After the loss to Baylor on Saturday, ESPN’s Pat Forde welcomed Texas to “the crisis zone.” While an 18-3 record is certainly not something to panic over, there is no doubt that if the Longhorns still have any designs on a Big 12 title or a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament, their slide has to end here.

Unfortunately for Texas, their next match-up will not be an easy one. Gallagher-Iba Arena is not a place where opponents often find a win, but it’s been especially tough for ranked Longhorn teams. When Texas travels to GIA with a number next to their name, they are just 1-6.

By the numbers

There isn’t anything that Oklahoma State does exceptionally well, but they aren’t particularly bad at any facet of the game, either. With the exception of their loss to Missouri on Saturday, the Pokes are best at controlling the basketball, which is important for what is a rather small team. Thanks to their smaller lineup, Oklahoma State can sometimes have trouble earning offensive rebounds. As a result, limiting the number of turnovers is key to keeping their offense clicking.

If tonight’s game comes down to free throws, the Cowboys have a distinct advantage. While Texas is shooting just 61.3% from the charity stripe, Oklahoma State is significantly better with a 71.4% mark. Fortunately for the Longhorns, Coach Travis Ford has quite a short bench on his sideline, so he can’t afford to waste fouls trying to make Texas earn its points from the line.

One other statistic of note is that the Cowboys take more than 39% of their shots from behind the arc. While the Longhorns have a very strong interior defense, it is often at the expense of their perimeter D, and OSU is a team will certainly try to take advantage of it. Luckily, they are shooting just 33.5% from behind the arc, so unless they have a banner day from three-point range, the Pokes will need points from other places to pull off the upset.

Meet the Cowboys

The undeniable star of Oklahoma State’s lineup is junior guard James Anderson. With 22.5 points per game, he’s responsible for 30% of the team’s scoring. There’s no way Texas will completely shut down the sweet-shooting guard for 40 minutes, so the Horns will have to make sure they don’t allow the other Cowboys to beat them.

Senior Obi Muonelo is an all-around threat for Oklahoma State, despite checking in at just 6’5”. He’s a scrappy rebounder and a quality ballhandler, although at times he tends to play a little out of the control when trying to drive the lane. During his four years, Muonelo has also developed an outside shot to compliment his inside and mid-range games. So far this season, he’s leading the team with a 46% mark from the perimeter. Besides the out-of-control drives, the only other knock on Obi’s game is his pitiful 55% free throw shooting.

Freshman Ray Penn was one of the top point guard recruits in the country this spring, but he likely will not be in action tonight. Team doctors discovered a “hot spot” on his shin that they believe could develop into a stress fracture, so Penn sat out the Missouri game as a precaution. Since the only treatment is rest, Penn will likely miss a handful of games.

With Penn and his thirty minutes per game now out of the rotation, tiny sharpshooter Keiton Page is helping to pick up the slack at the point. Page is the kind of feisty, hustle guy who just irritates the hell out of opponents and their fans. He’s always chasing down loose balls, and is an incredible shooter that seems to always knock down a three in the clutch.

Another player picking up more minutes at the point is freshman Fred Gulley, a product of Fayetteville, Arkansas. Like the injured starter Penn, Gulley is a lightning-quick guard who tends to score more than dish out assists. Coach Ford wants both of his freshman points to work on their decision making and develop into facilitators, but there is no question that Gulley is already an offensive threat. His quick first step might even make the defensively-sound Texas backcourt look a bit slow at times tonight.

In the middle, Marshall Moses chews up most of the minutes and grabs most of the rebounds. He’s averaging 9.9 boards to go with his 10.6 points per game, which is even more impressive when you consider how often he is in foul trouble. Moses has only fouled out of two games this year, but he’s averaging nearly four whistles per game. That limits him to just 27 minutes per contest, the least amount of playing time among the five starters.

When he’s on the floor, Moses has a nice set of offensive tools. He’s solid around the basket, has a good midrange jumper that is excellent for busting zones, and he’s playing some stiff post D as of late. The Cowboys don’t have a ton of depth down low, so Texas would be wise to attack Moses early and often in the hopes of piling up fouls.

Backing up Moses is transfer Matt Pilgrim, a hard-nosed big man who is coming off his best game of the year. Pilgrim started his career at Hampton, but transferred to Kentucky to play for Billy Gillispie. When John Calipari took over head coaching duties, Pilgrim suddenly found himself without a scholarship offer. The NCAA wisely offered him a chance to transfer elsewhere and play right away, giving the Cowboys an immediate injection of talent in the post.

Pilgrim isn’t a flashy player, but he is built like a tank. Down low, he’s a bull of a forward that will pick up a ton of points on putbacks. Against Missouri, he scored 21 points in just 23 minutes off the bench as he relieved the foul-plagued Moses. Tonight, he will likely be needed for another quality performance against a much bigger Texas team.

Freshman Roger Franklin is the only other Oklahoma State player who sees significant minutes. As a high school teammate of Texas’ Shawn Williams at Duncanville, Franklin started all four years. He’s a very athletic guy, but still needs to develop the body to compete in the physical Big 12. With his twelve minutes per game during his freshman campaign, he’s logging the experience necessary to make him a major threat in future seasons.

Keys to the game

Against a smaller Oklahoma State, Texas must dominate the rebounding battle. The Cowboys aren’t going to cough the ball up that often, so the best way for the Longhorns to limit scoring chances is to prevent offensive rebounds.

As we’ve already mentioned, Anderson will get his points tonight. There have been a few teams that have shut him down for the first half, but he always comes out of the locker room firing. While Texas obviously can’t concede a 40-point night to the guard, the Longhorns should be more concerned with limiting the damage from the other Pokes. This will really hinge on whether or not Dogus Balbay, Justin Mason, and Avery Bradley can play serviceable D on Anderson.

Finally, the Longhorns simply have to control the basketball. There have been a rash of dumb turnovers in the last two Texas losses, and nothing gets a road crowd more riled up than a bunch of easy transition buckets. The Longhorns cannot afford to give up possessions by making stupid mistakes, and the young team also can’t afford to let the crowd fuel big runs. There is no question that crowd energy played a part in the losses to UConn and Kansas State.

The big finish

Already two games behind the Jayhawks in the league standings, Texas honestly can’t afford to lose any more games if there are any hopes of winning a conference title. Kansas simply doesn’t lose at Allen Fieldhouse, and their only “tough” road tests left are at Missouri and next Monday night in Austin. (Texas Tech fans will point out that Lubbock has also been a house of horrors for the ‘Hawks, but we generally laugh at Tech fans and wave dismissively when they start talking about basketball.)

With another road game on Saturday in Norman and the aforementioned Kansas game waiting on Monday, this stretch of schedule could be deadly for the Longhorns. As much as a game can be “must win” when a team is 18-3, this game is that. Texas absolutely needs to steal a road win tonight.