The Longhorns march into Big 12 play this afternoon with a perfect 14-0 mark, tied for the school’s best start in the modern era. Texas opened the season with 20 wins in 1932 and with a school-record 23 wins in 1923. While a chance to match those rarefied numbers is still weeks away and would require some tough road wins, the Longhorns do have a shot to storm into conference play with an opening slate that includes Colorado, Iowa State, and Texas A&M.

This afternoon’s opener comes against the Buffaloes, who were picked by most outlets to finish dead last in the conference. Don’t be surprised, however, if Jeff Bzdelik‘s team manages to climb out of the league cellar this year. Last season, the Buffs put scares into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, despite having a very young team. They have added a solid five-man recruiting class to the mix, and finally have the offensive potency to move past the slow, grind-it-out style of basketball that Bzdelik had to implement in past seasons just to keep his team in the games.

Historical numbers are certainly not on Colorado’s side this afternoon. The Buffaloes have lost 26-straight road games in conference play, dating all the way back to January of 2006. Colorado has also lost twelve straight conference openers, while the Longhorns have won eleven consecutive home openers in conference play. If you put any stock into historical trends, things don’t look good for the visitors.

By the numbers

As we’ve mentioned already, the Buffaloes are no longer a slow-down team that hopes to win a game in the 50- or 60-point range. Their 69 possessions per game is soundly in the middle of the NCAA, although it is still a good deal slower than Texas’ 76-plus possessions per contest. While the Buffaloes may try to slow things down just a bit to mitigate the talent discrepancies in this game, this season they are certainly more capable of playing an up-tempo game with the Longhorns.

The thing that the Buffaloes do best is earn points at the line. They are one of the top 25 teams in the country at getting to the foul stripe, as their quick dribble drives and constant motion on offense often leads to opponents getting behind the play and hacking in desperation. Once Colorado gets to the line, they also make it worth their time. The Buffs are second in the nation with a 78.2% success rate at the stripe, and even led the country at one point earlier in the week.

Colorado is a smaller team that typically runs four guards and one undersized forward. Many of these “guards” actually play more of a swingman role for the team, but they are usually hanging around the perimeter unless they are driving to the basket. Even the Buffalo post player is often found near the three-point line, setting screens that open up driving lanes and get the team’s offense running. All of this adds up to absolutely awful offensive rebounding numbers. The Buffaloes grab barely more than a quarter of their misses, which is only 318th out of the 347 D-I schools.

The Buffaloes also make up for their size disadvantages by running a ton of different zone looks that confuse opponents and allow them to press the issue far from the basket. Unfortunately, when bigger teams manage to work it inside, the fouls pile up quickly for Colorado. The free-throw rate for the Buffaloes on defense is 309th in the nation, and the team’s platoon of big men has combined to foul out seven times this year.

Meet the Buffaloes

The biggest reason for the improvement in Colorado’s performance is the addition of five newcomers to the roster, although freshman Shannon Sharpe is medically redshirting this year after pre-season knee surgery. Coach Bzdelik addressed the team’s lack of height by adding 6’11” Aussie freshman Shane Harris-Tunks. He still needs some seasoning, but already has a good skill set thanks to his time spent at the Australian Institute of Sport.

Junior-college transfer Marcus Relphorde adds a tenacious rebounder to the roster, along with a solid passer in the high post. He also brings three-point range, which is a key in Bzdelik’s offense. While Relphorde can knock down the long-range shots, he’s struggled a bit from behind the arc so far this year. He’s made just 32.5% of his attempts, but is capable of much more. He certainly knows that, as he keeps firing up the long bombs — so many, in fact, that he’s second on the team in attempts.

The jewel of the class, however, is freshman Alec Burks. In his senior season of high school, Burks was named Gatorade’s Player of the Year in the state of Missouri, and he’s quickly making an impact in the college ranks. At 6’6″, he actually leads the team in rebounds and is second in scoring with 16.3 points per game. He is quick off the dribble, which opens up his teammates for good looks when he penetrates. His long wingspan is also very valuable when Colorado throws out their 1-3-1 zone and traps opponents on the wings.

The star of team is still Cory Higgins, who can beat you any way you want it. He’s a solid shooter, hitting just a shade under 50% from the field, and worked hard on his outside shot in the offseason. That work has led to a 40% mark from behind the arc this season, up from 36% last year. He’s also nearly automatic when he gets to the line, where last season he had streaks of 45 and 23 consecutive makes. This year, he’s knocked down 86% of his attempts from the line, and his quick attack on the dribble-drive means that defenders are often sending him there.

The other thing Higgins brings to the table is a set of really quick hands. He’s leading the team in steals, and was even near the top of the Big 12 ranks in that category last season. Texas has shown its moments of sloppiness and carelessness with the ball, so they will have to be careful when the junior guard is nearby on defense.

The Buffaloes score their points by driving and finding the open man, and often when the defenses collapse that means the open man is somewhere behind the arc. Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, but so far this season they have shown that they are content with stopping teams inside and daring opponents to beat them from outside. This could lead to a big day for Dwight Thorne II, who led the team in three-pointers last year and also was tops in accuracy from behind the arc. At the beginning of this season, he was the team’s starting point guard, but recently sophomore Nate Tomlinson has reclaimed those duties. As the sixth man, Thorne could be a key to this game with his long-range marksmanship.

The big man opening up Thorne on the perimeter is Austin Dufault, the lone forward in the starting lineup. Although he’s the team’s tallest starter at 6’9″, his biggest role in the offense is setting screens outside. Dufault was named Mr. Basketball in the state of North Dakota as a high school senior, and it’s his outside shot that sets him apart from other big men. That long-range threat is huge in the Colorado offense, as teams who choose to double the ballhandler after a screen will often pay when Dufault knocks down a triple. The big man is also second in rebounding on a team that will have issues with that this afternoon, so he’ll have to come up huge on the glass against the Texas frontcourt.

Sophomore point guard Tomlinson has made huge strides after a rookie year where he often struggled with the new offense he was asked to run. In addition to being a solid floor general, he’s also a solid shooter. Tomlinson takes less than five shots a game, though, so his scoring impact is usually negligible. If Texas leaves him open, you can probably bank on the Aussie sophomore tickling the twine.

Also coming off the bench for Coach Bzdelik are Keegan Hornbuckle and Casey Crawford. Hornbuckle is the fifth member of the recruiting class, and is a quality-shooting small forward. He has fairly limited minutes, though, so he will likely have a small impact on today’s game. Crawford is in his second year at CU after transferring from Wake Forest. He’s used mostly to spell Dufault, and is another big man who can knock down the three when he’s out there setting screens.

Keys to the game

The biggest advantage Texas has in this game — besides the talent differential — is a much bigger lineup. The Longhorns must dominate the rebounding battle, especially on the defensive end. Colorado is a very well-coached team that is loaded with good shooters, so limiting the Buffaloes to one-and-done possessions should squash any thoughts of an upset.

Beyond crashing the glass, the other main focus for Texas will be shutting down Higgins. In Boulder last February, the guard went off for 34 points as the Buffs pushed the Longhorns to overtime. This Texas team is much more sound on defense, but they had a lot of problems with another quick guard on Tuesday night, Arkansas’ Courtney Fortson. The Longhorns found themselves behind the play quite often, and their frustration fouls piled up. Texas will need to communicate on defense and help each other out if they hope to limit Higgins’ effectiveness.

While it’s been an issue all season long, Texas has certainly improved their free throw shooting in the last few games. As often as Colorado fouls opponents, though, tonight knocking down the freebies will be even more key than usual. The Buffaloes can level the talent disparity by making Texas earn their points, so we’ll likely see a ton of free throw attempts for the Horns this afternoon. Make them, and Texas should cruise to victory. Miss too many, and the final score will be a lot closer than it should be.