The Texas Longhorns took a big step backwards on Saturday, losing to Oklahoma State and a superhuman Keiton Page in Stillwater. The loss snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and set the Horns back a few pegs on the S-curve, with just two weeks left in the regular season. A win over the Cowboys would have kept Texas safely above the bubble, but now the Horns find themselves back in the danger zone.

With just three wins against the RPI Top 50, the Longhorn résumé could use some extra lines. Those three victories came against Temple (currently 16th in the RPI), Iowa State (40th), and Kansas State (50th), so a win tonight over Baylor (10th) would certainly bolster Texas’ post-season hopes. While the Longhorns could still feasibly make the NCAAs without a win tonight, it would require a lot of help from other teams, or a solid run in the conference tournament.

Texas has had more than its fair share of opportunities to knock off top teams, having lost three games against teams in the RPI’s Top 10 by a combined nine points. Tonight’s battle with Baylor represents the best chance the Longhorns have left for a defining victory. The only question that remains is whether or not this young team can finally rise to the challenge.

Meet the Bears

For a full look at the Baylor roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

The Longhorns found success early against the Baylor defense with quick ball movement and aggressive play. Texas actually built a small, early lead over the Bears, holding a four-point edge eight minutes into the game. But with both Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo cooling their heels on the bench after picking up two fouls each, Baylor was able to pull ahead and take a nine-point lead to the locker room.

Although the Bears stretched their lead as large as 12 points, the Longhorns chipped away at that advantage throughout the second half. J’Covan Brown exploded for 20 of his 32 points after the break, bring the Longhorns all the way back to tie it with just 2:53 to go. Pierre Jackson immediately responded with a clutch three to give Baylor a new lead, one that the team would never relinquish. Although Brown had a three-point attempt to tie the game with 10 seconds left, it clanked off the iron and the Bears salted it away with a pair of free throws by A.J. Walton.

Perry Jones III led the way for Baylor, posting a double-double with an impressive 22-point, 14-rebound line. Quincy Miller also put up great numbers, showing off a smooth jump shot as he piled up 18 points.

Texas did a great job rattling the Baylor offense in the first meeting, turning 18 miscues into 20 points. Unfortunately, the Longhorns also had one of their worst outings of the season at the free-throw line, making just 16 of their 26 attempts. In a game where the Bears only won by five points and made 80% of their own shots at the charity stripe, that failure to convert the freebies was crippling.

Since then…

Baylor has posted just a 3-3 record since facing the Longhorns, with two of those wins coming narrowly against teams at the bottom of the standings. The Bears needed some last minute heroics from Jackson — and an inexplicably bad shot from Elston Turner — to knock off A&M at Reed Arena, 63-60. A few days later, the Bears again held on in the final minute to earn a 64-60 road win at Oklahoma State.

After surviving those close calls, the Bears were hoping to earn some revenge the following week against the only two teams to defeat them — Kansas and Missouri. Instead, Baylor was embarrassed on national television by Kansas and Jeff Withey, and then lost by 15 to the Tigers in Columbia.

Two games out of first place and having been swept by both of the teams ahead of them, the Bears were essentially eliminated from the Big 12 race. Saturday’s one-point loss at home to Kansas State served only to shovel more dirt on those title hopes, while also dropping Baylor into a tie for third with Iowa State.

Over the last two weeks, the PJ3 critics have once again been out in force. The sophomore star has long been lambasted for disappearing in big games and lacking the drive to carry his team. With the Bears losing three out of their last four, his weak performances have given the naysayers plenty of ammo. In the losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, PJ3 averaged just 4.3 points per game on 19.2% shooting from the field.

The Bears have also seen a severe drop-off in their three point success. In their last five games, Baylor has made just 28.2% of their long-range attempts, a far cry from the 41.4% mark they carried into the first game with Texas. While there’s certainly no way that the Longhorns can lay off the Baylor three-point shooters and focus solely on the interior threats, another rough night for Baylor behind the arc will definitely help Texas’ chances.

Keys to the game

1) Win the turnover battle – The Longhorns did an excellent job forcing mistakes when they took on the Bears in Waco. Baylor ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover, leading to 20 points for the Longhorns. In front of a Texas crowd that often only cheers when given a reason to, fast break buckets will be key to keeping the Longhorn fans on their feet.

In Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coughed it up on more than 21% of their possessions, while forcing the Cowboys into mistakes on just 11% of theirs. Even if Texas isn’t able to force as many mistakes by Baylor as they did the first time around, the Horns simply cannot afford to waste their own possessions. Texas absolutely must take better care of the basketball tonight.

2) Make the second chances count – One of Baylor’s most glaring weaknesses is their inability to close out possessions with defensive boards. Even though their team is long and athletic, the Bears are in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to allowing offensive rebounds. The Longhorns happen to be the 13th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation, so they will certainly get some second and third chances tonight. Texas must take advantage of those extended possessions and turn them into more points.

3) Move the ball quickly – The Baylor zone has sprung a few leaks this season, as Kansas showed the nation in their win on February 8th. The Bears are especially susceptible in the short corner, often failing to rotate and giving up easy points on the baseline. Texas exploited this a few times in Waco, and needs to do the same again tonight. Quick ball movement and aggressive penetration will force Baylor to react on defense, something that has been a major problem for the team all season long.

4) Avoid first-half foul trouble – Kabongo and Chapman have been particularly bad offenders in this category, spending much of the first half on the bench in multiple conference games. While some of Chapman’s first-half fouls fall on other Longhorns missing defensive assignments, Kabongo often picks up cheap fouls on plays he has no business trying to make. The Longhorns will need both players to remain in the game this evening, and will also need Alexis Wangmene to avoid foul trouble and help compete against Baylor’s size.

5) Get McClellan going – If Kabongo does happen to find himself in foul trouble, it will be much easier for Baylor to focus their defense on Brown. Sheldon McClellan needs to be assertive and make himself a scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. When McClellan takes charge, the Longhorn offense is much less stagnant, and much more difficult to defend.