After last season’s monumental meltdown, Texas fans were treated to a new-look Longhorn squad last week as they opened the year with a pair of easy victories in the 2KSports Classic. The Texas offense moved more freely, Jordan Hamilton seemed to be a completely different player, and the defense suffocated its first two opponents to the tune of a 34.3% effective field goal percentage.

Skepticism could still be found in all corners of the Burnt Orange Nation, and with good reason. After all, last year’s team looked unstoppable as it marched to a 17-0 start. But this week’s hot internet topic is the fabulous breakdown of the Texas coaching clinic by Scipio Tex of Barking Carnival, and it has some fans drinking the Kool-Aid once more.

In Scipio’s breakdown, we learned of Rick Barnes’ off-season dedication to overcoming his coaching shortcomings, namely by developing a coherent offensive attack. When pieced together with what we saw on the court last week, it all makes sense. What Barnes and Co. claim to have worked on has already translated to game-time action. But, fans are also well-aware of the glaring deficiencies this team has, and are also well aware of the fact that neither Navy nor Louisiana Tech could exploit those weaknesses.

Tonight, Texas will finally be pushed by a quality opponent in the Illinois Fighting Illini. Not only is Bruce Weber’s team much more talented than the aforementioned 2KSports whipping boys, but they are also the first challenge for a thin, undersized Texas frontcourt. The Longhorns certainly have the athletes to hang with the Illini — Vegas currently has the Horns as 3.5-point underdogs — but will they have the grit to pull off a tough upset?

By the numbers

While Illinois’ average tempo of 69.4 possessions per game is just 82nd in the country, there’s no doubt that they have the most success when pressuring opponents into mistakes. The Fighting Illini are forcing just over 18 turnovers per game, which equates to more than 21% of their opponents’ possessions.

Offensively, the Illini have been tough to stop. Their 59.7% effective field-goal percentage (a statistic giving added weight to 3-point buckets) ranks 25th nationally, while their eye-popping 63.2% success rate inside the arc puts them 13th in the country.

Statistically, the two offensive weaknesses for Illinois are found inside. They fail to attack the rim enough to earn many free throw attempts, getting to the line just 26.7% of the time they shoot the ball. When Illinois misses shots, they also are failing to grab a significant number of offensive boards. With just 29.8% of their offensive rebounding opportunities being capitalized upon, the Fighting Illini rank 214th nationally. Against a much-smaller Texas team, look for those numbers to improve tonight.

Meet the Illini

The Illinois team lives and dies with senior point guard Demetri McCamey. At 6’3″, 200 lbs., he’s a strong, stocky guard with prescient court vision. In a game against Purdue last season, McCamey dished out 16 assists, and this year is averaging eight per game through the first three contests. He’s quick enough to get to the rim, strong enough to finish there, and even has enough self-control to log a few assists each night after he’s already left his feet with the basketball. While Demetri is certainly one of the best point guards in the country this season, he’s also a quality scorer that leads his team with 14.7 points per contest.

Joining McCamey in the backcourt is sharpshooter D.J. Richardson. The 6’3″ guard was a teammate of Avery Bradley and Cory Joseph at Findlay Prep, and as both Longhorns are well-aware, he needs only inches of space to get off a quick three-pointer. After a season in which he was named the Big 10’s Freshman of the Year, Richardson has started off on the right foot, knocking down 46% of his long-range attempts in the first three games this year. When D.J. isn’t dropping long-range bombs, he can also be counted on to lock down the perimeter, where he is arguably the team’s best defender.

At forward, senior Mike Davis is making a big impact this season. He’s been a rebounding machine, snagging nearly a fifth of the team’s boards so far. Davis bulked up in the offseason in the hopes of being more physical in the tough Big 10 Conference, which could make him a difficult matchup for the Longhorns. Freshman Tristan Thompson and the platoon of Matt Hill and Alexis Wangmene will have to contend with this bruising style of play and keep Davis off the glass.

A constant double-double threat, Davis is averaging more than 12 points per game. But while he’s a great rebounder and a quality post defender, his favorite way to score is with the midrange jumper. Thompson and Gary Johnson are serviceable defenders away from the rim, but Hill and Wangmene often have difficulty when their defensive assignments pull them away from the paint. It will be interesting to see how the Texas frontcourt handles Davis on the defensive end.

The other Illini starting forward is Bill Cole, a scrappy player who earns praise from the coaches for his hustle. He’s not going to fill up the stat sheet — Cole is averaging just 3.7 points and 3.3 boards per game — but he’ll often be found diving to the floor for loose balls or setting screens to open up the Illinois scorers.

In the middle, Coach Weber relies on 7-foot, 1-inch Mike Tisdale. He can score at will, but was often criticized last season for incredibly weak defense. This year, he’s still not going to win any All-Conference honors for his work on D, but his length has an undeniable effect down low. Tisdale’s averaging 9.3 points and a team-leading 7.7 boards per game, while blocking more than two shots per game. Like Davis, Tisdale can knock it down in the midrange, and will again cause matchup issues for the Horns.

If having the 7’1″ Tisdale wasn’t enough for Weber and the Illini, freshman Meyers Leonard also checks in at 7-feet. He’s still a raw talent, but all high school scouts have been drooling over just how much raw talent he posseses. Leonard is only playing about 17 minutes a game off the bench, yet still averages four rebounds and more than five points per contest. For a Texas team that will likely struggle in the paint tonight, having a second giant on the bench is just one more edge for Illinois.

The Illini essentially run nine deep, with Brandon Paul being the busiest reserve. He’s playing more than 19 minutes a game, and is still the team’s third-leading scorer despite coming off the bench. He’s undoubtedly an explosive scorer that can change the fabric of any game, but his questionable decision-making is the thing holding him back. So far this season, the sophomore seems to be making better choices with the basketball. Texas has to hope, however, that they can pressure him into a few mistakes.

Also coming off the bench is freshman Jereme Richardson, who is making a quick impact. He’s the most-heralded recruit to arrive at Champaign-Urbana in years, and it’s likely just a matter of time until he usurps Cole for the starting role. He has incredible handles for a 6’7″ kid, leading to the inevitable “point-forward” label. His length enables him to grab a lot of rebounds when he’s not in the ideal position, and he should log his fair share of boards against Texas.

The final contributor for the Illini is forward Tyler Griffey, a sophomore in the mold of Cole. There’s only so many minutes on a team for the scrappy, “glue guy,” so for now Griffey’s impact is limited by Cole’s presence. In future seasons, he’ll likely slide right into that role. For now, though, he’s good for a few points a night.

Keys to the game

It’s a recurring theme throughout this game, and it will be a recurring theme throughout the season. This Texas Longhorn team is simply smaller in the frontcourt, and lack any real depth at those positions. Against Illinois, Texas must hold its own in the paint. They can’t let Illinois dominate the rebounding battle, and they cannot afford to give up a ton of easy points inside. If the Longhorns can somehow turn this into a battle of the backcourts, their odds for upset are much better.

Although the Illini are more experienced, they can often be careless with the basketball. They are averaging nearly 15 turnovers per game, coughing it up on roughly 20% of their possessions. If Texas can force Illinois mistakes, it will fuel the transition game and lead to easy buckets. The Longhorns scored 41 points off of turnovers in their first two games; if they can continue that trend, it will certainly make this game interesting.

Finally, Texas must stay out of foul trouble. Illinois is already deeper than Texas, and the Longhorns are thinnest in the frontcourt. Thompson, Gary Johnson, and Hamilton cannot be sitting on the bench for extended periods of time with foul trouble if the Longhorns are to have any hopes of winning this game.

A final DVR note

Since tonight’s game is the second of the semifinals, there is almost no chance that tipoff is actually happening at 8 P.M. central. We’ve put our best guess in the header bar at the top of this preview, but make sure to leave a lot of extra recording time as you set your DVR, VHS, or Betamax.