During last year’s rough 16-18 campaign, the Texas Longhorns could at least count on one thing — if they needed a win, Texas Tech or TCU was great to see next on the schedule. It’s been that way with the Red Raiders for quite some time, as the Longhorns have swept the season series in each of the last five years, and have never lost at home to Tech in Rick Barnes’ 15 years on the Forty Acres.

It hasn’t taken too long for Tubby Smith to get things turned around in Lubbock, however. Tech has had some good pieces on the roster over the last few years, but has never been able to put it together for more than an upset here or there. This season, Smith’s Red Raiders have held their own against some tough competition and look primed to surprise some unsuspecting foes in Big 12 play.

For a Texas team that is sitting at 0-2 in league play, becoming Tech’s first conference victim would be disastrous. The Longhorns were one of Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four Byes” in the January 2nd version of his bracket, meaning that Texas was just ahead of the group slotted to play in the First Four in Dayton. After a frustrating loss to Oklahoma and a road defeat to Oklahoma State, UT has slid into the “First Four Out” category. To even stay in the conversation, the Horns must take care of business at home against the teams at the bottom of the Big 12 table.

By the numbers

Through 15 games, the Red Raider offense is scoring an adjusted 1.099 points per game, ranking them 65th in the country. That number is a marked improvement over the last two seasons for Tech, as they were ranked 205th last season and 307th two years ago. What’s most impressive about the quick and massive turnaround is that there are five Red Raiders on this year’s squad who were here for both of those awful seasons, and two contributing sophomores who part of last year’s offensively-challenged team.

Granted, the season is only halfway through, but to date, the Red Raiders have increased their adjusted offense efficiency numbers by more than 11%. So how did Tech’s core rotation suddenly learn how to score? First and foremost, the team is making a concerted effort to get the ball into the lane for easier looks. Tech is averaging 38.5 points per game in the paint, which equates to nearly 52% of their scoring.

In addition, they crash the glass with a purpose. This season, the Red Raiders are ranked 25th in the nation when it comes to reclaiming their own misses, snagging 38% of their offensive rebounding opportunities. Part of that success is already baked into those points-in-the-paint numbers, as tip-ins and putbacks obviously count as both an offensive board and points in the paint. However, the commitment to getting the ball inside and attacking the glass has given the Red Raiders an identity as a tougher team and it’s resulted in a much better offense.

Defensively, Tech’s stats are nothing to write home about. Although they’ve improved their adjusted defensive efficiency numbers by 0.4 points per possession over last year, their stats still only hover around the national median. You can hear and see Tech’s improvement on the court, as they now communicate clearly and play better team defense, but they still need more work to achieve consistent results.

Meet the Red Raiders

Tech’s leading scorer is senior Jaye Crockett (No. 30), who is enjoying more freedom as a wing player this year. In the past, he was mostly used as an undersized forward, and that experience makes him even more dangerous in his new role. Crockett is great attacking the basket from the perimeter, has a great midrange game, and can still post up to get his points inside. Although he’s 31% from beyond the arc this season, he’s hit 3-of-6 in his two Big 12 games, which keeps defenses honest when he’s hanging out around the arc.

Crockett’s fellow senior in the starting five is seven-footer Dejan Kravic (No. 11). Although the big man has a nice midrange jumper and a pretty good hook shot, he’s not a huge part of the offensive gameplan. Unsurprisingly, he’s a solid offensive rebounder, having grabbed more than 10% of his offensive rebounding chances so far this year.

Joining Crockett and Kravic in the frontcourt is junior Jordan Tolbert (No. 32), who has posted three double-doubles through 15 games. His offensive and defensive rebounding rates of 11.8% and 20.1% are both tops on the team. Like Crockett, Tolbert does have the ability to drive from the perimeter, but he is not nearly as smooth in that regard and prefers to hang out around the rim. He has a great set of post moves, especially a very quick spin move that leaves defenders flat-footed. In addition, Tolbert is a quality shot blocker and runs the floor well on the rare occasions when Tech gets out in transition.

Shooting guard Toddrick Gotcher (No. 20) has a nice jumper, although he tends to be a very streaky shooter and doesn’t use many possessions. He’s hit nearly 42% of his three-point attempts on the season, but is barely averaging two attempts per game. Instead, like most of the Red Raiders, Gotcher prefers to put the ball on the floor and attack with the bounce. Most importantly, the sophomore is a strong perimeter defender, a skill that is huge on a team which has struggled to slow down opposing guards this year.

Rounding out the starting five is new point guard Robert Turner (No. 14). A juco transfer from New Mexico JC, Turner was the first signee of the Tubby Smith era, and his ability to slash to the rim has opened things up for his teammates. Turner averages more than nine points per game, but his 20.4% assist rate is key to Tech’s success inside. He repeatedly draws defensive attention with his quick drives, and is able to hang in the air long enough to get opponents off the ground before he whips passes around them to his waiting teammates on the blocks. In two Big 12 games, Turner has posted a 5.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Sharpshooter Dusty Hannahs (No. 2) is currently coming off the bench, but his recent play has certainly earned him some extra playing time. Although Hannahs’ 35.7% three-point mark is second-best on the team, he is the only frequent long-range scorer on a Tech team that gets less than 20% of its points from beyond the arc. In Big 12 play, Hannahs has improved his game by showing a scrappiness inside that has led to boards and second-chance points. As a result, he’s averaged 15 points in the team’s two conference games.

Keys to the game

1) Pack in the defense – With Tech struggling to score from long range, there’s no reason why the Longhorns shouldn’t clog the lane against the Red Raiders tonight. Texas Tech’s game plan is always to feed the bigs on the block and generate opportunities with their slashing guards and wings. As long as the Longhorns have someone closely shadowing Hannahs during his time on the court, there’s little danger in sagging off with their other four defenders and turning Tech into a jump-shooting team.

2) Clean up the glass – Of course, if the Horns are forcing the Red Raiders into taking contested jumpers, they will need to actually follow up those defensive stops with timely boards. Tech has been fantastic all season on the offensive glass, but the Longhorns have been equally good on the defensive boards.

Texas found out firsthand how important it is to box out on the defensive boards in last Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma. On that night, the Horns allowed the Sooners to reclaim 46% of their missed shots and score 19 second-chance points. If Texas has a similarly poor performance against a good offensive rebounding Red Raider unit tonight, the Longhorns will be flirting with disaster.

3) Aggressive guard play – One weakness for Tech has been perimeter defense by the guards, as Big 12 opponents have repeatedly attacked the rim with little resistance from the Red Raiders. The Longhorns need to exploit this not only for the easy points, but also to take advantage of Tech’s lack of depth in the backcourt.

Beyond Turner, Hannahs, and Gotcher, Texas Tech’s best option is inexperienced freshman Randy Onwuasor (No. 1), who has a hideous turnover rate of more than 30%. Luke Adams (No. 13) has also been used sparingly at the point when Turner is in foul trouble, but he is averaging just four minutes per game in 10 appearances. If the Texas guards make it a point to slash to the rim tonight, they’ll be rewarded with some easy hoops and trips to the line, and will also force Tubby to get creative with his lineups.