In 2002, ESPN’s Bill Simmons penned an epic column titled “The Levels of Losing.” In it, he outlined thirteen different types of losses suffered by teams and — more importantly — their fans. A 2007 update expanded the list out to 16 different levels of losing, ranking them from the pedestrian “Princeton Principle” to the most gut-wrenching level, saved only for Game 6 of the 1986 World Series.

Not far behind Bill Buckner’s gaffe is The Sports Guy’s third most-excruciating level of losing — “The Stomach Punch.” Simmons describes it as “any roller-coaster game that ends with (A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play or (B) one of your guys failing in the clutch…Usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all.”

Sound familiar, Texas fans?

Sunday’s loss to Arizona in the third round of the NCAA Tournament fit every letter of that description. From Derrick Williams’ improbable no-look and-1 bucket that gave Arizona the final lead, to numerous failures by Longhorn stars in the clutch, Longhorn Nation experienced a massive, unrelenting series of gut punches. We even have the stunned disbelief covered, as your intrepid travelers spent a good portion of the eight-hour drive back to Austin in that very state.

There have been a million words written and spoken about the five-second call that gave Arizona the ball for the winning possession. If you watched the game on television, you likely saw the studio discussions and 8,923 video replays. If you didn’t, feel free to use Google or YouTube — I won’t rehash the debate here. Right or wrong, that call isn’t the only reason Texas lost. As had happened multiple times this season, there was a glaring lack of basketball IQ when the game hung in the balance.

First, the entire five-count sequence was set up by Jordan Hamilton’s inexplicable timeout with 14 seconds left. The Longhorns had a two-point lead when Tristan Thompson blocked a potential game-tying shot from Williams. Hamilton grabbed the loose ball, and the game seemed to be in the bag. All Hamilton had to do was wait for the Arizona foul.

Jordan was a 77.9% free throw shooter this season. Against the Wildcats on Sunday, he was 1-for-2 from the line. If Jordan waits for the foul in that situation, more time ticks off the clock and he then has two opportunities to make it a three-point Longhorn lead. Make both of those, and it’s a two-possession ballgame. Instead, Texas had to inbound the ball against full-court pressure and an unthinkable chain of events was set in motion.

Even after the five-second violation, the Longhorns were still leading by two with 14 seconds to go. The fear in every Texas fan’s mind was that the Wildcats — who had hit 8-of-14 from behind the arc — would drill another three and win the game. But once Williams started driving to the basket, there seemed to be no way Texas could lose in regulation. Until, of course, Hamilton tried to take a charge.

If Hamilton defends the shot straight up and it goes in, the game is tied, but Texas still has the ball and some time to win it. If you want to contest the shot in that situation, you have to make sure you don’t foul, or make sure your foul counts.

Williams was 8-for-14 from the line at that point, so a hard foul not only would have prevented the game-tying basket, but also probably meant that Williams would not have tied it at the line, either. In trying to draw a charge, Hamilton not only let Williams get off a shot, but left the worst-case scenario on the table. That, of course, is exactly what occurred.

After the three-point play, the Longhorns were still left with about nine seconds to try to save a win despite their series of errors. But instead of pushing the ball up the floor, J’Covan Brown calmly walked it up the court, wasting close to five seconds just getting across the timeline. He drove to the right side of the lane, threw up a floater in traffic, and time expired as Gary Johnson fought for a putback.

If Brown races up the floor, the Arizona defense has less time to get set, plus the Longhorns have time to try for a rebound and game-winning putback. Instead, they were left wandering the floor after the final buzzer, arms raised in question as the officials huddled and decided whether or not a foul occurred.

It was a heartbreaking way to end the season, especially after the gritty way the Longhorns had fought back in the second half to finally reclaim the lead. But putting the loss solely at the feet of the officials is a shortsighted conclusion. As was the case in many tense situations this season, the Longhorns failed to make the right decisions. Unfortunately, it finally caught up with them.

The Texas Longhorns survived a scare on Friday to advance past Oakland in the second round of the NCAA tournament, but things won’t be any easier today. Their third-round match-up is a tough Arizona Wildcat team that won the Pac 10 regular-season title and lost in overtime in the championship of the post-season tournament.

A win would put the Longhorns through to the Sweet 16, a place they have been only once since 2005. In the first half of the decade, Texas was in elite company with Duke, West Virginia, and Pitt as the most frequent guests of the NCAA’s second weekend, but that now seems like a distant memory. The Longhorns will have to beat a formidable opponent this evening if they want to once again join that prestigious club.

By the numbers

Arizona has a highly efficient offense and a sound defense. The Wildcats are aggressive with the basketball, always looking to get to the rim. Their offense has constant movement, both off the ball and with the ball. As a result, Arizona is scoring 1.154 adjusted points per possession, making them 15th-best nationally in that metric.

Every starter can drive from the perimeter, so Arizona typically sets up with four players on the perimeter and one playing the high or low post. This great floor spacing gives extra room for their slashing guards and wings to attack the paint and get layups. If the post defender helps, the Wildcats have a wide open big man waiting for the dump-off. If perimeter defense collapses down to help, the Wildcats have a bevy of three-point shooters waiting to knock down the open look.

The one drawback to Arizona’s floor spacing is that they have a hard time grabbing offensive rebounds. With most of their players far from the rim, the Wildcats are only grabbing 32.9% of their misses, a number that is just slightly above the national average. If Texas can use their size to limit Arizona to even fewer offensive boards this evening, it could seriously cripple Arizona’s offense.

The Wildcats were the best three-point shooting team in Pac 10 play, and are the 11th most-deadly team behind the arc in Division I basketball. Arizona has made 39.6% of its long-range looks, and they take nearly 37% of their shots from behind the arc. As a team, the Wildcats average nearly 20 long-range attempts per game.

Defensively, Arizona doesn’t let teams have nearly as much success from beyond the arc. The Wildcats allow opponents to shoot just 29.1% from long range, good enough for 4th place in the national rankings. Texas is actually just percentage points better, allowing a 28.7% success rate.

The weakness for Arizona is interior defense. They allow teams to make more than 50% of their shots from inside the arc, and hardly ever block shots or steal the ball. They also rarely force opponent miscues, as their defensive turnover rate is only 18.9%, ranking them 254th out of 345 D-I schools.

Meet the Wildcats

Arizona is led by sophomore Derrick Williams, an all-around athlete that was named Pac 10 Player of the Year and is one of the 30 players on the Naismith Award midseason list. (Jordan Hamilton is also part of that revered group.) Last year, he was the Pac 10’s top freshman and led the team in both scoring and rebounding.

At 6’8″, Williams is a handful to contain. He’s averaging 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, and his points come in a variety of ways. Although he only attempts about two three-pointers per game, Williams has an insane 61% success rate behind the arc.

That long-range threat helps Williams when he’s matched up with big, lumbering defensive players. He can draw them out to the perimeter and easily take them off the dribble for buckets. In an early-season game against Kansas and the Morris twins, Williams scored 27 by slashing from the perimeter and getting points in the paint.

Against smaller defenders, the Wildcats love to isolate him in the post as a part of their four-out, one-in look, and Williams will take full advantage of the situation. When stationed at the high post, he can knock down the jumper or use his great handles to shake defenders and get an easy two.

In the backcourt, another sophomore keeps the Wildcat offense churning. Lamont “MoMo” Jones is the team’s point guard, but he’s much more scorer than simple assist man. Jones is a supremely confident, shifty guard who is second on the team with 9.8 points per game.

MoMo has a really quick release, so he doesn’t need any space to get off a shot. He’ll take a couple of rapid-fire threes in front of surprised defenders, and on the year he’s made 32.1% of his attempts. When Jones drives the lane, he’s incredibly elusive and manages to constantly finish ridiculous shots that often should be blocked.

Joining Jones in the backcourt is junior Kyle Fogg, who has been playing with a pulled quad the last two weeks. The injury limited him to just 13 minutes per game in the Pac 10 tournament, but he saw the floor for 23 minutes in the NCAA win over Memphis. The injury was just another setback for Fogg, who has had a serious run of bad luck in Tucson. Last year, he suffered a knee injury and even contracted H1N1 early in the season.

Fogg is not a guy who is going to score many points in most games, but when he does get hot — look out. Against Arizona State he made seven of 13 from beyond the arc, scoring 26 points to lead the ‘Cats to victory over their in-state rivals. He knocked down four three-pointers in four other conference games, and sunk three of them in four others. On the year, Fogg has knocked down 34.8% of his three-point attempts.

Sophomore Solomon Hill is a prototypical small forward who has started all 35 games this season, and he is averaging 7.8 points in 24.9 minutes per contest. Like most of the Wildcats, Hill is a strong 6’6″ guy who also has the ballhandling skills to slash from the wings and cause havoc inside. He’s also the team’s second-leading rebounder with 4.5 boards per game.

Junior Jesse Perry is another slashing wing for Coach Sean Miller, and he arrived in Tucson after transferring from a junior college in Saint Louis. At 6’7″, Perry gives the ‘Cats another long, athletic body that can play both inside and out, but his favorite shot is the mid-range jumper on the baseline. Like Hill, Perry provides some extra rebounding punch to help out Williams.

The sole senior on the roster is Jamelle Horne, who started 13 games for the Wildcats this season, but has settled into a role as the team’s sixth man. He is another big-time threat from long range, where he’s knocked down 40.6% of his attempts on the year. Despite playing just 18.5 minutes per game, Horne is second on the team in three-point attempts behind Fogg.

Also coming off the bench is Kevin Parrom, a 6’6″ sophomore who mirrors the rest of the Arizona roster with his ability to shoot from outside or create with the dribble-drive. He is 41.4% from behind the arc this season, but only averages 2.5 attempts per game.

Jordin Mayes is another long-range shooter on the Arizona bench, and he’s coming into this one with a hot hand. In his last three games, Mayes is 5-for-6 from behind the arc. If the Longhorns pay too much attention to Williams or overhelp on the drives from the wings, Mayes will definitely make them pay on kickouts.

While Sean Miller’s bench runs 10 deep, he has been cutting back on the minutes for Brendon Lavender and Kyryl Natyazhko in post-season play. Lavender is a catch-and-shoot guy who is averaging just seven minutes per game in the post-season.

Natyazhko is a 6’11” Ukranian who gives the ‘Cats some extra size inside, and he’s always working hard to set screens when he’s on the floor. Unfortunately, he is only averaging six minutes in four post-season games for Arizona.

Keys to the game

Just as it was against Oakland, the primary concern for Texas will be keeping Tristan Thompson and Jordan Hamilton out of foul trouble. Williams is the most-fouled player in the Pac 10, and his 88.9% free-throw rate is ninth in all of D-I basketball. He also draws nearly eight fouls per contest, so Texas will have to spread out the whistles to keep their starters in the game.

Defending Williams will be a challenge for Texas. Thompson cannot defend him on the perimeter and would often be beaten on Williams’ slashing attacks. Jordan Hamilton, meanwhile, is a perfect match-up in size and athleticism, but has had his share of defensive lapses this season. Gary Johnson gives up a few inches, but is athletic enough to stick with Williams on the dribble-drive. Of course, if Johnson is tasked with Williams, you can be sure Arizona will isolate him in the post.

While Arizona is a strong three-point shooting team, they have hit the skids recently. In the Pac 10 championship game, Arizona made just 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc, and ultimately lost to Washington in overtime. In their second round NCAA game against Memphis, the ‘Cats made just 26.3% from long range and struggled to knock off the Tigers. If Texas can contain Arizona’s three-point threat, the Wildcat offense becomes much less potent.

Although Texas isn’t a team that turns you over that often, the Longhorns will want to pressure the Arizona guards. This will help with the perimeter defense, and also can lead to some costly Wildcat turnovers. This young Arizona team has had seven different games with turnover rates north of 23%, so the Longhorns should be able to force mistakes. Late in games this season, the Wildcat guards have also had fits with full-court presses, particularly traps in the backcourt.

On offense, Texas needs to attack inside. We’ve already discussed the statistical gulf between Arizona’s perimeter and interior defense, but the Memphis game showed just how successful the Longhorns can be. The Tigers constantly drove baseline and found open layups or easy interior passes against the Arizona defense. For Hamilton and J’Covan Brown, that weakness on the baseline is excellent news.

Finally, Texas cannot dig a hole. The Wildcats are 26-2 this season when leading at halftime, and a big part of that is their success at the line. Arizona has made 75% of their free throws this year, while the Longhorns have stumbled to a 65% mark. If this is a close game in the final minutes, the edge would have to go to Arizona. The Longhorns need to be in control when the game comes down to the wire, or it could spell the end of their season.

Texas slid to 17th in the Coaches Poll following their home loss to Kansas State. Meanwhile, Kansas cracked the rankings once again at 24th, giving the Big 12 three teams for the first time since Baylor hit the skids. Oklahoma still leads the way for the conference with its No. 2 berth, having grabbed three first-place votes in this week’s poll.

The Longhorns are a spot higher in the Associated Press rankings, checking in at 16th. The Jayhawks also enjoyed a gaudier review from the media folks, who slotted at No. 21. Following Duke’s loss, the AP was more split than the coaches when it came to which team is truly the best team in the nation. The writers not only gave OU five nods, but also included UNC in the discussion with three first-place votes of their own.

Is Bob Knight making his way back into the coaching ranks? Reports have confirmed his interest in the newly-vacated office at Georgia, where players are excited about the possibility. Since the story first broke, Knight has only admitted that he would return in the right situation. If The General is truly ready to come back, will Georgia truly be his destination? Arizona will be looking to make a splash with their next hire, while SI.com’s FanNation points out that Gary Williams might be on the way out at Maryland. There are going to be a number of high-profile gigs out there, and those of us at LRT certainly hope Coach Knight decides to take one.

The domino rally is underway in the coaching ranks, with Indiana’s huge vacancy being filled yesterday afternoon. But the hiring of Tom Crean in Bloomington means there’s another position open at Marquette, while the resignation of prolific perspirer Sean Sutton means it’s time for another job posting in Stillwater.

Head spinning with all of the coaching changes? Never fear, as LRT is here to keep track of everything for you.

Oklahoma State
Within hours of Sutton’s resignation, both Bill Self of Kansas and Billy Gillispie of Kentucky stated that they had no interest in coaching the Cowboys. Both men’s names had been floated for a few months in online rumors involving the very deep pockets of OSU booster T. Boone Pickens. At this point, brother Scott Sutton would be a reasonable choice to continue the family line, but many feel that Pickens is looking for a big splash with the next hire. Could Kevin O’Neill be in the mix considering that he will not be returning to the Arizona staff?

Rice
One place that Kevin O’Neill has interviewed is Rice University in Houston. While the Owls are certainly not a high profile gig, C-USA is a huge league with a very short list of quality teams. With the right hire, the Owls could quickly make some noise. Athletic Director Chris Del Conte worked in the Arizona athletic department and is apparently keen on the head AD position with the Wildcats in the near future, according to the Houston Chronicle‘s Moisekapenda Bower. This could mean that hiring O’Neill would earn Del Conte some points with the former employers, which might put Olson’s ex-assistant ahead of Belmont’s Rick Byrd and assistants Rodney Terry (Texas) and Mark Montgomery (Michigan State).

Louisiana State
While LSU has had more than an extra month to prepare for their coaching search, the Tigers played things close to the vest through the end of the season. But even with the lack of info coming from official sources, the media seems to be keyed in on three top candidates. Butch Pierre finished the season as interim coach and has expressed interest in the job, although former LSU player Johnny Jones has found a ton of success at North Texas and would love to work in Baton Rouge. Early press reports focused on VCU head man Anthony Grant, but he lacks the ties to the program that Pierre and Jones sport.

Oregon State
There’s nowhere to go but up for Jay John’s successor, thanks to an abysmal 6-26 season including the first 0-17 conference record in Pac-10 history. Interim coach Kevin Mouton was responsible for the last 11 of those losses and is reportedly not a candidate for the job. The Beaver brass seems to be focusing on WCC coaches at the moment, interviewing San Diego’s Bill Grier and expressing interest in St. Mary’s head man Randy Bennett.

California
The other vacancy in the Pac-10 is at Cal’s Berkeley campus, where sights seem to be set quite high…perhaps a little too high. The Bears reportedly want Pitt’s Jamie Dixon and Washington State’s Tony Bennett, although Dixon has spurned those advances. The San Francisco Chronicle and San Jose Mercury-News are offering differing takes on Bennett’s interest in the job, but both agree that Nuggets assistant Mike Dunlap is also a top candidate.

Marquette
With Crean moving on to Indiana today, the newest big-name vacancy on the block is in Milwaukee. As the move will not even be announced until 10 A.M. today in Bloomington, a list of top candidates is still being formulated somewhere in the caverns of the Marquette athletic department. But in a statement released on Monday, the Golden Eagles top staffers believe “a Marquette coaching vacancy will attract many well-qualified candidates.” We’re inclined to agree, and will be eagerly watching the newswire over the next few days to see which names pop up.

Other notable coaching vacancies include those at Kent State, Providence, San Francisco, and Western Kentucky. Kent State lost coach Jim Christian to TCU, while the Hilltoppers were left without a coach on Monday when Darrin Horn departed to fill the South Carolina vacancy following his team’s Sweet 16 run. At San Fran, Eddie Sutton has maintained all season that he was only coaching the Dons on an interim basis, so it will be interesting to see what angle they take in the coming weeks.

We’ll be watching the coaching carousel closely this off-season, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.

Luke Winn has a great Q&A with Ian Mooney in his tourney blog. Amongst the highlights are the locker room pranks, Dexter Pittman’s poor sense of geography, and Mooney’s future as the Texas point guard. Check, check, check it out.

Lute Olson is now back as the Arizona coach in a full-time capacity, and he gave an exclusive telephone interview to ESPN’s Andy Katz. If Coach Olson is correct about how many of his players will return next season, the state of Arizona is going to be a basketball powerhouse. The ASU/’Zona series could quickly gain traction as a top-flight rivalry with national implications.

In coaching news a little closer to home, on Thursday Jeff Capel signed a three-year extension with Oklahoma. Capel — whose name had been floated in the South Carolina coaching search — will also enjoy a $300,000 raise per season, bringing his total compensation above the one-million dollar mark. It looks like fans in Norman will get to enjoy angry stares and pouting sessions for years to come.

And you thought the Aggies hated the Longhorns? I’m sure that anyone reading this page has seen the Sheraton commercial where fans from nasty rivalries share elevators, computers, and even chicken wings. But you may have been confused by the juxtaposition of Lousville and Memphis, rather than the Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats. But according to UK assistant athletic director Jason Schlafer, the Wildcats were asked first, but declined citing no prior relationship with Sheraton hotels. Or perhaps just an unquenchable fire of hate for the school just down the road?

If you just can’t wait for this evening’s Elite 8 games to start, the tubes of the interweb have more than enough content to hold you over. Luke Winn previews and predicts the Elite 8 games, while the folks at Rush the Court take a more detailed look at today’s doubleheader. But March Madness All Season breaks it down the most, with in-depth looks at both Carolina/Louisville in the East and UCLA/Xavier from the West region.