The last three weeks have been dicey for the Texas Longhorns. Considered the trendy pick for National Champion by many pundits back in early February, the Longhorns struggled through three losses in their last five regular season games. Even in a road win over Baylor in the season finale, the Texas offense was painful to watch.

But now, the real season begins. Sure, college basketball’s November-to-March regular season is much more exciting than practically every other sport. But once Championship Week tips off, the rules are the same for everyone. From the one-time title favorites to the NJITs of the world, all you have to do is win. Win and advance.

Fortunately for Texas, the Big 12 Tournament isn’t a must-win. They are safely in the NCAA’s field of 68, and are likely locked into a 2-seed. A loss today could make things interesting, and perhaps slide them down the S-curve into the 3-seed range. But even if the Longhorns reel off a three-game streak to claim the tournament title, there are other teams that would likely shut them out of a 1-seed. What is at stake for Texas is a chance to reclaim momentum and to rediscover the things that made their offense so scary in January and early February.

They will get their first chance to do that against the Oklahoma Sooners this evening. Texas knocked off the Sooners in both games this year, and have won 10 out of the last 12 games against their Red River rivals. An old college hoops cliché holds that it’s tough to beat the same team three times in one season. Teams learn tendencies and have more chances to adjust, making each rematch a little tougher for the victor to defend their crown.

Of course, if you’re a Texas fan that puts stock into historical numbers, you can shrug that off with smug satisfaction. In 2008, the last time Texas and Oklahoma met three times on the hardwood, the Longhorns swept the series and went on to the Elite Eight.

Meet the Sooners

For a full look at the Oklahoma roster, please read the preview of the first game between the two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns knocked off the Sooners 66-46 in Austin on January 15th, a game in which Texas led wire to wire. The Horns jumped out to an early lead by holding OU to just three field goals in their first 13 attempts, and allowed the Sooners just 19 points in the first half.

On the offensive end, the Longhorns were given numerous open looks from long range, and they were able to knock down seven of 12 from behind the arc on the afternoon. Jordan Hamilton was the biggest beneficiary of the poor perimeter D, and he knocked down five threes as part of his 17-point performance.

For the Sooners, Andrew Fitzgerald was the lone bright spot in an embarrassing loss. The big man had 18 points, scoring at will inside. Tiny guard Carl Blair also had a pair of easy layups when defended by Texas’ Jai Lucas, who couldn’t match Blair’s speed. Unfortunately for Blair, Lucas only played six minutes in the game.

All told, the 0.747 points per possession that Texas allowed was OU’s worst offensive performance of the year. The Sooners were just 1-of-15 from long range, leading to an effective field-goal percentage of just 40.2%, their lowest mark at that point of the season.

The second meeting

Texas’ excellent field goal defense would actually get even better when the two teams squared off again on February 9th. The Longhorns limited the Sooners to an eFG of only 36.6% on that night in Norman, as Oklahoma actually shot better beyond the arc (38.5%) than inside it (30.2%).

The Texas defense set the tone early, holding Oklahoma to just four buckets on their first 17 attempts. Like the first meeting, the Longhorns never trailed, and this time they actually built a massive 15-point advantage in the first ten minutes.

Offensively, the Longhorns had a well-balanced attack in which all five starters scored at least 11 points. Dogus Balbay opened the scoring by constantly attacking the rim, and the Sooners seemed disinterested in stopping the Turkish guard in transition. He finished with 12 points and four rebounds, and even knocked down a mid-range jumper.

The rest of the Longhorns simply toyed with the Sooners for most of the first half. Excellent ball movement and great interior passing led to numerous easy layups and dunks, with Gary Johnson logging four assists to go with his 14 points.

Since then…

The home loss to Texas was only the beginning of the slide for the Sooners. They dropped their next six, suffering through a seemingly interminable eight-game losing streak. Last year, Oklahoma lost their last eight regular season games before bowing out in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Unlike that team, these Sooners managed to stop the bleeding by defending their home court against Oklahoma State for a narrow three-point win in the season finale.

Last night, the Sooners built upon that OSU game and started an actual winning streak, dominating Baylor — sans Perry Jones III — for an 84-67 victory. Cade Davis led the way for Oklahoma, scoring 24 points in just 30 minutes thanks to 4-of-8 shooting behind the arc.

The Sooners scored an amazing 1.29 points per possession against the Bears, a stat made even more impressive when you consider that Oklahoma was so careless with the ball that they posted a 21.5% turnover rate.

Keys to the game

First and foremost, Texas needs to set the defensive tone early. The Longhorns raced out to early leads in the first two games with Oklahoma, largely on the back of their stingy defense. With the Sooners coming off an incredible shooting night against Baylor, Texas needs to send an early message that today is going to be very different.

The Longhorns also need to exploit the rebounding advantage this evening. Texas outrebounded the Sooners in both previous meetings, but they really wreaked havoc by limiting Oklahoma to just one offensive rebound in the first half of the game in Norman. If Texas can keep Andrew Fitzgerald and Cameron Clark from extending Oklahoma’s possessions, they should be able to finish off the sweep.

Finally, we’ll be looking to see if this is the game that gets Jordan Hamilton out of his slump. Although he is averaging 17 points per game over his last six games, those points have come on 31.4% shooting from the field.

Hamilton and the Longhorns need to rediscover the offensive mojo they had at the beginning of the conference season. At that point, the sophomore took most of his outside shots off of curls or coming around solid screens. For the last few weeks, most of his three-point attempts come as he’s dribbling against a defender and decides he has enough space to suddenly pop one.

In the two games against Oklahoma, Hamilton scored 37 points on 46% shooting, including an 8-of-17 mark from behind the arc. If there’s any opponent left in the tournament field that can help Jordan bust out of his slump, Oklahoma would be it.