Tip: 6:00 PM CST | TV: ESPN2 The Longhorns head to Norman tonight as they kick off the toughest stretch of their season. Six of the next seven games for the Longhorns come against teams in the Top 50 of the RPI, with four of the games coming on the road. While beating the Sooners will be no easy task, Texas can’t afford to fold in February, and a win today will start things off on the right note. Unfortunately, tonight’s game is at 6 P.M., so that’s going to put a squeeze on the usual game preview. Here’s my best attempt at a down-and-dirty look at the game. By the numbers Oklahoma comes into this game as winners of three of their last four games, the sole defeat coming on Saturday against the Aggies in College Station. The Sooners are one game back of Texas in the conference standings and are in the mix for the third or fourth bye in Kansas City. Offensively, the Sooners are a bit streaky and often go cold for long stretches. But when they are on, they really can click. Their offensive efficiency is 31st-best in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. And for a team that sometimes forces up a bunch of poor shots in a row, that tells you just how excellent they are during the hot streaks. What keeps the Sooners in the games when they are going cold is a really solid defense, which checks in at 38th in DefEff rankings. Teams often jack up a ton of threes against the solid inside D of Oklahoma, but hopefully the Horns won’t feel married to the perimeter. It is important to attack the lane and draw fouls on the Sooner bigs…as long as A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin are the ones shooting the free throws. The nightmare scenario for Texas would be a game in which their threes aren’t falling and the guards refuse to dribble penetrate and draw the post players on defense. The starters It all flows through big man Blake Griffin, who will be starting his second game since a knee injury suffered at Kansas on January 14th. He returned only two weeks later and provided ridiculous numbers off the bench before returning to the starting five against College Station just a few days ago. But don’t think it’s going to hamper his game, because he hasn’t backed down an inch since rejoining the team. He’s still a threat for a double/double on a nightly basis, and when teams try to put multiple defenders on him, he’s a deft enough passer to find other big men Longar Longar and Taylor Griffin. Austin Johnson runs the point, but is much more of a ball-control guard than one who likes to penetrate and score. He’s averaging eight points a game, two of which seem to come off of a back-door cut every game. The Sooners love to use a big to set the high screen for Johnson, who typically rolls to the basket wide open. In the five OU games I’ve watched this year, it has worked at least once against literally each opponent. Hopefully the Horns will be smart enough not to chase the screener out to nearly the three-point line, because the Griffin brothers aren’t long-range threats, and Longar is streaky from that far out. Tony Crocker is one of three Sooners averaging more than 10 points per game, and he does it by putting the ball on the floor and attacking the basket. He’s also able to knock it down from outside, hitting 45% of his attempts from behind the arc. He’s a really long guard, checking in at 6’6″, so he’ll create some problems for whichever Longhorn is stuck with him. Down low, Longar Longar has finally developed into a really scary player. He can still play excellent defense and block a shot into the mezzanine, but his offense is now a legitimate threat. Part of this is the addition of Blake Griffin to the lineup, drawing defenders away from the lanky center, but Longar has also practiced his shots and post moves. He can knock down jumpers, sink turnarounds from the baseline, and even make the defenders look silly with a set of moves leaving them behind the layup or dunk. It seems like David Godbold has been in the OU backcourt even longer than Hollis Price, but this will actually be the last time the Horns ever face him in Norman. He’s crashing the boards really well from OU’s three-out, two-in sets, but is fortunately the lowest-scoring starter for Coach Jeff Capel. The Sooners aren’t rebounding very well for a team with such a solid frontcourt, so hopefully Texas can keep this guard off the glass and further exploit the rebounding advantage. Off the bench With Keith Clark academically ineligible this semester, Capel is left with a fairly short rotation. Guard Omar Leary can give some much-needed rest to the three starters, and is pretty damned good for a sixth man. He’s a JuCo transfer, so he’s ready to produce in his first season with the team. Leary can stick a three-pointer with a man right on him, but is also really quick off the dribble if defenders play in his face. Blake’s big brother Taylor Griffin also gives some minutes in the frontcourt, but is really the only productive bench player Capel can use in the post. Freshman Cade Davis is still pretty raw at the forward position, but can grab a few rebounds and putbacks on occasion. If the Longhorns can get Longar and the Griffin brothers in foul trouble, it will really force the hand of Jeff Capel and the Sooners. For now, we must get on the road, but be sure to tune in early tonight to catch this one. The game is airing on the Deuce and should be over just in time to watch that big one from Chapel Hill. |