As Texas has made its march through the first month of the Big 12 season, the Longhorns have exorcised a few of their recent demons. The team earned the first win in school history at Allen Fieldhouse, then ended a six-year losing streak to Texas A&M at Reed Arena. This afternoon, the Horns can end yet another skid as they host the Baylor Bears.

After beating the Bears 24 consecutive times, the Longhorns have dropped four straight to Baylor, including a three-game sweep last season. That Baylor team went on to the Elite Eight, coming within just minutes of a Final Four berth before falling to Duke in Houston. This year’s team is a decidedly different group of players, and the odds seem to be in Texas’ favor this time around.

The Bears started the season with a lot of buzz, based on the arrival of stud freshman Perry Jones III and the return of sharpshooter LaceDarius Dunn, who will likely be the Big 12’s all-time scoring leader by the end of the season.

Unfortunately, the Bears have stumbled through the first few months of the season, losing three neutral-site games in non-conference play before bumbling through a 3-3 start in the Big 12. Baylor has since won three of four, and now actually find themselves in third place in the conference.

By the numbers

Scott Drew and the Bears play a bit slower than the national average, working in just 66.4 possessions per ballgame. A big reason for this is their standard 2-3 zone, which forces opponents to take longer each possession to find an open look. The Baylor offense is also a bit slow, as the team can often go stagnant for long stretches as Dunn works to get open and the other four guys stand and watch.

The one number that sticks out for Baylor is an abnormally high turnover percentage. The Bears cough it up on 23.8% of their possessions, a stat that is so poor, it puts them 315th nationally out of 345 teams. Fortunately for Baylor, the stout Texas defense isn’t one that forces many turnovers, so they won’t see excessive pressure from the Longhorns this afternoon. If Baylor does turn it over a bunch against Texas, it’s likely the result of their own carelessness.

The Bears are also a great rebounding team, thanks to one of the longest frontcourts in the nation. They claim 37.3% of the offensive rebounding chances they have, while limiting opponents to just a 29.1% success rate on their own offensive board opportunities. In pure numbers, Baylor is posting a +6.6 rebounding margin per game.

However, in their four conference losses, Baylor’s offensive rebounding percentage was 32.4% or lower. In four of the five wins, it was 37% or higher. Only Wednesday’s narrow win over Nebraska came on a night with poor offensive rebounding, with the Bears reclaiming just 28.3% of their misses.

Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma also grabbed a ton of their own misses when they beat the Bears. Both Kansas schools had offensive board percentages north of 46%, while OU — a team that is typically terrible on the glass — grabbed nearly 38% of their own misses.

Meet the Bears

Baylor employs a very small, but talented rotation. Four of the five starters average 32 minutes or more, while Anthony Jones plays at least 29 minutes per night. The bench only runs three deep, but all of the Baylor reserves are skilled role players who make the most of their minutes.

The big name on Baylor’s roster is senior LaceDarius Dunn, who has one of the best shots in college basketball. He will absolutely kill you if you leave him open behind the arc, where he’s made 41.8% of his attempts this season. He’s also averaging more than 20 points per game, including an impressive 18 points per game against conference opponents.

Without Tweety Carter on the Baylor roster, defenses are keying more on Dunn this season. As a result, the Bears are having to work harder setting screens off the ball to free up their sharpshooter. In addition, Dunn has improved his floater and midrange game, which makes it much more of a gamble for opponents to play in his shirt on the perimeter.

Replacing Carter in the backcourt is point guard A.J. Walton, who is doing a good job feeding Dunn and the Baylor bigs. Walton has an eye-popping assist rate of 29.3%, good enough for 102nd in the country according to stat guru Ken Pomeroy. He also has exceptionally quick hands on defense, and leads the Big 12 with 22 steals in 10 conference games. Just like Dunn, Walton is a player that can’t be left alone behind the arc, where he is making 43.1% of his attempts.

Down low, the 6’7″ Quincy Acy is a force to be reckoned with. Although he’s not going to take anybody off the dribble, and more than half of his career field goals are dunks, he repeatedly finds a way to get open down low or sprint for an easy lob. Just ask the Longhorns, who Acy scored 24 points against in Waco last March. Of his 12 buckets in that game, 10 were throwdowns.

Acy is also one of Baylor’s big rebounders, grabbing 7.5 boards per game and 6.8 rebounds per game in Big 12 play. While he’s not the shot blocker that Ekpe Udoh was for the Bears last year, Acy does lead the team with 36 blocks, and he’s constantly altering shots when opponents drive the lane.

The other main rebounder for Baylor is freshman stud Perry Jones III. He’s averaging seven boards a night to go with 14.6 points, and he’s slotted in the top five of practically every NBA mock draft. At 6’11”, PJ3 has played every position in his career, so he’s a versatile threat with great handles, a smooth midrange jumper, and superior athleticism. He’s a tough matchup for 99% of the basketball world, so Texas will have to work very hard to contain him this afternoon.

Anthony Jones is another big man for Baylor, checking in at 6’10”. Although he’s adept at scoring inside, the junior has no problem stepping out beyond the perimeter and knocking down a triple. Defensively, he’s another long body on that back line of Baylor’s 2-3 zone that makes it tough to penetrate or get open looks in the corner.

Off the bench, speedy freshman guard Stargell Love has made a quick impact even though he suffered a stress fracture in his foot back in December. He’s able to split the point guard duties with Walton, but is more of a combo guard who can knock down the three or score inside the arc. He has a wicked pull-up jumper, made even more deadly by just how quickly he can drive the basketball. Although Love is averaging just 12.8 minutes and 2.3 points per game, he is going to be a big star in the near future.

Junior Fred Ellis is a swingman out of California who has already earned his Bachelors and is currently in grad school. He’s a pretty stout 6’6″ guy who scraps for loose balls and rebounds, and generally just provides smart minutes off the bench. (Smart minutes aren’t too surprising, coming from this Doogie Howser of the hardwood.) His 3.9 points and 2.3 rebounds in roughly 17 minutes a game aren’t going to set any box scores ablaze, but he’ll definitely make an impact this afternoon on a handful of plays.

Dallas product J’mison Morgan transferred to Baylor after a season at UCLA, and he gives Coach Drew another big body off the bench to sub into that dominating back line. He’s started six of the team’s conference games, while Acy has been relegated to the sixth man role, so he might be in the starting five tonight. Whether it’s as reserve or starter, the 6’11” Morgan makes it difficult for opponents to get easy looks inside, but isn’t much of a threat on the offensive end.

Keys to the game

The Longhorns can make things very difficult on Baylor today if they get out to a fast start. The Bears managed just 18 points in the first half of a loss against Kansas State, and scored only 21 first-half points against Colorado before storming back late for a victory.

Baylor’s preference for the zone defense means that a big first-half lead is hard for them to overcome. The zone gives them less possessions to work their comeback magic, unless they choose to go to their weaker man-to-man D. Then, they run the risk of letting the opponent score too often to be able to mount any comeback.

To beat that Baylor zone, Texas needs Gary Johnson to knock down the jumpers. He’s the most-efficient mid-range shooter for the Longhorns, so if he can get it going from the soft middle of the zone, things will really open up for Texas.

Baylor has had some major issues this season sliding quickly enough in their zone, leaving the baseline wide open on cuts. If Gary is knocking down the free-throw line J and forcing the Bears to jump out on him, Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson should have a lot of open looks cutting along the baseline.

The Longhorn defense must also be sure to pick its poison this afternoon. It’s practically impossible to shut down Dunn, as he proved in Wednesday night’s win over Nebraska. After scoring just four points in the first half, LaceDarius poured in 20 in the second half, powering his team to a win over the Huskers.

Unfortunately for Baylor, Dunn likely can’t beat Texas by himself. And by the same token, PJ3 and Acy also can’t beat the Horns on their own. If Texas sells out to stop Dunn or to limit the inside scoring from the Bears, it’s unlikely the resulting one-dimensional Baylor attack can manage a win.

Finally, as we mentioned above, keeping Baylor off the glass is a surefire way to earn a W over the Bears. If Texas wins the rebounding battle, the numbers indicate that this Baylor team will have a very tough time pulling off the road upset.