TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) at #14 Texas Longhorns (11-2)
Tip: 4 PM | TV: FSN Southwest

The Longhorns hit the court again this afternoon, hoping a game against TCU can help them bounce back from consecutive losses to tough, physical Big 10 opponents. The big news of the day is the regular-season debut of freshman stud Gary Johnson, who should help the Longhorns with that weak inside game. Johnson’s return also relegates guard Justin Mason to the bench, which will help to ease the burden on the overworked combo of A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin.

While the losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin were not blowouts, one can’t help but think back to the Elite Eight season just two years ago. That Texas team started the year with nine straight wins before suffering back-to-back blowouts to Duke and Tennessee. That team finished the year at 30-7 — the best record in school history — and it took overtime to knock them out of the NCAA tournament just shy of the Final Four. One can only hope this season’s story arc will continue with its similar path.

By the numbers

The Horned Frogs are a sight for sore eyes on the Texas schedule at this point. TCU is an average 8-4 so far this year, and has amassed the mark against the 333rd toughest schedule in the country. Or if you prefer to look at it the other way, they did it against the 9th easiest schedule to date.

TCU’s losses have come against some familiar opponents, as they lost three straight after Thanksgiving to the likes of Tech, Oklahoma, and SMU. After beating up on some more patsies from the Southwestern Technical Association of Seminary Colleges, the Horned Frogs blew a big halftime lead on Saturday against the Rice Owls, ultimately losing by five.

Texas Christian is an up-tempo team, with an average of 71 possessions per game. While the Longhorns’ tempo numbers are muddled by slower games against UTSA, UCLA, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, it is undebatable that Texas plays better when pushing the issue and getting out in transition. Unless the Horned Frogs try to adjust their own style to slow down the Longhorns, this one could be ugly.

Offensively, TCU is a slightly above average squad, averaging just over a point per possession. While that’s no match for Texas — who sports the most effective offense in the land — the Horned Frogs’ troubles are further complicated by their struggling defense. Their numbers look good at first blush, but when adjusted to reflect that pitifully easy schedule, their DefEf plummets to 222nd in the country. If the Longhorns don’t score at will against these guys, something is horribly wrong.

Players to watch

Junior guard Henry Salter is the go-to guy for the Horned Frogs, averaging 14.9 points in only 26.1 minutes per game. He takes good care of the ball, and is a deadly shooter from behind the arc. Salter is 30-of-61 from long range so far this season, so if the Horned Frogs are going to have any chance of an upset, they’ll need him to continue the three-point bombing.

Big man Kevin Langford is the brother of former Kansas Jayhawk Keith Langford, but isn’t quite as good. This Langford knows how to get to the line, as he holds one of the highest free-throw rates in the nation. Unfortunately, he’s only 70% from the line once he gets there, although that still makes him one of the best Horned Frogs from the charity stripe. As a team, TCU is only 63% from the line.

Brent Hackett is the other starting guard for Coach Neil Dougherty, and he is not shy about launching the three-ball. While he’s not nearly as accurate as Salter, Hackett has 93 attempts from behind the arc and has connected on 34% of them. Although Mason will be coming off the bench, his lockdown defense will be needed to keep Salter and Hackett under control.

Coming off the bench is guard Jason Ebie. The 6-foot, 1-inch sophomore has quick hands and is adept at forcing steals that jumpstart the TCU transition game. If Ebie is in the game, Horn fans have to hope that Augustin is always at the point. The thought of Abrams or Mason having to run the show against this thief is pretty scary.

What to look for

Crashing the glass – TCU is a horrible rebounding team, and the addition of Gary Johnson to the lineup should only make things worse for the visitors. After struggling on the glass against Michigan State and throughout the second half of the Wisconsin game, this one should offer the Texas bigs a good chance to pad those stats.

The sixth man – How will Justin Mason respond to his new role as the first man off the bench? His offensive game has struggled lately, so one can only hope that this shake-up gives the kid the spark he needs to get back on track.

The Gary Johnson effect – In addition to helping out on the boards and in the paint, the addition of Johnson also should free up other Longhorn players on the court. I’m particularly interested to see how often Gary’s presence inside opens up Connor and Damion for those mid-range jumpers they can easily knock down.

The magic number – Although Texas really shouldn’t have a problem in this one, it is interesting to note that the Horned Frogs have scored at least 75 points in each of their eight wins this year. Unless TCU can shoot it over the Texas defense, they will likely be held below the magic 75 mark.