The Texas Longhorns have very little margin for error as they come down the stretch of the 2011-12 season. Almost all major bracket projections have them hovering right on the dreaded bubble, so with just seven regular season games left, there’s little time to make rectify a mistake. This afternoon, the Longhorns have a rare chance to make up for an earlier missed opportunity, as they host the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that narrowly beat them earlier this season.

Currently just 2-8 against the RPI Top 100, Texas desperately needs to add some quality wins to the tournament résumé, something they can do with a victory over K-State this afternoon. The Wildcats were ranked 50th in Monday’s edition of the NCAA’s official RPI rankings, so while a win by Texas would likely knock KSU out of the vaunted Top 50, it would still provide an immediate boost to Texas’ tourney profile. Unfortunately, the Horns haven’t had much luck taking care of the Wildcats at home, as K-State owns a three-game winning streak over the Horns in Austin.

Meet the Wildcats

For a full look at the K-State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas State abused Texas inside early, piling up the fouls on Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes. Big man Clint Chapman managed to avoid the whistles and stay on the court, thanks in large part to the team’s switch to a zone defense. Unfortunately, protecting the Texas frontcourt came at a cost, and Kansas State drilled 7-of-12 from long range in the first half. The Wildcats built a lead as large as 15 late in the first, but the Longhorns managed to erase the entire deficit in less than six minutes. At the break, K-State held just a one-point lead.

The second half was a closely contested affair until the final minutes, when the Wildcats once again stretched their advantage out to seven points with only 74 seconds left. The Longhorns took advantage of terrible free-throw shooting by K-State and executed nearly flawlessly on the offensive end. As a result, Texas had the ball and trailed by just two with 20 seconds left on the clock. When Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown tried a dribble handoff near midcourt, Martavious Irving stripped the ball, leading to a game-clinching dunk by Rodney McGruder.

Since then…

Freshman Angel Rodriguez has taken Manhattan by storm, starting all six games since facing the Longhorns. His secure hold on the point guard duties means that Will Spradling can now slide over to a shooting guard role, which fits his skill set much better. Rodriguez is now also the team’s most consistent threat to drive, and the offense often looks stagnant when he’s on the bench. Fortunately for the Horns, the freshman guard has a tendency to pick up dumb fouls, so that time on the bench comes more frequently than Coach Frank Martin would like. Texas fans may also remember that Rodriguez had issues keeping Kabongo in check during the first meeting, so the Texas point guard could get things going with penetration this afternoon.

Despite the emergence of Rodriguez, K-State has had a rather bumpy road since knocking off the Horns on January 18th, going 4-2 since that meeting. K-State took full advantage of a pair of games against league doormat Texas Tech, knocking off the Red Raiders by an average of 20.5 points in their two games. Between those two dominant performances were a pair of tough losses, however. The Wildcats were edged out at home by Oklahoma in an ugly game two weeks ago, giving the Sooners a season sweep of the Cats. Just three days later, KSU blew a second-half lead of 14 points, falling victim to a Royce White game-winner with 1.8 seconds to go.

Now, this afternoon’s game is as much a must-win for K-State as it is for Texas. After traveling to Austin, the Wildcats host league co-leader Kansas and then face stiff road tests against Baylor and Missouri. While Ken Pomeroy gives the Cats just a 22% cumulative chance to go winless, they are still the underdogs in each game. Kansas State has a strong tournament profile, but a four-game losing streak in February would certainly hurt seeding and could even put them back in the bubble discussion if other teams surge down the stretch. There is no doubt that they will come out motivated for a win this afternoon.

Keys to the game

1) Stay aggressive – The Longhorns did a great job spreading the floor, moving the ball well, and attacking the paint on Monday night against Texas A&M. It was a welcome change for an offense that had oftentimes degenerated into a team of four players waiting for J’Covan Brown to make something happen. As a result, the Longhorns posted 1.169 points per possession against the Aggies, their best offensive efficiency mark since beating up on an overmatched Nicholls State squad in December.

In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Horns were also able to get a piece of the paint thanks to aggressive play by Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan. McClellan scored 19 points against Kansas State, his best output in a conference game. He’s also been hot as of late, scoring 32 points in wins over Tech and A&M, so there is hope he can replicate that performance this afternoon.

K-State used a great team effort to shut down Brown in the first game, throwing different defenders at the guard to keep their own players out of foul trouble. They frustrated J’Covan all night and gave him little space, limiting him to just an 8-of-28 line. If the Wildcats are just as effective against Brown tonight, other Longhorns like Kabongo and McClellan will have to be aggressive to keep the offense from stalling out.

2) Force mistakes – The first time these two teams met, the Longhorns forced the Wildcats into miscues on just 16.7% of their possessions. As a result, K-State had their most efficient offensive performance in conference play. Since then, the Cats have been rather careless with the ball, posting turnover marks of at least 22% in five out of six games. With Rodriguez now at the point, K-State has shown more life on the offensive end, but they have also made some crippling mistakes. If the Horns can actually force some turnovers this time around, they might be able to enact some revenge.

3) Limit second chance points – There’s no way to stop Kansas State from grabbing offensive rebounds, but the Longhorns can at least hope to limit the damage caused by those boards. The Wildcats grabbed more than 51% of their offensive rebounding chances against the Longhorns in Manhattan and turned those second chances into 16 points. Texas needs to not only do a much better job on the defensive glass in this one, but also keep the Wildcats from scoring on easy putbacks when they do reclaim the misses.