The Texas Longhorns face their biggest test of the young conference season as they head to Norman tonight for a top-ten matchup with the rival Sooners. Both Oklahoma and Texas have hopes to win the conference this season, and the home-and-home series between the two teams will play a huge part in deciding the league’s champion.

The Longhorns have won six straight against the Sooners, and eleven of the last fourteen matchups between the two teams. Prior to that, Oklahoma enjoyed their own dominance in the series, reeling off eight straight wins under former coach Kelvin Sampson. But even with recent history on their side, the Longhorns will have their hands full against a very talented Sooner squad which hasn’t lost at home since the Longhorns last visited on February 6th, 2008.

By the numbers

Based solely on the efficiency stats, tonight’s game looks to be a battle of strengths. All season, the Longhorns have survived with a stifling defense that is ranked 13th in the nation. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has been unstoppable with the ball, scoring 1.168 points per possession, an impressive clip that is 11th-best in the country.

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, their offense does not match up as well with Oklahoma statistically. Texas’ offensive efficiency is only 75th nationally, while the Sooners’ D checks in at 45th. Combining all of those ratings gives the Longhorns a +0.205 differential per possession, while OU enjoys a more robust +0.250 margin. While these fractions of a point may seem miniscule, over the course of a 65- to 70-possession game, it can easily add up.

In terms of tempo, the two teams are nearly identical, with both averaging just a shade under 70 possessions per contest. The Sooners do look to push the ball in transition off of defensive rebounds, but their half-court offense is so efficient that they are far from a run-and-gun team. If the Texas defense can make a difference in this game, they should stay close enough with the Sooners to have a shot as time winds down.

The starting five

The Sooners return a very experienced roster with a key addition in the backcourt, making them one of the scariest teams in the conference and the country. This year, Capel is going with a three-out, two-in look, relying on the Griffin brothers to provide a strong scoring presence in the paint.

The one newcomer in the starting five is heralded freshman Willie Warren, who was named a McDonald’s All-American and Gatorade Texas Player of the Year during his senior season at Fort Worth’s North Crowley High. Warren is an incredibly quick guard who creates his own shot and has an uncanny knack for getting to the rim. Although he was plagued by the typical early-season freshman struggles, the guard has exploded in his last five games, averaging 21 points per game over that stretch.

The presence of Warren in the backcourt has really opened things up for senior point guard Austin Johnson, who has long struggled with leading the OU offense. Johnson is not terribly quick with the ball, but the extra attention defenses are giving to Warren is allowing the point guard more room to drive. As a result, Johnson has made fewer unforced errors and is dishing out 3.3 assists for every turnover this season.

The key player for the Sooners is Blake Griffin, a sophomore who is averaging a double-double with 22 points and 14 boards per game. Despite the possibility of being a high NBA draft pick last June, the younger Griffin returned for his second year and is one of the leading candidates for the Naismith Award. His skill set is incredibly impressive for a guy his size, which has pro scouts salivating. Griffin is not only a near-lock within ten feet of the basket, but he is a defensive stud, has great mid-range, and can handle the ball extremely well. This allows him to pull big men out near the perimeter, opening up the lanes for his teammates, and also exposes his less-talented opponents to being taken off the dribble.

The older guy in the frontcourt is Taylor Griffin, who has been overshadowed by his kid brother the last two seasons. But he’s also benefitting from the focus defenses are giving Blake, as he often finds himself wide open for dump-offs under the basket and gobbles up easy putbacks on weak-side rebounds. Taylor is only averaging nine points per game, but his presence keeps defenses honest when they want to key solely on Blake. He’s also the team’s second-leading rebounder with just over six boards per game.

Tony Crocker is the primary long-range threat for the Sooners, although his numbers have decreased slightly this year. Crocker is only hitting 34% of his threes this season after logging an impressive 42.4% rate from behind the arc last year. He’s also adept at attacking off the dribble, so if Texas plays him too tightly on the perimeter, he can quickly get to the rim for an easy two. Checking in at 6’6″, he could create also a match-up problem for the Longhorns, who sometimes elect to go small with a three-guard look.

Keys to the game

Hit the threes – Oklahoma struggled early against Arkansas, Purdue, and Kansas State, falling behind all three teams in the first half. The common thread in those games was an unencumbered barrage from behind the arc, as the Sooners allowed those three opponents to shoot a combined 16-of-33 (48.4%) from long range in the first half of those games. Oklahoma managed to claw their way back for victories against K-State and Purdue, but Texas can really help their chances by attacking the weak perimeter defense.

The key to doing so will likely be A.J. Abrams, who has been practically a ghost during the last month. Fortunately, history bodes well for A.J., as he lit up the Sooners for seven three pointers in their last meeting, which came at the Big 12 tournament last March. Without a resurgence from Abrams tonight, the Longhorns may find it tough to earn their points inside against a stout post defense.

Keep OU off the charity stripe – With the Sooners pounding the ball down low to the Griffin brothers, they enjoy a distinct advantage at the free throw line. Oklahoma averages ten more free throws per game than their opponents, while nearly 25% of their scoring comes from the charity stripe. With the Longhorns missing an inexcusable 36% of their own free throws, this stat could be the difference in the game.

Weather the crowd – Texas has performed well in hostile road environments this season, grabbing a win at the Kohl Center last month against Wisconsin three weeks after they beat Villanova in an alleged neutral-site game that was 95% Wildcat fans. And even though they fell short against Arkansas in the electric Bud Walton Arena last week, the Longhorns have proven they aren’t shaken by road crowds. Tonight’s top-ten contest will take place in front of the craziest crowd the Lloyd Noble Center has seen in years, so the Longhorns will have to maintain that same poise when the Sooners go on their inevitable scoring runs.