The Texas Longhorns have made things interesting for their fans so far this season. In New Jersey, the team gave up an eight-point lead before finally losing in overtime to Oregon State. Two nights later, an 18-point second-half lead disappeared in a loss to N.C. State. Less than a week after that, Sam Houston State made things dicey in a tight, low-scoring Texas win at the Erwin Center. If history is any indication, this afternoon should be just as nerve-wracking for Longhorn fans.

Texas and UCLA have a limited history, playing just four times prior to this afternoon’s matchup. The Bruins won the first two, with their most recent victory coming all the way back in 1971. But thanks to a short-lived series of games between the Pac-10 and Big 12, the rivalry was renewed earlier this decade. Texas won both contests against UCLA, but managed to do so by a combined margin of just six points. Number-cruncher Ken Pomeroy thinks that today will be much of the same, as he predicts a narrow, two-point win for Texas.

By the numbers

During UCLA’s three-year streak of Final Four appearances, Coach Ben Howland had an absolutely suffocating defense, finishing in the top three nationally in adjusted efficiency each of those seasons. This year, the team’s performance on D has been decidedly un-Bruinlike.

While UCLA showed some improvements against Pepperdine on Monday night, they have been almost incapable of stopping dribble penetration. The team’s poor rotation and bigs who refused to challenge at the rim made things even worse. On the occasions that the scrambling defense has actually been able to head off the ballhandler, wide open shooters are waiting behind the arc.

All told, these defensive weaknesses add up to the sixth-worst effective field-goal percentage and worst three-point defense in all of D-I hoops. UCLA opponents have knocked down 56.9% of their long-range attempts this year while posting an eFG of 59.4%.

While they’ve always been a team that will lock you down on D and then win the rebounding battle, this year’s questionable defense makes it seem like some extra offense will need to be added to the equation. Unfortunately, the Bruins are struggling in that area, as well. UCLA’s own eFG of 43.8% is in the bottom 60 of Division I, while their offensive rebounding mark of just 30% is incredibly low for a team with such a deep frontcourt.

A big part of the problem has been UCLA’s tendency to settle for three-point shots instead of working the ball inside. Often, this happens when big man Josh Smith is in the game, as he usually camps out on one block and makes little effort to work across the lane. As a result, opposing defenses can pack in to prevent the entry pass, and UCLA’s guards settle for long jumpers and threes. On the year, the Bruins have made just 27.5% of their three-point shots.

The one thing keeping UCLA in a lot of games is their ability to steal the ball and possessions from their opponents. Their steal percentage is sixth in the nation, while their defensive turnover percentage ranks just inside the top seventy. In their most recent game, the Bruins forced 15 Pepperdine turnovers, including six steals by Lazeric Jones.

These below-average numbers have led UCLA to a disappointing 2-4 start this season. After home losses to both Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee State, the Bruins have been looking for a shot of confidence before conference play starts. They whiffed on a big opportunity in Maui, losing to both Kansas and Michigan. Outside of a home game against the Richmond Spiders in late December, this afternoon’s contest with Texas provides the only remaining chance for UCLA to get a signature win before tackling the Pac-12 schedule.

Meet the Bruins

Also known as Zeek, Lazeric Jones has been giving opposing guards trouble all season long, leading the Bruins with 16 steals. Unfortunately, the senior point guard is having less success on the other side of the ball. Although his 9.8 scoring average is third on the team, he’s posted nearly as many turnovers (16) as assists (21) so far this season and is struggling with his shot. Jones has made just 28% of his attempts from the field and less than 24% of his three-point tries. Fortunately, Zeek has been able to draw fouls when he puts the ball on the floor, taking a team-high 25 trips to the stripe, where he’s made 88% of them.

Joining Jones in the backcourt is sophomore Tyler Lamb, who is seeing an increased role following Malcolm Lee‘s early entry into the NBA Draft. He’s a crafty guard who can create his own looks with hesitation dribbles and drives to the paint, but defenses can sag off of him thanks to his abysmal mark behind the arc. After shooting just 20.5% from long range as a freshman, Lamb has made just 25% of his attempts so far this season.

Lamb is also having problems on defense. As mentioned previously, the Bruins have given up quite a bit of dribble penetration this season, and quite often it comes from the man Lamb is guarding. He consistently lets the ballhandler get him on their hip, and without the rotation from the rest of his team, that often leaves Lamb out to dry. The Longhorn guard that gets matched up with Lamb in the halfcourt needs to be aware of this and attack the sophomore early and often.

Coach Howland may have a very deep frontcourt, but he has also had some personnel issues early this season. That’s led him to frequently run a three-guard look, giving Jerime Anderson four starts in that third guard role. After serving a two-game suspension for stealing a laptop in the offseason, Anderson has emerged as the team’s go-to scorer. The senior guard leads the team with more than 11 points per game, and has even added six steals and a block on the defensive end. Supremely athletic and quick with the ball, Anderson is a guy the Longhorns must keep in check this afternoon.

In the frontcourt, twin brothers David and Travis Wear give the Bruins a pair of sweet-shooting forwards who can stretch out the defense and still provide quality work on the glass. They both cause matchup issues for opponents, as they have a good face-up game to go with those jump shots, and can easily put the ball on the floor to get near the lane for a short jumper or hook shot.

On a team that has lacked fire and energy this season, the Wear twins have been one of the few bright spots. Against Pepperdine, Travis played with stitches in his foot after suffering a snorkeling accident in Maui. Despite that, he almost logged a double-double with eight points and 10 rebounds, and even came back into the game after getting his two front teeth knocked out by Pepperdine’s 7-foot center.

In the middle, big man Josh Smith is the team’s mercurial star. When he’s in the game, there is little that defenses can do to keep him off of the blocks or away from the offensive glass. But Smith has a motivation issue, and can often be seen giving partial effort or just walking down the floor when the team is trying to defend a fast break. Although the big man is averaging 5.5 rebounds and more than eight points per game, the UCLA offense has actually looked much more fluid and productive when he hasn’t been on the floor.

The other talented big man who is giving Coach Howland headaches is Reeves Nelson, the heavily-tattooed junior whose early-season issues would make Dennis Rodman raise his eyebrows. After getting into a verbal altercation with the head coach during a film session, Nelson was suspended for the team’s loss to Middle Tennessee State. Then, he missed the team’s flight to Maui and was benched for the first half of their opening game against Chaminade.

Since then, Nelson has made an immediate impact. He drained a trio of three-pointers in the Maui Invitational semifinal against Kansas, nearly matching the four he made all of last season. He crashed the glass against the Jayhawks and the Wolverines, grabbing nine rebounds in his 51 minutes of action. Most importantly, he attacked the rim inside and made excellent passes to open teammates, something the Bruins will need if their inside-out approach is going to work.

The Bruins do have a pair of frontcourt reserves in Brendan Lane and Anthony Stover, but the pair has combined to average less than 11 minutes per game, even with all of the discord during the first few weeks. Stover isn’t much of an offensive threat, but is a skilled shot blocker and tenacious rebounder who provides a spark off the bench. Lane is a versatile guy who can play power forward or center and averaged 15 minutes per game last season, but the arrival of the Wear twins has eaten into his playing time.

Freshman Norman Powell is the only other option off the bench for Coach Howland, and he’s managed to find PT in each of the team’s first six games. Although he isn’t a great shooter, he is still incredibly quick with the ball and can get inside for easier looks. Powell has made just 5-of-18 from long range so far this year, so Texas needs to give him space when he’s in the game and make him beat them from outside.

The Bruins also had a promising start this season from JUCO transfer De’End Parker, but he has not played since November 15th due to an injury to his right knee.

Keys to the game

1) Be competitive on the glass – Although the Bruins are a bigger team with a deep frontcourt, they have not been as dominant in the rebounding department as would be expected. For a Texas team that has struggled on the glass all season long, that is a very welcome development. The Longhorns must grab a fair share of their missed shots, but also must keep UCLA from extending their own possessions. This game is going to be an excellent litmus test for Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman before they face the likes of KU’s Thomas Robinson and Baylor’s All-World frontcourt.

2) Force UCLA to win with the jumper – The Bruins have struggled to knock down shots this season, especially from beyond the arc. Texas would be wise to play a packed-in zone against this poor-shooting team, making it more difficult for Smith to get established inside. Even with this approach, the Longhorns will need to keep a close tab on the Wear twins, as that pair can certainly knock down their jumpers.

3) Push the tempo – The Bruins have had a very tough time defending the transition game, often giving up easy fast-break points or scrambling and allowing the secondary break to find success. Texas has looked very good playing up-tempo earlier this year, so it stands to reason that the Longhorns can pile up some easy points against the Bruins by looking for the quick outlet.

4) Take care of the ball – Texas has been very careful with the basketball so far this season, coughing it up on just 17.6% of their possessions. But UCLA has done an excellent job forcing mistakes by their opposition, not just against the mid-majors, but also against the big boys. The Bruins caused 18 Jayhawk turnovers during their matchup in Maui, and could easily disrupt the Texas offense in the same fashion this afternoon.