On Wednesday, Texas started off its brutal three-week march of death on the right foot, winning a road game in Norman. Today they face a team that doesn’t look to be threatening based solely on record, but the truth is that the Iowa State Cyclones can be a dangerous ball club. And even when you look past the teams themselves and just examine the history, you find that the Longhorns are only 2-5 all-time in Hilton Coliseum, a gym that can be incredibly loud and unnerving when ‘Clone fans fill it up.

This is something of a “must-win” for the Horns, as that death march gets only tougher from here. The next five games for Texas are against teams all ranked 38th or better according to Ken Pomeroy’s RPI approximations. And while Iowa State has won all three home games in Big 12 play, this is the most winnable game over the next three weeks for Texas.

By the numbers

The Cyclones’ offense is fairly anemic, but their defense is solid enough that they can grind out wins without scoring many points. That defense has been even better at home for Iowa State, as they’ve held opponents to only 58 points per game in conference play. For comparison, they’ve allowed 76 points per game on the road in conference games, although that stat is still a little inflated as two of the three teams included were Kansas and Kansas State.

Iowa State also plays really good defense without letting its opponents get to the line. On the season, they have taken 424 shots from the charity stripe, yet only sent opponents there 348 times. According to Pomeroy, their defensive free-throw rate (FT attempts/FG attempts) is 15th-best in all of NCAA basketball. While this would seem to be a good thing for a Texas team that shoots poorly from the line, it also means that a huge part of D.J. Augustin‘s game will be missing from his repertoire. If he can’t drive to the rim and draw fouls, the defense could be less-inclined to help, limiting the number of open looks that D.J. can dish for.

Texas fans can expect a slow, grind-it-out game from the Cyclones. Their tempo is ranked in the bottom-third of NCAA D-1 schools, which allows them to keep the score low enough to steal victories. With the number of possessions limited, Texas cannot afford to jack up ill-advised shots early in possessions, and they absolutely must crash the offensive glass. If Iowa State can somehow keep the Longhorn offense within the 60-point range, they could have a shot today.

The starters

The key to the Iowa State offense is guard Wesley Johnson, a Texas kid who got away. He leads the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game, and the Cyclones often look like they’ve forgotten how to score when he’s not out there. He missed the beginning of the season with a foot injury and then re-aggravated it in the victory over Colorado, causing him to miss the game against Nebraska earlier this week. The Cyclones sputtered with Johnson in street clothes, and struggled even more when big man Jiri Hubalek was also on the bench.

Johnson is a difficult match-up for Texas, because he’s an off-guard who is 6-foot, 7-inches. Yes, you read that right. He’s got a full eight inches on the Longhorns’ own 2-guard, A.J. Abrams, meaning that Damion James will likely be tasked with guarding the prolific scorer. But when James is on the bench, other Longhorns will have a tough time with him. Gary Johnson gives up an inch or two, while Clint Chapman, Alexis Wangmene, or Connor Atchley aren’t agile enough to keep up with Johnson. Wes is going to get his points in this game, but it’s a question of how well the Longhorns can shut down the other role players for Iowa State.

The other key to Iowa State’s unsteady offense is the aforementioned Jiri Hubalek. He’s a big man from the Czech Republic who can give ‘Clone fans heart attacks. While he gets his points down low, he often fumbles the pass or rebounds, and sometimes misses point-blank shots that he has no business missing. He’s fitting in more comfortably with Coach McDermott’s system now, although early clashes with the new coach nearly led to Hubalek quitting after Wayne Morgan’s departure. Hubalek will definitely score in the paint, but the Texas bigs have faced much tougher competition down low, and they should fare well against him.

The player I’m most excited to see today is freshman Craig Brackins. He can do a little bit of everything, as he’s lethal from long range, can attack off the dribble, and has the body to play down low when he feels like it. If the Cyclones do happen to pull off an upset in this one, it could be Brackins getting hot from outside that makes the difference. Although he still needs some work, the biggest knock on his game is that at 6-10, he hangs out too far from the paint. His team is getting out-rebounded on the season, and they need his length inside. So far, he’s only grabbing five boards per game and that number really needs to go up for the ‘Clones to see more success.

The point guard for Coach McDermott is former hometown kid and former walk-on Bryan Peterson. He’s a good floor-general who doesn’t score very often, but he has a nice shot from outside when he takes it. On the season, he’s only 35.8% from behind the arc, but he is still not a guy you want to leave open. He’s not going to get the kinds of assists that Augustin racks up when driving to the lane, but Peterson keeps the offense running and is a really great story for announcers to talk about when their games are out of hand.

Rashon Clark is a senior forward for the Cyclones, and he’s a consistent, hard-nosed kid. He’s yet another Iowa State player who is really long, and is averaging nine points and five boards this year. Sometimes it seems like he doesn’t communicate as well on defense as the other Iowa State players, but his long arms make it easier for him to catch up from behind the play on the occasions when he gets out of position. He’s a quick slasher and has absolutely incredible hops, so if gets out in the open court, expect him to bring the house down with a monster jam.

Off the bench

Although Brackins is the freshman who starts for Iowa State, Diante Garrett is the point guard of the future in Ames. He’s got a ton of talent, but still needs to develop his body and his game for the college level. I have a feeling that in future years, fans of Texas and other Big 12 schools are going to be frustrated quite a few times by the Garrett/Brackins combo. For now, he’s earning a nice chunk of minutes and learning on the job. He doesn’t score often because his shooting percentage is always dipping towards the Mendoza line, but he’s got good basketball IQ and commands the floor when he’s in there.

The most important guy off the bench could be Alex Thompson, though. He’s another 6’10” forward, but he’s an absolute presence on defense. He’s been playing pretty well in conference games, but really showcased what kind of a game he could have with significant minutes when the Cyclones faced Oregon State. Yes, I realize that the Beavers are abysmal, but Thompson shot 55% from the field and had a 12/5 line in his 30 minutes on the court. Like Brackins, he should really rebound better for a guy his size, but when he’s in the game he definitely makes opponents think twice about driving the lane.

Sean Haluska eats some minutes at the guard position, but he’s more famous for having a talented brother than for anything he’s done thus far in Ames. Other than that, Coach McDermott throws in a few minutes here and there for the rest of his bloated bench, but none make any contributions of note.

What to look for

Texas is going to have a tough time getting fast breaks going against the ‘Clones. Their transition D is solid, as the team gets back in a hurry to not only cut off the fast break, but get set up in position to prevent a secondary break, as well. If Texas can force some turnovers, they should certainly try to grab the easy points, but should not force the issue if the Cyclones cut it off. As I previously mentioned, possessions will be limited in this one, so the Horns can’t throw away the extra ones by pressing too hard against a good transition D.

The resiliency that the Horns showed on Wednesday night in Norman will also be big here. Iowa State is a great defensive team, and Texas could start out shooting poorly once again as a result. They need to keep pressing on like they did against the Sooners, and eventually their talent should win out. The nice thing about Iowa State’s slow-down, grind-it-out game is that even if they grab a lead, the Longhorns should always be within striking distance. Over a forty-minute game, I like Texas’ odds to end up on top.

With the game being more of a half-court affair, will fans be treated to more time from Dexter Pittman? With Coach Barnes bringing Damion James off the bench in the last two, Pittman, Chapman, and Wangmene have seen more minutes. This could be a chance for Pittman to eat up some PT and chip in some points down low against the Cyclone frontcourt.

On a related note, will this mark the return of James to the starting lineup? Nobody else really matches up with Wes Johnson, so leaving him out there against a Longhorn defense without DaMo to start the game could prove costly. I’d like to see James back in the starting five and hassling Johnson for 36+ minutes. This also leads to the point that James cannot afford to get in foul trouble in this one.

For another look at the match-ups, check out the interview that CrossCyed of Clone Chronicles gave the good folks at Burnt Orange Nation today. CC is a quality blogger and knows this team very well, so be sure to give it a look.

While this one is on ABC, it’s a split-national telecast with the Washington State/USC tilt airing at the same time. Check your local listings to see if its on in your area. If it’s not, you can check it out on ESPN360.com, although I’ve never messed with that and can’t really tell you how it works.

I may try to head all the way back to Austin tonight, so the post-game might take a while in coming. If I happen to stop somewhere for the night, I’ll try to tap it out then. Otherwise, look for new content on Sunday evening.