I suspect that walk-up crowds will make it a sell-out, but if you’re thinking of catching the game, please come down to the Drum. If you happen to stay home, check out the affiliate list that’s linked at the top of this post to see which of your local networks will be carrying this ESPN+ telecast.