The cliché holds that in a rivalry game, you can throw out the records, the stats, and the trends. And I’m with you — I cringe every time I hear an announcer trot this out. But the reason we hear the damned saying so much is because it’s actually pretty accurate. So forget that Texas A&M has lost three of four, and that the Longhorns haven’t won in their last three trips to Reed Arena. To steal another oft-used phrase, once the ball is tipped, this is going to be an old-fashioned grudge match.

By the numbers

So it’s pretty ridiculous of me to tell you to throw out the numbers and then proceed to give you those numbers. But that’s the format of these game previews, so we’re going to stick with “tradition.” I hear that’s pretty important in College Station.

As mentioned, A&M has lost three of four games coming into this one. They overcame a late deficit in Stillwater on Saturday to avoid a devastating fourth-straight loss, holding the Pokes without a field goal in the final eight minutes. While the Aggies have struggled on the road, they’ve dominated against their creampuff schedule at home the last few seasons. This year, they are sporting a 13-1 mark in Reed Arena.

Mark Turgeon’s team is ranked in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. While last year’s Aggie squad was ranked in the top ten of both categories when they hosted the Horns, this year’s team will still be a tough out.

The Aggies have a huge roster and ran about twelve deep through most of the non-conference slate. Since entering Big 12 play, Turgeon has trimmed the fat and now gives significant minutes to seven or eight of his players.

The starters

For a Texas team that struggles with guarding the perimeter, Josh Carter is a huge concern. Although he’s been in a slump so far in conference play, Carter led the NCAA in three-point percentage last season and is second all-time in the Big 12 for the same stat. In his last four games, Josh is 6-of-25 from behind the arc, but tends to heat up when facing the Longhorns. It will be key to maintain pressure on this difference-maker.

Bryan Davis has replaced DeAndre Jordan as a starter in the last few games, and he’s responding with quality numbers. He’s the second-leading scorer on the team in Big 12 play and is eating up a ton of minutes down low for Coach Turg. Davis isn’t going to blow by anybody or pull out stunning post moves, but he’s a smart player who earns his points and keeps his team in it.

Along with Davis, the Aggies rely on Joseph Jones down low in their inside-out attack. A&M is a really scary team when their post players are scoring, because defenses who try to sell out to stop Jones, Davis, and Jordan are often burned by wide-open three-point shooters. We all know that Jones is prone to picking up a ton of fouls, but he’s also the team’s leading rebounder in conference play.

Donald Sloan is likely the fastest guy on the floor for A&M, but lately he’s had problems hanging on to the basketball. Over the last four games, he’s turned over the ball a nauseating 17 times. As long as the Longhorns can stay in front of Sloan and keep him from flying by them on the drive, they should be able to minimize his impact on the game. And if they can force his hand, it could result in a few fast-break buckets for the visitors.

This year, Dominique Kirk is running the point for the Ags. It’s certainly not a natural position for him, and the Aggies are definitely seeing a drop-off from last year’s stud point Acie Law. But Kirk is generally doing a good job holding down the fort and has only turned it over four times in conference play. He’s also a threat from long range, hitting 47.8% of his threes on the season. As with Carter, the Horns will have to keep an eye on Kirk to make sure he doesn’t key a huge run for the Aggies.

The bench

Freshman sensation DeAndre Jordan has cooled off considerably once the rigors of Big 12 play began, and he’s even starting games on the bench. Jordan is a huge kid who gets his share of putbacks and dunks, and his presence in the lane helps the Aggie defense tremendously. He’s also a great passer who can zing it over defenders from his high vantage point, and that is a boon to the transition game and the A&M inside-out attack. But lately he’s having a few more of those “freshman mistakes,” picking up fouls quickly, traveling, and making dumb turnovers. The Longhorns will certainly have their hands full with DeAndre, but if he makes his share of typical miscues, it could negate the advantages he provides.

Derrick Roland is a guard with quick hands that can really force the issue when he gets in the face of the Longhorn guards. Nicknamed D-Roll, he’s only seeing about ten minutes per game in conference play, but can provide a great spark of the bench.

Big man Chinemelu “Junior” Elonu is another guy who can provide energy for Coach Turgeon off the bench, but his minutes have been significantly limited in the last few games. He won’t score much, but he gets after it on the boards and is one of those players with the intangibles that makes you think he’s going to be a solid contributer before his four years are up.

What to look for

In their three losses, the one constant according to Ken Pomeroy was an inordinately high free throw rate for their opponents. Texas Tech exploited this by attacking the A&M big men, and Texas would be wise to do the same. The Longhorns seemed to be practicing this against the Red Raiders, making a conscious effort to feed the post. Hopefully the Texas bigs will be able to perform at the same level tonight against a very talented Aggie front line.

On the other side of the charity stripe, the Aggies have also struggled tremendously from the line. As a team, they are hitting only 61% of their free throws, with big man Jordan shooting a pitiful 38% from the line on the year. I would love to see Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, and Dexter Pittman playing very physical defense inside tonight. Damion James and Connor Atchley can’t afford to get in foul trouble, as their agility will cause problems for A&M’s big men. But if the bench warmers can force the Aggies to earn their points from the line, the Longhorns will benefit tremendously.

The other big weakness for the Aggies is ball control, as they have turned it over 15 times a game since entering conference play. Texas Tech forced a ton of turnovers in their win, and the up-tempo Longhorn attack would love to start a bunch of breaks off of Aggie miscues. While A&M is less likely to get rattled and make a ton of mistakes in front of their home crowd, Texas should definitely pressure Davis and Sloan, who both are famous for losing the handle.

The Aggies are favored by three points heading into this one — not that we’d ever condone gambling — and that sounds about right. This game should be a really good one, and you’ve got to give A&M the edge in front of their devoted fans. Be sure to tune in to the action on ESPN2, and check back tomorrow morning for the post-game.