The Longhorns return to the Erwin Center tonight, fresh off an impressive thirteen-point win over a top ten opponent in the North Carolina Tar Heels. But rather than getting a few days to unwind and enjoy the big victory, Texas will be immediately tested once again. This evening, their latest top-ten battle is with the Michigan State Spartans, a program that has been a thorn in the side of Coach Rick Barnes over the last three years. Each of those seasons, the Spartans narrowly won on a neutral court, with the three victories coming by just a combined twelve points.

Michigan State lost a lot of senior leadership and presence in the paint following last season’s Final Four run. Guard Travis Walton was the team’s steady leader in 2009, while big men Goran Sutan and Marquise Gray played important roles down low. Their departures leave the Spartans without a reliable center, and according to Coach Tom Izzo, also leave his team without a vocal leader.

By the numbers

Fans of college basketball know that Izzo is a disciple of defense. Every year, the Spartans are a frustrating match-up for opponents, as they pressure out past the perimeter and force countless turnovers. This season, however, Michigan State has added an impressive offense to match. In fact, the Spartan offense is actually ranked higher nationally (27th) than their defense (43rd) in adjusted efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy.

With the newfound offensive firepower, Michigan State is pushing the tempo a little bit more this season. As members of the Big 10 Conference, the Spartans have often played grind-it-out basketball games with their league opponents. This year, the Big 10 is going to have to hustle to keep up. Michigan State’s 70.9 possessions per game is 84th-quickest in the nation, and is a massive shift from Izzo’s previous style. During the last six seasons, MSU has averaged just 65.5 possessions per game and never finished higher than 126th nationally in tempo, while placing 240th or lower in three of those years.

The thing the Spartans do best, though, is rebound. They are ranked eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, as they grab over 43% of their own misses. That dominance extends to the defensive glass, allowing Michigan State to enjoy a rebounding margin of +11.2, which is 6th-best in the country. Just behind the Spartans in the national rankings are the Longhorns, who have a margin of +11.1 boards per game. Tonight’s contest could very well be decided by which team imposes their will on the glass.

Meet the Spartans

Coach Izzo has been tinkering with his lineup all season long, looking for the right combination as he reloads his team and searches for that aforementioned missing leadership. Nine different Spartans have started during the team’s first eleven games, although only the core rotation of seven players are averaging more than 20 minutes per contest.

Junior guard Kalin Lucas is the one player that has started each game for Michigan State. Named the Big 10’s Player of the Year as just a sophomore, the speedy little guard has a deadly shot and seemingly omniscient court vision. Saturday’s victory over IPFW marked the 21st-consecutive game where Lucas scored in double digits, and he is leading the team with an average of 16.1 points per game. He added muscle over the offseason, so the 6-foot guard is also able to fight through contact when he attacks the rim this year.

Joining Lucas in the backcourt is Chris Allen, a 6’3″ junior who isn’t afraid to battle inside with bigger opponents. But what Allen is best known for is his jump shot, a skill that has unfortunately eluded him over the last season and a half. He broke his foot in the NCAA title game against North Carolina, and perhaps that is the reason why he has struggled from the floor this season. He’s shown flashes of his former brilliance at times, but has played inconsistently enough to log a 46% success rate from the field, including just 34% from behind the arc. Allen is certainly a dangerous man who is due to break out, so the Longhorns must keep an eye on him this evening.

Adding to the depth in the Spartan backcourt is Korie Lucious, a sophomore guard who, like Lucas, is not just a great facilitator, but also a dangerous shooter. While Korie has hit just 35% of his three-pointers this year and only 36% of all his shots, his jumper is far better than those numbers indicate. Like Allen, Lucious is liable to get hot at any moment, and Texas can’t afford to let him do so. Also just like Allen, Lucious is recovering from a broken foot, and that could be affecting his accuracy.

Down low, big man Raymar Morgan is the only senior on Michigan State who plays any significant minutes. He’s a big, strong forward who is a handful down low, but his accurate midrange jumper makes him even more dangerous. This season, he’s averaging nearly eleven points and six rebounds per game. His ability (or inability) to turn in that kind of performance against the Texas frontcourt will be key to Michigan State’s chances tonight.

The other big force in the paint is forward Draymond Green. Although he has started just three games, he’s second on the team in scoring and leads the team in rebounding. At 6’6″, he’s a bit undersized for the power forward role, but can do that when the Spartans want to run with a smaller lineup. When Michigan State wants to go bigger, Green’s surprising abilities with the basketball even allow Coach Izzo to use him as a point forward. If ballhandling, rebounding, scoring, and assists aren’t enough of a contribution from Green, he even chips in with his quick hands on defense, to the tune of a team-leading 16 steals. With tonight’s big game on national television, this could be a breakout game for the well-rounded sophomore.

Durrell Summers is another ‘tweener for Coach Izzo, who has the player listed as a 6’4″ guard. He’s quick and can take defenders off the dribble, and has bulked up prior to his junior season so that he’s able to body up more inside. He has a lot of length that will frustrate the Texas offense, and incredible hops that could lead to some impressive dunks and blocks in tonight’s game. Like Allen and Lucious, Summers is a solid shooter who has struggled so far this season. But as Texas fans can surely remember, Durrell can hit the clutch shots, like the three that knocked off the Longhorns in Houston last December.

The final member of the core rotation is power forward Delvon Roe, who has started nine games and is averaging 22 minutes per contest. The sophomore has high expectations this year, following a freshman season in which he was adjusting to a surgically-repaired knee. Once a top-ten recruit, Roe is quicker and more agile than most power forwards, allowing him to defend further from the paint and also draw out opponents when he has the ball.

While he’s averaging just eight points and eight boards per game, those numbers have been limited by an unfortunate problem with fouls. Roe picked up his fifth personal against both North Carolina and Gonzaga with seven minutes still left on the clock, and also fouled out against Florida Gulf Coast. Against the deep Texas frontcourt, Delvon will have to be careful not to pile up the personals once again.

Averaging only nine minutes per game, freshman center Garrick Sherman is a work-in-progress that Izzo hopes will anchor his frontcourt in years to come. As a high school senior in Ohio last year, Sherman was the Co-Player of the Year, and his fundamentals and footwork certainly seem to be sound. It appears, however, that Garrick gets overly nervous at times and rushes with the basketball. When he slows down, he’s actually been fairly impressive, and his eight point performance in just eight minutes on Saturday could be a sign that the light has finally come on for this youngster.

The other newcomer at center is freshman Derrick Nix, a 6’8″, 280-pound player that will remind fans of Dexter Pittman as a freshman. Nix was as heavy as 340 pounds in high school and is still adjusting to his new body and the speed of Michigan State basketball, but he is highly effective in short bursts. Nix swats a ton of shots down low, and has even had a few nice steals early in the season.

On offense, he still seems awkward at times, likely as a result of having to post up against college defenders instead of just barreling through them like he did in high school. If Nix and Pittman are on the floor at the same time tonight, it ought to be entertaining to watch.

Keys to the game

As we mentioned earlier, these two teams are both dominant on the glass. While it’s highly likely this will lead to a very close battle on the boards, if either team is able to hold a significant rebounding edge, it could be the difference. Texas can easily frustrate their opponents if they can manage to shut down the highly-effective Michigan State offensive rebounders and eliminate a ton of extra Spartan chances.

With so many skilled shooters who have struggled over the first month of the year, the Longhorns also have to be worried about a sudden flurry of offense from the outside. Texas needs to shut down the three-point shooters, especially after allowing North Carolina to hit 54% of their long-range attempts on Saturday afternoon.

While the Longhorns should be worried about the Michigan State backcourt, they are likely giddy over the advantage their frontcourt has in this match-up. Texas should attack the Spartans inside, drawing fouls on Roe and Green so that Sherman and Nix are forced to play a bigger role. The Longhorns should enjoy a nice edge on points scored in the paint, and getting the thin Michigan State frontcourt in foul trouble should only make that easier.