Tip: 8 PM, ESPN

Remember the year that A&M went 0-for-conference? Or how about a little more recently, when Coach Billy Gillispie had to grind out defensive wins in low-scoring games that ended up in the 40s or 50s? Forget about all of that. It’s ancient history at this point. The A&M team that is going to take the court tonight against the Texas Longhorns is a legit Final Four contender.

Texas A&M (19-3 overall, 7-1 Big 12) is coming into the game riding the biggest win in their school’s history, a last-minute victory on the road in Lawrence, Kansas. That triumph vaulted them into sole possession of first place and may have finally awoken the national media to the elite basketball team that Gillispie has quietly been building in College Station.

Looking at Ken Pomeroy’s statistical rankings, Texas A&M is one of only two teams that can claim a top-ten ranking in both defensive and offensive efficiency. The other? Perennial powerhouse North Carolina. If you crunch the numbers, the Aggies are enjoying a +36.5 efficiency margin, meaning they outscore their opponents by that number per 100 possessions.

Texas (16-6, 6-2) is going to have fits with big man Joseph Jones. Last year in Austin, Jones scored 31 points before fouling out late in the game. That ridiculous performance was against a Longhorn team that sported LaMarcus Aldridge and Brad Buckman inside. This smaller Texas squad is definitely going to have its hands full. Look for Barnes to employ the 2-3 zone that shut down LSU big man Glen Davis in an effort to deny Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskas the ball inside.

Of course, that 2-3 zone leaves the Horns susceptible to the three-point shot, as Kansas State so adeptly demonstrated on Saturday afternoon. For A&M, that will mean that Josh Carter and Acie Law XIVLCIII will have to shoot us out of it. (Or not, if we prefer to allow them 14 three-pointers.) Carter is hitting at 50% so far this year from behind the arc, so if he is on his game it could be a long night. Barnes may toy with putting Durant out on the perimeter in the zone, not only to protect against foul trouble, but also to actually get the pressure on shooters that was lacking Saturday.

Law is also one of the more underrated point guards in the country, and he can certainly penetrate and dish to the open man on the perimeter, or to the open big underneath if the help defense collapses. He is a huge part of A&M’s success thus far, and the LSU loss highlighted that fact. Law was 1-for-11 that night, and the Tigers absolutely blew them out, finishing with a 12-point win.

One of the most striking things about this A&M team is how much their offense has improved since just last season. Dominique Kirk is honestly only a fifth option for the Ags, yet he still manages nearly seven points a game while dishing out three assists. Everybody on this team contributes, and that can be bad news for a Texas team that likes to mysteriously lose a man on defense.

For the Horns, KD is going to be key, as always. If he isn’t scoring at least 25 points, Texas doesn’t stand a chance. Fortunately, his skill set allows him to score even when double and triple-teamed. (See: Oklahoma State, January 2007.) He can shoot the three over their tough defense, and should open up some of our other players just by drawing the extra attention from their defense.

Even with Durant, the Horns will need all of the other players to work within their roles. A.J. Abrams has to limit himself to a catch-and-shoot mentality, and needs to flash out to the perimeter quicker on defense. Justin Mason must continue to provide good D while occassionally adding a nice layup or three-pointer. Connor Atchley needs a fourth-straight big game on the glass against the bigger, tougher Aggie team. The same goes for Damion James, although a modicum of offense from the big guy would be a nice bonus. And D.J. Augustin is going to have to break down the Aggie defense, limit his turnovers against their pressure, and not force the ball inside when the passing lanes aren’t there.

All told, it’s a very tall order. I think that Texas can hang with A&M, but won’t be able to overcome a well-coached team playing in front of a rabid fanbase. Aggies take this one and continue their march through the Big 12, but Texas keeps it within ten.