After suffering a crushing road loss to the rival Texas A&M Aggies on Monday night, the Texas Longhorns sit in a precarious position. At just one game above the .500 mark in league play, they are in significant danger of missing out on a first-round tournament bye for only the third time in the Big 12 Conference’s 13-year history. Even more chilling is the very real possibility that the Longhorns could melt down just enough this February to miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998.

There are some who would say tonight is a “make or break” game for this team. That’s only half correct. The Longhorns can certainly make their season with an upset victory over the Oklahoma Sooners, a team that is ranked second nationally and is only two days away from ascending to the No. 1 position. But a loss tonight is not the last straw. Although the bookies are favoring Texas from one to two points, make no mistake about it. This is a game that the Sooners are expected to win.

So while the potential reward tonight is huge, the risk is not nearly as great. Texas would still need to win three of its remaining four games and probably even a conference tournament contest to be on the safe side of this year’s soft bubble. But a win tonight? A win could certainly change the picture…

The previous meeting

The two teams first met on January 17th in a game many expected would help establish a favorite in the conference race. But Texas looked awful coming right out of the gates, and an irritated Rick Barnes benched most of his starters to send a message. The fact that Harrison Smith played fourteen minutes in the game should be a crystal-clear indication of just how annoyed the head coach was during the first half. Heading to the locker room, Texas was already down eleven points to the Sooners.

In the second half, the starters seemed to get the message, playing with heart and determination as they whittled the lead down to only four points with just under 12 minutes to play. But then came the meltdown. The Sooners reeled off twelve straight points and kept the Longhorns at arm’s length the rest of the way, cruising to a convincing 78-63 win.

The game showcased just how balanced this year’s Oklahoma team is, with four of the five starters contributing 15 points or more. Superstar Blake Griffin led the way with one of his countless double-doubles, scoring 20 points to go with 10 rebounds.

Since then…

Oklahoma has not lost a single conference game this season, although they have made it interesting a few times. On the road, they struggled with Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, while letting the Aggies and Colorado Buffaloes hang around in games at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman. But in every single instance, the Sooners pulled away late on the strength of solid rebounding and efficient possessions. Oklahoma has proven that even if they find themselves in a dogfight as the minutes tick away in tonight’s ballgame, you’d still want to bet the house on them.

The biggest storylines since the last time these two teams met are the emergence of Austin Johnson and the addition of Juan Pattillo to the lineup. Johnson, the team’s senior point guard, has absolutely exploded in conference play. He is averaging nearly 12 points per contest in Big 12 games and is shooting 46% from behind the arc. But perhaps most importantly, his assist-to-turnover ratio is a serviceable 2.5-to-1, an impressive achievement for someone who was known as a turnover machine during his first three seasons.

The Sooners also gained a huge advantage when they decided to take the redshirt off of Pattillo, a 6’6″ forward. He has stepped right into the rotation and gives Oklahoma some much-needed depth. Not only is Pattillo an extra body for a team that once had a short bench, but he can actually play. He’s a force inside, but also has a great midrange jumper. He’s another quality shot blocker that pairs nicely with the Griffin brothers down low, and his deft passing is an asset for a team that runs a highly-efficient half-court set.

If you’re looking for a refresher on the rest of the Sooners and their style of basketball, be sure to check out the game preview from the first match-up in Norman.

Keys to the game

Don’t put the Sooners on the line – As we pointed out in that first game preview, Oklahoma owns a distinct advantage at the charity stripe. On the season, they are averaging 9.6 more free throw attempts per game than their opponents, and you can be sure that the Sooners will be looking to exploit that advantage tonight. There is a severe drop-off in talent after the core group of Longhorns, so they simply cannot afford to rack up fouls while sending OU to the line for free points.

Keep it close early – Oklahoma has jumped out to huge leads in many of their games, and that is the one way that the Sooners can quickly mitigate the crowd factor in tonight’s contest. OU has struggled on the road, and the Frank Erwin Center is the largest arena in the conference. If Texas wants to exploit that home-court advantage, they will need to keep the score close.

Defend the three-point line – The Sooners are going to get a ton of points in the paint. It’s simply a given fact that their opponents must find a way to deal with. But in the first match-up, Texas allowed OU to shoot 40% from behind the arc, with many of the three-pointers coming at inopportune moments. Texas is already going to have its hands full in this one, so they simply cannot afford to let Tony Crocker, Willie Warren, and Johnson to make things even more difficult with a barrage of threes.