It has been a long, interesting month for the Longhorns. On January 17th, Texas was ranked No. 1 in the nation and held a pristine 17-0 mark. Just a day later, the Horns would start a slide in which they lost five out of seven games and plummeted from the upper crust of college basketball. But on Saturday, Texas once again looked like the dominant team that fans watched the first two months of the season. In a 40-point beating of Nebraska, the Longhorns were highly efficient on both ends of the court, and the much-heralded freshmen finally all put it together in the same game.

Texas’ recent performance has made fans hesitant to get excited once again. While the Longhorns certainly looked unstoppable on Saturday, their skittish performances the previous four weeks have planted a seed of doubt in the minds of most. Tonight, the Longhorns will find out whether or not they have turned a corner. In facing a very tough Missouri team in a very intimidating road enviornment, Texas will likely find what their true identity is. Are they a scuttling group that is squandering immeasurable talent? Or are they a team that is finally going to hit their stride, just in time for March?

By the numbers

As fans of college basketball are well aware, Mike Anderson and the Tigers play an up-tempo, pressure style of hoops they have dubbed “The Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball.” Anderson was once as assistant under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas, where the “40 Minutes of Hell” led to a national title, and Mike’s re-branding of the time-tested strategy actually led the Tigers to last year’s Elite Eight.

Missouri leads the Big 12 with 20.4 turnovers forced per game. The impact of that pressure defense is magnified by the fact that the Tigers only cough it up about thirteen times per game, so the differential gives the Tigers a bunch of extra possessions. In addition, 11.4 of the turnovers that Mizzou forces each game come in the form of steals, which is tops in the nation. Keeping the ball in play — rather than forcing TOs on passes out of bounds — gives the Tigers more points in transition.

That transition game is a big reason why the Tiger offense is ranked 42nd nationally in efficiency by stat guru Ken Pomeroy. Missouri’s gameplan can often feel like a tiny snowball building into an avalanche, as one turnover leads to an easy bucket, which lets them set up their full-court press, which forces another turnover and a layup, and they get to set up their defense…… You get the picture.

Tonight’s game is likely to be a full-on track meet. The Tigers average 72.1 possessions per game, which is the 20th-fastest tempo in the nation. (As you can see, the “Fastest 40” moniker is a bit of false advertising.) The Longhorns, meanwhile, average 74.5 possessions, which is 7th-fastest in the NCAAs. Unless Texas decides to make a conscious effort to slow the pace, this game will be played at break-neck speed.

When Missouri isn’t scoring their points off of transition, their half-court sets are very impressive. Good, strong cuts and quick ball movement earn the Tigers quite a few open looks, and strong dribble penetration leads to open three-point shots on the kick-outs. Missouri makes over 38% of their looks from long range, so Texas must make sure they don’t let the Tigers get too hot from behind the arc.

Meet the Tigers

After losing DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons to the NBA draft, Missouri needed to find a way to replace their 31 points and 13 rebounds per game. Fortunately for Coach Anderson, his lineup is filled with players who possess similar skills and body types. While no one has quite filled the frontcourt void left by these two stars, the Tigers are finding that their system and interchangeable personnel allows for quick reloading from year to year.

This year, Missouri’s senior leaders come in the form of J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor. Tiller was the Big 12’s top defensive player last season, and he’s picked up right where he left off. He has 32 steals so far this year, while only fouling out of one game. His offensive skillset is limited mostly to driving the lane for easy looks, so Tiller is fortunately one Tiger that Texas won’t have to watch on the perimeter.

Texas fans should remember Taylor quite well. Last year, he converted an old-fashioned three-point play in the final seconds to defeat the Longhorns, and hit a short jumper against Kansas to win in the Border War just a few days later. Nicknamed “Big Shot” for his heroics in those two games, Taylor is a pretty good outside shooter (39.7% behind the arc), and is averaging eight points per game.

The backcourt is where all the depth is for Missouri this year, but most of the Tiger guards are much taller than those of the Longhorns. The tallest of them all is 6’6″ Kim English, a sophomore guard who’s best known for sleeping in the gym. He’s leading the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per game, and much of it comes from long range. English has knocked down 53 triples on the year, and is shooting 37.6% from the perimeter.

Another long-range threat in the backcourt is sophomore Marcus Denmon. In his second season, he’s stepped into the spotlight, making more than 44% of his three-point attempts while scoring about eleven points per game. If there is one player that Texas absolutely cannot lose track of tonight, it’s Denmon.

While the Missouri lineup is littered with guys from 6’6″ to 6’8″ who are all quick, athletic, and have great wingpan, the most disruptive has to be Justin Safford. At 6’8″, his wingspan is much longer than it should be, and it makes him great at denial on entry passes and has helped him log 18 blocked shots this year. Safford didn’t see a lot of action down the stretch last season, but he’s averaging 21 minutes per game in his junior campaign and is consistently making solid contributions.

While Safford is long and defensively disruptive, the true shot blocker on the team is Keith Ramsey. He led the team in swats last year, and is second on the squad this year with 29 blocks. He’s not much of a scorer, but he is one of the only real frontcourt presences on a perimeter-oriented team. Ramsey will be relied on tonight to clean the glass and deny the Texas bigs down low.

The other frontcourt presence is sophomore Laurence Bowers. Hailing from Memphis, Bowers has been described by the coaches as the team’s most complete player, and in just his second season, he’s already starting to show why. He leads the team in blocked shots and rebounds, is third in scoring, and even has 27 steals. While Bowers is already making an impact in the Big 12, there’s no doubt that he is going to be an absolute star in the coming years.

Each of the seven players above is averaging more than 20 minutes a game, with none of them playing for more than 26.7 per contest. Anderson loves to constantly change his lineups, running essentially nine deep in an effort to wear down the opponents and keep his own players fresh enough to keep up the pressure. Texas is also a very deep team, but in recent weeks Rick Barnes has been working to pare down his core rotation. It will be interesting to see how Texas uses its personnel in response to Anderson’s substitution style.

The other two players who see significant minutes for the Tigers are freshman Michael Dixon and sophomore guard Miguel Paul. Dixon was Mr. Basketball for the state of Missouri as a high school senior last year, and he’s made a solid impression on the Big 12 so far as a freshman. He’s quick, smart with the basketball, and has a sound grasp of what Anderson’s defense requires from him. Paul is also a quick guard and a serviceable shooter, but doesn’t make that much of an impact on the stat sheet in his twelve minutes per game.

Keys to the game

While it may be painfully obvious already, the number one thing Texas must do tonight is control the basketball. Missouri’s pressure defense is even more effective in front of their rowdy crowd, so the Longhorns can’t afford to fuel the fire by wasting possessions and giving up easy fast break points. A lot of this will come down to the play of J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton, who have been two of the biggest turnover culprits in the past. As freshmen, they’ve only seen a handful of road arenas. Hopefully their experience at the electric Octagon of Doom was enough to prepare them for tonight.

Along the same lines, Texas must remain poised. At some point, Missouri will go on a run. With their style of play and the Texas penchant for scoring droughts, it’s practically a certainty. But the Longhorns must respond tonight when they get metaphorically punched in the mouth, or else they will find themselves with a deficit they will be unable to overcome.

In addition, Texas must efficiently use Dexter Pittman. In this type of game, he’s not going to be able to play for very long. But when he is on the court, he will undoubtedly be a tough match-up for the smaller Missouri lineup. If the Longhorns can get a nice chunk of points from Big Pitt, and maybe even pick up some fouls on the thin Tiger frontcourt, it could change the complexion of the game.

Finally, one brief reminder about the perimeter threat from the Tigers. Mizzou’s excellent three-point accuracy was mentioned throughout the player introductions, but Longhorn fans know all-too-well how Texas opponents tend to get ridiculously hot from long range. If Missouri shoots like the Sooners did in Norman or the Red Raiders did in Austin, there’s very little chance Texas leaves Columbia with a win.

The big picture

In terms of the conference standings, this game is huge. With just five games remaining after tonight’s contest, there is very little time to make up ground and practically no room for error. Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, and Texas have separated themselves from the pack and are all log-jammed from spots two through six in the standings.

If the Longhorns want a bye in the first round of the conference tournament, they have to win the remaining head-to-head meetings against the Aggies, Bears, and Tigers. Lose tonight, and it’s very likely the Horns will be playing the Big 12’s 11- or 12-seed on the second Wednesday in March.