It is only the first year of the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series, but the conference showcase has already brought us a slew of great games. Sunday night, Kansas needed overtime to knock off a pesky Arizona team, while K-State and Oregon also played an extra five minutes in their game on Thursday night. Tonight, the marquee game takes place at Pauley Pavilion, where the top-ranked UCLA Bruins play host to the freshly-ranked #8 Longhorns. It’s the first game involving two top-ten teams this season, and would surely be the most-hyped of the year…if not for the fact that ESPN doesn’t want folks watching it on FSN.

By the numbers

Texas has seen its RPI drop to 22 since Wednesday, a combination of playing a weak Texas Southern squad and having past opponents drop a few games yesterday. UCLA is still near the top of the charts, checking in at #4 in Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations.

When you watch a Ben Howland team, you always know you will get a ton of defense. This Bruins squad is certainly no exception, with their defensive efficiency ranking in the top five. They allow opponents to score only 79.4 points per 100 possessions, which is going to create a clear clash of styles against a Texas team that is tops in the country offensively, scoring 133.1 points per 100 possessions.

UCLA has won most of their games this year with ease, beating opponents by an average of 23 points per game. Their closest call came in the CBE Classic championship game, where Michigan State led for 39-and-a-half minutes. UCLA clawed back for most of the second half, finally taking the lead in the final thirty seconds before icing it with free throws.

Starting five

The biggest challenge for the Longhorns will be freshman center Kevin Love. Michigan State worked hard to keep him in check when they played UCLA, throwing a ton of bodies at him to pick up fouls and make the kid work for his buckets. Love finished 9-of-12 from the line that night, leading to a 21-point performance.

He’s also going to create a huge problem for a Texas team that struggles with rebounding. Love is a vacuum on the offensive glass, and the Longhorns have not shown a ton of promise on either end when it comes to securing the boards. This UCLA team likes to grind it out in half-court sets, and if Texas allows them a ton of lengthy possessions with multiple offensive rebounds, they will be playing right into the hands of Coach Howland.

Forward Alfred Aboya didn’t miss a beat after shattering his eye socket against Yale last weekend. He was back in Wednesday night’s game against George Washington, sporting some yellow goggles borrowed from the Lakers, who apparently had been keeping them in storage since the 1970’s. The lengthy kid from Cameroon was averaging just a shade under 22 minutes per game prior to the injury, but still saw the floor for fourteen minutes against the Colonials. He is not a huge offensive threat and is not nearly the rebounder that Love is, but will likely cause matchup problems for Texas with his 6’8″ frame.

The other Bruin coming off of injury is point guard Darren Collison, who saw his first action of the season against GWU. On the short-list of candidates for “best point guard in the country,” this guy has a gold star next to his name. Despite the fact that watching the anemic Bruins offense is sometimes similar to undergoing an ice-pick lobotomy, he is an excellent floor general with great court vision. In his debut against the Colonials, Collison scored fourteen and had five assists in 26 minutes of play.

Forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is the other half of UCLA’s Cameroonian duo. As you’ll no doubt hear 27 times in tonight’s broadcast, Mbah a Moute is a prince in his native village of Bia Messe, and his father runs the Cameroon Employment Fund, which trains citizens and helps them find work. As for his game, Prince Mbah a Moute is deceptively quick for his size. He often grabs steals which seem to come out of nowhere, and has an average shot which will get him a few buckets per game. Again, his height will create a mismatch as he is the third-tallest starter for the Bruins, yet is five inches taller than Justin Mason, the third-tallest Longhorn starter.

During Collison’s lengthy absence, speedy little guard Russell Westbrook took the reins for the Bruins. While at the point, he seemed to be a little too hyper for the UCLA style of play, jacking up shots earlier than Howland liked. He seemed to settle down over time, though, and is averaging over 13 points per game heading into this one. If Augustin is sticking Collison, I think Abrams could potentially struggle with Westbrook’s speed. But since the Horns are likely going to be packing the lane in this one, I don’t think that will be exploited as easily as it could against a tighter perimeter defense.

Key reserves

Lorenzo Mata-Real is quite possibly the ugliest player to step on a basketball court in the last 30 years. But he’s also a solid rebounder off of the bench for Coach Ben Howland, grabbing over seven boards per game so far this year despite only seeing about 22 minutes per contest. He’s not much of a scoring threat, but he is going to cause some problems for the Horns inside, particularly when Howland leaves both Love and Mata-Real on the floor at the same time.

The X-factor in this game could end up being Josh Shipp. The Bruins are a very poor 3-point shooting team, hitting only 33% of their shots from behind the arc so far this year. But Shipp can occasionally get hot from long range, and if that happens today the Horns will have to pick their poison. (Westbrook is also a threat from long-range, but has only ten attempts so far on the season.) The likelihood of the Bruins beating Texas with threes isn’t that high, but if you do see UCLA starting to light it up outside, prepare for a long day filled with the Longhorns having to defend on two fronts.

What to look for

It looks like Texas will have to force the tempo in this one if they want a chance to win. UCLA is not nearly as strong offensively as the Longhorns, so a high-scoring game plays in Rick Barnes’ favor. In addition, Howland’s defense will likely be pressuring out high, extending beyond the perimeter. We saw what this did to the Texas offense back in March against USC, and it wasn’t pretty. To avoid that, Texas should push the transition game and not get lulled into a half-court battle.

We’ll probably see a lot of rotation from the Texas bigs, especially if they are picking up fouls down low trying to defend Kevin Love. Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman might be looked at to absorb fouls, while likely playing more minutes than they are used to. Even Dexter Pittman could be useful, although only in short spurts, as he doesn’t really fit in the up-tempo game that Texas will need to play to win.

All told, this is going to be a hell of a tough assignment for the Longhorns. Obviously, if they shoot like they did last Saturday, it will be tough to beat them. But against a tough Ben Howland defense, don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen. If Texas can push the tempo and keep the score up, they’ve got a shot. If UCLA controls the tempo, look for the Bruins to pull out a win by five to ten points.