The NCAA tournament hopes of the Texas Longhorns took a hit on Wednesday night, as the young team let the opportunity for a precious road win slip away in Ames, Iowa. Predicted by many national pundits to be a bubble team, the Longhorns will need every win that they can get in Big 12 play, making the loss to Iowa State even more damaging. This evening, the team is back in action against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, another team that provides a ripe target for one of those important league victories.

By the numbers

Oklahoma State has played a challenging non-conference slate, but hasn’t fared well against the tougher teams on the schedule. The Cowboys are just 1-6 against opponents ranked in the Top 100 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Of their other seven wins this year, one came against Langston University of the NAIA, and the remainder came against teams with an average KenPom ranking of 213.

The Cowboys haven’t been particularly efficient on offense, with their adjusted mark of 1.018 points per possession checking in just above the national median. What has kept Oklahoma State competitive is a solid defense, as opponents are scoring just 0.925 points per possession against the Pokes.

It should be noted that Oklahoma State’s solid defensive numbers are thanks in large part to dominating the worst teams on their schedule. In their seven wins, the Cowboys are limiting opponents to just 0.851 points per possession. In those six losses against Top 100 competition, their defense concedes 1.072 PPP. With the Texas offense checking in near the top of the efficiency rankings, it’s likely that they will put a performance similar to Oklahoma State’s other quality opponents.

With the ball, Oklahoma State is having a tougher time. As mentioned above, their overall efficiency numbers aren’t too far above the national median. Their shooting percentage and offensive rebounding numbers both put them in the bottom 100 of D-I hoops, but their lack of turnovers keeps the offense from really struggling. The Pokes have an eFG of just 45.7%, and reclaim only 27.1% of their rebounds. For a Texas team that has had issues defending the perimeter and cleaning the defensive glass, these are great numbers to see on the scouting report.

Meet the Cowboys

There was promise and hope in Stillwater during the offseason, as the arrival of highly-touted freshman Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2) made it appear that the Pokes could be a dark-horse contender in a wide-open Big 12. Instead, the team has been ravaged by injuries and departures, leaving head coach Travis Ford with a short, inexperienced bench.

In the last few weeks, both Reger Dowell and Fred Gulley announced their intentions to transfer, leaving Coach Ford without a single member of his 2009 recruiting class. Earlier this week, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports wrote an excellent breakdown of Ford’s terrible track record of losing recruits, both at Oklahoma State and UMass.

In addition to all of the departures, Ford was also dealt a blow when Jean-Paul Olukemi tore his ACL in the final non-conference game against Virginia Tech. Not surprisingly, that severe of an injury has ended his season. The Pokes are also without nasty big man Darrell Williams, who has remained on the roster since rape charges were filed against him last season. His status with the team won’t be reviewed until the completion of his trial, which was originally scheduled to begin on Monday, but has been pushed back until May.

All told, that leaves the Cowboys with just an eight-man rotation, including five freshmen. Senior Keiton Page (No. 12) is the most experienced player left on the roster, and his recent hot streak has him leading the team with 14.5 points per game. He’s always been known as a three-point threat, but has had to develop more of a driving game during these last two seasons thanks to the team’s point guard issues. Without a true facilitator, Page could no longer camp out on the perimeter and play as simply a spot-up shooter.

Joining Page in the backcourt is redshirt freshman Brian Williams (No. 4). With Gulley and Dowell putting Stillwater in the rearview mirror, Williams earned his first career start against Texas Tech on Wednesday night. He struggled from the floor in his 26 minutes of action, knocking down just one of his six attempts.

On the wing, freshman Nash was expected to be a savior at Gallagher-Iba, but has yet to live up to expectations so far. At 6’7″, 230 pounds, Nash has the body to compete down low, but has the handles and jumper to stretch the floor and play outside. He’s second on the team with 12.4 points per game, but he’ll have to have a big performance tonight if Oklahoma State hopes to pull off the road win.

In the middle, junior transfer Philip Jurick (No. 44) is the second oldest player on the team. A four-star recruit out of Chattanooga, he originally committed to play for the Volunteers, but never played a single minute in Knoxville. He transferred to play junior college ball at Chattanooga State before ending up in Stillwater as the team’s center.

Jurick averages just over 18 minutes per game, but is still tops on the team with an average of six rebounds. The 6’11” big man is also a big part of the team’s defensive success, as his block percentage of 13.3% is 11th-best in the nation.

The team’s fifth starter will likely be Michael Cobbins (No. 20), a 6’8″ redshirt freshman who also is a shot-blocking threat. He was a highly-regarded recruit in high school, but a nasty knee injury ruined his senior year and necessitated last season’s redshirt.

Coming off the bench, freshman point guard Cezar Guerrero (No. 1)is fifth on the team in scoring with 7.5 points per game. Besides Page, he’s the team’s biggest threat from long range, where he’s launched nearly half of his attempts this year. He’s also incredibly quick with the ball, but has played a bit out of control so far this season. Thanks to the backcourt attrition, Guerrero will have to grow up quickly in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Markel Brown (No. 22) has started 11 of the team’s 14 games, but an injury forced him to be the sixth man in Wednesday’s win over Texas Tech. Brown, a former high school state champion in Louisiana, provides Oklahoma State with sound perimeter defense and valuable rebounding from the wings. With the team reeling and full of freshmen, the sophomore will have to step up as a leader down the stretch.

The only other Cowboy at Coach Ford’s disposal is Marek Souček, a Czech 7-footer who had made only three appearances for a total of six minutes during the team’s first 13 games. With Olukemi sidelined for the year, Souček was called upon for 15 minutes in the win over Tech, and responded well. As expected, he’s a true Euro-style big who is more comfortable on the perimeter and midrange than banging against big bodies in the paint.

Keys to the game

1) Establish the inside presence – With only Jurick and Souček providing size inside, the Longhorns need to get Clint Chapman started early, as they did against Iowa State. Establishing that inside presence also includes dominating the glass, something that the Longhorns should be able to do against a poor-rebounding Cowboy team. Even if J’Covan Brown is unable to play or is ineffective thanks to his injury, the Longhorns should be fine if they can play well inside.

2) Control the basketball – In three of the team’s last four games, the Longhorns have coughed it up on more than 22% of their possessions. Oklahoma State has not forced an inordinate number of turnovers this year, but Texas cannot afford to make unforced errors that give the Cowboys extra possessions.

3) Chase Page off the perimeter – Page is averaging 23.7 points over his last three games, including a solid 3-of-5 performance behind the arc against Tech on Wednesday night. The senior guard is always dangerous spotting up outside, so the Longhorns must make him put the ball on the floor. Page is much more effective on the quick catch-and-shoot, and tends to struggle when having to create his own shots.