#7/6 Baylor Bears 76, Texas Longhorns 71

It was another nail-biter for the Longhorns in Waco on Saturday, but the familiar script remained the same. Texas was on the losing end of another game decided by six points or less, coming up just short of a monumental road upset of Baylor. Despite being tied with 2:53 to play and having a shot to tie it again in the final seconds, the Longhorns saw their record in games decided by two possessions or less fall to 0-6 on the season.

J’Covan Brown carried Texas down the stretch
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

Texas was carried by the play of J’Covan Brown, who scored 32 points on 50% shooting from the field, a sharp improvement from the 25.7% mark he posted in the team’s last three games. With Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo playing limited minutes thanks to foul trouble, the Horns had to have a big game from Brown to even stay in it.

Brown’s one-man show was one-upped by Baylor’s Perry Jones III, who logged a double-double with 22 points and 14 boards. He scored from seemingly everywhere on the court, knocking down mid-range jumpers, drilling turnaround looks, and posting up against the foul-plagued Texas frontcourt. Freshman Quincy Miller, a superstar whose brilliance is oftentimes eclipsed by PJ3, added another 18 points to Baylor’s winning effort.

What looked good

It was imperative that Brown finally break out of his funk and have an efficient game, but it didn’t look like that would be the case in the first half. He scored just four points in the game’s first 15 minutes, with those coming off of a goaltended layup and a pair of free throws. Fortunately, the junior was consistently setting up his teammates to score, logging three assists over that same stretch.

Coming out of the locker room, Brown played like a man possessed. He dropped 20 of his 32 points in the second half, even sinking off-balance looks that likely had the coaching staff sweating. Brown also finally found his stroke from long range, knocking down 4-of-7 from behind the arc after going 0-for-3 in the first half.

In addition to Brown’s second-half surge, the Texas defense played a big role in keeping Baylor at arm’s reach when the Bears tried to pull away. The Longhorns forced 18 Baylor turnovers for a TO rate of 26.3%, which led to 20 Longhorn points. Julien Lewis was the biggest catalyst, logging four steals for Texas.

Jonathan Holmes also had a promising start, but struggled on the defensive end and piled up the fouls. He knocked down a triple and a short jumper just outside the lane in the first few minutes of the game, but managed only one other basket the rest of the way and missed both of his free throw attempts.

What needed work

Those missed free throws were an epidemic for the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon. For a team that had made 92.1% of their free throws in games against Kansas State and Kansas, the timing could not have been worse for a tragic downswing. Texas made only 16 of their 26 attempts against Baylor (61.5%), while the Bears made just under 80% of their attempts. In a game decided by just five points, leaving that many freebies at the line was an absolute killer.

In addition to Holmes’ donut at the line, the Longhorns also had crippling misses from Alexis Wangmene, who went 0-for-2, and Kabongo, who missed half of his eight attempts. Obviously, Texas won’t be able to consistently hit at that incredible 92% clip they reached against the two Kansas schools, but the 61.4% mark over the last two games is very troubling as the team heads down the homestretch of the regular season.

Texas was also scuttled by a very poor performance on the defensive glass. Although Baylor has one of the longest, most athletic frontcourts in the country, the Longhorns hurt themselves with a ton of whistles inside that led to a rotating cast in their own frontcourt. The Bears reclaimed more than 45% of their missed shots, which was the 4th-best mark the team has posted in its 21 games and was well above their season average of 37.3%.

Clint Chapman once again found himself in foul trouble
(Photo credit: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press)

One of those players hampered by foul trouble was Chapman, whose absence once again proved how crucial he is to the team’s success. As it was when Chapman was saddled with fouls in the road loss to Missouri, the Longhorns were abused inside for buckets and boards, giving up 22 points and being outrebounded by a count of 40-28.

While any scouting report worth its salt is going to tell teams to attack Chapman and get him on the bench, the Longhorns will have to find a way to protect their big man. That could mean switching to a zone defense against teams that aren’t automatic from long range, although the Big 12 is full of great three-point shooters. Five of the other nine teams in the league have made more than 36% of their threes so far this season, with Baylor actually cracking the Top 10 nationally with a 40.8% mark. In addition, a zone defense would only exacerbate the problems Texas has had on the defensive glass.

The optimal solution would be for Wangmene and Jaylen Bond to step up when Chapman is unavailable, but so far that outcome seems unlikely. Bond is still a fierce rebounder, and did some good work on the glass against Baylor. Unfortunately, he’s undersized for his position, and it’s caused him to really struggle on defense against bigger teams. Wangmene has also done good work on the boards, but his defense is hit-or-miss and he has problems handling the nice interior passes from Brown and Kabongo on the offensive end.

Coming into Texas’ current six-game stretch against the top teams in the Big 12, most fans had an understandably bleak outlook on the team’s future. The fact that the Longhorns were competitive in each of the first five games offers a ray of hope for the upcoming home games against the heavy hitters of the Big 12. Texas let one slip away against Kansas at the Erwin Center last weekend, but still has the opportunity to take down Missouri, Kansas State, and Baylor at home in coming weeks. If the Longhorns want to keep their 13-year NCAA tournament appearance streak alive, that’s exactly what they will have to do.

Up next: vs. #2/2 Missouri (19-2 overall, 6-2 Big 12); Monday, 8 P.M. CT