Texas and Iowa met in this city and this tournament just four years ago, with the Longhorns claiming a 68-59 win and the tournament crown. A lot has changed since then, as what was once the Guardian’s Classic, played at Municipal Auditorium, is now the CBE Classic, played at the sparkling Sprint Center. And while the names and buildings have changed over the years, so has the stature of a once-proud Iowa Hawkeye basketball program.

Todd Lickliter is in his third year of coaching at Iowa City, and things are becoming more difficult every season. Just weeks after the end of a disappointing 15-17 campaign in 2008-09, the Hawkeyes lost four key players. Leading scorer Jake Kelly transferred to Indiana State after his mother’s death in a plane crash, wanting to be closer to his family. Starting point guard Jeff Peterson bolted for Arkansas, with his departure rumored to be the result of dissatisfaction with Lickliter’s coaching style. Juniors Jermain Davis and David Palmer also left the program, heading to D-II schools in a search for more playing time.

The sudden roster turnover left the Hawkeyes with a young and inexperienced team, devoid of its former leaders. And if the summer of turmoil weren’t enough, things turned even uglier once the season tipped off. For the first time since 1931, the Hawkeyes started a season with back-to-back home losses, falling short against UT-San Antonio and Duquesne in the CBE’s opening round games.

By the numbers

In typical Big 10 style, Iowa is a team that relies on excellent defense. The other half of their equation is an offense predicated on driving and dishing, looking for spot-up shooters who can knock down the three or the open jumper. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, their shooting has been abysmal to start the year. Iowa is hitting just 29.1% of their attempts from behind the arc this season, but may have turned the corner in Friday night’s 68-46 win over Bowling Green. In that one, the Hawks made 48% of their threes.

Another reason for Iowa’s anemic start is a problem hanging on to the basketball. They are coughing it up on 22.7% of their possessions, which is a problem when your style of play involves grinding out low-scoring wins. That slowdown tempo means that Iowa has less possessions to work with, so the importance of each and every turnover is magnified. Fortunately for Coach Lickliter, this year’s Texas team has actually had even more issues with ball control than his team, as the Horns own a 23.8% turnover percentage in their first two games.

The Texas tempo numbers aren’t that much higher than Iowa’s, something that is skewed in small part by the choppy nature of the Western Carolina game. The Longhorns do have the athletes to get out and run the floor, however, which will play in their favor if they can dictate the pace of tonight’s game. A slow, half-court battle increases the odds of an Iowa upset, so the Longhorns must control the flow.

Meet the Hawkeyes

With so much turnover on the roster, Coach Lickliter is experimenting with his starting lineups early in the year. Through the first three games, he’s thrown out three different starting combinations. Only seven players saw significant minutes in the win over Bowling Green, though, so he may have finally found the formula that works.

Cully Payne runs the show at the point, despite being just a freshman. The Peterson transfer meant that Payne would not have the luxury of a slow development, and he’s been handed the reins immediately. He’s struggling to adjust to the college game so far, turning it over three times in his debut while failing to log a single assist. Since then, he’s looked marginally more comfortable, but still has just 10 assists on the year to go with his nine TOs. Payne is also expected to be one of the three-point threats that can knock it down when the Hawkeyes drive and dish, but so far has yet to do so. He’s just 3-of-13 behind the arc this season, with all of his makes coming on opening night.

Anthony Tucker is a sophomore who is being looked at as a major scoring threat from the two-guard position. Although he’s in his second year of eligibility, Tucker is essentially just a freshman. Last year, he missed half of the season due to poor grades, and was also suspended for an alcohol-related incident. While he started the year coming off the bench, Tucker has been in the starting lineup the last two games. He’s a solid outside shooter who is still shaking the rust off, as indicated by his 4-of-19 start from behind the arc. But like the entire Hawkeye team, he looks to have re-discovered his shot following a 3-of-6 night from long range against BGSU.

The biggest returning star for the Hawkeyes is sophomore Matt Gatens, a sharpshooter who has started every game of his collegiate career. He was named to the Big 10 All-Freshman team last season, a year in which he averaged 10.8 points and 3.8 rebounds per contest. He’s practically automatic from the line, where he made 90% of his attempts last year and has failed to miss in 13 attempts this season.

If Gatens’ solid freshman year made him a leader, Jarryd Cole may be another one by default. The junior center is the only starting upperclassman, and one of only two upperclassmen who has even played this season. He’s not a prototypical center, as he’s just 6’7″ and can often be found setting screens on the perimeter. Iowa likes to use him for those ball screens not only to free up the dribble-drive, but also to unclog the lane by pulling taller defenders out with him.

Although Cole is often setting the offense in motion from somewhere around the arc, he’s still the team’s best option on the glass. With 8.7 boards per game, he’s grabbing nearly a quarter of the team’s rebounds, giving him a fair number of putback attempts when the rest of the offense is struggling. He’s going to be mismatched against the bigger Texas frontcourt, but with a lack of depth behind him, he’ll have to produce.

Brennan Cougill is a freshman forward who started his first game of the year on Friday night, and will likely stay in the starting five thanks to hard-nosed, hustle play. He’s still a raw talent who is awkward with his back to the basket and misses a lot of easy looks, but he’s constantly crashing the boards and earning extra possessions for the Hawkeyes. Against Bowling Green, Cougill played 30 minutes and turned in a solid line of eight points and eight rebounds.

The only upperclassman besides Cole that has seen the court this year is Devan Bawinkel, a senior guard whose only job is to knock down threes. Last season, 51 of his 52 shots were from behind the arc, and he did not have a single free throw attempt. Bawinkel, who was replaced in the starting lineup by Tucker, is solely a spot-up shooter. Texas will need to keep an eye on him, but will also benefit from knowing that he isn’t a threat to drive the lane or really even try to attack off the dribble. Like the rest of his team, Bawinkel might finally be heating up from behind the arc, as he hit 2-of-3 against Bowling Green after starting the year just 1-of-5 from long range.

The most impressive newcomer has been Eric May, a 6’5″ freshman who is listed as a guard but plays much bigger. He has a nice touch, as his 46% shooting mark attests, but he also attacks the glass like a fiesty forward. Even though he’s smaller than most of Texas’ players, he’ll be a tough guy to guard. He’s 40% from long range, but he can attack off the dribble if you play him too tightly on the perimeter. On a team that is so horribly undersized, May’s constant motor and tenacious play make him a valuable asset off the bench.

Aaron Fuller is a sophomore forward who started the first two games of the year, but picked up two quick fouls in both of them. May responded off the bench in those two games, but Cougill ultimately replaced Fuller in the starting lineup on Friday night. Aaron actually saw the floor for just three minutes in the win over Bowling Green, so he may have played himself right out of the rotation.

Keys to the game

With such a mismatch in size, the obvious key for Texas is to exploit the height advantage. The Longhorns really struggled to take advantage of the mismatch against Western Carolina, making Dexter Pittman‘s 17 minutes nearly useless. Tonight, Texas needs to pound the ball inside against the tiny Iowa frontcourt and must dominate the rebounding battle once again.

In addition, Texas will need to play strong perimeter defense to ensure that the Hawkeyes don’t hang around with a bevy of threes. Their roster is loaded with three-point gunners, all of whom have been struggling so far this year. The uncomfortable conclusion you can reach with those facts is that the Hawkeyes are due for a breakout game behind the arc. If they have that kind of night against Texas, it could make things dicey.

Finally, Texas must control the tempo. As we mentioned earlier, fewer possessions only serve to minimize the natural advantages that the Longhorns have. If Texas can get out and run a little bit, there is no way that the Iowa offense can score enough to keep up.

Tip time tonight is officially 8:45 P.M., but it’s much more likely that the game will be starting at 9 P.M. or later. The first semifinal of the night, which has Pitt facing off against Wichita State, doesn’t even tip until 6:30 P.M. Add in the thirty-minute window between games, and you can see how tonight’s contest might be wrapping up a little closer to midnight.

Post-game react and the championship or consolation preview will be headed your way tomorrow.