If there were ever a prototypical “trap game”, tonight’s tangle with Oklahoma State in Stillwater would be it. The Longhorns are coming off of their biggest regular-season win in school history, a road upset of the 2nd-ranked Kansas Jayhawks that vaulted Texas to first place in the Big 12. This Saturday, the Horns will host a Missouri team that was ranked in the top ten as recently as two weeks ago.

But tonight, Texas must first tackle a young, tough Oklahoma State team in a gym that can be very difficult to steal road wins in. The Cowboys have won 13 straight at Gallagher-Iba Arena, with the most recent loss coming against Texas last season. If the Horns have a letdown after Saturday’s big win or look ahead to the Tigers, they could easily be tagged with a loss tonight.

By the numbers

Glancing at Dean Oliver’s Four Factors, the Cowboys are generally unremarkable. They aren’t exceptional in any category, but also manage to avoid being particularly terrible at any facet of the game. The one factor they do excel in is free throw rate, as OSU earns nearly one free throw attempt for every two field goal tries. Their 45% FTR puts them 34th in the nation.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys tend to put opponents on the line even more than they get therethemselves. OSU opponents have a FTR of 46.3%, and have been converting at an impressive 72.9% rate. The Pokes should get a bit of a break from a Texas team that has struggled at the line all season. Of course, the Horns made 83% of their free throws in a pair of games against A&M and KU last week, so OSU could be catching Texas at the wrong time.

The most surprising number the Cowboys have posted this year is a disappointing 31.2% mark behind the arc. On a team with sharpshooting Keiton Page in the backcourt, that number is far too low. But without James Anderson on the roster this season, Page is drawing a lot of extra attention from defenses, and his three-point percentage has dropped to 35.1% as a result.

When it comes to tempo, Oklahoma State is once again average. They run a slightly slower pace than the D-I average, but they certainly wouldn’t be classified as a “burn” offense. The Longhorns average just 1.5 more possessions per game, so there is hardly any difference in style between the two teams. That being said, it still could benefit Texas to push things against Oklahoma State. The Horns have a more-efficient offense, so adding possessions only serves to further exploit that advantage.

Meet the Cowboys

Coach Travis Ford has a young team to work with this season, and following the December surgery on guard Fred Gulley, he has a short bench to manage, too. The Cowboys run eight deep, although Ford has been giving more minutes to his younger players as the season wears on, hoping to provide some experience for his bench.

OSU is led by senior Marshall Moses, who is one of the most-improved players in the Big 12 this year. He’s turned into a double-double machine in his senior campaign, and is averaging more than 15 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Moses gets the bulk of his points down low, and he still looks stiff trying to take a midrange jumper, but there’s no doubt that he’s the key to OSU’s success.

Joining Moses in the frontcourt is Darrell Williams, a juco transfer who played at Midland College before making the trip to Stillwater. He’s a real force inside, and would likely be the team’s leading rebounder if he could keep himself out of foul trouble. Williams is averaging more than seven boards a game, but has been limited to just 20 minutes a game thanks to those foul issues. Against Kansas State, Williams fouled out in roughly five minutes on the court.

Matt Pilgrim is the other big man for Coach Ford, and he started 11 games this year before being supplanted by Williams in the starting five. Pilgrim isn’t nearly the scoring threat that Moses is, mostly due to the fact that Pilgrim seems averse to attacking the basket. He has the post moves to score, but has to be constantly reminded by his coaches to actually put them to use. Fortunately for OSU, even when he’s not scoring, Pilgrim has active hands on defense and leads the team in steals.

While OSU has a talented frontcourt, albeit a thin one, the future of the team is clearly in the backcourt. Junior Keiton Page is the second-leading scorer on the team with 13.8 points per game, but he has been a streaky scorer this season. After pouring in a combined 43 points against Alabama and Stanford, Page managed just four against Gonzaga and UTSA. The Longhorns can’t afford to give him open looks tonight, but if they are able to front him and frustrate him early, he could have a quiet game.

The most impressive guard for OSU has been Jéan-Paul Olukemi, a transfer from Vincennes University who burned his redshirt during his transfer season. As a result, Olukemi is just a sophomore this year, and it’s clear he is going to be a Big 12 star in the near future. Olukemi is incredibly athletic, can easily create his own shot off the dribble, and knows how to crash the glass from the wings. OSU has struggled at times this season when their guards fail to penetrate, so Olukemi’s playmaking abilities often inject life into a stagnant offense.

Along with Page and Olukemi in the backcourt, the Pokes rely on the services of tiny point guard Ray Penn, Jr. Listed at a generous 5’11”, what Penn lacks in height, he makes up for with quickness. While he knows how to get to the rim and can also knock down the three, he’s most comfortable facilitating the offense. Penn can blow by defenders easily and draw help, which has allowed him to rack up a team-high 51 assists on the year.

Off the bench, Coach Ford has two options at guard. Senior Nick Sidorakis was a starter for much of the year before Olukemi played his way into the starting five, so he provides experienced leadership off the bench. Sidorakis has had a tough season, especially behind the arc, where he’s just 7-for-32 this season.

The other reserve guard, Markel Brown, is also struggling from long range, where he’s made just 29% of his attempts so far. A freshman, Brown is one of those players earning more minutes as the season rolls on, and he will likely be a key component of a pretty salty OSU roster next season. He comes from Peabody High in Louisiana, where he played on an undefeated state championship team, and was named Player of the Year in his home state. While he’s not contributing much on offense yet, Brown is already being relied upon for solid perimeter D.

In the frontcourt, Jarred Shaw and Roger Franklin have not played many minutes off the bench, but could see some extra action tonight against UT’s bigs. The pair has combined for an average of 2.3 points and 2.5 rebounds in 15 minutes per game. Also on the bench is sophomore Reger Dowell an exceptionally quick guard from Duncanville who is averaging just six minutes per game.

Keys to the game

Through their first four conference games, the Longhorns have a free-throw rate of 53.4%, a result of a commitment to attacking inside. Against an Oklahoma State team that constantly puts opponents on the line, this bodes well for Texas’ success. If the Longhorns pile up the points inside, they will not only earn a ton of trips to the line, but they’ll also draw a lot of fouls on the thin OSU frontcourt. Moses, Pilgrim, and Franklin are certainly talented, but if the Longhorns can saddle them with fouls, there won’t be much help coming from the bench for the Pokes.

Defensively, the Longhorns need to keep an eye on Keiton Page. While Moses and Olukemi are going to score a chunk of points tonight, Page is the one who is liable to go off for 20-plus at a moment’s notice. If the Longhorns can limit the damage from the junior guard, it’s unlikely that the rest of the Pokes are going to combine for enough to pull off the upset.

Finally, Texas will succeed if Hill or Wangmene step up. It seems that either Matt Hill or Alexis Wangmene has a good game every time the Horns take the court. Against KU, Hill put in a ton of key minutes on the defensive end, while against A&M, Wangmene had a great performance. Against a talented OSU frontcourt, Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson are going to need some help, especially if they find themselves in foul trouble. If either Hill or Wangmene step up once again, the Horns should be just fine.