Tonight the Longhorns head into the lion’s den known as Gallagher-Iba Arena, looking for that magical 20th win of the season, and perhaps a convincing hold on 4th place in the Big 12 Conference. Should the Longhorns win today and the Cornhuskers steal a road victory from K-State, Texas would claim a two-game advantage over the Wildcats and Cowboys with only two games left on the schedule. In baseball terms, that would leave the magic number at one, meaning only a Texas win or a loss by both trailing teams would seal the deal.

But the first half of that equation could be the most difficult part. The Longhorns must first win in Gallagher-Iba Arena, one of the toughest places to play in the country. It has been a particularly tough venue for Rick Barnes and Texas, as the Horns have won only two times in their last six trips to Stillwater. And although this season Texas has already blown out the Pokes, they are starting to hit their stride and are looking to play their way into the NCAAs.

The previous meeting

Texas came into the first match-up with Oklahoma State absolutely reeling. They had lost their three previous games by a grand total of 11 points, and the fans and media were bailing from the bandwagon faster than Takeru Kobayashi demolishing a hot dog. Their backs were against the wall, and unless the Longhorns started claiming some more victories, the NCAA tournament would be nothing but a pipe dream.

Fortunately, Texas came out of the gates firing on all cylinders and cruised to a comfortable 99-74 win. It seemed that the Longhorns could do absolutely nothing wrong, as they shot almost 56% from the field, drained 46% of their threes, and easily outrebounded the smaller Cowboys. The only weakness in the Texas game was a porous defense that allowed the Pokes to hit over 52% of their shots. Even that seemed reasonable, as the Oklahoma State offense was ranked in the top ten nationally in nearly every metric.

The barrage of points came from all over the Texas lineup, as five players logged double digits in scoring, including Connor Atchley, who briefly broke out of his slump to hit two threes and score fourteen. A.J. Abrams was a scorching 4-of-5 from long range, while Damion James abused the undersized Pokes for 19 points.

Since then…

The lopsided win apparently served as a wake-up call, as OSU has won its four games since the Austin lambasting. The argument could be made that this hot streak is simply a result of an easier stretch of the schedule for the Cowboys, and it would be a compelling case. The Pokes earned their four victories against the bottom four teams in the league, defeating Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Colorado.

The statistic would back up that theory, as well. OSU has been a high-powered offensive machine all season long, yet still dropped a ton of conference games. So when a high-scoring team can’t seal the deal, the blame must fall on an incredibly weak defense. By extension, if the Pokes had actually turned a corner and were ready to make a stretch run, one would expect to see their defensive numbers improve in those four wins, especially against the dregs of the conference. That didn’t happen. The Cowboys still allowed their weaker opponents to post eFG numbers of over fifty percent.

The biggest change for Oklahoma State has been the demotion of Obi Muonelo from starter to sixth man, switching places with diminutive guard Keiton Page. This is a puzzling move for Coach Ford, because Muonelo has led the team in rebounding all season long, and putting Page in the lineup costs the already-short Cowboys another six inches in height. Against Texas, giving Page more minutes could definitely pay off, however. He’s an absolute dead-eye from behind the arc (41.7%) and the Longhorns are famous for allowing long-range gunners to get hot.

For a review of all of the Oklahoma State players and the team’s tendencies, check out the game preview from the first time these teams met.

Keys to the game

Own the glass – Against the guard-oriented lineup of Oklahoma State, Texas will have to exploit its height advantage. While that certainly includes piling up the points down low, the main way that the Longhorns must take advantage is by dominating the rebounding battle. OSU boasts one of the top offenses in the country, so when Texas gets a defensive stop, they must end the possession with solid defensive rebounding. On the offensive end, Texas will also find success if they can get a lot of junk points off of putbacks.

Toe the line – Oklahoma State is 11th in the country at shooting the longball, and we all know that Texas has major issues locking down the perimeter. There’s no easier way to let the game get out of hand and rile up the rabid Gallagher-Iba crowd than to give up a ton of easy threes to the likes of Page, James Anderson, Terrel Harris, and Muonelo.

Execute in crunch time – The main reason that Texas had its three-game slide in January and early February was an inability to make the right plays down the stretch. On the road this evening, in one of the most hostile gyms in the nation, Texas will find it even more difficult to do so. If the Pokes and Longhorns are in a tight one as the seconds tick away, the Longhorns cannot waste possessions or make dumb mistakes on the defensive end. Of course, putting the game away early could make this a moot point and save me from a few ulcers. But what’s the likelihood of that?