With only 28 days to Selection Sunday, teams across the nation are jostling for position not only in their conference races, but also around the proverbial bubble. In the latest projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Big 12 conference is sitting pretty with six bids in the field of sixty-five. As we head into the final three weeks of conference play, here is a look at what’s to come. Over at PhogBlog, they have the “REAL Standings,” one of my favorite features in the college basketball blogosphere. The idea behind the REAL standings is to group the league into “Contenders,” “Pretenders,” and “Have-Nots.” The beauty of the REAL standings is the fact that it takes into account the difficulty of winning on the road and is always accounting for the games left on the slate. Each Contender is given a win for all home games on its schedule and any road games against the Have-Nots. Then they are given “half-wins” for each of their road games against the Pretenders. What results is a look at how the league should finish if everyone wins the games they are supposed to. It’s a really brilliant idea and something I advise all Big 12 hoops fans to check out when it’s updated twice each week. The REAL standings have Texas finishing fourth in the conference with an 11-5 mark. As Contenders, they are expected to beat the Aggies at home, and win one of the two road games against Pretenders OU and Baylor. Oklahoma State is nearly two games back, checking in at a projected 9.5-6.5 — their odd number of road games against Pretenders results in a half-win total. That would seem to indicate that the Horns have a first-round bye all but locked up. But as Longhorn fans know, however, this team rarely makes the “easy” wins easy. The next four games for the Longhorns are absolutely critical. Tomorrow night’s matchup with Oklahoma State is not only huge because it is important to defend home court, but also because it provides one of the few chances left to secure a quality win. In addition, the Cowboys are only 1.5 games back of Texas coming into the contest and enjoy a significantly easier finish to the season. This weekend’s game against Baylor offers a great chance for Texas to take one of the road wins that are so critical in conference play. The Horns are only 5-6 in road/neutral games, and 4-4 when that is limited to true road contests. If Texas wants to have any margin for error as they come down the stretch, a win over the Bears is a must. I’d prefer not to sound like Chicken Little calling a third consecutive game a must-win, but next Tuesday’s tilt with Texas Tech does fall squarely into that category. Texas has the potential to lose their final three games of the regular season, so winning these next three would give them the mystical 20-win mark and a 10th win in conference play. Then the biggest challenges face the Longhorns, as they close out the year with games at Oklahoma, against A&M in Austin, and against the Jayhawks on their senior day in Lawrence. Winning any of these games would be a great boost, although I don’t personally hold out much hope at all for the KU tangle and also don’t feel a win over the Aggies in the future. That leaves the Longhorns with a reasonable shot at a 21-9 record, although finishing at 19-11 is just as possible. As for the rest of the conference, I’m limiting my synopsis to only those five other teams that I feel have a feasible chance to seal a first-round bye for the conference tournament. Texas A&M holds their destiny in their own hands the rest of the way, as they enjoy a one-game cushion over the Jayhawks and also hold the tiebreaker courtesy of their upset victory last Saturday. Their remaining road games are against the other big names in the B12 South, as they face OU (2/17), OSU (2/21), and the Horns (2/28) on the road before all is said and done. They would have to drop at least two of their remaining games to lose the conference title. Kansas sits in second place with a supremely talented squad and an extremely favorable sked. They could face challenges on the road in Manhattan and Norman when they take on Kansas State (2/19) and Oklahoma (2/26), but three games against B12 North bottom-feeders certainly help. If Kansas drops a game, they can likely kiss a conference title goodbye. Kansas State is currently in third place thanks to a road win over the Longhorns and a soft “North” schedule. Their finishing slate looks a bit rocky, however, and could put the Wildcats anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the final standings. A home win over Kansas (2/19) would certainly shake things up, but a finish at OSU (2/27) and home against the Sooners (3/3) looms large. This team is without a doubt the biggest wildcard in the standings down the stretch. They can show up and play with anybody in the league, or they can curl up and get skull-kicked by 27 against Kansas, as they did last week. One game behind the Wildcats and Longhorns are the Sooners. This team could finish strong by upsetting some of the big opponents left on their schedule, or they could absolutely tank and fall to the 6th/7th-place range when all is said and done. Oklahoma still must play A&M (2/17), Texas (2/24), and Kansas (2/26), but they get all three at home. The roadies at Mizzou (2/20) and K-State (3/3) will also definitely be a challenge. Checking in a half-game behind their cross-state rivals are the OSU Cowboys. The Cowboys have a chance to pick up a huge road win tomorrow night against the Horns, and still get Mizzou (2/17), Texas A&M (2/21), and K-State (2/27) at home. Although the Cowboys have yet to notch a conference road win, finishing at Baylor (3/3) and Nebraska (3/5) all but ensures that stat won’t last. Using my non-existant paranormal skills, here is how I see it shaking out: I’ll update this feature again next Sunday, when the picture surrounding those first-round byes may be slightly clearer. Oklahoma State preview coming at you by 10 A.M. |
