With Kansas winning at Missouri and Texas A&M knocking off Tech at home, the top four seeds in the Big 12 tournament are already decided. The Jayhawks have claimed their seventh-straight conference championship with a 14-2 league record, and for the fourth time during that run, Kansas has earned sole possession of the conference crown. A&M’s victory locked them into the 3-seed, while resurgent Kansas State is now the league’s fourth-place team. The Longhorns, who opened league play with a sparkling 11-0 mark, are now guaranteed to finish in second place thanks to a 1-3 mark in their last four games.

While that means Texas has nothing to play for in terms of conference seeding, the Horns still have the NCAA tournament to worry about. Their recent slide has eliminated any hopes of securing a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, and another loss tonight could end their tenuous hold on a 2-seed. Baylor, meanwhile, is still one of the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket projection at ESPN. Like Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas State before them, the Bears will be desperate for a résumé-building win over Texas.

The first meeting

After Texas had won their first nine league games by double-digits, the Baylor Bears finally ended that streak in the season’s first meeting between the two teams. The Longhorns sprinted out to an early lead, which grew to 19 at one point in the first half. Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn made things interesting, though, scoring 22 points in the second half to get the Bears within three points in the final minutes. The Longhorns managed to ice things at the line, and escaped with a 69-60 win.

Tristan Thompson was the headliner for Texas, posting a double-double with 17 points and 13 boards. He even blocked three Baylor shots, and managed to outshine vaunted freshman Perry Jones III in a head-to-head battle. For the Bears, Dunn’s 26-point outburst led the way, with Jones’ 13 point performance the only other double-digit scoring output on the team.

Since then…

Since their impressive comeback fell just short against the Longhorns, the Bears have been something of a bi-polar team. I’d love to work in a timely joke about how Baylor has been bi-winning, but the fact of the matter is that they have had some very questionable losses over the last month.

Although the Bears completed a season sweep of Texas A&M with a win on Saturday night, they lost all three of their other conference games since facing Texas in Austin. Those losses included a head-scratching defeat to Texas Tech in Waco and a meltdown in the second half against Oklahoma State on Wednesday night. Perhaps they just needed more tiger blood.

Meet the Bears

For an in-depth look at the Baylor players and statistics, please read the preview from this season’s first meeting.

Keys to the game

While the offensive numbers have been ugly for Jordan Hamilton over the last two-plus weeks, his defense has been just as bad. In his final 2011 edition of the Power Rankings, SI’s Luke Winn published an excellent set of screenshots from the debacle in Colorado that underscored just how mercurial Hamilton’s defensive effort can be.

Without a doubt, Hamilton must bounce back for the Longhorns to win on the road tonight. He simply must improve the 30.6% shooting mark he has posted in the last five games, especially when you consider how Texas also suffers on the defensive end when his shot isn’t falling. Even if Hamilton is struggling from the floor, he has to remain mentally checked in on D against a loaded Baylor roster.

In addition, Texas needs to remain active on the glass. They did an excellent job in the first game, holding Baylor to a 23.8% mark on the offensive glass. Against the tall, talented frontline from Waco, that dominant of a performance was completely unexpected. While we aren’t holding our breath for a repeat of that performance tonight, if Texas can at least limit Baylor’s second chances, it will keep them in the game even when their own shots aren’t falling.

Finally, the Longhorn offense can’t grind to a halt. The first time these two teams played, Texas had one stretch of more than six minutes without a field goal. In the team’s recent losses to Colorado and Kansas State, they had similar droughts from the field.

Texas cannot allow their offense to devolve into four players standing around while Hamilton or J’Covan Brown make ill-advised drives from the corner that result in ugly, challenged shots. The Longhorns must get back to what worked for them earlier in the season, with motion off the ball and post players who could make the quick pass when defenses collapsed. If they can’t, the Texas offense will once again look like it has in the last two-plus weeks, and the Horns will likely be looking at another Saturday road loss to yet another bubble team.

After the first twenty minutes of Saturday’s game, it looked like the Longhorns were well on their way to another double-digit rout of a conference opponent. Texas held Baylor to just 0.64 points per possession in the first half, well off their season mark of 1.095, while the Longhorns knocked down more than 53% of their shots. Texas built a lead as large as 19 points and headed to the locker room up by 16.

Things changed rather quickly. LaceDarius Dunn scored 22 points in the second half, while Texas endured a painful stretch of 6:18 without a field goal. The Longhorns also left points on the line, making just six of 11 free throw attempts during the field-goal drought, allowing Baylor to hang around until the final minutes. The Bears were able to trim the lead down to just three points with 2:06 to play, but Texas ultimately iced the game with six free throws down the stretch.

The victory moves the Longhorns to a perfect 10-0 in Big 12 play, still just one game ahead of a Jayhawk team that waxed Iowa State in Lawrence on Saturday. With only six games left to play, even the slightest slip-up by Texas will practically guarantee Kansas a share of the conference championship. There are few games left on the Jayhawks’ schedule that look like possible losses, so it is becoming increasingly likely that the Horns must run the table to secure an outright Big 12 title. Even though this victory ended Texas’ nine-game run of double-digit conference wins, at this point all that matters are the Ws.

What looked good

A big part of Texas’ stifling first-half defense was a dominant effort on the glass. The Longhorns allowed Baylor to reclaim just 22.2% of their misses in the first half, limiting them to only a handful of second-chance opportunities. That strong effort continued in the second half, as the Bears finished with a 23.8% mark on the offensive glass. If not for Dunn’s impressive second half, the Baylor offense still would have been on lockdown.

The overall defensive effort was incredibly impressive for the Longhorns, especially considering how outsized they were in the post. Even with Dunn going off in the second half, the Bears managed just 0.843 points per possession on the afternoon. The Bears had only been held below 0.900 PPP one other time all season, in a neutral-site loss to Gonzaga back in December.

On offense, Texas did a great job of attacking the Baylor zone in the first half. The team knocked down their open jumpers and made quick passes for easy looks inside. Texas’ zone offense was so good, the Bears actually switched to their hardly-used man-to-man defense in the second half and settled for a hack attack inside defensively.

Texas’ execution against the zone was a welcome sight after a few seasons in which the team has struggled mightily against even average zone defenses. Rather than settle for outside looks as they would have in past years, Texas put on a clinic on how to attack the zone, and it worked to the tune of 38 first-half points.

For the Longhorns, the MVP was freshman Tristan Thompson, who was a beast inside. He blocked three shots, scored 17 points, and grabbed 13 rebounds, eight of which came on the offensive end. Unfortunately, he had his typical 50% performance at the line, knocking down just 7-of-14 on the afternoon.

Thompson’s impact was biggest in the final minutes of the game, as the Longhorns struggled to hold off Baylor. He knocked down a pair free throws to put Texas up five with 94 seconds left, then batted a Baylor lob pass out of bounds on the following possession, preventing an easy layup for the Bears.

What needed work

Part of what caused the Texas drought in the second half was poor shooting just feet from the rim. Time and again, layups and short jumpers rimmed out, allowing Baylor to slowly chip away at the Texas lead. It is easy to chalk these kinds of misses up to bad luck, but luck or not, the Longhorns simply have to convert when they are that close to the basket.

For the Horns, the 0.969 points they scored per possession was their lowest offensive output since the Michigan State game. While that’s not a terrible number, the strong first half for Texas buoyed that average, masking just how abysmal the second half was. During the final twenty minutes, the Longhorns managed just 0.795 points each time down the floor.

A big part of that offensive ineptitude was terrible free throw shooting. While that’s nothing new for this Texas team, their inability to hit the easy ones when they counted the most nearly allowed Baylor to come back for an improbable win. As previously mentioned, Thompson was the biggest offender with his 50% effort at the line, but the problem was team-wide. J’Covan Brown, normally one of the team’s steadiest free-throw shooters, hit just 4-of-7, including 2-of-4 after Baylor had been tagged with an intentional foul and technical foul.

If the Longhorns are truly the national title contender that many pundits think they are, we must bring up the cautionary tale of the 2008 Memphis Tigers. That team was just 61.4% from the line on the season, and their poor shooting down the stretch in the national championship game allowed Kansas to force overtime and ultimately win the title. One can’t help but think a similar fate is in store for Texas at some point in March if they cannot improve their 64.7% mark at the line.

On defense, the backcourt assignments were interesting. Shutdown artist Dogus Balbay was primarily assigned to A.J. Walton, while freshman Cory Joseph had the tough task of stopping Dunn. Despite the 26-point outburst by Baylor’s superstar, you can’t really knock Joseph for how he defended him. LaceDarius drilled multiple threes with Joseph just inches away from him, and he managed to sink quite a few layups and runners after making acrobatic finishes among the Texas bigs.

The defense on Dunn certainly isn’t something that “needed work.” After all, he scored just four points in the first half before his superhuman effort in the second stanza. But, unfortunately the dichotomy of our post-games doesn’t really allow for a better place for this note. You simply have to applaud Joseph for his effort and tip your hat to Dunn on an impressive performance.

Up next: vs. Oklahoma State (16-8 overall, 4-6 Big 12)

As Texas has made its march through the first month of the Big 12 season, the Longhorns have exorcised a few of their recent demons. The team earned the first win in school history at Allen Fieldhouse, then ended a six-year losing streak to Texas A&M at Reed Arena. This afternoon, the Horns can end yet another skid as they host the Baylor Bears.

After beating the Bears 24 consecutive times, the Longhorns have dropped four straight to Baylor, including a three-game sweep last season. That Baylor team went on to the Elite Eight, coming within just minutes of a Final Four berth before falling to Duke in Houston. This year’s team is a decidedly different group of players, and the odds seem to be in Texas’ favor this time around.

The Bears started the season with a lot of buzz, based on the arrival of stud freshman Perry Jones III and the return of sharpshooter LaceDarius Dunn, who will likely be the Big 12’s all-time scoring leader by the end of the season.

Unfortunately, the Bears have stumbled through the first few months of the season, losing three neutral-site games in non-conference play before bumbling through a 3-3 start in the Big 12. Baylor has since won three of four, and now actually find themselves in third place in the conference.

By the numbers

Scott Drew and the Bears play a bit slower than the national average, working in just 66.4 possessions per ballgame. A big reason for this is their standard 2-3 zone, which forces opponents to take longer each possession to find an open look. The Baylor offense is also a bit slow, as the team can often go stagnant for long stretches as Dunn works to get open and the other four guys stand and watch.

The one number that sticks out for Baylor is an abnormally high turnover percentage. The Bears cough it up on 23.8% of their possessions, a stat that is so poor, it puts them 315th nationally out of 345 teams. Fortunately for Baylor, the stout Texas defense isn’t one that forces many turnovers, so they won’t see excessive pressure from the Longhorns this afternoon. If Baylor does turn it over a bunch against Texas, it’s likely the result of their own carelessness.

The Bears are also a great rebounding team, thanks to one of the longest frontcourts in the nation. They claim 37.3% of the offensive rebounding chances they have, while limiting opponents to just a 29.1% success rate on their own offensive board opportunities. In pure numbers, Baylor is posting a +6.6 rebounding margin per game.

However, in their four conference losses, Baylor’s offensive rebounding percentage was 32.4% or lower. In four of the five wins, it was 37% or higher. Only Wednesday’s narrow win over Nebraska came on a night with poor offensive rebounding, with the Bears reclaiming just 28.3% of their misses.

Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma also grabbed a ton of their own misses when they beat the Bears. Both Kansas schools had offensive board percentages north of 46%, while OU — a team that is typically terrible on the glass — grabbed nearly 38% of their own misses.

Meet the Bears

Baylor employs a very small, but talented rotation. Four of the five starters average 32 minutes or more, while Anthony Jones plays at least 29 minutes per night. The bench only runs three deep, but all of the Baylor reserves are skilled role players who make the most of their minutes.

The big name on Baylor’s roster is senior LaceDarius Dunn, who has one of the best shots in college basketball. He will absolutely kill you if you leave him open behind the arc, where he’s made 41.8% of his attempts this season. He’s also averaging more than 20 points per game, including an impressive 18 points per game against conference opponents.

Without Tweety Carter on the Baylor roster, defenses are keying more on Dunn this season. As a result, the Bears are having to work harder setting screens off the ball to free up their sharpshooter. In addition, Dunn has improved his floater and midrange game, which makes it much more of a gamble for opponents to play in his shirt on the perimeter.

Replacing Carter in the backcourt is point guard A.J. Walton, who is doing a good job feeding Dunn and the Baylor bigs. Walton has an eye-popping assist rate of 29.3%, good enough for 102nd in the country according to stat guru Ken Pomeroy. He also has exceptionally quick hands on defense, and leads the Big 12 with 22 steals in 10 conference games. Just like Dunn, Walton is a player that can’t be left alone behind the arc, where he is making 43.1% of his attempts.

Down low, the 6’7″ Quincy Acy is a force to be reckoned with. Although he’s not going to take anybody off the dribble, and more than half of his career field goals are dunks, he repeatedly finds a way to get open down low or sprint for an easy lob. Just ask the Longhorns, who Acy scored 24 points against in Waco last March. Of his 12 buckets in that game, 10 were throwdowns.

Acy is also one of Baylor’s big rebounders, grabbing 7.5 boards per game and 6.8 rebounds per game in Big 12 play. While he’s not the shot blocker that Ekpe Udoh was for the Bears last year, Acy does lead the team with 36 blocks, and he’s constantly altering shots when opponents drive the lane.

The other main rebounder for Baylor is freshman stud Perry Jones III. He’s averaging seven boards a night to go with 14.6 points, and he’s slotted in the top five of practically every NBA mock draft. At 6’11”, PJ3 has played every position in his career, so he’s a versatile threat with great handles, a smooth midrange jumper, and superior athleticism. He’s a tough matchup for 99% of the basketball world, so Texas will have to work very hard to contain him this afternoon.

Anthony Jones is another big man for Baylor, checking in at 6’10”. Although he’s adept at scoring inside, the junior has no problem stepping out beyond the perimeter and knocking down a triple. Defensively, he’s another long body on that back line of Baylor’s 2-3 zone that makes it tough to penetrate or get open looks in the corner.

Off the bench, speedy freshman guard Stargell Love has made a quick impact even though he suffered a stress fracture in his foot back in December. He’s able to split the point guard duties with Walton, but is more of a combo guard who can knock down the three or score inside the arc. He has a wicked pull-up jumper, made even more deadly by just how quickly he can drive the basketball. Although Love is averaging just 12.8 minutes and 2.3 points per game, he is going to be a big star in the near future.

Junior Fred Ellis is a swingman out of California who has already earned his Bachelors and is currently in grad school. He’s a pretty stout 6’6″ guy who scraps for loose balls and rebounds, and generally just provides smart minutes off the bench. (Smart minutes aren’t too surprising, coming from this Doogie Howser of the hardwood.) His 3.9 points and 2.3 rebounds in roughly 17 minutes a game aren’t going to set any box scores ablaze, but he’ll definitely make an impact this afternoon on a handful of plays.

Dallas product J’mison Morgan transferred to Baylor after a season at UCLA, and he gives Coach Drew another big body off the bench to sub into that dominating back line. He’s started six of the team’s conference games, while Acy has been relegated to the sixth man role, so he might be in the starting five tonight. Whether it’s as reserve or starter, the 6’11” Morgan makes it difficult for opponents to get easy looks inside, but isn’t much of a threat on the offensive end.

Keys to the game

The Longhorns can make things very difficult on Baylor today if they get out to a fast start. The Bears managed just 18 points in the first half of a loss against Kansas State, and scored only 21 first-half points against Colorado before storming back late for a victory.

Baylor’s preference for the zone defense means that a big first-half lead is hard for them to overcome. The zone gives them less possessions to work their comeback magic, unless they choose to go to their weaker man-to-man D. Then, they run the risk of letting the opponent score too often to be able to mount any comeback.

To beat that Baylor zone, Texas needs Gary Johnson to knock down the jumpers. He’s the most-efficient mid-range shooter for the Longhorns, so if he can get it going from the soft middle of the zone, things will really open up for Texas.

Baylor has had some major issues this season sliding quickly enough in their zone, leaving the baseline wide open on cuts. If Gary is knocking down the free-throw line J and forcing the Bears to jump out on him, Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson should have a lot of open looks cutting along the baseline.

The Longhorn defense must also be sure to pick its poison this afternoon. It’s practically impossible to shut down Dunn, as he proved in Wednesday night’s win over Nebraska. After scoring just four points in the first half, LaceDarius poured in 20 in the second half, powering his team to a win over the Huskers.

Unfortunately for Baylor, Dunn likely can’t beat Texas by himself. And by the same token, PJ3 and Acy also can’t beat the Horns on their own. If Texas sells out to stop Dunn or to limit the inside scoring from the Bears, it’s unlikely the resulting one-dimensional Baylor attack can manage a win.

Finally, as we mentioned above, keeping Baylor off the glass is a surefire way to earn a W over the Bears. If Texas wins the rebounding battle, the numbers indicate that this Baylor team will have a very tough time pulling off the road upset.

This is the third match-up this year between the Bears and Longhorns, so fans should be well-acquainted with what both teams bring to the table. If not, you’ll want to revisit the game preview from the first meeting. If you are familiar with the Bears, let’s jump right into what will matter when the game tips in roughly three hours.

1) Who will win the turnover battle? – It seems like quite a simple key to the game, but turnovers have truly been the difference in the series this season. At the Frank Erwin Center, Texas played a fairly ugly game that they would have won if not for a putback just milliseconds before the buzzer. The reason the Longhorns were still in that position was that the Bears coughed it up 20 times on the afternoon.

On Saturday, however, Baylor was the perfect example of steady ball control. While Texas had 18 turnovers and gave up what seemed like 108 fast break points, the Bears had just eight turnovers of their own. These are two very good teams with very little differential in talent. Something as glaring as a -10 turnover margin will certainly spell doom for the Longhorns tonight.

2) Can the Texas frontcourt score against Baylor? – The lengthy, athletic Baylor defense makes it very, very difficult for opponents to score. With Dexter Pittman often struggling to finish at the rim and with the lack of an explosive ballhandler in the backcourt, the Longhorns could find it very difficult to pile up the points tonight. Fortunately, Gary Johnson has had a string of great games down the stretch, including a 25-point, 8-rebound performance against Baylor on Saturday.

Whether it’s Pittman, Johnson, or another workmanlike night from Damion James, the Longhorns simply must score inside against Baylor’s solid 2-3 zone. If they fail to do so and rely on three-pointers and long-range Js, chance are slim that the Horns can survive to the semifinals.

3) Do the Longhorns know how to prevent an alley-oop? – As facetious as this question is, it certainly needs to be asked. Texas conceded approximately 72 rim-rattling alley-oops to Baylor on Saturday, and even allowed two more against the Cyclones last night. Quincy Acy — a man whose only reliable shots are dunks and layups — scored 24 points for Baylor in their win on Saturday. There is almost no chance for Texas to win if they give up that many easy buckets again tonight.

Post-game react will be headed your way in the morning, but for in-game updates from tonight’s quarterfinals, you can follow LRT on Twitter.

As Big 12 play heads into its final day, there is absolutely nothing that is settled. Outside of four seeds — No. 1 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 11 Iowa State, and No. 12 Nebraska — everything is up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. For the Longhorns, there still remains the possibility of the No. 4 seed and the first-round bye that goes with it. Of course, a loss this afternoon means that Texas is locked into the 6-seed and will open the tournament with Iowa State late on Wednesday night.

If Texas does happen to beat Baylor this afternoon, things get a little more interesting. If the Longhorns win and the Aggies lose to the Sooners in a game that is currently underway, Texas would ascend to the No. 4 seed, with Baylor and A&M following up in 5th and 6th. If Texas wins, but the Aggies also win, the Longhorns clinch the No. 5 seed and Baylor takes No. 6.

Of course, none of that matters if the Longhorns lose today, so the team must build on their strong showing in Monday night’s win over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Baylor and their imposing frontcourt provide a very big challenge for the Longhorns to overcome in pursuit of that goal. If you’re not familiar with the Bears or their style of play, you’ll want to check out our brief preview from the first time these two teams met.

Despite horrid free throw shooting, Texas was within milliseconds of a victory over the Bears in that game. But after Ekpe Udoh airballed the game-winning three-point attempt, an Anthony Jones putback with 0.3 seconds on the clock sent the game into overtime. Baylor pulled ahead in the extra five minutes, and escaped with a three-point win as Avery Bradley‘s game-tying attempt clanged off the iron at the buzzer.

Check back Sunday evening for post-game reaction, or follow us on Twitter for in-game updates from the Ferrell Center.