After 28 games, it’s safe to say that this year’s edition of the Texas Longhorns has vastly outperformed expectations. Coming off of a season in which the Longhorns sprinted out to a 17-0 start, only to lose seven of their next ten and get bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament, the burnt orange faithful had understandably tempered hopes for 2010-11.

But now, with the Longhorns posting a stellar 24-4 mark and sitting at 12-1 in the Big 12, there are much bigger goals in play. Texas is still solidly in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, with the possibility of playing close to home in the San Antonio regional. Texas can also win their first Big 12 title since 2008, and the team still has a chance to win the conference title outright. No school besides Kansas has claimed an outright Big 12 championship since 2004, when Oklahoma State won the league en route to a Final Four berth.

Unfortunately, the final three games for the Longhorns could provide multiple stumbling blocks on the way to those goals. Texas finishes the schedule by hosting Kansas State and traveling to Waco to face Baylor, but first must try to pull off the road victory this afternoon in Colorado. The Buffaloes have also been a team that has exceeded expectations this season, finding themselves in a three-way tie for sixth coming into this game.

First-year coach Tad Boyle has immediately built buzz around the program. While the Coors Event Center has often felt like a library in past seasons, this year it has been packed even against opponents not named Kansas. The atmosphere should be electric this afternoon, as Colorado looks for another marquee win to get them off the bubble and into the NCAA tournament.

By the numbers

Colorado has a highly efficient offense, but the numbers fail to tell the entire story. The Buffaloes have an adjusted offensive mark of 1.132 points per possession, but also played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the entire country. In conference play, Colorado’s offense has managed just 1.042 points each time down the court, still good for fifth in the league.

With excellent guards in the backcourt, the Buffaloes are able to push the pace at will. While their average tempo is right in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, Colorado is always a threat to score quickly in transition. Not only do they have three good ball-handling guards, but they can also let 6’7″ senior Marcus Relphorde bring the ball up the floor. That offensive flexibility makes it very easy for the Buffs to score on the break.

Defensively, Colorado does a great job switching on screens. With so many of their players ranging from 6’4″ to 6’7″, it’s rare that the automatic switching will lead to a defensive mismatch. Coach Boyle also loves to mix up his looks during a game, tossing out different zones in addition to the standard man-to-man. Statistically speaking, the Colorado defense is sound, but average. They have allowed just 0.995 points per possession on the year, but are giving up 1.062 points per trip against the tougher Big 12 competition.

One other statistic worth noting is the ability for the Colorado guards to get to the line. Alec Burks and Cory Higgins combine to average more than 12.4 free throws per game, with Burks posting a free-throw rate of nearly 53%. For a backcourt player, an FTR that high is exceptional.

Burks and Higgins also know how to make it count once they get to the line, as they make 86.8% of their free throws. As a team, Colorado is knocking down 79.1% of their attempts at the line, the third-best mark in Division I basketball.

Meet the Buffaloes

Colorado is led by a skilled pair in the backcourt, with sophomore Alec Burks chipping in more than 19 points per game, good enough for third in the Big 12. At 6’6″, he’s a terrible mismatch for most opposing guards, and is incredibly quick off the dribble. While the Longhorn defense has done a solid job shutting down slashing guards so far this season, they are going to have their hands full with Burks this afternoon.

Joining Burks in the backcourt is senior Cory Higgins, son of former NBA star Rod Higgins. He’s providing 16 points per game so far this season for the Buffaloes, but also makes a huge contribution with his quick hands on defense. Over the last two years, Higgins has rounded out his game by improving his three-point shot, and he’s made 36% of those attempts so far this year.

While Burks and Higgins have been a nearly unstoppable tandem this season, the one knock on both of their games is an unfortunate predilection for picking up offensive fouls. Look for the Longhorn defense to draw a foul or two on the Colorado guards simply by holding their ground against an over-eager Burks or Higgins.

Running the point is Australian product Nate Tomlinson, who is only playing about 20 minutes per game despite starting 22 times. He is simply a facilitator for the offense, and his prescient court vision sets up the Colorado shooters time and again. Tomlinson is logging an assist on more than 18% of the CU buckets when he’s on the court, a number that would likely be even higher if Burks and Higgins weren’t able to create so often on their own.

Senior Marcus Relphorde is a 6’7″ swingman for Coach Boyle and the Buffaloes, and he has exceptional handles that allow him to easily attack from the wings and corners. He is one of only two players to start every game for Colorado this season, and he’s contributing 11.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

Although Relphorde has added a three-point shot to his arsenal, he has limited the attempts this season after firing them up indiscriminately last year. Relphorde has only taken 68 attempts behind the arc this season, but has one of the team’s best accuracy marks at 38.2%.

The other Buffalo to start every game is junior big man Austin Dufault. Colorado loves to space the floor and create space for drivers and cutters, so unfortunately Dufault’s rebounding numbers are fairly pedestrian for a 6’9″ guy. He’s averaging only 4.4 boards per game to go with his 7.6 points, and he’s struggled somewhat with his typically-sound midrange jumper this season.

Although Dufault has been struggling, the arrival of freshman Andre Roberson has helped to shore things up in the Colorado frontcourt. Out of San Antonio, Roberson is a tenacious rebounder and shot blocker, and actually leads the team in both categories despite being the sixth man. In just 21 minutes per game, the 6’7″ freshman has 7.3 boards per game and 27 blocks. While Roberson is already making an impact this season, he’s destined to become a household name with Pac 10 fans next year.

Off the bench, Coach Boyle gives a lot of minutes to sharpshooter Levi Knutson. Despite starting only five games this year, Knutson is averaging more than 26 minutes and has ignited many a Colorado run with his hot hand behind the arc. In a road win over Kansas State, Knutson was 6-for-8 from behind the arc, and he knocked down five triples just a week later at Nebraska. On the season, he’s made 47% of his threes, tops in the Big 12 by a wide margin.

Also coming off the bench for Colorado is redshirt freshman Shannon Sharpe. After surgery cost him the 2009-10 season, Sharpe is playing about 15 minutes per game in the backcourt. A short, strong guard, Sharpe could be described as a sleeker Lance Jeter or Byron Eaton.

Sharpe is athletic and can attack off the dribble, but has yet to show a consistent enough jump shot to cause defenses to play tightly on him. If he could start knocking down the J, he would be able to take advantage of the tighter defense and then showcase that strength in finishing at the rim.

Keys to the game

For the Longhorns, the biggest thing in this afternoon’s game is winning the rebounding battle. When Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 start in conference play, they did so on the strength of outrebounding their opponents. Even in a road game against a bigger, more physical Kansas State team, the Buffs won the battle on the glass, and ultimately escaped with the win.

Texas is also bigger and more physical than Colorado, but the Horns have had inexplicable stretches of weak play on the glass. If they allow the Buffaloes to overcome their natural disadvantage, it will only serve to bolster Colorado’s upset chances this afternoon.

The Longhorns must also play sound team defense. Colorado knows how to spread out the floor and then force defenses to react by driving the lane. The Buffaloes move the ball very quickly and have a handful of shooters that can knock it down from outside. Texas will likely have to rotate and provide a lot of help defense this afternoon, so the Horns must communicate well on defense to avoid lapses that lead to easy buckets.

Finally, we’ll be looking for Texas to beat Colorado inside. The Buffaloes have a short bench and a definite lack of depth in the frontcourt. With the Longhorns already enjoying a size advantage inside, attacking the paint and drawing fouls on the Colorado bigs will only make things easier for Texas later in the game. Roberson has fouled out four times this season, while Dufault has done the same on two occasions. Although Tristan Thompson will struggle knocking down his free throws when he’s fouled inside, the trade-off of forcing Colorado to an even smaller lineup should pay off.