The Texas Longhorns return to the Frank Erwin Center for their final home game of the year, just one win away from their tenth consecutive 20-win season. That of course makes it Senior Night for the Longhorns, who will be bidding adieu to A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Abrams is banged up from a late-game injury suffered against Oklahoma State, but he will be on the court tonight after his availability was a question mark all day.

The bad news, though, is that Gary Johnson likely won’t play. Johnson’s absence was painfully noticeable in the last two games for Texas, who struggled to establish an inside presence against much smaller teams from Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The Baylor Bears are also a smaller, guard-oriented team, and having Johnson available to take advantage of Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy would have been incredibly helpful.

For Texas, tonight’s game takes on massive importance not only for the magical twenty-win mark, but also because a loss tonight could seriously hamper the team’s NCAA chances. As mentioned in this afternoon’s Fast Break, the general opinion is that one win in the final two games will move the Longhorns into “lock” territory for the Big Dance. But a loss tonight could spell disaster with a road trip to Kansas looming just six days from now.

By the numbers

The Bears are a team that lives and dies by the three. They take nearly 40% of their shots from behind the arc and are fairly successful from that distance, hitting 36.4% of their attempts so far. It’s not an overstatement to say that Baylor is completely glued to the perimeter, oftentimes to their own detriment. Even if the longball isn’t falling, the Bear guards will continue to fire them off as their opponents build larger and larger leads.

Baylor’s biggest weakness is an incredibly porous defense, something that many pundits thought was going to be a point of emphasis in the offseason for Coach Scott Drew. If it was, the numbers certainly don’t show it, as they are averaging 82.6 points allowed in their 11 losses this year. A big reason for their struggles defensively is an inability to rebound off their opponents’ misses, giving teams multiple chances to score each trip down the floor.

Those rebounding struggles are not limited to the defensive end, though. Baylor opponents are grabbing more than three extra rebounds per game in relation to the Bears, and its hindering their formerly high-powered offense. Without the key offensive rebounds off of missed three-pointers, Baylor is often limited to one-and-done possessions before having to hustle back and play D.

The starting five

The leader of the team is senior Curtis Jerrells, an Austin product who will be playing in front of his friends and family at the Erwin Center for the last time. He’s fairly strong for a guy his size, so he is able to finish through contact when he drives the lane. But what Jerrells loves even more than penetrating and drawing fouls is kicking it out to find his open three-point shooters when the defense collapses on him. He leads the team with more than five assists per game, and his ability to slash is the key to Baylor’s long-range threat.

Joining Jerrells in the backcourt is another senior, Henry Dugat, who has been struggling through conference play. Just last season, Dugat was hitting 38.6% of his three pointers, and he made over 43% of his attempts in non-conference play this year. But once league competition began, he completely fell off the map, sinking just 19.5% of his threes in Big 12 games. Dugat can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim, though, so he’s still able to help out his team despite the slump.

Junior guard Tweety Carter is a heck of a player and a likely preseason All-Conference selection next season. For now, he’s content being one of many talented Bears in the backcourt, but he still manages to turn in a few highlight-reel plays every night. He’s definitely the flashiest slashing threat that Baylor has, but his ability to hit the three from well beyond NBA range keeps defenses honest. He can hit the runners and floaters, and his mid-range shooting is just as good. If the recent trend continues where a player has a breakout game against Texas, Carter is the most likely candidate.

In the frontcourt, Baylor relies on a couple of players who are only scoring threats within a few feet of the basket. Forwards Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy are both solid defenders and shot blockers, but on the offensive end they live solely on putbacks and bunnies. Rogers has a bit more talent with the ball and loves to sink the short hook shots, but if Texas can keep these two off of the offensive glass, the Longhorns should be able to limit their production.

Off the bench

One of the best sixth men in the conference is LaceDarius Dunn, a sophomore who is the team’s second-leading scorer despite coming off of the bench. Dunn can hit shots from anywhere on the floor, can create his own looks, and knows how to get to the rim. The only knock on his offensive game is the fact that his shot comes from a nearly set position, so he has trouble getting it over lengthy defenders. With Johnson likely not playing tonight, Texas probably can’t find anyone who has not only the length to stifle Dunn, but also the speed to contain him. Hopefully this doesn’t result in a career night from the super soph.

With Dunn and the starting five eating up so many minutes for Coach Drew, the rest of the bench sees extremely limited action for Baylor. Anthony Jones has been earning a little more playing time in conference games, but the highly-touted freshman has still yet to make a major impact. He’s a string bean at 6’10”, but he’s incredibly lengthy and is a great shot blocker. He’s even a threat from three-point range, although he’s only pulled the trigger a couple of times per game.

Josh Lomers is another big man down low for Baylor, but even in his junior year he still looks awkward and overmatched. He’s a bit clunky, is famous for picking up stupid fouls, and looks completely lost when teams double down on him in the post. Lomers might eat up a few minutes, but he’s far from a game-changer.

Mamadou Diene is the other viable post option that Drew has on the bench, but since he was replaced by Acy in the starting lineup, he has seen only a few minutes per game. Diene is another lanky guy who can alter shots down low, but his offense leaves quite a bit to be desired.

Keys to the game

Crash the glass – Baylor’s weakness on the boards dovetails nicely with Texas’ strong rebounding numbers, but the Longhorns must absolutely dominate their opponents in this category tonight. The Bears love the three-pointer, and Texas is famous for giving them up in bunches. The number one defense against that is to limit Baylor to one-shot possessions, so the Longhorns have to grab those boards.

Convert the easy buckets – Texas could have easily won the game on Saturday night in Stillwater if it had made just three or four of the point-blank shots that were missed throughout the game. The Longhorns not only missed the numerous easy looks, but compounded the problem by not following them with tip-ins or even rebounds. If Texas gets that many inside looks tonight and is able to put them in, their field goal percentage will be through the roof.

Control the ball – This key isn’t really a reflection on Baylor’s defensive pressure, but rather their miserly attitude with the ball. The Bears simply do not give up possessions with dumb mistakes. Unfortunately, Texas has had a problem doing exactly that when they have the ball. If the Longhorns do not limit their unforced errors in this game, Baylor will have a huge advantage in turnover margin and a ton of extra possessions.