The Longhorns survived a scare and an atrocious shooting night on Saturday, as they escaped the Frank Erwin Center with their perfect mark intact after an overtime victory against Texas A&M. Tonight, however, they face a much bigger test from the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that could even crack the top ten of the polls later this afternoon. If the Longhorns have an offensive performance like they did on Saturday night, there’s a very good chance that Fred Bramlage Coliseum will be the site of their first loss.

By the numbers

The Wildcats are a very scary match-up for the Longhorns, and it’s not just because K-State seems to win against Texas in every sport. Kansas State has the 12th-most efficient offense in the nation, and their defense is nearly as good, checking in at 31st in the country. Combining those efficiency numbers gives the ‘Cats a +0.265 differential per possession, and as a result, they push the tempo to exploit that advantage as often as they can.

Last year’s K-State team finished tops in the nation when it came to offensive rebounding, and this year’s squad is leading the way again. The Wildcats grab an insane 43.5% of their chances on the offensive glass, so even when their highly-efficient offense manages to miss a shot, they typically get another chance to score.

If you look at KSU Coach Frank Martin, you could probably guess that his teams play a physical brand of basketball, most likely because he looks like he could have a bit role on The Sopranos as one of Tony’s enforcers. If you made that guess, you’d be quite the smart cookie, as K-State games typically turn into foul-fests where both teams take approximately 3,912 free throws and the game lasts four hours. The Wildcats are the best team in the country when it comes to getting to the line, and one of the absolute worst when it comes to sending their opponents there.

“Oh no!” Longhorn Fan exclaimed to himself after reading the last paragraph. “My team couldn’t make free throws on a Little Tykes basket!” Calm those fears, though, Longhorn Fan. While Texas shoots just 63.4% from the line, the Wildcats aren’t much better, making 66.2% of their attempts. Missed free throws could certainly play a factor in the final outcome, but it might not be quite the disadvantage Texas fans would expect.

One other thing Kansas State excels at is blocking shots. When the ‘Cats aren’t fouling opponents in the paint, they are typically swatting shots into the twelfth row. K-State opponents are stuffed on 13.5% of their possessions, a rate that makes the Wildcats the 30th-best shot blocking crew in the nation. The Longhorns, meanwhile, have a 14.2% mark and are ranked 21st. There is a good possibility that some poor, unsuspecting KSU student could have his fake beard knocked right off tonight by a high-speed rejection.

Meet the ‘Cats

While this section is called “Meet the ‘Cats,” Texas fans need no introduction to Denis Clemente. The lightning-quick guard from Puerto Rico tied the Big 12’s scoring mark with 44 points in Austin last year, shooting his way onto the national scene while simultaneously ruining my 100th-consecutive game. Thanks, buddy.

Clemente can score from anywhere on the floor, although it’s his soft touch on the running floater that often gives opponents their biggest headaches. He can blow past just about any defender off the dribble, and has a tremendous ability to finish in traffic. Fortunately for Texas fans, Clemente has struggled a little bit this season in comparison to last year, as his shooting percentage has dropped to just 38% and his three-point percentage has fallen under the 30% mark.

The superstar this season for Kansas State, though, is junior guard Jacob Pullen, the man being honored by the aforementioned “Beard Out.” Pullen is leading the team with almost 20 points a game and is knocking down over 44% of his long-range bombs. While last season he was an absolute turnover machine, he’s improved his ballhandling a bit and this year actually has a turnover-to-assist ratio that isn’t approaching negative infinity. Like Clemente, Pullen is very quick with the basketball, and the Texas guards will have to work very hard at keeping him in front of them.

After sitting out a season following his transfer from UConn, big man Curtis Kelly has been a huge addition to the roster. Last year’s Wildcat team lacked any sort of identity inside, and this 6’8″ forward has certainly brought that to the table. He’s leading the team with more than six rebounds a game, and is a great defender down low, having already logged 29 blocks.

At small forward, Dominique Sutton is having a solid junior season. He’s chipping in eight points and six boards in 23 minutes per game, and has started in every contest. He spent the summer playing overseas with Pullen on an all-star team, and the extra months of game action are clearly paying off. Sutton looks faster and more sound on defense, while his ballhandling has also improved. His assist-to-TO ratio has nearly doubled in just one season.

The center position for Coach Martin is played mostly by committee, but that depth allows him to employ the physical style that makes the Wildcats so intimidating down low. Their biggest presence is freshman Jordan Henriquez-Roberts, a 7-footer who needs to add some muscle, but still provides twelve minutes a game. He’s the team’s second-best shot blocker with 16 swats, but Ken Pomeroy’s stats point out that when playing time is considered, Henriquez is best on the team in that category. The big man still needs a ton of seasoning when he’s got the ball, but he is definitely going to make an impact on the defensive end tonight.

Just 6’7″, Jamar Samuels is a sixth man that is versatile enough to fill in at the five when K-State wants to go smaller, but is most at home giving valuable bench minutes as a forward. He’s third on the team in scoring despite only starting in one game, and his 4.6 rebounds are best among non-starters. While Samuels often tries to attack off the dribble from the wings, he handles the ball about as well as Damion James circa 2006, and as a result, he is one of the team’s biggest offenders when it comes to turnovers.

Inside, 6’10” senior Luis Colon is another option at the five who is a defensive specialist. At 265 pounds, he’s a physical player that loves to block shots and make life miserable for opposing big men. He also likes punching people, although Ty at Bring On the Cats accurately points out that Colon seems to have funneled that aggression into productive basketball play in recent years. When Big Lu and Big Pitt tangle down low tonight, seismologists may note a spike of activity near the Little Apple.

Freshman Wally Judge was a much heralded recruit coming into the season, and with McDonald’s All-American honors, why wouldn’t he be? But so far his play has left a lot to be desired, as the freshman is picking up fouls more often than points. He’s averaging just 12.5 minutes per game, but still manages to lead the team in personals by a wide margin. His 52 fouls are six more than Samuels has, and he’s done it in eleven less minutes per game.

Freshman guard Rodney McGruder plays about as often as Judge, and provides a scoring spark from outside when he comes off the bench. McGruder loves to light it up from the corner, and his 54.5% success rate from long range would be absolutely terrifying if he had taken more than 22 attempts on the year. In future seasons, McGruder is going to be a pest for opponents, but for now he is a quality role player that compliments Martin’s roster nicely.

Chris Merriewether is the tenth Wildcat who plays more than ten minutes per game, and he’s mostly a glue guy off the bench. He can’t shoot that well, and as a result has only thirteen attempts on the year. Martin puts Merriewether in the game simply for his hustle, defense, and hard work, not for his massive 1.2 points per game.

Keys to the game

The biggest flaw for the Wildcats is still their inability to control the basketball. They are turning it over on 22.1% of their possessions, which is even worse than last year’s team. And when you consider that last year Kansas State turned it over 25 times in a 22-point road loss to Nebraska, that’s really saying something. If Texas hopes to slow down the highly-efficient K-State offense, they are going to have to force a ton of Wildcat mistakes.

As previously mentioned, KSU is practically unstoppable on the offensive glass. In addition to forcing turnovers, the other way Texas can limit the damage is to limit K-State’s second-chance points. The Longhorns must keep the ‘Cats off the offensive boards, and when they do give up second and third looks, they cannot result in easy putback buckets.

Finally, Texas must not settle. When the Longhorns have struggled to score inside this season, their possessions often ended simply with outside and mid-range jumpers. Some nights, those shots were falling, and the Longhorns were able to cruise. On other nights, Texas couldn’t hit the broad side of Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, and they struggled to put away teams like Rice and A&M-Corpus Christi.

The Wildcats are a solid defensive team, and scoring inside will not be easy tonight. Texas must make a commitment to penetrate, flash men to the free throw line, use good ball movement, and most importantly cannot rely simply on contested jumpers where Dexter Pittman is the only player in rebounding position.

The big finish

The Big 12 is a very deep conference this season, and road wins are going to be hard to come by. None will be harder for the Longhorns this year than the one they hope to steal tonight. With the exception of the Kansas game in Austin three weeks from now, this game is the toughest one left on the docket, and there is a very good chance the Longhorns will suffer their first loss of the season in about eleven hours. No matter the outcome, however, this ought to be one hell of a basketball game.

Vegas thinks the game is roughly a toss up, giving the Wildcats a 1.5-point edge thanks to the home-court advantage. They have yet to post the odds of my making it out of Bramlage Coliseum alive, however. Just to be safe, a stop at a costume shop somewhere on I-35 might be in order. Do you think they sell fake beards in child sizes?