The Big 12 was widely thought to be a three-team league before the season tipped off in November. Kansas and Oklahoma State were the clear-cut favorites, and in fact were tied atop the pre-season poll of the conference’s coaches. Baylor was predicted to be just a step behind them, with the rest of the league not expected to make much noise. The Mountaineers and Longhorns, who finished seventh and eighth in last year’s standings, were predicted to hold steady in those slots this year.

As it turns out, the league is much deeper and tougher than even its own coaches could have predicted. The top eight teams in the Big 12 are all ranked in the top 65 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, with three in the top twelve. Every road game is going to be tough to win, as Oklahoma State learned in Manhattan and Morgantown on the last two Saturdays.

Unfortunately, for the Longhorns, a road win against a favored team is essentially a must-have at this point. After losing their home conference opener to Oklahoma, Texas now has to steal one back on the road to stay in the hunt for a .500 league record. Tonight’s trip to West Virginia is one of their best opportunities to make up for that loss to the Sooners, but escaping the mountains with a win will still be a tall order.

By the numbers

Like Texas, West Virginia has bounced back well from a dismal campaign in 2012-13. The team’s 10-6 mark can be a bit misleading, as four of the losses came by five points or less, with a fifth coming in a 70-63 neutral-court decision against still-undefeated Wisconsin.

The Mountaineers have the nation’s 32nd best offense in terms of Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency, scoring 1.137 points per possession, up significantly from last year’s 1.026 mark. They shoot the ball fairly well, but it’s their ball control and offensive rebounding numbers that make it so hard for opponents to keep them from scoring. West Virginia boasts the nation’s eighth-best turnover percentage, coughing it up on just 14% of their possessions. They also do a solid job extending possessions by reclaiming 34.9% of their missed shots, a stat that ranks 83rd in Division I.

West Virginia is also extremely dangerous from beyond the arc, knocking down nearly 40% of their threes on the season. They move the basketball very quickly and have a handful of quick, slashing guards who can drive and kick to wide-open teammates on the perimeter. Five different Mountaineers in the core rotation have made at least 37.5% of their long-range looks, with three of them north of the 40% mark.

Defensively, WVU is just a bit ahead of the national average, with most of their tempo-free statistics clustered around the mean. Their weakest defensive number is actually on the glass, where the Mountaineers allow opponents to win back 32.7% of their missed shots. For a Texas team that typically dominates on the offensive glass, that could mean a nice chunk of second-chance points.

Meet the Mountaineers

West Virginia has two of the league’s top five scorers, which is even more impressive when you consider that the team plays at only the fifth-fastest tempo in the ten team league, and they play considerably slower than the likes of OU, Texas, and Iowa State. Sophomore guard Eron Harris (No. 10) is second in the league with 18.1 points per game, and he’s doing it from all over the court.

Harris takes more than 28% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, and with an effective field goal percentage above 56%, it’s easy to see why. He can knock down the midrange jumper, has the speed and a quick first step to repeatedly get him to the rim, and he’s drilled nearly 43% of his three-pointers on the year.

Point guard and former Dayton Flyer Juwan Staten (No. 3) is second on the team and fifth in the Big 12 in scoring. Like Harris, he can easily get to the rack, but his jump shot isn’t quite as reliable. Although Staten scores much more than most point guards, he still has excellent court vision and repeatedly sets up his teammates when his slashing ability draws defensive help. His impressive assist rate of 31.3% is currently ranked 65th in the nation.

Even though they often don’t need the help, West Virginia frequently springs its guards with high ball screens, which makes it even harder for opponents to keep up with Staten, Harris, and the like. Even if a team can rotate and provide help to cut off the driving lanes, West Virginia’s stable of great outside shooters is often waiting to drill a trey. One of those marksmen is Terry Henderson (No. 15), a 37.5% three-point shooter who has logged a pair of triples in each of his Big 12 games this year.

Inside, West Virginia is already seeing great production from freshman Devin Harris (No. 5), a begoggled 6’9″ kid out of Cincinnati. Harris is ranked 100th in Division I with a 22.6% defensive rebounding rate, and is ranked 202nd with an 11.4% mark on the offensive glass. He also has a sound midrange jumper and has no problem facing up opposing forwards and taking them off the bounce. Although he’s 6’9″, Harris looks more like a swingman when he has the ball in his hands near the arc, and his diverse skillset makes him a tough matchup that can spread the floor for his slashing teammates.

Rounding out the starting five is junior Kevin Noreen (No. 34), a glue guy whose contributions typically don’t show up on the stat sheet. He sets solid screens to free up the team’s shooters and driving guards, and he passes extremely well, especially out of the high post. His good cuts and quick passes are a big part of West Virginia’s success when they face a zone.

Off the bench, Puerto Rican product Gary Browne (No. 14) is the team’s primary option in the backcourt. He is yet another three-point threat for West Virginia, but is only playing about 20 minutes per game.

Browne isn’t the only international talent on the roster, as French-born Rémi Dibo (No. 0) arrived this season from Casper College in Wyoming. Dibo is another stretch four who has made nearly 42% of his threes. His decision-making could still use some work, as he sometimes tries to do too much with the ball and ends up turning it over.

Rounding out the rotation is freshman forward Nathan Adrian (No. 11). A fan favorite who played his high school ball in Morgantown, Adrian shows a lot of promise as another big who can play both inside and out. The freshman scraps for boards and has a nice jump shot, but with so much talent on the roster, he’s only averaging about 17 minutes per game.

Keys to the game

1) Crash the glass – On the year, West Virginia is 6-1 when outrebounding their opponents, with the lone loss coming on Saturday against Oklahoma State. Although the Mountaineers do a great job getting to the rack and knocking down threes, their ability to reclaim their misses makes them even more dangerous. Texas has done a solid job winning the rebounding battle in most of their games this year, so if they can take away that aspect of West Virginia’s offense and also get their own second chances, the Horns may be able to pull out a tough road win.

2) Attack in transition – West Virginia throws in a lot of different defensive looks, including an odd-front zone that gave the Horns trouble late in last year’s loss at Morgantown. With a young and inexperienced backcourt, that could give Texas some issues, especially considering the team’s tendency to go stagnant on the offensive end for extended stretches.

Fortunately, West Virginia has struggled at stopping the ball in transition and finding off-the-ball players on the break. The Longhorns already prefer to play an up-tempo game, but against the Mountaineers, that kind of approach is a necessity. Of course, with West Virginia taking very good care of the basketball, the Horns will need to constantly look up after defensive boards if they want to initiate the break.

3) Shut down dribble penetration – This is easier said than done, but if the Texas defense can communicate well and provide the help to limit West Virginia’s dribble penetration, the Mountaineers have shown that they will often settle for jumpers. The challenge doesn’t end with simply cutting off driving lanes, as good rotation will be key to prevent kickouts to WVU’s excellent shooters. Help defense and good rotation still won’t be enough on some possessions, thanks to West Virginia’s crisp ball movement, but that will hopefully provide enough stops to give Texas a chance in this one.